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peterzm

  • joined Mar 28, 2010
  • last login May 30, 2014
  • posts 23
  • comments 124
User Blog
FanPost
19

A Four-way Platoon

Over at Drunk Jays Fans a reader named Scott commented on an article pertaining to AA's comments on the battle for left field by suggesting the following: (h...

AL Contenders - the Fangraphs comp: Part 1

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The Southpaw compares position players projected wars from Fan Graphs among expected contenders, including LAA, Toronto, Detroit, Boston, Tampa, New York, and Texas. Totals for the batters: BRS - 35.6 (39% Pedroia and Ellsbury) NYY - 32.4 TR - 31.4 TBR - 27.7 TBJ - 27.3 LAA - 25.5 DT - 23 She suggests that Fangraphs maybe conservative about the Jays projecting only 1 WAR from lf, projecting Lawrie at 5 WAR (I'd be happy with that), Bautista at 6.5 WAR (worth 8.3 last year), Lind at 1.3 WAR (worth 3.7 in the year we keep wanting back), and Johnson (2.5 WAR - I would take this as well). "I think the Jays have more potential to move up than down - Snider, Lawrie, Lind and maybe Johnson have upward potential - even Bautista might not regress as much as they think. I think this total could break 30. On the other hand, the Red Sox are over-rated by these projections IMO. Ellsbury has had one year at the elite level, Pedroia isn't regressed as much as seems logical, Youk is more likely to go down than up, Crawford has the injury issue, and the SS and RF situation could get ugly. The Rays and Yanks seem less volatile, though I can see TB picking up another WAR or two from Jennings. In my opinion, all four teams (and Texas) fall within a range of 29-33 WAR. the Angels are running behind but they will do much better on the SP and make up ground."

AL East matchup: Toronto versus boston

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The Southpaw does a position by position analysis on how we measure up against the Bosox

Shiny Shiny Crystal Ball

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The Southpaws take on the Jays chances. She seems to substantiate some realistic optimism for the Jays chances in 2012.

FanPost
42

"Tis the Season for believing"

The headline is a rip-off of DJF post called 'tis the season for believing in comeback's' where mentions Farrel's excitement over how McGowan has looked so far. McGowan is one piece of a lot of...

FanPost
2

The Jays and Relievers

Until this off-season most Jays fans had assumed that AA propensity to pick up free agent relievers (or trade in the case of Frank Francisco) had mostly to do with the possibility that they could...

FanPost
12

Snider and Power Pitchers Updated

Just Updating the numbers on Snider against power pitchers. The problem isn't going away. Against Power pitchers (Avg/OBP/Slg/OPS) .077 .172 .115 .288 Against AVG Power/Finesse .159 ....

Hindsight 20/20 for Farrell after 'pen miscues (Can Someone Teach Farrell Something About Sample Sizes)

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"Blue Jays manager John Farrell admitted on Wednesday afternoon that he likely made a mistake in the way he handled his bullpen during Toronto's series opener against the Orioles on Tuesday...Farrell brought left-hander Marc Rzepczynski in to pitch the top of the eighth inning with the right-handed Vladimir Guerrero and switch-hitting Matt Wieters due up... The decision was made because Guerrero was 1-for-7 against Rzepczynski in his career, while Wieters was 0-for-3. The move didn't pay off, as Guerrero earned a five-pitch walk and Wieters followed with a two-run homer...I'll be quite frank with you and admit I weighed more of the history than the current trend that a pitcher is in,' Farrell said. 'Even more specific to that, it was the second hitter of the inning that swayed my decision.' "What Rzep and Casey [Janssen] specifically had done against Wieters was pretty much the swing vote, and in retrospect it was a poor decision." Rzepczynski started off the season as one of the league's most reliable setup men, but he's struggled in the month of June. He has allowed four runs and six walks in just 4 2/3 innings. Farrell often talks about his tendency to rely on past performance statistics when making decisions with the bullpen. He said approximately 10 at-bats translates into a suitable sample size, but how a pitcher is throwing should also factor into any potential move. 'There is definitely a balance,' Farrell said. 'If the appearances are lengthy enough where you have a more concrete feel on what the past history against one another has been, that will have a bearing. But that's part of the feel of using your gut or using the current trend or performance of a pitcher has been, versus what they have done over the history of time.' An article that mentions ten AB's as a significant sample size, and where a decision was made by Guerrero's 1 for 7 and Weiters 0 for 3 lifetime stats against Rzep is a bit scary to me. It would have made much more sense to delve into both hitters carreer splits and the way the pitcher is currently pitching. Vlad has carreer OPSed 60 points higher against lefties (over 2000 ABs against lefties) while Weiters has OPSed 60 points lower against lefties over 300+ bats against lefties. Between them it's pretty much a wash if your only going to bring in one pitcher to pitch to them both, Vlad being better against lefties, and Weiters not as good. Rzep's struggles of late should have also played into the decision. However, it's a bit dissapointing to see incredibly small sample sizes being described as deciding factors on day to day decisions regarding the pen.

An Open Letter to John Farrell: Splits and Sample Sizes

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"Octavio Dotel against lefties? Noooo!!!!!! Moving Travis Snider to second against AJ Burnett because of success over seven plate appearances??? Nooooo!!!!! Having runners-- like Corey Patterson last night, or John McDonald at Fenway on Saturday-- try to steal bases down multiple runs in late innings? Nooooooo!!!!! This should be basic stuff, John. Any idiot with a computer-- me, for example-- can see that Dotel has sucked ... against left-handers the last two years, or that in the AL last year, of the 16,039 plate appearances with a runner on first and less than two outs, only 1804 resulted in double plays, for a rate of one every 8.9 plate appearances-- hardly a reason to literally run scared of one." Andrew Stoeten http://www.drunkjaysfans.com/2011/04/open-letter-to-john-farrell.html I know it's also a pretty small sample size to judge John Farrell on, but bad decisions are bad decisions regardless of how often it's happening. To take a twenty percent chance of getting caught stealing to avoid a 10% chance of hitting into a double play is not a good decision when your behind by a couple of runs. Its also possible that these are just players who have the green light, and it wasn't the managers call and it won't happen in the long run. Nor is it a good decision to let Dotel face a significant portion of lefties, but he has had 13 plate appearances against lefties who are OPSing 1.250 against him versus just 10 against righties who are OPSing .400 against him. Given that last year righties OPSed .576 versus lefties who OPSed .993 and in 2009 righties OPSed .653 versus lefties who OPSed 1.000 he should almost never see a lefthanded hitter.

The Offense, the Bench and the no Walk Club

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Great Breakdown of the offense so far. http://bluejaysanalysis.com/

FanPost
12

Farrell's offence a few day's in...

It's probably way to early to make strong conclusions about the Blue Jays offence. The early indicator that I like the most is that the Jays seem to be walking a lot more. 16 walks/15 in 99 ABs as...

FanPost
9

Travis Snider and power pitchers

A comment by a fan in another post led me to do a little bit more research on Travis and power pitchers that I though interesting enough to share elsewhere. An article by Matthais Koster looked at...

The Case for Scrabble: Disappointing Developments With Marc Rzepczynski

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http://bluejaysanalysis.com/2011/03/21/disappointing-developments-with-marc-rzepczynski/ I've been pretty impressed with Rzep potential as a starter over the years and am dissapointed that the Jays would after a couple of spring training starts offer him the option of converting to the pen. Blue Jays analysis makes a strong case for keeping Rzep a starter.

FanPost
2

Why Travis Snider should stay in left field?

Typically teams seem to put their better weakest outfielder in Left field. I would argue however generally that a relatively faster outfielder should be in left field, and in my impression it is a...

10 Reasons to Call Up Lawrie NOW?

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1. Triple A is Bunk 2. 3rd Base is easy 3. The Jays are in contention 4. You can tell everything about a players readiness from 25 spring at bats 5. Scouts are stupid 6. Kids need to be taken down a notch 7. Get the clock running 8. The Jays don't need contractual control anyway 9. He's done with the minors 10. Zero downside I personally think Lawrie held up well in double A but showed that he could still use some seasoning. I'd like to see more patience. Though I'd like to see some numbers on how quickly moving a person through the system affects a persons major league production and a persons ability to stick in the majors (a lot of prospects fail and I think we exagerate the ones that are rushed that end up failing) I think there's a difference between Travis Snider who shows that he has absolutely nothing left to learn at Triple A, and Brett Lawrie who hasn't been to Triple A.

FanPost
7

Reconsidering Juan Rivera

Juan Rivera comes from one of the most pitcher friendly parks in Baseball, and has consistently hit substantially better on the road. On average the Angels and there opponents only score 86.4% of...

FanPost
26

Locking up Bautista?

The Blue are in the process of heading into arbitration with Bautista. In the words of Michael Vlessides a consultant to major league teams on arbitration cases "Arbitration... is an Ugly Process"...

FanPost
20

Contending without selling the future...

I think the Jays should try going for it without morgaging the future. Given the relative rebuilding in Tampa, and the age and quiet offseason in New York, the Jays have a legitimate chance at the...

FanPost
12

How about Hoffman?

The 5th starter suggests that the Jays should go after Hoffman despite his awful 2010 (ERA of .589) particularly because he could be a mentor to a young...

FanPost
21

Nick Johnson in Toronto?

Although I also am open to the idea of Manny Ramirez coming to Toronto, and would prefer that option provided he can be signed for around 8 million, another option at Dh or even first base is Nick...

FanPost
21

Mastrionni (and Emaus)

How about Mastrionni in centre-field? He hit .301 last year in New Hampshire, with a .390 obp and 46 steals. So far in the winter leagues he has hit a modest .581(18-31), with a .639 Obp.  You have...

Zach Stewart in the pen next year?

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"Jays tell RHP Zach Stewart, one of top arms in system along with Henderson Alvarez: 'Be prepared to start or pitch in relief next spring.'" I'm pretty excited about Zach Stewart in the pen next year.

FanPost
36

Aaron Hill's Extension

As Drew explains at Ghostrunner on first "Hills contract calls for $4 mil this year and $5 mil next. The next three years are club options; three of which can be activated at the end of this...

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