SB Nation User Blog: pfuhrmeister

Great run, but...

pfuhrmeister — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 20:16:07 -0000

So here we are at the mid-point of the season, one game over .500, 41-40. Not only that, but they've won 17 of their last 21! Very impressive. I'm not going to lie to you, I have been watching, waiting, and hoping to get back up to .500 this year. It's pretty much been what we've been hoping for since about oh, I don't know, mid-April? And here we are.

Sure, it's a tremendous accomplishment for the way this team started. But let's not buy our World Series tickets just yet. First let's take a closer look at that winning streak. 2 of those wins were against Cleveland (currently playing at a .451 pace.) 3 from the Dodgers (.469) 2 from SF (.439) 2 from San Diego (.386) and 3 from the Rockies (.390)

Granted, they did manage to wrest 2 out of 3 from the Cardinals (.566) and a sweep of the Pale Hose (.568) but Chicago really wasn't playing well during that stretch.

Still, 41-40 *IS* a game over .500, and good enough for third place in the Central right now, and we are all thinking that the Tigers are going to the post-season. Time for a good stiff shot of realism. Here are the last five years Central Division and Wildcard winners win totals:

Div WC

2007 96 94

2006 96 95

2005 99 95

2004 92 98

2003 90 95

So to make the playoffs out of this division is going to require AT LEAST 90 wins. And that's clinging to some pretty slim odds. Here's how many games some relevant teams are on pace to win in 2008:

White Sox 91

Twins 88

Rays 97

BoSox 95

Yanquis 86

Angels 96

So again, it's going to take at least 90 and a lot of praying. What would it take for the Tigers to win 90? They'd only have to go 49-32 the rest of the way, playing .605 ball. Here's some more pipe dream numbers for you:

To win PCT

91 .617

92 .630

93 .642

94 .654

95 .667

96 .679

97 .691

98 .704

99 .716

In case you still don't see that as long odds, go look how many games the Tigers have against Minnesota in the next two weeks. Seven. Sure, they could sweep those two series, plus take out Cleveland and Seattle. But it's not likely. And I have to ask myself if the rookie pitchers are going to look this good all season. Or if the injuries to Mags and Brendan are going to let some of the recent gains fade quickly into memory.

It's been a great run, and this may not be the peak for the boys this year. But I think it's time that we ask ourselves "Can we be satisfied finishing third in the Central this year?" Because that's what this year's Tigers' destiny appears to be.

Now go out there and prove me wrong, Jim.

Under Pressure

pfuhrmeister — Sun, 18 May 2008 13:14:12 -0000

It seems as if everyone is talking about the Tigers' starting pitching. Everyone, of course, except those who are actually paying attention. There is so much talk of how high the starters' ERA is. But those of us who actually watch the games know differently.

In the KC series, out of three games, the Tigers gave us quality starts. The only one who failed in that endeavor was the Gambler, and he had blown his chance by the second inning. But in the first game of that series, the much maligned Nate Robertson gave up only 2 runs in 7 innings. In the second game, Verlander gave a solid performance, yielding 2 in 6 innings. Skipping over Rogers, and heading to Arizona, we see that Bonderman gave up only one run in 6 innings (yes, I know, he was charged with 2 more in the 7th while he was in the dugout, but technically, that's still a QS!) Last night Galarraga gave up two runs on only one hit through 6 innings (and those came in while he was out of the game!)

I've already written about how much better the bullpen has been recently (if you leave off Jonesy) and it's apparent that the starting pitching has come around. So what's left as the cause for the abysmal record? It's pretty obvious to die-hard fans. It's the hitting.

Yes, the Tigers that we expected to see score 1000 runs are 25th overall in BA with RISP, 27th in OPS with RISP, and 28th in SLG with RISP. Believe it or not, they are 9th in OBP overall. So as much as we all want to call for Chuck Hernandez' head, it's not about the at-bats. They are actually hitting fairly well (HERESY!)

The problem with this time this year is this - they can't handle pressure. Look back at the bullpen again. When someone comes in with the lead and the bases empty, things MOSTLY turn out ok (again, Jonesy excepted). When a reliever comes in with 2 men on, everything goes to hell. With no one on base, Matt Joyce's OPS goes from .991 to 1.488. With the bases empty, the Tigers' OPS is .728. With RISP and 2 out, it drops to .657.

This is why the team had the players only meeting last week and why they came out of that meeting relaxed and happy instead of looking mean and glum. They all know that once they can just ignore the pressure and play good baseball, things will come around.

Too bad they will come around much too late.

When did we become the Yankees?

pfuhrmeister — Tue, 06 May 2008 19:54:53 -0000

Lately, I've found myself wondering. When the payroll skyrocketed, I was mostly pretty happy. We'd been waiting for the Tigers to cut loose with some cash since, well, since Juan Gone thankfully turned it down. But as the season approached and I looked at where the Tigers were in spending, I began to feel some pangs of regret. People were lumping our boys in with my two most dreaded teams, the Yanquis and the Red Sawx. Still, I was glad to have the players that we acquired, and it put it all behind me. Then there's the whole Brandon Inge thing. When did the Tigers players start thinking that they were bigger than the team? That settled down quite a bit, but now Sheff is running off at the mouth about what's best for Sheff. Guillen (shockingly) is starting to talk about what he wants. It's become much more about what the players seem to want, and I think it's starting to show in the way that they work (or don't work) together. The final straw to me is the series of recent actions by ownership/management. The Tigers I knew left Mike Maroth out there long enough to lose 21 games. The Tigers of 2008 are a "must win" team. If they go a few days without kicking someone's ass, then the fans and the media call for someone's head. I can handle being a fan of a losing team. Heck, I've been a Tigers fan since the mid-sixties, I'm used to be a fan of a losing team. But I can't handle being a fan of the Yankees. I can't handle being a fan of a team that has no patience and no chemistry. So please Jimmy, Donny, Mikey. Let's relax and remember that this is a game, and these are the Tigers. Maybe taking the pressure off will actually help.

Can I get some relief?

pfuhrmeister — Fri, 02 May 2008 16:24:44 -0000

This Winter, everyone jumped on the Tigers bandwagon. Then when Zumaya was determined to be out, Rodney was injured, Cruceta was lost in legal limbo, the sound of people jumping OFF the bandwagon was deafening. Everyone was glad to say that the boys would score a thousand runs, but the big gaping hole in the Tigers this year is the bullpen.

Um, excuse me?

Since the April shellacking against Cleveland (13 games) the bullpen has put in 41 innings, given up 24 hits, 5 runs (all earned) 16 BB and 20K. Now I’m not a rocket scientist, but by my math that’s an ERA of 1.09 and a WHIP of 1.07.

Now, to further my amusement, I looked at what Todd “Rollercoaster” Jones has been doing during that same period:

5IP 3H 2R 2ER 3BB 1K for an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.20

Taking that out of the bullpen stats, you can see that WITHOUT Jonesy, the numbers are:

36IP 21H 3R 3R 13BB 19K for an ERA of 0.75 and a WHIP of 0.94.

Sure, I’d like to see less walks, but when your middle relievers and setup guys have an ERA of 0.75, you are gonna win some games.

The bullpen has gone from being the key weakness of the team this year into a something rock solid.

Ok, now I better get back to work.