Ok, so when some people can't sleep, they count sheep.  Me, I get up, go to my laptop and start trying to figure out what it's going to take for the Tigers to win this division.  This morning I've been looking at strength of schedule remaining. 

The Tigers have 39 games left, the ChiSox 38. 

The Tigers have 18 games left against teams with a winning record, the ChiSox 24. 

The Tigers have 21 home games left, the ChiSox 15.

 

But that's not enough for me.  I created a weighted average of opponents' record.  What I did was just put in the opponents' record once for each game that they will play against that team the rest of the way, so LAA is in three times for the Tigers, for example.  They I averaged that out.  Based on this,

The Tigers opponents' weighted average winning percentage is .485, the ChiSox .520.

 

Still not content, I did the same thing for the Tigers/ChiSox home/road winning percentages and found

The Tigers home/road weighted percentage remaining is .542, the ChiSox .497.

 

Now I know that this is all based purely on what has happened year-to-date, and as such, doesn't carry that much weight - the games still have to be played.  But based purely on remaining strength of schedule, I sure like the Tigers' chances more so than the White Sox!

The more I think about this, the more I think he should start the season with the big league club. 

 

Why?

 

Well, for one, let's say he's only worth 150 total innings this season.  If he starts at Toledo and pitches 50 fantastic innings, then when they get ready to call him up, he's only got 100 innings left. 

 

Second - There's really nothing to lose (except maybe Willis and Robertson) by having him start with the Tigers.  If he can't handle the pressure, go ahead and send him down.

 

Third - Take advantage of off days.  Use the five man rotation, but when there's a day off, let Porcello have a breather.  That way you don't burn him out too soon.

 

Fourth - Use a spot starter if he needs a break.  Bring in one of the long relievers once a month and let him throw a few innings.

 

I guess my point here is that I feel that people have been looking at this as an all or nothing idea.  And from that angle, it can be a difficult decison.  But when I look at this way, it's really an easy one.  Bring him up, give him a shot, and if he can't do it, then he'll be a bit more seasoned when he comes back up next time.

 

 

So I was worried when Robertson didn't pitch well.  I was only slightly concerned when Porcello didn't pitch well.  I wasn't that worried when Bonderman skipped his start for a simluated game instead. 

 

But, I began to get seriously worried when Willis fell apart.  I started to wonder who would fill that fifth starter role.  And now that I hear that Bondo is skipping his simulated game, I'm very concerned that our boys have only three starters, and honestly, I still need those three to prove something to me before I can start to feel good about them.

 

*sigh*  I have such a love/hate relationship with the Tigers.

 

I'm starting to plan for next year.  Sure, I know that a lot of people won't accept the fact this season is over, and that's fine.  I'm not interested in arguing about how the Tigers could theoretically win all the rest of the games this year and finish 40 games over .500.  Instead, I'm starting to plan for next year.

I've got a couple of somewhat intruiging ideas kicking around in  my head.  First, what do you think about Carlos Guillen as a DH?  He's got a decent bat, and he just doesn't have the mobility to play third.  Not only that, but there are two places where the Tigers seem to have depth in the minors - third and OF.  So now that we've removed Inge from the 3B equation, how about letting someone like Mike Hessman bring his 32 HR up from Toledo and play?  You don't want Guillen at DH?  Ok, hold that thought.

The other place the Tigers have a lot of depth is in the outfield.  I think we all know that.  I'd be shocked, nay devastated, if Curtis or Magglio didn't stay as a starter.  But look who that leaves - Joyce, Thames, Rayburn, Cleven, and yes, I'll say it - Clete.  So I'd say at least one of those guys won't be around come Spring.  Package up one or more outfielder and remember Guillen?  If you don't want him as your DH, this is where he goes.  He's done on the left side of the infield, in my opinion. 

Speaking of the left side of the infield, this is where I'd be thinking trade if it were up to me.  The Tigers have no solution at shortstop.  Renteria isn't it, and there is no one in the minors who looks to be ready for 2009.  So an outfielder (or two), Sheff (if anyone wants him) Guillen (if necessary) and Edgar (if they haven't already refused to re-sign him) are all available as part of the deal to get a SS with some range and hopefully a decent OBP.

Pitching is the fascinating area right now. 

Starters

Rogers - How is he going to feel at the end of the season?  Does he really want to come back for another year?  Even at his age, a crafty southpaw can provide some leadership for a rotation that's still pretty young.

Galarraga - He's earned it.  No argument there.

Bonderman - Who knows.  If he's healthy and can get through the first inning, he could be solid.  But then again, he hasn't lived up to potential for a long time.

Robertson - That great game he just pitched should increase his trade value.  Lump him in somewhere in that shortstop trade.

Miner - My jury is still out on him.  Spring is a long way away, let's see how he does between now and then.

Willis - Great outing last time, 7 1/3 with 2 walks.  Apparently he CAN find the plate after all.  I gotta put him in the group with Bonderman and Miner, could go either way.

Verlander - I have little doubt that he'll be back in the rotation next year.  He needs some time to clear his head and rest his arm.

Relief

Straight up - anyone who thinks he or she has figured out what the Tigers relief corps is going to look like next year is smoking some pretty good stuff.  The list of potential relievers is ridiculous, really.  But I doubt TJ will be back.  Same goes for the F&F boys, Fossum and Farnsworth.  Zoom and Cap'n Crookedhat are both enigmas.  They could come back and mow batters down, or they could just as easily turn into Grilli.  Seay, Dolsi, Rapada, Lopez, who knows? 

Coaching

I'm starting to come around to the side of those who don't much care for Chuck Hernandez, and here's why: 

Tim Byrdak was released in Spring Training after not being able to get anyone out.  He's pitching for Houston now and doing fine, thank you very much.

Jason Grilli seems to be pitching much better in Colorado

Dontrelle Willis is even coming around in Lakeland.

So is it just that these guys all needed a change of scenery?  Or is it that Chuck couldn't get them to perform?

Leyland won't be fired.  He's critical to the team's sucess next year.  Now, he COULD decide that this year sucked enough that he doesn't want to do it again, but I think management will want him back. 

 

So that's what I've got.  A busy off-season, perhaps.  I really don't expect to see any MAJOR changes to the pitching staff until Spring, when we see how many Dr. Jeckyls or Mr. Hydes show up.  Sure, they could add someone like Freddy Garcia, and why not?  Better to begin the Spring with too many starters and see who's not going to cut it than have to bring up one of your relievers and throw him into a starting role.  Otherwise -

 

My kingdom for a shortstop.

So here we are at the mid-point of the season, one game over .500, 41-40.  Not only that, but they've won 17 of their last 21!  Very impressive.  I'm not going to lie to you, I have been watching, waiting, and hoping to get back up to .500 this year.  It's pretty much been what we've been hoping for since about oh, I don't know, mid-April?  And here we are.

Sure, it's a tremendous accomplishment for the way this team started.  But let's not buy our World Series tickets just yet.  First let's take a closer look at that winning streak.  2 of those wins were against Cleveland (currently playing at a .451 pace.)  3 from the Dodgers (.469) 2 from SF (.439) 2 from San Diego (.386) and 3 from the Rockies (.390)

Granted, they did manage to wrest 2 out of 3 from the Cardinals (.566) and a sweep of the Pale Hose (.568) but Chicago really wasn't playing well during that stretch.

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It seems as if everyone is talking about the Tigers' starting pitching.  Everyone, of course, except those who are actually paying attention.  There is so much talk of how high the starters' ERA is.  But those of us who actually watch the games know differently.

 

In the KC series, out of three games, the Tigers gave us quality starts.  The only one who failed in that endeavor was the Gambler, and he had blown his chance by the second inning.  But in the first game of that series, the much maligned Nate Robertson gave up only 2 runs in 7 innings.  In the second game, Verlander gave a solid performance, yielding 2 in 6 innings.  Skipping over Rogers, and heading to Arizona, we see that Bonderman gave up only one run in 6 innings (yes, I know, he was charged with 2 more in the 7th while he was in the dugout, but technically, that's still a QS!)  Last night Galarraga gave up two runs on only one hit through 6 innings (and those came in while he was out of the game!)

 

I've already written about how much better the bullpen has been recently (if you leave off Jonesy) and it's apparent that the starting pitching has come around.  So what's left as the cause for the abysmal record?  It's pretty obvious to die-hard fans.  It's the hitting.

 

Yes, the Tigers that we expected to see score 1000 runs are 25th overall in BA with RISP, 27th in OPS with RISP, and 28th in SLG with RISP.  Believe it or not, they are 9th in OBP overall.  So as much as we all want to call for Chuck Hernandez' head, it's not about the at-bats.  They are actually hitting fairly well (HERESY!) 

 

The problem with this time this year is this - they can't handle pressure.  Look back at the bullpen again.  When someone comes in with the lead and the bases empty, things MOSTLY turn out ok (again, Jonesy excepted).  When a reliever comes in with 2 men on, everything goes to hell.  With no one on base, Matt Joyce's OPS goes from .991 to 1.488.  With the bases empty, the Tigers' OPS is .728.  With RISP and 2 out, it drops to .657.

 

This is why the team had the players only meeting last week and why they came out of that meeting relaxed and happy instead of looking mean and glum.  They all know that once they can just ignore the pressure and play good baseball, things will come around.

 

Too bad they will come around much too late.

Lately, I've found myself wondering. When the payroll skyrocketed, I was mostly pretty happy. We'd been waiting for the Tigers to cut loose with some cash since, well, since Juan Gone thankfully turned it down. But as the season approached and I looked at where the Tigers were in spending, I began to feel some pangs of regret. People were lumping our boys in with my two most dreaded teams, the Yanquis and the Red Sawx. Still, I was glad to have the players that we acquired, and it put it all behind me. Then there's the whole Brandon Inge thing. When did the Tigers players start thinking that they were bigger than the team? That settled down quite a bit, but now Sheff is running off at the mouth about what's best for Sheff. Guillen (shockingly) is starting to talk about what he wants. It's become much more about what the players seem to want, and I think it's starting to show in the way that they work (or don't work) together. The final straw to me is the series of recent actions by ownership/management. The Tigers I knew left Mike Maroth out there long enough to lose 21 games. The Tigers of 2008 are a "must win" team. If they go a few days without kicking someone's ass, then the fans and the media call for someone's head. I can handle being a fan of a losing team. Heck, I've been a Tigers fan since the mid-sixties, I'm used to be a fan of a losing team. But I can't handle being a fan of the Yankees. I can't handle being a fan of a team that has no patience and no chemistry. So please Jimmy, Donny, Mikey. Let's relax and remember that this is a game, and these are the Tigers. Maybe taking the pressure off will actually help.

This Winter, everyone jumped on the Tigers bandwagon.  Then when Zumaya was determined to be out, Rodney was injured, Cruceta was lost in legal limbo, the sound of people jumping OFF the bandwagon was deafening.  Everyone was glad to say that the boys would score a thousand runs, but the big gaping hole in the Tigers this year is the bullpen.

Um, excuse me?

Since the April shellacking against Cleveland (13 games) the bullpen has put in 41 innings, given up 24 hits, 5 runs (all earned) 16 BB and 20K.  Now I’m not a rocket scientist, but by my math that’s an ERA of 1.09 and a WHIP of 1.07.

Now, to further my amusement, I looked at what Todd “Rollercoaster” Jones has been doing during that same period:

5IP 3H 2R 2ER 3BB 1K for an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.20

Taking that out of the bullpen stats, you can see that WITHOUT Jonesy, the numbers are:

36IP 21H 3R 3R 13BB 19K for an ERA of 0.75 and a WHIP of 0.94.

Sure, I’d like to see less walks, but when your middle relievers and setup guys have an ERA of 0.75, you are gonna win some games.

The bullpen has gone from being the key weakness of the team this year into a something rock solid.

Ok, now I better get back to work.