As I'm sure you all know, on July 1st, the NBA officially went into lockout for the first time since 1998.  Everybody seems to agree that this is going to be a long, ugly process that could possibly even wipe out the entire 2011-12 NBA season.  Tom Penn, a former NBA front office official was quoted on PTI earlier this month saying that he believes there is a 75% chance that there is no season next year.  This means that for the next year, there is probably going to be a very small amount of actual basketball news, very little for us to talk about, and misery for basketball fans everywhere.  The little amount of information coming from the NFL is excruciating, and the NBA is supposed to be much worse.  I'd really hate to see this site turn into "we sould get cris paul and josh smith because theyr realy good and we could use someor good playerzz!!!" so we need some real discussion. 

            One thing that I heard floating around after Miami lost to Dallas in the Finals was that Miami should trade LeBron James for Dwight Howard.  Even though this is extremely unlikely, it is still something that intrigued me, and I wanted to go into more depth with it.  And with that...

Preface:

Let me first say that I think there is almost no chance that this happens.  I don't think Miami will want to break up the Superfriends just one year after forming.  This is mostly just to inspire discussion among fans, and, well, it's fun to hypothesize.  There's not much statistical analysis in this post, its mostly speculation.  Also, for this post, I have gotten my Cap info from Larry Coon's NBA Salary Cap FAQ and specific salary numbers from Sham Sports.  Stats are from Basketball-reference.com.  If I say something that is incorrect, please point it out so I can fix it and make appropriate changes.

Also, I want to say that re-signing Dwight would be my first choice for this team.  Dwight is my favorite player in the game, and, given my age, also my favorite player of all time.  I would hate to see him leave.  But worse than seeing him be traded would be watching him leave for nothing next summer.

The Trade:

ORL Receives F LeBron James (2011-12 Salary:  $16,022,500, signed through 2015-16 season at $95,337,500)

MIA Receives C Dwight Howard (2011-12 Salary:  $18,091,770, early termination clause after '11-12 season)

Why it works for Orlando:

            Orlando is in trouble.  Their window is obviously closing, and their star player is a year away from free agency.  They are in real danger of becoming a lottery team with no potential young stars and aging, below-average vets that keep the team at or above the salary cap (it's too hard to really speculate about this due to the uncertainty of the new CBA).  They need to either find a way to get Dwight to re-sign, or find a way to get the very most that they can for him in a trade.  If possible, that would be LeBron James.

LeBron James is the best player in the game, plain and simple.  No matter how much you may dislike him, it is hard to argue that there is anyone better at the game of basketball then LeBron.  He led the league in PER last year with a 27.3.  The year before he had a 31.1, and in '08-09, he had an astonishing 31.7.  Last season he was second in Points per game with 26.7, and pulled in 7.5 rebounds a game.  He's also one of the best passers in the game, with 7 assists a game last year.  That puts him in the top 12 league wide.  He is also regarded as one of the best, if not the best, wing defenders in the game, is amazingly athletic, has a good track record of staying healthy, and is the most exciting player in the game.  He can take over almost any game, whenever he wants, seemingly with ease.  He took a Cleveland team to the finals almost entirely by himself, and made a finals appearance last year as well.  The guy is absolutely incredible.

            But this (hypothetical) trade is about more than just how good the players are.  LeBron is signed to a contract for the next five years, taking him through the 2015-16 season.  Everyone here knows that Dwight Howard is going to be a free agent after next season, and no one knows if he will resign with Orlando or not.  Obviously, the best-case scenario would be for Dwight to re-sign, but there's no way to know if that's going to happen, and the Magic need to protect themselves from the worst-case scenario, him leaving and Orlando getting nothing.  If there is any way to get a legitimate superstar for five years in return for Dwight Howard, it would definitely be the best return Orlando could get.

Why it works for Miami:

(Again, I'm not sure if Miami would agree to this trade.  I doubt Miami would want to break up the team that had the best plus/minus in the league last year and made it to the finals the first year they were together.  Also, it's hard to believe that they would want to get rid of the player that I described in the last section.  But it's really not that farfetched that they would make this trade, for these reasons.)

After their improbable free-agent spending spree last summer, the Heat were expected to run through the league with relative ease, at least according to many of the "experts" (heh) at ESPN, and other news outlets across the country.  The Heat themselves also believed that the super team they created was infallible, saying things like "it's gonna be easy," and of course LeBron's little counting excercise where he said they would win eight titles in Miami.  They had astronaumical expectations, and are sure to be a little bit shocked that they didn't win the title last season.  They might feel like LeBron and Wade are too similar, and both need the ball to much for perfect synergy among the team, and they might feel like they need to do something to their team to get a title to South Beach.

            The only other player on the planet in the same league as LeBron James is Dwight Howard.  They are a clear 1-2 in the league, and it is highly debatable which player is better.  I don't have to tell you much about Howard, but he's by far the best defensive player in the game, his offensive game is evolving into one of the most efficient and just-plain-best in the league, he's young, healthy, and just keeps getting better.

            By subtracting LeBron and adding Dwight, the Heat would make their already-league-best-defense even better.  This may sound strange, but they would also have more "evenly-spaced superstars."  In other words, they would have a stud wing player, a 4 with good range, and a center that can anchor both sides of the floor.  I think that part of Miami's problem was that none of their three superstars was a point or a center.  They would have one obvious player to handle the ball down the stretch, and wouldn't have all the controversy over who was going to get the last shot.  They may also feel that they just need to shake up the roster and try something new.

            Also, while I obviously have no first hand knowledge, I would find it hard to believe that Dwight wouldn't resign with Miami next summer.  He would stay close to his home in Florida, and be on a contender for the next half-decade.

Why it works for LeBron:

            It really seems like LeBron could use some new scenery.  After the ‘Decision' debacle last summer, most fans around the league turned on LeBron, and he became the most hated player in the league.  After his subpar showing in last year's finals, it seems like a lot of Heat fans began to question LeBron, and started to feel like a lot of other fans did.

            In Orlando, LeBron would have a team to himself again, like he did back in Cleveland.  He took the Cavs to the finals, and the Magic arguably now have a better supporting cast then the Cavs did then.  I think LeBron restricted himself by surrounding himself with two other stars that use the ball as much as he does, and this would be a way to get him back to being the guy in charge.

Why it works for Dwight:

            Mainly, he would instantly be on a long-term contender, and would only be a couple of hours away from his current home in Orlando.  He could sign his contract there, contend for titles, and live in Florida.  It appears to be a pretty perfect situation.

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