SB Nation User Blog: ragnarok

Pac-10 Basketball Looks Thoroughly Mediocre This Year

ragnarok — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 03:43:01 -0000

by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Is this the Pac-10's signature win so far this season?

Quick, can you name the marquee non-conference win by a Pac-10 team so far this basketball season? No?

That's because there isn't one.

In fact, looking for a 'best' win so far by a Pac-10 team (I'm using the term 'best' very loosely here), and you might come up with Cal's season-opening five-point win over Murray State. Murray State? No, that can't be right, can it? Well, since losing at Cal to open the season, Murray State has raced (HA! Get it? "Raced"? Because they're the Racers? What's that, you didn't know that? Oh, some of you had never even heard of Murray State? Oh...) to an 8-1 record. Yes, it's been a nothing schedule, and Tuesday's game at Louisiana Tech may be the toughest remaining game on their slate, but this is poised to being a win the Bears can look to in March with pride, something not many Pac-10 teams have right now.

Through the first half of December, the Pac-10 has been, well, not exactly dreadful, but certainly not good in any sense of the word. Collectively, they've mostly avoided truly embarrassing loses, but at the same time, they've achieved basically zero wins of note. They are firmly the wost of the six BCS conferences, and may not even be as good as 6th overall out of all the conferences. Yes, it's been that bad.

Let's go ahead and take a look at the Pac-10's collective record at this point. Overall, the 10 teams are 50-36, but when we start to break that down, we start to see how thoroughly undistinguished that record is.

To get a better handle on all these teams, I used both Ken Pomeroy's rankings (based on his super-secret formula looking at a number of statistical correlations) and Jeff Sagarin's 'Predictor' ratings (based on margin-of-victory). Generally, these ratings agreed with each other, and most teams were rated by both rankings within about 5-10 places, and no more than 15 that I found, but using both gives me a little more confidence in this analysis. In listing a team's ranking, Pomeroy's ranking is first, followed by Sagarin's, in parentheses.

Generally, we should expect that good teams can beat everyone, mediocre teams can beat bad ones but lose to good ones, and bad teams will lose to most everyone. Well, by that standard, the Pac-10 is the very definition of mediocre.

Pac-10 Non-Conference Record (games through Sunday, December 13)
Overall - 50-36
vs. Top 25 - 0-12
vs. Top 50 - 1-19
vs. Top 100 - 8-31
vs. everyone else - 42-5

With a few exceptions, Pac-10 teams have managed to beat up on (or at least get past) the little guys, but they've been mostly impotent against teams with a pulse. 0-12 vs. Top 25 teams? A losing record is no shame, but getting shut out sure hurts the league's credibility. Worse is the 1-19 mark against the Top 50. That one win? Cal over Murray State (46,49), a team barely in the Top 50. Oy.

Things get a little better with lower-rated teams, but it's still a 7-12 mark vs. teams rated between 51-100, and of those seven wins (Cal @ Pacific (67,74), Cal vs. Iowa State (80,67), Stanford vs. Virginia (98,103), Washington vs. Wright State (88,89), Washington vs. Belmont (75,79), Washington vs. Montana (96,93), and Oregon State @ George Washington (92,97)), none stand out as a basketball power. And the less said about the conference's 2-8 mark (so far) in the Pac-10 / Big 12 Hardwood Series, the better.

With regards to the NCAA tournament, the Pac-10 traditionally tends to be a four-to-six bid league, but at this point, even four sounds like a stretch to me. We might be looking at a three-bid year, and that's provided that three teams can distinguish themselves in conference play. There's a few more chances at the league picking up some marquee wins to help win an at-large bid or two, but on the whole, Pac-10 teams are going to have to stand on their own in front of the selection committee -- they won't be able to draw on their league's strength as in years' past.

Here's how each team stands from this point forward. Good wins are those over teams rated in the Top 100; bad losses are to those to teams outside the Top 100.

California (6-3)
Good Wins: Murray State (46, 49), @Pacific (67, 74), Iowa State (80, 67)
Bad Losses:
Tough Opponents Remaining: @Kansas (2, 4)

Three good (though not great) wins, and three very acceptable losses to teams in the Top 25 (Syracuse, Ohio State and New Mexico have a combined 26-2 record so far) mean the Bears are in (relatively) decent shape so far. Getting a win at Kansas would be HUGE, though it's neither expected nor necessary. Still, Sagarin's Predictor would put the Bears at just a six-point dog in Lawrence right now -- amazingly, his system would actually favor Cal if the game were played in Haas -- so they must be doing something right. Still not enough margin of error to feel complacent heading into conference play, where the Bears will face far more opportunities for bad losses than for good wins.

Stanford (5-3)
Good Wins: Virginia (98, 103)
Bad Losses: @San Diego (142, 132), Oral Roberts (150, 162)
Tough Opponents Remaining: Oklahoma State (55, 50), @Northwestern (63, 77), @Texas Tech (45, 44)

Plenty of juice left on the Cardinal's schedule, though it's going to take more than one good win to balance out the shame of losing at home to Oral Roberts. Hanging tough with Kentucky was a surprise, but college basketball is neither horseshoes nor hand grenades. Stanford has plenty of work to do if they want to get to any kind of tournament this year.

UCLA (2-6)
Good Wins:
Bad Losses: Cal St. Fullerton (219, 220)
Tough Opponents Remaining: @Notre Dame (95, 88)

We all knew the Bruins would take a step back this year, considering all the talent they lost to the NBA and graduation, but losing at home to Cal State - Fullerton?!?? For the most part, the rest of their losses have been at least respectable (well, the opponents have been, if not their performances), but considering they lost both ends of a tournament in their own backyard (Anaheim) and have yet to either leave Southern California or beat an opponent in the Top 200, one can understand how Bruins fans might be in panic mode just a year and a half removed from their third consecutive Final Four appearance. At some point, UCLA is going to have to start winning games, and a visit to Notre Dame (their first trip this year not on a bus) this Saturday would be an advisable place to start.

USC (4-4)
Good Wins:
Bad Losses: Loyola Marymount (151, 146)
Tough Opponents Remaining: Tennessee (8, 5), *UNLV (89, 81), *St. Mary's (15, 12)

USC's overall record is better than UCLA's, but that may have more to do with their light scheduling -- they've beaten no one of note and lost to Loyola Marymount at home. The Tennessee Volunteers come to town on Saturday, and the Trojans might get a couple of good opponents at the Diamond Head Classic in Hawai'i. Without beating at least a couple of those teams, the Trojans may very well have to repeat their feat from last year -- winning the Pac-10 Tournament and its automatic bid to the NCAAs.

Washington State (8-2)
Good Wins:
Bad Losses:
Tough Opponents Remaining:

Talk about unremarkable -- Wazzu has managed to get 10 games into their schedule without putting a single mark on their résumé. No shame in losing at Gonzaga or Kansas State, but at some point, the NCAA tournament committee does expect at-large teams to beat someone with a pulse.

Washington (6-2)
Good Wins: Wright State (88, 89), Belmont (75, 79), Montana (96, 93)
Bad Losses:
Tough Opponents Remaining: Texas A&M (41, 33), Portland (84, 99)

Other than Cal, Washington is probably in the best shape in the Pac-10, and considering their best wins are at home over Wright State, Belmont and Montana, that's not saying much. The losses (neutral floor vs. Georgetown, in overtime at Texas Tech) are both acceptable, but like the Bears, the Huskies are still searching for a win that they can really hang their hat on.

Oregon (4-4)
Good Wins:
Bad Losses:
Tough Opponents Remaining:

A résumé as ordinary as Washington State's, though a 4-4 record isn't a great start, especially with a couple of those losses coming at home. Losing to Montana at home might not be the worst thing in the world, but it's certainly not great. Like the Cougars, the Ducks will have to wait for conference play to make a mark, and they're really going to have to get it done within the league if they want a postseason bid.

Oregon State (4-4)
Good Wins: @George Washington (92, 97)
Bad Losses: Sacramento State (281, 280)
Tough Opponents Remaining:

Winning at George Washington? That's good! Losing at home to Sacramento State? That's bad. Terrible, in fact. The worst loss suffered by a Pac-10 team so far, and that's saying something. The fightin' Craig Robinsons have a bit of work to do if they want to make something of this season.

Arizona State (7-3)
Good Wins:
Bad Losses:
Tough Opponents Remaining: San Diego State (32, 28)

ASU is another team without a good or bad mark to their name so far. Losses to Duke and BYU are totally acceptable, Baylor at home a little less so, but once again, you're eventually going to get a good win on the docket, and San Diego State next Saturday is the last shot they've got before they host Washington in January.

Arizona (4-5)
Good Wins:
Bad Losses:
Tough Opponents Remaining: Brigham Young (14, 14), North Carolina State (73, 76)

Arizona has played its typical bruising non-conference schedule, but usually they manage to get a win or two out of that. So far this year? Not so much. Their best win so far? Take your pick between Louisiana Tech at home or Colorado on a neutral court in overtime. I'm not impressed, and neither will be the selection committee.

Poll

How many teams will the Pac-10 get into the NCAA tournament?

CGB Top 25 - Week 14

ragnarok — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 07:49:15 -0000

I'll admit it -- I was too depressed after watching Cal embarrass themselves in Washington, so I didn't even bother to watch the Big XII Title Game. I just couldn't make myself care. Apparently I missed a 13-12 barnburner. Woo.

This is our best guess at a Top 25. If you disagree with our judgment, tell us why we're wrong and we'll consider making some correction. Try getting that sort of commitment from the BCS, will ya?

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama
2	TCU
3	Cincinnati	2
4	Texas	1
5	Florida	1

Cincy barely survives at Pitt, but leaps over Texas anyway. In my opinion, their résumés are very close. Hard to differentiate. However, I do know of one reliable way to determine which team is better. It's called a playoff. For my own part, I'm planning on skipping the BCS this January and paying attention to college basketball instead. Except perhaps the Fiesta Bowl. That one sounds fun.

6	Boise State
7	Oregon
8	Georgia Tech	3
9	Ohio State	1
10	Iowa	2

I have no idea what happened over the past seven days that caused Iowa to jump Virginia Tech. Georgia Tech wins back the three spots it lost last weekend by dumping Clemson for the second time this season. Good for them. Ohio State has a pretty good record, but that loss to Purdue is the difference between them and the Yellow Jackets.

11	Virginia Tech	1
12	Oregon State	3
13	Miami (Florida)
14	Brigham Young
15	Arizona	8

I can't imagine that anyone who watched the Civil War thought less of Oregon State after they narrowly lost a rivalry game against a Top 10 team on the road. They really shouldn't have dropped at all, let alone three spots. Arizona probably moved up too much after winning at USC, but have LSU or West Virginia really been more impressive than them?

16	LSU	4
17	West Virginia	7
18	Penn State	1
19	Pittsburgh	3
20	Stanford	3

I'll repeat this, because no one else seems to be listening -- Penn State has two wins over winning teams: Northwestern and Temple. Last-second loss at Wake Forest or no, how can you have Stanford below the Nittany Lions? Pitt beat four winning teams this year, while West Virginia beat five. UConn and Rutgers may not be powerhouses, but they're at least comparable to Northwestern.

Last week's ballot
21	Oklahoma State	4
22	Nebraska
23	Central Michigan
24	Oklahoma
25	Southern Cal	10

USC finishes a thoroughly disappointing regular season by losing at home to Arizona; honestly, they're lucky to still be ranked. The Big XII checks in with three teams down here, and between them they beat Missouri twice, Georgia once, and little else of note. Finally, welcome back to Central Michigan, who finish a nice 11-2 season by winning the MAC -- and nothing else. Seriously, their three wins this year over winning teams were against 7-5 Bowling Green, 7-5 Northern Illinois, and 9-3 Ohio, who themselves can only boast of Ohio's win over Temple or Bowling Green's victory over Troy. 11 wins is a nice figure, but there ain't much backing up the Chippewas.

Dropped Out: California (#18), Houston (#21).

Houston may have been a mid-major darling back in September, but by December, they've failed to even win a middling Conference-USA. 10-3 is a nice season, but in the end, it's not quite nice enough.

Poll

It's hard to argue that Alabama doesn't have the most impressive résumé this year. But who should get to face them in the Mythical National Championship Game?

CGB Top 25 - Week 13

ragnarok — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 06:59:12 -0000

What we're facing here is the very real possibility that Division I-A football could finish its regular season with five undefeated teams. Five. To all those advocating for a 'plus-one' model, essentially a four-team playoff, well, I hope this season convinces you that any playoff consisting of fewer than eight teams is destined to fail. Personally, anything that breaks the BCS is a good thing, and I'm hoping for more chaos in the future.

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama	2
2	TCU	1
3	Texas	1
4	Florida
5	Cincinnati

Not much change at the top. The move by Alabama to the top of our poll has nothing to do with last week's events (both Texas and 'Bama barely survived in rivalry games, while Florida beat down a clearly inferior Florida State and TCU proved nothing in blowing out New Mexico). Instead, an Alabama fan last week convinced me, on the basis of strength of schedule, to move the Tide ahead of Texas, and just such a tiny change was enough to move Alabama above both Texas and TCU.

6	Boise State
7	Oregon	1
8	Ohio State	2
9	Oregon State	2
10	Virginia Tech	4

With Pitt and Georgia Tech being upset last weekend, everyone else gets to move up. It's interesting that, beyond the six undefeated teams, there isn't a single one-loss team in division I-A, which is why two-loss Oregon and Ohio State follow close on Boise's heels.

11	Georgia Tech	4
12	Iowa
13	Miami (Florida)	3
14	Brigham Young	6
15	Southern Cal

At this point in the season, it's hard to drop Georgia Tech too far for being upset; after all, Iowa lost to Northwestern, Miami to North Carolina, BYU to Florida State, USC to Washington. It happens to just about everyone; it's important not to penalize GT too much for having the audacity to be upset during the last weekend in November.

16	Pittsburgh	7
17	Stanford	6
18	California
19	Penn State
20	LSU	4

Stanford probably gets too much credit for their win over Notre Dame, but perhaps they dropped too far last week. Their pair of wins over Oregon and USC are what are propping them up this high; other than that, it's a fairly ordinary résumé.

Last week's ballot
21	Houston
22	Nebraska
23	Arizona	1
24	West Virginia
25	Oklahoma State	12

Oklahoma State barely hangs on in our rankings after getting shut out by Oklahoma. The Sooners aren't that bad, but the Cowboys aren't that good, apparently, as is the rest of the Big XII.

Dropped Out: North Carolina (#17), Utah (#21), Clemson (#25).

And some lower-ranked teams lost, and dropped out. Whoo. Not a good week for the ACC, with Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina and Florida State all losing and looking bad in doing so.

CGB Top 25 - Week 12

ragnarok — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 07:18:43 -0000

I'm really going to have to explain myself this week.

Yeah, Texas Christian University at #1. Really. All four of the top teams were close (though all four of us had Alabama over Florida), but in the end, both Yellow Fever and I put TCU on top, and that was just enough.

Rank	Team	Delta

1	TCU	2
2	Texas	2
3	Alabama	2
4	Florida	2
5	Cincinnati

But, why TCU? Well, ignoring the natural bias against TCU (face it, even if we hate Texas or Alabama, on the first glace, we're ALWAYS going to regard an undefeated Crimson Tide over an undefeated Horned Frogs team; it's a perfectly natural conditioned reaction, and we should all accept it so we can move forward), if we actually consider what each team has accomplished this year, they're all pretty comparable.

Comparing Texas' record to TCU's we find that although the Longhorn's best win (vs. Oklahoma State) might be better than anything the Horned Frogs have done (though how good the Cowboys really are is still plenty debatable), the rest of Texas' schedule is full of blah. The Big XII is really down this year -- neither Oklahoma nor Texas Tech are really very good, and there's nothing in the Longhorn's non-conference schedule to really recommend them. Meanwhile, not only has TCU dominated the Mountain West, winning going away vs. both BYU and Utah, but they've also got that little forgotten matter of a win at Clemson, something hardly thought of at the time, but more impressive now that the Tigers have locked up a spot in the ACC title game.

But what about Alabama and Florida? Well, what about them? Turns out, their undefeated run through the SEC is really not much more impressive than an undefeated run through the Big XII, or even the Mountain West. Outside of the Gators and the Tide, good as they might be, the SEC collectively has been a huge collection of mediocrity. LSU, owners of zero wins of note, was previously thought to be the next best team, but a loss at Ole Miss (however much you want to blame Les Miles' inability to manage a football game) really shows that they're no better than the Rebels, who themselves are one of the largest disappointments on the season.

In fact, I went through and tallied up all the SEC's collective non-conference record to this point. The 12 teams involved have collectively played a total (TOTAL) of seven non-conference road games. Yes, they went 6-1 in those games (the only loss was Georgia at Oklahoma State), but the conference's only road win over a team with a winning record thus far has been Mississippi State's stirring victory at 8-3 Middle Tennessee State. In contrast, they've played 11 games against I-AA competition (LSU and Tennessee didn't play an FCS school, but Ole Miss partially made up for it by playing TWO of them). Collectively, I count exactly one SEC non-conference win over a Top 25 team, that of Alabama over 8-3 Virginia Tech to open the season, and just two others over BCS-conference schools with winning records (Auburn over 7-3 West Virginia, and Arkansas over 6-5 -- soon to be 6-6 -- Texas A&M). Overall, they have nine victories over teams with winning records. The others six? Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Ohio, Middle Tennessee, and Troy (twice). Woo.

So, how good are Alabama and Florida, really? I have no friggin' clue. They might be great, but they might be just beating up on mediocrity. I can tell you one thing -- playing Chattanooga and Florida International on the third weekend in November sure isn't going to help their cases.

6	Boise State
7	Georgia Tech
8	Oregon	1
9	Pittsburgh	1
10	Ohio State	1

I really, honestly believe Ohio State isn't a Top 10-caliber team, but who else are you going to put up here? Seriously? I'm still a little skeptical of Pitt, too (and the whole Big East in general). Might be great, might be scheduling well.

11	Oregon State	4
12	Iowa	2
13	Oklahoma State	1
14	Virginia Tech	4
15	Southern Cal	1

USC this high is my fault, but I really think their non-conference record should give them some benefit of the doubt regarding their performance of late. In no way is this a vintage Trojans team, true, and previous editions would have been able to plug-and-play through the various injuries they've suffered, but they're still good enough to beat most of the teams below them (Stanford excepted, obviously).

16	Miami (Florida)
17	North Carolina
18	California	5
19	Penn State	2
20	Brigham Young	1

Why do we continue to vote for Penn State? I suspect it's inertia. Ten wins, none of them over anyone remotely impressive. Losses to both Iowa and Ohio State, neither one close. The best argument you can make for them is that they've been able to win when they're supposed to, and I suppose that's something.

Last week's ballot
21	Utah	2
22	Arizona	2
23	Stanford	10
24	LSU	14
25	Clemson	3

LSU is still ranked, but barely. I wanted to eject them entirely, but had trouble finding 25 teams I wanted to include more than them. Arizona up 2 after a loss? Well, a double-OT loss to a Top 10 team is nothing to be ashamed of. Their fan's behaviour at the game? Now that's something else entirely.

Dropped Out: Wisconsin (#20), Houston (#25).

Wisky lost to Northwestern, and is rightly ejected from our poll. Houston, on the other hand, mostly got lost in the shuffle. They're still hanging around in the Top 30, waiting for Clemson or Arizona or someone else to eat it in ignominious fashion.

The Rose Bowl, The Poinsettia Bowl, and Every Pac-10 Bowl Scenario In Between

ragnarok — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 07:35:39 -0000

More photos » by Wily Low - AP

Jeremiah Masoli managed to avoid the same crushing fate as two years ago, leading the Ducks past a rowdy Arizona crowd in late November towards a date with the Rose Bowl. One last hurdle remains, however: Oregon State.

Browse more photos »

The Pac-10's Rose Bowl race, so utterly complicated a couple weeks ago, and with four legitimate contenders still alive going into Saturday, is now dead simple:

Oregon State @ Oregon. The 113th Civil War. Thursday, December 3rd, 6PM. Winner goes to the Rose Bowl. Loser gets, well, it's hard to say what the loser will get. It won't be Roses, however, and that's all that matters.

The rest of the Pac-10? Well, it's a big mess. We could be looking at a four-way tie for second place in the conference, throwing bowl placements entirely at the whims of the various bowl committees. Stanford is finished with its conference schedule at 6-3. If Oregon State loses the Civil War, they'll also finish at 6-3. Cal, USC and Arizona all also have three conferences losses. Cal needs a win at Washington to get to 6-3. USC and Arizona are both sitting at 4-3, and first need a win in their respective rivalry games this weekend before they face off on December 5th. Finally, UCLA, at 6-5 but just 3-5 in the conference, is well behind everyone else and still faces long odds to actually garner a bowl bid of any kind.

Let's run some scenarios, shall we?

Let's say Oregon beats Oregon State...
OK, but what if Oregon wins the Civil War? Now the Ducks are in the Rose, and I'm not sure any other Pac-10 team will even be able to get into the BCS Top 14 to be eligible for at-large selection. Oregon State is the closest in the current BCS standings at 16, but they'll be knocked down by losing at Oregon. USC at 20 and Cal at 22 are next in the Pac-10, and that's a lot of ground to make up, especially for Cal with only one game left, and against a losing team, no less.

...and once again, USC and Cal win out...
Now the Holiday Bowl gets its pick in a four-way tie between Cal, Stanford, USC and Oregon State. To me, this is a no-brainer. With most of their fans already in Southern California and a potent TV audience for any potential matchup, I can't see the Holiday doing anything besides taking USC. The Sun picks next, and I'm pretty sure they shun Oregon State, who went last year, probably in favor of Cal, the only Pac-10 team never to appear in the Sun Bowl during it's nearly 75-year history. This leaves Stanford in the Emerald, Oregon State in the Vegas, and Arizona down in the Poinsettia.

But what if Arizona wins out instead of USC?
Now the Holiday's choice is less straightforward. What criteria do you use to select between a 9-3 Cal, 8-4 Arizona, 8-4 Oregon State, and 8-4 (at best) Stanford? Cal will have more wins and a better BCS ranking that any of these teams in such a scenario, wins over two of the other teams they're tied with, and lots of local fans willing to make the trek. Working against them would be the Arizona's strong finish (a season-ending win at USC would get them plenty of national praise), and the fact that while Cal has been to San Diego twice in the past six seasons, Arizona hasn't been since 1998, and Oregon State and Stanford have never been. Still, I think Cal would have a strong case to take another holiday in sunny San Diego.

Where does that leave everyone else? I'm pretty sure the Sun Bowl won't take Oregon State two years in a row; they have a clause in their contract specifically allowing them to select a team one game below in the standings to avoid taking a team two years in a row, and I'd have to think they'd be similarly adverse to choosing OSU again amongst tied teams. Arizona would seem to be the logical pick, especially given El Paso's close proximity to Tucson. That kicks Stanford down to the Emerald, who's just fine with that, and Oregon State all the way down to the Las Vegas Bowl. USC, left alone at 6th place in the conference, also enjoys a trip to sunny San Diego, albeit a week early for the Poinsettia Bowl.

...and if Cal loses at Washington?
A Cal loss leaves them most likely tied with the Arizona @ USC loser. I don't think the Vegas would take Arizona two years in a row, but I'm almost positive they'd jump all over USC if the Trojans fell that far. My gut feeling is that their order of preference would be USC > Cal > Arizona, with the leftover team heading to the Poinsettia. Of course, if the Arizona @ USC loser also loses their rivalry game next weekend, Cal will finish ahead of them regardless and the Las Vegas Bowl will have no choice but to take the Bears.

Other contingencies...
If Arizona and USC both lose at least once more, the Holiday gets to choose between Cal, Stanford and Oregon State. If the choice is Cal, the Sun probably takes Stanford to the Emerald Bowl's chagrin, leaving the Beavers in San Francisco, and the Vegas Bowl takes USC over Arizona if those two are tied. If the Holiday selects Oregon State, it's Cal to the Sun and Stanford in the Emerald. If the Holiday selects Stanford, it's Cal to the Sun and Oregon State down in San Francisco.

Of course, Cal could still lose to UW, so if Cal, UA and USC all lose once more, it could be OSU in the Holiday, Stanford in the Sun, Cal (over USC!) in the Emerald, USC in Vegas, and Arizona in the Poinsettia. Yes, I think the Emerald would take Cal over USC. BUT, what if the Holiday selects Stanford after a stirring victory over Notre Dame? Now, the Sun Bowl can exercise their repeat-team-refusal clause and skip Oregon State, instead grabbing USC. The Emerald has no such clause, and so must take Oregon State. Cal falls to the Las Vegas Bowl, Arizona to the Poinsettia.

OK, now let's assume that Oregon State wins the Civil War...
If Oregon State wins the Civil War, they'll go to the Rose Bowl. What happens to Oregon? Well, I think they'd still be eligible for a BCS berth (the Fiesta Bowl?), but given the other teams available, the odds seem stacked against them. However, in such a case, Oregon would still finish with a share of the Pac-10 title, and, as such, would fall no further than the Holiday Bowl.

...and USC and Cal win out.
If USC can win out, I think the Sun Bowl still takes them; they're still a national ratings draw, much like Notre Dame. If Cal beats Washington, the Emerald Bowl gets the can't-lose choice between Cal and Stanford; given Cal's much-larger fanbase, I think the Emerald still takes Cal, even thought the Bears went last year. That sends the Cardinal to Las Vegas and Arizona, finishing in 6th place after losing to USC, to the Poinsettia Bowl.

If, in this scenario, the Emerald instead chooses Stanford, the Bears would fall to the Vegas. Even if Cal loses at Washington to finish in a tie for 5th place, since Arizona went to Vegas last year, I'd think that Cal falls no further than Las Vegas.

But what if Arizona wins out instead?
But what if Arizona beats USC in the season finale? Now the Sun Bowl gets the choice of Arizona, Cal and Stanford, and given such a stirring victory over USC plus Tucson's proximity to El Paso, I'd guess the Sun takes Arizona. Cal to the Emerald, Stanford to Vegas (or vice versa), and USC falls all the way to the Poinsettia Bowl -- quite a find for the five-year-old bowl, maybe even better than their Utah-TCU matchup from last year (at least from a ratings standpoint).

Other contingencies...
Loses by both USC and UA have pretty much the same effect as they would should Oregon win the Civil War. Same if combined with a Cal loss. Losses by all three ticket Stanford for El Paso, pushing the losers further down the chain. The Emerald might take Cal over USC, but no one else will, and Arizona is probably ticketed for the Poinsettia if they can't win out, even with loses by other teams.

For those of you who've read this far, a summary, with my best guesses in bold:

Oregon - Beat OSU and they're in the Rose Bowl. Lose, and they fall no further than the Holiday Bowl, with an outside shot at a consolation BCS bid.
Oregon State - Beat Oregon and they're in the Rose Bowl. Lose, and they could fall all the way to the Las Vegas Bowl. The Emerald and even the Holiday Bowls are possibilities, though they're more remote, and I think they rather require an upset or two to become realistic. I think the Sun pretty much has to be out for the Beavers.
Stanford - The Cardinal, in the conference clubhouse at 6-3, can fall no further than the Vegas Bowl, and most of the scenarios I've come up with actually place them in the Emerald Bowl. The Sun and even the Holiday are still in play, however, though I don't know how attractive Stanford is to bowls, given their small fanbase.
California - If the Bears can beat Washington, the Holiday Bowl is still in play. I think the most likely destination is the Sun Bowl, though the Emerald would love to host the Bears again. A loss to Washington seems to ticket them for Las Vegas in most scenarios, while I think it would take a special set of circumstances to kick the Bears all the way down to the Poinsettia Bowl.
USC - Win out, and they're probably in the Holiday or Sun Bowls, depending on the outcome of the Civil War. Lose, especially to Arizona, and they could fall to the Poinsettia. What a fall that would be!
Arizona - It's hard to see the Wildcats in the Holiday Bowl, but it's still possible. If they win out they'd be an attractive team for the Sun Bowl; lose at USC, and they almost certainly are headed to the Poinsettia Bowl. And if they lose out, there's a remote possibility that they could miss bowl season entirely (see below)!

But what about UCLA?
The Bruins are kinda screwed here. Now, I don't really blame the Pac-10 for only having six bowl tie-ins; when they've had seven, they've never filled them, and I can't recall the last time seven Pac-10 teams got to six wins. Still, none of this will bring comfort to Bruins fans should UCLA be forced to stay home for the holidays.

The easiest way for the Bruins to make the postseason is for the Pac-10 to get a second team in the BCS. At this point, however, that seems like a longshot. The SEC is basically assured of getting two teams in the BCS, and TCU should also receive an automatic bid. That leaves two open spots, and I think Boise State, Iowa, and the Big East runner-up all seem more likely to get a BCS bid that the Pac-10 runner-up, to say nothing of Oklahoma State (if they can beat Oklahoma this weekend).

Right now, UCLA sits in 7th place in the conference at 3-5, and everyone in front of them has at least 4 wins already. The best the Bruins can hope for is to beat USC, and then hope either USC or Arizona loses out to finish in a tie for 6th place. Actually, should UCLA beat USC and Arizona lose out, a 7-5 Bruins team would have to be selected in front of a 6-6 Wildcats team, thus sending the Bruins to the Poinsettia Bowl and leaving Arizona searching for an elusive at-large bid. A tie at 4-5 with USC would be more problematic. The Poinsettia may be interested in the Bruins for ending the season on a high note and in a head-to-head win vs. USC, but then again, USC would probably still bring a higher television audience, as disappointed as they might be to play a bowl game before Christmas.

Failing that, what chance do the Bruins have of receiving an at-large bowl bid from some other desperate minor bowl? Well, it depends on both how they finish out, and how teams around the country do as well. There are 34 bowl games this year, meaning that there are 68 potential bowl bids to be handed out -- more than half of Division I-A!. According to NCAA rules, all eligible teams with winning records must be given at-large bids before a 6-6 team can be given at at-large bid.

With two weeks left to play, 52 teams already winning records locked up. 17 more have gotten to six wins (actually 18, but 6-6 Kansas State got two of their wins over I-AA teams, so they don't get to go to a bowl game), meaning there will be, at a minimum, 69 bowl-eligible teams, so there should be no shortage this year. 8 more teams sit at 5-6, and 1 (UConn) is still at 5-5. Even if all 13 6-5 teams win their remaining game, only 65 teams will get to winning records in the regular season, meaning at least a few 6-6 teams will get to play during bowl season.

The upshot is that, should UCLA beat USC, they should almost certainly get an at-large bid somewhere (though that still might depend on how the last couple weeks play out). At 6-6, the odds are longer, though if there are extra at-large bids for 6-6 teams, I would have to think that UCLA would be a prime candidate, behind only a 6-6 Notre Dame and maybe a 6-6 Florida State.

bruinhoya from Bruins Nation helps break down the logistics of a 6-6 UCLA team going to a bowl:

If UCLA doesn’t beat USC (and USC doesn’t somehow sneak into a BCS spot), UCLA needs to have four of these things happen to make a bowl game:
1. Bowling Green lose to Toledo (unlikely)
2. Wyoming lose to Colorado State (unlikely)
3. LA-Monroe lose to Middle Tennessee State (likely)
4. LA-Lafayette lose to Troy (likely)
5. UConn lose to both Syracuse and South Florida (unlikely)
6. Kansas lose to Missouri (likely)
7. Marshall lose to UTEP AND SMU lose to Tulane (unlikely)

Another possibility was proposed by bucknellbruin; safe to say that the Horned Frogs are getting Bruin blessings this weekend:

TCU makes a BCS game (very, very likely)

Then the Humanitarian Bowl, New Mexico Bowl, or Armed Forces Bowl will need another team. If Wyoming doesn’t win it’s last game, two of those games will need teams. It’s highly unlikely that one of those games would pass up a UCLA team that’s playing good football.

Also, the EagleBank Bowl and GMAC bowl are tied in with the ACC, who won’t have enough teams. So they can pick whoever they want as well (although, the GMAC generally will pick a MAC team, since they have more teams than slots as well).

So basically, it’s a total crapshoot depending on who the bowls pick, and I have to guess that UCLA is a pretty attractive at large selection for any bowl.

Poll

I want _________ to win the Pac-10.

Oregon

328 votes

Oregon State

173 votes

501 votes | Poll has closed

CGB Top 25 - Week 11

ragnarok — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 06:03:46 -0000

Lots of movement in this week's ballot, especially outside the Top 10. I fully admit that I submitted another controversial ballot, and Yellow Fever had an intriguing vote as well. I don't know if we'll win the BlogPoll's "Mr. Manic Depressive" award, but it would surprise me if we weren't at least in the running.

Here's my 'controversial' position of the week: the Pac-10 is the deepest conference in the nation. They may not have the best team in the country, and they certainly won't be putting anyone in the mythical National Championship Game, but name me one other conference that goes six-deep with such quality teams. Even the 12-team super-conferences don't go that far. Heck, the Big XII is Texas, maybe Oklahoma State (maybe), and basically nothing else. The SEC has Florida and Alabama, but beyond LSU (whose major accomplishment at this point in the season is close losses to Florida and Alabama), there isn't a whole lot of depth. And the ACC? Georgia Tech has kept it going this year, but Virginia Tech and Miami have both stumbled repeatedly, and the Atlantic Division (yes, I had to look that up, the ACC's divisions are WAY too arbitrary) is about to be won by a Clemson team that earlier this year lost to Maryland (whose only other win was an overtime victory over I-AA James Madison).

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama
2	Florida
3	TCU	2
4	Texas	1
5	Cincinnati	1

TCU jumps a couple spots after thoroughly spanking Utah and proving that they are the class of a pretty good Mountain West. Of course, much of that jump is due to Yellow Fever's sudden decision to vote the Horned Frogs #1. Personally, I don't think it's a terrible vote, but I don't think I could write a convincing justification for it myself. Your thoughts?

6	Boise State
7	Georgia Tech
8	Pittsburgh	2
9	Oregon	2
10	LSU	2

Did anyone else notice that LSU only managed to beat 3-7 Louisiana Tech by 8 last Saturday? I sure missed that. A top 10 team ought to be able to put away such lesser competition by the time November rolls around. In case you were wondering, that's the same 8-point margin that LSU managed to escape 3-7 Washington by, and one point more than their 7-point victory over 4-6 Mississippi State (who, unlike Maryland, at least managed to defeat Middle Tennessee State). Meanwhile, I think Oregon benefits when Stanford demonstrates that their pasting of the Ducks was no fluke, following that performance by handing Pete Carroll his worst loss in his tenure for the second time in three weeks.

11	Ohio State	3
12	Oklahoma State	7
13	Stanford	10
14	Iowa	2
15	Oregon State	7

Well, well, 'Furd, where have you been all season? It's been a while since this team lost at Wake Forest, scoring just 17 points in the process. The Cardinal scored just 24 in beating UCLA three weeks later, and haven't put up fewer than four touchdowns in a game since then. Who else is ready for the Big Game?

Elsewhere, Ohio State is officially better than Iowa, but only just, and Oklahoma State rises for no reason that I can fathom. Texas Tech is a nice win, I guess, but their wins over the 6-4 Red Raiders and 6-4 Georgia are their best on the season. They got pounded by Texas, lost to Houston (who just lost at Central Florida -- not Florida, or South Florida, but Central Florida), and have yet to play a 6-4, Bradford-less Oklahoma. Heck, the Cowboys have even managed to miss the two "best" (can we really use the word "best" in this context) teams in the Big XII North, Nebraska and Kansas State. Personally, I like Oregon State's résumé (wins over 7-3 Stanford and 7-3 Cal, close losses to 7-3 USC and 10-0 Cincinnati) better, and I most certainly like the Cardinals' record better..

16	Southern Cal	3
17	Penn State	3
18	Virginia Tech	3
19	Utah	4
20	Wisconsin	4

I don't drop USC that far for losing to Stanford, instead moving the Cardinal up above them. Penn State's best win is still over Northwestern, and Virginia Tech must still be riding the wave of beating Nebraska and Miami (neither of whom appear in our ballot this week) back in September, because their four wins since then consist of an okay Boston College squad, Duke, East Carolina, and and abhorrently bad Maryland team. Perhaps Utah should fall farther, but who below them deserves to move up? Surely not Wisconsin (best win: 6-5 Michigan State, or 6-4 Fresno State in overtime?).

Last week's ballot
21	Brigham Young	3
22	Clemson
23	California
24	Arizona	8
25	Houston	8

Here it is: I not only voted for Cal this week, I slotted them in at #17. Some skepticism (sanity?) on the part of Avinash and Yellow Fever dumps them down to #23, but I still say all six Pac-10 teams deserve to be ranked right now. Surely Arizona and Cal are at least as impressive as Clemson or Houston, don't you think?

Dropped Out: Miami (Florida) (#9), Navy (#25).

It's not often a team drops from the Top 10 to completely out of our ballot in November, but I suppose losing to North Carolina will do that. I actually still voted for the 'Canes this week; although the ACC's overall profile isn't great, I still think Miami is pretty comparable to Virginia Tech at this point, to say nothing of North Carolina and Boston College.

8-3 Navy did everything they could in defeating Delaware last week, but wins by Cal and Clemson were definitely more impressive, which is why the Midshipmen got passed up. With games at Hawaii and Army coming up, the Middies have a very good shot at a 10-win season this year.

Cal vs. Detroit Basketball Preview & Open Thread

ragnarok — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 21:17:26 -0000

On Monday night, our Cal Men's Basketball team got a stiffer-than-expected test from Murray State in the opening game of the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. They managed to survive, 75-70, but perhaps the adversity will do them some good. Tonight, however, it doesn't appear that the Detroit Titans are going to provide quite as big a challenge.

Last season, Detroit finished with just a 7-23 record. They won just two games in the Horizon league, and they never won back-to-back games. Their best win (and the only one over an opponent ranked by Ken Pomeroy in the Top 200 last year) was a 5-point home victory over St. Louis. Versus major-conference competition, both Purdue and Illinois defeated the Titans by more than 30, and even a pretty bad DePaul team (one that Cal beat by 10) managed to defeat Detroit 71-62. The best that could be said about them is that they twice came within 5 points of an NCAA-caliber Butler team.

To be fair, the Titans shouldn't be quite as bad this season. They do return their top four scorers from a year ago, three of them now seniors, and add a couple of talented transfers, including what may be the Bears' first real test against a big man inside.

Your game information is as follows:

California Golden Bears (1-0) vs. Detroit Titans (0-0)
Wednesday, Nov. 11, 8:00 p.m., Haas Pavilion, Berkeley, Calif.
Radio: KFRC 1550 AM TV: ESPNU

After the jump, we'll take a closer look at the Detroit roster:

Image via www.detroittitans.com

Detroit's leading scorer is 6' 7" senior forward Thomas Kennedy, who poured in better than 11 points per game, shooting more than 50% from within the arc. He will take a few three-point shots, but seeing as how he made less than a quarter of them last year, I think the Bears will be more than willing to give him that shot. It's also worth noting that Kennedy led the team in turnovers last year from the small forward position.

via www.detroittitans.com

Returning from injury is 6' 7" junior forward Xavier Keeling, who actually led the team in scoring (12.1) and rebounding (6.6) average before being sidelined after seven games due to a foot injury. There's not much scouting on Keeling, considering he spent the previous year sitting out as a transfer from Indiana, and played sparingly for the Hooiers' as a freshman, but an athlete good enough to be recruited by Indiana is one worth worrying about.

via www.detroittitans.com

5' 11" senior guard Woody Payne will be manning the point for the Titans. In addition to leading the team in assists and steals last season, he added better than 8 points per game in scoring. Still, his assist/turnover ratio was just 1.4, not great for a college point guard.

via www.detroittitans.com

If there's one guy on the Titans' roster that really worries me, it's 6' 10", 255 lb. sophomore center Eli Holman. Holman, another transfer from Indiana (where he was part of a Top 5 recruiting class for Kelvin Sampson), will be making a homecoming of sorts to the Bay Area, where he was a standout national recruit in high school in Richmond. He's definitely got the size to cause matchup problems, and if he's got the skills to match the hype (he was a Top 100 recruit out of high school, where he once recorded a quadruple-double (24 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists, 10 blocks)), he could create real problems inside for our Bears, where he's bigger than even Sanders-Frison and much more athletic than Zhang. I really don't know what to expect out of him, however, since he really hasn't seen much game action in more than two years.

Other newcomers for the Titans include 6' 5" shooting guard Chase Simon, a transfer from Central Michigan, and 6' 0" guard Lamar Lee, a community college transfer. If their exhibition games are any guide, both of these guys will see significant playing time (Simon may start), meaning this year's Detroit Titans may not only be significantly more talented than last year's edition, but a significant part of the roster won't have any scouting tape on them.

Just going on last year's stats, Ken Pomeroy declares that the Titans play mostly man defense (good news for the Bears, as they struggled against zones last year). They weren't particularly good at anything last year; conversely, they were particularly bad at shooting (and offense in general), defending the three-point shot, and were in the bottom 10 in the country in 3-point percentage, and bottom 5 in terms of offensive turnovers. Kennedy (81) and Payne (74) were the worst last year in terms of turning the ball over, and they're both back and handling the ball plenty, so I don't really anticipate a big improvement in this regard.

Overall, the Titans face a tall task this evening. I expect their defense to be decent, but unless Holman and their forwards can get going inside AND get a couple of our guys in foul trouble, I really anticipate Detroit having trouble putting points on the board. The Bears should cruise, and the only question in my mind is whether they take control of the game in the first half or the second.

Hey, join us for another episode of the California Golden Blogs Podcast. In this episode, we have...

ragnarok — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 05:03:33 -0000

Hey, join us for another episode of the California Golden Blogs Podcast. In this episode, we have a long discussion on the merits (or demerits) of the football program, talk about how to evaluate coaches (and which ones we should FIRE NOW!), then end on a more cheerful note with some discussion of our awesome men's basketball team.

PLUS! Find out what the Chief Justice is cooking!

CGB Top 25 - Week 10

ragnarok — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:09:19 -0000

Are you bored by the 2009 Mythical National Championship Race? I'm certainly bored by it. 'Bama/Florida vs. Texas seems almost a certainty at this point, as no reasonable challenger has emerged in the weakest Big XII in recent memory, and the only reasonable challenger in the SEC (LSU) has been vanquished by both Florida and Alabama. *Yawn* Get me an 8-team playoff, stat!

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama	1
2	Florida	1
3	Texas
4	Cincinnati	1
5	TCU	3

Welcome to the Top 5, TCU! You still have to get by the Utes this weekend, but at this point, your BCS credentials look pretty solid (undefeated with road wins at BYU, Clemson and Virginia). Not great, but solid, and in this mediocre season, solid will get you everywhere.

6	Boise State
7	Georgia Tech	3
8	LSU	1
9	Miami (Florida)	5
10	Pittsburgh	2

Not only do we not penalize LSU for losing to Alabama, we actually push them up a spot into the huge vacuum created by Iowa and Oregon's demise. Miami finds itself back in the Top 10 almost by default, and Pitt? Well, why not. Their next three games are Notre Dame, @ West Virginia, and Cincinnati, so we'll soon find if their inclusion this high in the poll is justified.

11	Oregon	7
12	Iowa	5
13	Southern Cal	2
14	Ohio State	2
15	Utah	2

To every voter who voted USC higher than Oregon this week: you suck. You really, really suck. You should have your voting privileges revoked. Seriously. Yes, the Ducks lost a huge letdown game at a pretty decent (6-3) Stanford team, but they eviscerated USC just the week before. Just seven days prior! And it's not like USC did anything special last weekend, needing a pick-six to get by Arizona State 14-9. Without that, they lose to a mediocre Sun Devils team 9-7. Did you even watch that game? Was it past your bedtime?!? Jeebus. Even talking about this makes me angry.

16	Arizona	1
17	Houston	1
18	Brigham Young	2
19	Oklahoma State	2
20	Penn State	7

Oh, Penn State, what have you done this year to deserve to be ranked? Let us count the ways. 8 wins, but their best win might be over 6-4 Northwestern. Or perhaps 7-2 Temple. Temple is your best win?!?!? They lost 21-10 to Iowa at home, and then 24-7 to Ohio State at home. They miss Wisconsin this year, and have yet to play Michigan State. And no, wins over Syracuse, Akron, and Northern Illinois aren't impressing anyone either.

Last week's ballot
21	Virginia Tech	1
22	Oregon State
23	Stanford
24	Wisconsin	1
25	Navy

Finally, some more teams. Hard to leave out the 'Furd after they hang half a hundred on Oregon. Oregon State looked pretty good in beating down the Bears (even without much from Quizz, Canfield was nearly perfect), and Navy always gets my vote for beating Notre Dame. Always.

Dropped Out: Oklahoma (#19), California (#23), Notre Dame (#24).

If you're near the bottom of the poll and you suffer ignominious defeat, you're going to drop out. It's just that simple.

Cal vs. Murray State Basketball Preview & Open Thread

ragnarok — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 02:38:31 -0000

Cal's Men's Basketball team opens its season tonight at home vs. the Murray State Racers. Now, since "Murray" is not one of the Fifty United States, it would be pretty easy to overlook them, especially given that Cal has been consistently ranked in the Top 20 of preseason basketball polls, and is looking forward to a pair of tough games in Madison Square Garden next week for the Coaches v. Cancer Classic. This, I believe, would be a mistake.

Murray State (located in Murray, Kentucky) has long been a power in the Ohio Valley Conference, winning the league a record 20 times, though they haven't won it since 2006, finishing second each of the last three years. They're also picked to win the league again this year, the 13th time in the last 21 years they've been tabbed as the preseason favorite. Looking at their roster, it's not hard to see why.

The Racers return four starters, including their top three scorers, from a team that went 19-12 last year. Ken Pomeroy rated them the 137th best team in the country last year, ahead of teams like Rutgers and Oregon. Pomeroy also notes that last year's team's strengths included offensive rebounding and defending the three-point shot. Our only common opponent from last year was Missouri, whom they lost to by 11, instead of the 27 Cal fell by (both games in Columbus, MO).

Your game information is as follows:

California Golden Bears (0-0) vs. Murray State Racers (0-0)
Monday, Nov. 9, 8:00 p.m., Haas Pavilion, Berkeley, Calif.
Radio: KFRC 1550 AM TV: ESPNU

After the jump, we'll take a look around Murray State's roster.

Image via image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com

6' 4" Senior Forward Danero Thomas was their leading scorer last season with more than 12 points per game; he also grabbed more than 4 boards per game, and led the team in both blocks AND steals. Their leading returning 3-point threat, he bucketed just under 30% of his attempts, a far cry from Robertson or Randle.

Image via image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com

6' 2" Junior Guard Isacc Miles was second on the team in scoring last season, as well as tied for the team lead in assists. The Creighton transfer is also worth watching from behind the line, though like Thomas, he made less than 30% of his attempts from long range. Miles also owns the only triple-double in school history, going off for 13 points, 10 boards and 11 assists vs. Tennessee-Martin.

Image via image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com

6' 7" Sophomore Forward Ivan Aska led the team in rebounding and was third on the team in scoring during an outstanding freshman year that saw him named Ohio Valley Conference Freshman of the Year. He shot better than 50% from the floor last year, and I'd bet that a huge percentage of those shots came within a couple feet of the basket.

Image via image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com

6' 9" Senior Forward Tony Easley is the Racers' other inside scoring threat. He only averaged 6.7 ppg last year, but shot better than 60% from the floor when he did decide to take a shot. The team's second leading rebounder and shot-blocker, I'm curious to see how well the shorter Jamal Boykin guards him.

Image via image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com

6' 6" Junior Forward Jeffery McClain is not especially tall, but at 230 lbs., is still able to throw his size around. He started every game last year, and put up more than 6 points and 5 boards per game.

Image via image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com

6' 8" Senior Center Georges Fotso is a big (240 lbs.) body inside. Averaged a point per game last year.

Overall, this team seems to spread the scoring around pretty well. Leading scorer Thomas averaged just 12.5 per game, but two others averaged better than 10, and four more averaged more than 6 last year. The rebounding load was similarly shared. They're not particularly tall (no one comes closer than 6" to Max Zhang), but do have six guys on the roster 6' 6" or taller.

However, a couple of key players ARE gone from last years' team, including point guard Kevin Thomas and leading deep threat Tyler Holloway (his 60 3-pointers last year were more than the next two guys, Thomas and Miles, had combined). Without true perimeter threats, I'd expect the Racers to attack the basket pretty consistently, so the Bears' defenders better be prepared to keep their men in front of them and try and contest the entry pass. Without a dominant big man, I'm not sure the Racers can exploit the Bears' biggest weakness to its fullest, but I'd be surprised if they can't find some success inside. I expect a good challenge, however, and there certainly appears to be enough talent on this roster to pull and upset if the Bears come out sleepwalking.

Finally, a couple quotes from Monty and Randle:

They're one of those dangerous teams that people don't know about out here," Montgomery said. "They've got really good athletes, they really know how to play, and they're very confident. So it's a little bit scary."

"If you look ahead, you're just setting yourself up for an upset," senior point guard Jerome Randle said. "We have to get past these two games, then worry about Syracuse."

Murray State, coached by one-time Cal aide Billy Kennedy, won't be easy.

Led by senior Danero Thomas, a preseason All-OVC pick and the leader of a three-guard alignment, the Racers attack off the dribble more than they shoot the 3-pointer.

"They're real good off the point of attack, which is a concern for us," Montgomery said.