SB Nation User Blog: phatj

Michael Taylor

phatj — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 04:05:23 -0000

Phillies prospect Michael Taylor is making SAL pitching look silly, to the tune of .363/.438/.571/1.009 with 10 homers in 60 games at age 22. Oh, and he's 9 for 11 in steals. OK, so he's a little old for the league, but I present for comparison the following line:

.280/.367/.469/.836 with 19 homers over 135 games. This was Ryan Howard's line, also in Lakewood, also at age 22. He turned out OK.

Anyone care to speculate about why Taylor's not in Clearwater yet? Lakewood is one of the few teams in the Phillies system that doesn't blow, and perhaps the Phillies want him to get a taste of winning. So, do they promote him after the ASB? This article seems to suggest he's going nowhere in the immediate future, but there's nothing concrete indicating why. Other than that, I've got nothing. Would there be any good reason to keep him down in Low-A for a whole season and then double-jump him to Reading next year, rather than promote him to Clearwater mid-season and then let him tackle Double-A with some high-A experience?

Talk to me about this guy. I know he's 6'6", 250 lbs, and presently plays left field. Does he have a future in the OF? The steals indicate he has some speed, but him size suggests he won't keep it forever. The only other obvious place for him to play would be first base... could he supplant Howard there in a couple of years, assuming Howard prices himself out of town or falls apart or something?

Speaking of the Howard comparison, as Ryan is showing some signs that he may not be able to regain his MVP form, would it perhaps behoove the Phils to try to fasttrack Taylor so that he's not hitting MLB just as he reaches his prime?

Michael Taylor

phatj — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 03:41:31 -0000

He's making the SAL pitching look silly, to the tune of .363/.438/.571/1.009 with 10 homers in 60 games at age 22. Oh, and he's 9 for 11 in steals.

OK, so he's a little old for the league, so I present for comparison the following line:

.280/.367/.469/.836 with 19 homers over 135 games. This was Ryan Howard's line, also in Lakewood, also at age 22. He turned out OK.

Anyone care to speculate about why Taylor's not in Clearwater yet? Lakewood is one of the few teams in the Phillies system that doesn't blow, and perhaps the Phillies want him to get a taste of winning. So, do they promote him after the ASB? This article seems to suggest he's going nowhere, but there's nothing indicating why. Other than that, I've got nothing. Would there be any good reason to keep him down in Low-A for a whole season and then double-jump him to Reading next year, rather than promote him to Clearwater mid-season and then let him tackle Double-A with some high-A experience?

Breaking Down Chase Utley

phatj — Sun, 04 May 2008 19:01:35 -0000

No, I don't want to physically injure the NL MVP frontrunner. Let's take a closer look at what he's doing this season.

Utley is currently sporting a ridiculous 1.227 OPS, by far the best of his career (he hit .976 last year) The home runs are the most obvious improvement: he's already hit more than half as many as he did in the five months he played last season. He's on pace to hit 68 for the year, which would be 3rd best of all time.

Not only is he hitting more home runs, he's hitting more extra-base hits overall. It's not just doubles turning into homers. He's on pace for 52 doubles, which is behind the crazy pace he hit them at last year, but still would have been enough to lead the league.

But what's behind the power surge? His other stats don't look exceptional. His batting average is significantly up, but it has steadily improved every season. His strikeut rate is slightly down and walk rate is a bit up (the latter largely owing to being IBBed a few times due to Howard's struggles), but both are also in line with career trends.

What is unexpected is that his groundball rate is sharply down while his line drive and flyball rates are both up:

via www.fangraphs.com

Also, per the Hardball Times, his HR/FB rate is by far the best of his career, at 23.4% (vs. a career rate of ~13%). This isn't an unusual HR/FB rate compared to other sluggers, however -- Barry Bonds bettered Chase's ratio in 3 of his last 4 seasons, and Ryan Howard has hit more home runs per fly ball in every year but this one.

What isn't off the charts, surprisingly enough, is Chase's average on balls in play. It's at .348, which is well above average, but not remarkable nor unsustainable. It's actually down from last season, when his BABIP was .362.

What does all this mean? I don't know, except that it seems extremely unlikely that he'll be able to keep up this pace. Utley doesn't have the physique usually associated with this kind of slugging, although the fact that his HR/FB rate isn't extraordinary is a good sign. The single biggest key to his success thus far would seem to be his GB/FB/LD rates. If he can keep smashing liners and flies all year even if some of his other numbers regress, he may well cruise to the MVP award.

Todd Zolecki is great

phatj — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 19:58:50 -0000

[editor's note, by dajafi] Promoted from the diaries, because when beat writers get it right, it's impossible to give them too much credit.

We've been talking about this over on backshegoes.com, but I might as well post it here too.

Once again, Todd Zolecki shows his saber-stripes: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20080306_Phillies_show_striking_out_not_all_that_bad.html.

He makes the obvious points: Phillies have led or been near the league lead in both strikeouts and runs scored for each of the last several years, double plays are one obvious downside of putting the ball in play vs. striking out, etc.

On BSG we've nit-picked about this: "Howard is a career .291 hitter. He has struck out 493 times in 1,461 career at-bats, which means he hits .439 when he puts the ball in play. If he could have cut his strikeouts from 199 to 175 last season, his average would have jumped from .268 to .289. He might have hit 50 homers instead of 47." It (possibly fallaciously) suggests that Howard can cut down strikeouts without affecting other aspects of his game.

All in all though, it's a nice piece, one that strikes a nice balance that shouldn't alienate old school readers but keeps us geeks happy too. Not to mention he's not a verbose old crank with a perverse love affair with strained metaphors.

The smoke is clearing, the mirrors are broken

phatj — Thu, 23 Aug 2007 01:06:05 -0000

Joe Table is back, baby!

Over the last week (not including tonight), he has allowed a 1.117 OPS, for an ERA of 7.71 over four appearances. Tonight, in 1/3 inning, he allowed five runs (two scored while he was in the game; he left with the bases loaded, and Clay Condrey allowed all the baserunners to score).

Would you trade...

phatj — Thu, 12 Apr 2007 19:09:05 -0000

Carlos Carrasco for Mark Teahen?

There's an interesting discussion of this very question here, and I thought I'd take the pulse of the TGP readers.

My personal feeling is that if Teahen's shoulder is 100% healthy (he had off-season surgery on his labrum, I believe -- a particularly worrisome bit of anatomy), I'd do this in a NY minute and I'd sweeten the deal if needed.

Teahen is an above-average 3B, both offensively and according to scouts and stats, defensively as well, right now. He's an inexpressibly vast upgrade over Nunez, and a big step up over Helms as well. And he's young so he's likely to get better, and four years from free agency.

What do the rest of you think?

Poll

Well? Wouldja?

Jamie Moyer -- Mentor?

phatj — Mon, 06 Nov 2006 04:22:03 -0000

Much ado has been made of the notion that Jamie Moyer's acquisition was good for Cole Hamels' development. Comcast's John Marzano has discussed it on Post Game Live, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick wrote a column about it (although I can't read it because it's an "Insider" piece), and it's been mentioned by Ken Mandel of Phillies.com, including a quote from Hamels himself:

The intangibles Gillick spoke of referred to the veteran leadership that Moyer provided on the four days between starts. He was often seen huddled with Randy Wolf or Cole Hamels with a baseball in his hand, and they typically weren't discussing the weather.
"He showed me that you don't have to throw 95 miles an hour to get somebody out," Hamels said in September. "He's told me a lot of things. It's amazing that he's still doing what he's doing."

That's all well and good, but The Good Phight is about, among other things, not taking things for granted. So let's look closer.

Proponents of this theory will point to Hamels' stats before and after the August 19 trade for Moyer (all numbers courtesy of Dave Pinto's fantastic Day-by-Day Database): 4.50 ERA, 1.26 WHIP before, 3.35 ERA, 1.22 WHIP after. But wait a minute: the trade wasn't announced until after the completion of Hamels' start on that date, in which he went 6 innings, giving up 2 ER, 5 H and 1 BB. So the correct pre- and post-Moyer numbers are actually as follows:

Before Moyer (5/12 - 8/19): 4.40 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
After Moyer (8/24 - 9/27): 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

So now the difference is smaller, but still significant, at least in terms of ERA: Hamels' allowed one full earned run per nine innings fewer under Jamie's tutelage than he did before.

But maybe Hamels was actually improving before Moyer arrived. If so, this might be missed in the above comparison.

It turns out that Hamels' 2006 ERA hit its high point after his July 24th start, in which he was lit up for 7 ER in 5 1/3 innings. In his next five starts prior to Moyer's arrival (including the 8/19 start), King Cole went off: 1.83 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over 34 1/3 innings. So, perhaps the more meaningful comparison would be between these numbers and his post-Moyer performance. It turns out that Hamels was on a big-time hot streak leading up to Moyer joining the team, and his subsequent numbers were actually worse.

At any rate, it appears, talking heads' comments and Hamels' own lip service to the contrary, that Moyer didn't help Hamels at all.

Chris Coste -- for real?

phatj — Fri, 04 Aug 2006 01:20:51 -0000

Chris Coste is currently sporting a .968 OPS (and rising as I write) in 75 AB. And that's after posting a .708 in 24 AB in June.

While I don't see him being able to keep this pace up if he becomes a full-time player, I'm starting to think he really could be a serious asset to the Phils down the stretch and next year.

I really want to know what was wrong with him when he slumped so badly in AAA after not making the big-league roster. Was he just down in the dumps, was there some glitch in his swing, or something else? Just bad luck?

This is a guy that a system like PECOTA probably would choke on. How do you project a 33-year-old rookie?

Give me your best guesses as to his final 2006 line, and his 2007 line (assuming you think he'll make the team).

My guesses (and these are truly wild-ass guesses):

.305/.355/.490 in 200 AB
.270/.345/.450 in 325 AB

I'll take that from a catcher any day.

Sell the team

phatj — Thu, 03 Aug 2006 03:27:46 -0000

I have considerable doubts as to the ultimate efficacy of such a gesture, but there's a really well-done online petition imploring the Phillies owners to sell, both for their own financial good and for the sake of the fans.

If so inclined, sign it here. You'll need a valid email address (I suggest a free hotmail account if you don't want to use a "real" address).

Cole Hamels - The Best of the Best (Pitching Prospects)

phatj — Tue, 23 May 2006 14:59:04 -0000

Coming into this year, there were three pitching prospects generally considered the best in baseball: Francisco Liriano, Anthony Reyes and Justin Verlander. With his exceptional performance this season after missing a lot of time the last two years, Cole Hamels has reinserted himself into this discussion.

First, some background and scouting on the four of them. Hamels, a 6'4", 180 lb lefty, was drafted in the first round out of high school in 2002, but didn't pitch as a pro until the following year (in A ball). His repertoire includes a fastball that tops out at about 94 MPH, a changeup that has been described as the best in the minor leagues, and a good curveball. Liriano, who's 6'2" and 200 lb and also throws left-handed, was signed as an undrafted free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2000, and started his pro career the next year in rookie ball. He throws a fastball at up to 98 MPH and a hard slider at 91. Reyes, a 6'2" 215 lb righty, was drafted in the 15th round after four years at USC in 2003, and started in high A the same year. Reyes throws a mid-90s fastball, as well as a slider and changeup. Verlander, a 6'5", 200 lb right-hander, was a first-round draftee out of Old Dominion in 2004, and started pro ball in high A the next year. He's best known for a fastball that can reach triple digits, but also throws an above-average curve and decent changeup.

Here are some career minor league numbers for the four of them:
Pitcher IP ERA H/9 HR/9 W/9 K/9
Hamels 195.33 1.43 5.25 0.09 3.32 12.59
Liriano 422.33 3.39 7.82 0.62 3.20 10.31
Reyes 284.00 3.58 7.95 0.86 1.87 10.01
Verlander 118.67 1.29 6.14 0.30 1.97 10.31

Hamels and Verlander appear at first glance to be the class of this group, with the best ERAs by far, with Verlander edging out Hamels by 0.14.

Hamels has an astonishingly low home run rate, leading the field by 0.21 HR/9. I don't know enough about the minor league parks to know if this might be park influenced, but the difference is far too great, I think, to attribute solely to park factors. Verlander is well behind Hamels in this category, but well ahead of the other two.

Hamels' also has the best hit rate of the four, besting Verlander by almost a full hit per game, and 2.5+ fewer than Liriano or Reyes.

Hamels has by far the best strikeout rate of the group, by more than 2 per 9 innings.

Walk rate is Hamels' only weakness among this competition, and it is in this category where Verlander and Reyes particularly shine. As a result of the high walk rate, Hamels' K/BB ratio is the second worst, although still a very good 3.79. Reyes and Verlander are outstanding, at 5.35 and 5.23 respectively.

The first glance, however, doesn't tell the whole story, particularly with respect to Hamels. His numbers are influenced by the fact that he has pitched a great deal at Clearwater, where, because of his health issues, he has started each of the last three seasons after demonstrating mastery of that level in his first pro season. So, let's see if we can break down the numbers and attempt to compare the pitchers level by level, and disregard Hamels' high-A performance after 2003.

Pitcher Age Level IP ERA H/9 HR/9 W/9 K/9
Hamels 19 A+ 26.33 2.73 9.91 0.00 4.78 10.94
Liriano 20 A+ 117.0 4.00 9.08 0.46 3.31 9.62
Reyes 22 A+ 36.67 4.66 10.06 1.23 1.72 9.33
Verlander 22 A+ 86.00 1.67 7.33 0.31 1.99 10.88

In high-A ball, Verlander clearly had the best all-around numbers. However, he did it as a 22-year-old after three years of college, whereas Hamels was just 19 and in his first year out of high school. Hamels' hit rate and walk rate were rather high (and both were considerably higher than what he posted at Lakewood prior to his promotion), but not enough to hold him back.

Pitcher Age Level IP ERA H/9 HR/9 W/9 K/9
Hamels 21 AA 19.00 2.37 4.74 0.95 5.68 9.00
Liriano 20 AA 39.67 3.18 10.21 0.91 3.86 11.12
Reyes 22 AA 74.33 2.91 7.51 0.36 1.57 12.35
Verlander 22 AA 32.67 0.28 3.03 0.28 1.93 8.82

In AA, Hamels' improved his ERA over what he posted two years earlier in high-A, despite allowing the first two homers of his career, and despite a big jump in walk rate. He did this largely on the strength of a huge drop in hit rate. Again, Verlander has the best numbers at this level.

Pitcher Age Level IP ERA H/9 HR/9 W/9 K/9
Hamels 22 AAA 23.00 0.39 3.91 0.00 0.39 14.09
Liriano 21 AAA 91.00 1.78 5.54 0.40 2.37 11.08
Reyes 23 AAA 128.7 3.64 7.34 0.91 2.38 9.51
Verlander skipped AAA.

Hamels, as we all remember well, was utterly dominant in AAA, allowing just one earned run and one walk versus 36 strikeouts in his 23 innings before getting the call-up. It should be noted, however, that the teams he faced in his three AAA starts were all relatively weak offensively. Liriano and Reyes both acquitted themselves well in AAA, posting very good numbers across the board, and Verlander skipped AAA and was called up directly to the majors late last year after owning AA hitters.

Finally, let's take a look at their numbers in the majors thus far (through Sun. 5/21).

Pitcher Age Year IP ERA H/9 HR/9 W/9 K/9
Hamels 22 2006 11.33 3.18 4.77 0.79 7.15 9.53
Liriano 21 2005 23.67 5.70 7.23 1.52 2.66 12.55
Liriano 22 2006 27.33 2.96 9.55 0.33 2.31 12.18
Reyes 23 2005 13.33 2.70 4.05 1.35 2.70 8.10
Reyes 24 2006 11.33 3.18 4.77 0.79 7.15 9.53
Verlander 23 2005 13.33 7.15 11.91 0.79 3.97 5.56
Verlander 24 2006 51.00 3.18 8.12 1.06 2.47 4.76

All except Verlander have posted numbers in the majors that are predictable based on minor league performance. Verlander was hit pretty hard in his few innings last year, but has done much better so far this year, albeit with mediocre strikeout and walk rates. Hamels has done well so far, but really needs to cut down on the walks.

Setting health issues aside for the moment, based on these numbers in total, Hamels may not be the best prospect of this bunch, but he's damn close. The only thing that will hold him back is walk rate, although his AAA performance might be indicative of some improvement in that regard. Interestingly, aside from AAA, Hamels' walk rate has jumped with each promotion, from 3.01 (A-) to 4.78 (A+) to 5.68 (AA) to 7.15 (MLB).

One thing that I wonder about regarding Hamels' strikeouts and walks is whether his phenomenal strikeout rates and somewhat high walk rates have been achieved by nibbling around the corners and frequently missing, but getting weak minor-league hitters to chase anyway. His early MLB performance seems to support this theory. If so, this might portend trouble for him in the majors unless he can improve his control.

Taking health into account, this is a tougher race to call. Hamels probably drops a slot or two, although Reyes has also had injury problems and Verlander has been cited for mechanical issues which might cause him trouble down the line. Liriano seems to have been uniformly healthy, but he's also the second-youngest (two months older than Hamels) and has pitched the most professional innings of the group.

Regardless of how you rank them, I can't see how Hamels, assuming good health, could project as less than a top ace. Not that he'll be one this year (or ever, if he can't stay healthy), but his numbers veritably scream "ACE," especially if he improves his control, as one would expect a young pitcher to do.