No matter how you slice it, things don't look great for the Giants' offense next year. The most optimistic outlooks project for slightly above-average run production, counting on healthy years from guys like Freddy Sanchez as well as bouncebacks from Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, and Angel Pagan. Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, and Nate Schierholtz will have to hit well in starting or platoon roles as well. If things go very wrong, it's possible we could have the same trouble scoring runs in 2012 as we did in 2011.

Outside of shortstop, which seems settled with Crawford, the biggest hole remains the outfield - outside of Melky Cabrera, there doesn't seem to be a consensus on who will be a consistent starter. Schierholtz hit well in somewhat limited playing time last year, and Belt could be given an expanded role in LF if he hits the ground running and Huff manages to hold down first. Pagan's a bit of a wild card, with obvious potential on both sides of the ball but an injury-plagued and generally ineffective 2011 campaign. And despite the essential guarantee that Cabrera will receive a starting role, it's not a given that he will actually hit.

Things brings me to the thesis: the Giants ought to take a run at J.D. Drew. According to agent Scott Boras, Drew has not retired, and will play in 2012 if it's the right fit. Looking at Drew-related rumors on MLBTR, one sees an almost complete lack of interest - a post from this Sunday is the first one to even mention him in over a month, and he's received a total of four minor notes since the end of July.

There's an obvious reason for this: Drew had a pretty bad 2011 (link to Fangraphs stats page). Injuries to his neck, fingers, and left shoulder, occasionally simultaneous, limited him to 81 games. He didn't do much in those 81 games either - a .275 wOBA is not a pretty sight for a right fielder. So that's the downside: basically Mark DeRosa, bad when he's not hurt.

But the upside here is pretty damned good. From 1999 through 2010, Drew produced two-plus wins a season, with a high of nine in 2004. So the consistency and potential for greatness is there. Over his career, he's averaged a BB/K of nearly 1, with a BB% of 14% and an ISO of .212; the power and patience have been there. He has one below-average defensive season, a -0.9 mark in 2002. He has a career .377 wOBA, Bill James predicts a .336 mark in 2012.

Ah, but things come back to the injuries, and Drew has had a few. Though he managed to play 135+ games in 2009-2010, 109 in 2008, 72 in 2005, 100 in 2003, 109 in 2001, and of course the 81 in 2011 do not paint the picture of someone who can stay healthy through a season. Entering his age-36 season, it's unlikely that will change.

Still, this guy looks like someone we should be throwing a couple million dollars at. We have a gaping hole in our outfield that we're not sure how to fix. Schierholtz is almost certainly better off the bench than starting, particularly if it pushes Justin Christian back to AAA. He seems to have no suitors, and certainly none who are willing to offer a starting role, nor does it seem his price will go down - if he doesn't get an offer he likes, he's made enough money to just retire. There is no way we can afford a Fielder-type bat, but we might be able to squeeze an extra $3M into the budget (of course, a lot of people would take that+Affeldt+Lopez and scream Beltran, again link to stats page, and they wouldn't be wrong).

I should make it clear: Drew is not a guy we ought to be counting on. We should not sign him and claim right field is fixed. This is an Aubrey Huff-type move - in fact, given position, defensive ability, and consistency and peak of play, Drew is a better bet than Huff was before 2010. We have no money, we need a hitter, and Drew is the type of player who could give you 2-4 wins for a very small commitment.

For the pro-Beltran people, I'll just leave this:

Games played (PAs) [WAR]

2009-2011:

Drew: 357 (1371) [7]

Beltran: 287 (1210) [8.5]

2010-2011

Drew: 220 (832) [2.1]

Beltran: 206 (853) [5.5]

simply to illustrate that the difference is not as large as one might imagine.

As we celebrate the anniversary of the Giants' World Series triumph (can I get an "Amen"?!) I thought it'd be interesting to see how we and other teams have been acquiring that championship talent. In particular, I'm talking about the All-Star, MVP, Cy Young type players - every playoff team needs adequate role players, but I think one would be hard pressed to find any contender that doesn't have at least one marquee talent - a 5+ WAR player is almost essential for any team that wants to get into the postseason.

Personally, that means that finding the marquee talent(s) is Step 1 on the list of things a contender needs - role players and depth are all well and good, but those are building blocks which need a foundation. So I wanted to find out how teams got their foundations.

To that end, I actually did a little research. As grueling and horrific as spending a couple hours on Baseball-Reference was, I think the results make a lot of sense and provide a pretty obvious picture of where baseball is going when it comes to getting big players. So for each season 1995-2011, I looked at the top ten batters and pitchers by rWAR (I would have used fWAR as I do prefer it, but Fangraphs does not have an easily accessible transactions page and would have required a lot more searching) and sorted them depending on how they were acquired.

I separated acquisitions into three categories: draft, trade, and free agency. Draft includes both players drafted in the Rule 4 amateur draft (Rule 5 would have been included if any players were acquired that way) AND international amateur free agents, which typically meant Latin players. The reason for including them is simple: much like the amateur draft, international free agents require amateur scouting and development time once signed. There is a significant difference in that there are no slot recommendations or exclusive negotiating rights, but for the most part I do not think this changes the equation enough to consider these players true free agents. Like the amateur draft, teams participate in acquiring players via international free agency to the degree of their desire, and the fact that the vast majority of these players are years away from the major leagues makes them kin to Rule 4-eligible amateurs.

Trades are obvious: any player acquired via trade, including players acquired while they were in the minor leagues, fits into this category.

Free agency includes both Major Leaguers who qualify AND international free agents, which here always meant players from Asia (and only meant two players - Ichiro Suzuki and Hideo Nomo). The difference here is that international free agents from this perspective are Major League-ready players who do not need development time and command significant commitments in Major League contracts - they are much more like regular free agents than most Latin players. It also includes a team signing its own free agent, even if that player was originally acquired via draft or trade - Albert Pujols coming back to St. Louis would be considered a free agent acquisition for the 2012 season.

Last, players traded midseason counted for 0.5  - for example, CC Sabathia was traded from Cleveland to Milwaukee in 2008. As Cleveland drafted him and Milwaukee traded for him, Sabathia put 0.5 into free agency and 0.5 into trade for 2008.

BATTERS

PITCHERS

The most immediately obvious thing is what most people likely suspected - teams are now much more likely to get their big-name players by developing them internally, particularly on the pitching side. While the late '90s did see most of the top hitters acquired via the draft, until 2005 pitching was picked up fairly equally among the three methods. Starting that season, on both sides of the ball, teams began and continued to get their big players from their own farm systems.

Clearly, then, there was a larger emphasis on drafting and development as a means of getting stars in the preceding seasons, likely beginning as early as 2000 but more likely around 2002. I would imagine this is at the very least partially a product of Moneyball - as cliche as it is to cite that book as the reason why everything is done nowadays, the timeline matches up pretty closely. Moneyball was published in 2003, but the baseball world started to take notice of Oakland's methodology a year or two earlier, and three years after signing is when the top draft choices would be reaching the majors, implying that many of those players during the initial jump were drafted in 2001-2003, or right around when Oakland started to make noise.

More to the point, it indicates that teams are now more protective of their top prospects, which is something we already knew but nice to see holds up under analysis. Everyone now realizes that those six years of cheap, non-guaranteed contracts are a gold mine of under-market value at a very low risk, and that most players now hit free agency towards the end of their peaks, meaning that big contracts tend to cover the decline phase. Teams also like to extend their own players much more, producing the relatively weak free agent classes of the last few years - from 2009-2011, a grand total of four players (three batters and one pitcher) acquired via free agency made the top ten in rWAR. Another glob of junk excepting a couple gems this offseason promises similar results for 2012.

Anyway, if you're a modern baseball executive with a farm system sorely lacking in impact talent and looking to add a big piece to your potential contender...good luck.

1. Philadelphia Phillies            102-60 .626     Midseason rank: 1       Preseason rank: 2

            The Phillies are the best team in baseball, with a somewhat disappointing year from Roy Oswalt being canceled out by the emergence of Vance Worley, because what the Phils really needed right now was a kid to come out of their system and pitch like another Halladay. Halladay, Lee, and Hamels front the best rotation in the game, Shane Victorino leads an offense with seven players above 2 WAR, and the Phils were World Series favorite until ROFL.

2. New York Yankees                97-65   .599     Midseason rank: 3       Preseason rank: 10

            The Yanks' offense has always been legitimate, it was just a question of pitching. Before the season, I wrote that they had exactly two legitimate pitchers in Sabathia and Rivera. Stupidly of course, I forgot about Bartolo Colon, David Robertson, Ivan Nova, and Freddy Garcia, all of whom joined Sabathia and Rivera in providing 2 WAR or more. I can't really be too hard on myself for not calling that one, though I did underrate the offense a bit.

3. (tie) Milwaukee Brewers     96-66   .593     Midseason rank: 9       Preseason rank: 8

            Doug Melvin went all in with Greinke and Marcum, though he's now probably wishing he had Brett Lawrie back, especially as the Brewers lost in the NLCS. Offensive powerhouse adds a legitimate ace and a solid No. 3 to a franchise with two decades of almost complete failure means a great story as they come together with the third-best record and a major MVP candidate in Ryan Braun. If Prince Fielder wasn't leaving after this season Milwaukee would be sitting pretty right now.

            Texas Rangers             96-66   .593     Midseason rank: 6       Preseason rank: 6

            The only team I pegged at midseason jumps up, probably just to screw with me. Texas is a criminally underrated team, and Jon Daniels deserves all the credit in the world for finding guys like C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis to carry a Josh Hamilton led powerhouse offense. Likely the strongest all-around team in the postseason, it's hard to find fault with a team that finished 2nd in offensive WAR and 5th in pitching WAR. Adding Koji Uehara and Mike Adams to set up Neftali Feliz addressed the only possible concern for Texas and they have to be slightly disappointed as the runner-up for a second year.

5. Detroit Tigers                      95-67   .586     Midseason rank: 9       Preseason rank: 14

            Winter additions of Joaquin Benoit, Victor Martinez, and Jhonny Peralta, and the summer grab of Doug Fister boosted Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera to new heights as the Tigers pushed out the perennially contending Twins and all-in White Sox. Even that's misleading, as the greatest competition Detroit had all season was from Cleveland. Kansas City sucks. Anyway, Alex Avila looks like a great young catcher and while Detroit is top-heavy with talent, that's not really a bad thing as role players are typically a little easier to find than MVP and Cy Young candidates.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks      94-68   .580     Midseason rank: 9       Preseason rank: 24

           The Diamondbacks, no one's pick to win the West, edged out the wonderful defending World Series champs, a bunch of stand-up guys from a lovely city near a bay. Ahem. Arizona had always had a nice offense, but Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson took it into another gear this season, Josh Collmenter took a weird delivery and found great success, and Joe Saunders didn't really help pull the wagon, but he got out and walked instead of making the team carry him. More importantly, J.J. Putz and David Hernandez gave Arizona some stability in the bullpen, which is what was really lacking in previous years. Of course Kevin Towers and Kirk Gibson will get a ton of credit for a successful team they didn't really build, but Josh Byrnes can take solace in...the Padres' GM job now that Jed Hoyer basically threw it away.

7. Tampa Bay Rays                 91-71   .562     Midseason rank: 7       Preseason rank: 4

            For all the people who vehemently disagreed with putting Tampa up here (and there were a lot of you), I hope you've learned something. Not sure what that would be with the Red Sox collapsing instead of the Yankees, but the point is that the Rays won the wild card and finished with the fourth best record in baseball, when a lot of people just figured they were out before season started. One of the best nights of September baseball ever fixed that, and with Matt Moore and Desmond Jennings being added to Evan Longoria, Matt Joyce, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, and possibly James Shields depending on trade winds, the Rays look like strong 2012 contenders.

8. (tie)  Boston Red Sox          90-72   .556     Midseason rank: 2       Preseason rank: 1

            Ah, the team of destiny. Picking up Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez on a team that already featured Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, and Jonathan Papelbon was huge. Then they blew it, as everyone now knows, falling apart in September while the Rays played okay and losing the wild card in the span of a few minutes. Boston led baseball in offensive WAR, with two players (Ellsbury and Pedroia) above 8 WAR, and three more above 3. But injuries to the pitching and a down year from Crawford sunk what is still a damned good team that should look strong going into next year. Obviously Terry Francona was the problem, so they got rid of him, and Theo Epstein might be next. Man, I never thought building a powerhouse and grabbing 90 wins in the toughest division in baseball would lose a guy his job.

             St. Louis Cardinals    90-72   .556     Midseason rank: 9       Preseason rank: 15

            St. Louis also celebrated on the night the Rays won, though their story was a little less interesting because they had already beaten the Astros well before the Braves lost, and because they beat the Astros to win the wild card, and because they don't play in the AL East so they're not as interesting. Adam Wainwright wasn't missed as much as one might expect as Jaime Garcia continued to be a really good pitcher, Chris Carpenter thought he that would be a good career move for him too, and Kyle Lohse figured he'd do more of a become a really good pitcher thing. Lance Berkman had better win the Comeback Player of the Year award, and Albert Pujols had the worst year of his career while leading his team in WAR. That should be some fun offseason bidding. 2012 is iffy though, as Wainwright comes back but Berkman is no guarantee to produce and Pujols may be wearing a different uniform. Unless, of course, the recent incredibly unlikely championship provides some sort of reason to stay. It's just possible.

10. Atlanta Braves                  89-73   .549     Midseason rank: 4       Preseason rank: 5

            How the mighty have fallen. Atlanta joined Boston in collapsing in September, allowing the just-mentioned Cardinals to sneak past them into the playoffs. Considered the contender for the Eastern division crown for wont of a Phillies bus crash, Atlanta took a bunch of young pitching and Tim Hudson and a bunch of young-ish hitting and didn't do that last thing. The Braves finished 23rd in baseball in wOBA, with Jason Heyward showing signs of mortality and Freddie Freeman taking half a year to get going.

11. (tie) Los Angeles Angels  86-76   .531     Midseason rank: 8       Preseason rank: 17

            There are far more bad things to say about the Angels than good - they traded Mike Napoli to Texas via Toronto for Vernon Wells and his bloated contract because of Jeff Mathis. Mathis and Wells were two of the worst hitters in the majors, while Napoli looked like an MVP candidate, which led to a justified purge of the front office. But a very underrated rotation led by Jered Weaver and Dan Haren and some surprising depth and all-around talent made this a fairly strong team - despite a huge 2012 commitment the Angels might be able to add enough to once again not win the division because Texas is that good.

            San Francisco Giants  86-76   .531     Midseason rank: 5       Preseason rank: 3

            We all know this story - injuries and poor season from everyone who wasn't a pitcher or Pablo Sandoval caused a late-season crash from the defending World Champs. Most of the pieces are in place for another run in 2012, which will be hotly contested with either the Rockies or the Dodgers because it's someone else's turn now that San Diego and Arizona went already

13. Los Angeles Dodgers       82-79   .509     Midseason rank: 24     Preseason rank: 13

            Lookit that, I got one right. Damn Dodgers. Rather surprising to see a team with the MVP and Cy Young favorite finish in third place, but if the McCourt sale goes through and they get a new owner in time to make a run at Fielder or Pujols, this could be a dangerous team. Everyone knows about Kershaw, but Chad Billingsley is very underrated and Jerry Sands and Dee Gordon look a little dangerous. Luckily Andre Ethier is tailing off and Juan Uribe Schmidt the bed.

14. Toronto Blue Jays             81-81   .500     Midseason rank: 17     Preseason rank: 16

            Toronto's got one of the premier GMs in the game in Alex Anthopolous, and that's the big story here. Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus, and Brett Lawrie look to anchor a deep lineup - now if they can get some pitching (Yu Darvish?) or try to emulate the Red Sox' all-offense approach (David Ortiz? Prince Fielder?), the AL East could have a year when neither Boston nor New York reaches the postseason. Can you imagine such a crazy world?

15. Washington Nationals       80-81   .497     Midseason rank: 16     Preseason rank: 23

            Somehow, giving Jayson Werth seven years and $126 million is already looking like a bad idea; who could have guessed? A strong farm that has already graduated some elite talent will look to contend possibly in 2012 and possibly with another big free agent acquisition.

16. Cleveland Indians             80-82   .494     Midseason Rank: 13   Preseason rank: 25

            The other odd midseason contender from a Central division, Cleveland got things going early but faded as teams that are close tend to do. Another strong offense led by Shin-soo Choo, Not Casey Blake, and Asdrubal Cabrera as well as some nice young bats will look to beat Detroit in 2012 if they can get a largely no-name pitching staff to be more like Justin Masterson.

17. (tie) Chicago White Sox   79-83   .488     Midseason Rank: 19   Preseason rank: 12

            Chicago didn't fail to the same degree as Minnesota, but after an offseason of big acquisitions they couldn't even beat Cleveland - except for the whole "postseason" thing, this was basically Major League 2, which is not worth your time.

            Cincinnati Reds          79-83   .488     Midseason Rank: 17   Preseason rank: 9

            The surprise NL Central champion in 2010 gave us a preview of 2011 in last year's NLDS, when they fell in three games to the Phillies. Another good offensive performance from a deep lineup wasn't enough to support the third-worst staff in the bigs - each of Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, and Roy Halladay by themselves was as or more valuable than the entirety of the Reds' arms.

19. New York Mets                77-85   .475     Midseason Rank: 15   Preseason rank: 21

            The Mets fleeced the Giants in the Wheeler-for-Beltran deal, and managed to get the expected salary relief by giving Francisco Rodriguez to Milwaukee, but made a huge error in not trading Jose Reyes, and may get a chance to repeat that mistake with David Wright. That the Mets' big stories are who they did and didn't trade away is pretty indicative of what's going on there.

20.  Oakland Athletics              74-88   .457     Midseason Rank: 26   Preseason rank: 20

            Hey, got another one! The A's much-heralded young staff didn't quite live up to expectations this year - injuries to Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden did most of the damage, but Trevor Cahill's lack of strikeouts caught up to him as Gio Gonzalez and Brandon McCarthy of all people made the most of things for Oakland. Have I not mentioned the offense yet? Wait, there was offense in Oakland?

21. Colorado Rockies             73-89   .451     Midseason Rank: 20   Preseason rank: 11

            Colorado's season ended quickly when Jorge De La Rosa needed Tommy John surgery and Ubaldo Jiminez' lost velocity ended in a trade to Cleveland where the Rockies got more than they should have but less than Jiminez is worth. Troy Tulowitzki and, after a slow start, Carlos Gonzalez anchored a lineup that had two other decent hitters in zombie Todd Helton and Seth Smith, who is rumored to be on the trade block. Of course.

22. (tie) Florida Marlins          72-90   .444     Midseason Rank: 20   Preseason rank: 18

            Florida's the third straight team to suffer the loss of an ace with Josh Johnson going down early in the season - a banged-up and ineffective Hanley Ramirez didn't help. Florida has plenty of young Major League talent, but not enough pitching or offense to unseat the powerhouses in its division. The move to a new ballpark might raise revenue, but the Marlins need more than one impact free agent.

            Pittsburgh Pirates        72-90   .444     Midseason Rank: 14   Preseason rank: 28

            The Pirates might be closer to contention than they thought, in the running into July last year. Andrew McCutchen is a legitimate star, but Pedro Alvarez needs to become the bat they thought he could be, and Gerrit Cole, Jameson Tallion, and Stetson Allie cannot get to the majors quick enough.

24. (tie) Chicago Cubs            71-91   .438     Midseason Rank: 29   Preseason rank: 22

            New president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have a monstrous task in turning around a team with a $140 million payroll and 91 losses. Starlin Castro and money (much of which is already committed) are pretty much the only things Chicago has going for them - a woeful major league team and barren farm system make this a major project.

             Kansas City Royals    71-91   .438     Midseason Rank: 28   Preseason rank: 27

            Kansas City fell apart a little quicker than Pittsburgh or Cleveland, but once again any thoughts of contention were just gravy for the team this year. One of the strongest farm systems in the game graduated a few players in Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, and Aaron Crow, but they'll have to step it up to push past the .500 barrier into the postseason. Alex Gordon and...Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francouer? Really? Well, they led an actually above-average offense.

            San Diego Padres        71-91   .438     Midseason Rank: 25   Preseason rank: 19

            2010 wore off in San Diego as they flipped their 90-72 record around to 71-91 - an offseason trade of Adrian Gonzalez hurt, but not this much. With a very low payroll and GM Jed Hoyer departing for Chicago, San Diego has a ways to go before they can put enough cheap talent on the field to win some games. Of course, that's what we thought before 2010 too.

27.       Baltimore Orioles        69-93   .426     Midseason Rank: 27   Preseason rank: 29

            Poor Baltimore can't catch a break - after Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman went from sleeper aces to AAA, they lost (I think overrated) GM Andy MacPhail, can't seem to get anyone to actually interview and take their open GM position, and still play in the AL East. Matt Wieters and JJ Hardy were bright spots, but this is a sad, sad team.

28. Seattle Mariners                67-95   .414     Midseason Rank: 20   Preseason rank: 30

            Seattle hovered around .500 until midseason before going on a historic losing streak. Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda front a strong pitching staff that has zero run support, but young bats like Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley hope to change that.

29. Minnesota Twins               63-99   .389     Midseason Rank: 23   Preseason rank: 7

            Everything went wrong in Minnesota this year - the other teams in the division were playing well, they suffered plenty of long injuries, the players who were on the field weren't very good, and team WAR leader Michael Cuddyer is a free agent. After a decade of dominating the AL Central the Twins could be in for an extended period of rebuilding.

30. Houston Astros                 56-106 .346     Midseason Rank: 30   Preseason rank: 26

            One of the worst teams in years, Houston traded everything - Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn - for prospects and semi-prospects. New owner Jim Crane is buying a mess of a franchise, but at least they're finally committing to the rebuild they've needed for years but Drayton McLane would not allow.

Divisional Rankings:

1. AL East       428-382           .528     Midseason Rank: 2     Preseason Rank: 1

2. NL East       420-389           .519     Midseason Rank: 1     Preseason Rank: 2

3. NL West     406-403           .502     Midseason Rank: 4     Preseason Rank: 3

4. AL West     323-325           .498     Midseason Rank: 3     Preseason Rank: 6

5. AL Central  388-422           .479     Midseason Rank: 5     Preseason Rank: 4

6. NL Central  464-508           .477     Midseason Rank: 6     Preseason Rank: 5

            Nothing particularly surprising here - the least expected observation is that the NL West, typically considered subpar, broke the .500 mark and sits in third behind the powerhouse East divisions. The NL Central, despite an influx of talent to Milwaukee and the Wild Card-winning World Champion Cardinals, remains in last place due to the Cubs, Pirates, and mostly Astros, while the general failure of the AL Central (only one team at or above .500) brings it down.

Let's just start with the obvious: Orlando Cabrera sucks, and he does nothing for this team. There was no reason to get him. Zero. He's old and bad; the best thing that can be said is he's cheap. And he's cheap for a reason: he sucks. It may seem like I'm repeating myself, but I hope Brian Sabean reads this and on the tiny chance he does I want to make it perfectly clear: Orlando Cabrera is a bad player.

What's worse, though, is that he's Miguel Tejada. Seriously. They are identical players this season, and Miggy's actually been slightly better. Here's what I mean:

                G     PA     H   HR   RBI   SB    BB%     K%       ISO   BABIP   AVG    OBP    SLG    wOBA   wRC+   Fld   Bsr   WAR

Tejada:   82   322  73  4       28     4       3.7%   9.6%    .093  .255     .242    .274    .334     .260      59         1.5   -1.2    -0.1

Cabrera: 90  344  79  4       34     6       3.8%   11.6%   .077  .265    .244     .277    .321    .268      66         -7.2   0.6    -0.6

It's not just that their slash lines are the same. Their BB% and K% are the same. Their BABIPs are the same. Tejada's defensive numbers are actually better, likely the primary driver of a 0.5 WAR advantage, which would be impressive if he was above replacement level; Cabrera can also still play short according to UZR, as Tejada derives his value from 2B/3B and Cabrera has terrible numbers when not playing SS. Their wOBAs are the same. They're both right-handed hitting over-35 shortstops who should probably retire. Their G, PA, H, HR, R, and SB numbers are almost identical. Hell, Cabrera is 5'10", 194 pounds and Tejada is 5'9", 210 pounds.

The only perceptible difference I can find are in their RBI and LD%. Cabrera's got 38 RBI to Tejada's 26, and a 20.1% LD% compared to 13.3%. Tejada is also on the DL, though unless his injury is much worse than everyone thinks it is that shouldn't matter as he would be back pretty soon.

Therefore there can be only four possible reasons why the Giants decided to trade their highest-level OF prospect for a carbon copy of Tejada:

1. They think they're getting a "proven RBI man". Cabrera's 38 ribbies dwarf Tejada's 26. If this is the case all hope is lost.

2. They realize Cabrera's BABIP is actually lower than it should be given his high LD% and are buying low on an infielder who might not be done and can actually play shortstop. If this is the case I will prance with joy, but excuse me if I don't start stretching quite yet.

3. Tejada is going to be out much longer than we originally thought and the Giants just could not survive without a 36/37-year-old RHH SS with a wOBA in the .260 range so they got another one.

4. Thomas Neal is completely done due to injuries or just being bad and/or we have a glut of outfielders at the major league level and Sabean wanted to get what he could before Neal's value fell further. He was reminded of the absent Tejada's haunting musk while scouting Cabrera.

I don't get it. Cabrera's xBABIP is almost certainly close to .300 with the 20% LD%, but something tells me that's not why Sabean bit, and I think it's rationality coupled with history. Neal may indeed be a 4th OF, but he showed in San Jose he's capable of much more, and selling low (or what appears to be low) on him doesn't make much sense. Even if Neal is nothing and Cabrera is primed for a bounceback, it doesn't make sense that Cabrera would cost anything given the year he's had so far. The fact that Cleveland just got Ubaldo Jiminez means they're trying to make a run this year, and that they would trade Cabrera away should tell us all we need to know: he's not a piece of a playoff team.

This is a continuation of a series I did in the offseason. Fair warning: it is a very long post. Here are the original rankings (parts one, two, and three) and the divisional rankings.

1. Philadelphia Phillies            57        34        .626     Preseason Rank: 2

            Count me as one who thinks Philly has played over its head a little bit. They're obviously the class of the NL, and they'll probably end the season with a .600 winning percentage, but I think they'll have a worse second half. Getting Utley back is nice (to illustrate the sad state of that once-great offense, he's tied for 3rd in WAR in half the games played), but is Shane Victorino a 9 WAR player? I kinda doubt it, even if his BB/K is almost 1. The rotation remains ridiculous even with Oswalt hurt; still, something tells me they'll cool down and only play .600 ball the rest of the way.

2. Boston Red Sox                  55        35        .611     Preseason Rank: 1

            I still think this is the best team in baseball. They started 0-6 and proceeded to a 2-10 first two weeks before gathering a few wins. Then they lost consecutive series against Baltimore and Seattle. Ouch. Adrian Gonzalez is a monster, and while I didn't get the Lackey contract at the time, it makes sense now that Dice-K is hurt and can't put up his usual 7.00 ERA. Jon Lester's injury is going to be a problem if it lingers, and Beckett's performance is unsustainable, but once again, there is potential in the starting rotation, which is nice when your offense has Carl Crawford hitting 8th.

3. New York Yankees            53        35        .602     Preseason Rank: 10

            So I ranked them 10th coming into the year. What of it? It was just a ploy to let Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia be above-average starters, because I knew it would happen if I let them fly under the radar a bit. The Yanks' offense has declined a bit as I thought it would, but only to 2nd in baseball as they've been one of the best defensive teams according to UZR. Since half that team is in their mid-30's, all that does is make me distrust UZR. The starting pitching hasn't been nearly as bad since they resurrected a few zombies.

4. Atlanta Braves                    54        38        .587     Preseason Rank: 5

            I got nothing here, mostly because the Braves are climbing high on my rankings of teams which I respect and despise. Jair Jurrjens is leading baseball in ERA thanks to some questionable peripherals, and it's masking a pretty terrible season from Jason Heyward, who all of a sudden isn't being talked about much. That's a theme here: fantastic starting pitching covering up a pretty crappy offense.

5. San Francisco Giants          52        40        .565     Preseason Rank: 3

            What was I saying about fantastic starting pitching covering up a pretty crappy offense? Despite losing Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez injuring his confidence, we're okay, because Ryan Vogelsong is that awesome, and not just lucky. Get this: the Giants are 23rd in baseball in BB/9. But it's okay, because we're first with a 8.14 K/9 (only team over 8 K/9). Also, we can't hit, which might have something to do with the fact that the only player who is both good at hitting and sound of body is Pablo Sandoval (I think Nate Schierholtz is for real, but let's give him a little longer), and that's being pretty generous with "sound of body".

6. Texas Rangers                     51        41        .554     Preseason Rank: 6

            This is the only team I nailed in the preseason ranking, so let's just say I predicted everything about them perfectly. Close to .500 at one point, Texas has picked it up recently, which could have something to do with getting Josh Hamilton back.

7. Tampa Bay Rays                 49        41        .544     Preseason Rank: 4

            I don't know why so many people thought the Rays were out of it this year; I still have them as the AL WC, as I don't believe in the Yankees' pitching, but at worst they'll be above .500. Nice years from James Shields, Ben Zobrist, and Matt Joyce, plus a good bullpen rebuild.

8. Los Angeles Angels            50        42        .543     Preseason Rank: 17

            Pretty off here, and that was before the Vernon Wells trade. Dan Haren and Jered Weaver are in beast mode, and the Angels have seven position players on pace for a 2 WAR or better season.

9. (tie-4) Detroit Tigers           49        43        .533     Preseason Rank: 14

            Justin Verlander is also in beast mode, and Jhonny Peralta has a positive UZR. Anyone who had Peralta as the midseason WAR leader among free agent position players (and 2nd overall, 0.3 behind Cliff Lee) is probably dead from a meth overdose.

            Milwaukee Brewers    49        43        .533     Preseason Rank: 8

            Zack Greinke currently sports a 5.45 ERA and a 2.98 FIP with a K/BB of 6, which is very 2011 Brewers. Completely unrelated, Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Braun are the only offense while Casey McGeehee would like to borrow some of Nyjer Morgan's .392 BABIP.

            St. Louis Cardinals     49        43        .533     Preseason Rank: 15

            Also dead from a meth (and heroin, and cocaine, and probably Pop Rock) overdose is anyone who had Lance Berkman 2nd in baseball with a .602 SLG. Losing Adam Wainwright hasn't hurt the Cards with newly-extended Jaime Garcia and Kyle Lohse filling his shoes.

            Arizona Diamondbacks 49     43        .533     Preseason Rank: 24

            Get this: a team with a great offense and solid starting pitching bounces back from a horrible year to a good season because their bullpen went from historically terrible to decent. Incredible, really, given the rock-solid consistency of relief pitchers.

13. Cleveland Indians                         47        42        .528     Preseason Rank: 25

            There's something cooking in the Central, but at this point I've overplayed the meth card; the Indians are the surprise contender of the year at only half game out of first place and have accelerated their timetable to this year. They have too many infield prospects; I'll take Asdrubal Cabrera to go, please.

14. Pittsburgh Pirates             47        43        .522     Preseason Rank: 28

            FOOLED YOU! Actually, the Pirates are the surprise contender of the year at only one game out. To be fair, the NL Central blows and they're definitely not going to be here all year, but Andrew McCutchen is legit and Kevin Correia is an All-Star, which would be even more hilarious if he were still in SF because he could have stood next to Ryan Vogelsong for epic lulz.

Finally, the vast majority of people who thought they were the worst team in baseball can suck it.

15. New York Mets                46        45        .505     Preseason Rank: 21

            Jose Reyes is an MVP candidate because hitting .354 boosts your OPS like nothing else; his power and patience really aren't that great, but a .375 BABIP helps a lot. The Mets suck, though, with injury problems and general ineptitude, but a knuckleballer as a staff ace is sweet.

16. Washington Nationals       46        46        .500     Preseason Rank: 23

            Jordan Zimmermann is all the way back from Tommy John surgery, though I think they should have used the extra 'n' instead of a ligament. That Jayson Werth contract is getting a jump on the bad years as he's tied for 9th among their position players in WAR with Pudge and...Jordan Zimmermann.

 17. (tie-2) Toronto Blue Jays 45        47        .489     Preseason Rank: 16

            Jose Bautista is really the only thing worth talking about in Toronto. Jose Bautisa is awesome. Really, really awesome. Totally incredible. An unbelievable player. Patience, power, average, defense, the All-Star vote record, all his. Alex Anthopolous is pretty badass too.  

            Cincinnati Reds          45        47        .489     Preseason Rank: 9

            The Reds are somehow below .500 despite being on pace for 40 WAR from their position players alone. The starting pitching is bad, but it's okay, because they've got depth, so when a bad starting pitcher gets hurt or goes to AAA, they can replace him with another bad pitcher.

19. Chicago White Sox           44        48        .478     Preseason Rank: 12

            Adam Dunn is having an incredibly horrible year, going 2-64 (0.31) against lefties. Juan Pierre is also very bad. Edwin Jackson is not so bad, despite a mid-4.00's ERA, and headlines a pretty nice starting staff. Alexei Ramirez is probably the most underrated player in baseball.

 20. (tie-3) Seattle Mariners    43        48        .473     Preseason Rank: 30

            Perhaps I was overzealous here because of how much of a disappointment the M's were in 2010, but I still think they're crap. Ichiro is starting to look like a 37 year old instead of Pete Rose (what am I saying? Ichiro looks more like Fran Drescher than Pete Rose). Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda are looking good, and Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley should be good if Ackley can overcome his coke problem.

            Colorado Rockies       43        48        .473     Preseason Rank: 11

            Troy Tulowitzki good, Carlos Gonzalez horrible then good, Ubaldo Jiminez horrible then good, Rockies overall having a fantastic season from my point of view.

            Florida Marlins            43        48        .473     Preseason Rank: 18

            The Marlins won five games in June, and two were against Oakland. They're done.           

23. Minnesota Twins               41        48        .461     Preseason Rank: 7

            Injuries, crappy play, and the Twins go from perennial contender to "what can we sell?" which produces a very short list: Michael Cuddyer and "Well Played, Mauer" T-shirts.

24. Los Angeles Dodgers       41        51        .446     Preseason Rank: 13

            This is the Dodgers' season:

25. San Diego Padres             40        52        .435     Preseason Rank: 19

            Apparently, Adrian Gonzalez was worth something like 30 wins to San Diego, because they're the same team doing the same thing and they suck now.

26. Oakland Athletics                         39        53        .424     Preseason Rank: 20

            Oakland's been hurt by injuries as bad as the Giants, which clearly means there needs to be more fluoride in the water, and that championship rings are some sort of life force for winning percentages.           

27. Baltimore Orioles             36        52        .409     Preseason Rank: 29

            Baltimore really hasn't been that bad, with J.J. Hardy tearing it up (and talking about an extension, which would be the dumbest thing ever), but AL East.

28. Kansas City Royals           37        54        .407     Preseason Rank: 27

            KC is the other reason I said there's something cooking in the Central (also because the Midwest is full of meth labs) with a brief window where they thought they could contend. They weren't not wrong.

29. Chicago Cubs                    37        55        .402     Preseason Rank: 22

            At this point, I think either Cubs fans enjoy losing or there's going to be a mass suicide sometime in the next few weeks; there's no excuse to have a payroll that big and be the second-worst team in baseball in the worst division in baseball. Aramis Ramirez being traded back to the Pirates would be cause for a lot of alcohol-related deaths in Chicago.

30. Houston Astros                 30        62        .326     Preseason Rank: 26

            The Houston Astros baseball team is bad at playing baseball.

Overall, I think this list proves that I should shut the hell up about baseball. Or maybe the sport is just unpredictable. I'm going to go with the second one because otherwise I've wasted a lot of time on the computer. My favorite part is the run where I had a bunch of teams ranked in the 20s above a bunch of teams ranked in the teens (or higher), namely the Diamondbacks-White Sox bit.

Division Rankings:

1. NL East       246-211           .538     Preseason Rank: 2

2. AL East       238-210           .531     Preseason Rank: 1

3. AL West     183-184           .499     Preseason Rank: 6

4. NL West     225-234           .490     Preseason Rank: 3

5. AL Central  218-235           .481     Preseason Rank: 4

6. NL Central  257-293           .467     Preseason Rank: 5

So there's been some shakeup in the divisional rankings, with the AL West getting a lot stronger - the only real difference as it leapfrogged from 6th to 3rd and pushed everyone else down a slot - and the Eastern divisions basically stomping everyone else. Interesting that four of six divisions are below .500

If you've stayed with me this long, I salute you. For funsies, let's do a "what do you think" box and I can pretend to care about your opinions:

First-half surprise team:
Second-half surprise team:
Surprise playoff entrant:
First-half MVP:
First-half LVP:
Second-half MVP:
Second-half LVP:
Best record in baseball:

MVP and LVP include pitchers as well as position players.

I should start by saying that I do believe Bonds used steroids, and that technically no one has proven he did use them. I will cling to that technicality for as long as I can, because I am an unabashed Barry fan and a proponent of "innocent until proven guilty". Though I realize that for many, the evidence is already strong enough to prove him guilty. This is all beside the point, though.

What if Barry hadn't started using steroids? What if he went his whole career without a single injection, balm, or pill? A pure, unenhanced player among many who were decidedly not.

The general consensus seems to be that Barry started using steroids sometime in the mid-nineties, possibly as late as 2000. His career with the Pirates is generally considered steroid-free, but almost all of his Giants campaigns would then have been partially PED driven.

Let's start with some milestones. Without steroids, I don't think he would have broken the single-season home run record. I think his single-season home run totals would drop for every season. But they would still be good. I doubt he'd lose more than ten home runs a season at maximum. Definitely no more than 100 over the course of his 14-year Giants career.

In total, I think he drops maybe sixty bombs and finishes around 700 at the end of the 2007 season. Remember, when he got to San Francisco he was still under thirty and had two 30+ HR campaigns in the last two years. I also don't think his intentional walk totals or OBP would suffer much; he wasn't being walked a lot until 2002, and not a ridiculous amount until 2004. But that 2004 team wasn't the offensive juggernaut previous seasons had produced, so I think other teams would have walked him anyway just because it was easier to pitch around him than let his still-prodigious power and undiminished, incredible batting eye hurt them. I'd say he loses some average as well, since he's not hitting them out with such frequency, but not much. His stolen base totals would probably increase, since he's getting more chances to run the bases with fewer balls leaving the yard.

But this still leaves him as probably the most iconic, powerful slugger in the game. Bonds was so utterly dominant that he could afford to lose those home runs and still be far-and-away the best hitter in the majors. So he still gets called to the witness stand in 2003. He still has to answer the questions about whether he used steroids; there would be no real evidence this time, particularly in regard to his head size, but I highly doubt the grand jury would ignore him just because there wasn't any evidence. They would at least want to talk to him.

This time, of course, he can categorically deny everything since he definitely hasn't used steroids. No obstruction of justice here; he can give clear and complete answers to any questions the grand jury might have.

Would it matter? Would the grand jury believe him? Would they still launch an investigation? I think they absolutely would. I think the clear nature of his answers would light a new fire underneath them; if they can prove anything, they've obviously got him on perjury charges. They don't have to prove that he said he didn't use steroids and that he used steroids, just the last part. The court case becomes easier; it's finding the evidence that will be impossible.

So I think he still gets at least investigated. I'm not sure if he gets tried; I think Ilston would have thrown the case out due to lack of evidence. But he still doesn't get signed after 2007; after being investigated and MLB wanting to keep him out as a token of the steroid era, he hits free agency without breaking Aaron's record (though he passes Ruth). Despite no trial, I think his career ends after the '07 season, this time for absolutely no reason.

What about the media? Do they still attack him and accuse him endlessly? Of course. It's never been only about the steroids with Bonds; he's been singled out because he's the best. If the media just cared about steroid users, then Bonds and steroids would have been more of a local story than a national one; local media would focus on their team's users. The Red Sox' writers wouldn't care about Bonds. And even without steroids, Bonds is probably still the best hitter in the game.

Jeff Bagwell is the other reason I believe this. Bagwell has no connection to steroids at all. There's pretty much no chance he was using. He's got Hall of Fame numbers. But the question remains: will he get in? Bagwell was a HOF player who wasn't using when everyone else was. So people assume he did. Or at the very least they aren't sure, and tend to give some credence to rumor. It's just a case of steroid era+good player = steroid user.

Bagwell wasn't the best player in the game, even if Bonds is removed from the equation entirely. And since I think Bonds would have been the best without steroids, there's no chance he isn't associated anyway. If Bagwell can see his HOF chances at least diminished for no reason other than rumor, Bonds absolutely is assumed to be a user. After all, what sportswriter can resist the obvious idea that since Bonds is better than steroid users, he must be on something himself? It's easily written, since you don't have any sources to talk to, it's sensationalist, it's about the best player on any field.

So without using, I think Bonds is still tagged as enhanced. His disdain for the media and their reaction to that is just pushing him towards the obvious end. I think it would be more speculation and less "look at the size of his head!" but I doubt many writers would go from convinced to unconvinced. They would just assume, as they have with Bagwell, that everyone was doing it so he was too, and his league-leading numbers wouldn't have helped him. For the same reasons, his HOF chances would have been marginalized to the degree that I think he wouldn't have gotten in on the first ballot.

That's really the sad irony to all of this. If Bonds hadn't used, he probably would've been the best player in the game for awhile anyway. He probably would have led the league in several categories - instead of pretty much all of them - for several seasons. That would have fueled the steroid suspicions. And the steroid suspicions would have, for a while at least, kept him out of the Hall. Had he hit worse, actually diminished his case for entry, then maybe he would get in sooner, as fewer voters would be convinced he was a user. This whole ethical judgment of players in the steroid era has led me to the resoundingly idiotic conclusion that a player would have a better chance of getting in if he hit worse, and that's all that needs to be said.

This post is based on the previous Power Rankings posts (parts one, two, and three)

1. AL East (Average Team Rank: 12.2; Average 2010 Wins: 86)

2. NL East (Average Team Rank: 13.8; Average 2010 Wins: 83)

3. NL West (Average Team Rank: 14; Average 2010 Wins: 82)

4. AL Central (Average Team Rank: 17; Average 2010 Wins: 80)

5. NL Central (Average Team Rank: 18; Average 2010 Wins: 77)

6. AL West (Average Team Rank: 18.25; Average 2010 Wins: 78)

Eyeballing this, it appears about right both in the general sense and its proximity to the divisions' performance in 2010, which makes me feel better about the rankings. The AL West is the worst division in baseball; three out of four teams had a record of .500 or below, it included the second worst team in baseball, and despite this pathetic competition the division champion Rangers had the worst record of all playoff teams. The NL Central has been the worst division until last year, so proximity to the bottom makes a lot of sense as well; some key acquisitions by the Brewers and a strong 2010 performance by the Reds helps the fact that four of six teams finished below .500 last year and the division champion Reds tied for the worst record of NL playoff teams and second worst record overall despite playing the Pirates, Astros, Cubs, and Brewers a bazillion times. The Central was the worst division in 2010, as clearly shown, but the Brewers' moves, along with my beliefs about the Pirates and Mariners, dig them out of the cellar for me. For those who thought that the Pirates deserved to be the worst team in the majors, swapping them with the M's led to a Central ranking of 18.33 and a West ranking of 17.75, so you may still think that the Central is the worst division. In any case, it's quite close, and the two are almost certainly the worst divisions in baseball; I suppose if you had issues with my placement of the Mariners, A's, and Angels the West might overtake the Central, but then you run into issues when looking at 2010 performance.

The AL East is of course leading the pack with three teams in the top 10, and payrolls account for that. Some also thought my ranking of the Rays was too high, which is certainly possible, and that the Yankees were too low. These largely offset each other, though, so they likely don't have much relevance to the divisional rankings. The NL East really isn't far behind its AL counterpart, again understandable as Cliff Lee has been added to the division, Jayson Werth didn't leave it, the Marlins and Braves are brimming with young talent, and the Phillies are the best team in the NL. The NL West is very close behind, though, and this is exactly in line with my thinking; the NL West features four theoretical playoff contenders, and the worst team in the division is the Diamondbacks, who really aren't that bad. Sure, their pitching is God-awful, but they can hit. If the Nats hadn't signed Werth or didn't have a few interesting arms and nice prospects the D'backs would be the best of the worst. Arguments can certainly be made for the NL West as the second-best division in baseball; it doesn't have a powerhouse like Philadelphia, but there are four good teams who will all be looking to try and make the postseason in 2011.

The AL Central in the middle is bolstered by the Twins and the Tigers' and White Sox' additions of Martinez and Dunn, coupled with the fact that all three teams were good in 2010 and should be better in 2011 (except perhaps the Twins). The Royals and Indians really drag this division down, though that won't be true of Kansas City in a couple years.

There is also a sizable gap between the NL West and the AL Central; three places and the .500 mark separate them. This is also where I would distinguish between good divisions and bad divisions; the AL Central does have potential, but I'd like to see how bad the Royals are and how well the Tigers' and White Sox' new additions play before I give them that label.

All in all, I think this turned out fairly well. There was some debate on a few rankings, but by and large I'd say this is a fairly accurate list, a notion reinforced by what I feel are accurate divisional rankings produced from the previous posts.

Part one can be found here

Part two can be found here

21. Mets - At least the Yankees were #10; with a $125 million payroll, the Mets barely avoid being the worst team in their division. They can hit a little, with Carlos Beltran, David Wright, and Jose Reyes back for a full season, but unless Jason Bay finds himself again, they're going to be a below-average offensive team. The pitching is worse, with the Mets desperately hoping that R.A. Dickey is for real (quite a gamble, given the number of successful knuckleballers) and that Mike Pelfrey doesn't repeat his "I'm good every other year" bit. With Jonathan Niese as the fourth starter, and Mediocre-At-Best FA Acquisition the fifth starter, the Mets' rotation is fairly ugly. Francisco Rodriguez got himself into some legal trouble, and Hisanori Takahashi and Pedro Feliciano bolted for other teams. Meanwhile, they still owe Oliver Perez $12 million.

22. Cubs - More payroll/record disparities. The Cubs spent $150 million last year to win 75 games and take the coveted fifth spot in a division that finished with 60% of its teams below .500. Alfonso Soriano's contract isn't as bad as it looks, but it's still pretty bad, and they're probably wishing they didn't owe Carlos "Totally Crazy" Zambrano $20 million for each of the next two seasons. Carlos Silva was a bright spot, though how long that will continue is up in the air. It's pretty bad when one of three (good) highlights from your season - the others being Starlin Castro and Carlos Marmol - was the guy you only took to save some money and dump a player you hate. The Cubs have a few good players in Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Ryan Dempster, Marmol, and Castro, but they are surrounded by mediocrity or worse. I don't really understand why Jim Hendry thinks Carlos Pena will help them at one year and $10 million, but then again I don't really understand Jim Hendry.

23. Nationals - The Nationals made the biggest FA splash, until Philadelphia stole their thunder, when they signed Jayson Werth. He'll hopefully just about replace Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham. Still, the Nationals may be bad now, but they've got some exciting pieces to watch even during Stephen Strasburg's lost season (Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos, Jordan Zimmermann, Danny Espinosa, and Drew Storen) and will probably be ready to contend before Werth's deal expires.

24. Diamondbacks - A better team than most give them credit for, the Diamondbacks' 65-97 2010 record ignores an excellent, balanced offense. The Dbacks suffered from a terrible bullpen and a strong division in 2010, but bullpens are fluky enough that this cannot be held against them. Despite trading Dan Haren, their rotation should be stronger next year with Ian Kennedy returning and a full season of Daniel Hudson. After that, things get funny (Barry Enright!), though Joe Saunders is probably a competent third starter. The bullpen is still a giant question mark despite the addition of JJ Putz (who is himself not particularly reliable), but the Diamondbacks possess a great offense and could find themselves in fourth place or even higher with some good years by pitchers and a disappointing season from the Rockies or Dodgers.

25. Indians - The Indians are the team I know the least about, which is odd considering Major League is one of my favorite movies. But they just don't do anything. They were damned good in 2007, which surprised me, because I was sure they had been awful since the early 2000's. But the last two years have been bad, during which time they've made a couple minor trades (Casey Blake for Carlos Santana obligatory mention, trading for and trading away Mark DeRosa) and dealt two big pitchers and Victor Martinez for rather underwhelming returns. The Indians don't have as much young talent in the majors as some other squads, but they get a lot of points for Santana, and have a very good outfielder in Shin-Soo Choo. It's kind of incredible how bland this team is; I don't know anyone in their rotation beyond Fausto Carmona. They're bad, I guess. Whatever.

26. Astros - The Astros are rather incredible to me. They managed to alternate good and bad seasons for a couple years, have some very good players and a lot of very bad ones, gave out a couple stupid looking free agent deals, some of which turned out to be all right, and traded franchise players for just about nothing a few months after their value went way down. I have no idea what they're going to do next, but it's probably not "win baseball games". To prove this, I will point to the fact that they signed Bill Hall to start, and their farm system. If they didn't have J.A. Happ (who I probably like more than most, and isn't that good anyway), this would be an uglier team, and that's both sad and amazing.

27. Royals - The Royals apparently have the best farm system in baseball. Little of that talent will be making an impact in 2011, and so they are a very bad team, especially without Zack Greinke. Going from Yuniesky Betancourt to Alcides Escobar was a great move both in the short-term and the long-term (that's how bad Betancourt is), but Billy Butler is still their best hitter until they finally give Alex Gordon a shot and he shows up. And outside of Joakim Soria, they have no pitching. Gil Meche + Luke Hochevar + Sean O'Sullivan = LOL

28. Pirates - Like the Nationals, the Pirates have some interesting pieces already up at the major league level in Andrew McCutchen (one of my favorite young outfielders), Neil Walker, and Pedro Alvarez. All three have shown they can hit major league pitching, but Ronny Cedeno was their shortstop last year. Lyle Overbay is their starting first baseman. Their pitching is the worst in baseball. They haven't had a winning season in 18 years. That doesn't really have any relevance to next year's squad, but it's certainly not helping. Once their pitching shows up, though, they might do something about that. Hey, it only took them a couple decades.

29. Orioles - I don't know why I thought Andy MacPhail was a good executive. Last year, he gave Garret Atkins $4.5 million in guaranteed money. Mike Gonzalez got a two year deal, and proceeded to immediately hurt himself. This year, he held on to Ty Wigginton for no reason despite significant demand, acquired Mark Reynolds to block Josh Bell at third base despite no long-term first baseman (I guess Luke Scott could work) and a serious need for starting pitching, and now they've signed Kevin Gregg to replace Gonzalez. I guess the JJ Hardy trade was okay. But while the AL East isn't doing them any favors, the Orioles are a legitimately awful team.

30. Mariners - Talent-wise, the Mariners are probably five spots up. But for some reason, they're much like the Diamondbacks in their complete inability to produce once on the field. They took a surprisingly successful 2009 and a bunch of moves that looked great and turned them into 101 losses. Milton Bradley is a good hitter that is apparently too insane to play baseball, which is pretty amazing. Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he could only grab 13 wins because of his team's historically bad offense. The Mariners could be a 75-win team with bounceback years from Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez, and Chone Figgins, and Justin Smoak showing up, but they really should be trading David Aardsma, Jack Wilson, Gutierrez, and Figgins (if they can do it) and aiming for 2012-2013. Instead they signed Miguel Olivo and Erik Bedard. I'm disappointed, Jack Z. (okay, I did like the Cust deal).

Part One can be found here

11. Rockies - Two offensive superstars surrounded by a bunch of meh gets you a below-average offense, and while the Rockies were actually a better pitching squad than the Giants last year by WAR, the loss of Jeff Francis hurts and the FIP-based fWAR ignores their 4.14 team ERA. The Rockies pitched better than they got, but still not that well.

12. White Sox - One of the best starting rotations in the majors, and the best overall pitching staff by fWAR, they added a huge offensive piece in Adam Dunn. This will help when Paul Konerko regresses and the front office fails to replace Bobby Jenks. A full season of Jake Peavy makes them a better team than last year.

13. Dodgers - 2010 was fun. After they were the pick to win the division by many if not most, the Dodgers finished 80-82. Unfortunately, they're better this year with a very strong starting rotation and hoping for bounceback years from Matt Kemp and Jonathan Broxton. If that happens, they'll be a strong team with a good rotation, decent bullpen, and strong offense. Were they to acquire a good left fielder and a good middle reliever, they'd be a better team than the Rockies.

14. Tigers - With a ridiculous amount of money to spend this offseason, the Tigers added a couple nice pieces in Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit, but really could have done more. The rotation and bullpen are nice, but the offense is due for regression. Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch are not that good, and Miguel Cabrera is that good but not consistently.

15. Cardinals - The Cardinals rely exclusively on six (very good) players: Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Jaime Garcia. Yadier Molina and David Freese provide some value, and Ryan Franklin is a decent closer, but if one of those starting six gets hurt for an extended period of time, the Cardinals are sunk. With the Brewers and Reds as strong as they are, they're probably sunk anyway.

16. Blue Jays - A good team in an impossible division, the Jays enjoyed a ridiculous season from Jose Bautista that they cannot expect again. They can expect better seasons from Adam Lind and Aaron Hill, though, and made a good investment by dumping Alex Gonzalez for Yunel Escobar. Still, trading Shaun Marcum hurts and Brandon Morrow still needs to prove himself. The Jays could be dangerous in a couple years if J.P. Arencibia does well and their already impressive rotation continues to mature, but for now they're a .500 team, though that is better than it sounds.

17. Angels - Losing Kendry Morales for a whole season really hurt this squad, and losing Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, and Adrian Beltre hurt even more. They might be better next year, with Morales back, and the extended Brandon Wood tryout over, but they missed several opportunities to become a good team via the FA market and their already old team is just getting older.

18. Marlins - Josh Johnson busted out this year, but like the Cardinals and Rockies, the Marlins are not diverse enough. They questionably gave up one of their better outfielders in Cody Ross for nothing (though I'm not complaining), and while Logan Morrison, Mike Stanton, and Gaby Sanchez ought to prove solid lineup cogs alongside Hanley Ramirez, they are not quite there yet, and the loss of Dan Uggla and the uninspiring return push the Marlins down. Anibal Sanchez is going to be good, but Javier Vazquez and Ricky Nolasco are question marks. Johnson, Ramirez, and Chris Coghlan will be doing most of the heavy lifting, though the Marlins have a few more All-Stars on their squad. This team is a big sleeper for 2010; despite their tough division, if Stanton and Morrison break out like they can, Nolasco posts an ERA in line with his peripherals, and Vazquez enjoys an NL resurgence, the Marlins could contend into September. The upside is there, but not reliable enough for a higher spot.

19. Padres -  2010 was also weird. The Padres spent most of the season in first place, before falling on their asses when they realized they were the Padres. After selling their only offensive piece, the additions of Cameron Maybin and Orlando Hudson and a full season of Ryan Ludwick might be just enough to cover the holes made by Adrian Gonzalez's departure, but probably not. And now that half their bullpen has been sold off, and considering their defense and pitching oriented attack is unreliable, they probably won't contend next year. And now that I've said that, they'll hang around all season, annoying the hell out of everyone else and making us more nervous than we should be.

20. A's - A .500 record gets you second place in the AL West, but the A's should be better this year. Adding Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, and Hideki Matsui to an otherwise anemic offense and solid rotation nets you a pretty nice team. Unfortunately, the A's are the antithesis of the Marlins, etc.: lots of solid players, no stars. It wouldn't be surprising to see the A's lack a player over 3 WAR next year, and as Willingham, DeJesus, and Matsui are only under contract for 2011, the A's better contend now. Too bad; without a few players providing value above and beyond most major leaguers, the A's won't be able to leapfrog the superior Angels and Rangers.

With 2011 now upon us, "the 2011 season" is no longer next year. Duh. I hate writing introductions.

More importantly, with the exception of a few players, most free agents are off the board, the biggest trade targets have switched homes (for now), and for the most part, teams will be the same in a few months. Since I managed to take forever evaluating teams in my head to prove to Roger why he's so unbelievably dumb, I figured I'd get a little more mileage out of those thoughts (gotta squeeze every drop) with a Power Rankings post, and inadvertently agree with him.

1. Red Sox - Additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford give them one of the best offensive and defensive teams, probably the best at least offensively. Their starting pitching wasn't great in 2010, but they have five good starters in Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, each with upside. The addition of Bobby Jenks puts three closers (Bard, Papelbon, Jenks) in a good bullpen. All-around excellent squad, probably one of the best in years.

2. Phillies - If they weren't going to get #1, they have to be #2. Offense is aging (just like the rest of the team) and has a bad injury history, but they won't need to live up to their history with that starting staff. If they do, they'll be fighting the Sox for the top spot. Bullpen is a little shaky, with Madson they only really solid option, but if Lidge is good that'll be enough.

3. Giants - WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS BABY! Actually, this was a tough call. A little bit of homerism gets the Giants up here, but the fact that they had the second-best pitching staff and ninth-best offense+defense in baseball by fWAR last year makes them one of the best all-around teams. Jonathan Sanchez, Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, and Andres Torres probably won't be as good next year, and Juan Uribe has been exchanged for Miguel Tejada, but better seasons from Tim Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval and full seasons of Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Cody Ross, Burrell, and Torres plus a deeper bench with Aaron Rowand and Mark DeRosa should at least equalize that. With a little luck, they could be a 95-win team.

4. Rays - This is probably high for most people, but I think the Rays are going to be just as good next year. They lost Crawford and Pena, and now have to compete with the powerhouse Red Sox, who are not only better but will probably not suffer as many injuries. But Desmond Jennings and Dan Johnson are capable, if not equal, replacements. A full season of John Jaso behind the plate will help, and Andrew Friedman has already acquired some nice bullpen pieces in Cesar Ramos, Adam Russell, and Joel Peralta. And with that rotation's true talent level far above last year's performance, plus the addition of Hellickson, their pitching should be better overall, likely balancing out the offensive loss. If they manage to trade a starter for a bat, all the better. Still, it's not as though the Rays are the fourth-best team in baseball so much as the no other team is.

5. Braves - A young team on the rise yet again. Will these bastards ever stop? Have some goddamned sustained failure, you pricks, and stop it with the endless supply of talented young players. Hanson in 2009, Heyward last year, a fresh new bullpen corps for 2011 and probably Julio Teheran in 2012. The Braves have good-to-great starting pitching, an excellent bullpen, and at least a capable offense. And now they have Dan Uggla. And Heyward could get better. Goddammit.

6. Rangers - The defending AL champs are sixth, and that's probably pretty high. The loss of Cliff Lee really stings, and Vladimir Guerrero's departure hurts almost as badly. Without Lee, there is no ace, and Colby Lewis isn't exactly a rock-solid No. 3, much less a No. 2. Still, their offense is powerful, and Derek Holland is a solid fifth starter if Neftali Feliz isn't converted from the bullpen. Another team with few holes, and acting like they're going to fill a nonexistent one by adding Adrian Beltre.

7. Twins - I seriously don't get why the Twins are good. None of their pitchers are really anything special (except Francisco Liriano, who's rather unpredictable), except some bullpen guys who all left. They managed to win 94 games last year without Joe Nathan or Justin Morneau, though, so there's gotta be something there. Jim Thome was surprisingly helpful. Like the Rays, they have to rebuild their bullpen, but Nathan helps with that. The Twins are a very good all-around team with a few superstars, and I can't wrap my head around the fact that Delmon Young was a two-win player last year.

8. Brewers - The Brewers a top 10 team? Wow. But that's what happens when you add Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to Yovani Gallardo on one of the best offensive teams in the majors. Of course, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart probably aren't worth 10 wins by themselves, but the Brewers could win 90 or so games and take the NL Central. If they could get some decent relief pitching they'd probably be in the top five.

9. Reds - They lost Aaron Harang, who was sadly one of their better pitchers last year, and Arthur Rhodes, who was their best bullpen piece. They've still got one of the best young offenses in the game, and Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto have serious upside, plus Bronson Arroyo isn't half bad, and if Aroldis Chapman is with the team, he and Francisco Cordero form a solid back end of the bullpen. If Chapman is starting, the Reds move ahead of the Brewers.

10. Yankees - Ouch. $200 million gets you the last spot in the top 10? The Yankees were the best offensive team in the majors last year, but when that offense is as old as it is and it's supplemented by exactly two reliably good pitchers in CC Sabathia and Mariano Rivera, you just can't count on them. If Andy Pettitte comes back, Phil Hughes manages to stay effective for a season, Joba Chamberlain shows some of that hype, A-Rod, Jeter, and Teixeira return to form somewhat and stay healthy, Cano continues hitting, and their bullpen manages to not blow it, they'll prove serious competition for the Rays. Otherwise, they'll hit a lot, but it won't matter, since they'll end up in third place anyway.

So ends the top 10. Your top ten teams, if you please.

Well, the offseason is here, and I'm already thinking about next year. I mean, yeah, we won the World Series, but wouldn't a repeat be nice? Plus, as a baseball junkie, if I don't have actual games to watch, I start doing too much thinking about constructing the team. So let's look at the potential 2011 Giants.

We'll start with the pitching staff, because that's how we're going to win games. The rotation is already set: Lincecum, Sanchez, Cain, Bumgarner, Zito. Hopefully that will be the actual order, but I'm not sure we continue to insult Zito and put a sophomore ahead of him, even though we should (and it's arguable that Bumgarner should be in the #2 spot).

Rotation:
Lincecum ($14M), Cain ($7.3M), Sanchez (guessing $5M), Bumgarner, ($400K), Zito ($18.5M) = $45.5M or so

Yup, that's expensive. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sanchez locked up to a two-year contract, likely at $14M or so total (6/8 or 5/9), but everyone else's salaries are set, and even if Sanchez does get something else it won't be much more or less than five million. Boy, Zito's contract is ugly.

Bullpen:

Wilson ($6.5M), Romo ($400K), Affeldt ($4.5M), Ray (guessing $1.2M), Lopez (guessing $1M), Ramirez (guessing $1.3M), Casilla (guessing $1M) = $16M or so, bringing the total to 45.5+16 = $61.5M

The bullpen isn't cheap either. Ray and Ramirez are non-tender candidates, considering their previous salaries and longer ML service. I am just guessing on these, and I wouldn't be surprised if I'm too high on everyone, but it still doesn't look great. Even if one or both of Ray and Ramirez are non-tendered, with the Dan Runzler: Starter experiment we can't count on him in the 'pen as well (not that we should assume the team would carry three lefties with 3/5 of the rotation being left-handed), so we'd have to either use Joaquin, which is scary, or find another Santiago Casilla on the scrap heap. We're pretty good at that (see: Brandon Medders, Justin Miller), but personally I'd rather keep both and use that ability to find a backup when someone blows up (see: Brandon Medders, Justin Miller). The Giants need their bullpen depth, and having unreliable arms with an unreliable offense is not going to win games.

The lineup and bench are quite tricky. We have three key free agents in Huff, Burrell, and Uribe, and not a lot of payroll room even with Edgar's $10M coming off the books, because we have eight arbitration eligible players, plus raises to several other guys. I wouldn't expect all three to return; two maximum, and at least one.

Huff is the most likely considering his year here both on and off the field, as well as our 1B vacancy considering Belt probably isn't ready yet. Not a lot of teams are looking for first basemen or DHs, and it's unlikely he'd get a job as an outfielder. Carlos Pena and Derrek Lee mean that the 1B free agent class isn't that bad, and is kind of great compared to other positions. I see Huff returning on a 1/8 or 2/14 deal ($7M/year).

Juan Uribe is actually more important to the Giants (if Huff left, Ishikawa could probably play first, but who's the SS if Uribe leaves? Fontenot?), and less likely to return. With the shortstop market having me as the fourth-best option, Uribe could easily get a 2/14 or 3/18 deal as a solid defender with power. Uribe is also a Type B free agent (Huff is too, but I'm projecting him to definitely come back, so this is less relevant), which gives us the option of offering him arbitration and actually having something to gain from it. So let's do that. If he accepts, great, we've got a stopgap assuming Brandon Crawford continues to progress as planned. If not, we can either try to sign him as a free agent or take the pick if he goes somewhere else. I'd offer him a 1/8 or 2/14 deal, just like Huff. But I don't see Uribe returning; the SS market is atrocious, and he could likely get more money elsewhere. This is probably his last big contract, too.

So what do we do about shortstop? There the three options: fill the position internally, trade for someone, or sign someone. Unfortunately, the FA market is crap; Orlando Cabrera, Nick Punto, Adam Everett, or Cesar Izturis could be had, but cannot hit. Bobby Crosby or Miguel Tejada could be had, but cannot field. Cristian Guzman or Julio Lugo could be had, but cannot hit OR field. That’s the entire viable SS free agent pool with one exception. The trade market is a few guys who are probably too expensive (Bartlett, Drew), won’t be traded (Hardy, Scutaro, probably Brignac and Rodriguez), or suck (Everth Cabrera, Brandon Wood). There’s nothing there. The exception is Jhonny Peralta, who despite having apparently illiterate parents, is a realistic option as a guy who isn't a butcher in the field or with the bat. He's not going to light the world on fire in either area, but he's solid and he could provide 1-2 WAR for not a lot with a small commitment. I think he's returning to Detroit, but we need to pursue this kind of player: cheap, fills a hole, doesn't suck.

My personal plan is kind of crazy, but probably less crazy than thinking Orlando Cabrera is the answer. Move Sanchez to short and call up Brock Bond. Bond has posted an OBP around .400 for the last two seasons, and he's not bad at second from what I've heard. We'd lose defense in two areas, with Sanchez being a good 2B and probably a mediocre-at-best SS, and Bond being a mediocre 2B himself. But with two mediocre fielders comes two players who can provide offensive value.

Of course, this is all silly because Uribe's going to be back on a 2/14 deal and the organization hates Bond.

The rest of the infield is pretty static, with the only non-tender candidate being Mike Fontenot. Considering Fontenot is an adequate fill-in at 2B/SS/3B and is left-handed, he is a better option than Ryan Rohlinger (RHH in a lineup full of 'em) or Emmanuel Burriss (who just can't hit), I think he should stick around, but if they're looking to cut payroll he'd be a good guy to dump. Keeping Ishikawa really does limit the roster's versatility (OR DOES IT?).

Infield:

1B – Huff (re-signed to 1/8 or 2/14 deal, so let’s say $7.5M), 2B –Sanchez ($6M), SS - Uribe (same as Huff, so let's say $7.5M again), 3B – Sandoval ($400K), INF – Fontenot (guessing $1.5M), 1B – Ishikawa ($400K), Renteria’s buyout ($500K), C – Posey ($400K), C – Whiteside ($400K) = $25M, bringing our running total to $87.5M, which is scary.

The outfield is pretty well set as well, having the second-least question marks outside the rotation. Burrell is the only big question, but unless we dump someone's contract, we're just not going to be able to sign him. And with five outfielders already, we don't need to.

Since DeRosa can play the infield, carrying two true first basemen isn't that big a problem. Rowand is an adequate fill-in as a spot starter (and maybe a regular if we could..oh God please...trade DeRosa). But I doubt that. More likely, Ross gets traded and Rowand goes back to center with Torres in right and DeRosa in left. But I also doubt that. Except:

LF – DeRosa ($6M), CF – Torres (guessing $2M), RF – Ross (guessing $6M), OF – Schierholtz ($400K), OF – Rowand ($13.6M) = $28M, bringing the total to a whopping $115.5M.

This is why we can't have nice things. Rowand and Zito are locked up to big contracts and aren't providing enough value - but that's a tired enough line, so let's look at the fact that we've got SEVEN of TWENTY-FIVE players making league minimum. The problem isn't the big contracts - okay, that's a huge problem - it's the fact that we're not filling the roster out with farm system throwaways who do well enough to stay but don't get paid much. Plus, after arbitration raises, the Giants’ committed payroll of $76M jumps up a LOT; we’ve got eight arb-eligible players, most of whom are hitting it for the 2nd or 3rd time. And so we can't have Juan Uribe AND Aubrey Huff (dumping Uribe brings us back down to $108M, which is still too much, but not awful), and definitely not Pat Burrell, without a big jump in payroll or getting rid of some valuable players. Forget about Carl Crawford, too.

Fontenot is the most likely cut, IMO, considering Rohlinger can fill his spot, but he does provide a nice lefty bat that can play the infield, and this is a pretty RH-oriented lineup. Ray is next, but reliable bullpen arms are hard to find, and if Chris Ray is your worst reliever (and he is), you’re doing pretty well. Plus, neither of them are really making enough money to have significant payroll impact. Uribe is the most likely to re-sign if management feels like upping payroll again, and a trade of Cody Ross is probably not that ridiculous given his salary (this puts Rowand back in center and shifts Torres to right). DeRosa and Sanchez would be great to move, considering Rowand is probably as good as DeRosa overall, and Sanchez can be replaced by Fontenot or Bond without a considerable loss in production, but I'm skeptical of the ability to just dump their salaries, and Sanchez just isn't getting traded.

Unfortunately, the rotation is the big hit here, and it’s only going to get worse in 2012, as Tim will be bumped into the $15M+ range, Cain is already set to be making $15M, Zito’s deal is getting uglier, and Sanchez is eligible for the third time. The Giants will probably be spending at least $50M, closer to $60M, on just the rotation in 2012. Then you've got Rowand's contract and dear God; 75% of our payroll is locked up in six players. If this team wants to retain its core, we’re going to need some serious production from the farm system or some very team-friendly deals or a big increase in payroll. Now, the Giants probably could support the kind of payroll that would keep us in contention for the next half-decade, but they haven't shown the desire to spend much in the past, and even with new management I don't want to assume it will show up all of a sudden.

Luckily, I'm probably overestimating a lot of salaries. Uribe and Huff returning is very feasible, though adding Burrell as well seems like a pipe dream unless it's on a very team-friendly deal. All in all, I'd expect the roster's only significant changes to be DeRosa instead of Burrell in left, and considering we're retaining most of the team that won a championship this year, that's not bad. Now it's time for everyone to mock me for rosterbating already.

It occurred to me today that Madison Bumgarner is kind of awesome with the pitching and whatnot. And perhaps we should look that this, because it's really been criminally neglected. The last time we had done so, at least that I can find, was July 7th, in a small paragraph. And last night, Mr. Bumgarner threw seven shutout innings, striking out nine and walking none, and the postgame thread managed to mention only this:

Madison Bumgarner with two hits in the same inning

which was also pretty awesome, but still. Let's consider:

3.06 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 3.16 K/BB, 6.71 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, 44.7% GB%, 1.8 WAR, 90.9 average FB velocity (he's fine), as a 21 freakin' year old rookie. His half of this Rotographs article is also quite nice. He's ours, and he's ours for a while, so let's not lose him in the rest of that awesome pitching staff, or let his batterymate Jesus's stellar rookie season overshadow his, because otherwise...

Dun dun DUN DUN DUN DUN!

Discuss.

*Also overlooked: Juan Uribe and his 22 home runs while Pablo can't hit, Renteria quietly not sucking so much, Brian Sabean having a pretty damned fine season.

Manny Ramirez has been placed on waivers by the Dodgers, and it looks like the only teams that want to claim him are AL squads, particularly the Rays, Rangers, and White Sox. This is likely because of Manny's declining defense, and is totally understandable. But the Giants shouldn't pass up this opportunity to help them now and in the future by claiming Ramirez on waivers. If they do so, essentially two situations are possible:

1. They get him. Ramirez is still a damned good hitter, even if he can't play the outfield anymore. We're already overcrowded, but acquiring Ramirez would make Guillen totally unnecessary and hopefully result in a DFA. However, we shouldn't pursue this option too vigorously, offering only a mediocre prospect or nothing in return for Ramirez, both because we'd probably end up paying his salary and because we don't really need him.

2. They don't get him. As weird as this sounds, this is actually the preferable (and more likely) option. The Giants don't need Ramirez, they probably would have problems paying his salary, and the Dodgers likely want real prospects in return. Plus, they aren't likely to trade him within the division, and I doubt the Giants offer him the extension he wants to waive his NTC. But considering his only suitors are in the AL, it's unlikely that blocking a Ramirez trade would result in a diminishing of the Giants' playoff chances; in fact, keeping him in LA would probably hurt their odds, and only help if they made the World Series.

However, I think there's an argument to be made for blocking a Ramirez trade not to another team, but out of Los Angeles. Ramirez is the best available upgrade, and would be a significant asset to an AL team that could DH him. It therefore stands to reason that the buying team would part with a legitimate prospect or two to acquire him; in other words, a player that could make the Dodgers better in the future. Given that the Giants have to contend with the Dodgers for a playoff spot probably forever, forcing LA to hold on to a player that won't help them now or in the future instead of allowing them to acquire a player (or players) that may help them in the future seems like a pretty good move. And the absolute worst case scenarios aren't that bad; if the Dodgers just let Ramirez go, the Giants have an overqualified, overpaid pinch-hitter, and if he isn't worth any prospects and goes to an AL team for nothing, the Giants would prevent LA from obtaining salary relief.

IMO, the reward outweighs the risk here pretty considerably. It'd be nice to see the Giants make a solid chess move like this, considering it would be done with more than just this season in mind, and show an appreciation for the value of minor league players. Of course, that means they won't.

This past offseason, the Giants have made a couple of decidedly mediocre maneuvers to try and improve one of the worst offenses in the major leagues. Success came in 2009 on the backs of great pitching and a solid defense and despite ranking at or near the bottom in most offensive categories. The additions of Aubrey Huff over Travis Ishikawa, Mark DeRosa over Randy Winn, and Freddy Sanchez over Emmanuel Burriss are all, at the very least, lateral moves with upside. However, with the offensive upgrade, the Giants have sacrificed some of the key components of a defense that posted a team UZR of 51.2 in 2009, good for fourth in the major leagues. Combining this excellent defense with one of the deepest and best pitching staffs and a little luck led to a significant improvement over 2008, and one might wonder if the defensive downgrade will cost as much as the offensive upgrade returns.

The Opening Day lineup last year included Ishikawa and Winn, two players who contributed very little offensively and quite a bit defensively. In their stead are Huff and DeRosa, almost assuredly offensive upgrades and defensive question marks. While DeRosa’s outfield ratings are good, they do have small sample size issues attached; he’s only spent 412 innings in left field, presumably his primary position in 2010, and about 1600 innings total in the outfield (spread over nine seasons, which doesn’t help the credibility factor), about half of what’s recommended to be able to form an accurate assessment of a player’s defensive ability. He’s on more stable footing at second (2236 innings) and third (2408 innings), but is below average at both positions. Shortstop and first base suffer from an extremely limited sample size, but again DeRosa is below average at both positions. While possibly a valuable defender in the outfield, DeRosa is a liability in the infield, and he does stand to get multiple starts there with the glut of outfielders the Giants have and his positional versatility.

Aubrey Huff, meanwhile, will almost certainly not perform as well as Travis Ishikawa with the glove, considering he has been a DH for much of his career. But he’s a good bet to be at least as good for six times the price (copyright Brian Sabean) offensively. On paper, however, it looks like the runs Winn and Ishikawa stole on the field and gave back at the plate will now be the same runs DeRosa and Huff steal with the bat and give back with the glove. So where’s the upgrade?

Here’s where we get subjective, and ironically enough, subjectivity is the problem. I simply don’t think that any defensive metric is accurate enough to represent the true value of a fielder. UZR, fielding percentage, some third metric, none of them are devoid of observer bias. Certainly UZR is the best stat we have for measuring a player’s defensive skill, but even that has a five-run margin for error (and certainly the potential for more).

Perhaps it’s because I don’t understand UZR all that well, but there’s a big part of me that doesn’t trust it. The subjectivity of the metric (and subjectivity is why I’m not even going to talk about fielding percentage, because that’s just ridiculous) compared to stats like batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage on the hitting side just make me skeptical. If I see a guy like Nick Johnson, I know he’s going to get on base 40% of the time. Ichiro is going to get a hit one-third of the time. These are rock-solid facts that I can count on (if they still hold water once luck is accounted for) because there is no room for interpretation: the hitter either got a hit or he didn’t. I don’t have to temper every stat citation with a disclaimer that says “Stat may be unreliable and thus relatively meaningless”. I can look at Freddy Sanchez’ ridiculous +19 2006 and say that he had an equally ridiculous .364 BABIP (40 points above his career average) and 27.5% LD% (3% above his career average) so I wouldn’t expect him to repeat that performance, and I can say the opposite about his -17.2 2008. But when he posts a +14.2 mark defensively (2005) in his first full season, I don’t really know where that came from, and I don’t know if I should expect it to continue. His subsequent seasons of 6.3, 9.2, -1.8, and 7.4 seem so wildly erratic, it’s hard to have faith in UZR; I understand why you might have an up or down year if your BABIP is fluctuating, but shouldn’t you be more or less the same defensively year-to-year? Certainly a general decline is expected, but looking at Sanchez’ numbers, I’m not sure it’s possible to predict a player defensively unless they’ve posted multiple consecutive seasons in the same general territory.

And that right there is why I think the Giants’ decision to trade some defense for some offense is a good one: offense can be predictable, while defense really can’t, and offense can be evaluated with a fair degree of certainty, and I don’t think the same can be said of defense. Maybe Huff is a +10 defender this year, Renteria goes +5, and Sanchez and DeRosa are both in negative territory. Combined with the strikeout nature of the staff (tops in the majors in K’s last year), I’ll trade unreliable defense for reliable offense any day. Of course, it’s arguable whether Huff, etc. provide reliable offense, but the overall point seems valid.