This is a follow-up to my post of a few days ago: http://www.thegoodphight.com/2010/9/17/1694057/best-pitcher-right-now. I had to do a new FanPost instead of adding a comment to the previous one because the comment engine doesn't appear to allow for tabular formatting (if anyone knows a way to do this, please let me know).

Anyway, what I have devised is a weighted average of a pitcher's starts wherein the most recent are weighted much more heavily than the earliest. This gives a kind of pitcher power ranking by showing how a pitcher is doing right now, rather than just his averages for the season.

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Elsewhere today I asserted that Cole Hamels had been the best pitcher in the majors since the All-Star Break. I had no particular numbers to back this up, as BB-Ref doesn't have "split" leaderboards, so I thought about how to go about figuring it out. Then I wondered whether there was a way to estimate how good a pitcher is right at this moment. Season-long stats don't tell you this; they average out slumps, effects of nagging injuries, mastering new pitches, etc.

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Just so everyone understands, I'm making two few assumptions here. Feel free to quibble with these, but they're not really the point...

• The Phillies will trade for Roy Halladay
• Michael Taylor will NOT be involved in the Roy Halladay trade (the Jays have an OF logjam)
• Dominic Brown WILL be in the trade for Halladay

The Phillies have an OF logjam of their own, with Ibanez, Victorino and Werth all being excellent contributors at their respective positions this season.

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The ads for Nationals games on MASN all over this blog are rather badly misdirected. That is all.

 

La la la I need more works la la la doo dee doo dee stupid SBNation rules blah blah blah my cat's breath smells like cat food wee wah woo I can't think of any more crap to write dobedobedo I need 15 more words goddamn it only 10 to go so close I can almost taste it

I know MattS has touched on this point before, but here's a pretty in-depth analysis of where various sluggers have sent their home runs.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/04/alltime_home_ru.php

Howard has the third highest career percentage of his homers going to the opposite field, behind, of all people, Roberto Clemente and Julio Franco. It should be noted that neither hit as many home runs in their entire careers as Howard has already, and he's obviously far from done.

Also, Howard has the two highest (technically the highest and also tied for second) season totals of opposite field shots ('06 & '08).

Basically, I guess what this means is that he has disgusting raw power, and the only thing that prevents his flyballs from going out is if he doesn't get enough loft on them (especially to CF and RF). Not exactly earth-shattering to folks who watch him every day, but interesting nonetheless.

...and to all Phillies Phans who could not witness this in the first life -- this is for you. It is for all of us.

 

You are with us in this moment, and you will be with us as the Phillies fulfill their destiny. Your families are as jubilant as you are yourselves -- they know what this means to you and at this moment they celebrate with you as well.

 

May whatever deity you believe in continue to be with you.

Phillies prospect Michael Taylor is making SAL pitching look silly, to the tune of .363/.438/.571/1.009 with 10 homers in 60 games at age 22. Oh, and he's 9 for 11 in steals. OK, so he's a little old for the league, but I present for comparison the following line:

.280/.367/.469/.836 with 19 homers over 135 games. This was Ryan Howard's line, also in Lakewood, also at age 22. He turned out OK.

Anyone care to speculate about why Taylor's not in Clearwater yet? Lakewood is one of the few teams in the Phillies system that doesn't blow, and perhaps the Phillies want him to get a taste of winning. So, do they promote him after the ASB? This article seems to suggest he's going nowhere in the immediate future, but there's nothing concrete indicating why. Other than that, I've got nothing. Would there be any good reason to keep him down in Low-A for a whole season and then double-jump him to Reading next year, rather than promote him to Clearwater mid-season and then let him tackle Double-A with some high-A experience?

Talk to me about this guy. I know he's 6'6", 250 lbs, and presently plays left field. Does he have a future in the OF? The steals indicate he has some speed, but him size suggests he won't keep it forever. The only other obvious place for him to play would be first base... could he supplant Howard there in a couple of years, assuming Howard prices himself out of town or falls apart or something?

Speaking of the Howard comparison, as Ryan is showing some signs that he may not be able to regain his MVP form, would it perhaps behoove the Phils to try to fasttrack Taylor so that he's not hitting MLB just as he reaches his prime?  

He's making the SAL pitching look silly, to the tune of .363/.438/.571/1.009 with 10 homers in 60 games at age 22. Oh, and he's 9 for 11 in steals.

OK, so he's a little old for the league, so I present for comparison the following line:

.280/.367/.469/.836 with 19 homers over 135 games. This was Ryan Howard's line, also in Lakewood, also at age 22. He turned out OK.

Anyone care to speculate about why Taylor's not in Clearwater yet? Lakewood is one of the few teams in the Phillies system that doesn't blow, and perhaps the Phillies want him to get a taste of winning. So, do they promote him after the ASB? This article seems to suggest he's going nowhere, but there's nothing indicating why. Other than that, I've got nothing. Would there be any good reason to keep him down in Low-A for a whole season and then double-jump him to Reading next year, rather than promote him to Clearwater mid-season and then let him tackle Double-A with some high-A experience?

Talk to me about this guy. I know he's 6'6", 250 lbs, and presently plays left field. Does he have a future in the OF? The steals indicate he has some speed, but him size suggests he won't keep it forever. The only other obvious place for him to play would be first base... could he supplant Howard there in a couple of years?

No, I don't want to physically injure the NL MVP frontrunner. Let's take a closer look at what he's doing this season.

Utley is currently sporting a ridiculous 1.227 OPS, by far the best of his career (he hit .976 last year) The home runs are the most obvious improvement: he's already hit more than half as many as he did in the five months he played last season. He's on pace to hit 68 for the year, which would be 3rd best of all time.

Not only is he hitting more home runs, he's hitting more extra-base hits overall. It's not just doubles turning into homers. He's on pace for 52 doubles, which is behind the crazy pace he hit them at last year, but still would have been enough to lead the league.

But what's behind the power surge? His other stats don't look exceptional. His batting average is significantly up, but it has steadily improved every season. His strikeut rate is slightly down and walk rate is a bit up (the latter largely owing to being IBBed a few times due to Howard's struggles), but both are also in line with career trends.

What is unexpected is that his groundball rate is sharply down while his line drive and flyball rates are both up:

via www.fangraphs.com

Also, per the Hardball Times, his HR/FB rate is by far the best of his career, at 23.4% (vs. a career rate of ~13%). This isn't an unusual HR/FB rate compared to other sluggers, however -- Barry Bonds bettered Chase's ratio in 3 of his last 4 seasons, and Ryan Howard has hit more home runs per fly ball in every year but this one.

What isn't off the charts, surprisingly enough, is Chase's average on balls in play. It's at .348, which is well above average, but not remarkable nor unsustainable. It's actually down from last season, when his BABIP was .362.

What does all this mean? I don't know, except that it seems extremely unlikely that he'll be able to keep up this pace. Utley doesn't have the physique usually associated with this kind of slugging, although the fact that his HR/FB rate isn't extraordinary is a good sign. The single biggest key to his success thus far would seem to be his GB/FB/LD rates. If he can keep smashing liners and flies all year even if some of his other numbers regress, he may well cruise to the MVP award.

[editor's note, by dajafi] Promoted from the diaries, because when beat writers get it right, it's impossible to give them too much credit.

We've been talking about this over on backshegoes.com, but I might as well post it here too.

Once again, Todd Zolecki shows his saber-stripes: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20080306_Phillies_show_striking_out_not_all_that_bad.html.

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Joe Table is back, baby!

Over the last week (not including tonight), he has allowed a 1.117 OPS, for an ERA of 7.71 over four appearances. Tonight, in 1/3 inning, he allowed five runs (two scored while he was in the game; he left with the bases loaded, and Clay Condrey allowed all the baserunners to score).

Carlos Carrasco for Mark Teahen?

There's an interesting discussion of this very question here, and I thought I'd take the pulse of the TGP readers.

Poll

Well? Wouldja?

21%

Yes -- but no more

5 votes

39%

Lesser prospect, maybe, but not Carrasco

9 votes

4%

Teahan is teh suxx0rz!

1 votes

34%

Yes, and I'd throw in another prospect if necessary

8 votes

23 votes | Poll has closed

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Much ado has been made of the notion that Jamie Moyer's acquisition was good for Cole Hamels' development. Comcast's John Marzano has discussed it on Post Game Live, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick wrote a column about it (although I can't read it because it's an "Insider" piece), and it's been mentioned by Ken Mandel of Phillies.com, including a quote from Hamels himself:

The intangibles Gillick spoke of referred to the veteran leadership that Moyer provided on the four days between starts. He was often seen huddled with Randy Wolf or Cole Hamels with a baseball in his hand, and they typically weren't discussing the weather.

"He showed me that you don't have to throw 95 miles an hour to get somebody out," Hamels said in September. "He's told me a lot of things. It's amazing that he's still doing what he's doing."

That's all well and good, but The Good Phight is about, among other things, not taking things for granted. So let's look closer.

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Chris Coste is currently sporting a .968 OPS (and rising as I write) in 75 AB. And that's after posting a .708 in 24 AB in June.

While I don't see him being able to keep this pace up if he becomes a full-time player, I'm starting to think he really could be a serious asset to the Phils down the stretch and next year.

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I have considerable doubts as to the ultimate efficacy of such a gesture, but there's a really well-done online petition imploring the Phillies owners to sell, both for their own financial good and for the sake of the fans.

If so inclined, sign it here. You'll need a valid email address (I suggest a free hotmail account if you don't want to use a "real" address).

Coming into this year, there were three pitching prospects generally considered the best in baseball: Francisco Liriano, Anthony Reyes and Justin Verlander. With his exceptional performance this season after missing a lot of time the last two years, Cole Hamels has reinserted himself into this discussion.

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http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/58FE1DED71C4610A8625713900170CFD ?OpenDocument

Quote attributed to Rollins:

"I had my best two seasons the last two years. They talk about I'm not on base enough. Well, I'm still in the top three in runs scored, you know what I mean?

"Looking at the important categories, looking at the numbers that really count, I'm doing my job as a leadoff hitter. You can get on base, but does it help your team win? But if you don't score runs, if your score doesn't move, your record probably doesn't get better."

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I don't trust Gavin Floyd. I don't trust his stuff, with the loss of velocity on his fastball over the course of last year. I don't trust his control. I don't trust that he can miss bats.

Here's the thing: I didn't trust him before 2005. There's nothing in his minor-league record that suggests to me Floyd's going to be an especially good major leaguer. He's never posted an impressive strikeout rate, he's never shown particularly good control (based on walk rate), and he's been pretty inconsistent in hit rate and home run rate.

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I thought it would be fun to keep track of how the Phillies' players who are in the WBC are doing.

Hitters (Name Country AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS):
Bobby Abreu VEN .214/.389/.214/.603 in 14 AB
Tomas Perez VEN ---- (has not batted -- sensible)
Carlos Ruiz PAN .000.333/.000/.333 in 6 AB (eliminated)
Chase Utley USA .333/.333/.333/.667 in 9 AB

Pitchers (Name Country ERA/WHIP Innings):
Eude Brito DR 0.00/1.00 in 1 inning
Rheal Cormier CAN 0.00/1.80 in 1 2/3 innings (eliminated)
Scott Mathieson CAN 0.00/1.00 in 1 inning (eliminated)
Aaron Myette CAN 13.50/1.50 in 2/3 inning (eliminated)
Robinson Tejeda DR

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I'm haven't been much of a fan of Marcus Hayes in the past, but watching him absolutely destroy John Marzano on Daily News Live last night was one of the funniest and most refreshing media moments in this town in recent memory.

Marzano interrupted Barkann to interject this little pearl of wisdom, into which he'd apparently put some thought: Abreu frequently stops at second base on possible triples, because he's trying to pad his doubles. Hayes responded, incredulously, "Pad his doubles?"

Johnny Marz went on to spout the typical lines about Abreu, saying he doesn't play all out (particularly in the field), comparing him to Pat Burrell. Hayes correctly pointed out that Burrell doesn't crash into walls either, and has had maybe two diving catches all season.

Hayes coup de grace was when he said to Marzano, "why don't you do what Bowa did, call Eskin and say 'Abreu's a dog, get him off my team for me.'"

Also, he went on to use stats to blow up the "Abreu was ruined by the Home Run Derby" myth.

Good stuff all around. Let's hope for more of the new Marcus Hayes.

Blogger "Shore" at thegoodphight posted the notion that Ryan Howard might be a left-handed Cecil Fielder. I took a look at their minor-league numbers:

Minor league numbers (from thebaseballcube):
Fielder: 624 G, 2301 AB, 138 HR, 289 BB, 525 K, .296/.378/.541/.919
Howard: 444 G, 1637 AB, 94 HR, 206 BB, 517 K, .290/.373/.528/.901

Howard's strikeout rate is a bit higher, but otherwise their numbers are virtually identical (except for the number of games).

Apparently, Baseball Prospectus' comparables list for Howard doesn't include Fielder, but I'm not a subscriber.

What does everyone think?

Somebody had to start this diary, might as well be me.

Captain Awesome hit a record 24 home runs in the first round, breaking Miguel Tejada's single-round record of 15 set last year.

The record for total homers in the derby is 27, by (I believe) Juan Gonzalez. Abreu should easily break that even if he doesn't win.