Let me preface the following argument by providing the following assumptions:

1. WARP/salary provides an optimized method to look at a player's performance as a function of their salary, and thus can be acceptably utilized to compare players to determine their per dollar productivity.

2. Darren Collison had a WARP of 4.1 in 2010. CP3 had a WARP of 26 in 2009 and a WARP of 10 in 2010, but we will throw out the 2010 number as an anomaly due to the large number of missed games, and compare his 2009 WARP to Collison's 2010 WARP. Based on these numbers, and the fact that CP3 commands just over 10 times the salary of Collison, Collison has a narrowly larger WARP to salary ratio than CP3.

3. Although Collison's WARP/Salary is higher than Paul's, it is likely that his career WARP/Salary will drop as he gets more money in his later contracts, because it is unlikely that he will be able to reproduce Paul's HOF numbers.

Conclusion: Although it may seem more fiscally responsible to keep DC and trade CP3, it will actually be the wrong decision fiscally in the long run, because of assumption 3 indicating that as collison's salary approaches CP3, his WARP/salary ratio will decrease. This conclusion passes the eye test, as it is fairly clear that CP will fetch a greater revenue to the team in both the short and long run because of his superstardom than any collection of role players or replacement star players that would be obtained in a salary dump.

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First of all, Delta Airlines is amazing. I'm currently flying over the Rockies on my way to Phoenix to celebrate Thanksgiving, and found out that my airplane is WIFI equipped, and feel compelled to pen some thoughts about this season while high in the sky.

After the jump, the major issue I want to address is the controversy surrounding McMillan's handling of Oden's minutes to avoid foul trouble, and then touch on Dante Cunningham vs Travis Outlaw, and maybe some other minor issues if I can think of any.

 

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Oregon won on a nailbiter. Cal terminated its opponent with extreme prejudice (again). UCLA beat Tennessee (excellent win for the Pac 10), Washington ended its losing streak to Idaho. And other crud happened as well, but the game ball for this week's pac 10 football goes to the 19 year old with balls of steel, Matt Barkley from USC who snatched victory from the still beating hearts of 100000+ die hard Buckeye fans who sat stunned in amazement after he led the Trojans on an almost miraculous 90 yard drive to pay dirt. Looks like the reign of terror isn't quite over for the Trojans, if today is anything to go by. I can't wait to see the fireworks in Eugene and Berkeley in a few weeks. Pac 10 should at least be interesting this season, as Cal looks as strong as it has ever been.

Update (1:46):

To make this fair to all pac ten teams, I will put up final scores for every game involving those schools-

Wake Forest 24 - Stanford 17

Washington 42 - Idaho 23

California 59 - Eastern Wash 7

Hawaii 38 - Wash. St. 20

UCLA 19 - Tennessee 15

Oregon State 23 - UNLV 21

Arizona 34 - Northern Ariz. 17

Oregon 38 - Purdue 36

USC 18 - Ohio St. 15 

 

 

Tribute to randomness:

Why do rhinos have horns?

OKC adds James Harden and BJ Mullens, which rounds out a starting five that would feature Westbrook at the 1, Harden at 2, Durant and Green at 3/4 and prolly Mullens at 5. If nothing else, that is a team that can win some games. They are probably not at a contending level yet, but if Harden develops into a quasi B-Roy type of guy as he has been projected to become, it would be interesting to see whether he and durant will coexist. Don't know if Mullens sticks, so that will be interesting to see as well.

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Since the San Antonio Spurs made the phrase "Big 3" part of the NBA lexicon, front office philosophy has seemed to overtly shift towards constructing NBA teams centered around 3 all-star level players and surrounding them with role players. We saw this occur most recently with Boston and it's "Big 3", now even our own Portland Trail Blazers have started marketing its own Big 3. I realize that there have already been a number of columns and articles devoted to this shift in philosophy over the past 2-3 years, and that is not the focus of this post. Rather, I would like to take a look back at examples of the old guard, the dynamic duo which has gone the way of the dodo  as far as the NBA is concerned. After the jump is a list of the most prolific duos to play in the NBA. A caveat, my list of duos is set within the context of the last 20 years. I realize that there were amazing duos in the 70's and 80's, but those decades were before my time.

Poll

Most prolific duo of all time?

69%

Jordan/Pippen

92 votes

6%

Kobe/Shaq

8 votes

9%

Stockton/Malone

12 votes

6%

Drexler/Olajuwon

8 votes

4%

Glove/Kemp

6 votes

5%

Other (please specify below)

7 votes

133 votes | Poll has closed

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First, let me preface this post by stating that I am a member of the Greg Oden fanclub. I have an Oden 52 hat, wear it to games along with my Rudy Jersey, and ooh and ahh when Oden performs a vicious dunk. However, I will not be disappointed or offended if he fails to produce like Dwight Howard, and believe that there is a strong chance that he won't ever do so on the current incarnation of this team. I have two reasons for this: 1. our style of low post offense and 2. Greg's inherent unselfishness.

1: There seem to be 3 ways that our bigs get points in our half court sets, the pick and pop, the pick and roll, and isolation.

Pick and pop: Aldridge (and Outlaw if you want to call him a big) are the only guys capable of executing the pick and pop right now. Oden doesn't have a jumper and Przybilla has never had a jumper. Frankly, I would be stoked if Oden took one of those 18 footers from the top of the key when the bigs leave him open and drained it, but I'm fairly certain that Oden will never shoot the ball as well as Aldridge does. That creates a vicious cycle because since Oden can't shoot it, we won't run the pick and pop with him, and if we don't pick and pop with him, he won't ever learn to make the shot. But lets table this technique for now, as we don't really want Oden to become Memo Okur.

 

Pick and Roll: We have seen this executed beautifully before by our guards, and we have also seen it executed poorly. Even now Oden's length is enough for him to cover large distances quickly, which when combined with his massive size makes him a difficult cover for slow, large bigs or fast, small bigs. However we just don't execute this play that much, and I suspect that it has to do with the successful nature of the first technique and the next one:

 

Isolation: By now we've seen Yao's effectiveness when he's isolated in the low post, and really he is probably the best center besides Duncan (who's a tweener)
at playing isolation post offense. Aldridge is still developing his abilities, but he's got a few moves of his own such as the running hook, the fade away, the up and under, and so on. And really, he's the most effective big at playing isolation offense, and I am fairly certain that he is unequivocally the guy you would choose right now to play iso when compared to Greg. Here is the vicious cycle again: since Aldridge is better at the iso, we would prefer to throw it into him over Oden, which means Oden doesn't get a chance to improve his post moves (he'll just have to wait till summer).

Considering these things, I find it difficult to imagine that Oden would ever become the blazers featured low post scorer, especially if it came at the expense of LMA. That is not to say that Oden won't get touches, but there's only so many post entry passes that a team can do and still get the perimeter players their shots. So it will be interesting to see how that dynamic shakes out between these two.

 

So...my second point was about Oden's general unselfishness, but I've made this post too long already so I'm going to make this one short and sweet.

I have seen more games this year than any other year, and the one thing that intrigued me about Oden's off ball play was how he boxed out even at the expense of the actual rebound. While he is a phenomenal rebounder, I think he makes more of a concerted effort to box out as many guys as he can so that the wings can get at offensive and defensive boards, and he taps the ball out all the time when rebounding, leading to more of those offensive boards for the other players on the floor. LMA I think has been the biggest beneficiary of this as he gets more offensive boards as a result (I think Przybilla has the same effect as Oden in that sense). Is it possible then that Oden won't get 5-6 offensive boards a game (and therefore 5-6 putbacks), simply because the other players on the floor benefit from his box out and collect his boards?

 

On defense, I think he is being groomed to be the mobile big man as others have stated, essentially playing free safety in the post, altering shots and providing help defense, closing off lanes to the post. Right now he can't do it w/o getting fouls, but when he is fast enough to get in position, it will be interesting to see how much the defense might improve. With these thoughts in mind:the probable scarcity of touches on offense, his willingness to allow teammates to collect O boards and his potential ability to be a lock down help defender, I don't know if he will be able to collect the statistical numbers that reflect his true production on the court. But the fanboy inside me wearing that 52 hat certainly hopes so.

 

Oh by the way, sorry about the epic fail on keeping this post short.

Well I thought I was doing extremely well in my brackets yesterday as I got 14/16 right, but my Midwest bracket has gone to the dogs. I picked 24 of the remaining 32 teams correctly, and even got a couple of upsets right. Things would have been even better if the right Vikings won!

My sweet 16 selections are already screwed up but at least none of my Final 4 selections got knocked out in the first round.

 

Final impressions: I feel even more secure about my selection of Louisville to win it all. I think they are now a lock for the elite 8 as Wake Forest is gone, and barring a huge upset they should cruise. Also considering how the Pac 10 kicked a$$ and took names, I feel pretty secure about Washington beating both Uconn AND Memphis (surprisingly enough) and getting into the final 4.

 

How do you guys feel about your brackets thus far? How many teams did you correctly select in the first round?

So fast forward 10 months. Either the Fkers or the Selltiks are defending chumps (yes, chumps). LeBron hasn't been signed. DWade hasn't been signed. All the FA superstars are getting ready for their last hurrahs with their current team because the trade deadline is fast approaching and every team with an unsigned franchise cornerstone is afraid of the upcoming hot potato game and looking to sell high, maybe get some expiring contracts or young talent and rebuild/reload with something in hand rather than go back into the dregs of the lottery. The Cavs are once again favorites to win a championship in the East and are so hungry that they can taste the ?gold? plating over the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Unfortunately, LeBron refused all contract offers because he wants to test the free agent market and see if the Knicks or the Greeks or  (who knows) maybe even the Clippers will fulfill his billionaire dreams.

 

Worst case scenario: the Cavs let the trade deadline pass in a last ditch effort to win the championship, and don't get their ring. LeBron walks in the offseason, leaving Cleveland with Illgauskas' rotting corpse, a rudderless Mo Williams and 15 mil that go's straight into their owner's pocket after getting waved around aimlessly at the disinterested 2010 free agents. LeBron goes on to become the emperor of the NBA while Cleveland goes right back into the gutter, waiting for the next once in a generation player to come along.

Best Case scenario: The Cavs win, LeBron signs a contract right after kissing the O'Brien trophy and Clevelanders riot in the streets as they finally get that elusive championship AND they get LeBron back, saying he will be a Ohioan for life.

 

What does Danny Ferry do? Does he make a decisive move at the trade deadline, deciding to get what he can for LeBron and rebuild his franchise around whatever he gets and future lottery picks? Or does he wait and hope for best case scenario?

So Darius Miles is likely to go back on our books. So the blazers lose flexibility about their options for this summer. So what? We have our RLEC this year, next year we get an untradeable DMEC, worth nine mill. If we look at only the contracted players in the 10 summer, we have GO, Batum, Rudy, Bayless, and Martell. That's five players that cost less than 20 mil together. We would still have enough money to extend Roy and Aldridge and have money left over to sign one of the superstars possibly coming out in '10. The real beauty of the salary structure is that Pritchard will have the freedom (if he wants to) to pull a Danny Ainge and radically restructure the core of the franchise if he feels that the current team doesn't have what it takes to get to the promised land. I say we hold our assets, whether Miles comes off the books or not, and cash in our chips for the high stakes poker game, rather than sell the farm this summer.

So in the spirit of winter traffic delays, we have an extremely late junk drawer up today. My non-blazers discussion contribution of the day:

The Detroit Lions are now 1 game away from "perfect imperfection". It seems extremely ironic that a year after the New England Patriots put up a perfect regular season, Detroit is about to do the exact opposite. So with this thought in mind, I give you the requisite junk drawer poll:

Poll

What is easier to do? Go 16-0, or 0-16?

26%

Patriots are forever alone at the top of the (regular season) mountain.

15 votes

28%

The Lions' futility will never be matched (should they come through next week).

16 votes

45%

The greatness of one is equal to the failure of the other.

26 votes

57 votes | Poll has closed

First thing, folks.

Why is College Football more popular than the NBA? Every day, every hour it's BCS, BCS, BCS on national media. It seems like Notre Dame not sucking as much as normal is bigger news than NBA basketball, and I just don't like it. While I am as big a fan of the Trojans as anybody and appreciate the national attention, the ongoing love affair with college football is frankly becoming nauseating to me. Colt McCoy burps and its national news. I am admittedly a bigger basketball fan now than I am football, so my view may be biased, but the comparable lack of attention in national media to the NBA (other than Kobe/Shaq) seems obscene to me.

This leads to my second issue, which is MMA/UFC. I heard Canzano go off about MMA a few weeks back, and I heard whisperings about how there was a big fight recently (yesterday). I am not a big fan of stuff like that, (never was), but I thought it would be interesting to get a gauge of what kind of interest the blazer fanatic average sports fan has in this kind of stuff. With that said, please answer the following poll:

Poll

How interested are you in UFC/MMA?

22%

It's Lesnar, not Lesner, you retard!!

8 votes

51%

I thought Brock was a pokemon trainer?

18 votes

25%

Did you see Comcast's newest tv option? You can get CSNNW underground, straight to your nuclear shelter! Did I mention that I am a blazer fan?

9 votes

35 votes | Poll has closed

The starting point guard issue has been covered pretty thoroughly in several past fanposts, but I thought there might be one deciding factor that hasn't been discussed as much. Everybody seems to think that how well both players play with Brandon will make or break their starting opportunities, and nobody has addressed the issue of how they play with Oden. Oden arguably isn't going to be a dominating offensive force from day 1, but just as Chris Paul makes a significant chunk of bread with alleyoop lobs to Tyson Chandler, it may be that the guy that meshes with Oden first will be the starting point guard for this team. Whether it is more important to mesh with Roy or with Oden from an offensive standpoint is debatable at this point, but what cannot be ignored is the fact that Blake has been noted to have already started a cameraderie with Oden, and I certainly haven't heard anything about Bayless doing the same. So while Bayless may complement Roy better than Blake, it is possible that Blake maintains the starting role if he works well with Oden.

2 points:

First: some love for Rudy

I'll be honest, I was really excited when I heard that Calderon was out of the game, because that almost guaranteed that we'd see some combination of Rudy+another Spanish SG. Lo and behold, Rudy came into the game in the 2nd q playing (at some point) alongside Navarro, which was the perfect opportunity to see him shoulder part of the pg duties with Navarro. This was really the moment in the game that made me start salivating. Wouldn't you, considering that Rudy played the way he did against Team USA with Navarro as his backcourt mate? Switch Navarro with Roy and decrease the opponent's defensive intensity by a factor of 10, and the sky is the limit for Portland's backcourt dominance of the NBA. Also those 3 NBA 3's didn't hurt either.

2nd: Taking the asterisk out of K*be

I don't know if the Kobe we saw yesterday is the Kobe we will see for the rest of his career, even in the NBA. When he hit that backbreaking three against Rudy which gave him a 4pt play AND kicked Rudy out of the game, I was simultaneously thrilled and devastated (as any patriotic but laker-hating blazer fan would understand). However, from just that game, I can no no longer hate Kobe Bryant as a player. The guy is not Michael Jordan, and will never be, but he put the Olympic team on its back in the 4th quarter along with Dwayne Wade, and his tenacity and clutch play is impressive, although heartbreaking as a Blazer fan. I had no idea how to react when watching Nate hugging Kobe after the game, in fact i broke down into almost hysterical laughter. There seems a subtle, but yet powerfully tangible  change in the NBA from yesterday to today. Blazer fans can finally put the nightmares of Shaq to rest, as his career is slowly dying, and his reputation in tatters. And the K@be that beat us in 2000 isn't the Kobe that won a gold medal yesterday. I may be putting the cart before the horse here, but the L@kers don't frighten me at all anymore (and that's not just because of Rudy), and that means that I can't bring myself to hate them. You love and hate players/teams that you respect as threatening, and although they're good, I just can't see them dominating the NBA in the next 5 years, especially with the blazers. LeBron may be the best candidate there is to hate/respect in the NBA now, especially if he ever gets a supporting cast wherever he ends up. I just don't feel like Kobe is under the umbrella of the L@kers anymore, so much as he has enveloped them under his world-wide stardom, culminating with this Olympic Gold. Thus I see these current WCF champs as Kobe and the L@kers, rather than just the L@kers. He's almost a separate entity from them now, and that as much as anything allows me to appreciate his momentary triumph with that gamebreaking 3 over Fernandez, and the shushing motion he made afterwards. Kobe the Olympian is a player I can appreciate.

 

*Additional note*

First of all, thanks for those who read this post, (especially those that rec'd it). I realize that this issue is a controversial topic for many of us as blazer fans, which is why I wanted to post it in the first place. That being said, I was getting ready to go to work when I published this post, so I didn't get a chance to expand on what I thought was the most important issue about the gold medal game. I don't know about you, but I feel that there are some games that have moments that have significance beyond the play, beyond the game, and have unseen and yet far-reaching consequences on the future. I believe that Kobe's shot over Fernandez is one such play. In my mind, that play signals the passing of the guard in the NBA. Shaq, SSOL, the geriatric spurs, Pistons as perennial ECF losers, KG, Ginobili the these are all iconic parts that made up the NBA's first decade in this millenium. Shaq and Duncan dominated the 2000's in terms of winning championships, but Kobe was really a true megastar. With the 2008-2009 season getting ready to start in a couple of months, chronologically the 2000's aren't really over, but there is a palpable sense of change, with the curtain falling on the game's older stars and rising for the new. One thing remains the same though. As in the 2000 WCF, for the next couple of years, the fate of the Blazers seem inextricably linked to Kobe. 

With Olympic fervor reaching a crescendo in this past week and continuing into next, with more tuneup games in Macao and Beijing, I though I'd devote this fanpost to an interesting poll proposed by the Bucks' Brewhoop community on SB Nation. Anyway, the Brewhoop thread had a long discussion about the import of Olympic basketball on fans in different countries, and fans here in the US. For us, it seems that local team success takes precedence over national olympic success, and I thought I'd put it to a vote here.

Poll

What resonates more with you as a Blazer fan?

4%

Team USA winning gold

5 votes

95%

Portland winning the NBA Finals

108 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

No, this is not a reference to the SNL skit. Anyway, I was wondering if anybody knows what happened with the Spain/Argentina game? I've been watching that thread, but it seemed like the comments stopped before the game was finished broadcasting. If anybody knows what happened and the relevant Rudy stats, I'd be much obliged.

Hmm, some more words eh? Oh ok, Rafael Nadal won another championship, this one on hard court. Ho Hum...

Here's my problem. I went to 4 games at the Garden last year, and was planning on buying something like the pick 6 this year so that I can get a chance to watch the really hyped games coming up this season. Unfortunately, I can't afford to buy season tix this year because the ER job I am working goes on shifts, and the schedule is set up on a monthly basis. What that means in a nutshell is that I can't hammer out a schedule through next April so that I can set aside time to go to whatever blazers games I want. Thus, I would prefer the flexibility associated with buying a small set of tickets and choosing the games I want to go to, rather than getting a rigid package and finding out that I can't trade out shifts. Anyway, I am concerned that with the rapid rate of season ticket sales, the blazers will be sold out completely before the season begins. Is this a legitimate concern? I haven't bought tix on a regular basis, so I don't know what the situation is.

Anyway, the possibility of going to the Garden is one option for watching the games. My other problem is with trying to find out how to lock up a subscription for tv coverage. As a dish network subscriber, Comcast has me by the balls, and until they get a deal worked out with satellite providers, I won't have a shot at watching any games on TV outside of national coverage on TNT or KGW (I don't know if TNT gets any blazers games) or through NBA TV. From what I hear though, NBA TV is only a legitimate option for road games, because Comcast blacks out the home games. Can anyone shed some more light on this issue of tv coverage? Any idea of what games are available for a dish subscriber, or an NBA TV subscriber...etc.

http://www.nba.com//summerleague2008/summer_league_selection_poll.html

Ok, I posted this like 4 minutes after the first post about this topic, so I'm changing it. Read the post before by Wilbjammin and then check this out if you want to answer the poll. I'll leave the nba.com poll up if you want to check the source. I was honestly shocked by how lopsided the poll is. Bayless was getting 34% of the votes last time I checked, followed distantly by K Love at 18-19%.

Poll

If Bayless is invited to play on the Select team, would you want him to play? (I don't know if he would have the choice of declining without having a real good reason, but let's say he does).

90%

Of course. This would be an excellent measuring stick to determine how he plays with and against tier 1/2 talent in the league

97 votes

0%

Thanks, but no thanks. While it would be an honor to get involved with Team USA, we shouldn't risk any more Blazer injuries.

1 votes

8%

Doesn't matter, Rudy will destroy all comers anyway.

9 votes

107 votes | Poll has closed

After watching Roger Federer win 5 consecutive wimbledon titles, it was clear that he was the favorite to win again in England this year. But in a magnificent championship match, Rafael Nadal continued Spain's championship run from the Eurocup by bringing the Wimbledon trophy to Spain. Hats off to Nadal: a guy barely a month older than I am at the age of 22 beating the current tennis "god" is no small feat, not to mention the fact that he's won 4 french open titles in a row as well...

On another note, I wonder if the championships Spain has been collecting this year will translate into some Olympic bling....maybe a certain countryman who will don the scarlet and black this upcoming year will will Spain to medaling? Here's to hoping that Rudy caps off a stellar career in Spain with individual domination of his counterpart in Team USA...K*be Bryant. Congratulations Spain, now I can only hope that Andy Roddick has a miraculous return to form and wins in New York this year, it's about time an American wins the US Open once again.

I was just reading the sactown thread that was a response to our thread "How the other side lives". I had a nice laugh when otis29 suggested that it's about time Chuck Norris jokes are converted to Kevin Pritchard jokes. Then I thought a thread about this would be hilarious for a little while, and so I have started this fanpost for people to publish some funny chuck norris style jokes about KP. Here's the first one, from Blazerholic...kind of paraphrased When KP calls, he doesn't leave messages. He leaves warnings.

So, let me preface this fanpost by acknowledging that I'm a Bedger, and am kind of getting antsy about what my team's gm (KP) is going to do. So, I decided to jump around other teams blogs and see what they were up to, and had an interesting thought about how easy your team's selection would have been if D'Antoni was the coach.

Here's my reasoning.

D'Antoni loves to run and play quick strike offense.

He loved the Matrix (Marion).

Beasley is supposed to be a Matrix clone, and had the best statistical college season in history (which is why Pat Riley is having trouble deciding what to do in Miami.

Chicago has a pg and a sg (Heinrich/Gordon) that would be ideal for transition play, but have always been kind of weak in frontcourt.

Ergo: The entire nation would have known 4 weeks before the draft that D'Antoni was going hard after Beasley, and then the rest of the draft would have been WAY clearer. SSOL (Seven seconds or less) would have arrived in Chicago, led by Kirk Heinrich and Michael Beasley.

Wow, D'Antoni is a dumba$$.