SB Nation User Blog: paqs

DBack to the Future - Minor League Report

paqs — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 21:22:33 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Bryan Augenstein was just one of the prospects who pitched well this week.

I was thinking, if I were a baseball fan in Reno, I would not be a happy man. At the beginning of the season, eight of the top ten prospects in the Diamondback system were below AAA, Valdez and Buckner being the exceptions. A Reno fan would naturally have assumed they'll get to see some of these prospects this year or even next. Well, so far this year, no less than 5 players were called up to the majors straight from AA. The same thing happened with Reynolds and Upton two years ago. To make things even worse for Reno fans, the GM said the other day something along the lines of "Parker will stay at AA this year, and pitch for a spot in the rotation next spring". I don't have the stats, but this skipping of a development stage can't be very good. Anyway, on to this week's report.

Reno:

The Aces went 3-5 last week and are currently on a 4 game losing streak. Their 23-30 record is good for third place in the division, 9.5 games back.

At the plate:

Alex Romero keeps hitting well, going 10-25 with 5 walks for the week to improve his line to .340/.412/.470
Ruben Gotay has been hot of late, going 9-23 with 7 walks this week. His line is .289/.404/.425.

On the mound:

Cesar Valdez had his best start of the season on Friday, throwing 8 shutout innings, allowing only two hits and a walk along with six strikeouts. His ERA in six May starts was 3.09 and his overall ERA is at 4.21.
Bryan Augenstein had a "quality" (the dumbest stat alive) start this week, going six innings and allowing 3 runs. He now has 10 strikeouts and only one walk in 12 AAA innings.
Jason Urquidez was called up from AA (that happens as well) last week and he has impressed so far. He allowed 2 runs in 7 innings of work, with 5 strikeouts and a walk. He threw 20 innings in mobile with a 3.15 ERA, 20 strikeouts and 6 walks.

Mobile:

The Bears have been white hot of late, having a nine game winning streak stopped on Monday. In all, they went 5-2 this week to improve their record to 32-22, 3.5 games behind first place.

At the plate:

Cyle Hankerd just keeps hitting. He went 7-18 with six walks to improve to .363/.435/.531. He is the league top three in OPS and wOBA. I wonder at what point is enough enough when it comes to Chris Young. Does he need to hit .170 over 500 AB to get benched or demoted?
Chris Rahl is another outfielder doing well, going 12-29 on the week, with 4 multi hit games. His line for the year is .293/.380/.471
Orlando Mercado has 6 multi hit games in his last ten, and he's hitting .323/.408/.451 on the year.
Pedro Ciriaco has improved his hitting since he was moved to the top of the order. He went 9-30 this week, but his line is still a mess: .261/.294/.320. He does have 11 stolen being, and was caught only twice.

On the mound:

Matt Torra threw a complete game three hitter on Sunday, walking just one and striking out four. Add that to his last outing, and he now threw 16 scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 4.04. He was named the league's pitcher of the week.
Cody Evans flirted with perfection yesterday, taking a perfect game into the seventh inning. His final line: 7 IP, 1H, 0BB, 4K and his ERA on the season is 4.58.
Jarrod Parker's start this week was more of the same: 6 innings, two runs allowed, but he walked four again, and he has 20 walks and 20 strikeouts in his last four starts (20.2 IP). The GM said he needs to learn how to be economical with his pitches and we're just not seeing that of late. His ERA in 36 IP is 3.00, but major league hitters are going to punish those walk severely.

Visalia:

The Rawhide were 4-2 during the week and 33-19 record leads the division by three games.

At the plate:

Not a good week for Visalia hitter, and I couldn't find anyone with an above average line

On the mound:

Bryan Shaw started two games last week, allowing a combined one run over 11 innings, with three walks and seven strikeouts. His ERA on the year is down to 4.43.
Josh Collmenter took the mound twice last week, with impressive results. He followed a complete game on Wednesday (1 ER, 7K) with 5 scoreless innings on Monday. In his last three outings, he has allowed one run in 21 innings with four walks and 15 strikeouts.

South Bend

The Hawks went 3-3 on the week and they are at .500 for the season, at 25-25, 6.5 games back of the lead.

At the plate:

Alberto Diaz is on a 10 game hitting streak, going 8-25 and adding 2 home runs to lead the team with 7. His line on the season is a pedestrian .246/.284/.399.
Justin Parker was 6-19 with 4 walks on the week to improve his line to .312/.401/.439

On the mound:

Brett Moorehouse had two starts this week, and they were both good. He threw seven innings on Thursday, allowing three runs on 9 hits with 1 strikeout, and another seven innings on Tuesday, allowing only one run on five hits with seven strikeouts. He didn't walk a batter in either start.
Randy Rodriguez began his season in mid May due to injury, but his first four starts have been good. He allowed 5 earned runs in 23.1 innings for a 1.91 ERA.

That's all for this week's report. It should be a very interesting week for our system with the draft, so we'll see what happens next.

DBack To The Future - A Minor League Report

paqs — Thu, 21 May 2009 14:25:19 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Gerardo Parra has been smoking hot since his promotion from AA. But who will be the next player to follow him to the show?

Browse more photos »

As you take your time recovering from an amazing double header (hey, at least you didn't stay up all night to watch it), I'm pleased to bring you a minor league report. It's been a while since the last one, but the minors aren't that interesting when most of your best prospects are already playing in the bigs. In light of that, this might be a bit shorter than usual (on second thought, no it won't). In order to be as short as possible, I'll be using wOBA+ and tRA+ a lot. Basically, they are good true talent measures, and they are normalized (tRA+ and wOBA+ of 100 is league average, 150 is 50% better than league average, etc.). If you need more info, I'll get into it in the comments. I'll start with Reno.

Reno

The Aces are struggling. They are 2-10 in their last 12 games, and 15-24 overall, good for last place. The runs have dried since Whitesell got called up and Murillo got banned for using steroids, and the Aces have scored 5 runs in their last 4 games. Well, Whitesell should be back tonight, hopefully not for long, as I'm sure he can hit major league pitching, 26 at-bats with a BABIP of .150 notwithstanding.

At the plate:

Alex Romero is hitting .318/.387/.450 for a wOBA+ of 111 and I wouldn't mind seeing him come up for a bit. Even if he's as poor as he was for us last year, it'll be a big upgrade over Chris Young.
Chris Roberson is hitting .262/.330/.456 (wOBA+ of 107) and leads the team with 4 home runs.
Luke Carlin (104), John Hester (103), Trent Oeltjen (101), Ruben Gotay (99), Brandon Watson (97) and Rusty Ryal (97) have all been close to league average in wOBA.

On the mound:

Billy Buckner, who will get called up to start for the DBacks tomorrow, has pitched well in his last three starts, allowing 3 earned runs in 16.1 innings with 16 strikeouts and 7 walks to lower his ERA to 3.81 on the year. His tRA+ as a starter is 129, good for 12th in the PCL. Incidentally, the best tRA+ in the league belongs to Evan MacLane, who we traded earlier this season. Let's hope we don't get to regret this.
After a terrible start to the year, our reigning minor league pitcher of the year, Cesar Valdez, was good in his last two starts, allowing 2 earned runs over 11.1 innings. His 5.45 ERA is nothing to write home about, but in an extreme hitters league, he is above average, as his tRA+ (104) shows.
LHP Travis Blackley is showing signs of life since he was shifted to the bullpen, allowing 4 runs in 12 innings, with 12 strikeouts and only two walks.
Tony Barnette (tRA+ of 95), Hector Ambriz (77) and Seth Etherton (68) complete the Reno rotation.
Bobby Korecky (151) and Doug Slaten (147) rank among the league leading bullpen arms in tRA.
Jose Marte (86), Josh Ellis (68), Jon Coutlangus (41) and Abe Woody (35) are varying degrees of terrible.

Mobile

Things are not looking any better in Mobile. Since Parra and Augenstein got promoted, they had a six game losing streak, and their record stands at 22-18, 5 games back of first place. The pitching is still a strength, and as you're about to see, Hankerd is a one man wrecking crew.

At the plate:

OF Cyle Hankerd is not showing any signs of letting up, hitting .358/.429/.533 and his wOBA+ of 129 is 7th in the league and a little bit better than what Parra was doing before his callup. He might actually be the best choice should we send Young down, considering how well Parra has adjusted.
C Orlando Mercado is hitting .307/.386/.427 with a wOBA+ of 113, second in the league among catchers.
3B Ricardo Sosa (109) and OF Chris Rahl (107) have been productive, while James Skelton (93), Evan Frey (92), Mark Hallberg (82), Yunesky Sanchez (81), Pedro Ciriaco (75) and Peter Clifford (64) have been disappointing.

On the mound:

Jarrod Parker has no problems with AA hitters, with a 2.66 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 20.1 IP. His tRA+ of 131 is among the league leaders.
Wes Roemer, who replaced Augenstein in the rotation, has a 2.45 ERA after two starts and a shiny 138 tRA+.
Matt Torra (88), Barry Enright (86) and Cody Evans (52) complete the rotation. Enright actually has an ERA of 3.82, but he's allowed 8 home runs already.
The monster bullpen is led by Dan Stange, who has a 2.95 ERA in 18.1 IP, with 16 K and only 3 BB. His tRA+ of 145 is good for 5th in the league among qualified relievers. Also performing well are Jason Urquidez (3.15 ERA, 20K:6BB in 20 IP, 141 tRA+), Clay Zavada (2.60 ERA, 18K:7BB in 17.1 IP, 128 tRA+) and Scott Maine (2.41 ERA, 20K:6BB in 18.2 IP, 113 tRA+). Dan Schlereth leads the bullpen in ERA with 1.76, but that masks some serious problems with command (10 walks in 15 innings) and his tRA+ is only 99.

Visalia

The Rawhide cooled off significantly after the 10-0, but they still lead the league with a 26-14 record.

At the plate:

Leadoff man Ollie Linton is putting together a good season, hitting .315/.436/.397. He is second in the league with 27 walks and 11th with a 117 wOBA+.
1B/LF Ryne White is hitting .307/.422/.378 with a 114 wOBA+. He also displayed a good eye (22 walks) but has no homers in a power position.
Colin Cowgill leads the team with 5 home runs, and his line is .299/.393/.503 with a 112 wOBA+.
After a slow start to the season, 3B Kyle Greene found his stroke, and he's on a 7 game hitting streak, to push his line to .271/.338/.421 and a wOBA+ of 107.
C/1B Sean Coughlin (.260/.333/.442, wOBA+ of 107) was promoted to AA last week.
Taylor Harbin (wOBA+ of 101), Ed Easley (99), Konrad Schmidt (93) have been close to average, while Elijah Rumler (80) has been poor.

On the mound:

Josh Collmenter somehow has an ERA of 4.58, even though he struck out 37 batters in 37.1 IP, walking only 6. His tRA+ of 143 is second in the league among qualified pitchers.
Pat McAnaney is an interesting case. His ERA (3.82) and FIP (3.54) are good, but his tRA+ is only 94, which suggests he's giving up a lot of well hit balls and benefits from defense and luck.
The rotation is completed by Bryan Shaw (tRA+ of 102) and newcomers Trevor Harden (76) and Cristian Beltre (64), who have made slow starts to their high A campaigns.
The bullpen has been very good, anchored by Jordan Norberto (1.93 ERA, 27K, 9BB in 23.1 IP) who is second in the league with a 170 tRA+. Bryan Henry is 6th in the league with a 139 tRA+ (2.73 ERA, 18:2 K:BB in 26.1 IP). Jorge Perez (113 tRA+), Jeff Dietz (107), Chase Christianson (106) and Leyson Septimo (106) have all performed well in relief.

South Bend

The Hawks are on a five game losing streak that dropped them to 18-20. They lie in fourth position, 8.5 back of the division lead. The pitching is a strong point, and the hitting, well, not so much.

At the plate:

CF Brendan Duffy is hitting really well, his line is .331/.428/.419 and his wOBA+ of 122 is good for 12th in the league for batters with more than 100 PA.
2B Jake Elmore's line is .252/.366/.423 and he leads the team with 20 walks. His wOBA+ is 116.
Jarrod Parker's older brother Justin is hitting .316/.386/.444 with a 115 wOBA+. He hit 3 doubles in a game on Tuesday.
Rossmel Perez (wOBA+ of 108), Alfredo Marte (103), Victor Estevez (98), Reynaldo Navarro (93), Isaias Asencio (88) and Alberto Diaz (87) complete the lineup.

On the mound:

Wade Miley is pitching well, with a 3.92 ERA and 31:7 K:BB in 41.1 IP. He leads the team with a 127 tRA+.
Ryan Cook has not allowed more than 3 runs all year, thanks to a power sinker that gets him a ton of groundballs. He is 5-1 with a 2.85 ERA and a 105 tRA+.
Brett Moorhouse (tRA+ of 90, ERA of 3.77), Sean Morgan (72, 3.42) and Taylor Sinclair (58, 4.22) complete the rotation
The bullpen is led by Terry Hose (tRA+ of 109, ERA of 1.15), Justin Mace (116, 4.15) and Bryan Woodall (112, 5.89)

Minor League Report

paqs — Fri, 15 May 2009 14:13:33 -0000

Minor League Report

Since I was too swamped to do a proper report this week, I want to apologize and offer you this file, containing up to date stats for all four levels.

What I did is I compiled all the stats from milb.com and calculated wOBA and FIP (thanks to FanGraphs). I also added expected BABIP (xBABIP) for every player based on their batted ball stats (thanks to minorleaguesplits) and recalculated their wOBA based on that (that would be the xwOBA column). Finally the xFIP column is also courtesy of minorleaguesplits and it normalizes the HR per Fly-ball rate.

So the xwOBA and xFIP columns are your best bet for luck free stats. They are scaled to OBA and ERA, so .330 is an average wOBA and .400 is amazing, and a 4.5 FIP is average, while 3 is amazing.

I hope I haven't scared you away, the triple slash stats are in there as well, and you can sort by whatever you want.

Fangraphs analysis on Young and Upton

paqs — Fri, 08 May 2009 13:33:02 -0000

Fangraphs analysis on Young and Upton

Fangraphs writer David Golebiewski looks at two of our outfielders and how they're going in opposite directions.

DBack To The Future - The Weekly Minor League Report

paqs — Tue, 05 May 2009 11:05:06 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Josh Whitesell is wondering what needs to happen for him to get called up.

Browse more photos »

Since we can agree a bit of a break from the exploits of our DBacks would do us a great deal of good, I'm pleased to bring you this week's minor league report. Jim and I agreed it should be a weekly thing where I recap the week for all the levels, and focus on one level each week, starting with AAA. It will probably be a Thursday fixture going forward, but since I wrote it yesterday, we figured I'll put it up and plan the next one for the following Thursday.

First of all, though, a small recap of the minor league moves made last week. Somewhat strangely, all of them are related to pitching.

RHP Leo Rosales was promoted to the majors in place of the injured Tom Gordon. He had a good 0.90 ERA in 10 IP in Reno, but he can't strike anyone out and will pretty much get smoked in the majors. Fine, this was written after the game last night, but his performance wasn't a shock by any means.
AAA LHP Evan MacLane was dealt to St. Louis for future considerations. He came over in 2006 in the Shawn Green trade and hasn't really impressed, with an ERA of 7.70 in 2007 and 4.96 last year. Unbelievably, I couldn't find any mention of this on milb.com or by Piecoro.
In his place, RHP Hector Ambriz was called up from AA. He had an ERA of 2.17 after 5 starts, with 32 strikeouts and 6 walks in 29 innings. Piecoro says it's not clear whether he'll start or pitch from the bullpen. Reno already has 5 starters, in Barnette, Blackley, Buckner, Etherton and Valdez, but if Ambriz has a shot at starting in the majors, it makes sense to start him in AAA. It's not as if any of the starters is doing well.
Ambriz vacated a spot for our No. 1 prospect, Jarrod Parker, who was promoted to AA after 4 starts in Visalia (19 IP, 0.95 ERA, 21 K, 4 BB). He wasn't dominant in his first start for Mobile (4.1 IP, 8H, 3ER) but he allowed only one extra base hit, with 5 strikeouts and a walk.
RHP Reid Mahon made his season debut for AA, after staying in extended spring training to get his mechanics straightened out after a rough spring training.
In Parker's place, RHP Cristian Beltre, who was delayed by shoulder fatigue in spring training, made his first start for Visalia last night. He allowed 1 earned run in 3 innings. He showed promise in South Bend last year, going 13-8 in 26 starts, with a K/BB of 4.5 in 155.1 innings.

A full recap of the four levels follows after the jump.

AAA Reno Aces

The Aces played 6 games last week, dropping 2 against Fresno, and taking 3 out of 4 against Portland. The PCL is a very batter friendly league, but the Aces take it to the extreme. Only one player has an OBP below .350 and only one starter has an ERA below 6.40

At the plate:

At some point, I will grow tired of touting Josh Whitesell. But not just yet. He had a good week (his 305th good week in a row), going 9-19 with 6 walks, 2 doubles and a homer to get his overall line to .368/.500/.592. His work this week included a 4-5 night and a 2-2 night with 4 walks. In his spare time, he comes up with catchy slogans and nicknames for teammates, as well as dying his hair gray and growing a beard.
Alex Romero is 10-19 in his last four games, to improve to a line of .314/.404/.477 on the season.
Trent Oeltjen was on fire last week, going 10-21 with 8 extra base hits and 3 walks. His line for the season is .297/.381/.486
Agustin Murillo cooled off somewhat, going 5-16 this week and .309/.380/.485 on the year.
Rusty Ryal batted 8-22 with 3 walks and a homer to bring his line up to .324/.367/.473
Luke Carlin went 4-12 with 2 walks. His line stands at .325/.413/.450
Brandon Watson went 7-18 with 2 walks and a homer to improve to .351/.370/.392
Chris Roberson is the player mentioned above as the only one with an OBP below .350. He went 2-14 last week to lower his line to .232/.306/.429

On the mound:

Seth Etherton had a good start on Friday, going 7 innings and allowing 3 runs on 4 hits, with a walk and 5 strikeouts. His ERA after 5 starts is a tidy 3.41 but there isn't much to like here. His K:BB numbers are 14:9 in 29 IP. Add the fact he is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and that he allowed 7 (!!) homers already, we're unlikely to see him put on a big league uniform.
After two terrible starts last week (8.1 IP, 12 ER), Tony Barnette had a good one on Thursday, going 6.2 innings and allowing 1 earned run on 5 hits, 2 walks and 4 strikeouts to get his first win of the year. His ERA is now 6.46 in 23.2 innings, but he has been let down by his defense, as his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a much better 4.43.
Travis Blackley made 2 starts last week, and the results were not pretty: 9 IP, 15 H, 10 ER to bring his ERA all the way up to 8.31 in 21.2 IP. His K:BB is at a very good 20:5 but he's way too hittable, allowing 34 hits (4 HR).
Billy Buckner also made his first two starts of the season last week, after pitching out of the bullpen, with equally disappointing results (8 IP, 7 ER). His ERA on the season is 6.75.
Bobby Korecky pitched 4.1 IP last week, allowing one run to lower his ERA to 3.38 in 5.1 innings since being sent down.
Doug Slaten struck out 3 batters in 1.1 innings of work, allowing just one hit.

AA Mobile BayBears

The Bears went 4-3 this week, dropping 2 of 3 to Birmingham, but winning 3 of 4 against Jacksonville.

At the plate:

After a slow start to the season, OF Cyle Hankerd had an unreal week, going on a 5 game multi hit streak, 15-24 with 5 doubles, 3 taters and 4 walks. His line for the season now stands at .377/.459/.609 in 76 PA.
Gerardo Parra went 3-5 with a homer last night, and 10-27 with 3 walks on the week, to get his line to .375/.476/.489. Also of note, in a small sample size, he hits lefties just as well as righties.
Orlando Mercado made a good start to the season, hitting .353/.405/.529 while splitting time behind the dish with Skelton.
James Skelton (3-17), Evan Frey (2-27), Yunesky Sanchez (2-19) and Pedro Ciriaco (3-21) have been ice cold last week.

On the mound:

Hector Ambriz bid farewell to AA with a dominant start on Friday. He struck out 6 and scattered 3 hits with no walks in 7 innings.
Brian Augenstein is a candidate to step into the big league rotation, according to Piecoro. He wrote that should Petit struggle again on Sunday (yesterday), we could see Brian take his place. He certainly did his chances no harm with his two starts last week, a combined 12.2 innings with 12 strikeouts, 9 hits and 4 walks. He is 5-0 after 5 starts with a 0.95 ERA in 31.2 IP.
Matt Torra had his third good start in a row on Thursday, allowing 1 run in 6 innings with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts to lower his ERA to 4.
Jason Urquidez (1 ER, 6 K in 6 IP), Scott Maine (0 ER, 5K in 4.1 IP) and Dan Schlereth (1ER, 4K in 3.2 IP) had good weeks out of the pen.

A+ Visalia Rawhide

Visalia went 5-1 last week to cement their spot at the top of the division.

At the plate:

Ollie Linton is on a 14 game hitting streak, hitting 10-20 with 2 walks during the last week. His overall line is .354/.485/.443
Ryne White batted 8-16 with 4 walks last week to bring his line to .329/.440/.408
Catcher Konrad Schmidt hit 9-19 with 2 walks to up his line to .292/.370/.361

On the mound:

Pat McAnaney had a two good starts on the week, for a total of 11 shutout innings with 15 strikeouts, to lower his ERA to 2.08 in 26 innings.
Wes Roemer went 5 shutout innings on Saturday, allowing 2 hits and 4 walks with 2 strikeouts, while keeping the ball on the ground. His ERA is 1.46 in 24.2 innings.
Jordan Norberto (3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K) and Bryan Henry (8.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K) had good weeks out of the pen.

A South Bend Silver Hawks

The Hawks went 4-3 last week, going on a three game losing streak followed by a three game winning streak over the weekend.

At the plate:

Catcher Rossmel Perez only started his season last Sunday, but he's off to a scorching start (.444/.545/.500 in 22 PA).

On the mound:

Trevor Harden made two starts last week, throwing 7 shutout innings for the win on Tuesday (3 H, 1 BB, 3 K) and 6.2 innings for another win yesterday (3 ER on 4 H, 2 BB and 5 K). He is 4-1 with an ERA of 2.64 in 30.2 IP.
Ryan Cook improved to 3-0 on Friday, allowing 3 runs on 8 hits in 6 innings, with 2 walks and 5 strikeouts. He has an ERA of 2.16 in 25 IP, with a K:BB of 14:4.
Terry Hose (3 perfect innings with 5 strikeouts) and Bryan Woodall (4.1 IP, 1 ER, 8K, 0 BB) had good weeks in relief.

I apologize if this turned out too long, but there's really no short way to recap a week's worth of games for four team, and I didn't want to leave any important stuff out. If you have any questions or suggestions please let me know. Sorry about the title as well, it's all I could think of :)

Minor league report - A

paqs — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 14:22:01 -0000

Our A ball affilliate in South Bend doesn't have much in terms of big name prospects, but there are some interesting players from the last two drafts who couldn't be placed in Visalia and some of our top young Latin prospects. As you'll see below, offense is really not the strong point with this team, and it leaves them 4th in their division with a 7-9 record. The pitching side, however, is very intriguing.

Batters:

The Good:

Brendan Duffy is a lefty OF who followed his good work in Missoula last year (.274/.423/.372) with a hot start this season (.367/.436/.388 in 50 PA). His BABIP is astronomic at .486 and he's going to have to bring some more patience and power to the plate when it comes down.
SS Reynaldo Navarro was a 3rd round pick in 2007, and he will play the entire 2009 season (his third) at the age of 19. He hit .258/.323/.385 at rookie ball in 2008 with rates of 7.9 BB% and 26.5 K%. He also stole 17 bases in 26 attempts and has good athleticism. Navarro, like most young players, has struggled with errors at shortstop. He started this season hot, batting .289/.373/.422 in 50 PA, with a BABIP that's high at .360 but not way ahead of his career BABIP. If he can impress in full season ball at a very young age, we're looking at a hot prospect.

The Bad:

Isaias Asencio is a 21 outfield prospect who had a solid showing in Rookie league last year. However, his line of .293/.325/.512 masked a horrible BB:K ratio (2.7% BB, 24,7% K). He started this year with the same hacking habit, and it's no surprise the results have changed dramatically. His line through 58 PA stands at .212/.259/.346, and that's with a solid BABIP of .314. He has some power, evidenced by the fact that 5 of his 11 hits were for extra bases, but his BB:K ratio is 3:17 and he won't go far if that doesn't change.
Alberto Diaz might just be an Asencio clone. 20 years old, plays the outfield, has some power and absolutely zero plate discipline. He also had an acceptable showing in Rookie league in '08 (.275/.327/.440) but came down hard this year to the tune of .224/.250/.379. He has hit 2 HR in 60 PA, but again, 10 Ks for every walk does not befit a baseball player.
Ryan Babineau is rated by Baseball America as our best defensive catcher. In addition to those skills, he submitted a decent season in Missoula last year, batting .231/.369/.320 in 180 PA. He seems to have a good eye for the plate, but not the required bat speed, as further evidenced by his start this year (.125/.282/.250). A 17% BB rate is magnificent, but you have to be able to make contact when you do swing the ball, and Babineau has not done that yet in his pro career.

Pitchers:

The Good:

Ryan Cook is an unheralded 27th round pick from last year's draft. After throwing 33 innings in Missoula last year (4.64 ERA) he started this year in fine form, and his line after three starts is 2-0, 19 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 1.42 ERA. If he wants to sustain his hot start, he'll really need to miss more bats at this level.
Unlike Cook, a lot is expected from lefty Wade Miley, our sandwich pick in '08. He is a hard-throwing left-hander who can touch 95 mph, and also features a plus slider, curveball and change-up. If he can improve his command/control, Miley, 22, could stick as a starter. After a cup of coffee in Missoula last summer, he was sent to South Bend and while his ERA after 4 starts is unimpressive at 4.11, his controllable stats are shiny (13 K, 2 BB, 1 HR in 15.1 IP). He might be a candidate for a quick promotion, maybe even to fill in for Parker at Visalia.
Trevor Harden was a nice find in the 14th round of the 2008 draft. He features an 89-93 mph fastball, slider and change-up. Harden had a solid debut in rookie ball by posting a 1.91 ERA (1.78 FIP) with 34 hits allowed in 42.1 innings against younger competition. He posted rates of 2.34 BB/9 and 13.61 K/9. As he entered full-season ball in 2009, he is 2-1 in his first 3 starts, with an ERA of 3.18, and 16 K, 2 BB, 2 HR in 17 IP.
After two bad years in Short A ball, lefty reliever Sean Morgan started the season in fine form, with an ERA of 0.96 in 9.1 IP, with 9 K and 4 BB. He has been plagued by walks so far in his career (43 in 70 IP) and he'll need to work on his control in order to stick around.
RHP Terry Hose started 15 games for Missoula last year with mixed results (4.48 ERA in 78.1 IP, but a K/BB of 2.85 and only 5 HR). He was shifted to the bullpen this year, and has started brightly, with an ERA of 2.35 in 7.2 IP.
Lefty Bayron Zepeda has a tidy 1.59 ERA in 5.2 IP this year. However, he has not struck out a batter yet, after posting 37 K in 41.2 IP in Rookie league in '08.

The Bad:

RHP Daniel Vasquez had two good years in Short A (3.95 ERA in 89 IP total). He's struggling this season with a 7.04 ERA in 7.2 IP, but if he catches up to his career K/9 rate of 8.7, he'll be alright.
RHP Jordan Meaker was great in Missoula in '08, posting an ERA of 1.47 in 36.2 IP. However, that was not the whole story, because a high walk rate (5.15 BB/9) meant that his FIP stood at 3.80. With a BABIP that's almost twice as high as last year (.429 vs .243) he posted a 9.53 ERA through 5.2 IP this year. The BABIP will regress heavily, but he'll need to cut down on the walks to be effective.
Righty Rafael Quezada might just be the answer to the age old question "What would it be like if Jon Rauch was a starter?" After getting lit up in the Rookie league of all places last year, to the tune of an 8.17 ERA in 68.1 IP, with 11 HR and 36 BB, he is serving BP in South Bend, and the result are remarkably similar: 10.1 IP, 14 H, 5 BB, 2 HR, 8.71 ERA. Even his K rate isn't special.

Well, this concludes my look at our minor league affiliates through the first couple of weeks of the season. Hope you enjoyed it. I might do a quick weekly report every Monday to see who's hot and who's not, if you're interested, of course.

Minor league report - A+

paqs — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 12:06:35 -0000

I continue my DBacks minor league report with a look at Advanced A Visalia Rawhide. It's a team loaded with talent from our last two drafts, and they tied the Cal league record with a 10-0 start. They cooled off somewhat since then, but they sit at the top of the north division with a 13-5 record.

Batters:

The Good:

Baseball America regards Colin Cowgill as the Diamondbacks' second-best outfield prospect (No. 9 overall). Cowgill led the Northwest League with 11 home runs last summer despite being promoted to the Midwest League after just 20 games. His overall line between the two levels was .264/.366/.479. He has legitimate power and a great eye. His line to start the season is .318/.444/.652 with 4 HR in 81 PA. His BABIP is .395 meaning his batting average is likely in for a regression, but with his eye and power, he's a legitimate prospect.
Ollie Linton is a top-of-the-order left handed hitter, posting a .363 on-base percentage last summer in A ball. He is also considered a good defender and has speed to burn. His line to start the season is .305/.468/.824 and it's not influenced by a high BABIP. His BB rate is 20% and his K rate is 8.5%, both terrific numbers.
1B Ryne White is regarded as the Diamondbacks' best first-base prospect after opening his career last year hitting .289 with seven HR between stops in the Pioneer and Midwest Leagues. His stats so far are .317/.414/.400 with a high .396 BABIP.
C Ed Easley started the season well after a poor showing last year (.247/.313/.336). He is hitting .250/.451/.346 in 71 PA with a low BABIP, walking in every fourth PA. In fact, he has 17 walks compared with 13 hits so far.

The Bad:

After posting good numbers in South Bend last year (.276/.314/.414), middle infielder Taylor Harbin is off to a slow start this year, hitting .250/.308/.347 in his first 79 PA.
C/DH Konrad Schmidt hit .288/.340/.372 between two levels of A ball last year, but his success hasn't translated to this year yet, where he's hitting just .226/.305/.264 in 59 PA.
After hitting .302/.351/.439 in 231 PA in Rookie league in '08, 3B Kyle Greene had a rough start in '09, hitting just .207/.288/.328 in 66 PA, striking out 38% of the time.

Pitchers:

The Good:

RHP Jarrod Parker pitched so well he earned a promotion to AA after just four stats. His line? 19 IP, 21 K, 4 BB, 0.95 ERA. It seems the front office is limiting his innings and pitch totals, which is the right thing to do at this point. In fact, last season in South Bend, he was only allowed to throw fastballs, and he still struck out a batter per inning. It will surprise no one if he's pitching for a spot in the big league rotation next spring.
However, reliever William Spottiswood has outdone Parker, earning a promotion to AAA for his trouble. He followed his sterling work in A ball last year (64 IP, 58K, 16 BB, 1 HR, 2.11 ERA) with an even better start this year. His line of 8 IP, 9K, 1BB, 2ER was enough for him to skip a level, although if you read my AA report, you know that club is loaded with hot relief arms, so maybe that's the reason. He has allowed a couple of runs in 2 IP in his debut for Reno last night, but added another 2 strikeouts.
Righty starter Wes Roemer, a sandwich pick in 2007, hasn't had a great year last year (4.59 ERA in 162.2 IP) for Visalia, so he got a chance to repeat this level, and so far, the results are there. 4 starts, 19.2 IP, 12K, 6 BB, 0 HR for a 1.83 ERA. His K:BB could be higher, but he hasn't allowed a home run this year after allowing 25 last year.
Another promising starter is Josh Collmenter, who is in his first year at A+ after two great seasons in A ball (2.71 ERA in 2007, 3.41 ERA in 2008). After 3 starts this year, his line is 16IP, 16K, 4BB, 1HR, 2.81 ERA.
Jordan Norberto is a young lefty relief arm with good stuff (296 K in 290 IP in his career) and poor control (138 BB). He pitched a 100 A ball innings in both '07 and '08 and had little success, with an ERA around 5.30. This year, it's more of the same (12 K, 6 BB in 11 IP) but the results look better because he allowed 0 HR to keep his ERA at 3.27. It's hard to see him keep this up unless he can cut down on free passes.
Brian Henry is a right handed bullpen arm coming off a good season in A ball (3.10 ERA in 90 IP). He started the year on fire, punching out 14 batters in 11.2 to help himself to a 2.31 ERA. The 10.9 K/9 rate is a huge improvement on his career numbers to date, and it'll be a challenge for him to sustain it.

The Bad:

Leyson Septimo, our outfielder turned lefty power pitcher can bring the heat (51 K in 48.1 IP in his short career as a pitcher) but he's still learning to locate his pitches (41 BB). Needless to say, the results are not there. After posting an ERA of 5.49 last year, he's at 4.91 after 7.1 IP this year (7 K, 8 BB). Throwing heat in the upper 90s as a lefty is enough to make scouts drool, but unless he learns to pitch, I can't see him being an asset.
After a good year in A ball in '08 (3.44 ERA in 115 IP), lefty reliever Tom Layne started off slowly this year, with an ERA of 6.75 through 9.1 IP. He is not helping himself with a 4:5 K:BB.
Chase Christianson is another relief pitcher off to a slow start. After a pedestrian season last year at this level (5.95 ERA in 115 IP), his ERA is at 7.27 after 8.2 IP this year. He's done a good job not allowing a homer yet this year, after allowing 14 last year, but a K:BB of 6:4 is not good enough.

Well, the Visalia club just got a little less interesting with the promotion of Parker, but nevertheless, there are some interesting players to keep an eye on in the future. I'll conclude this exercise with a look at our A ball affiliate in South Bend.

Minor league report - AA

paqs — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 07:08:27 -0000

Next up are the Mobile BayBears, and it gets a lot better here. Mobile is the home of three top prospects and several other promising players. Gerardo Parra is our best hitting prospect, and he's rated no. 2 by Baseball America. Daniel Schlereth is our 2008 first rounder, rated no. 3 by BA. Middle infielder Mark Hallberg is rated as our no. 4 prospect. Other players of note are OF Evan Frey, who led our system in steals last year, SS Pedro Ciriaco, rated our best infield defender, Rule 5 pick James Skelton, who just missed out on a 25-man roster sport and a plethora of promising young pitchers.

They made a good start to the season and are top of the SOU South with a 12-5 record, thanks mainly to some great pitching.

Batters:

The Good:

Gerardo Parra has been as good as advertised. Beginning the year in AA after a brief spell at the end of last season, he is on fire, hitting .377/.493/.492 in 75 PA, albeit with a .423 BABIP. And that's playing against older players. The only knock on him is he doesn't have enough power for a corner outfield spot (he's projected as a corner outfielder in the majors), but with an OBP of .500 and a BB:K of 2, that's just nitpicking. He could develop as a .300/.400/.450 guy in the majors.
3B Ricardo Sosa has been as good, if not better, so far, with a line of .371/.435/.581 in 69 PA. His BABIP is also at a sky high .428, so expect a good deal of regression, but even a regressed line has him OPS-ing .874. This is his first season in AA, after a couple of disappointing years in A-ball.
1B Bryan Byrne is another player with a hot start fueled by a high BABIP, with a line of .333/.484/.479 in 64 PA. However, his walk rate is at 18.8% for the year and 15% for his career, which means what he's a valuable player regardless of batting average. He is also a line drive hitter, which makes his career BABIP just under .350. Certainly a player to keep an eye on.
RF Chris Rahl, another BABIP beneficiary, is hitting .324/.457/.568 in 46 PA after two terrible years in AA where he OPSed .682 and a Byrnes-post-2007-like .587. He's probably headed for a huge regression.

The Not So Bad:

Evan Frey had a great year last season, batting.314/.400/.411 with 37 steals between South Bend and Visalia, and earning himself a first shot at AA this year at the young age of 22. He isn't exactly setting the world alight, but his .254/.329/.373 line in 70 PA is mostly held back by BABIP. On first glance his .300 BABIP seems normal, but he has a line drive bat that helped him to an incredible .370 BABIP in his career so far. Couple that with a great eye (11.5% BB this season, 10+ for his career) and he's one of our brightest prospects. Like Parra, he has no home run power, but I think some high average + high OBP + low power guys are a welcome change in contrast to our big league guys, who can hit it 500 feet, but also will likely never sniff league average OBP numbers.
You've all heard of C James Skelton, the OBP machine acquired from Detroit in the Rule 5 draft. He did everything he could to keep a spot on the 25 man roster, but since he's never played above AA, his bat wasn't quite up to the task, even if his eye was. So instead of shipping him back to Detroit, we traded a AA starter for him. After a .294/.425/.399 season in AA last year, his .229/.371/.313 line is held back by a BABIP that's 100 points lower than his career number (another LD bat). However, the 23 year old left hander's BB:K ratio is close to 2.5 and while he has no real power (sensing a theme here? :) when his BABIP gets back to normal, he'll be among the league leaders in OBP. Whether his future is in middle infield or behind the dish, an on base freak in a light hitting position is a real asset.
The last of the unlucky brigade is No. 4 prospect, 2B - SS Mark Hallberg, who at 23 gets his first shot at AA after two good seasons in A ball. He started the season 0 for 21, but has since started hitting and walking to improve to a line of .188/.322/.271 in 59 PA which is going to look a lot better when an unsustainable BABIP of .225 goes up.

The Bad:

Our slick fielding SS prospect Pedro Ciriaco also gets his first shot at AA at the age of 23 after hitting .310 for A+ Visalia last year. His line of .196/.222/.294 in 54 PA is held back by a .238 BABIP, however his lack of plate discipline means his offensive value is tied solely to BA and BABIP.
Speaking of light hitting middle infield hackers, SS Yuniesky Sanchez is repeating AA at the age of 25. His line of .222/.239/.289 in 46 PA is also held back by a .238 BABIP, but no amount of luck on balls in play is going to make up for a 2.2% BB percentage. Apparently Yuniesky swings at strikes, balls, pickoff throws and small bird, making Pablo Sandoval look like Pat Burrell.

Pitchers:

The Good:

Righty Brian Augenstein is wondering what it takes to get on Baseball America's top 10 prospect list. His work last year between South Bend and Visalia: 22 starts, 131 innings, 99 K, a Maddux-like 14 walks (!!) for a 2.74 ERA. The best part? That was his age 21 season. That earned him a promotion to AA, and boy, did he bring it. So far, 3 starts, 3 wins, 19 IP, 1 ER, 17 K, 2 BB for an ERA of 0.47. That's what you call a good start. Considering our rotation in AAA is terrible, he or one of the other pitchers listed below could be in for a quick promotion.
Hector Ambriz had a bad start on Sunday, allowing 5 ER on 5 hits and 4 walks in 4.1 IP. The good news? That raised his ERA to 2.86. He's off to a great start as well, with a K:BB of 26:6 in 22 IP, holding opposing hitters under the Mendoza line. After a couple of dissappointing seasons, he seems to be coming into his own at age 25.
There are no less than 6 relievers with good numbers, so I'll go through them quickly. RHP Dan Stange has an ERA of 2.57 with a K:BB of 8:1 in 7 IP, after an injury plagued season last year.
LHP Scott Maine (1.13 ERA, 7:0 K:BB in 8 IP) is even better in his first taste of AA after postinh 10 K/9 in Visalia last year.
After posting a 3.34 ERA and 72K in 67 innings across three levels last year (he even got a taste of AAA late in the year), Jason Urquidez is yet to allow a run in 9.1 innings in AA this year, striking out 7 and walking only two. To be fair, at 26 he is old for this level, so I'd expect him to prove himself in AAA this year.
The magnificent story of last year was LHP Clay Zavada, who threw 35.1 innings in A ball, allowing 2 earned runs and even more incredibly striking out 54! He was added to our 40 man roster and picked up where he left off last year, punching out 11 in 8 innings, walking only two, and allowing just one run on a solo homer.
Our 2008 first rounder, LHP Dan Schlereth started the season in AA, continuing his steep climb (he only threw 12 innings in Rookie and A ball last year) and his line so far is 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 4 BB. He walked 10 in 18 IP in his pro career so far, so here's hoping it doesn't turn into a problem going forward.
RHP Kyler Newby had another dominant season in A ball last year (2.69 ERA, 11.5 K/9 in 67 IP), and his line to start the season is 8.1 IP, 2 runs on 2 solo homers, 8 K, 1 BB.

The Bad:

RHP starter Matt Torra had an interesting season last year. He started in AA and was great, with an ERA of 2.85 and a K/BB of 4.17 in 13 starts. He was then promoted to AAA, where he had a more pedestrian 4.71 ERA with a 2.42 K/BB in 13 starts. Back in AA to start this season, his line looks identical to the AAA one from last year (4.71 ERA, 2.4 K/BB). He was also hurt by the long ball, surrendering 4 in only 21 innings.
The only reliever with a poor line is RHP Vincent Bongiovanni, with an ERA of 6 in 9 innings.

As if all these prospects weren't enough, baseball in Mobile just got better last night with the news that our top prospect, RHP Jarrod Parker was promoted from Visalia, where he destroyed A ball hitters in his first 4 starts. This will mean our top 4 prospects are playing in the AA club.

I'm not sure if this is tied to the move made earlier in the day, when we traded left handed AAA starter Evan MacLane to the Cardinals for a player to be named later. This is just speculation, but we may see one of the aforementioned AA pitchers fill his spot in AAA, and in turn, Parker step into the vacated AA spot.

I hope this, in addition to the game last night, has improved your outlook on this team :)

Minor league report - AAA

paqs — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:11:56 -0000

Hello!

Since I haven't seen anyone on here talk much about minor league baseball, and since I'm between projects at work (don't tell my boss), I thought I would write a little update on how our prospect have begun their season. I keep checking box scores for the four levels every morning anyway, so I might as well share.

Just to get it out of the way, 70 plate appearances and 20 innings are small samples, but let's face it, we need a distraction from what's going on at the big league club.

AAA Reno

As everyone knows, this is the first season for our AAA affiliate in Reno. They haven't exactly made a great start to the season, and they sit in second place in the PCL South with a 7-10 record. It's worth noting that out of Baseball America's top 10 DBack prospects, only Cesar Valdez, no. 7, and Billy Buckner, no. 8, are in AAA (I'm not sure I agree with Buckner, he of the 4.41 career ERA in the minors, being named a top 10 prospect). Most of the players on this team are career minor leaguers/ quad A types, and it's hard to see any of them, save Whitesell, help the big club anytime soon. It's also worth noting that the PCL is a hitter's league, so the numbers should be viewed accordingly.

Batters:

The Good:

No surprise regarding the first name you'll read here. Josh Whitesell picked up where he left off last year, crushing AAA pitching to the tune of .351/.479/.561 (last year's line was .329/.427/.571). His BABIP is at a very high .429 but he sustained a BABIP of .416 all of last year, so I don't think he's in for much of a regression. I know Major League Equivalent stats are pretty much garbage, but www.minorleaguesplits.com says the above line translates to .263/.373/.404, which would make him our best hitter behind Reynolds and Lopez. Whitesell can hit for power and he has a great eye, but he has to play in AAA because of Tony Clark and his veteran leadership :( I could write a 1000 words about Whitesell, but I'll just add that the only guy to have a better season in the PCL last year, Nelson Cruz, is OPS-ing .911 at the big league level this year.
Another guy off to a hot start is 3B Agustin Murillo, who after two subpar seasons in AA didn't play in our system at all in 2008. His line after 15 games is .309/.391/.509 with more walks than K's and a normal BABIP of .340.
OF Alex Romero has also started well, hitting .292/.387/.477, with a great BB:K of 1.5 and a BABIP that's under league average.
Our two catchers, John Hester (.333/.395/.513 in 43 PA) and Luke Carlin (.321/.406/.464 in 32 PA) have also put up good numbers sharing time behind the dish. Hester, 25, has good power for a catcher (.190 ISO in his minor league career) and if he keeps up his current BB:K of 2, he might become a valuable player. Carlin played in 36 for the Padres last year, so I imagine he'll be up if the need arises for a catcher.
Recent callup Josh Wilson put up .260/.344/.420 in 61 PA, decent numbers for a shortstop.
Also of note is OF Brandon Watson, who is hitting .345, but he doesn't walk or hit for power, so his value is at the mercy of his BABIP.

The Bad:

OF Chris Roberson (.262/.304/.429), OF Trent Oeltjen (.255/.339/.345), and 2B Ruben Gotay (.240/.361/.300) have started slowly this year. Gotay put up better numbers than that in the majors last year and he OPS-ed .767 for the Mets in 2007, so he's certainly better than what we've seen so far.

Pitchers:

The Good:

Recent callup Esmerling Vasquez was dominant to start the season, with an ERA of 0.93 and a K:BB of 9:3 in 9.2 innings. He was our minor league pitcher of the year in 2007, but had a terrible year in '08 coming back from injury. He has major league stuff but he needs to work on his control.
Leo Rosales allowed only 1 earned run in 9 innings, but his peripherals don't look good, he only struck out 3, with 2 walks.
Jose Valderde clone (according to Bob Melvin) Jose Marte has been pretty good, with a 3.21 ERA and 13 Ks in 14 innings, albeit with 7 walks.
Seth Etherton is the only starter without an embarrassing line, as he is 2-1 with an ERA of 3.27. However, his K:BB ratio is a terrible 9:8 and he allowed 4 homers already.

The Really Really Bad:

Cesar Valdez, our minor league pitcher of the year in 2008, is struggling out of the gate. 3 starts, 12 innings, 7.50 ERA and 2 HR allowed. His K rate is also much lower than last season.
Fellow starters Tony Barnette (8.47 ERA in 4 starts) and Evan MacLane (6.75 ERA in 3 starts) are also struggling, but their FIP stats are significantly better than their ERA (4.85 and 4.43, also pretty bad).
In the bullpen, Abe Woody and Jon Coutlangus have an identical 7.94 ERA in 11.1 frames.
The most interesting case here is that of Josh Ellis, who has outstanding controllable stats (11K, 3BB, 0HR in 8.1 innings), but has been absolutely slaughtered by a .516 BABIP to the tune of an ERA just short of 12 (11.88)

Well, I hope you enjoyed this little AAA report. I'm probably going to do AA before you guys get out of bed. Let me know what you think.