Matt Moore had terrible command last start and some, including myself, wondered whether he was hurt or sick. While he won't appear in a box score for another 4 or 5 days he did pitch yesterday. He played in a minor league game, I believe because Hellickson was scheduled to go the same day. I think Hellickson would have rather faced the minor league squad.

http://aeryssports.com/cowbell-clankers/rays-winding-down-the-spring-and-gearing-up-for-the-season/

Michael Pineda - There have been quite a few questions about his velocity. The good news is the work on his changeup is progressing. He did come to camp heavier than last year. Many are downplaying the velocity but I think there is reason to be concerned. Last year Pineda was down 4-5mph in the last month. And his arm slot was lowered. Normally when pitchers tire at the end of a season they lose control not velocity. And a change of arm slot often happens when a pitcher is sore or hurt, of course there are other reasons to change arm slot.

Today Pineda was 88-89 in the first inning. In the second inning there were some 88-89 but quite a few 91's as well. In the third he touched 93 once, had four 92's and a couple 91. The majority were still in the 88-89 range (it was about a 30 pitch inning). After 50 pitches his fastball velocity was probably right at 90.

He threw a decent amount of changes and they looked ok but a little hard coming in 5mph less than his fastball. He also threw some cutters at 86 and they were ok. I heard last start he had a really nice cutter going.

Mike Trout - He was ill to begin the camp and now is dealing with shoulder tendinitis so is playing at DH. There is a great article about him on ESPN. The thing I noticed was Eddie Bane gives Trout an 80 power grade. Really? I would love to hear what other scouts grade his power at. Bane also mentioned Trout would have a higher speed grade but grades above 80 just are not given out.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2012/story/_/id/7731678/los-angeles-angels-thinking-big-picture-mike-trout

Neftali Feliz - He was scheduled to go three innings last appearance but could only go two. The Rangers are saying all the right things about how "normal" this is but Feliz had shoulder tightness last time they tried to stretch him out. And he had shoulder "tightness" when as a starter going only 5 innings per start. Further, it seems he had some real problems this spring having consistent command of his secondaries, specifically his curve.

Feliz did throw his bullpen and it appears his shoulder is ok. He is behind the eight ball a little, needing to build up arm strength and get command of his curve. There is a good chance he goes back to the pen.

Daniel Bard - There appears to be a struggle between Cherington and Valentine with both Iglesias and Bard. Last start Bard wouldn't throw his change and focused on results instead of improving his change. Valentine definitely wasn't happy about this. The announcers in todays game are complementing Bard and how much more he has thrown his change today, but so far it's only 4 changeups in 4 innings. Between his change and his poor command there is a good chance Bard is heading back to the pen.

Dustin McGowan - what everyone is talking about is he might make the starting rotation after multiple injuries. What's more important is how good his stuff has been looking. But the biggest news? He had a normal offseason and will be able to throw between starts this year. Last year I was wondering why his offspeed pitches lacked bite and consistency - then we found out that he wasn't able to throw between starts. He is still a longshot but the upside seems to be back.

Brett Cecil - It's not only Phil Hughes that lost weight this offseason. Last year he came into camp fat and was down in velocity. He is in better shape this year, lets see if some of the velocity is back.

Brandon Morrow - He is focusing on making his curve his primary out pitch. I like this. Last year it was the slider which was great for getting K's. But Morrow has some trouble getting in-zone strikes on it. This year his slider will become more of his two strike pitch. If he can consistently get strikes on his curve expect to see his K rate drop but most of his other peripherals to improve. This could be a big year for him. I don't expect this to be the year he becomes an ace, but I could see him pitching more like a #2 should (but with #3 numbers due to the AL East).

Henderson Alvarez - Last season saw him change from a slider to a cutter. Farrell doesn't like to call it a cutter just a shortened slider since the grip is so similar and are just variations of each other. Alvarez put up fantastic numbers but he needs something to move to the left. It looked like the slider wasn't going to work, it just wasn't consistent enough. Hopefully this cutter can do the trick. My two biggest questions about him would be whether he can master the cutter and how he deals without an eye-level changing pitch. The cutter doesn't have to be special but it does need to be both consistent and have some late shape. If he can be a #3 pitcher this year the Jays would be thrilled, I'm just hoping for a #4 type guy.

Jesse Litsch - looks like more injury woes for him unfortunately

Hitters

Adeiny Hechavarria -he is getting work at 2B. The TBJ brass still sees him as a shortstop but he is considered their number one middle IF call-up if there is a substantial injury. Or in case Kelly Johnson sucks. According to reports his D has been fantastic at short. I could see Hechavarria getting the call at some point this year, injuries happen and who knows what they will get out of Johnson.

Travis Snider - has looked good so far but breaking balls were a problem for him in the past and this early in spring pitchers are not consistent. I hope he finally breaks out.

Brett Lawrie - defense continues to improve. Before last season he was considered questionable to make the switch to 3B and was solid last year with some flashes of brilliance but also some sloppy mistakes. He continues to improve and many see him becoming a plus defender.

Overall outlook

Their starting pitching will be better but unless Morrow or someone really steps up to the #2 role it won't be a big improvement. The bullpen will be light years better. It's not that Sergio Santos is a "closer" but that he is dominant and the innings 7 and 8 should have solid guys filling it. Last year mop-up guys filled key roles. I could see the hitting improve especially if Snider breaks out, or Lind doesn't have a second half swoon, or Rasmus plays like he is capable of.

I don't see the playoffs for them: that division is too good and they have too many questions. Also their minor league system is fantastic but a little ways away from helping them. If they are truly in the hunt then maybe they could parlay some minor league talent into MLB help.

I watched him pitch against Pittsburgh and was a little surprised by what I saw. Since I had nosebleed seats I couldn't see much of the pitch movement.

What I saw:

The Good

Obviously the results were good including the K's

He had a lot of weak contact

Was willing to throw breaking balls inside a lot to LH batters

The Bad

Velocity was down. About 92 or 93 and highest I saw was 95. I think the Toronto gun is slow though.

Mechanics looked horrible. He had different body action, release points, arm action for all of his pitches. When throwing normal fastball it looked nice and fluid. When going with a change it was an exaggerated slowdown at the end just before release. When he wanted extra velocity or movement he had way more body rotation falling down and to his left a lot and the ball tended to miss in that direction. When throwing the breaking balls he also fell down and to his left but less exagerrated.

Overall

From what I hear he has a lot of late life, obviously I couldn't see that from my seats. And his velocity was down or the gun was low. I think it was a bit of both. I have seen him before and really liked the stuff. But this is the first time I saw him from this angle and thought his body control was beyond terrible. Maholm was similar but not as bad. But I was very surprised. Maybe it was an off day? I would love to hear from others.

IMO until he cleans this up he won't move into that upper echelon of starters. On the flip-side he has been heating up in spite of these problems and it's certainly easier to improve things like landing points and arm action versus trying to improve stuff and/or location.

It was expected Miller would be the number one pick but he fell to the Tigers due to signability as well as other reasons. The Tigers were agressive with him and he only pitched 78 innings in the minors in 2007. It wasn't until 2010 that he would pitch that many innings again in the minors.

 Andrew always had a great arm with plus velocity especially for a lefty. He had a wipeout slider that he had trouble locating within the zone and didn't have the best control of his fastball. But his development path didn't help improve his weaknesses, it only exposed him to MLB hitters who took advantage of what they saw. It looked like he was a bust. And unfortunately many tried to evaluate why he was viewed so highly - instead of looking at the total failure to develop the prospect.

When Boston acquired him I took note of it. And when the mentioned how good his stuff still was and their intentions to be patient with him I started to follow him very closely. His spring training showed what he was capable of. And his first couple of starts showed the good K rates, low hits, and good control. But his control reverted to the Miller of old frequently going only 4 or 5 innings with around 4 walks per.

Eventually Andrew took a huge step forward. He asked for help. The pitching coach gave him a tip that Buchholz uses. He does extra warming up before the game and goes at it much harder simulating an inning. The next three starts for Miller featured he same strong strikeout rate and low hits. All this while allowing only two walks total in these three innings.

 The reason I think this lesson will stick is something many never knew about Miller. His control issues were mostly to do with the start of the game and settling in. He now has a mechanism to combat this. At 26 years of age and with his talent I don't see why he can't have a very strong career.

I think the biggest thing to take from this, other than the enjoyment of watching a success story, is how much we neglect the development process of prospect evaluation.

I know there was a lot of skepticism of him. Whether it was implying it was all PEDs or a lucky year people were willing to write him off.

I don't believe he's as good as he has been playing. In the past he went on some huge hot streaks. But I do think he's for real. Last year he actually got better as pitchers adjusted to him. And this year he has been phenomenal. I figure a line of 270 400 600 is entirely in his reach. Maybe 40 to 45 HR's. With solid D in RF he is one of the best players in baseball.

fyi:

IMO the whole PEDs discussion was a joke. If it was that easy to go from 14 or so homers to 54 by taking PEDs wouldn't every other aspiring player take the same concoction? Further, not only did he show huge power potential but in the September of 09 he started to break out in a big way. This doesn't mean he hasn't taken, I have no idea who has.

From what I have read he worked all 2009 on eliminating the hitch in his swing and didn't show results until the end of the year when it became natural. There are quite a few star and even HOF players that had similar problems and needed to adjust. As much as we tease Joe Morgan about some of his sayings he has been bang on about several players with regards to this. If a player has a hitch in their swing MLB pitchers can easily throw off their timing.

Some players will go to parks that are favourable or unfavourable to them. Or leagues. And of course some players will be repeating or pushed agressively.

For fantasy purposes there is nothing better than knowing which players you expect to struggle and then be ready to jump on them when you get the chance. If you are any good in your league fellow team members will be very cautious if you show interest in a player. I prefer to get a list of players I expect to do very well and go after them agressively in the offseason. And those players that I expect to struggle I list and when I'm trading try to get that player added in.

Having said that, I haven't followed the minors as much this year. What players are going into difficult situations and you expect to struggle? And which have easy assignments and you expect to do well?

thanks!

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/38729036/ns/sports-baseball/

I'm not one to wish an injury on anyone. But when I read this I just thought it was poetic justice.

I was surprised at the Mets for not taking stronger action. And surprised at Manuel for backing him up and then saying he can't say why he is backing him up because of legal issues. Really. From what I read of the incident his sort-of father in law (they are common law married) called him out and Rodgriguez's mother started yelling at the father in law who swore back at her. And so he began to pummel him. I understand backing up your mom. But beating up the grandfather of your children? Who is 30 years older than you? In public? At your work-place? With other families there? Wow!

I understand you are running a team and a lot of things are, and should be, ignored. But I also think teams should have high standards in certain areas. And if a team let's behaviour go then they start to become more and more dysfunctional. It just seems to happen to the same teams over and over, while the top teams seem to have more accountability.

What's your thoughts on this?

I would like to clear a few things up.

1. It is not 2 months of Cliff Lee. It would be 3 months for the rest of the season. But it's really 4 months as they are aiming for the playoffs (anyone aquiring him).
2. Poll the GM's. They would prefer 2 months of Cliff Lee over a year. They only pay a portion of the salary. More importantly they only pay the salary and give up prospects if they are 100% in the playoff chase.
3. When talking value of Star A (in shortened time frame) versus Prospect B (with full control) it's best to evaluate fairly. Cliff Lee will help Texas (or other org) for 2010 only. It's not 2 months it's one year. But it's certainly not 5 years either. But let's look deeper:

• Texas only makes the playoffs every 5 years or so (ok I'm lazy to look it up and I know it's less often). Cliff Lee or Star A would help them in that one year they are in the playoffs. Prospect B will be there for 5 years but we can only expect one year in which he helps a playoff team. Yeah, with Texas I expect/hope this will become more frequent but we can't count on it.
• Most of a prospects value hinges on their low cost to the team. If they are high cost then a free agent can replace them easily. Prospect B thus has more "apparent" value when he develops slowly. Of course he then gives only a small amount of value to the team then. If he has a meteoric rise then 2-3 years in he will be paid like a free agent (less the years commitment). This negates the value over the Star A as the prospect is now paid like a free agent.
• Value of the prospect. Many mention the 2-4 million paid to the prospect. That is sunk cost just like the sunk costs from the other side of the trade.
• Value of compensatory picks. They usually don't equate the same value as what came over in the trade. Not important. If the Twins trade Ramos and Hicks for Lee it's really Ramos + Hicks for Lee + picks. That doesn't sound as sexy to me.
• Purpose. It's not to make the playoffs. Or to compete. It's to win the World Series. All fans expect their teams to take the shot when they have the chance. As it stands Minnesota & Texas have almost no chance of making the World Series. The addition of Lee makes them a World Series contender.
• Comparing to CC. When CC was on the market he had poor playoff series. He also had a poor ERA for Cleveland in an excellent pitchers park. And he is fat. Many questions. It wasn't until after the trade to Milwaukee that he answered all the questions. He was unbelievable. And thus the NY contract.
• C. Lee. A few years ago he might have went for less. He was an enigma. But after pitching with serious injuries for a year or two he really emerged. He backed up a dominant season with another. He was traded to another league, to a pitching park, to a competitor. And he excelled. Then in the playoffs he took another step. Then in Seattle he has taken another forward. Why would he get more? It's pretty obvious to me.

http://www.projo.com/redsox/content/projo-20100623-ryan-westmoreland-update.cae7e935.html

excerpt:

Ryan Westmoreland played catch the other day. When he was the top prospect in the Red Sox system, before his brain surgery, playing catch was part of the everyday routine. Now, the 20-year-old labors to do things that once came naturally, and a simple game of catch is no longer so simple.

He was in the yard of his parents’ Portsmouth home, tossing the ball with his girlfriend, Charlene Colameta, and his childhood friend, Dan Dugan. The first time Dugan saw his friend try to throw a ball post-surgery, only a month had passed since the operation, and Westmoreland’s brain couldn’t yet send the right signals to his body. The ball traveled only 3 feet or so, Dugan said.

I will try to write-up some reviews on the players I wrote scouting reports on earlier in the year. I was going to start with Matusz but what with Porcello getting optioned I changed my schedule.

There are an awful lot of changes from the 2010 version versus the 2009 version of Porcello.

2009

• Didn't throw as hard and didn't throw his 4 seamer enough IMO
• Threw a curve (but that changed as the season progressed)
• Was a lot more consistent
• Had better consistent movement on his fastball

2010

• Throws much harder this year. This was a conscious effort from the beginning of spring training
• Has totally removed the curve
• The velocity has done strange things to his fastball. At times he is getting 94 or 95 with sick movement. And at times it's flat even when he is trying to move it.

Last year he was pounding the zone consistently and hitters were putting it into play but with weak contact. The curve he couldn't locate for strikes so I can understand him putting it away. For now.

This year his velocity is up and I've seen some really sick sinkers that make hitters look foolish. But too often two sick pitches are followed up by a flat fastball that is hammered. His slider is solid but hitters are already looking for pitches down that move down.

Analysis/Suggestions

• He found success last year with a solid formula but wanted to change to become even better. He will have growing pains. This needs to be worked out in the minors.
• He needs to get consistency on his fastball. Know when it will sink and when he wants it to be flat. The flat pitches are important, love them in the bottom of the zone to steal strikes. That way next time a pitch is in the bottom of the zone the hitter is swinging, they hate getting called out on stolen strikes.
• He needs to bring back his curve. He can't really use it at the MLB level 4-5 times a game. Needs it where he can throw it for first pitch strikes. This will take time. Guys that are primarily fastball control/movement (like Halladay, Feldman, Webb, etc.) really need a consistent breaking ball. Doesn't have to be dominant, has to be very consistent though. People forget how good Doc's curve is especially for throwing strikes.
• It would be nice to improve the change. But I wouldn't be comfortable having him work on it in the minors. He has too much to work on right now. Getting that fastball under control is #1. Getting that curve to consistently throw strikes is #2.
• It would also be nice to have that slider a little better. Like throwing it at the top of the zone to drop in for strikes. I probably wouldn't have him work on that either.

I think he will be fine. If you can get him in a league go for it. I think the hype is justified.

I believe in defensive value. When a player is better than average at his position he will give you positive value and when worse than average he will give you negative value.

I even believe positions like SS and CF give an elite player more opportunities and thus they have the possibility if good enough to have more positive D value than others. And a truly bad player at these positions conversely could have a bigger negative D value as well.

I also think there is value in these positions because come trade time usually there are more players available at lesser D positions, but this is not always the case.

What I've not understood is intrinsic D value in the position itself. This definitely works in roto baseball.

I guess my question is this: If your team goes out and spends $25 million per year on a player like Mauer or Hanley Ramirez are they getting D positional value to go along with the bat? In Mauer's case they will get D value where he is over and above the average catcher. But do they get value in his being a catcher?

Many will use replacement level but there are many serious problems with this. First of all replacement values are high - almost average player high.

My example is this: Pujols or Mauer. It's not perfect. But if your team could add one for $25 million which would help your team more. Let's assume Mauer hits like he did last year. Many would immediately assume Mauer because he is a catcher and their team might have a star 1B already. But when you look at true value - adding Pujols would then mean taking Pena/Tex/Papi/etc. off the books. And adding Mauer would mean taking Varitek/Olivo/etc. off the books.

So immediately we see the big offensive upgrade on Mauer. But we only take a 1 or 2 million contract off. And a lesser impact adding Pujols but then taking a 15 million or so contract off. While replacement players might be better at less skilled positions I think their contracts offset this. And this matters to most teams in the majors. Even the Yankees have 2 fairly weak hitters in their lineup, and that is with stars in their skilled positions.

I do believe there is a small amount of value in flexibility and scarcity at trading time. But not much other than that.

Fastball

• Throws it in the low to mid 90s. Typically 92-94
• Tails down and in on RH hitters.
• Consistent break
• Solid command

Cutter

• Throws it similar velocity to his fastball, maybe a touch less
• Excellent late movement
• Fangraphs had it as the 3rd best pitch in baseball, many scouts love it
• Very consistent with it.
• Combining the two pitches both with velocity and excellent movement and look identical until one breaks right the other left - this is a huge weapon for him

Slider

• Hard downward movement
• Very good chase pitch

Change

• Much improved pitch
• Nice movement, very similar to his fastball
• Good separation velocity, around 12mph difference

Curve

• I sometimes have trouble separating the curve and slider because of the downward movement
• Good pitch, needs to use it more

History

• Feldman was a decent reliever but I doubt too many saw him as a starter
• He had an almost sidearm delivery
• Breaking pitches were not that good but very good fastball
• Two years ago his arm angle was raised a little and he worked on the cutter
• Last year his arm angle raised even more. The cutter became a dominant pitch. The curve and slider gained a lot more depth. Even the change improved.

Future

• Its hard to say how much he will improve. For those looking for a regression I dont see it
• His tailing fastball and cutter combo is deadly. But its his change, curve, and slider that will determine how good he becomes.
• I remember watching a game late in the season. He was dominant but too many pitches. The announcers mentioned if he used the fastball more he might go deep into the game. Inwardly I was crying. And the catcher called what they asked for and he got crushed for a 5spot. 2 games in a row this happened. For a guy throwing 70% fastball you cant up the usage. I hope he learned the lesson that as dominant as they can be he still needs to mix it up.
  
  
  
  

Francisco Liriano - I don't think there is a pitcher in all of baseball with the upside of Liriano. He had an electric fastball and an unhittable slider before the surgery. Now his changeup is vastly improved. His control was never good but last year set new lows. But that's ok, with TJ surgery that was expected. It sounds like his stuff has recovered but not to the point it was before injury. That's ok with his improved change.

He was bad last year but that was more about making too many mistakes. This year those mistakes should be less and with more velocity - so they will be punished less. Expect anywhere from a 4.25 ERA to an 3.25 ERA.

Jeremy Bonderman - He had surgery 2 offseasons ago for thoracic outlet syndrome. A fancy way of saying his rib was impeding a nerve causing loss of feeling in his pitching hand. He was having a breakout year and then halfway through the season couldn't have any feel. His slider suffered and then his movement on his fastball went down.

He had surgery and came back last season. But an offseason without any throwing put him way behind everyone else. Muscles do atrophy. I think we forget how fine tuned pitchers bodies become. Anyways, he struggled all season to recover his velocity but never really recovered his stuff.

From reports it sounds like he has the movement back on his fastball. If he has this and his slider he can become a dominant pitcher once again. I am still worried as he is a bit behind other pitchers. This doesn't match with the rest of the info we are reading, why is he behind?

Dustin McGowan - will he ever recover to the potential he has?

He had rotator cuff problems at the end of his first successful season. But JP kept this quiet and had Dustin pitch the next year. And he hurt the shoulder further with capsule damage I believe. I think the labrum damage was minor. We shall see. ps:I hate JP.

Last season Dustin was rehabbing and injured his knee and had to shut down for the year. That's probably a good thing. At least now he might be protected.

I really have no idea what kind of stuff he will have. Before the injuries his stuff was as good as just about anyone. The only concern I had was his stiff landing which really messed up his location at times. Hello Billingsley.

Bedard - for this season I wouldn't be counting on him. It looks like there is a good chance he misses 2-3 months

Bedard is certainly intriguing because of his stuff for a lefty, high k's, and stretches of utter dominance. I'm not high on him because of too many injury concerns combined with stretches where he looks just average. Nothing wrong with that but in any league someone will always be paying for that ace potential

Any thoughts or other candidates? More to come...

I don't think there is a need for a report on him but there was some interest.

Fastball

• Velocity averaged 92.5 I think. A drop from 2008. From watching it he was 93-95 early in the game and then the velocity decreased. Occasionally he would reach back for extra later in the game.
• Excellent late life. Sometimes a ton of hard late life. Most of the time good late life, but he does throw some flatter fastballs as well.
• Tailing action similar to his change. Just doesn't dive down like the change.
• Doesn't seem afraid to come inside
• Throws a lot of strikes
• Location is an issue. He doesn't have very good command. With his velocity, movement, and secondary pitches it shouldn't get as much hard contact as it does. But he frequently throws in bad locations.

Change

• Nice tailing action with solid downward movement
• Can throw it for strikes or use as a chase pitch. Not hittable when used as a chase pitch
• I've seen hitters sit on the change and crush it. I've also seen a hitter sit on the change only to get 3 grooved fastballs down the middle with his bat on his shoulder. I doubt he does that again.
• I saw one game where Cincy hitters sat on breaking pitches. The first 4 hitters had 2 hard hits, one hard hit out and a walk. I'm not saying this to slag him, this happens to anyone. It's more in response to a poster who didn't think hitters sit on change-ups.
• Gets lots of strikes in the zone and lots of strikes chasing out of the zone
• Excellent pitch

Curve

• I've heard he throws 2 types but I've seen 3. He throws a pitch that he calls a slider curve (or something) but Molina says is just a hard curve, then he throws his regular curve and he also throws a get me over once in a while.
• Doesn't have the consistency with this pitch like he does with the change. Maybe because he throws it less?
• Can be an excellent weapon when hitters are chasing or he commands it well that day. It's a decent 3rd pitch.

Outlook

• There is some concern over the velocity drop. As it stands he has plenty. If it drops more I still think he will be a quality pitcher but nothing like he is right now. Not without some other improvement to offset it
• He gets away with poor command of his fastball because of the late life and the velocity.If the velocity drops I think it starts to get hit harder. What will he do, throw it less? He threw it only 53% or some amazing number like that.
• Lincecum should be one of the best pitchers in baseball this year but I don't like the trend of lost velocity and going away from his fastball

I love what he brings and especially his change. While I mention it is hittable when sat on I prefer a pitch that can be thrown consistently for strikes more than an unhittable pitch that gets way too many balls. That's AJ Burnett territory. And I really love the movement on his fastball. I have a lot of red flags (fastball command, velocity loss in 2009, velocity loss in game, diminishing fastball usage, size) for him but his stuff is so good at the moment it doesn't matter.

And the answer is yes, I do know I will get an awful lot of comments from "Timmy" fans.

Hitting

• Obviously he stunk the first two months
• Heard a lot about the problem being hand placement as pitcher was delivering the pitch. Come on, a timing issue causing one of the most feared hitters to become the worst?
• Horrible at getting on inside pitches. Got reviews on his doubles against the wall on inside pitches. haha. Fighting off inside pitches for doubles off the wall is a sign of how smart a hitter he is. And a sign of how limited he was
• Last several months he was much better. Had top power in the AL but didn't bring the batting average and other numbers with it. IMO still limited

Health

• Had severe wrist problems in 2009
• More importantly couldn't swing a bat last offseason. Sure he was healthy for spring training. But had 0 power leading into the spring training.
• Had severe shoulder issues in 2009. While reports say it's a non-issue it was also stated he went to Boston in the fall from the DR to get cortisone shots. That's not a non-issue.
• Fat. Was more fat than ever before. It's ok when you have plus bat speed.

Steroids/Drugs

• So much talk about this. But his numbers after testing started still had huge power. So either he is doing HGH or other stuff and his power hasn't gone. Or he stopped drugs but still hit for power. Or never did drugs. Either way I think it's a non-issue.
  

Outlook

• Lost a lot of weight which is ok. It looks good for media but who really cares. Fat guys can hit.
• More importantly he is working out and swinging a bat. This is huge.
• Some concern over the shoulder issue. That is my only concern.
• Obviously the health of his father affected him. I can't even begin to speculate how this will affect him.

As far as I'm concerned he is in for a huge bounce back year. There is a risk with his shoulder. But I think he is one of the best bets to have a really big return in 2010.

At the beginning of the season there was some talk about Edwin and a little hype. Not as much as he deserved but I guess with Verlander and a younger Porcello that will happen. And when he struggled at the end of the year I heard a lot of talk about career year or BABIP. I really like what he brings. His high heat, being very agressive, and a nice slider.

Fastball

• Typically around 95 with a little late life
• Can reach high 90's but not very often
• It's not effortless but he isn't just a thrower
• Location is decent for his velocity
• Very agressive with it. Doesn't try to be too fine. Will throw inside.

Slider

• Inconsistent
• Can be an excellent pitch.
• Varies from bouncing it, throwing a decent chase slider, and a hard biting slider for strikes that isn't very hittable

2010

• Started out excellent, dominating in the AL Central.
• Schedule wasn't too difficult but he was a strike throwing machine.
• One game against the Blue Jays he threw about 10 out of 11 first pitch strikes with 2 or 3 being sliders.
• Heard many reports about his late struggles being due to his slider. That it was tipped or less movement.
• IMO the real problem was being tired. Late in the season he stopped throwing strikes. He also lowered his arm angle. And he exceeded previous innings pitched. These symptoms = tired. His velocity was the same but location is always the first thing to go
• Slider was less effective at the end of the season due to the arm angle. But that wasn't a big deal. It was all those 2-0 counts instead of 1-2 counts he was racking up early in the season.

Outlook

• I think he is the real deal and while the park will hurt him the NL will definitely help. Not only the 8 and 9 hole but also the usage of fastballs more in the NL.
• Edwin throws his slider too much for my liking but because he throws his fastball so much it's still at a safe amount. 27.4% is too high though, so there is some risk. FYI: Brett Anderson through 32% last year.
• I think he does need to develop his change and throw it more. Or another pitch. But his annual progression has been too strong to think this will hold him back. Without it though he won't become an ace. That's ok, I see a quality #2 as his ceiling anyways.

After watching him a few times and reading all the reports on him I had mixed feelings. After watching him a lot more I have a totally different opinion.

Fastball

• 92-94 does go as low as 89 and does touch 96. But sits 92-94.
• Solid location. Occasional lapses of command.
• Some games had no control, but usually attacked the zone.
• Would attack inside on RH hitters
• Typically down in the zone but would go up in the zone
• I've read his pitch has lots of life. It's not flat. But not much life. That's cool though, for his velocity and location it's more than plenty.

Curveball

• More of a slurve pitch now
• Occasionally has true curve break
• Very new pitch to him. I think it had been shelved for more than a year. Maddux brought it back in 2nd or 3rd game in MLB.
• While he can have trouble locating it for strikes it's hard to hit.
• Struggled when hitters laid off of it. Since they laid off the low or inside breaking ball he countered by hanging some high in the zone that got clobbered.
• Has a curve velocity but I think release point is his difficulty. Once he gets that under control he will get better control. My question is: with a consistent release point what type of curve will he have. If it's to be a slurve then he will have struggles against patient teams. If it's a consistent curve break then it's projected as a much better pitch.

Slider

• I heard how great it was. Wow. I'm not sure what they watched. Or did I just see something different?
• 85 mph slider with very little movement
• Worked fine when he backdoored it to RH hitters. Almost acts like a tailing fastball. Except it doesn't break late. And it doesn't have velocity. But it can steal some strikes when used properly. I wouldn't shelve it, just use it about 3-4 times a game to steal a strike on 0-0 counts.

Change

• The announcers mentioned this was his best pitch.
• Personally I didn't see one pitch that was clearly a change.
• I saw many that were the velocity of either the change or the slider or the curve
• The slider had little movement and didn't look like a slider, so I could understand some mistaking it for a change. And it was 85 which is well within the range of what his change would be.
• The curve confused because it was a slurve. But it shouldn't be confused with the change. It was 15+ mph less than the fastball.

Outlook

• I really like his fastball
• I didn't like him nearly as much until I found out his curve had been shelved. It had it's warts. But I'm very impressed with it considering it was shelved and then just brought back.
• Without a real change against patient good hitting RH teams he will get lit up. Fortunately there are not many teams that do this.
  
• If his curve improves he could be looking at an upside of a solid #2 pitcher. Yeah, if the curve is totally dominant or the change becomes a weapon he could be more. But potential for #1 is so much more rare than people are willing to admit.

Fastball

• 4seam is around 93-94 that occasionally hits 96. I saw one reading of 99. Flat fastball but great velocity. Command is poor especially when he is overthrowing (normal problem though).
  
• 2seam is around 90 with good boring action. Great for ruining bats of RH hitters. Very little downward action. Not to be used as a feature pitch though. In spots can be a very good weapon.

Curveball

• Some games is more of a slurve. Other games can be 12-6 curve. Also loses grip and sails a lot high, bounces too many. Not too big a deal though, it should improve over time.
• Can be a devastating pitch at times.

Changeup

• Very flat but at least good arm action.
• I heard it was a split-change. But after seeing it and seeing a closeup of the grip it's a circle-change. It's something he has been working on this season.
• Sometimes he gets nice tail action on it making it a real weapon against LH hitters. Maybe 2 per game.
  
• Needs a lot of work. He must get consistent tail action or must get some solid downward motion. It's very flat. When you combine with a flat fastball it's not good.

Prognosis

• He throws very hard. But gets hit incredibly hard. I haven't seen a guy with his stuff get hit as hard as he does in a while.
• Getting consistency in his curve is a must. I expect it will happen, just a matter of repetitions. The question is really a matter if it becomes a consistent slurve (ughh), the consistent dominant curve, or something in between
• Unless that curve becomes dominant he needs something against LH hitters. That fastball is too hittable. He needs that change to improve. If he does then the fastball will play bigger.
• He could improve fastball command and the other issues would be a lot less important. After all 95 on the paint with an erratic but sometimes dominant curve and a get me over change can put up good numbers. I just don't see the command changing over night. He puts far too many in very hittable areas.

He is talented but raw. With the velocity he has and the ability to occasionally get very good breaking stuff I see a lot of potential. Many reports I hear say potential ace and worst case #3. I think that is overstating it a lot. Sure, he could become an ace. But there is a lot of work ahead. And he could be an awful lot worse than a #3.

I really like him and his upside. Of course I won't be touching him in any league though, too many see him as the equivalent of a player like Brett Anderson.

Fastball - He has four different kinds.

• Four seamer that he can throw anywhere from 93 to 95. He can throw even harder (up to 97) but rarely does.
• Two seamer with solid downward action. Very consistent action but not the hardest late break. Typically 89 to 92. Sometimes I've seen him as low as 86 and sometimes up to 94.
• Two seamer with decent downward action and good tailing action. Works this pitch well in on the hands of RH batters. Needs to use it inside on LH hitters more often. Could also back-door it on RH hitters more.
• Two seamer with nasty late break. Maybe 2-3 a game where it's just filthy. It's just a variation of the normal 2 seamer, but if he can do this more often watch out.
  

Curveball

• Typically a hammer curve but usually breaks earlier than wanted
• Frequently it just goes high in the zone and doesn't break much. Doesn't drop back into the top of the zone to be a BP pitch. Just a ball
• Can look far too much like his changeup. Only uses it 4-5 times a game
• Will get 2-3 excellent ones a game. Shows enough to me that he should feature it more, get rid of the slider.

Slider

• Rarely uses it
• Backs up on him too often
• Ditch it - I'd rather him throw the curve more and hopefully gain more control

Change

• Very good pitch
• Again has solid or very good downward action
• Occasionally has heavy late break with tailing action. Dominant at times.
• Locates it well.
• Natural progression leads me to believe this could become a dominant weapon for him.

Prognosis: I really like the moving fastball and change-up combo. What I think hurts him is his slider, change, curve, fastball all have similar action. He needs to mix it up. I would get rid of the slider, mix in the curve more. There would be natural progression on the change. And most important - make the four seam fastball a weapon. At the end of the season he started to mix more in.

if you look at fangraphs you can see he has a low swing percent in zone. Everything he throws starts low and drops below the zone. Once a pitcher starts dropping pitches in for called strikes then hitters will start jumping at pitches instead of waiting for grooved pitches.

So start using the 4-seam on outside corners. Start stealing strikes. Back-door the tailing action 2-seamer. And work in that curve more often. The change will get better on it's own. Already a good pitch.

EDIT: One thing very difficult when scouting Porcello is separating the pitches. The actions is similar. His slider/curve/change have similar velocities. And similar motions. Pitch f/x can not be accurate with him unless they are looking in his glove and seeing the grip. I've seen him grip a 2 seam and drop the velocity and it looked like a hanging breaking ball before it got crushed. If I didn't see the grip no way I could have known the pitch. And his change and curve are so close. After watching enough you can see his curve hump up before dropping. Or not. It's hard to detect because he doesn't throw many. And half of what he throws are almost identical to his good change.

He is an excellent reason to listen to as many scouting reports as possible on young pitchers

When I first started watching Medlen pitch I thought I was going to kill BJB for requesting him. I love watching good pitching, and just hate watching pitchers succeed due to the ineptitude of the opposing lineup. And watching a pither throw 89-90 without a lot of movement just doesn't excite me. But I started to get surprised when hitters didn't make the contact they should have.

Fastball - Starting it's around 89-90. Relief it's around 92-93. Sometimes there is pronounced tail action. Most often not a lot of movement. I've heard announcers mention late life. That's possible. I see the way he hides the ball making it harder to hit than it should be. He likes to challenge the hitters. And will go up in the zone. I love that. A guy throwing 89 going up in the zone and blowing away hitters. Why can't more pitchers watch him and learn?

Curve - Solid pitch. Has good but not great movement. Good location. Typically locates it very well down in the zone. It's a nice complementary pitch. The reason I would put it a tick below plus is the movement isn't tight enough for my liking. When he throws it in the zone it gets hit. Out of the zone it's fantastic. His location with it is excellent, but the numbers won't show that. He will throw it for a ball a lot because locating in the zone will hurt him. I like the pitch and his use of it. It probably plays up to a plus pitch right now. But if he needs to throw it for strikes more then it will hurt him.

Change - Again a solid pitch. Locates it very well. Not much movement is my complaint. But still a solid pitch. He uses it to RH hitters more than most do. I like that as well.

Being a small pitcher I was expecting to see over-throwing, tiring in later innings, lots of torque, etc. But he really works within his limits. Simple motion, good control. Works low in the zone but not afraid to go up with his fastball. Breaking pitches consistently down. Sometimes works backwards, another plus.

In the pen most of the damage against him was when working consecutive days. For someone that was starting to begin the season that is expected. He has fairly good command. But I see him throwing quite a few wild pitches. They won't appear on the box score, more often it was meant to be a low fastball that becomes head height. I'll write this off as a young pitcher going through growing pains.

I don't see a reason he can't be a solid starter for Atlanta. I think if he loses a couple mph then he will be forced into the pen however.

In 1997 Shuerholtz traded Jermaine Dye for Tucker and Keith Lockhart. It was a trade that would haunt him for many years. How many world series would they have won with his bat in their lineup?

John was fuming for years about this and wanted revenge. He considered many different ways to get back at the Royals. Trade them a star pitcher whose arm was about to fall off? That sounded good to him but it wouldn't be painful enough for the already downtrodden Royals. So he thought long and hard and decided to use a similar approach to his most famous trades. That of moving a highly regarded pitcher about to combust.The ole "Trojan Horse" trick.

For this plan he needed a very special person. A person whose pedigree, rise up the system, and perceived value was only matched by his monumental ineptitude.

And in November of 2005 he implemented his long-range plan. He looked deep within his own system and promoted one Dayton Moore.

And now for some excellent reading:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/scott-podsednik-dayton-moore-and-the-contest

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/1/24/1266665/contest-an-upcoming-film-starring

OK, gotta be honest here. I have no idea how the heck I'm going to do this one. 10+ IP in the majors is way too little to evaluate a pitcher. And reading reports on him are so conflicted. Then there is velocity up and down. Etc. etc.

So how can I turn this down?

I've read a lot about him being fastball, slider, change. Sorry, I don't get that. You can't say his fastball is below 3/4 slot and yet call that a slider, it's a curve. Just account for arm angle. Anyways ...

Fastball - 86 - 92. It's not like he labours to bring the velocity up. Or that he loses location once it's at 92. It seems that he cuts a few off (what I mean is he cuts off the finish of the pitch). And it seems location is more important to him than velocity. He really seems to chew up LH hitters.

Curve - I like the fact he locates it often enough for strikes. It's not a total K pitch. Sure. Hammer Curves get more swings and misses. But this gets quite a few called strikes which is a very under-rated quality.

I've read from Keith Law (ESPN) that his fastball is below 3/4 and easily picked up. I have to disagree with that. It is below 3/4 as Mr.Law mentions. But Bumgarner does something quite unique. He pitches below 3/4 but then his hand comes over the top to finish the pitch. So while he might start with a very low armslot it ends up more traditional.

What does this do? Well, it helps get some quality movement on his curve. It helps get movement on the fastball. On top of that it helps hide his pitches. Funky deliveries like this are great. Except for what they do to the arm.

I personally have absolutely no worries about his velocity loss at the end of the season. It seemed like he was able to get the velocity when he wanted without any sacrifice. And he can add a lot of lower half strength. He is very young after all.

Prognosis - wow, I can't give the best analysis here. Maybe with another half season. What I can guess is added lower body strength and very deceptive movement giving Bumgarner a very solid season. Why can't he have 2-3 excellent seasons before disappearing?

Without big improvements in either his slider/change he won't be a factor in a couple years. But with his quirky delivery, solid fastball, + location, locatable curve, I can see 2 or 3 years of  All-star pitching from Bum.

His body of work this year is quite small and his mechanics are a work in progress, having said that here goes ...

Fastball - sits 91-92. Occasionally hits 93 or 94, more often hits 88-90. Fairly flat with no jump at the end and no big movement either. But hides it well and it appears a couple mph faster. And something that functions as a flat 94mph from a leftie is nothing to sneeze at. Locates it well and down in the zone.

Curve - 78mph with more of a slurve action. As season wore on less slurve action. I'll get to that more under mechanics. Seemed to locate it fairly well in the zone. The slurve type did get hit more than it should unless it was well out of the zone. I think it's a quality pitch because of the location and his willingness to come inside.

Change - Count me unimpressed. Their scouting director loved Matusz and said he had the best curve and change in the draft. Maybe that was because it was a pitching weak draft. But his change has very little movement. Yeah he can locate it but that's because it's fairly flat. At least it is deceptive, but watch out when facing hitters looking for the change.

Slider - Doesn't have that much action. I do like how he isn't afraid to ride it in on the hands of righties. If he does get some real action he won't be able to do this though, either too many HBP or bounced pitches will occur. I've heard average to plus - from within the organization, and show-me pitch from others. I'd lean somewhere in the middle. It doesn't have that much to it but it's consistent and he knows when and where to throw it.

Mechanics - I try to keep away from this and probably will in the future. Partially because I'm lazy. Ok, mostly. But also many pitchers really don't make drastic changes and it's so hard to predict.

Matusz was more of a 3/4 pitcher and Baltimore has been changing this. You can see in just about any game his delivery is somewhat erratic as he occasionally reverts to his old arm slot. The slurve versus the more downward curve is the most obvious. As he gets used to this I expect his control to get better.

He doesn't get much separation and is a part of the reason you don't see as much velocity as he could get. Another is his awkward stiff landing and release. Watch the video below and focus on Kershaw. Notice how Kershaw lands fairly softly on his lead leg and only after landing does he unleash - getting extra power and using the leg to stabilize. Of course on the video you will see Matusz hiding the ball very well. As he gets more upright will that go away? Maybe a little, but with the apparent late hand break I think not.

Prognosis - I really like his locating the fastball low and the late hand break hides the ball well. I like how he works his pitches, coming inside on non-traditional pitches. My big concern is to righties where his change is flat and his curve is either slurvy (great on 0-2 counts) or not that hard breaking but better location.

I think he will be a solid pitcher and can be a #3 with a high 3 ERA. And more likely will have more of his career as a #4.I like pitchability. But when your location is off or one pitch can't be located then he will get lit up. Aces and #2's have to put up solid numbers in half a dozen games or more where they don't have their best stuff.

If his mechanics change to get the velocity he has in his arm then all bets are off.

Mechanics video (Courtesy of Baseball Intellect)

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/college-draft-brian-matusz/

I've read an awful lot about him before this year and especially this year. A lot of the hype has been justified and some not.

Fastball - some starts it sat around 90-91 and peaked at 93. He didn't do so well then. But many of his starts he was around 94-96 consistently. When he was throwing 95 he also threw a 2 seamer I believe. That or a type of cutter. His location was fairly good but the usual young players lack of command (mistakes in the zone, etc.).

Slider - This was the pitch many raved about. Even guys using pitch f/x saying it was the best slider in baseball. I guess they need to turn a tv on and watch Zack. Or just turn a tv on and watch Brett try and locate his for a strike. It's an excellent out pitch and he does locate it once in a while. But it's definitely not a plus plus pitch. To me it's borderline plus. Borderline because when a hitter swings they won't be hitting it, but it can't be located well enough.

Change - This is the pitch I love. Nice tight late break. Very repeatable. Good location in and out of the zone. Nice arm action. I've seen a 2-0 count followed by 3 changes for a strikeout. Sweet. Needs to use it a lot more against lefties, especially on days where he doesn't have his best fastball.

I have a little concern for the large velocity spike. For some reason guys with a big jump tend to get injured the next year. I'm a little less concerned after hearing about the workout regimen contributing. And I hope that his velocity is more consistent throughout the season.

But even without the velocity I think he could be a good pitcher. He would just have to use the change in more 0-0 counts and mix his pitches better. That and locate his slider better in the zone. Because when he is throwing 90-91 even with movement it seems quite hittable, maybe it's just very visible from the hitters eyes (not hidden at all).

With his velocity though he could be an ace this year. Maybe not a Greinke/Felix/Halladay type yet. I expect he will have a few days where it will come apart. Having that focus all year and limiting damage is a big progression. But I think he has the stuff to become a true ace. Sooner rather than later. Be excited.

I'm more of an AL person so I haven't seen him as much. Just now watching some 2009 tape of him, both good games against good hitting and bad games against bad hitting. In the next day or two will probably have a better feel for him.

My first reaction?

Fastball:

93-94 four seamer with good command. I don't care at all about control, command is what it's about.

88-91 two seamer thrown across his body with nice tailing action. I don't like the cross-body action but more about that later.

85-89 cutter/slider. He throws a hybrid cutter slider mix. This is an excellent pitch to LH hitters.

Curve:

78-81 curve, sometimes a hard curve at 85. I like the late spin on this pitch. It's not a hammer curve like Buch but it's much easier to locate. Right now Bills has some problems with locating it but I think this is mostly just being a young pitcher. I really think this will be his bread and butter. Hopefully he watches Verlander - how he will throw it on 0-0 counts when hitters pick a gameplan of sitting fastball. Unless you are a dominant pitcher teams don't try these approaches. I think Bills can be this guy though.

Change:

Don't really see much of this pitch. Maybe it's the starts I watched? Can anyone mention a start where he featured it so I can watch? It's always been in his scouting report but I'm not seeing it.

Slider:

See fastball / cutter

Health, etc.:

Chad has huge legs that he uses a lot. Last year he had a broken leg/ankle that affected him offseason. And this caused the groin injury in spring training. And in April/May I could see him being tentative in his landing. This is integral to his success.

He also throws across his body. No biggie for now but this wears on the shoulder. Without a solid change if he loses a few mph on the fastball it would really hurt him. IMO I would figure the next 4 years could be gold but after that is risky.

Prognosis:

I think this year will be a big one for him. Don't underestimate the benefit of being able to workout in the offseason. Injuries in the offseason are so much worse than what is written. Yeah, they are ready for spring. But they didn't do long toss or running or any other critical exercises over the winter. IMO anyone hurt over the offseason is a DND (do not draft).

When I first started to get really interested in his scouting reports it was something like:

Fastball plus pitch, sits 95

Curveball plus pitch, hammer curve

Changeup plus plus

It was the change that had me thinking he could really special. Now let's fast-forward to end of last season. Here is what I saw from him.

Fastball 4 seam 94 to 95, good location

Fastball 2 seam 89 to 92, nice movement but not typically thrown for strikes

Curveball hammer curve 12 to 6 with excellent break. Not very often for strikes though.

Changeup 78 or 79mph. Huge separation between that and his 4 seam. This is like when Johan Santana had a 14mph separation and was at his most dominant IMO. The break on his change is a little disappointing though. But since the arm action is good and the velocity difference is huge then it's still a plus pitch.

I liked his 4 seam fastball. The location was usually good but he grooved more than I would like. But he did get away with it because of the velocity. Many times he painted corners. But even in games he had his better location he grooved at least a couple. I didn't like his 2 seam as much. It seemed quite useful when it was in a pitchers count but otherwise there were a lot of balls from this pitch. When Varitek was catching he seemed to call more of the 2 seam but Martinez called more 4 seam (from the games I watched). I preferred Martinez approach.

His curve varied a lot. He showed a hammer curve that wasn't hittable. This appeared most games but wasn't often thrown for strikes. One game it was more slurvy. Too many times he seemed to have problems with his grip. Whether it was bouncing the pitch, almost hitting someone, or wild pitches. I also saw this grip problem when he wanted to throw a 2 seam and give extra movement or on his slider. I've seen a few curves where it was much less movement and earlier break. More hittable but I liked this pitch. Hopefully he will use it more. It can be thrown for strikes easier and give him another option for getting a first pitch strike.

He also throws a few sliders. One game I didn't see any. But when he throws he will get one or two plus sliders in the game. I saw a lot that hitters didn't even offer at on a 1-2 count. Currently it's too inconsistent. Once in a while it gets the swing and miss, more often it's just a ball. At least he misses with it outside the zone.

I hear a lot about his makeup and his lack of pitchability and that under pressure he either collapses or doesn't have a game plan. I'm not sure I buy into that. I did see him try to add spin and thus lose control under pressure. But I think it's more a matter of him not having the best feel for pitches. And his landing looks stiff to my eye.

I don't want to sound too negative. He has an excellent fastball when he uses more 4 seamers and mixes in the occasional 2 seamer. His changeup is a definite strikeout weapon. Why doesn't he use it more against lefties? And his curve shows promise.

IMO if he can go to a standard curve and simplify his approach he could be a number 2 pitcher very soon. Then over time try and make the hammer curve and slider bigger parts of his arsenal. Right now he's trying to do too much.

Watching him pitch I just don't see how he would be a dominant starter. Unless of course there is some major progression in his secondary pitches.

Just to recap:

Fastball: While he can reach 97-99 he typically pitches around 95. Nice tailing action with some downward motion. That is when he throws free and easy. But when he bumps it up you can see the extra torque and you can also see a loss of control. No biggie. But this is while relieving. When he starts either he will tire in the fifth doing this or more likely have to either A) throw less velocity or B) throw more pitches with higher stress and lower accuracy

Changeup: Sorry KLaw and others. I just don't see a change-up. Yeah, he calls it that. But it's a split finger grip and it's a split finger velocity, and split finger tumbling action. It can be devastating. The problem with the pitch is two-fold. If you've seen a lot of Contreras you would know. One is that the pitch doesn't hump and tends to drop early. Once he's been scouted it's excellent on two strikes but not very good before then, just too easy to detect unless the hitter is forced to defend the zone. The second is it's a pitch that is inconsistent on when it breaks. You will see a lot in the dirt. Oh, should have mentioned a third. Not so good on the body.

Curve: Didn't like it, seemed more of a show me pitch. Ok show me pitch. But the only guys that I saw fooled were because they were expecting or cheating on gas and got burned.

Health: He had problems with his shoulder I believe in the minors. And he is a high pitch count guy. With a 3/4 arm slot which really doesn't bode well for improving his off-speed. He isn't the biggest pitcher. And he is much more of a max effort guy than people give credit for. Yeah, when he is in the bullpen he can throw 95 easy. But he can't throw 98 easy in the pen. And he definitely can't throw 95 late into a game easy as a starter.

I really so no reason to move him to starter. It's just not true that "it can't hurt to try him as a starter". With his body type he might only have 3 or 4 dominant reliever seasons. Do you want to waste that with mediocre at best starter numbers? I know I don't.

NY trades:
Joba
Hughes
Tabata
Cano
Kennedy

Boston:
Ellsbury
Buchholz
Lester
Masterson
Lowrie

Minnesota:
Santana

St. Louis:
Eckstein (knows how to win)

NY is able to shift Jeter to SS and Eckstein can move to SS improving D and offense. Santana is the obvious best player in the deal so Boston and NY agree to alternate starts where he pitches for one team and then the other. When facing each other he will start for the home team but can come on in relief for the visiting team.

btw: the best feature of this trade is all boston and ny rookies are gone and we don't have to listen to all these hughes vs. chicken salad sandwhich offers.

This comes up in conversation quite often. And many times it's used improperly. I'll try to shed some light.

The original article comes to a conclusion that the "injury nexus" is a real event. The one possible reason was felt that the ligaments, tendons, joints, etc. have not fully formed. And the actual date of the injury nexus was believed to be before age 23.

While this article principally talks about age they do talk about maturity - in that each person's body will mature at different ages. The age they quote is by no means intended to be exact.

The study shows the worst point in time for pitchers is age 21 and at, or around, age 23 is the best point. But since the study is only on MLB players then for a 21 year old to qualify he would have needed a successful MLB season at age 20. Quite a rare feat. And easily understandable while we wouldn't see age 20 on the chart. There would not be enough 19 year olds to make it valid statistically.

What was not really discussed in the original article was other causes for the damage. In particular the ascending innings pitched and higher pitch counts. Pitchers that are either allowed to accumulate much higher innings pitched from one year to the next (ie 115IP to 190IP) or simply the players that just can't handle the longer season and are affected by injury.

Since the article BP has talked more about these phenomena and they have also moved from a specific nexus (if they even perceived it that way) to something more generic. They discuss the age as a factor, the physical maturity, and the levels of innings pitched the pitcher has weathered.

Is a 27 year old pitcher that has always had low innings (ie late start to baseball) and not exposed to MLB past his injury nexus?

IMO he is not. While he is past the physical maturity issue he still has not taken the beating that a significantly larger workload will put on him. And he has not proven in successive seasons that this hasn't affected him. I'm not dismissing the physical maturity issue. I just believe it is only one of many factors.

I would really like to see some studies that look at minor leaguers based on the same rules as the original study. And I would also love to see some studies based on IP progression.

btw: I hope I'm not giving the impression that BP's work is flawed or that I know much more about it than they do.

Links:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1658

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6720

Too much negativity here. Here is some fun videos to watch.

Please put other links of specific videos that you watched and liked.

Travel Sick - Lima,Peru  - Get Mugged
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnfefAN6C30&NR=1

Travel Sick - Papua New Guinea  - Bats
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEJllhTzde4&feature=related

Travel Sick - Czech Republic  - Frisbee with wild beast
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cf-ZKv4XeCw&feature=related

Ali-G - Sexuality
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vEx2RwJHLA&feature=related

Ali G - Beckham and Posh
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P842Tmi6lrc&feature=related