SB Nation User Blog: passionately objective

What is it worth to you?

passionately objective — Mon, 12 May 2008 20:38:57 -0000

Hello Friends,

I'm sure everyone is aware that BD has an opt out available to him, and everyone, including myself, is wondering if he's going to take it or not. I read something suprising today, apparently BD is willing to stay with the W's at a discount in hopes to sign long term and bring in some talent, which is exactly what he would have to do to get the extension he wants.

So what's Mullin waiting for?

If the article is correct, and BD is willing to sign a contract near the current value of other PGs such as Nash, Arenas, Kidd, and Billups, that's relatively good news for the Warriors:

"Some players comparable to Davis in terms of veteran point guards include Phoenix's Steve Nash (who is playing on a six-year, $63 million deal), Detroit's Chauncey Billups (five years, $60 million), Washington's Gilbert Arenas (six years, $65 million) and Dallas' Jason Kidd (six years, $103 million)."

Nash: 6yr/$63M averages out to $10.5M per year.

Billups: 5yr/$60M averages out to $12M per year.

Arenas: 6yr/$65M averages out to $10.83M per year.

Kidd: 6yr/$103MM averages out to $17.16M per year. *It's worth noting that I think it's reasonable to assume that no PG is going to get a contract like this, so for the sake of this diary Kidd's contract will not be used.

-The Nash/Billups/Arenas contracts were 6, 5, and 6 year contracts. Since there is no such thing as a 5.333 year contract, I'll round it up to a 6 year contract.

-The average combined salaries of the 3 other players contracts is $62.66M. So I'll round that up to $63M.

-That makes a 6yr/$63 contract at $10.5M per year. With the Warriors new found contract conscience, and the apparent leverage they have in these negotiations (and an attempt at a compromise) I'll make it a 5yr/$52.5M contract with a team option to make it up to a 6yr/$63M deal.

Health: what the players average games played since 2001-2002:

Since BD reportedly is comparing himself to these players, and health is clearly an issue, how does his average games played per season stack up against the rest?

Note: Had to use 2001-2002 as a starting point because it was Gilbert Arena's first year in the league. Since then...

Arenas: avg 61.5 games played per year.

Nash: avg 79 games played per year.

Billups: avg 77.5 games played per year.

BD: avg 63 games played per year

So while BD is younger than both Nash and Billups, he has played, on average, almost 15+ less games per season. When making an investment of this type, health is extremely important.

At 29, is BD's health more likely to improve or decline over the next 5-6 years?

Considering that BD is willing to make the sacrafice, what do you think is holding up the Warriors, or more specifically, Chris Mullin at this point?

-Health concerns?

-Legnth of contract?

-Amount of contract?

-How BD fits with the post Don Nelson era of the Warriors, which a new contract would bring him into this era.

-Future salary cap concerns? Wright, Biedrins and Ellis could be the core for years to come.

-All of the above?

-Other?

Quick note: Roster move

passionately objective — Fri, 09 May 2008 22:00:58 -0000

I looked but didn't see that anyone made mention that Dallas Braden was sent down to make room for Keith Foulke. Makes you wonder what other moves are coming our way as people stop being injured, if that ever happens.

Also, Buck continues to struggle, he may stay down while our guys continue to roll. If it ain't broke....don't break it so that you can feel better by fixing it? Or something like that.

Who is the most expendable?

passionately objective — Fri, 09 May 2008 20:52:31 -0000

Of our pitchers that were on the roster last year, who is the most expendable, or the most likely to be traded?

I have chosen the players I have noticed mentioned the most on AN, and other places.

Chad Gaudin: Gaudin is young enough to attract potential teams, and showed great promise last year....before flaming out in the second half. He could be a valuable trading chip, but the fact he battled injury(ies) last year doesn't help.

Justin Duchscherer: An All Star reliever that always had what it took to start. He has come out of the gate impressively, minus the start he missed while injured, could also be an attractive find to a team in need of SP, or even RP. He can bolster a rotation or help anchor a bullpen, which ups his value. His versatility makes him easier to trade.

The down side, his going under the knife this offseason, and his early injury don't help. His continued strong outings should help ease any apprehension from another GM that is looking into him.

*Duchscherer is in a contract year, and he probably won't be resigned. If he is still pitching very well and the A's are contending, Beane might be willing to let him play the whole season out and hope he is a Type A free agent.

Joe Blanton: The most durable pitcher on the A's rotation, and appointed ace of the staff. I think that by default alone he has been given this title, because your ace usually is a dominant pitcher. Consistent is a better word than dominant when describing Big Joe. That being said, he certainly has some value, just ask the Rockies. I bet that come the deadline in July, Beane will be choosing which pocket he wants to pick in exchange for Blanton.

Huston Street: I've recently read here that closers are easy to come by. Are they? Street hasn't been the healthiest of the bunch, and I'm not sure he's the dominant pitcher that we all thought he was going to be. I do like Street, he has what it takes mentally, and Troy Percival is a good example of how quickly you can turn it around. Not by any means is Street performing poorly, but the fact that people on AN are willing to trade him has to say something about some of their opinions of him.

My vote is Joe Blanton. He is not an ace, but if his value were to dictate otherwise, which I think it will, he's the one. What do you think?

Poll

Who is the most likely to be traded?

The fall of Richie Sexson

passionately objective — Fri, 09 May 2008 19:51:37 -0000

The 2004 offeason had just welcomed two new players to the Seattle Mariners, one Richie Sexton and Adrian Beltre. Both signed to big money deals with promise of HRs for years to come, and perrenial contention in the rough and tumble AL West. This was also what I consider the beginning of the end for Richie Sexton.

Was it the money? Sexton at 4 years / $50M

Could Sexton be suffering from what I call Zito-itis? Ever since he signed that contract he has been on the decline. I believe he'll be 34 at the end of this year, not necessarily the age where I would expect this kind of performance. He's always been a high strikeout guy, and he wasn't necessarily bad when he first got to Seattle, but since the beginning of last season he's been pretty bad.

Was it performance enhancing drugs?

That is all history in the books, but the decline of Richie Sexton leaves me a little confused. He, unlike other big hitters, didn't really hit the PED speculation circuit as much as others have. His HR totals weren't as blatantly obvious as many have said about Beltre, but still his production has been on a decline. He hasn't been the healthiest player, but hasn't been Rich Harden either. What gives?

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1997	CLE	5	11	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.273	.273	.273	.545
1998	CLE	49	174	28	54	14	1	11	35	6	42	1	1	.310	.344	.592	.936
1999	CLE	134	479	72	122	17	7	31	116	34	117	3	3	.255	.305	.514	.818
2000	CLE	91	324	45	83	16	1	16	44	25	96	1	0	.256	.315	.460	.774
2000	MIL	57	213	44	63	14	0	14	47	34	63	1	0	.296	.398	.559	.957
2001	MIL	158	598	94	162	24	3	45	125	60	178	2	4	.271	.342	.547	.889
2002	MIL	157	570	86	159	37	2	29	102	70	136	0	0	.279	.364	.504	.867
2003	MIL	162	606	97	165	28	2	45	124	98	151	2	3	.272	.379	.548	.927
2004	ARI	23	90	20	21	4	0	9	23	14	21	0	0	.233	.337	.578	.914
2005	SEA	156	558	99	147	36	1	39	121	89	167	1	1	.263	.369	.541	.910
2006	SEA	158	591	75	156	40	0	34	107	64	154	1	1	.264	.338	.504	.842
2007	SEA	121	434	58	89	21	0	21	63	51	100	1	0	.205	.295	.399	.694
2008	SEA	33	115	14	24	5	0	7	18	16	36	0	0	.209	.303	.435	.738
Career		1304	4763	733	1248	256	17	301	925	561	1263	13	13	.262	.344	.512	.857

All of this may have come to a head when Sexton was under the impression that he was being thrown at, when in reality it was a very high pitch near the middle of the plate. Sexton flipped out, and charged the mound. Luckily he dropped the bat in favor of the helmet his weapon of choice, which was one of the weakest things I'd seen in a while. (Which he did admit to, but still...) When you couple his "warm" reception he gets from the fans in Seattle, and the decline of his career, you wonder how far he was from bringing the bat with him to the mound? The guy is as tall as KG, he should be giving the pitcher a bat to make the arm legnth fair.

My estimation is that he will continue to decline, which leaves me to the question, what do you think happened to him? PEDs? Age? Pressure? Am I alone in this question, besides Mariner's fans I'm sure? Does a player receive further penalty when they use a foreign object duing an altercation, like a bat or helmet for instance? If there isn't anything that discourages a player from bringing weapons to the mound with him, there certainly should be! I'm interested in hearing what the consensus is on his decline....

A gift, or a curse?

passionately objective — Fri, 09 May 2008 00:34:50 -0000

With the everlasting presence that is Al Davis, I have been push and pulled in different ways since I was a child. My father, one of 10 children, instilled in us the institution that was being a Raider fan.

Growing up, I learned about how Al was such an influence in the merger, about how he hired the first Latino head coach in Tom Flores, the first African American head coach in Art Shell, and the first female executive in Amy Trask: the marks of an innovator.

His growing the Raider brand has been most impressive. He brought many great years to the fans of the Raider Nation, and has acknowledged that by annointing the Raiders as the "team of the decades." The legacy of great teams, great players, and a slew of timeless games with outrageous endings. Endings that could only be described with a legendary name like "The Immaculate Reception".

The greatness that is Al Davis has been well documented. Even people that may not be on the best terms with Al, a la Gruden and Kiffin (reportedly), they will only characterize him as a hands on owner with a wealth of knowledge and a legend in the game. So where are we now, as of today? Is Al the innovating legend that is unfairly characterized, and misunderstood? Or has he been the single most destructive force from within the once proud Raider organization?

If you listened to every available form of media, Al is the latter, and not the former. He runs the drafts, chooses the free agents, and runs (or tries to run) coaches out of town that aren't loyal "yes" men. The Raider job is apparently the job that nobody wants, and the cycle plays itself out again and again.

I find myself struggling between wanting to believe that the Raiders are a part of a conspiracy, a product of being a Raider fan from birth, and accepting the truth that seems to reveal itself. The mere mention of dysfunction can send some of the more "faithful" Raider fans into a name calling rant to include, but not limited to, "traitor", while I've read others say that the Raiders will remain irrelevant until he goes away, or dies. Harsh.

So I've decided that Al Davis can neither be regarded as a gift or a curse, because he has become equal parts of both. You can't deny the contributions that he's made to the game, and yet, there is also no denying his influence on the recent history of the franchise. You can only describe Al as "The Gift and the Curse".

Go ahead, make my day.

passionately objective — Thu, 08 May 2008 18:17:12 -0000

In reference to my call to trade Al Harrington, I have been asked (as well as wondered myself) who I would go after? Well, I'm not sure how enamored they Heat are with Shawn Marion, or how he feels about them, but that would be my first choice outside of Elton Brand. Elton Brand is a more difficult trade to make because the proposed team is in the same division as the W's, which makes a trade less likely.

Let me say that either of those are very likely, but here is the direction I'd try and go. The case for Shawn Marion:

Run, run, run: The Warriors are probably entering next season as the NBA's elite scoring team, with the addition of Shaq in PHX, and the gradual decline of Steve Nash. Never mind that the Warriors already an elite scoring team, but the addition of Shawn Marion would put them over the top.

Scoring: Worst case scenario for the nay sayer, the scoring would be a wash, but I'd still give the upper hand to Marion, easily.

*Marion: 36 MPG, 15.4 PPG, FGP 50%, FTP 70%.

*Harrington: 27 MPG: 13.6 PPG, FGP 43%, FTP 77%.

The only clear edge that Harrington has is free throws, which is of concern, but not enough of a concern for anyone to not make this move.

The Achilles Heel: Defense and Rebounding: With the Warriors willingness to go small, you could use the 6'7 Marion at the PF position.

Marion's regular season defensive rankings worth noting:

#7 in the NBA with 1.98 SPG (Steal per game) - Harrington 0.9 SPG

#6 in the NBA with 8.0 Defensive RPG - Harrington 4.1 Defensive RPG

Many of Marion's stats were better than Harrington's, but twice as many steals and defensive rebounds per game? Who doesn't know that the Warriors defensive mission is to turn the ball over? Last season the Warriors were the #1 offensive rebounding team in the Western Conference, and the 5th worst defensive rebounding team in the Conference. Remember to the defensive stops that could have been last year, if the opposing team hadn't pulled that offensive rebound...

The logistics of the trade:

This is where it gets very tricky. I'm not completely knowledgeable of the NBA salary cap, but from what I could find, the Warriors could go up to $67.865M before they had to start paying the luxury tax. I wasn't able to find out what the 2008/2009 salary cap figure will be, so I'm basing this off of this past seasons numbers. I will also be using last years player salaries for free agents and their potential sign and trade deals.

Sean Marion's 08-09 cap figure is $17.4M, Al Harrington being $9.2M. Ouch.

Fist there would have to be some sign and trade deals done in order to make this deal. The main players leaving the Warriors would be Al Harrington, Mickael Pietrus (I chose MP due to the apparent interest from Miami last season), Kosta Perovic, Kelenna Azibuke, and the Warriors #1 draft pick this year.

Salaries:

As stated, Harrington is making $9.2M.

Pietrus made $3.4M, so I'll round him up to $4M assuming he's get a small raise.

Perovic is due to make $1.94M.

Azibuke is due to make 797K.

(Plus 1, or 2 first round picks? Or Belinelli if the W's don't think he'll pan out)

Other players that could be mixed and matched, Barnes, O'Bryant and Belinelli. Belinelli may be required as part of the main package, although I'm trying to avoid that in these scenario's. Those salaries mentioned above would come to $15.93M, which could amount to a wash with whatever Marion would sign to, because his new deal would not equal the $17.4M he's due to make.

Also, if the Warriors are that big on Belinelli, they could offer an additional 1st round pick, because chances are with Marion they wouldn't be in the lottery and the team would be young enough that losing another first round pick probably wouldn't kill them in the long term, although it certainly wouldn't help.

This would give the W's a possible roster of:

Baron Davis - C.J. Watson *

Monta Ellis - Kelenna Azibuke

Stephen Jackson - Matt Barnes *

Shawn Marion - Brandon Wright

Andris Biedrins - Austin Croshere *

Patrick O'Bryant * - Marco Bellinelli *

* Players that could be resigned, or (sign and) traded away as part of the proposed deal.

Since I tried to be conservative in my salary cap figures, the Warriors would probably be in decent cap shape, especially if a move like this could prompt Baron Davis to opt out and resign at a discount in the same manner that Gilbert Arenas would to keep Antawn Jamison. If not, BD's departure after this season would clear plenty of cap room to allow for Marion's salary and a replacement for years to come.

Ellis/Jax/Marion/Wright/Biedrins - That sounds good to me.

I did my best to make this trade remotely apprear aa a possibility, but there is so much that goes into it, and so many variables involved that makes something of this scale hard to imagine. Anyone have Mullin's phone number? Maybe he's hiring for an assistant.....I'm full of imagination.

87 MPH

passionately objective — Thu, 08 May 2008 00:05:32 -0000

Just when I thought Barry was prime for a meltdown during the bottom of the 3rd, he gets out of it. Did I mention that he hit 87 on a low fastball.

Of course, as I'm typing this, he gets rocked for a 2 run shot. Not good since that looked like a meat sandwich, wrapped in meat, served in a meat sauce on a meat plate.

Let's see how he recovers, if he does at all.

Keeping the old with the new

passionately objective — Wed, 07 May 2008 21:36:10 -0000

Hello friends, and thank you for reading my first blog on GSoM.

Chris Mullin's job is to maintain the balance of youth and experience in order to continue the organizational health of the Warriors. Here is one thing that I think he needs to do in order to ensure he acccomplishes that goal.

Pick up the phone, and make a call. If you have to, keep making calls until you have a good trade in terms of value for Al Harrington. Al Harrington is the 2nd highest paid player on the Warriors, but by far is not the 2nd best player on the team. I have him rated the 5th on the roster, behind Stephen Jackson, Baron Davis, Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins.

He was not a true starter for the Warriors this past season, being used as a 6th man at times. He is a 4 that is sometimes put into the 5 hole when the W's go small, but he can't defend like a 4 or a 5, and didn't rebound well either. So although he has a nice perimiter game, at times, he is severely lacking in the two areas the W's need help with most: rebounding and defense.

The good news is that he has shown flashes of offensive brilliance that will make him an attractive trading chip for a prospective team, especially one that is points starved. His salary isn't so high that makes trading him near impossible, and it would open up an opportunity for Brandan Wright to get some significant minutes. Should they be resigned, Patrick O'Bryant, Matt Barnes and MP would potentially see more minutes as well.

With Mullin all but guaranteeing that Ellis and Biedrins will be locked up for a while, that would give the W's some payroll flexibility while accomplishing the oppotunities for others with "addition by subtraction". Mullin has to be careful not to overspend when retaining Biedrins and Ellis, but I think he's learned that.

The next question is what to do about Davis. Will he or won't he opt out? Will he opt out and resign at a lower salary to benefit the team (probably not), or can the Warriors get some value out of a trade for him before he plays this season out and walks?

The great GMs know that it's better to make a move a year too early rather than a year too late. Hopefully, Mully knows how to keep the old with the new.

Four letter words.

passionately objective — Wed, 07 May 2008 20:12:07 -0000

IF: (ERA - WHIP) x (X + OBP) = Playoffs, then X = ?

It's funny what a difference a year makes, and doesn't make. Here are some interesting stats (at least to me) that I'd like to share, and no, the equation that you see is not remotely factual. All stats, however, are factual, prior to any games being played today.

Oakland is 3rd in the AL behind BOS and DET with a .339 OBP.

Not surprising at all to say the least, if you've read or heard of Moneyball. At the end of the season last year, 2007, the A's finished with a .338 OBP, which was good enough for 6th in the AL. No too terribly different, yet somehow these A's are faring far better than last year?

Oakland as a team is hitting .254 in 2008, 8th best in the AL.

That's not at all suprising to me, considering the past few years since the A's have been, to put it mildly, offensively challenged. Would it surprise you to know that in 2007 the team batted .256, which was 13th best in the AL? Slightly better average than this year, even if just by a hair.

Oakland has hit 18 HRs.....the worst teams are KC and MIN, with 16 HRs.

Where has all the power gone? In 2007 the A's hit 171 HRs, which was 7th best in the AL, and so far this season they're second to last in HRs. What ever happened to patience AND power? The Rangers have twice as many HRs as the A's, with 36.

How are the A's doing it? Enter the four letter word: RISP.

Oakland is 1st in the entire MLB, hitting at a .315 clip with RISP

Last year, the A's were hitting a miserable .246 with runners in RISP. So they're getting on base at virtually the same rate, but now they're doing something about it. Although the A's have virtually the same BA and OBP, and have been hitting fewer HRs, their RISP is through the roof. As a reslt of the RISP being so high, it has shot the A's from the bottom 1/3 of the AL in RBI and Runs scored to the top 1/3 of the league.

The season is young and alot can change, like Emil Brown's refusal to not drive in runs, but timely hitting has made the entire difference offensively for the A's, because the other mentioned stats are nearly identical to last years offensive team stats.

Did I mention the pitching yet?

The team ERA is #1 in all of MLB.

The 3.09 ERA is the best in the bigs, whereas last years mark of 4.28 was good enough for 6th in the AL.

- Walks: 2008 - 4th in AL / 2007 - 8th in AL

- Strikeouts: 2008 - Tied for 2nd in AL / 2007 - 9th in AL

- WHIP: 2008 - 1st in MLB / 2007 - 6th in AL

The ball drops here:

The A's, long known for defense and pitching, have committed 27 errors in 2008.

It gets uglier, the only team in the AL that have committed more errors than the A's are the Texas Rangers. Ouch, that's not a distinction that anyone would want to have. In other news, Cust is responsible for 25 of Oakland's 27 errors...kidding.

The good news:

The return of a healthy Chavez, if that ever happens, will assuredly help the A's defensively. As time goes on, Sweeney and Barton will sooner or later learn the fact that any ground ball hit to the right side of the field belongs to Mark Ellis, and that they need only to cover the bag and catch his throw. I'd also assume that Cust doesn't want to pull any Canseco's anytime soon, and he's working on catching the ball.

For those of you still counting, X = RISP.

Go A's.

All's fair in love and Baseball

passionately objective — Wed, 07 May 2008 17:18:27 -0000

At the end of the final season of Barry Zito's contract (2006), the A's conceded that they could not afford to resign the beloved lefty. The sound of thousands of teenage (and otherwise) broken hearts echoed across the East Bay, and the Barry Zito era in Oakland was all but officially over.

Then, suprisingly, it was the Giants - alawys happy to one up the A's - that swooped in and stole the ace of the staff and defacto leader of the club, at the tune of $126M. It's funny how things work out, because everyone this side of the sun knows how the rest of that story has gone so far.

Fast forward to present day, where the Giants find themselves in a rebuilding mode of sorts. In the midst of this rebuilding mode, one Rajai Davis hits a terrible slump. Out of options, he gets picked up on waivers by these Oakland Athletics. Curious move considering the depth that the A's have in the OF, but welcomed by myself since I'd admired Rajai's talent from across the bay since his arrival last season. How did he go from the toast of KNBR (which isn't saying much) to the latest great move by the A's front office?

Rajai's stats in 12 games w/ SF (yahoo sports)

Season	Avg.	SLG	G	AB	R	H	TB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	E
2008-SFG	.056	.056	12	18	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	6	4	0	0

Rajai's stats in 11 games w/ OAK

Season	Avg.	SLG	G	AB	R	H	TB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	E
2008-OAK	.333	.476	11	21	3	7	10	1	1	0	4	1	3	1	0	0

I understand that it's early in the season, and players always have ups and downs, but this is pretty impressive and substantial improvement over almost two equal sample sizes. The A's acqusition of Davis, and the Giants signing of Zito is (fairly or unfairly) yet another feather in Beane's genius cap, and another blemish on Sabean's resume.

Rajai's stats with the A's can be written off as a hot streak, which I do not refute, but that's not necessarily what this is about. This example does more to tell the saga that has been the Oakland Athletics and San Francisco Giants over the past 10 years. So while the Giants have had Bonds, the home runs, the splash hits, the ballpark, the All Star Game, and the allure that is the city of San Francisco:

Nothing compares to a winner, and it's a reminder that all's fair in love and baseball.

Go A's.