SB Nation User Blog: poz

Evans, Owens and Edwards

poz — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 22:01:53 -0000

One thing this off-season which has to be on the minds of just about every fan, analyst, and fantasy jock of the NFL has been what kind of production we will see in Buffalo this year between Lee Evans and Terrell Owens, and thus indirectly, young signal caller Trent Edwards. Most NFL analysts seem to think that the best we should hope for is about 65-85 catches, 900-1,000 yards and 6-8 TDs from TO and 55-70 catches, 700-900 yards and 5-7 TDs from Evans. On the other hand, most Bills fans appear to be divided about 50/50 between those who expect around the same and those who expect great production from both. After reading kaisertown's recent post in which he briefly discussed how many may be disappointed by TOs performance this year I got to really thinking about what I should expect from our offense, namely our two star receivers and QB. I've decided to go out on a limb and declare something which could very well have me eating a lot of crow at the end of the year since I'm dedicating a whole post to it but whatever: Terrell Owens and Lee Evans will each exceed 1,000 yards receiving and each will have double digits scores or be very very close to it. Before you say I'm crazy hear out my long winded explanation.

To begin with, let's talk about last year's offense. Last year the Bills passed the ball on 52% of our offensive snaps, demonstrative of Turk Schonert's balanced playcalling with the personnel he saw on the field. I don't think it takes a genius to notice that in 2008, the Buffalo Bills were far more talented in the running game then in the passing game. Schonert went into the season seeing he had guards like Dockery and Butler (and was subsequently let down) and a solid o-line and running backs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson compared to Evans, a young QB and a host of very bland pass catchers through the air. Despite this talent discrepancy, the 52% passing plays called should demonstrate that Turk Schonert is at heart a guy who wants to attack through the air. With Terrell Owens on board and not knowing what he has on the interior of the line Schonert should push that percentage higher in 2009. By taking a look at teams that had multiple receiving threats in the air we can see what we can reasonably expect: Arizona passed 65% of the time, Cincinatti 55%, Cleveland 54%, Dallas 58%, Denver 62%, Houston 56%, Green Bay 53%, and the New York Jets 56%. If we average those teams out we hit 57%. With Marshawn Lynch sitting out three games, TO demanding the ball and playing a tough schedule that will have us in highly competitive games I don't think its unreasonable to expect us to throw the ball about 55-59% of the plays called.

Now let's look at Trent Edwards in 2008. During the '08 season Edwards attempted 374 throws, completing 65.5% of them for 245 completions. If Trent Edwards can stay healthy his number of attempts should increase on their own but if you throw in the factors of a likely increase in the amount our offense takes to the air, the no huddle offense we plan to unveil, the Lynch suspension, the high quality of opponents and the extension of drives by an improved offensive unit is it to preposterous to expect around 500 attempts from Edwards in his third season? Before you go haywire understand that the natural development of QBs is to trust them more and allow them to throw more with each passing season. Not only that, 500 attempts will not turn us into a high octane passing attack. High octane offenses are quaterbacked by guys like Tom Brady who in 2008 attempted well over 500 passes going for 578 passes. In 2008 Drew Brees attempted 635 and in 07 he attempted 655, in 08 Peyton Manning threw 555 times, Kurt Warner hit 598 in 08, Aaron Rodgers 559 in 2008, Tony Romo in 13 games tossed it 450 times in 2008, Donovan McNabb 571 in 08, Carson Palmer threw it 575 times in 07 and Jay Cutler took to the air 616 times in 08. If you think I'm comparing passer friendly teams then consider that even Joe Flacco, in the uber conservative approach of the Baltimore Ravens who ran the ball the most in the league and on 58% of their called offensive plays still threw the ball 428 times! Expecting around 500 attempts is really not that crazy if Edwards remains healthy considering our firepower.

Now, an opinion many like to cite is that Lee Evans will not be able to put up big numbers with Terrell Owens in town namely because there simply aren't enough balls to go around between the two of them and that TO demanding the ball will leave fewer opportunities for Evans. I think rather than seeing Evans opportunities take a steep decline, TOs presence in fact will result in a major crashing back to Earth for Josh Reed, despite many opinions that he will flourish with two star targets to open things up for him. In 2008, Schonert and Edwards rarely got the ball to the other receivers outside of Buffalo's number 1 and 2 receivers, Evans and Reed: Roscoe Parrish 24 times, Steve Johnson 10 times, James Hardy 9 times. Of Edwards' 245 total completions 162, or 66%, went to the receivers in 2008, of which 119 out of the 162 went to numbers 1 and 2, Evans and Reed. That means that 73.4% of passes to recievers went to our number 1and number 2 guys. If Edwards throws the ball 500 times in 2009 at a similar completion percentage as 2008 and if Edwards maintains the same tendencies as last year, then he will complete 328 passes, 66% of which, or 216 passes, go to the receiving corp. If Edwards again looks to his top two targets and using the number 73.4% then Terrell Owens and Lee Evans will have approximately 159 catches to share, or 80 receptions a piece. While Edwards will obviously not have the same tendencies that he did in 2008, the only shift I can imagine would be a greater amount of his throws going to his highly talented receiving corp in 2009 and probably fewer balls to go around to guys like Marshawn Lynch (47 catches in 08) and Fred Jackson (37 catches in 08). With Evans averaging 15 yards or more per catch in each of his seasons and with TO averaging 15 yards per catch in his last two, I'd say around 80 catches will get them both over 1,000 yards.

Let's look at touchdowns now. Looking at Lee Evans career, an obvious stat which sticks out to the knowledgeable Bills fan is that during his first two seasons, the only time Evans has ever played opposite a comparable threat to himself were his first two seasons in 2004 and 2005 when Eric Moulds put up 88-1,043-5 and 81-816-4. During that two season span Lee Evans caught a whopping 16 touchdowns, as a rookie and a sophomore, thats the same amount of scores as Calvin Johnson his first two seasons! This should remind us all of how dangerous our recently paid receiver can truly be when hes got someone else drawing attention on the other side of the field. One could argue that his yardage and catch production was lacking but I would respond as a rookie and sophomore he was our #2 option to Moulds #1, while now he and Owens are co-#1s. Those touchdowns were scored by Evans in 2004 when QB Drew Bledsoe attempted 450 passes at a 56.9% completion percentage and in 2005 when JP Losman and Kelly Holcomb combined to complete 58.5% of their passes while throwing 458 attempts. That was a rookie Evans scoring 9 TDs in 2004 opposite Moulds, a veteran one should push for similar stats playing opposite Owens and if Edwards throws 500 times and maintains his accurate ways at plus 60%.

Finally, Owens presence in the red zone should increase Lee Evans production there. To go along with his 16 TDs in his first two years, Evans has 16 TDs in his last three. Of those 16, just five have come in the red zone, including just one in 2008 and just one in 2006 despite being targeted 354 times during that span. Owens by contrast was targeted 407 times over the last three years and scored 38 TDs of which over the last three years 6 were in the redzone in 08, 6 in the red zone in 07 and 7 in the red zone in 06. Owens has 19 redzone TDs over the last three years compared to Evans' 16 total touchdowns. In fact, Owens' 6 red zone TDs in 08 was more than our all our recievers last year in the red zone and his 10 total TDs was more than our total 9!

Evans has demonstrated he can make tough grabs in the red zone (helmet grab?) and with TO that much of a threat inside the 20, Evans should see a whole lot of space, the amount of space a talent like Evans should never get that close to paydirt. Expect a huge spike in Lee's redzone TD production. Of course, Owens putting up double digit TDs should not be too much of a concern, he has more than 10 scores in 7 out of the last 9 seasons (one of which was his getting booted by Philly year).

Phew....there you have it. Let me know if you think I'm a jerk, if you think maybe I'm on to something or if you think I should be fired for thinking about this all day at work. Thanks to kaisertown for getting me thinking about this and I think its a healthy discussion for us all to have. We have some very good receivers and of course, if what I predict does come true it would also mean a big time arrival for our QB. Poll below.

Poll

Will Terrell Owens and Lee Evans have 1,000 yard seasons and double digit touchdowns?

Owens Shining in Practice

poz — Sun, 31 May 2009 06:10:05 -0000

Owens Shining in Practice

Madden 10 Maybin, Wood rankings

poz — Sat, 30 May 2009 20:50:04 -0000

Madden 10 Maybin, Wood rankings

EA sports released its rankings for the entire 1st round draft class for the upcoming game and as usual demonstrate their incompetence. Eric Wood receives a 71, the lowest rating of any 1st rounder while Maybin gets a 78.

Maybin Overall: 78
Finesse Moves: 87
Power Moves: 73
Tackle: 72
Speed: 84

Wood Overall: 71
Strength: 84
Run Blocking Footwork: 82
Run Blocking Strength: 81
Pass Block Strength: 76

Whitner Ranked 9th Best Safety

poz — Fri, 29 May 2009 14:24:37 -0000

Whitner Ranked 9th Best Safety

After getting an e-mail from BB.Com that the Sporting News' team of former NFL scouts had compiled a list of the top 20 NFL safeties and that Donte Whitner hit number 9, I had to check out the list for myself. Whitner is ranked one slot ahead of Kerry Rhodes and five ahead of Sean Jones, a free agent many us wanted to sign. He's also ahead of Atogwe, another popular name around here, LaRon Landry and Brandon Meriweather.

9. Donte Whitner, Bills. Pending legal issues aside, Whitner is an instinctive playmaker who can play in traffic or in space. He is a rising young player who has a physical style and is strong in run support.

Two interesting notes from Fan Friday

poz — Tue, 26 May 2009 16:02:26 -0000

Two interesting notes from Fan Friday

Chris Brown on Friday:

" [Fred] Jackson meanwhile has been split out a lot, and I mean a lot. More so than he was last year. That’s very telling considering the depth the Bills have a WR. Jackson has been out wide more than Parrish as far as I have seen."

" [Pisa] Tinoisamoa remains an option, but at the right price. He’d be no more than a two down LB for the Bills because I think Poz and Mitchell would still be the nickel LBs, so spending big money wouldn’t make sense."

Interesting, Fred Jackson is lining up at WR a lot? I think I like that idea...

If they don't want Pisa to be a three down linebacker then the only way we land him is if Chicago doesn't view him as one either and we both low ball him.

Go vote for Bills

poz — Tue, 19 May 2009 18:26:11 -0000

Go vote for Bills

NFL.COM has a poll up asking how the Bills will fare with TO:

So far 18% say losing record, 57% say competitive but fall short of playoffs, 23% say playoffs, and 2% say Super Bowl.

Go vote for the playoffs!

Pats want DE Burgess, We should too!

poz — Tue, 19 May 2009 15:03:14 -0000

Pats want DE Burgess, We should too!

Boston Herald reports the Pats are looking to nab Raiders DE Derrick Burgess for a future 2nd or 3rd round pick. I think we should get in there with the bidding. Sure he's 31 and sure he has been hurt recently and only registered 3.5 sacks in 10 games in 08 but...

In 2007 he registered 8 sacks in 14 games, in 2006 he got 11 sacks in 16 games and in 2005 he had 16 sacks in 16 games, starting 12 of them.

He claims he's healthy again. I think for a future 3rd he would be well worth it and with him Schobel, Maybin, and Kelsay/Denney we could have an incredible rotation which could squeeze the most production out of all of them. Any thoughts?

New Orleans Newspaper: Pisa wants big contract

poz — Mon, 18 May 2009 20:30:34 -0000

New Orleans Newspaper: Pisa wants big contract

Q: Jeff, do you think the Saints have any interest in recently released linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa, who led the Rams in tackles in four of his six seasons? Doug Freret, Destin, Fla.

A: Doug, that's a loaded question. I think the Saints would definitely have interest in Tinoisamoa - at the right price. Unfortunately, I've heard the veteran linebacker is looking for "starter money," which probably would preclude him from joining the Saints. Remember, every time a player is released you have to think about what that player was earning in his old job and what salary expectations he will take with him to the open market. The NFL is governed by the salary cap. General managers are always thinking about the bottom line when they consider adding a player to the roster. Tinoisamoa might be attractive to the Saints but only at the right price. From what I've heard, his price right now is out of the Saints' market. And rightfully so. Why would the Saints throw a big contract at Tinoisamoa, when they already have Dan Morgan and Scott Shanle on the roster? If they think Morgan is ready to contribute then there's really no reason to sign another weak-side linebacker.

Rotoworld: Maybin good for 5-6 sacks

poz — Mon, 18 May 2009 19:35:39 -0000

Rotoworld: Maybin good for 5-6 sacks

Also ranks him as the third most productive IDP rookie defensive lineman

Rosenhaus Hints DT Darnell Dockett on market?

poz — Mon, 11 May 2009 03:39:10 -0000

Rosenhaus Hints DT Darnell Dockett on market?

Rosenhaus twittered that he thinks his client, DT Darnell Dockett, can be traded from the Cardinals for a 1st round pick. While that is far from a declaration that trades for the in his prime, lower end elite DT will be entertained, it must mean something that his agent would say such a thing, right?

Two questions for all of you.

1.) What, if anything, do you make of this twitter by Rosenhaus?

2.) Would you want the Bills to make a trade to get Dockett in Buffalo and at what cost?