The Cardinals’ minor league system has generated a considerable amount of helium this year. Prior to the season we were a below average system with Shelby Miller and some intriguing names. This season has improved the stock of our top guys and added a solid amount of depth. The top two on this list are top 25 prospects. The next six all have legitimate claims to top 100 lists. The rest would have been much higher on the list last year than they are now. 

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So there's one slot left. Jordan Swagerty and Mark Hamilton are too close to call, so they'll go head to head. One gets the slot, the other gets to be the "just missed" guy. Andiamo!

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The nineteenth best prospect on the St. Louis Cardinals is Nick Longmire. He was our fifth round draft pick last year and hit the ground running by going on an absolute tear in his first month of professional baseball. He's also a package of tools with power rating the highest and the potential to stick in center. His swing is a bit funky for me and I worry about strikeouts at the next level but his brief stretch of professional success is more than enough to recommend him at this stage.

I wasn't at all expecting Pete Kozma supporters out of VEB, even if this list went to 40 prospects, but lo and behold, they came out in the last vote. Pete still isn't too old for his level (not especially young anymore, either) and still has shortstop quality range and arm. Aside from Kozma, the position is filled by a collection of guys who are still only on the periphery of my radar. Ryan Jackson is probably the next guy on the list but he's probably Brendan Ryan in an ideal world. Donovan Solano does not appear to be a big leaguer. Ronny Gil (formerly Grabriel Hernandez) could be an interesting name to watch in the coming seasons. It's depressing how weak shortstop is throughout the organization. Francisco Lindor, anyone?

Mark Hamilton, Swagerty and Gast all got votes, they all stay. Kozma gets a shot and Matt Adams probably has the most impressive power numbers in the organization right now, so he gets the last spot on the ballot. 

This is it. This is the last one. Wasn't so bad, was it? Took us long enough that Spring Training could actually alter our opinions but we made it. Tons of interesting yet flawed prospects left and only one slot.

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Tommy Pham barely beats out Adron Chambers for the #17 spot which makes the latter #18. Neither of these outfielders are particularly polished but both quite athletic. But while Adron Chambers seems more broadly athletic (not necessarily in the baseball sense), Tommy Pham seems like he could still tap into some power. 

Anyone could grab these last few spots. Guys like Pham and Descalso that had been steadily gathering enough votes to put them over the top are gone. Now, it's a bunch of wild cards and Longmire is the only one who'll keep his spot on the ballot from last time. Jordan Swagerty and Cody Stanley will get another chance. Two guys that I think should have a shot at some votes before this thing is over: Mark Hamilton and John Gast. Hamilton is blocked, obviously, but probably doesn't have much use for the minor leagues anymore. He's put up lines .307/.421/.521 and .308/.375/.531 in the last couple years at the AA/AAA levels and has been crushing the ball this spring. He's also 26 and has been in the system since before we won our last world series, toiling fruitlessly in an Albert Pujols universe. It's hard being a first base prospect on a Cardinals affiliate but it's quite possible that we could suddenly be looking at Hamilton as our primary 1B candidate at the major league level. 

John Gast is a left-handed(!!) pitcher who was drafted last year and promptly went 6-0 (yes, I know, pitching wins) with a 1.54 ERA, a K/9 rate of 9.26 and a BB/9 rate of 2.06. He was well regarded as a prep pitcher but ended up in college due to Tommy John surgery. He had some underwhelming seasons for Florida State but appears to be recovering nicely and showing why he was once considered a top draft prospect. He also had a good-looking appearance this Spring Training. 

I hate to limit the candidates to five seeing as there are so many prospects that have a case. So I'll list all the other prospects that have had a spot on the ballot so far, as well as some other prospects that merit write-in consideration. You'll have to do the research yourself.

Audry Perez
Trevor Rosenthal
Brandon Dickson
Daniel Bibona
Aaron Luna
Matt Adams
Daryl Jones
Niko Vasquez
Bryan Martinez
David Kopp
Blake King
Steven Hill

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It came down to the three outfielders and Nick Longmire was the odd one out. Adron Chambers and Tommy Pham showdown. Unfortunately, there's less and less free scouting info as we get down to this portion of the list. But here's what I got.

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Descalso has been patiently waiting his turn since Community Prospect Ranking #9 and has been accumulating not-quite-enough votes pretty much every round. VEB's hesitance was because there's just barely enough there. He plays second base but barely (still more than Schumacker), hits well enough for the position but barely and is better than most of the other major league options we are considering but barely. 

Only three left on this list and right on time, as FanPosts (sometimes imitating these posts) are slowly starting to flow in again. Not all of the remaining candidates will get a spot on the top 20. The trio of outfielders Adron Chambers, Tommy Pham and Nick Longmire will all get their shot this round, as will Daniel Bibona, who I talked about last post. Newcomer is non-drafted free agent Brandon Dickson who won minor league pitcher of the year as well as a MiLB.com fan vote for top AAA starter. These accolades would seem to suggest that he deserves better than fringe top 20 in a weak system. The concern is that, despite a hugely successful 2010, his stuff won't play in the majors. Not to stack the cards too much against him, here's what his manager had to say about him:

What really impressed me about him was his grit, his determination. He had some starts where things weren’t going his way early in the ballgame and he kept after it and never lost his focus. He ended up getting a win in a couple of those games.

So he's gritty and also 26 years old. Still, this far into the system, it could be time to confront your allergy to grit (maybe take some Advair?) and recognize a strong performance and proximity to the major leagues. Vote away!

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I've already said one or two things about Tony Cruz but there isn't much separating him from Bryan Anderson to me save for the one level difference. Both of them are offensive-minded prospects but neither is at risk of getting moved off of the position (Cruz's defense grades a touch higher, I think). They are both 24 but Cruz has generally been one level below Anderson. Both had down years in 2009 and bounceback years in 2010. In 2011, they will be on the same level for the first time in Memphis and sharing playing time.

As close as many of these prospects are, VEB decided that Cruz should be 15th; no further than two ranks lower than his Memphis teammate. One last note about Anderson: PECOTA's optimistic projection makes him about a 1.5 WAR player over 218 PAs assuming non-disastrous defense. Seems like a major leaguer to me.

I promised VolsnCards5 that I would try out Trevor Rosenthal this round and I am nothing if not a guy who hates getting called out for breaking promises. As if to vindicate Volsn's crusade, John Sickels threw Rosenthal on his sleepers list, along with Deryk Hooker, for which I will take (probably undeserved) credit and John Gast. Besides that, we retain Descalso and Pham, bringing in Longmire again. For the last slot, I debated between Aaron Luna and Daniel Bibona. The positionally challenged Luna has been mostly panned by scouting reports but when's the last time you saw his stats? I know, right? .245/.394/.451 is his minor league line and .262/.415/.455 was his line last year. But before you declare him the successor to Schu's vague 2B/OF slot on the team, consider that much of that OBP comes from what seems to be a talent for getting hit by a pitch.

Bibona, on the other hand, is a lefty in a lefty-starved system, who put up some interesting numbers in an exceedingly small sample size of 33 innings at Quad Cities last year. We liked him enough to draft him twice, in 2009 and 2010. This time around, Luna will get his shot because I always like an opportunity to ask the Craig Biggio Question and because FreeRedbird asked first. Happy Voting!

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Remember how these prospect rankings started when we had really not a whole lot to talk about and wanted something to pass the time prior to Spring Training? Funny how they've turned into a way to distract ourselves from the horrible terribleness that continues to plague our team. But, then again, I consider prospecting to be therapeutic for dealing with major league problems. There's always a next generation of ballplayers. So if I can pull you away from your empty liquor bottles (or whatever your drug of choice might be) might I turn your attention to Adam Reifer?

It's always difficult to know where a surefire reliever should rank in the mix of things. They've often got the most interesting stuff and have a strong ERA and K rate to show for it. Most of the pitchers with starting potential are on the list or don't have any much in the way of pro ball experience (or success). But this system is full of relievers and, while Eduardo Sanchez is ahead of the pack, there are a lot of fireballers behind him that can get lost in the mix. Adam Reifer's K rate was respectable enough at 8.5 and his ERA was a very good 2.95 but his biggest accomplishment in 2010 was cutting his walk rate almost in half. He's only had a cup of tea at the AAA level, but he's polished enough (and no spring chicken going into his age 25 season) to merit a September call-up if things go well. VEB decided that #14 was as far as an arm of his quality could fall. 

Less turnover this time around as Cruz, Descalso and Pham remain on the list. Longmire will get switched for Adron Chambers and Jordan Swagerty will get his shot as well. 

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With seven votes, Bryan Anderson gets the lucky #13, let's hope it brings him a real shot on the big club in 2011. He may be suffering from prospect fatigue but not bad enough to keep VEB from coming to its first consensus pick in awhile. He doesn't have any outstanding tools but he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses either (to my eye, his defense is only a limitation in an organization where virtuosos like Yadier Molina and Mike Matheny have become the standard).

Elsewhere on the ballot, there is heavy turnover. No one wanted to bite on Cody Stanley, who is like Anderson but younger and Adron Chambers' limited upside received mixed reviews. Stanley is probably going away for awhile, unless someone asks, and replaced by Adam Reifer who received multiple write-in votes and whose punnable name is ideal for our bullpen. Chambers gets cycled out for toolsier outfielder Tommy Pham, who had something like a (admittedly BABIP fueled) breakout year in Springfield. Another toolsy outfielder, Nick Longmire, returns to the ballot and Descalso and Cruz both retain their slots.

Another thing, my plan for the final list was to include quotes mined from the comments here underneath every prospect. Sound like a good idea, everyone? Hopefully, we end up with something pretty for posterity's sake and all these fanposts will have been worth something. So keep voting and keep commenting!

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Another close run-off between two pitchers with similar ceilings. We're starting to run into the zone where pitchers might not project as starters, so #3 upside is the highest that remains. VEB understandably took the pitcher with pro experience, giving Hooker the number #12 spot over Blair by one vote. There are still lots of righty prospects left but most look like hard-throwing relievers at this point.

Now that RHP hegemony is over, we can move onto C hegemony. There are several catchers still on the board and a few "catcher"s, too. Yadier Molina's extended occupation of the position at the major league level has left a glut of young backstops waiting at the AAA level. Of this group, Bryan Anderson probably feels the most like a character in an existentialist play (hey, DanUp, I've got an idea for a post) and Steve Hill is very likely to get moved off the position. The third catcher,Tony Cruz is the same age as Anderson but probably feels more like a prospect because he hasn't been knocking on the door as long and had a solid showing in the AFL. His defense is his calling card though he has shown signs of being able to hit (at least in the hitter-friendly Texas League).

Both Anderson and Cruz are on the ballot this time; Hill will wait due to his age and likelihood to move off of the position. We'll also add Cruz's AFL teammate Adron Chambers and recent college catching draft pick Cody Stanley, while retaining Daniel Descalso.

GO. VOTE.

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Once again, the Cardinals system becomes a battle of the righties. Go figure. This time, it's recent college draft pick Seth Blair up against high school pick Deryk Hooker from the '07 draft. 

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I hate to leave the margin this close and am tempted to just call it a tie. During the first run, Oscar Taveras had the one vote edge, whereas Joe Kelly won by a single vote in the run-off. It seems likely a symptom of how difficult it becomes to differentiate in quality this far down the list (however different the prospects might be). Perhaps there's also a bit of post-Daryl-Jones skepticism that keeps VEB from buying into the toolsy outfielders in full force.

Either way, I wouldn't be surprised if we see more run-offs from here on in. However, ties are lame and run-off results are final. So Kelly is prospect number nine and Taveras number ten (call them 9a and 9b if you must).

Here's Blair, Descalso, Anderson, Hooker and I'll try Audry Perez (it's about time to start getting some catchers in there) to start off the latter half of our list. Happy voting!

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Apologies for the lateness of this fanpost. Occasionally, I spend my Friday nights on something other than VEB. It won't happen again. I'll make it up to you with a scouting report filled run-off to finish the first half of our illustrious list. We had Oscar Taveras with six votes to Joe Kelly's five and various votes going all over the place. Are the days of easy consensus at an end? 

There was strong consensus on one thing, however. You guys want to do twenty prospects, which is good enough to cover most of the relevant names. We can do thirty next year when we start earlier and also when all our prospects have breakout years and Cardinals occupy half of the top 100 prospects in baseball. 

Without further ado, I give you Cardinals prospects numbers nine and ten (but you'll have to decide which is which).

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I said this in a couple of these threads but let me reiterate. All that's required to be on this list is rookie status. Which makes Allen Craig the eighth best prospect on the Cardinals. Craig is probably the best bat in the system right now and will more than likely spend the whole year with the big club. I don't really even need to say anything about him. You all know.

We've still yet to select a prospect that wasn't a 3B or a right-handed pitcher (I'm listing Craig as a 3B because that seems to be the organization's current intention). However, as we get past the first ten, we are likely to see the voting open up a considerable amount. There are some exciting to semi-exciting low level catchers like  Audry Perez and Cody Stanley. as well as higher level prospects like Tony Cruz, Bryan Anderson and Steven Hill. Toolsy outfielders like Oscar Taveras, Nick Longmire and Tommy Pham remain along with a few higher floor types like Adron Chambers and Dan Descalso. And, of course, plenty more right-handed pitchers where that came from including Joe Kelly, Seth Blair, Jordan Swagerty, David Kopp and Adam Reifer. Added to the candidates this round will be Dan Descalso. We'll also try Longmire in place of Deryk Hooker.

So don't be shy: start writing in more of the candidates you feel deserve to receive votes. In the meantime, there is another matter of business that we can't avoid anymore. We have to decide how long this is gonna be. Included is a poll in increments of five, going up to thirty (which seems a fairly good limit, seeing as the names start to get unrecognizable after that).

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Interesting.

After running neck and neck in ranking #6, Lance Lynn absolutely dominated in the run-off. Eduardo Sanchez actually finished with fewer votes than before. It seems that VEB took a hard look at the relative value of a starter compared to a reliever. Perhaps we were also encouraged by the ~2 MPH gain in Lynn's fastball.

Lance Lynn is now the Cardinals number six prospect with seventeen votes, and Eduardo Sanchez is the number seven prospect with six. That makes five out of our seven top prospects right-handed pitchers. Think we'll draft some lefties in 2011? 

Anyway, I've got an early morning thing tomorrow so I'm going to cut this one short. Replacing the outgoing candidates are Seth Blair and my own entry, Deryk Hooker. 

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This is the first time our vote has been too close to call, with Lance Lynn earning ten votes to Eduardo Sanchez's nine. So we'll have our first run-off wherein the winner will receive the 6th slot and the loser will be 7th.

For your information and edification,  scouting info on both after the jump.

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Upside right-handed pretty much defines our system at the moment and Tyrell Jenkins is the epitome of undeveloped potential. He has no plus offerings at this point and is only just now choosing baseball as his athletic focus. But damnit if he doesn't look like a good pitcher should look. Tall and athletic with the makings of some good mechanics, he should add a few MPH to his fastball which already sits in the 92-93 range. Barring unforeseen jumps in his development, he'll have to spend a lot of times in the low minors, so the odds of injury or ineffectiveness are very high. But for VEB, the 1-2 starter upside was too much to pass up at the #5 slot with fourteen votes in his favor compared to Eduardo Sanchez's eight and Lance Lynn's three. 

I wasn't expecting this ranking to be the source of controversy but I hope the poll that I did will allow us to move past it. Sorry CodyG about your list idea, which is a pretty good one but it would a. Limit us to a top 10 and b. reduces the amount of total votes. I think this is the best way for each individual slot to get the most consideration and discussion relative to the other rankings. I would have included it if you had mentioned it earlier but I was hoping to close the book on that issue rather than start over.

You all decided to keep the things as they are. So I will. But, at the same time, I'll try and load these posts with more content and other nutritious bits so they don't seem quite so spam-like.

I won't post a poll now but the next thing housekeeping thing I'd like to decide is how many long this list should be, so post your thoughts along with your votes below.

Joe Kelly is the newcomer replacing Jenkins and we'll try Allen Craig again instead of Seth Blair, who still gets no love.

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Here at VEB, we seem to be Matt Carpenter's main supporters. Age and lack of tools are common knocks, which means that the community seems to really buy into the hitting polish and likelihood to contribute in the near future. I must say I agree. So little Carp falls into the #4 slot with 16 votes, over Tyrell Jenkins' 8, Lance Lynn's 5, Eduardo Sanchez's 4 and Allen Craig's 1.

I'm glad to see a greater variety of players receiving votes as well as an uptick in discussion. Defending your selection underneath your vote is encouraged. Since Allen Craig got little support, I'll throw Seth Blair back in his place. Oscar Taveras will also enter the vote. Moocow will have to wait.

In housekeeping news, the method of these rankings has been under discussion recently as well as some entirely unfounded allegations that I have been involved in the sale of illegal prescription drugs. I will address the former issue here, if for no other reason than to distract from the latter. 

Included is a poll with the solutions I heard from the populace. I will defer to any decision you make.

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Zack Cox ran away with the third slot here with seventeen votes compared to Matt Carpenter's four and Tyrell Jenkins' two. There's a wide spectrum of opinion on him and his value is less at third than second base but I don't think this is a Brett Wallace repeat. Certainly a better prospect at number three than we had last year.

At CodyG's suggestion, Allen Craig will come into the rotation. Also, there hasn't been any support for Seth Blair yet, so I'll throw Lance Lynn in there as well.

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VEB's weakness for the mysterious Latino manifested itself once again as Carlos Martinez took number two slot with ten votes in our rankings over the far less sexy choice in Zack Cox with seven. I am beyond excited to see his fastball, which legend says can restore lifeless marriages and cure ulcers. 

Eduardo Sanchez takes his spot on the ballot. Onward and downward!

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Okay, I said that I would give these votes a full day, but since the first vote seemed so trivial that it almost didn't merit a post, I'll cut it off now. Your number one St. Louis Cardinals prospect is (obviously) Shelby Miller, a terrific pitcher and a swell guy. Let's move on.

I would like to clarify a point: you can nominate a write-in candidate without voting for him. Since no (mortal) write-in candidates were proposed, I'll just go to the sixth prospect on Sickels' list, Matt Carpenter, to replace Miller's vacated spot.

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I realize we're getting a late start to this and most lists are already out, but I figured this would be a good way to lead into Spring Training. We're Viva El Birdos and, damnit, we should have a list too. 

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That's right, we're at the point of the off-season where the lack of baseball is beginning to ache even more deeply than you remember from past off-seasons. It's gone from a sort of anxious tension in your skin to a painful throbbing, somewhere in your bone marrow or maybe in a kidney. No, you don't need a CAT scan, you need to speculate wildly about what craziness might occur in the 2011 season of Birds on Bat Baseball. Try it: loosen up your typing muscles and toss some theories at me. Then, afterwards, check your vital signs. It'll be almost like you're alive.

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Now I know that nobody here wants to give up Rasmus and I can understand that. It is obviously going to be difficult to get anything resembling fair value for an elite fielder and elite hitter playing an elite position for pennies. And I also know that people are tired of hearing trade proposals for Colby. But I think this proposal could really work out for both sides and benefit us going forward. So stay with me:

We trade:

Colby Rasmus

The Cardinals trade:

Colby Rasmus

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This is the part of the year I hate. When the season is over and we don't make the playoffs (or we're eliminated early) and it's still too early for a hot stove and all there is to do is sit and watch other teams live the dream. Personally, this is the time of year I find the most solace in prospecting. Better to look to the future than to have to reflect on the stillborn child that was this season. 

Unfortunately, this Cardinals system still isn't a good one. While I definitely like the direction that Jeff Luhnow has taken the organization in terms of drafting, international signing and player development, we're still in the early stages of recovery. There are, of course, no real elite prospects on here besides Shelby Miller and he's still far far away from the big club. This is, however, a much better look for our system than its low point at the end of 2009, when Colby Rasmus, Brett Wallace and Chris Perez were all graduated, traded or graduated then traded. Back then, the only real breakout candidate in A ball was Robert Stock.

Now in 2010, Shelby has a year of dominance under his belt, we have another good first round pick, and a whole bunch of new prospects from our most recent draft and the Dominican, ranging from intriguing to possibly elite. So, without further ado...

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Here is the place to discuss and observe as trained professionals select the finest baseball players to do their bidding. Come bow to your white-collar masters.

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