Hot Stove Adage #32 – The mystery team always wins.

The first time the Detroit Tigers were legitimately mentioned as contenders for the services of Prince Fielder was Tuesday. The same Tuesday that saw the Detroit Tigers ink Fielder to a nine year, $214 million dollar deal. The move sent shockwaves through the baseball world reverberating across both leagues as well as the fantasy landscape. Fielder joins Albert Pujols as the second elite power hitter to change leagues this offseason completely shifting the dynamics of AL and NL only leagues for the 2012 season.

The move was in response to the season-ending ACL injury suffered by Victor Martinez that we learned about a week ago. That robbed the Tigers of their primary DH and their best left-handed hitter (Martinez is a switch hitter, but 72% of his at-bats came from the left side) as he hit .337/.387/.476 in 424 plate appearances as a lefty. In the immediate aftermath of the injury announcement, the Tigers were believed to look for a one year veteran option that included names like Carlos Pena, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Raul Ibanez and Vladimir Guerrero. Instead they went for the biggest splash possible.

So what does Fielder bring to the Motor City?

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In my experience, a lot of fantasy players who play in AL or NL only leagues are multiple league players so they usually have a mixed league or two on their docket as well. In other words, they are familiar with the entire player pool which can be a help when it comes to free agents switching leagues or interleague trades that bring talent over. One potential pitfall is that axioms that hold true for mixed leagues are applied to the single leagues blindly when they may not apply.

For example if a position is thought to be shallow for a mixed league, someone might also assume that it is shallow in their AL or NL only league as well without checking to ensure that is indeed the case. I have seen that exact issue pop up with regards to third base. While shortstop remains the thinnest position on the diamond, third base isn’t exactly brimming with talent when it comes to 13+ team mixed leagues, especially at the high end. The 2012 outlook at the position isn’t as grim at 2011, but it is still a challenge and falls short of other positions on the diamond.

However, AL only leaguers look at a very different third base pool when you consider that single leagues are often smaller in terms of managers thus requiring less depth for everyone to get their fill. The upper tier is still only three deep: Jose Bautista, Evan Longoria and Adrian Beltre, but the next two tiers worth of players is about eight deep and rife with upside. There is risk throughout, but at least there are options who have floors that won’t kill you even if they are injured for a large portion of the season. The NL is light on just about everything: elite talent, upside next tier options and high floor options.

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If there is one common thread in fantasy baseball that is likely to surface in every draft or auction regardless of format, it is that one or more manager in the league will have an insatiable desire to acquire the next big thing. This desire often leads to the overvaluing of the year’s rookie crop. Every year there is a group of rookies thought to be the next big things ready to make an impact and invariably the group of rookies who actually made a significant impact is different.

There is often overlap, but a large portion of the contributing group consists of guys who nobody saw coming. Predicting baseball players year to year is tough enough when you know they are going to play, but when the biggest question is if they will be playing, that prognostication gets exponentially more difficult.

Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman had a clear path to his job making it easier to assess his value, while his teammate and eventual Rookie of the Year winner Craig Kimbrel was on even footing with Jonny Venters for the closer’s job when the season started making it virtually impossible to properly value either player. Then there is Brandon Beachy, also of the Braves. Few, if any, had him winning the fifth spot in the rotation over Mike Minor and even if they did, they certainly didn’t have him posting a 10.7 K/9 in 142 innings with a 7-3 record, 3.68 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. That’s just one team’s rookie crop.

This year’s golden prize is perhaps the best prospect ever, Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper. He was rated first or second (to Mike Trout) on every list last year and he is almost universally regarded as a can’t-miss prospect set to be the centerpiece of the Nationals lineup for years to come with Stephen Strasburg playing his superstar counterpart on the mound. There are some rumblings this winter about Harper possibly doing enough in Spring Training to break camp with the Nationals which has of course skyrocketed his value in early mock drafts (coincidentally he is just one slot behind Trout at #214 in mixed leagues).

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You didn’t really think the Yankees were going to leave their rotation as CC & Co. for a second straight year, did you? Sure, reinforcements are likely on the way in the form of farmhands Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances, but they aren’t ready for major contributions in 2012 and leaving a known issue untouched just isn't the Yankee Way. Meanwhile they lost one of their best non-CC assets in Bartolo Colon which is a sentence I never expected to be writing. On Friday the Yankees pulled off a pair of huge moves to address their pitching woes by trading for Michael Pineda and signing free agent Hiroki Kuroda.

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As we moved deeper into January, it appears as though Ryan Braun’s pending 50-game suspension for a banned substance thought to be a masking agent (as opposed to an outright performance enhancer) will stick robbing the National League of two staple first rounders (including Albert Pujols) while a third could soon leave too if Prince Fielder bolts to the American League. This has left NL-Only leagues facing a first round rife with uncertainty and filled with potential candidates for their top pick.

Early mocks show an influx of pitchers in the first round, a frightening proposition for the risk averse even with some of the bona fide aces being taken. Even in a single league, I’m reticent to take a starting pitcher with my first pick unless it is someone like Pedro Martinez circa 1997-2003 or Randy Johnson after his brilliant run with Houston in 1998 when he ran off four straight Cy Young wins with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Those two were simply heads and shoulders above their colleagues and though there was still the inherent risk tied to starting pitchers, they were good enough to take the risk.

Roy Halladay is close, even at 35 years old, but some early NL-Only mock drafts are showing as many as five starting pitchers in the first round meaning it would be pretty hard for any single pitcher to be as far above the pack as Martinez and Johnson were in their day. I cannot imagine slotting nearly a half dozen pitchers in the first round, but a lot has changed so let’s handicap the field as it stands right now with Braun on the pine for 50 games and Fielder’s top suitor sitting in the American League (Texas).

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The Carlos Zambrano saga in Chicago finally came to its conclusion this week and it might have worked out much better than any reasonable Cubs fan could have hoped. After yet another meltdown that led to his being placed on the disqualified list (who even knew that existed before Big Z?), one thing was certain: Zambrano needed a fresh start. Another certainty lingered over that, though: no one was going to roll the dice on the explosive Zambrano while paying him $18 million dollars for 2012. So the Cubs worked out a deal with the Miami Marlins where they will pay $15 million of the salary in return for a legitimately viable asset in the form of starting pitcher Chris Volstad.

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It has been four whole seasons since Jake Peavy was on top of the starting pitcher world in the National League. And it has been seven seasons since he emerged as the superstar he would be for five years in San Diego. In 2007, he won his lone Cy Young Award with a 2.54 ERA and 1.06 WHIP (both league bests) in 223 innings while posting a 19-6 record. He also had the best strikeout rate in the National League for the second straight season improving from 9.6 to 9.7 K/9.

His award winning season was the third of four that saw him post an ERA under 3.00 (actually 2.88 or better to be exact) and he would do the same the following year with a 2.85 ERA in 173 innings despite a bit of skills degradation. However just a year and a half removed from his Cy Young Award, he was traded to the Chicago White Sox in a blockbuster deadline deal on July 31^st, 2009. He was actually hurt at the time and didn’t make his White Sox debut until September 19^th.

He was sharp in three outings to close out the season, but struggled a bit in his full season debut in 2010 as his strikeout rate dipped below 8.6 for the first time since 2003 at 7.8 and the shift from PetCo Park and the National League to US Cellular Park and the American League took its toll as best evidenced by his 1.1 HR/9, also his worst since 2003. His 4.63 ERA in just 107 innings stuck out like a sore thumb on his record. Yet the skills, while diminished as compared to his career, were still strong and as such his FIP was 4.01.

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Starting pitching remains fantasy baseball’s most confounding element on several levels and will likely remain so for some time, but one certainty are the unexpected breakouts. That, of course, is the primary reason that the landscape is so confounding in the first place. Every year a host of pitchers turn into viable assets seemingly out of nowhere. Sometimes the raw skills are there, but other times they simply appear out of nowhere.

The trick is deciding what to do with them following year. Does their breakout hold any merit or are they likely to slink back from whence they came? Today, we will look at a pair of guys who emerged in 2011 and decide how they should following for 2012.

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Of the several reasons that Atlanta Braves starter Jair Jurrjens is being rumored as a trade candidate this offseason, one is the simple fact that the team has seven capable arms for five spots. Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson are the guarantees while Jurrjens battles a young wave of talent that includes Brandon Beachy, Julio Teheran, Mike Minor and Randall Delgado for the remaining three slots. Jurrjens is all but traded, it is just a matter of where and it likely won’t be finalized until a few other dominoes fall including, but not limited to Gio Gonzalez either being traded from Oakland or pulled off the block completely.

So that leaves the four youngsters, the eldest of whom is Beachy at 24, to battle it out with their high upside, but limited experience. Beachy did far more than anyone could have possibly imagined when given a shot last year tossing 142 innings with a 3.68 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Most impressive were his 10.7 and 2.9 strikeout and walk rates. Barring an unforeseen injury, he seems like a lock with Hudson and Hanson.

Let‘s take a look at the remaining three starters and attempt to handicap the field heading into 2012. All three are rich in talent which will draw the eye of many NL-Only fantasy leaguers, but barring a pair of trades (or one massive trade in which the Braves trade two quality starters), one of these three will be on the outside looking in to start the season.

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The Albert Pujols signing in Los Angeles last week was a worthy diversion from my series on Undervalued Assets in the American League (here are parts one and two), but today we finish up the trio by looking at Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Eric Thames. He entered the season as Toronto’s 12^th-ranked prospect according to Baseball America on the heels of a huge season at AA-New Hampshire during the 2010 season.

He posted a line of .288/.370/.526 with 27 home runs and 104 runs batted in across 573 plate appearances showcasing his potential as an above average power bat who can draw a fair number of walks (50 BB, 9% walk rate) while still being somewhat prone to the punchout (121 K, 21% strikeout rate). Thanks to another Travis Snider false start (.184/.276/.264 in 99 plate appearances before being sent down), Thames was called up in mid-May.

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For as long as I have been playing this game, catcher has been among the most scarce positions on the diamond and I am fairly certain it will remain that way forever. This shouldn’t come as any surprise as good hitting catchers will always be somewhat rare because their primary job to defensively focused. The National League pool for 2012 sets up to be especially thin highlighted by three stars (Brian McCann, Miguel Montero and Buster Posey) followed by a group of similarly valued names rounding out the top 10-12.

If you asked a group of 10 people to rank those seven to nine names, you would probably get 10 different rankings. For me, there are two names to target in that middle tier, neither of whom are particularly expensive despite breaking out a bit in 2011.

Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals – I loved the Matt Capps-for-Ramos trade back when the Nationals did it in 2010 and it is already starting to pay dividends as Ramos enjoyed a fine rookie campaign (.267/.334/.445 with 15 home runs) in 113 games played. He should get even more of the playing time in 2012.

He definitely got the most out of his power given a scant 36% flyball rate so I wouldn’t necessarily bet on a big increase there, but we could see some additional batting average added to his profile. An improved lineup in Washington combined with more opportunities should increase Ramos’s output in the runs scored and driven in categories as well.

Look for a .284 average with 13 home runs, 61 runs batted in and 56 runs scored.

Nick Hundley, San Diego Padres – The start of a breakout season was curtailed then slowed by injury. After posting a .274/.347/.452 April with three home runs and 12 runs batted in, Hundley played just 21 games from May through July and labored to a .159/.247/.174 line before coming back healthy and sprinting to the finish with a .367/.404/.656 line including six home runs and 14 runs batted in.

PetCo Park doesn’t faze him in the least, in fact he does his best work there (.818 home OPS; .657 road OPS). Health is the final hurdle to a complete breakout that, though his runs scored and driven in totals will always be depressed as a Padre. At 28 years old with no more than 85 games played in a season, he will likely be overlooked on draft day. But catchers pop late all the time and Hundley has shown his potential in spurts.

Look for a .261 average with 17 home runs, 58 runs batted in and 51 runs scored.

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Another name I like late is Ramon Hernandez, who was signed by the Colorado Rockies. I don’t like him as much as these other two because he has to compete with Wilin Rosario for playing time, but he can still put up very nice numbers. Consider his work in 91 games last year: .282/.341/.446 with 12 home runs and 36 runs batted in. He goes from a friendly home ballpark to the friendliest of home ballparks in Coors Field.

Let's also remember that Rosario is just 22 years old and skipped AAA en route to the majors last year. He would hardly be the first catcher to struggle at a young age. Remember the hype that Matt Wieters joined the league with and he only started being a major asset last year, his third in the bigs. Rosario isn't quite the prospect that Wieters is, either, so don't be surprised if he doesn't immediately dominate the league. Hernandez should be a nice endgame play, especially in leagues with two catchers required.

Baseball’s Hot Stove League represents a special kind of joy/agony for single league players in the fantasy landscape. After identifying the top free agents, those who play in AL- or NL-Only take special interest in the landing spot of those players as it directly correlates to the depth or dearth of their league’s early round talent pool. The American League landed the prize of the 2011 offseason last week as Albert Pujols signed with the Los Angeles Angels much to the delight of those atop their league’s 2012 draft (assuming they use inverse order of standings and already know their draft slot for next spring).

Pujols also gives the American League a fourth superstar first baseman (with Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Teixeira) and if early mocks are any indication, will take his place atop the entire draft just ahead of Cabrera and Jose Bautista. Since I can’t really see him going any lower than behind one or both of those two, his inclusion into the American League pool at the very least pushes everyone currently listed third and lower down a spot. That pushes Felix Hernandez from the first round (assuming 10 teams) leaving Justin Verlander as the only first round starting pitcher in the American League.

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Over the 2011 season, it became quite clear that the Minnesota Twins front office and Kevin Slowey weren’t terribly fond of one another. The crux of the matter was his unwillingness to move to the bullpen this year since he (rightly) believed he deserved a rotation spot over others getting their shot every fifth day (looking at you, Nick Blackburn). Slowey has long showed promise as a starter though his skills continually outpaced results (career: 4.24 xFIP, 4.66 ERA).

He is a control artist (career 1.4 BB/9) with a major flyball tilt (career 48%) and the ability to miss enough bats to be viable (career 6.7 K/9). Homeruns plagued him yearly and ended up as a major reason why his elite strikeout-to-walk rates and neutral BABIP and LOB% rates only once yielded an ERA below 4.00 (3.99 in 2008).

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Last week in this space we looked at the merits of Scott Sizemore, who broke out a bit after a trade to Oakland resulted in consistent playing time. He is a middle tier American League third basemen, but I think there is some solid value there given the dearth at that position.

Of the 66 votes cast in the poll, he (9) came in behind both Mike Moustakas (36) and Edwin Encarnacion (18) while Danny Valencia picked up the remaining three. I would lean toward Sizemore over Moustakas and Encarnacion, but I don’t have serious objections with someone going a different way and I fully expected Moustakas to win the vote because of his potential and blue chip status as a prospect in recent years.

Today we look at the second of three undervalued assets in the American League and we happen to have another former Detroit Tiger on tap in Casper Wells.

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Coming off of perhaps his worst season as a pro in his lone year with the Oakland Athletics, outfielder David DeJesus has signed a two year, $10 million dollar deal with the Chicago Cubs including a team option in 2014 for another $6.5 million dollars or a $1.5 million dollar buyout. Obviously the Cubs believe his down year was an aberration and felt confident enough to bring the 32-year old outfielder in at just a slight discount compared to his 2011 salary ($6 million).

On the heels of a good, but injury-shortened final season with the Kansas City Royals (91 games played), DeJesus hit .240/.323/.376 in 131 games while playing quality defense almost exclusively in right field (8 gms in CF). His underwhelming 60 runs scored and 46 driven in totals were almost equal to his 2010 totals despite 40 extra games played. Those totals suffered not just because of his down season but also because of the inept offense in Oakland that finished 12^th in the American League in runs.

What about 2012?

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Everyone is familiar with the fantasy adage: "you can’t win your league in the first couple of rounds, but you sure can lose it."  And even the latter portion is unlikely barring major flameouts likely caused by injury or an unpredictable collapse like that of Adam Dunn.  Otherwise, an early round pick that plays all season but underperforms against expectations (think Matt Kemp in 2010 or Jayson Werth this past season) doesn’t kill a team.  You can win your league or at least go a long way toward setting yourself on the championship path with savvy mid and late round drafting. 

Good fortune helps, too, especially when it comes to playing time, but identifying worthwhile investments is the first step and that is a skill honed by game watching and looking at the numbers produced from those games.  Today we will examine the first of three players from the American League who showed some signs of success in 2011, but whose season totals aren’t going to draw many eyes going into 2012 making them solid yet undervalued commodities. 

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Everyone’s favorite fantasy baseball Swiss Army Knife will have another new home in 2012, his third in as many years, as the Philadelphia Phillies dealt for Ty Wigginton over the weekend.  Wigginton consistently qualifies at multiple positions entering any season and often adds another one or two during the season depending on your league’s eligibility requirements.  He heads over to a Phillies team that could have desperately used someone with his type of flexibility in light of their rash of injuries throughout 2011 and should have plenty of at-bats for him in 2012 as well.

His appeal isn’t just the flexibility, but the fact that he is a power source at those several positions despite rarely being a full-time player.  He has averaged 20 home runs and 61 runs batted in since 2006, hitting fewer than 15 home runs just once, despite averaging just 462 at-bats and only twice registering more than 444. 

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This offseason has a spotlight firmly planted on the National League’s first baseman pool with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder standing out as two of the most prominent free agents on the market (if not the top two depending where you rank Jose Reyes).  For a while it was believed that Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto was also available via trade, but GM Walt Jocketty has recently come out against those rumors according to SI’s Jon Heyman.  Carlos Pena is also a free agent and he could take his 28 home runs back to the American League if the right deal is available.    

Regardless of Votto’s trade availability, there could be a major shift in the talent pool if one or more of the power-heavy first basemen flee to the American League.  Factor in Ryan Howard’s Achilles injury that will likely keep him out for at least the first month of the season and you now have a position depth that is in flux this winter.  Are there reinforcements capable of picking up the slack should a large power contingent shift leagues via free agency or trade? 

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Almost regardless of the number of teams, an only league that limits its pool to just the American or National League will have to tap deep into the middle reliever pool for its league members to fill out their nine or 10 man staffs (depending on league rules), even more so if there is a reserve roster.  For years now I have much preferred utilizing middle relief aces for the last two-three spots of my staff instead of rostering the Fausto Carmona/Brad Penny types who are going to blast your ERA and WHIP every fifth day. 

The profile of the elite middle relievers has risen in recent years often making them a bit more expensive than they are worth (Joaquin Benoit, Daniel Bard, Chris Sale and Rafael Soriano coming into 2011).  The true upside of utilizing these guys is the very low cost for their quality production.  This year will see Mike Adams, David Robertson, Aaron Crow and even Benoit again among the guys going for a premium in the middle relief market.  Last week I looked at the National League and today we will look at a few American League relievers who should be available for a dollar at the end of your draft while offering you comparable production to the big names in the middle relief market.

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Almost regardless of the number of teams, an only league that limits its pool to just the American or National League will have to tap deep into the middle reliever pool for its league members to fill out their nine or 10 man staffs (depending on league rules), even more so if there is a reserve roster.  For years now I have much preferred utilizing middle relief aces for the last two-three spots of my staff instead of rostering the J.A. Happ/Kevin Correia types who are going to blast your ERA every fifth day.

The profile of the elite middle relievers has risen in recent years often making them a bit more expensive than they are worth (Daniel Bard, Luke Gregerson, Joaquin Benoit coming into 2011).  The true upside of utilizing these guys is the very low cost for their quality production.  This year will see Kenley Jansen, Sergio Romo and Aroldis Chapman among the guys going for a premium in the middle relief market.  Today we will look at a few National League relievers who should be available for a dollar at the end of your draft while offering you comparable production to the big names in the middle relief market. 

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Today the Kansas City Royals acquired 28-year old (29 in about two weeks) lefty starter Jonathan Sanchez and minor leaguer Ryan Verdugo from the San Francisco Giants along for outfielder Melky Cabrera in a trade that seems to make sense on both ends from a baseball standpoint.  Cabrera had a breakout season for the Royals last year, but he was blocking 25-year old prospect Lorenzo Cain who appears ready for an opportunity after 671 plate appearances in AAA during which he hit .305 with an .852 OPS. 

In Sanchez the Royals are getting a hard-thrower who followed up his career year in 2010 with a tough season mired by control issues (5.9 BB/9) and injuries that limited him to just 101 innings pitched after increasing his workload yearly since entering the league in 2006.  Walks have always been an issue (career 4.8 BB/9) even in 2010 when he posted a 3.07 ERA (4.5 BB/9) so no one was really surprised to see him regress in 2011.  His ERA was sustained by being nearly unhittable (MLB-best 6.6 H/9) and keeping runners who did reach from scoring with a career-high and well above league average 80% LOB%. 

What does he bring to the table for AL-Only fantasy leaguers? 

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A week ago I looked at a handful of potential American League sleepers with varying degrees of merit gathered by looking at players age 27 or under who had between 150 and 250 plate appearances this year while posting a 100 OPS+ or better.  The idea being that this subset of players offers some interesting candidates who played well, albeit in a smallish sample, and thus could be in line for both more playing time and higher value because of those additional reps. 

Last year the filters yielded a mere four results in the Senior Circuit: Logan Morrison, David Freese, Chris Heisey & Lorenzo Cain.  Cain was moved in the Zack Greinke deal during the offseason, but the remaining three paid solid dividends.  Morrison sacrificed his batting average for home run power (23, after two in 287 PA in 2010) and quibbled with management which eventually led to a quick demotion, but in the end he was a very worthy low-cost investment. 

None of Freese’s postseason heroics helped your fantasy team, but his .297 average and 10 home runs worked out well for 97 games at a ridiculously weak third base. Heisey was a super-sub hitting .309 with an .829 OPS while pinch-hitting which allowed him to earn more starts as the season wore on and he ended up with 18 home runs and an unspectacular, but passable .254 batting average in 308 plate appearances. 

The filters applied often return some injured players who are either established already or known enough that they aren’t exactly sleepers (ex. Buster Posey) and thus they are weeded out.  So too are the heralded prospects who were on everyone’s radar during the season but for whatever of a number of reasons only got between the 150 and 250 at-bats required to turn up in our sample (ex. Brandon Belt --- merely a coincidence that both examples are on the Giants).  They, too, get removed and we deal with the remaining sample.

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When the Yankees brought Bartolo Colon into their 2011 camp, I will freely admit that I was firmly in the camp of the skeptics who saw little to no chance of the move resulting in anything of value either for the Yankees or especially for the fantasy community.  I lumped Colon together with Mark Prior as a sign of the very real starting rotation issues the Yankees had coming into the season. 

Then he had a nice Spring Training tossing 16 innings with a 2.25 ERA, 17 strikeouts and just one walk.  I was unmoved.  I put virtually zero stock into Spring Training numbers as they have zero predictive value for the regular season.  Spring Training numbers have minimal value for guys fighting for a spot and those returning from injury and even then the actual numbers don’t mean that much, you are really just looking for reps. 

Colon’s 16 innings were fifth-most on the team meaning they were either serious about putting him in their lineup or wasting his and their time.  Turned out to be the former and though Colon initially made the team as a reliever, he was in the rotation by April 20^th.  As many of you probably know, he went on to have a pretty amazing season all things considered.  He started off especially well pushing his ERA to a very nice 2.88 after six shutout innings in his July 2^nd start, his first in nearly month after an injury. 

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You needn’t be a rocket scientist to determine who were the best and worst players of the 2011 season.  Hopefully you had a few of the former on your team and stayed far away from the latter.  Something that isn’t so readily evident are the potential gems found within the large middle group separating the two extremes.  It will be from that group that we find next year’s Ian Kennedy and Jordan Zimmermann types, guys with the skills who take a significant step forward and become middle-to-late round gems (which often the key to a championship fantasy season). 

One such player could New York Mets starter Jonathon Niese.  The 24-year old southpaw started slowly with a 5.87 ERA in his first four starts bookending his season with an even worse run of four starts in August resulting in a 7.15 ERA before an intercostal strain ended his season early.  However, the tasty middle of that crap sandwich yielded a 10-5 record, 3.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 3.4 K/BB in 112 innings pitched. 

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A favored pastime of many fantasy baseball managers is to mine the player pool for sleepers often by digging into the minor league systems looking for the next big thing.  In what I would call the "Internet Age" of fantasy baseball, highly touted rookies seem to be the most overvalued commodity in the game.  The desire to have the next big thing is a main reason for this as it not only helps toward the goal of winning but also makes the manager feel like he is the smartest one in the room.  Of course, these same guys will tout their pick that finally hits while ignoring the five or six duds they have overpaid for in previous years. 

I am not averse to minor leaguers as a rule, but I think the price is often far too high for the risk involved.  In light of that, I have taken an alternative route to finding some hidden value.  As with any method in this vein, it is far from bulletproof, but rather just adds another angle to look at when building a draft plan.  Essentially the method looks at young hitters who got a taste of the majors and performed well, but didn’t play enough to ensure that they are on everybody’s radar. 

The filters aren’t hard and fast, but the ones I have chosen look at players 27 and under who had between 150-250 plate appearances with an OPS+ of 100 or better.  From the initial results you have to weed out the established players who had injury-shortened seasons and the remaining results give you the players to investigate further and see if there is anything worth buying. 

Last year’s American League qualifiers included Matt Joyce, Mitch Moreland, Jed Lowrie and Will Rhymes.  Joyce was the gem of the bunch while Moreland offered some nice AL-Only value, too.  Lowrie started off on fire, but injuries cut him down and limited him to just 88 games.  Rhymes would’ve been likely been seen as the runt of the bunch last offseason as his value was tied entirely to a .304 batting average and few expected him to enter Spring Training with the second base job anyway due to the presence of Scott Sizemore. 

Carlos Santana also made the list of qualifiers, but his profile was high enough that he wasn’t really sneaking up on anyone even with his devastating season-ending injury that looked worse than it actually ended up being as he went on to have a quality 2011 apart from his .239 batting average. 

This year’s list returns seven qualifiers ranging in age from 21 to 27.  Two candidates get lopped off immediately for profiles as high as Santana’s or higher: Desmond Jennings and Brett Lawrie.  Both seemed to meet or exceed their hype machines when they finally hit the majors as Jennings put up a 10 HR/20 SB season in just 287 plate appearances while Lawrie was raking to the tune of a 152 OPS+ (thanks to 21 extra-base hits out of 44 total hits) with nine home runs and seven stolen bases before injury struck again and ended his season on September 20^th. 

That leaves us with these five players to contemplate for 2012 (ranked in order of 2012 value as I see it):

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First base is known for its depth on the fantasy landscape.  It is a position rife with foundational players who are often taken in the early rounds of drafts and given top dollar at auctions.  The National League pool runs deeper right now with the fates of Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and even Joey Votto unknown as first two enter free agency and trade rumors swirl around the third. 

Movement to the AL by any of those three would definitely balance things out a bit more, but as it stands right now there are four stud first basemen in the American League: Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, Paul Konerko & Mark Teixeira.  Eric Hosmer is a borderline first tier guy, but with such a limited sample, it is too soon to automatically put him there.  Let’s give him the second tier all to himself.  (Note that Mike Napoli, Carlos Santana and Michael Cuddyer all qualify at first base, but also qualify at other positions that make them far more valuable.)

What about the next tier?  If you spend your early picks securing non-first basemen, how do you approach the next level of the power position? While the depth of the position might encourage some to wait, you should know what you are dealing with if you choose to go that route.  In its current state, here is what you are looking at if you pass on the top five first basemen in the AL:

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For eight years now, the San Diego Padres have played 81 games in spacious PetCo Park much to the chagrin of most hitters, but to the delight of virtually all pitchers.  That park, combined with a modicum of skill, has turned virtually anyone slated to be in their five man rotation into a valuable NL-Only league asset, even more so if you can make changes daily which would allow you to take advantage of those who are truly only a product of the park. 

To wit who, apart from Mat Latos, in the Padres rotation was drawing fantasy-related interest from the masses?  Tim Stauffer made some sleeper lists and Aaron Harang some bounce back lists, but neither was being seen as a foundational piece to a winning rotation.  Yet they and the rest of the southern California cohorts became viable assets and it wasn’t even Latos who topped the list as the best of the bunch (that distinction goes to Cory Luebke). 

Luebke and Latos should be mixed league assets regardless of league type, but how do the remaining arms stack up as NL-Only commodities?  As we enter the offseason, there are six guys for five spots with Stauffer, Harang, Clayton Richard and Dustin Moseley vying for the final three spots.  For our purposes, Stauffer and Harang are of interest as neither Richard nor Moseley should be counted on for more than a desperate spot start here and there.  Relying on sub-5.0 K/9 pitchers is never a good idea and both were at 4.8 K/9 this season. 

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I am running out of fresh ways to discuss season-ending injuries as we have seen so many pop up in the last few weeks and while their impact isn’t massive with less than a week left, they still need to be mentioned.  The latest is Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Brett Lawrie, who suffered a fractured a middle finger that will end his season thanks to a month-plus recovery time.  The good news is that it was a displaced fracture so it won’t require surgery meaning he should be 100% and ready to go for Spring Training in February. 

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Neither Troy Tulowitzki nor Matt Holliday have played since last Tuesday, September 13^th.  Tulow left that Tuesday contest early with a known hip issue that flared up again.  As the week progressed, it was clear he would be out for at least a few days, but at no point was his season said to be in doubt. 

On the other hand, Holliday left late in his Tuesday game with a finger injury and we learned a day later he would be out at least 4-5 more days before a weekend report suggested it was a "possible, perhaps probable" that his season was done. 

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This will sound all open mic comic one-liner-y, but it’s really not meant to: I can’t tell what’s dropping faster, NFL players or MLB players (if I really wanted to sound like an open mic comic, I’d have said I can’t tell what’s dropping faster, interest in Whitney Cummings or MLB players).  Fantasy players are watching stars exit their lineups left and right the past few weeks. 

Speaking of the NFL, with all the injuries in baseball the stretch run has been akin seeing NFL teams sit their stars in order to preserve their health for the playoffs except this is hardly an option for the baseball teams.  Among the latest casualties we have:

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