SBNation.com User Blog: polodude017

Scott Pioli: Genius or Fraud (2010 Draft)

polodude017 — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 01:01:19 -0000

I started this series the other night by looking at Scott Pioli's 2009 draft, his first after being hired as General Manager of the Kansas City Chiefs. I'll continue today with the 2010 draft. Enjoy and please continue with the comments, they make for very interesting conversation.

Remember, don't overreact to the grades, pay more attention to the commentary. I'm not only interested in how the pick turned out long-term, but the logic behind the pick when it was made. I think by looking at both of these factors, we can get a good idea of how well Pioli has drafted while in Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs 2010 Draft

Round 1, Pick 5 - Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

2010 Analysis: This was exactly the pick I was looking for. Berry did a great job in college of creating turnovers, was very underrated in run support and basically had no holes in his game. He was big, but not so big that you worried about him covering ground in the pass game. The rare safety who looked like he could be excellent in both the run and pass games. I thought the Ed Reed comparisons were a little ambitious, but I did think multiple Pro-Bowls was well within reach. He also filled a huge need at the back end of the Chiefs defense (remember Mike Brown?). Scouts and the talking heads seemed to agree with my assessment as the Chiefs scored high grades on this pick.

The here and now: I'm sure a lot of people came away a little disappointed after Berry's rookie year, expecting an instant star. However, I usually temper my expectations for rookies, expecting that they will improve steadily throughout their first year. Berry struggled at times that season, getting caught biting hard in the passing game and giving up some huge plays. This seemed to improve as the season went on though. He was, however, an absolute stud in the run game, coming into our TV screens as a red blur and routinely making plays behind the line of scrimmage. Obviously, like many, I expected he would take another healthy step forward in his second season. Of course we all know what happened. Berry has struggled returning from injury this season, routinely getting caught out of position in the passing game and lacking the big plays he made with some regularity during his rookie season.

Grade: A-. I absolutely loved the pick at the time it was made. I wouldn't have done anything differently. Berry's rookie year, while it had it's rocky points, was enough to make me think that he would eventually reach his potential as a perennial Pro-Bowler and one of the better safeties in the league. Of course the injury appears to have derailed that path (at least for now). I have trouble penalizing Pioli or the front office for such an injury and I'm still hopeful that Berry will regain his form of yesteryear. I docked this pick slightly because of the relative value of the safety position (I'm a stickler, I know) and the fact that, right now at least, Berry isn't living up to the hype.

Round 2, Pick 4 - Dexter McCluster, RB/WR, Mississippi

2010 Analysis: Oye! I remember exactly where I was when this pick was made (stopping at the hotel bar at a healthcare IT conference in Dallas, TX). I was livid. There are two major reasons that this pick made no sense to me. 1) The Chiefs had holes all over their starting units on both sides of the ball. There were tons of players on the board that they could have selected that would have helped to plug one of those holes (my personal favorites were Sergio Kindle, Rob Gronkowski and Terrance Cody). Instead, they chose a guy who would NEVER be a starter. I don't care if you're putting McCluster at WR or RB, he's not starting in the NFL. 2) He was extremely poor value at this point in the draft. Like many of you have said around here, a team with a strong playoff roster can afford to make these kinds of luxury picks (obviously the Chiefs didn't qualify for that designation). But even if my team was coming off of a deep playoff run and had few holes, I would have been furious with this pick. McCluster, or a very similar player, could have likely been had a round (or 2 or 3) later. He also lacked great top-end speed, which is the one thing that might have made this pick make some kind of sense. Experts seemed to give this pick varying grades between decent (citing his big play ability and great character) and terrible.

The here and now: After his rookie season, I was pissed. I figured if they made this pick, they at least had a plan. McCluster appeared to be completely lost in this offense and the coaches had no idea how to use him (granted he missed time with an injury, but what we saw of him was not good). His second year gave me a very small glimmer of hope, as a return to RB seemed to make him a bit more comfortable. I was nervous about them moving him back to WR this season after the disaster that was his rookie year. However, I've been pleasantly surprised so far. He's looked much better running traditional downfield receiver routes and this staff seems to have a much better idea of how to use him (hint: if you run a screen or reverse every time he's in the game, the other team is going to catch on). Unfortunately, outside of the San Diego game his rookie year, he's never really shown anything in the return game either. I still think this was a dumb pick, but McCluster is doing his best to salvage some value from the carnage.

Grade: D. I know the guy seems to have turned a corner, and believe me I'm as happy about it as anyone. But the blatant disregard for positional need and value on this pick leaves me completely jaded. You simply DO NOT draft backups and/or role players in the 2nd round (let alone the high 2nd round) and that's exactly what McCluster is (and that's his ceiling). He could raise this grade a bit with continued improvement, but there's a ceiling built in here.

Round 2, Pick 18 - Javier Arenas, CB, Alabama

2010 Analysis: You're kidding me right? All of the good will Pioli earned with me by taking Berry, he burned with these two 2nd round picks. You could more or less copy and paste the analysis above for McCluster into this section. Arenas was not going to be a starter (I know some of you out there consider slot players to be basically starters in this day and age of the NFL, but I respectfully disagree) and he was extremely poor value at this point in the draft. I'm also very leery of drafting guys for their return ability. This skill is always highly overrated coming out of college where these players make themselves look way better than they really are by running around and away from players that shouldn't have even been on the same field with them most of the time. Not to mention I'd been clamoring for a real NT since they switched to the 3-4 and Terrance Cody was STILL sitting there. Most media outlets, even the ones that went along with the McCluster pick to some degree, seemed confused by the pick of another role player with a 2nd round pick.

The here and now: Arenas started off a little stronger than McCluster, finding a place in the defense at the nickel spot. He struggled a bit in coverage his rookie year, but showed marked improvement in his second season. He's been a huge disappointment returning kickoffs (though it's debatable how much of that is on him and how much is on the blocking unit), but he's done a very respectable job bringing back punts. Unfortunately he looks to have already hit his peak as a solid nickel corner and punt returner. And for those of you who think he can play outside, the Chiefs clearly told you he can't when they chose to play Jacques Reeves every snap of the Atlanta game in Week 1 (even after Julio Jones cooked him to extra crispy in the first half), while Arenas played considerably less.

Grade: D. I can't decide which of these 2nd round picks was worse. I simply did not understand the strategy of choosing role players with two valuable 2nd round picks when there were numerous starting caliber players (at positions of need) still on the board. I understood Pioli's intent to find leaders, team captains and strong character guys, but to draft those qualities at the expense of talent seemed, for the lack of a better word, stupid.

Round 3, Pick 4 - Jon Asamoah, G, Illinois

2010 Analysis: Pioli now has me on a roller coaster. After taking my breath away with the Berry pick in round 1 and then doing the same (but for a much different reason) with both 2nd round picks, Pioli again has me shaking my head in agreement. While not an immediate position of need (Brian Waters and Ryan Lilja were in tow), it was clear there would be youth needed sooner rather than later on the interior of the offensive line. Asamoah was my 2nd rated guard in the entire draft (behind Mike Iupati) and was a perfect fit for the zone blocking scheme. I saw him as a long-term starter at guard and a possible Pro-Bowl type player if everything clicked. Consensus around the league was that this was a very solid pick, if not an excellent one.

The here and now: Asamoah sat his rookie year behind Waters and Lilja (as seems to be the custom on the offensive line now). He moved into the starting lineup last season, after Waters' preseason release, performing admirably for a first year starter. He looked very good pass blocking, but struggled at times in the run game. So far this year he has had his share of struggles, but I remain confident that he can be a long-term pillar on this line.

Grade: A-. Getting the 2nd rated guard in the draft at this pick was excellent value. Asamoah appeared to be a perfect fit, both in terms of scheme and character. This pick gets docked ever so slightly because guard wasn't an immediate need and there were still plenty of holes at starting spots.

Round 3, Pick 29 - Tony Moeaki, TE, Iowa

2010 Analysis: After trading back into the third round, Pioli made another solid pick. The Chiefs desperately needed an infusion of talent at the TE position after trading away Tony Gonzalez and Moeaki looked like a solid addition. Not overwhelmingly talented in any one area, Moeaki boasted a nice broad skill set. He wasn't a prolific pass catcher, but he had enough speed and athleticism to stretch the middle of the field and possessed a pretty nice set of hands. He wasn't a devastating inline blocker, but he was very technically sound in both run and pass blocking. There were two main knocks on Moeaki entering the draft. First, he wasn't the ideal height for the position (measuring in at only 6'3''). And while it would have been nice if he had a few extra inches, I'd rather grab a skilled guy who's 2-3 inches shorter than a 6'6'' TE who can't block or catch. The second weakness was a little more concerning. Moeaki had accumulated quite the medical file while at Iowa. His injuries included two broken feet, concussions, a broken wrist, a dislocated elbow and hamstring and calf problems. Needless to say, the injuries were a major concern. But the thinking was that if the guy could ever stay healthy, he'd be a very solid starter.

The here and now: Moeaki had a very nice rookie season, making some excellent catches (I think we all remember his TD in the San Francisco game) and providing a safety blanket for Matt Cassel in the passing game. He was also a big part of the blocking effort that spurred Jamaal Charles to a sensational year. Just like Berry, I think we all expected a nice step forward in his second year. However, again, we all know what happened. Moeaki has also appeared to have trouble adjusting this season after his ACL injury. He's looked solid blocking for the most part, but his athleticism and speed in the passing game appears to be missing. I'm still holding out hope that he can be a productive player once he recovers completely. There's also no telling what Moeaki would look like right now (or his rookie year for that matter) with a real QB throwing him the ball.

Grade: B. Everyone is going to immediately scream that they could have had Jimmy Graham or Aaron Hernandez with this pick, but that's really abusing hindsight. Graham was completely raw coming out of school and Hernandez had concerns about his blocking and his character. And as mentioned above, there's no telling what Moeaki would have looked like with Drew Brees or Tom Brady throwing him the ball. Overall, I liked the strategy behind this pick. Moeaki had all of the tools to be a productive NFL player, he just needed to stay healthy. To find a productive starter (which is exactly what Moeaki looked like pre-injury) at the back end of the third round is nothing to sneeze at. Obviously this grade is going to be strongly dependent on whether or not Moeaki can get all the way back from this injury and in this case I hold Pioli a bit more responsible (than in Berry's case) as Moeaki had a history to indicate that this was a strong possibility.

Round 5, Pick 5 - Kendrick Lewis, S, Mississippi

2010 Analysis: This one confused me a bit at first. I was expecting them to play Berry at FS since he was so good playing centerfield and creating turnovers and Lewis clearly wasn't going to be playing SS. But once I realized how good Berry was in the run game and that they were going to play him at SS, this made a lot more sense. Lewis, like Moeaki, was a pretty skilled player who fell down draft boards for various reasons. First, he was small, measuring in at 5'11'' and 197 lbs. Second, he didn't have very good timed speed (4.72 40 yard dash). Still, I wasn't overly concerned. Size in a safety, especially one that plays primarily well off the line of scrimmage, isn't a huge concern for me. And while speed is important in the secondary, Lewis appeared to play much faster than he timed. He was also extremely productive (6 INTs, 22 PDs his last two seasons) against top-level competition in the SEC. With Jarrad Page holding out (and eventually getting his ticket out of town), this pick made a lot of sense. Opinions varied greatly on Lewis. Depending on what source you consulted before the draft, he was either a top-5 safety in this draft or an UDFA.

The here and now: Lewis stepped into the starting lineup early in his rookie year and never looked back. He's been pretty productive (6 INTs, 17 PDs his first two years) and really seemed to take on a leadership role on the defense last season. He's not the greatest tackler, but playing next to Berry (who is a good tackler) helps ease that problem. The main concern right now, as with Moeaki, seems to be keeping him healthy as he's yet to play this season because of a shoulder injury.

Grade: B+. Finding a starting safety in the 5th round? Nothing wrong with that. If Lewis can get healthy (and stay healthy), I expect him to remain the starter at FS for the next few years assuming he re-signs with the Chiefs. I think this pick is a good example of Pioli sifting through the numbers and scouting reports and figuring out, at least in this case, what's important (production, intangibles, level of competition) and what's not (size, timed speed).

Round 5, Pick 11 - Cameron Sheffield, DE/LB, Troy

2010 Analysis: I'd been screaming for a pass rusher to play opposite Tamba Hali since this draft started, and in the 5th round, Pioli finally took one. Because of his alma mater, Sheffield drew immediate comparisons to DeMarcus Ware. He wasn't that level of prospect coming out, but Sheffield certainly possessed an intriguing skill set. He had a very quick first step and showed a good ability to bend and get around the edge in the pass game. There were however concerns about his ability to stand his ground in the run game and his technique in both areas needed some work. I would have rather grabbed Cam Thomas as a NT prospect, but OLB was certainly a need and Sheffield had some nice upside as a pass rusher.

The here and now: Sheffield missed his entire rookie season after a scary neck injury during preseason. He returned last year, but I never saw the pass rushing ability that he was said to possess during the draft process. There's no telling whether or not the injury robbed him of some of his skills, but I didn't see anything in his play to get excited about. Sheffield was cut earlier this season when Tamba Hali returned from his suspension.

Grade: C. A solid upside pick. They certainly needed another pass rusher and Troy had a history of producing some pretty good ones (not that I believe in that sort of thing holding much water). Unfortunately Sheffield never seemed to turn the corner (literally and figuratively). I like the strategy behind the pick, it just didn't work out.

Overall Draft Grade: B-

Apart from the 2nd round, I loved this draft. They filled a lot of needs (S, G, TE, LB) and brought in a lot of talented players, landing possible starters even in rounds 3 and 5. The Berry and Asamoah picks in particular scored very high on my grade sheet.

Unfortunately, the 2nd round actually took place. There's not much more to say about these picks other than what was said above. Probably the best way I can show my frustrations with this draft is to point you to the 2012 draft. The Chiefs selected WR Devon Wylie and CB DeQuan Menzie, both great slot players (though we obviously haven't seen them at the NFL level yet), in rounds 4 and 5 respectively. Ignoring for the moment that I thought even Wylie was a reach in round 4, this is a perfect example of how you can find these types of players later in the draft.

The injuries to Berry and Moeaki, and their subsequent struggles this season, obviously drag this grade down a bit more. Still, I really liked the vast majority of these picks at the time and I can't bash Pioli too hard for the catastrophic knee injuries that Berry and Moeaki experienced last season.

I know this draft drew a lot of interest from fans. What did you guys think? Where am I off? Comment on!

Scott Pioli: Draft Genius or Draft Fraud?

polodude017 — Tue, 02 Oct 2012 21:33:26 -0000

As the losses (and blowouts) mount in Kansas City, the pressure continues to build on many within the organization. Matt Cassel has born the brunt of these attacks. Clark Hunt and Romeo Crennel have also taken their share of abuse in the past few weeks. But possibly the biggest scapegoat in all of this has been Scott Pioli. Certainly I would agree that Pioli deserves his fair share of the blame. He's already swung and missed once in an attempt to hire a coach when he brought in and then subsequently fired Todd Haley. And from my vantage point, he appears to have whiffed a second time by hiring Romeo Crennel. So I'll just go ahead and say it: if you want to fire Scott Pioli because he has hired two unsuccessful coaches, that's fine. It's my personal opinion that he should be allowed one more shot (so this organization can at least maintain some sort of consistency), but I understand that most GM's don't get to hire three head coaches (and for good reason). So if you want to fire him based on that, I won't groan too loudly.

But I've also seen Pioli's talent acquisition history and draft record come under serious scrutiny during this tumultuous young season. And that my friends is something that I do not think I can get behind. So I'm here to do the dirty work and break down all four of Scott Pioli's drafts since he came to Kansas City. The nuts and bolts after the jump.

NOTE: This got exceedingly long, so I'm going to break these into separate posts for each draft.

2009

1st round, 3rd pick - Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU

2009 Analysis: Off the cuff, I thought this was a reach. Jackson honestly hadn't even been in my head as an option at #3. At the time I wanted either Aaron Curry or BJ Raji. However, the more I thought about it, I understood the strategy. They were moving to the 3-4 scheme with zero players who fit the bill as a prototypical 3-4 end. Jackson looked to be the best of the bunch and he was by no means a bad prospect. More of a run stopper than a pass rusher, he looked like a good fit as a 5-technique in the new scheme. I wasn't a huge fan of the pick, but I understood the logic.

The here and now: Obviously most of us are aware of what Jackson has become. He's a stalwart in the run game, absorbing a ton of double teams and being disruptive when he's not doubled. Unfortunately he never developed really any pass rush ability, so he's mostly a two-down player. He's not the stud most would hope for with a top-5 pick, but as you can see by looking at the first round results from 2009, there weren't many of those out there.

Grade: C. A solid contributor who didn't quite reach his potential. Obviously they were hoping for more from a #3 overall selection, but he also didn't bottom out like he could have after his horrible rookie year.

3rd round, 3rd pick - Alex Magee, DT/DE, Purdue

2009 Analysis: I was not a fan of this pick. While Magee looked to be a decent value at this point in the draft, he was a poor fit schematically. More of a penetrator who looked to fit better in a 4-3 scheme, I was worried how he would fit in the new 3-4 defense the Chiefs were installing. Not only that, the Chiefs had just used a top-5 pick the previous year on Glenn Dorsey. In my opinion, it would have been best to see what, if anything, Dorsey could offer the team in the new scheme before doubling down on DE's with your first two picks, especially when there were so many other holes on this team.

The here and now: After basically playing the Allen Bailey role his rookie year (nickel pass rusher), Magee was traded a few games into his sophomore season. Glenn Dorsey had done an admirable job at the right end spot and it was apparent that Magee did not fit in the 2-gap scheme the team was running. He's currently in the Arena League.

Grade: D-. He was a poor fit for the scheme and he ended up without a spot anyways as Dorsey took to the 3-4 scheme better than most thought he would. The only thing that saves this from being an F is that he was a solid value at this point in the draft, so I can't completely Al Davis Pioli on this pick.

4th round, 2nd pick - Donald Washington, CB, Ohio State

2009 Analysis: A pick that I didn't really like, but couldn't completely bash because of the athletic potential. I didn't like the lack of production in college and he seemed like he might be a bit of a CB/S tweener, but he was an outstanding athlete who I thought might find a home somewhere in the secondary. Seemed like a very un-Pioli pick as he'd had some off-the-field troubles and wasn't exactly a leader on those Buckeye teams.

The here and now: Moved from CB to S after they realized he couldn't cover, he was then cut when they realized he couldn't tackle either. A good athlete with no football smarts and not enough god-given ability to get by.

Grade: D-. Another decent value at this point in the draft that just didn't work out. I wasn't a fan of the pick at the time and thought they would have been better off going with solid football player who didn't test well rather than big-time athletes with questions around their on-the-field play. Again, Pioli escapes the dreaded F because Washington was absolutely solid value in the 4th round of this draft.

5th round, 3rd pick - Colin Brown, OT, Missouri

2009 Analysis: I was shocked. I couldn't find him on any of the draft sites and there was still a fair amount of interesting names left on the board. Clearly there was help needed on the offensive line, but Brown didn't appear to be the guy to supply it. At 6'7'' and 325 lbs, he was an exceedingly large man. However he played in an odd offense at Missouri and looked to be quite the project.

The here and now: Never played a game for Kansas City, though he did catch on as a backup with the Bills. A real reach who would have probably been an UDFA if the Chiefs hadn't picked him.

Grade: F. I can't defend this pick at all. Horrible value and the guy never even made an active roster or played in a game for the Chiefs.

6th round, 2nd pick - Quinten Lawrence, WR, McNeese State

2009 Analysis: I actually liked this pick. Lawrence had displayed good speed in college and, at 6'1'', he had pretty decent size for that type of explosive WR. He had had some injury problems in college and had the occasional bout of the dropsies, but the potential was there for him to be a playmaking slot receiver or, if everything clicked, a Torrey Smith type of big play threat on the outside. Not bad upside for a 6th rounder.

The here and now: Obviously the above scenario never played out. Lawrence had trouble getting on the field and when he did, he didn't show much. It looked as though the college injuries had worn him down. The Chiefs eventually moved him to CB before releasing him in 2011.

Grade: C. You can't really get upset about a 6th round pick not panning out. I thought Lawrence had some nice potential, which is what you are looking for in late round picks. Unfortunately it just didn't work out for him. But still, the thought process in drafting him was sound in my opinion.

7th round, 3rd pick - Javarris Williams, RB, Tennessee State

2009 Analysis: I was okay with taking a RB at this point. Good backs can be found this late in the draft, Jamaal Charles hadn't yet broken out and even if he had, it was apparent that they were going to need to replace Larry Johnson soon. However, my man-crush Rashad Jennings was still on the board and I couldn't pick out anything discerning about Williams. He had a decent build, but wasn't overly powerful. He didn't have much "wiggle" to him and his speed was average at best. I just wasn't seeing an NFL runningback when I looked at him.

The here and now: After one season and six carries, Williams was jettisoned. Again, you can't get too up in arms about a 7th round pick, but at this point in the draft you should be looking for guys who can stick on a roster in some capacity. I didn't see that with Williams.

Grade: D. As a 7th round pick, there wasn't a ton expected of Williams. That's what keeps this from an F. He was a decent value at this point (read: he was a draftable player), but there were better players still on the board.

7th round, 28th pick - Jake O'Connell, TE, Miami (OH)

2009 Analysis: Another meh late round pick. There was nothing that really stood out about O'Connell. He didn't have great statistics even though he played at a smaller school and he wasn't overly athletic. About the best thing you could say about him was that he had a classic TE build (6'4'', 250 lbs).

The here and now: O'Connell has somehow managed to hang around on the active roster since he was drafted despite not playing much and not paying very well when he has. So that's saying something.

Grade: C-. I wasn't a huge fan of the pick, but any 7th rounder that sticks on a roster for at least a handful of years has to warrant at least a half decent grade.

7th round, 47th pick - Ryan Succop, K, South Carolina

2009 Analysis: This pick never should have happened, but probably not why you think. The Chiefs shouldn't have needed a kicker because they should have drafted Mason Crosby (if they were intent on taking a kicker) in 2007 instead of wasting 5th round pick on Justin Medlock. Still, Succop came with solid leg strength and appeared to have good accuracy when he wasn't battling nagging leg injuries.

The here and now: Say what you will about the guy, but he's probably a league average kicker at this point. He does a solid job on kickoffs, makes most of the ones he's supposed to and a few of the 50+ variety. The only complaint I would have with him is that he occasionally misses one that he really should make, but the guy is a solid kicker who has probably taken more of a beating here on AP than he deserves.

Grade: B. I know he's just a kicker, but to get a contributor out of the last pick in the draft is nothing to sneeze at. The guy has stuck on the roster and I don't really think he's in any danger of losing his spot unless something changes.

Overall Grade - D+

I know everyone wants to crucify Pioli for this draft, and believe me it wasn't good. He only walked out of Radio City Music Hall that year with a few possible starters, which isn't enough when you're trying to build a team from the ground up. Now granted, he traded away his 2nd round pick for a starting QB in Matt Cassel, but too many of the guys he took in this draft had zero chance to start in the NFL.

Still, take one look down the draft results for 2009. I'll save you the time, it's not pretty. There were tons of busts in the first round. And it's not like there were a bunch of guys taken in the 2nd through 7th rounds that evened that out some. Overall it was just a poor draft and Pioli did pretty much as bad as most. He was also still using the scouts from the Carl Peterson regime, and while I don't think that was as big a deal as some made it out to be, I have to think it made some kind of impact. For these reasons I have trouble completely dumping on the guy for this draft.

Still, he came out with a solid contributor on the defensive line in Tyson Jackson (who I expect to be renegotiated this coming offseason to keep him in KC). He also picked up a kicker who has stuck with the team and looks to be fairly well entrenched moving forward. It was the 6 picks between those two that killed him. Some of those I can understand the thinking behind and not fault him too much for (because there's only so much you can expect out of picks in rounds 4-7), but others I can't.

Next up: 2010

PS: I realize this first installment probably hasn't talked anyone off the ledge in regards to Pioli, but believe me the worst is behind us. Please stay with me through the rest of the series, then feel free to go ahead and pass judgement.

Deep (Game) Thoughts with Jack Handey (aka polodude)

polodude017 — Wed, 12 Sep 2012 01:02:07 -0000

During the game Sunday I felt almost overwhelmed and somewhat distracted. It was Week 1 of the NFL season (which always has me excited), the bar I frequent for the games had the Chiefs game off in the worst corner TV in the joint and I was semi-regularly checking in on my two fantasy teams. Of course it probably also didn't help that I was hanging out with one of my good buddies who was feeding me beer starting an hour before kickoff. Regardless, as I read through the posts today I realized I didn't get to watch the game quite as closely as I normally like to. So since NFL Rewind is running a free trial right now, I went back and re-watched the whole game. Be warned, this will probably be fairly long so if you have a short attention span or prefer to watch/read about the game at a high-level, I would advise you to skip this. My thoughts after the jump.

(Kudos to those of you who got the SNL reference in the title)

Offense:

-Jamaal Charles looked really good. He had a few runs that got stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, but all but one of those were because of a missed assignment on the offensive line. He had that great burst back and really just looked great. I wouldn't read anything into him getting caught from behind on that one long run, the DB got just enough of him to trip him up and throw him off balance.

-Hillis got killed by missed blocking assignments (more on the line below). He's not the kind of guy that's going to turn nothing into something (like Charles and McCluster can). They need to provide him cleaner lanes to run through. He definitely gets a mulligan here.

-Eachus and Draughn were on the field too much for my taste, and I'm not talking about after the game was blown open. I don't have the exact numbers, but I would guess each was on the field for at least a handful of plays in the 1st half. That might not seem like much, but with Draughn that's taking away carries from Charles/Hillis and with Eachus that's one guy on the the field that the defense can almost ignore. I understand that a portion of their playbook probably calls for a FB, but I'd rather see Moeaki or Hillis in that role if it's required.

-On a related note, I thought the position grouping choices were a bit odd. Moeaki and Boss were almost never on the field together and either were Charles and Hillis (two packages that I would think would cause defenses a lot of problems). I'd also love to see some sets where they go four wide with McCluster, Bowe, Baldwin and Breaston. It just doesn't make sense to me to force a lot of I formation when they don't have a FB (let alone a good one), especially when they have so many other weapons to use at WR, TE and RB.

-I noticed Jon Baldwin on exactly one play and it was because he made a pathetic attempt to block a corner which allowed a run play to get blown up in the backfield. They need to make a more concerted effort to get him involved in this offense (and conversely use him to take some shots down the field, which they really didn't do).

-I really liked how they used McCluster. In his rookie year, when they had him at receiver, I thought they had him run way too many short routes (slants, screens, quick outs etc) and not enough traditional downfield receiver routes. It was far too predictable and you could tell by the way defenses handled him. Daboll used him on a couple short routes, but he also got him downfield on some dig routes and posts. A huge improvement.

-I thought the line looked pretty darn good with a few exceptions. Obviously Albert got abused on the sack/fumble in the third quarter, but that was really the only bad breakdown in pass protection that I can remember (light years ahead of the Barry Richardson years). The other things I noticed were just small misses in the run game, mostly by the guy on the move (i.e. pulling). In the zone blocking scheme it's little misses like this that are the difference between positive (and possibly big) plays and plays getting blown up in the backfield. I'd look for the line to gel as the season moves on and be really good eventually.

-Matt Cassel. Great first half. Second half, you could tell he really pressed once they got down by multiple scores. However, the fumble really wasn't his fault and I don't think the first pick was either. I'm definitely giving him the benefit of the doubt for now. It's unreasonable to expect him to put points on the board EVERY possession (which is basically what he was being forced to do to keep them in this game). A better effort by the defense will do wonders for him.

Defense:

-On second blush, I was even more impressed with the run defense than I was on first watch. There was really only one run where they got gashed and that was because Jerrell Powe made too much of an attempt to get up the field instead of just anchoring and holding the point of attack. Dontari Poe looked pretty darn good (with a few exceptions here and there). He held the point pretty well and obviously had the one nice play behind the LOS that we all saw.

-The pick plays, yeah those were pretty bad. I don't like to cry about reffing though, so I'll just move on and chalk it up to the replacement refs.

-Justin Houston had himself a pretty solid game. He had the sack deep in KC territory to force a FG and had a few other pressures that messed up Ryan's timing. Put Hali on the other side and I'm really excited about the potential here.

-As many have said, there wasn't much of a pass rush. Part of that was indeed a product of the Chiefs players and scheme. Romeo went with a lot of 3 and 4 man rushes and they simply didn't get much (if any) push. Obviously missing Hali really hurt here, but the absence of Bailey also hurt as Jackson, Dorsey and even Pitoitua were in more pass rushing situations than they should have been. When they brought additional pressure, it really didn't work. I'm not sure if that was the blitz design or the Falcons line just playing really well, but they picked up almost all of them.

-The other part was somewhat out of their control. On a lot of pass plays Matt Ryan simply got the ball out VERY quickly. There were very few balls that went deep down the field. They went with a lot of quick passes which really didn't allow the pass rush to get anywhere near Ryan. This is partly because they were playing off the receivers a lot to prevent getting burnt deep, but with Reeves and Elam in there, I can't really blame Romeo for being cautious and trying to keep everything underneath.

-Romeo seemed to play a lot of zone (definitely more than normal) and they didn't do a good job with it. I would guess that this was a product of having to play Reeves so much, but Ryan absolutely picked them apart. I'd look for them to come with a lot more man coverage once Flowers returns as this really seemed to be what worked best during their great defensive run last season.

-No one should be complaining about Stanford Routt. With the exception of one play where Julio Jones absolutely manhandled him when Routt tried to jam him, he had a pretty damn solid game.

-Jacque Reeves on the other hand got abused. However, I can't really fault him for two reasons. 1) No one should expect the fifth corner on a team (let alone one that's been out of football for two years) to come in and be able to hold down Roddy White or Julio Jones. 2) They really didn't give him much safety help, which I found pretty curious.

-On a related note, the fact that Reeves played every snap and Arenas didn't see the field a ton on defense makes me question what this staff thinks of Javier. I'd agree that he's probably too small to match up with some of the bigger receivers in this league, but he's a decent cover guy and Reeves was getting killed. I was a little worried that he was limited potential wise when they drafted him and if he can't get on the field in the base defense over a guy like Reeves, then my suspicions are likely confirmed. I'm not really sure what to make of this.

-Derrick Johnson looked great in the run game, but had a few bad miscues in the passing game. My guess would be that the ankle was probably bothering him a little, so I'm not overly concerned.

-I really have nothing against Jovan Belcher, but this is a spot they can upgrade on this defense. If they don't bring in some serious competition for him, either in the draft of FA, next offseason I'll be a little annoyed.

-Eric Berry looked solid. No wow plays, but didn't really get beat either. I'd expect him to improve as he gains more confidence in his knee.

-Ryan absolutely killed them when he scrambled. This needs to improve, especially against guys that aren't named Newton or Vick.

Special Teams:

-Ryan Succop, I'm sorry man but you've gotta make that FG. No excuses. I'm not calling for the guy's head (yet), but he's gotta show more consistency.

-For a team that keeps a pretty fair amount of players on the roster for their supposed special teams expertise, they really aren't very good in this area. The big return was obviously very costly and they got their usual nothing in the return game. Something needs to change here in my opinion, either coaching or scheme or something. A team with guys like Arenas, McCluster and Wiley should not have this much trouble getting something going in the return game.

Overall:

Overall, the tape really wasn't nearly as bad as the score would lead you to believe. It's easy to watch the defense and see that getting the injured players back (and even just Hali and Flowers) will do wonders. They played the run really well and the combination of the improved pass rush that Hali will bring and the improved coverage that Flowers will bring should help move the pass defense back towards the mean.

The offense was excellent in the first half and really shouldn't be expected to carry this team like they had to in this game. If the offense is this good going forward, this team is going to win a lot of games. I really don't think it's time to panic (unless of course the injuries persist), as it's easy to see what went wrong in this game: the Falcons are really good, the Chiefs were missing a ton of players on defense and there were a few miscues in the second half (some of which I would guess wouldn't have happened if the offense wasn't feeling to much pressure to score every time they got the ball). Let's all hope for some quick healing and a bounceback against the Bills this weekend.

Player Options for Chiefs in Draft and Free Agency: Offense

polodude017 — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 01:40:10 -0000

With the signing of Stanford Routt, the offseason is in full swing. There's tons of discussion going on here about what will happen, and as of now (like Joel in his "predictions" article) I'm going to make a few assumptions:

1) Brandon Carr won't be back. Whether is be straight to free-agency or tagged and traded, I think the Routt signing seals his fate.

2) Dwayne Bowe will be back. Either he signs long-term in the next two weeks or they slap the tag on him.

I think these are two pretty safe assumptions at this point. So that should leave us with a pretty clear view of Kansas City's needs moving into free-agency and the draft. More on those needs and possible solutions after the jump.

1) Brandon Carr won't be back. Whether is be straight to free-agency or tagged and traded, I think the Routt signing seals his fate.

2) Dwayne Bowe will be back. Either he signs long-term in the next two weeks or they slap the tag on him.

For the purposes of this article, I'm defining "position of need" as a position that the Chiefs either need an upgrade or could stand to see an upgrade (and could at least use some competition). As options, I'm listing guys who I feel could come in and be a solution at the position next season. So what needs do the Chiefs have? Which positions will they (or should they) be targeting in either free-agency or the draft? I'll go through the offense today and try to hit the defense tomorrow.

Left Guard:

Could they get by with Ryan Lilja for another year? Probably (maybe). Could Rodney Hudson maybe play guard with a veteran center stepping in next to him? Maybe. But I think the best scenario for the Chiefs has them picking up a new left guard. Lilja saw a huge dropoff in his play last season and Hudson, in my opinion, is better suited at center where his size (or lack thereof) is less of a concern.

Free agency:

Carl Nicks - He's the prize at guard in free-agency. A great player who is going to require a large contract.

Ben Grubbs - A very good player who missed 6 games last year to injury (zero the previous three years). Will cost less than Nicks.

Evan Mathis - A little older than both Nicks and Grubbs, but he's really only played two and a half actual seasons (37 games started in his career).

Kraig Urbik - I liked him coming out of the draft and he's been a solid player. Not the name or production of the three above, but would be a solid upgrade over Lilja.

Draft:

David DeCastro - The best guard prospect in years and he should be available at 11/12. Should be a plug and play guy who can step in from Day 1.

Kevin Zeitler - Won't cost a first round pick and is a very good fit for the Chiefs blocking scheme. Had a nice Senior Bowl and should be available in round 2 (maybe even round 3).

Prediction: As much as everyone would love to sign Nicks, I don't see it happening. I like DeCastro, but I think it will be easier to find a left guard in free-agency than a right tackle (and I think they need upgrades at both positions). I think they make a serious run at Grubbs and settle for a lesser option like Urbik (or maybe even Kory Lichtensteiger) if that falls through. I'm gonna say Grubbs here.

Right Tackle:

This really needs much less of an explanation than left guard. Barry Richardson is not the answer and I'm not willing to bet anyone else on the roster (O'Callaghan, Mims) is either.

Free-agency:

Demetrius Bell - He played well at left tackle last year, but suffered through injuries and managed to play only 7 games (6 starts).

Kareem McKenzie - He's been solid for a long time, but his played dropped off badly this past season.

Anthony Collins - Stuck behind Andre Smith on the depth chart, he's played well in limited playing time. I liked him coming out of the draft and he could be a steal.

Draft:

Riley Reiff - Can play both sides and he should be able to start from Day 1. Might not be there when the Chiefs select in round 1.

Jonathan Martin - An excellent pass blocker who isn't quite as good in the run game. Very athletic, but more of a finesse guy a this point. There's at least a decent chance he's there in round 1.

Mike Adams - Great size and very athletic. Inconsistent, but could be an excellent NFL tackle. Probably a bit of a reach at 11/12, but could be a target with a trade back.

Prediction: After picking up Grubbs in free-agency, the Chiefs trade back and grab Adams in round 1 (and get another pick in the process). That's a pretty nice line to work with.

Tight End:

Yes, Tony Moeaki is coming back from injury and he looked very good in his rookie year. He also has a fairly long injury history and honestly I would have liked to pick up another tight end regardless. I love the idea of exposing mismatches with two tight end sets (ala the Patriots) and Leonard Pope (free-agent) and Jake O'Connell aren't the guys to do that.

Free-agency:

Martellus Bennett - Graded out very well as a blocker and he's got the athletic ability to be much better in the passing game than he has shown so far. Shouldn't cost a ton. He's only 25.

Joel Dreessen - A solid blocker and a capable receiver. Another solid and probably inexpensive option.

John Carlson - He's been pretty productive, but saw a big drop-off this past season. Could be a good buy-low candidate.

Draft:

Dwayne Allen - Athletic and a good blocker and receiver. A complete player who would be a very nice addition. Pegged for the late first or early second round.

Coby Fleener - Very good receiver. Shows good effort in the run game, but isn't a great blocker. Just like Allen, he's being pegged for the late first or early second round.

Orson Charles - Good receiver and should be there in round 2 (maybe even round 3).

Prediction: The Chiefs, looking to fill other needs in the draft, opt for one of the thrifty options in free-agency to provide more depth and options at the position. My money is on Carlson.

Quarterback:

Free-agency:

Matt Flynn: Very limited playing time. Is he for real? How much will it take to sign him? Sounds like he wants to go play for Philbin in Miami.

David Garrard: He's Matt Cassel with a better deep ball. He's probably not the guy to get the Chiefs to a Super Bowl, but he could be a better stopgap than Cassel who could buy them some more time to find a guy in the draft.

Jason Campbell - He's been decent in both DC and Oakland, but got bumped out by McNabb (in DC) and Palmer (in Oakland). Again, he's probably not the guy to get the Chiefs to a Super Bowl, but he could be an upgrade.

Kyle Orton: Same as above. Nothing spectacular, but he could be a better option than Cassel.

Chad Henne - Same as above (again). Daboll is familiar with him and he's got a good arm. Poor decision maker.

Draft:

Robert Griffin III - He's got tons of talent, but I'm worried about his size. It will cost a lot to move up and get him. If you hitch your wagon to him, he better be the answer.

Ryan Tannehill - He's got a foot injury that will keep him out of the combine and he doesn't have a ton of experience. Probably won't be there in round 2.

The next group - After these two (and Luck) there's the next group of Nick Foles, Brock Osweiler, Brandon Weeden and Kirk Cousins. Personally I don't consider any of them strong bets to develop into a good NFL quarterback.

Prediction: I can't see them trading the picks to get Griffin and I don't think Tannehill is there in round 2. I'm not high on anyone from the next group and I can't see them going into next season with Cassel, Stanzi and a rookie anyways (I suppose they could dump Cassel for another veteran in this scenario, but I can't see that happening). Of the free-agent options, they are most familiar with Orton and I think he's who they go for. I know everyone wants to dream here, but I think this is the most likely scenario. And honestly, with that the line above and those options in the passing game, we could see some substantial improvement.

I'd agree with everyone that runningback depth is also a need, but there's so many options at the position (Green-Ellis, Bush, Tolbert, Kevin Smith, Ryan Grant and a pile of draft options) that it would take me another page (we're already at 1500 words) to get through the options and honestly I'm not that concerned about it. There's so many options that I'm almost certain they'll find a suitable addition to what they have in Charles and McCluster. I'll be back with the defense tomorrow. Feel free to discuss in the comments.