SBNation.com User Blog: pumpedupjays

Looking at the Blue Jays Infield

pumpedupjays — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 13:56:19 -0000

Continuing my foray into what Alex Anthopoulos looks for in a player - BB% and SO% - I'm delving into a look at the Blue Jays infield to get a glimpse of each players' numbers. Second Base was already looked at here to determine who should be the Blue Jays starter at the position.

First Base - Edwin Encarnacion

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2005	22	CIN	NL	234	25.6%	8.6%	3.00
2006	23	CIN	NL	467	16.7%	8.8%	1.90
2007	24	CIN	NL	560	15.4%	7.0%	2.21
2008	25	CIN	NL	582	17.5%	10.5%	1.67
2009	26	TOT	MLB	338	19.8%	11.0%	1.81
2009	26	CIN	NL	165	23.0%	14.6%	1.58
2009	26	TOR	AL	173	16.8%	7.5%	2.23
2010	27	TOR	AL	367	16.4%	7.9%	2.07
2011	28	TOR	AL	530	14.5%	8.1%	1.79
2012	29	TOR	AL	644	14.6%	13.0%	1.12
8 Yrs				3722	16.8%	9.5%	1.76
MLB Averages					17.8%	8.4%	2.12

2012 really showed how Encarnacion (or E5 as many endearingly call him) maintained his very good SO% and but made huge strides in his BB% and therefore had a career best SO/BB ratio. His OBP was a 100 points better than his batting average which always shows the mark of a good eye while his .557 SLG was far and away his best ever by a wide margin. While we may think he might not duplicate his power numbers from a year ago, his BABIP was only .266 - well below the league average of between .290 to .310.

Shortstop - Jose Reyes

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2003	20	NYM	NL	292	12.3%	4.5%	2.77
2004	21	NYM	NL	229	13.5%	2.2%	6.20
2005	22	NYM	NL	733	10.6%	3.7%	2.89
2006	23	NYM	NL	703	11.5%	7.5%	1.53
2007	24	NYM	NL	765	10.2%	10.1%	1.01
2008	25	NYM	NL	*763*	10.8%	8.7%	1.24
2009	26	NYM	NL	166	11.5%	10.8%	1.06
2010	27	NYM	NL	603	10.5%	5.1%	2.03
2011	28	NYM	NL	586	7.0%	7.3%	0.95
2012	29	MIA	NL	716	7.8%	8.8%	0.89
10 Yrs				5556	10.2%	7.1%	1.43
MLB Averages					17.6%	8.4%	2.09

Wow, take out those first three years and look at those SO/BB ratios including the past two years - under 1.0!!! If that isn't enough to start you drooling, I dunno what is. Plus when Reyes gets on-base, he swipes bags successfully at a career clip of 74.9% making him an awfully dangerous weapon in the lead-off spot.

Third Base - Brett Lawrie

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2011	21	TOR	AL	171	18.1%	9.4%	1.94
2012	22	TOR	AL	536	16.0%	6.2%	2.61
2 Yrs				707	16.6%	6.9%	2.39
MLB Averages					19.2%	8.1%	2.39

Yes Brett Lawrie had quite the 150 AB's to start his young career and expectations soared on him. He wasn't quite the superstar we expected him to be last year but he's a young kid and maybe we can chalk it up to a sophomore slump. Regardless I think fans are looking for him to improve upon his .324 OBP and .405 SLG from last year because he really dropped off in his power production and in his ability to earn a walk. I don't think it's too far fetched to wish for a 20/20 season from Brett, but I'm sure if we were to ask him he'll have his sights on numbers far beyond that.
Catcher - J.P. Arencibia

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2010	24	TOR	AL	37	29.7%	5.4%	5.50
2011	25	TOR	AL	486	27.4%	7.4%	3.69
2012	26	TOR	AL	372	29.0%	4.8%	6.00
3 Yrs				895	28.2%	6.3%	4.50
MLB Averages					19.0%	8.2%	2.31

In his two+ years thus far, J.P. has shown a way above average ability to strikeout including quite the propensity to not take a walk as shown by his .275 career OBP. Subsequently his SO/BB ratio sucks. Still, what makes him attractive as a catcher is his ability to hit the long ball and that much has been consistent as indicative by a SLG of .438 and .435 the past two years.

DH - Adam Lind

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2006	22	TOR	AL	65	18.5%	7.7%	2.40
2007	23	TOR	AL	311	20.9%	5.1%	4.06
2008	24	TOR	AL	349	16.9%	4.6%	3.69
2009	25	TOR	AL	654	16.8%	8.9%	1.90
2010	26	TOR	AL	613	23.5%	6.2%	3.79
2011	27	TOR	AL	542	19.7%	5.9%	3.34
2012	28	TOR	AL	353	17.3%	8.2%	2.10
7 Yrs				2887	19.3%	6.7%	2.88
MLB Averages					18.0%	8.5%	2.13

Just look at Adam's stats last year and compare them to his break-out year in 2009. Yes, his plate appearances were cut in half due to being sent down for a month and then due to injury, but these metrics are nearly the same as when he hit .305/.370/.562 in 2009! That's tremendously encouraging! Maybe Lind can have another good year and actually earn his option of $7M in 2014.

First Base - Edwin Encarnacion

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2005	22	CIN	NL	234	25.6%	8.6%	3.00
2006	23	CIN	NL	467	16.7%	8.8%	1.90
2007	24	CIN	NL	560	15.4%	7.0%	2.21
2008	25	CIN	NL	582	17.5%	10.5%	1.67
2009	26	TOT	MLB	338	19.8%	11.0%	1.81
2009	26	CIN	NL	165	23.0%	14.6%	1.58
2009	26	TOR	AL	173	16.8%	7.5%	2.23
2010	27	TOR	AL	367	16.4%	7.9%	2.07
2011	28	TOR	AL	530	14.5%	8.1%	1.79
2012	29	TOR	AL	644	14.6%	13.0%	1.12
8 Yrs				3722	16.8%	9.5%	1.76
MLB Averages					17.8%	8.4%	2.12

Shortstop - Jose Reyes

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2003	20	NYM	NL	292	12.3%	4.5%	2.77
2004	21	NYM	NL	229	13.5%	2.2%	6.20
2005	22	NYM	NL	733	10.6%	3.7%	2.89
2006	23	NYM	NL	703	11.5%	7.5%	1.53
2007	24	NYM	NL	765	10.2%	10.1%	1.01
2008	25	NYM	NL	*763*	10.8%	8.7%	1.24
2009	26	NYM	NL	166	11.5%	10.8%	1.06
2010	27	NYM	NL	603	10.5%	5.1%	2.03
2011	28	NYM	NL	586	7.0%	7.3%	0.95
2012	29	MIA	NL	716	7.8%	8.8%	0.89
10 Yrs				5556	10.2%	7.1%	1.43
MLB Averages					17.6%	8.4%	2.09

Third Base - Brett Lawrie

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2011	21	TOR	AL	171	18.1%	9.4%	1.94
2012	22	TOR	AL	536	16.0%	6.2%	2.61
2 Yrs				707	16.6%	6.9%	2.39
MLB Averages					19.2%	8.1%	2.39

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2010	24	TOR	AL	37	29.7%	5.4%	5.50
2011	25	TOR	AL	486	27.4%	7.4%	3.69
2012	26	TOR	AL	372	29.0%	4.8%	6.00
3 Yrs				895	28.2%	6.3%	4.50
MLB Averages					19.0%	8.2%	2.31

DH - Adam Lind

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2006	22	TOR	AL	65	18.5%	7.7%	2.40
2007	23	TOR	AL	311	20.9%	5.1%	4.06
2008	24	TOR	AL	349	16.9%	4.6%	3.69
2009	25	TOR	AL	654	16.8%	8.9%	1.90
2010	26	TOR	AL	613	23.5%	6.2%	3.79
2011	27	TOR	AL	542	19.7%	5.9%	3.34
2012	28	TOR	AL	353	17.3%	8.2%	2.10
7 Yrs				2887	19.3%	6.7%	2.88
MLB Averages					18.0%	8.5%	2.13

Are you pumped about the Jays?

pumpedupjays — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 00:14:15 -0000

Here's a song/video I created to celebrate the impending 2013 season for our Toronto Blue Jays!

Looking at the Blue Jays Outfield

pumpedupjays — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 12:02:33 -0000

Continuing on from last week's post on Anthopoulos and the top two stats he focuses on for a hitter – BB% and SO% (percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk or a strikeout), I've decided to look at the Blue Jays outfield for 2013 and how they've done in this area. Just to refresh everyone's memory, an average MLB player will produce the following: 17.7% for SO%, 8.4% for BB% and 2.10 for SO/BB. I've already covered Jose Bautista who's stats can be seen below as a refresher:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2008	27	TOT	MLB	21.5%	9.4%	2.28
2009	28	TOR	AL	21.0%	13.9%	1.52
2010	29	TOR	AL	17.0%	14.6%	1.16
2011	30	TOR	AL	17.0%	20.2%	0.84
2012	31	TOR	AL	15.8%	14.8%	1.07
9 Yrs				19.2%	13.5%	1.42

Colby Rasmus

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2009	22	STL	NL	520	18.3%	6.9%	2.64
2010	23	STL	NL	534	27.7%	11.8%	2.35
2011	24	TOT	MLB	526	22.1%	9.5%	2.32
2011	24	STL	NL	386	20.0%	11.7%	1.71
2011	24	TOR	AL	140	27.9%	3.6%	7.80
2012	25	TOR	AL	625	23.8%	7.5%	3.17
4 Yrs				2205	23.0%	8.9%	2.59

In 2012, I was pretty happy to see Colby match his career high in home runs (23) and set a new career high with 75 RBI in a season. Although I have to say it was done with a torrid June and a pretty awful rest of the year as Bluebird Banter nicely addressed here.

Looking at these metrics only, one can see that Colby's been incredibly bad as a Blue Jay compared to a Cardinal. Even before the 2011 trade to Toronto, he was having a better year than in 2010 where he posted a career best .859 OPS although that was with an exceptionally high .354 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In-Play where league average is .290 to .310). If Colby's BABIP even returns to his 4-year average of .287, he should have his most successful season as a Blue Jay yet. In fact, Bill James is projecting a .237/.312/.427 (BA/OBP/SLG) with a 9.4 BB% and 23.5 SO% in 2013. The batting average is still low, but the rest of it would be an improvement upon his time as a Blue Jay thus far. I'd certainly take that!

Melky Cabrera

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2005	20	NYY	AL	19	10.5%	0.0%
2006	21	NYY	AL	524	11.3%	10.7%	1.05
2007	22	NYY	AL	612	11.1%	7.0%	1.58
2008	23	NYY	AL	453	12.8%	6.4%	2.00
2009	24	NYY	AL	540	10.9%	8.0%	1.37
2010	25	ATL	NL	509	12.6%	8.3%	1.52
2011	26	KCR	AL	706	13.3%	5.0%	2.69
2012	27	SFG	NL	501	12.6%	7.2%	1.75
8 Yrs				3864	12.1%	7.4%	1.64

In looking at what Melky's done, he's been a well-above average MLB hitter his entire career except for the fact that he's a bit under league average in taking a walk. What's interesting is that Melky had his highest BABIP of .379 last year, so we can't expect him to hit .346 again, but a nice .295 as Bill James projects would be great. Besides, if he shows a selective eye, makes contact and gets on-base, I'm sure Anthopoulos and the rest of the Blue Jays would be happy with his performance...especially if he scores 88 runs next year as Bill James also forecasts.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2008	27	TOT	MLB	21.5%	9.4%	2.28
2009	28	TOR	AL	21.0%	13.9%	1.52
2010	29	TOR	AL	17.0%	14.6%	1.16
2011	30	TOR	AL	17.0%	20.2%	0.84
2012	31	TOR	AL	15.8%	14.8%	1.07
9 Yrs				19.2%	13.5%	1.42

Colby Rasmus

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2009	22	STL	NL	520	18.3%	6.9%	2.64
2010	23	STL	NL	534	27.7%	11.8%	2.35
2011	24	TOT	MLB	526	22.1%	9.5%	2.32
2011	24	STL	NL	386	20.0%	11.7%	1.71
2011	24	TOR	AL	140	27.9%	3.6%	7.80
2012	25	TOR	AL	625	23.8%	7.5%	3.17
4 Yrs				2205	23.0%	8.9%	2.59

Melky Cabrera

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2005	20	NYY	AL	19	10.5%	0.0%
2006	21	NYY	AL	524	11.3%	10.7%	1.05
2007	22	NYY	AL	612	11.1%	7.0%	1.58
2008	23	NYY	AL	453	12.8%	6.4%	2.00
2009	24	NYY	AL	540	10.9%	8.0%	1.37
2010	25	ATL	NL	509	12.6%	8.3%	1.52
2011	26	KCR	AL	706	13.3%	5.0%	2.69
2012	27	SFG	NL	501	12.6%	7.2%	1.75
8 Yrs				3864	12.1%	7.4%	1.64

Who Should Really Play Second Base for the Jays?

pumpedupjays — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 02:25:37 -0000

With spring training just around the corner, there is a battle brewing for the Jays' second base job between Emilio Bonifacio and Macier Izturis. Let's try to sort this thing out by taking a look at recent comments made by GM Alex Anthopoulos.

Just last month, Anthopoulos was interviewed by Peter Mansbridge where he stated in response to a question the top two stats he focuses on for a hitter more than anything else - BB% and SO% (percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk or a strikeout).

My expected response from him was to naturally say On-Base Percentage, or On-Base+Slugging Percentage, which obviously is a good measure of how much a guy gets on-base either via a hit or walk, and the amount of extra-base power a player has, but he didn't. This intrigued me a bit, and when he said what he did, it made me think, huh, that actually makes sense. AA explained that a good BB% shows a selective eye and a good SO% shows hand-eye coordination. He wants players on his team that have those qualities.

What exactly though is a good percentage of walks and strikeouts for a batter? A nifty search of Baseball-Reference.com showed that MLB player averages for these metrics are the following: 17.7% for SO%, 8.4% for BB% and 2.10 for SO/BB. I included SO/BB here obviously because it provides a good ratio for these stats. So an average hitter in the big leagues strikes out just over double the number of times he walks.

Let's put this into context and take a look at Jose Bautista's stats, one of the best hitters in the game, in the table below.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2008	27	TOT	MLB	21.5%	9.4%	2.28
2009	28	TOR	AL	21.0%	13.9%	1.52
2010	29	TOR	AL	17.0%	14.6%	1.16
2011	30	TOR	AL	17.0%	20.2%	0.84
2012	31	TOR	AL	15.8%	14.8%	1.07
9 Yrs				19.2%	13.5%	1.42

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com showing Jose Bautista's stats as a Blue Jay except in 2008 where he had most of his at-bats as a Pirate. View Original Table

Notice the marked improvement in each category. 2011 seems to be the outlier since his BB% was way about his career average of 13.5% and his SO/BB ratio of 0.84 was insane. Clearly Jose Bautista is one of the league's best hitters since his BB% and SO/BB numbers are far above average.

Now concerning the title of this post, let's look at Emilio Bonifacio's respective ratios:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2008	23	TOT	NL	24.7%	7.5%	3.29
2009	24	FLA	NL	18.7%	6.7%	2.79
2010	25	FLA	NL	20.9%	8.5%	2.47
2011	26	FLA	NL	20.1%	9.2%	2.19
2012	27	MIA	NL	19.0%	9.1%	2.08
6 Yrs				20.0%	8.3%	2.40

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

As you can see, Bonifacio meets the league average for taking a walk, but has a higher SO% and subsequently a higher SO/BB ratio as well.

Now let's have a peak at his competition in Blue Jays camp, Macier Izturis' ratios:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2004	23	MON	NL	16.5%	8.3%	2.00
2005	24	LAA	AL	10.0%	8.1%	1.24
2006	25	LAA	AL	8.8%	9.5%	0.92
2007	26	LAA	AL	10.4%	8.8%	1.18
2008	27	LAA	AL	8.4%	8.1%	1.04
2009	28	LAA	AL	9.4%	8.0%	1.17
2010	29	LAA	AL	11.3%	8.8%	1.29
2011	30	LAA	AL	13.2%	6.7%	1.97
2012	31	LAA	AL	11.9%	7.8%	1.52
9 Yrs				10.7%	8.2%	1.32

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Izturis also meets the league average in taking a walk, but look at his SO% and SO/BB ratio...undoubtedly we have a winner!! So if Anthopoulos puts his money where his mouth is, Izturis is unmistakably the starter at second base for the Jays. Sure other things like defence and footwork will factor into the decision of who wins the job in spring training, but when AA gave Izturis a 3-year contract, evidently he had him in mind to man the right side of the infield in Toronto.

If it was up to me, I wouldn't care if each player split all the games at second base and filled in at other spots on the diamond. As long as they both play admirably accepting their role however which way it plays out. The beauty in both players is that they're clearly capably of playing all over the diamond which adds to the flexibility that John Gibbons has to his disposal.

Let's put this into context and take a look at Jose Bautista's stats, one of the best hitters in the game, in the table below.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2008	27	TOT	MLB	21.5%	9.4%	2.28
2009	28	TOR	AL	21.0%	13.9%	1.52
2010	29	TOR	AL	17.0%	14.6%	1.16
2011	30	TOR	AL	17.0%	20.2%	0.84
2012	31	TOR	AL	15.8%	14.8%	1.07
9 Yrs				19.2%	13.5%	1.42

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com showing Jose Bautista's stats as a Blue Jay except in 2008 where he had most of his at-bats as a Pirate. View Original Table

Now concerning the title of this post, let's look at Emilio Bonifacio's respective ratios:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2008	23	TOT	NL	24.7%	7.5%	3.29
2009	24	FLA	NL	18.7%	6.7%	2.79
2010	25	FLA	NL	20.9%	8.5%	2.47
2011	26	FLA	NL	20.1%	9.2%	2.19
2012	27	MIA	NL	19.0%	9.1%	2.08
6 Yrs				20.0%	8.3%	2.40

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

As you can see, Bonifacio meets the league average for taking a walk, but has a higher SO% and subsequently a higher SO/BB ratio as well.

Now let's have a peak at his competition in Blue Jays camp, Macier Izturis' ratios:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	SO%	BB%	SO/BB
2004	23	MON	NL	16.5%	8.3%	2.00
2005	24	LAA	AL	10.0%	8.1%	1.24
2006	25	LAA	AL	8.8%	9.5%	0.92
2007	26	LAA	AL	10.4%	8.8%	1.18
2008	27	LAA	AL	8.4%	8.1%	1.04
2009	28	LAA	AL	9.4%	8.0%	1.17
2010	29	LAA	AL	11.3%	8.8%	1.29
2011	30	LAA	AL	13.2%	6.7%	1.97
2012	31	LAA	AL	11.9%	7.8%	1.52
9 Yrs				10.7%	8.2%	1.32

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table