When it comes to ranking the OFers in the Sox farm system, the names that come to mind are: Ryan Westmoreland, Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish, some OTMers will think about Reymond Fuentes but most of us will forget about who is IMO, the 2nd best OF prospect in the system in term of ceiling, his name is Che-Hsuan Lin. so why's Lin's name doesn't come to mind when we're ranking the prospects this year?  I think that some of us look to his .260/.351/.361 line and think of him as a non-elite prospect . Well, we're wrong!

I'll try in this post to show how great this kid is and why you should mention him in the same breath as Kalish and Reddick (Westy on the other hand lives on the planet of awesomeness).

First of all, when it comes to evaluate prospects, the slush line avg/OBP/SLG doesn't count that much, let me show you why:

Player A: .229/.311/.363 at age 20 in A+

Player B : .248/.343/.391 at age 20 in A+

Player C: .397/.475/.574 at age 20 in his sophomore year in college

Player A is Carlos Beltran, Player B is Mike Camroun and player C is Brett Gardner. As you can see the triple line doesn't give an indication of what the prospect would become, what's important is:

• Age advancement
• Tools
• Progress

Age advancement:

Let's compare Lin's age to his competition.

• In 2008 season, he was 19 years old in the South Atlantic League (average age 21.5).
  
• In 2009, he was 20 years old in the Carolina League (average age 22.8).
  
• In 2010, he will be 21 years old in the Eastern League (average age 24.3). 

You can notice, looking at those numbers, that not only he's well ahead on the age advancement scale but he's also increasing the age difference year after year.

Tools:

Unlike Kalish and Reddick, Lin projects to remain as a center fielder, so let's start by speaking about his defense:

Defense: Here's what Soxprospects.com has to say about his defense:

Exceptional glove and range in center to go along with plus plus arm strength and accuracy. One teammate commented positively on Lin's range, stating that it looks like Lin is "gliding on roller skates" in the outfield.

He was elected by the Red Sox as the 2008 minor league defensive player of the year so what we have here is elite fielder at a premium defensive position and here's the numbers: TotalZone gives him 14 Runs/150 which rates as very good to outstanding.

The arm: He's considered to have the best arm in the system and here's what his manager has to say:

Salem manager Chad Epperson called Lin's throwing ability "a luxury."

 

"He's capable of impacting a game in so many ways," Epperson said. "You watch center fielders and most of the time they're guys who get a good jump off the bat, good runners who are able to close gaps a hair above average.

 

"But you don't see them possess the ammo he does with his arm. And he loves to show it off. He's spun around on just the back foot alone and thrown with accuracy."

I will add that Che-Hsuan Lin led Carolina League outfielders with 15 assists and seven double plays. The closest competition is Frederick's Matt Angle and Myrtle Beach's Jason Heyward, with nine assists each. Several outfielders are tied for second with two double plays.

The speed and athleticism: SP.com consider him as a "spectacularly athletic centerfielder likely would have been a supplemental first round pick in the 2007 draft had he been eligible" with a "plus plus speed and good intelligence on the base paths". He stole 26 base this year but his success rate was around 70% compared to last year 82.5%success rate.

Plate discipline ;Lin has an extremely advanced approach at the plate. He walks at a good clip (12% BB rate) and he doesn't strike out very often (13.4 K rate) His BB/K rate (0.88) was the third highest amongst sox players in full season ball. In fact, his BB/K rate was the 5th highest in the Carolina league.

Hitting abilities: Here's some scouting reports that I gathered about his hitting abilities " Lin can drive balls and he's got a compact and fluid swing that generates good speed to the point of contact" He has shown an ability to hit line drives at a healthy clip: 21.4% this year.

Progress:

Lin is showing a terrific improvement in his strike zone judgment shown by his K and BB ratios:

In 2007 his BB% was 8.7%, 10.4% in 2008 and an outstanding 12% in 2009!

His K rate has been declining trough those years too: 20.8% in 2007, 14.9% in 2008 and 13.4% in 2009. I

think it's clear that's what we call progress!

In terms of hitting the ball, his declining GB% (47% this year after 53% last year) and increasing LD% (at 21% this year,which is elite to 15% last year) are showing a developing hitting skills.

Here's what Chris Mellen from Soxprospects.com has to say about those improvements:

Early in his career, he didn't handle off-speed pitches all that well, but that has seemed to be improving each season and he worked the strike zone much better last season.

 

He's improved his pitch recognition and approach a lot during his time in the organization because it was pretty raw during his first season. Lin's a hitter that has a little more maintenance in his mechanics and that is where he can sharpen things more, and in the process improve the consistency in squaring balls up.

Just before I finish I wanna note that it's been documented that Lin started the season injured (back spasm IIRC) and when you take out his messy April production, you'll have a : .288/.379/.401/.780 - with a 61/55 BB/K ratio.

I have to add that he's been unlucky with his BABIP (.293)  vs his batted ball data and when adjusted his triple line would be: .322/.404/.439.

I hope you take my boy into consideration when you're voting for the Top 15 prospects. He deserve it!

This plan is around pitching and defense: Most of you know that the Mariners made a huge turn this season and from a team with a losing record to one with 85-77, their process? Run prevention!

The M's have the best defense in baseball, they're sporting an 85.5 UZR!! Obviously, this top notch defense helped their pitching staff to lead the AL in ERA, take a look at their starters ERA and compare it with their respective FIP, It's the best way to understand the impact of the fielders:

You can check the rest of the pitchers here, The results are the same: The defense is making the M's pitchers post numbers superior to their true talent level. That's the route that I want my team to take. We know where the problems are: The Red Sox fielders were terrible this year posting a team UZR of -16.3 due in big part to the 2 butchers patrolling center and left field and Mike Lowell defense at 3rd base:

Ellsbury UZR/150: -18.6

Bay UZR/150: -11.2

Lowell UZR/150: -14.4

The Lineup:

First step would be to ship Lowell to a team looking for a 3rd baseman (Phillies did like him) and eating a portion of his salary for a mid level prospect like Trevor May. If he can't play third, we could ship him with cash to the Mets to be their 1st baseman and receive a prospect like Jeurys Familia. After that, I would like the FO to sign Adrian Beltre to a 3 years 7 millions/year deal so we could bring his superior defense to Fenway, his bat should be fine too when he leaves the cavernous Safeco Field (Check out this if you don't believe me).

For LF, I would like the team to sign Matt Holliday but not at a steep price: A 6 years at 18 millions/year should be the final offer! If another team wants to pay more (which I think they will), let them have him. And let's sign Mike Cameron to a one year deal at 10 millions to play CF and shift Ellsbury to LF where he plays some terrific defense.

Catcher: Victor Martinez

1st baseman: Kevin Youkilis UZR/150  15.2

2nd baseman: Dustin Pedroia UZR/150 10.6

Short Stop: Jed Lowrie UZR/150 32.0 (Small sample size but you got the idea that bs.uf's boy is a solid defender)

3rd Baseman: Adrian Beltre UZR/150 21.0 (I told you he's amazing with the leather!)

Left Fielder: Jacoby Ellsbury UZR/150 30.3 (Those are 2008 numbers where he played 58 games, obviously those numbers will regress but he'll remain a solid fielder like Crawford)

Center Fielder: Mike Cameron UZR/150 10.3

Right Fielder: JD Drew UZR/150 15.7

That's a stellar defensive team that will prevent a LOT of runs and will keep the payroll at the previous years level: So we can let the kids (Kalish and Reddick) continue their learning process in AAA and we could go after the big fish (You know who I'm talking about right?) next season after unloading all the bad contracts.

Starting Pitchers:

I would like to make a trade with the Marlins for Ricky Nolasco, now I know that their long term deal negotiation with Josh Johnson have come to an end but the price should be VERY high and I don't want to drain the whole farm for a pitcher with a TJ surgery in his resume. Nolasco on the other hand is an awesome pitcher who's high ERA (5.06) don't tell his true value (3.35 FIP) because of bad luck  and fielding ( acoording to UZR, the Marlins are the 3rd worst fielding team in the NL which led to BABIP as high as .336) which should drive his price down: I think that a Kotchman/Kelly package could get the deal done.

Imagine a rotation of Beckett/ Lester/ Buckhholz/ Matsuzaka and Nolasco (with Wakefield) playing in front of the best defensive team in baseball!!!! You have evreything you want in it: Youth, depth and cost control, plus you have Tazawa and Bowden waiting in the wings.

To restock the farm and replace the Kelly "loss", I would like that our FO signs Noel Arguelles who defected with Aroldis Chapman and who came in at No. 10 on Keith Law's list of the top 50 FAs:

Arguelles is 19 and already pitches with a solid-average fastball, although before he defected he had worked as high as 91-94 and will probably return there once he's throwing on a regular schedule again. His changeup projects better than his curveball, with the change a potentially plus pitch. What everyone notices about Arguelles is his body -- loose, lean, athletic, with good projection.

If he was an American high school or junior college player, he'd be a solid first-rounder with a chance to be a top-10 guy and would probably be a $4 million bonus baby. As a free agent, he should easily double that

Bullpen:

I would like to take a flyer in signing Kelvim Escobar as low risk-high reward kind of deal and promoting Dustin Richardson.

Bench:

I would like to make a trade with the D'Backs for Connor Jackson (If they choose to tender him), who could play LF and 1st base and kill LHPs in the process: A Doubront/Lentz can get the deal done.

As an utility infielder, I would like to sign Gonzalez to a one-year deal, if not I would love having Omar Vizquel or Adam Everett.

That's my plan, any thoughts?

First of all let me put this straight: I'm just exploring the Red Sox other options if they don't succeed to resign Bay or land Holiday, a plan B if you will.

This plan B has to be Financially sound AND compensate the loss of power that the departure of Jay Bay will generate by a tighter defense and a similar OBP.

I tried to look at Fukudome at the 3 aspects of the game: Hitting, fielding and running. So let's try to break this baby down:

Hitting:

Let's give a look at Kosuke's (I love those Nippon names) line versus RHP: .270/.387/.828 with a sexy .91 BB/K ratio!

But considering that 2 seasons is a relatively small sample size, let's forget about the results (the avg/OBP/OPS) and focus on the process: plate discipline/batted balls/Isolated power.

When you look deeper into those numbers, you'll be impressed by his plate discipline: He swings at 17.8% at pitches out of the zone, that's almost JD Drew-like plate discipline (15.3% O-Swing%). And how 'bout them batted balls? Again, the numbers are impressive: 24% LD (4th in MLB) 46.2% GB and 30% FB.

The power is nothing to write home about (I love those expressions you have in English) but decent at .142 ISO.

So to recapitulate: You have a hitter who ks as much as he walks (excellent Plate discipline), hits a lot line drives and has a decent power. that's a good to very good hitter.

Base running:

Fangraph's speed score (a 4 component metric) gives Fukodome  an above avg Spd at 4.5 almost the same score averaged by JD Drew (a good base runner) during his 3 years as a Red Sock.

Fielding:

DD mentioned that Fukodome was worth 4.2 WAR in his 2 seasons, that's not very good but when you look deeper into those numbers you'll find out that: His 2009 2.4 WAR is the result of bad fielding (-2.0 UZR) not his batting: So he's a bad fielder? No, not in the corner OF where he's 18.0 career UZR in 181 games. But this year, due to the Milton bradley signing, he's been confined to CF duties.

So he's a glove upgrade compared to Bay.

I'll end up this with an other post of the honorable Dave Camron about Fukodome San. I hope I added another option worth exploring. Because I think that a Jackson or Kapler/Fukudome platoon in LF is a good (maybe not great) option until the talent in minors flourish or another option (The rays moving Upton or Texas trading Cruz) present it self. 

Our friend bloodysock04 had the platooning idea that I found interesting, I've done some research to find an ideal combo with of course, the salary consideration and the defense and look what I found:

   When it comes to defense Kapler/Fukudome are a huge upgrade compared to the butcher from Trail, BC: Fukudome UZR when playing in the corner OF (although he's mainly used in CF where he ain't good) is 8.0 and Kapler UZR is 6.2! It's day and night I said :)

Ok, now we know that Fukudome is still under contract for 2 more years at $ 13 millions in 2010 and $ 13.5 millions for 2011 so a trade has to be made with the Cubbies: IMO a package around Bowden, an Illinois native FWIW, could swing that deal for Jim Hendry: He's looking for payroll relief (their payroll is very high at $134,809 Millions) and they need some arms in the rotation and the BP (Delcarmen?).

Kapler could come cheap (1-2 millions range) so you'll have a LFer with better defense, less power but who Ks less and put basically the same OBP numbers for a short commitment (1 and 2 years respectively).

Add to that, that we'll be fixing the need for the bench/4th OFer due to the departure of Rocco Baldelli for basically the price tag that comes with Bay resigning!!

Thoughts? And what package it would take in your opinion to have an extended Japanese connection in Boston?

The Arizona Fall League this year should have a particular interest from the Red Sox faithful. Why? Let me put it in 3 words: The beginning of Jose Iglesias (OK that was 5 words but you got the picture).

Jose Iglesias was presented to us as a finished product as fielder and a work in progress as a hitter, I for one was against the signing because of the enormous signing bonus (6.25 millions), since then I kept receiving good reports about the 19 years old defensive wizard and how his bat is not that bad. Today was an occasion to see what Jose has in the batter box as the Mesa Solar Sox faced The Phoenix Desert Dogs.

Ryan kalish: 1-4 with a Sac Fly (This tournament is very important for Kalish to earn an invitation to ST next year, he needs to show up that his superb second half in AA ball was no fluke: A solid performance here and he may start next season in Pawtucket)

Randor Bierd: 3 IP, 0 hits, 0 runs, 1 BB and 1 K: Not very dominant but you have to like those ground balls (4) and infield fly balls(3)

Chris Province: 1 IP 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 BB, 1 K : Solid.

Dustin Richardson: 2 IP, 1 hit, 0 runs 0 BB and 3 Ks (He entered the game in the 6th innings with 2 on and 0 outs...and he was dominant: he struck out the first 2 batters and induced a ground ball to end the inning, the next inning he k'd the first batter, allowed an infield single and induced 3 others ground balls to end the 8th inning: If he keeps pitching like that, he will certainly have a shot at making himself a spot in the BP next year!)

Jose Iglesias: 2-4, 2B and a BB ( It's a very good professional debut and even the 2 outs were on a line drive to the pitcher and an opposite field flyball)

 

So what's on Theo's list for the coming off season?

• Signing Jayson Bay to an extension at the right price
  
• Finding a SS (Drew, Hardy or Gonzalez) in case Lowrie doesn't fully heal.
  
• A fifth starter: I would love to have Wake back but when you see his injuries record the past 3 years, you might think that he's an unreliable option and Hey! you never have enough pitching! 
• The backup Catcher situation: Will Tek be back?
  

For Bay case, I think that the Sox FO have already fixed a price tag for him and they will let him walk if they are outbid by another team: It looks to me that this team will be the Giants who are one big bat away from contending in the weak NL West. So what are the Sox other options? One name come immediately to mind: Matt Holliday and his superb 5.5 WAR but there's some points that makes skeptical about this signing:

1. He's a Boras client: He'll ask for a huge contract in terms of money and years and Theo doesn't like dealing with him (It's an impression that I have, not a fact) especially after the Texeira debacle.  
2. His defense is declining at an alarming pace (UZR 07: 14.2 08: 9.1 and 09: 3.9)
3. The MFY will be looking for a LFer after clearing up some space in their payroll: Matsui and Damon gone.

So let's say No Bay and No Holliday, what are the other options?

• Internal options? Kalish and Reddick are not ready yet, they need more seasoning in AAA
• Trade? I would love to have Connor Jackson from Arizona but with his sickness and his struggle versus RH pitching make this deal hypothetical.
• What about Carlos Beltran? The Mets could be front runners in the Holliday chase if they can clear up some payroll and there's this dumb impression in their fan base that he doesn't play the game to win so maybe we can trade for him to play CF and move Taco to LF (where he plays above avg defense). I Know it's a wishful thinking but if the Sox go after him aggressively, a deal could be done. 

The SS situation, I would love to have a fully healthy Lowrie and Gonzalez in a utility infielder role but if he's not fully healthy, we should pursue JJ Hardy and wait to see what Jose Iglesias can do with the bat.

For the 5th starter situation, I have a simple answer: RICH HARDEN because it's one of those low risk-high reward deals that Theo's loves to make, plus I'm a big believer in the shoulder program that the Sox have, you could ask Brad Penny about it!

For the catcher situation, I don't think that V-Mart could play a full season at the catcher position and I think Tek will be back for the final year of his career but if he's not back, there's some good options and here's my 3 favorites:

• Trade for Suzuki: Remember that the Sox were very high on him and they were hesitant which one to draft between him and Pedroia.
  
• Sign Bengie Molina as a FA: he will not be back to SF now that Posey is taking over, although I think that the Mets are the front runners.
  
• Promote Mark Wagner from AAA: He still needs some seasoning in Pawtucket but the defensive skills are ML ready.
  

Thoughts?

Instead of evaluating the whole pitching staff performance through September, I thought it may be more accurate to evaluate what the 4 starting pitchers have performed against the competition.

John Lester

Before going to Lester's September, I've made this tab to show you how good he was this year even by his last year's standards:

• Although the ERA is up, the other peripheral shows that Lester has been unlucky which he wasn't last year.
• Lester has lowered his FIP despite the fact that he gave up more HRs this year (HR/9 is .91 to last year .60) by substantially increasing his strikeouts numbers.

Now, if we look into September numbers, we'll find out that despite his last 2 outings in Baltimore and NY, John Lester has been equal to his 2009 (high) standards by posting a: 3.07 ERA and 3.77 FIP. The increase in FIP is due to an increased home run per fly ball rate during that span (17.4% HR/FB, a number unlikely to be reproduced if you consider Lester's 9% career rate), so apparently everything looks fine? No, not completely!

When you consider Lester's 2 last outing, he's been hit hard 31.4% of his batted balls have been line drives and 42.9% of the fly balls have been turned into HRs: The causes of that "mini slump" maybe multiple although the fatigue factor is certainly not the only explanation (he's still, at 197 IP, under his 2008 210.1 IP mark). But, as he showed us after his horrific season debut, he's very capable of rebounding and storming into October in the fashion that we know he can!

Josh Beckett

A look at September stats could confirm that his 5 games slump is over! Beckett has been sporting a 2.93 FIP to go with 3.66 ERA, a look at his last two outings shows us that he's even heating up at the right time by 3.21 ERA with a dominant 2.23 FIP.

A look at the batted balls in his last 2 outings shows us that when he's not striking out hitters, Beckett is giving them weak contact:

LD% 17%

GB% 48.9%

Although his BABIP is very high at .414, we can conclude that with better luck Beckett could turn into the asset that the nation has been accustomed to.

Clay Buchholz

Despite his awful Start against Toronto (who inflated his FIP), Clay has been arguably the best pitcher in the team with a 2.87 ERA and 51.7 GB% (which could explain his low BABIP) and a team second best 2.15 BB/9.

The 6 HRs game should not be concerning mainly because Buchholz , unlike Brad Penny, is not a fly ball pitcher as his Batted Ball charts shows:

Let's see if in his final start, Clay could rebound after being roughed up by the Jays which is very probable because all the facts mentioned above tend to show that Tuesday's game was an isolated event.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:

In Dice-K case, the numbers, as usual, are unconventional: take a look at the disparity between his ERA and his FIP

But we have to consider that the sample size is very small to predict further performances', although we could make the case that this is vintage 2008 Matsuzaka and I would definitely take that from my number 4 starter.

Conclusion:

Like this guy, I think that if every member of this pitching staff performs at their season standards, this team is tough to beat although defense and luck plays a major role in the final stats line.

And as usual, remember what Beane says about the playoffs!