SB Nation User Blog: rainmaker6

Welterweight Division Facing Stagnation

rainmaker6 — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 07:48:40 -0000

The UFC has a problem on it's hands. Division stagnation.

Everyone knows that this problem has occurred in the middleweight division with a dearth of challengers to fight Anderson Silva. The UFC was much ridiculed for putting an overmatched Patrick Cote in a title fight with Anderson Silva. They're facing the same problem with the upcoming Thales Leites fight.

Due to poor matchmaking in recent events, after Thiago Alves, the welterweight division will be facing a similar lack of challengers for GSP's welterweight title (I'm assuming that GSP beats Alves. No easy feat but after tonight's performance...).

The BE meta-rankings for WW are:

1. Georges St. Pierre

2. Thiago Alves

3. Jon Fitch

4. Josh Koscheck

5. Jake Shields

6. Diego Sanchez

7. Matt Hughes

8. Carlos Condit

9. Matt Serra

10. Karo Parisyan

11. Mike Swick

12. Nick Thompson

13. Marcus Davis

14. Dustin Hazelett

15. Brock Larson

16. Jay Hieron

17. Chris Wilson

18. Dan Hardy

19. Chris Lytle

20. Nick Diaz

21. Hayato Sakurai

22. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

23. Brad Blackburn

24. Anthony Johnson

25. Akihiro Gono

#3 Jon Fitch and #4 Josh Koscheck have already been beaten by GSP. A title shot for either of them wouldn’t be terrible but it also wouldn’t really excite the fans.

#5Jake Shields, #6Diego Sanchez #7Matt Hughes and #9 Matt Serra will also never challenge for the UFC WW title again (unless Jake Shields somehow sorts himself out of the EXC quagmire).

#10 Karo Parisyan is seems to be highly overrated following his fight today against unranked Dong Hyun Kim and doesn’t deserve his top ten ranking.

Therefore the only potential challengers to the crown at this point are #8 Carlos Condit and #22 Mike Swick. There’s also potential for unranked Martin Kampmann if he beats Carlos Condit. The only other person I feel is worth mentioning is #14 Dustin Hazelett who has shown great potential in his past few fights. Others might also mention that unranked Ben Saunders has looked impressive in his past few fights.

There are a few big problems:

1. This is the main problem. Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck are too good. Basically both these guys have no chance of beating GSP but they would beat everyone else ranked below them.

2. The AKA fighters probably won’t fight each other. AKA possesses three world class welterweights and they can all beat most of the welterweights out there. And none of them can beat GSP.

3. Matt Serra and Matt Hughes are now largely irrelevant. After they fight each other they should both retire. With Matt Serra – I don’t see him beating any of the consensus top ten but Hughes is probably still good enough to beat second-tier fighters like Hazelett and Yoshida etc.

Therefore the matchmaking needs to go something like this:

1. Carlos Condit v Martin Kampman (already signed) – If Condit wins he should probably get an immediate title shot. It’s a sellable fight since Condit is the WEC Champion. The loser should fight Jon Fitch or Josh Koscheck. If Kampman wins he should fight the loser of Mike Swick – Karo Parisyan.

2. Mike Swick v Karo Parisyan – A fight I see Swick winning rather easily. I think ‘Quick’ is underrated at #11 and would beat Parisyan and Serra relatively easily. If Swick wins he should get a title shot because he would have won 4 in a row and the most recent against a top 10 guy.

3. Dustin Hazelett v Marcus Davis – Marcus Davis is a name fighter and also one I think that Hazelett can beat if he gets the fight to the ground. If he can beat Davis then he should move to contender status and fight the winner of Hughes-Serra. I don’t think he’d be able to beat Matt Hughes though.

4. Ben Saunders should not be fighting a UFC newcomer. The Hazelett match up was a good matchmaking. Now that it’s off Saunders should have been put in with another name fighter like Chris Lytle. A win there would put him one big win away from a title shot.

Overall – I think the welterweight division is headed towards stagnation. After GSP defeats Thiago Alves there will be a clear lack of legitimate challengers to the thrown, largely because nobody can break through the steel gates that are Koscheck and Fitch.

And we’ll be rewarded with an end of year Superfight. GSP vs Anderson Silva…

I can’t wait.

What makes 24/7 better than UFC Primetime?

rainmaker6 — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 08:29:56 -0000

In no way am I saying UFC Primetime isn't good. It's an engaging program and a great step forward for the UFC and the sport in general.

But somehow I felt that it didn't seem as epic as 24/7. I just re-watched Pacquaio-De La Hoya 24/7 and it was amazing. Even though I knew that De La Hoya got pounded on by Pacquaio, just by watching 24/7 you feel so engaged with the fighters and their lives - much more so than Primetime.

I'm really not sure why. I have no idea why the atmosphere created by 24/7 is better than that of Primetime. It could be down to the fighters themselves, De La Hoya and Pacquiao have more 'interesting' stories than GSP and Penn do at this point in their careers. Pacquaio particularly because of the Philipines element (the whole country loves him and top Filipino government officials are on the show).

The music in Primetime is great...but somehow 24/7 seems even better.

Just can't put my finger on it. Any ideas?

Affliction at Madison Square Garden??!!

rainmaker6 — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 18:57:07 -0000

Due to the original negative response to this post because of my liberal use of hyperbole I've decided to slim this post down to a shortened and more realistic version of the events as I see it.

In a nutshell - Affliction have solid plans for a third event but have not yet announced their plans because they are hoping that MMA will be legalized in this legislative session of the New York State Legislature.

Because of Golden Boy's pre-existing relationship with Madison Square Garden management and Donald Trump's personal relationship with the CEO and controlling family of the owners of MSG, Affliction stand a good chance at leaping over the UFC and booking the Garden before the UFC does.

If this scenario plays itself out, Affliction would be more likely to garner mainstream media attention and would have to be taken more seriously as a competitor to the UFC.

For my original post (hyperbole included!) read below.

Since Day of Reckoning, it seems that the potential of a third Affliction show moves closer and closer to reality. Recent articles by MMA Payout and other blogs have shown that more and more fans are starting to understand how in the context of their t-shirt business, Affliction can lose 1 or 2 million dollars on a show and yet still keep holding events. Whilst I agree, I think that Affliction also have a master plan for

Following Banned which was held on July 19, 2008, Tom Atencio was pretty quick to announce Affliction's second PPV event would be scheduled for October 11, 2008. Looking back through the archives of BE, I confirmed that the original announcement of Fedor-Arlovski was reported by Kevin Iole on July 24, 2008.

Tom Atencio and his gang knew exactly what they were going to do as soon as Tim Sylvia tapped out.

However interestingly enough, following Fedor's KO over Arlovski, Affliction have been awfully quiet. The main talking point has been the snide remark made by Larry Merchant, which has turned out to be been a blessing in disguise for fans, revealing details of the previously opaque relationship between Golden Boy and Affliction. Most importantly Golden Boy have stuck by Affliction and denied Merchant's remarks. The boxing promoter seems to be committed to their MMA partner.This has led me to the following inference:

I highly doubt that Affliction don't know when they plan to hold their next event. They know.

According to NBC New York the NY State Legislature will vote at some point next week to legalize MMA across the Empire State. Might beating the UFC to Madison Square Garden be Affliction's plan to send their promotion into the stratosphere?!

First of all Golden Boy Promotions probably have an extremely good relationship with the management of the Garden, having held numerous events there including 2007's fight between Shane Mosley and Miguel Cotto and various other significant fights throughout the years. One must imagine that despite Dana White's best efforts, he would be second in line for booking the venue if the other call came from Golden Boy CEO Richard Schaefer.

As should be obvious by now, my theory is that Affliction are hoping that MMA will be legalized in New York soon, which will allow them to jump the gun on the UFC and be the first MMA promotion to host an event at Madison Square Garden. One must figure that Donald Trump, as influential an individual as there is in his home town of New York City, has his eyes and ears inside the workings of the State Legislature and would be able to know in advance of anyone connected to the UFC whether or not the UFC's best efforts at legalizing MMA in New York City were successful. Jsut like Lorenzo Fertitta was instrumental in getting MMA regulated in Nevada, NYC is Trump's turf. New York City is a long way from Las Vegas.

By the way, Madison Square Garden is owned by a company called Cablevision. Aside from being the 5th largest cable company in the US, Cablesvision own the New York Knicks and the New York Rangers. And whilst it's a publicly listed company, Cablevision is substantially owned and controlled by members of the Dolan family, including Chief Executive James Dolan. Who just so happenes to be great friends with another New York City high flying business man. One Donald J. Trump.

Relevant Links

Legalizing MMA in NYC: http://www.nbcnewyork.com/sports/more/New-York-Could-Legalize-MMA-Next-Week.html

Cablevision: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cablevision_(US)

Trump and Dolan: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/08/nyregion/08cablevision.html

Great acting by Tom Atencio ("I want to have fun!"): http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/1/28/738827/fiveouncesofpain-com-inter

P.S. If this hold true, Affliction will definitely achieve mass media coverage for their event pitting the 'unbeatable Russian' Fedor against the 'All-American and youngest ever UFC Champion'.

If they add Tito Ortiz to the roster of the fight card, right bang in the middle of the world's media centre - we could be looking at a serious competitor.

And they would get serious props for outwitting Dana White and the UFC. Be careful what you wish for Dana....

Affliction: Donald Trump Jr. and Larry King

rainmaker6 — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 11:00:48 -0000

Looks like the Trump partnership, after a lot of hype, might slowly be paying off for Affliction. Larry King did a web only interview with Donald Trump Jr. discussing the Affliction Day of Reckoning Event.

Although it's a web only thing it does help raise the profile of MMA among the mainstream public (Larry King is about as mainstream as you can get).

Larry did mention it on his show earlier today.

http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2009/01/21/lkl.trump.jr.web.exclusive.cnn

Embedded video from CNN Video

Trump Sr. is a marketing genius and knew that by doing the Apprentice on NBC he would launch his 'Trump' brand into the stratosphere. Well maybe Tom Atencio also know's what he is doing by partnering with Trump. Hopefully Trump Jr. knows what he's doing.

Interestingly Larry refers to Affliction as 'Trump's Affliction Entertainment Company'. Now Larry could have his facts wrong or Trump could have a much more significant stake in the company then we might be aware of. Should that be the case it bodes well for Affliction having a 3rd and 4th show at least.

If Trump Jr. has a real financial stake in Affliction Entertainment we would really need to start taking them more seriously. Trump Sr., who has a personal networth of 3 billion plus (as of Forbes 2008), could easily afford to spend 3 or 4 million here and there on an MMA show. Of course, he would plan for it to be successful in the long run, but a 40 million dollar investment is something that he could easily afford.

For a bit of perspective check out how much Laksmi Mittal spent on his daughter's wedding:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3830009.stm

Perhaps that is why Affliction only aims to host 4 events a year rather than 8 or 10. Trump wants to build the brand slowly and is prepared to spend a little money to do so. Alternatively he's letting his son to build a big business play thing with the 'cool kids' from 'Affliction'.

Either way, Affliction could well be here to stay.

Business Plan for Affliction: Sign Kimbo

rainmaker6 — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 07:00:16 -0000

First things first:

1. I originally intended to draft a post in response to dropkick’s well written but absolutely unrealistic post about Affliction possibly doing anywhere near 200,000 PPV buys.

2. The majority of the BE community has already expressed their belief that dropkick’s hypothesis is unrealistic. Suffice to say that as it stands Affliction will most likely do around 50K – 75K PPV buys if that. They will most likely lose a hefty sum again on this event. If, as mentioned by Michael Rome, Affliction will spend upwards of 2 million on the Fedor fight alone their loss will probably be comparable to their first show.

However – the way for Affliction to move their way into profitability and success is clear:

Sign Kimbo Slice.

I think everyone here has no doubt at all that Kimbo is a huge draw. He is a much bigger draw than both Arlovski and Fedor put together. Despite his loss, Kimbo will still attract media attention and lots of PPV buys. Thus, the Affliction business plan for the next show should be as follows.

One.

Sign Kimbo Slice. He should be matched up against Ken Shamrock OR failing that then Frank Shamrock or someone else with a name, maybe a Gracie? Cesar Gracie perhaps?

This fight is guaranteed to attract media attention.

Two.

Hype the event in the right way. Tom Atencio’s exact words should be something like this (if they sign Ken Shamrock):

“We know that the public wanted to see this fight. Everyone wanted to see it. We had this great fight card with the best fighter in the world taking on arguably the second best fighter. But we also know that people want to see Kimbo fight as well. We’re happy to oblige. But make sure you take note that the two guys fighting in the main event would absolutely crush Brock Lesnar. These guys are the legit best fighters in the world.” Then cue some garbage about how Fedor absolutely pounded on Heath Herring much worse than Lesnar did.

Insist that people who want to do interviews with Kimbo and Shamrock also include coverage of Fedor. Hype everything about him, how he is undefeated, how he is Vladimir Putin’s best friend, etc etc. Make sure Kimbo also acknowledges that Fedor is incredible and tells everyone he meets. Get Kimbo on Jimmy Kimmel and talk about his loss and how he was just starting out and how everyone gets caught. Reference that Chuck got brutally knocked out and so did Randy Couture. Then let the world know that Fedor has never been knocked out or even knocked down. Also let the world know that Fedor beat down on Lesnar’s next opponent twice. Let Kimbo tell the world that fighting Fedor is what he’s aiming for and that MMA is a developing sport and Fedor is King. If possible get Fedor and his translator on Jimmy Kimmel with Kimbo. Get Kimmel to crack some joke about how he seems like the nicest guy and then air the footage or Fedor destroying Sylvia. Try to get Arlovski some media attention and utilise the footage of his beat down of Ben Rothwell and Roy Nelson. The Rothwell fight in particularly was pretty epic.

Most importantly – leverage the Kimbo attraction to hype Fedor. Make sure the world knows that Kimbo is a star and a great upcoming fighter but that Fedor is currently considered the number one fighter on the planet.

Three

(This one is a bit unrealistic but maybe it could happen).

BEG a basic cable channel to air 30 minutes of build up for the Affliction PPV. Pay them handsomely. Maybe do what Obama did and just purchase 30 minutes worth of primetime TV. Alternatively - use preexisting links to Showtime or CBS to get 30 minutes build up. Use the time to hype both Kimbo-Shamrock fight and Fedor-Arlovski fight. Also do brief hypes on potential break out stars like Chris Horodecki. Make sure that the show is perfect and everybody who watches the build-up show wants to spend $40 on a PPV. Hope that the show draws a decent number of eye-balls.

Again – I think step three is unrealistic because Affliction doesn’t have the budget OR the time but if they can somehow get together then this will be a great help.

Four

During the PPV hype the Fedor fight. Hype it bigtime just before the Kimbo fight. Everyone who’s watching must understand how great Fedor is. Given a 3 hour PPV and some quick fights there should be plenty of time to allow a hype machine to go all out. The broadcast team should be extremely well briefed on who Fedor is.

Five

Hope that both Kimbo and Fedor win. Hope that Fedor looks amazing destroying Arlovski in brutal fashion. It’s not the end of the world is either of them lose but it’ll make things more difficult. Also hope that the event is amazing and everyone who watches will come back and buy the next PPV.

The most important thing that Affliction needs is eyeballs. If they have a large number of eyeballs then this can potentially set them up with a good long term outlook.

Affliction need a Griffin-Bonnar moment that can set them up as a potential rival to the UFC. The problem that Elite XC had was they based their promotion around Kimbo who wasn’t a legit fighter. The difference between that and TUF was that anyone watching TUF would have understood that Griffin and Bonnar were students and the Randy and Chuck were the coaches. By definition people would have then understood that either Randy or Chuck would destroy Griffin or Bonnar. This built the legitimacy of the two legends and allowed them to become mainstream stars.

The same needs to occur with Affliction. Kimbo has to be seen acknowledging that he’s still learning and that Fedor and Arlovski are the guys at the top. That way everyone who watches will be intrigued by how good these guys really are.

If DOR is a really good watch then people will come back and Affliction will have a fair amount of goodwill among customers. They could then utilise the pre-existing relationship with Elite XC to try to leverage a Showtime deal etc etc.

The reality is that Affliction are going to lose a couple of mil on this show. If they really want this MMA venture to succeed they should roll the dice and shell out about a million more for Kimbo and related expenses. This may actually give them a fighting chance (no pun intended).

For the record – I think Affliction will be toast pretty soon. If not before this event then definitely after. I also don’t really imagine any other way they can build a large customer/fan base before this event. If they lose a huge amount of money again then they’ll go back to their clothing business and their all new ‘dream team’. (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Affliction-Clothing-Takes-Contemporary-Fashion/story.aspx?guid=%7BE4D74081-A38E-4011-9C5B-E0408BFA3267%7D)

My opinion is that this is perhaps the only way the Affliction can build big exposure quickly.

Maybe they could also sign Gina Carano from under Dana’s nose! (Note: this wouldn’t have the same impact as a Kimbo signing because they cannot leverage of Gina’s popularity to hype Fedor.)

(Get Fedor to ask Vladimir Putin to come to the US to sit and watch the fight!)

Don’t put Ozzie Osbourne or any other crap heavy-metal bands on the PPV. I for one did not at all appreciate the heavy metal band at the Affliction show. I’m there to watch MMA. And I like the Backstreet Boys. Keep the atmosphere resembling a sporting event. License Gladistor style music.

Anderson Silva should cement his legacy at 205

rainmaker6 — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 03:14:18 -0000

What should Dana White do with Anderson Silva?

Anderson Silva is causing some serious issues for Dana White. His presence has stagnated the middle-weight division and put Rich Franklin into fighter's purgatory. The lack of competitive fights that are available at middle-weight mean that staying at 185 shouldn't be the option that White chooses for Silva. Given all the retirement talk, Dana should try to create a superstar of Silva in his last five fights in the hope that someone will beat him and the star power will be transferred to them. Dana should create a plan for Silva that involves him taking on a host of 205 superstars beginning with Chuck Liddell.

Liddell is still one of the UFC's biggest stars but his invulnerability factor is completely gone following his knock out loss to Rashad Evans. Dana must know that Chuck will never be able to get into title contention again and it’s not even in the UFC's interest in having Chuck win the title. However a fight between Anderson Silva and Chuck Liddell could still sell a huge amount of PPVs. Chuck would come in as the clear underdog (it’s be interesting to see how this effect his training and game plan). As mentioned in an earlier post, I think Silva would defeat Chuck handily and continue building his legacy.

Next Anderson Silva should fight Keith Jardine. Jardine has a pretty high profile but he is unlikely to become a title contender. The storyline could involve the fact that Jardine beat Chuck.

Following this fight Anderson Silva should be pitted against Wanderlei Silva. If Anderson can become the only person in history to beat both Liddell and Wand he will definitely cement his position as one of the greatest fighters ever. Following a win, Dana could start billing Anderson’s mission as taking on the ‘elite of the LHW division’. Dana should sell Anderson Silva’ fights as a mission to prove once and for all he’s the greatest. I feel that the public buys storylines such as when ‘Chuck Liddell is trying to avenge all his losses.’ He could then lay out the final two fights that Anderson Silva could have.

The next fight should be against Quinton Jackson. This would definitely be an exciting fight and a win for either man would make them into a superstar.

Finally Anderson Silva could fight against Forrest Griffin (if he’s still champ at this point). If Silva got this far I’m sure huge amounts of media would follow this fight. Given the right marketing (and the right marketing of aforementioned fights) Anderson Silva would be a bona fide superstar (despite not knowing how to speak English!) and he could challenge for the LHW belt.

Anderson Silva SHOULD NOT fight Shogun Rua or Thiago Silva. I think these two men would have a better chance against Silva than any of the above 5 fighters (except perhaps Forrest Griffin). Also neither of them have a high profile in the US so beating them would not give any noticeable sparkle to Silva’s record. It’s time for White and Joe Silva to start matching the Spider up with the best the 205lb division has to offer. The world needs to see these superfights and marketed well they could create a global superstar. They great thing is that every single one of these fights has the potential to be extremely exciting. Forgot Silva versus Yushin Okami. It is a fight that intrigues me but to the casual fan it would mean nothing. Go for the superfights. Hell if Silva gets through all these guys (and Randy Couture is still champ) let him fight Randy. (Don’t let him fight Lesnar though because he’ll get destroyed. Lesnar is too big and too strong).

I'm not a Silva nuthugger nor do I think he's undefeatable. I would favour him against all 5 men I mentioned above. However more importantly I think the UFC should do this because it makes sense for business and for mixed martial arts fans.

No One at Light Heavyweight can beat Anderson Silva

rainmaker6 — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 14:09:23 -0000

No one at light heavyweight can beat Anderson Silva

This is the first part of a critical analysis of which fighters at any weight class can defeat UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva. As a firm believer that styles make fights, I hypothesize that nobody at UFC's vaunted 205 weight class has the technique and style to defeat Anderson Silva. In a later post I will then move to the heavyweight division and suggest that there are a number of heavyweights who will handily defeat Anderson Silva in the Octagon. Finally I will propose a fighter at 185 whom I strongly believe will beat Anderson Silva. Unfortunately - whether he will ever get a shot at the title while Silva is still champ is highly questionable.

Light Heavyweight

1. Forrest Griffin 467 UFC 1

2. Quinton Jackson 450 UFC 2

3. Lyoto Machida 424 UFC 4

4. Rashad Evans 410 UFC 8

5. Chuck Liddell 371 UFC 2

6. Wanderlei Silva 370 UFC 6

7. Mauricio Rua 368 UFC 5

8. Keith Jardine 309 UFC 7

9. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou 266 UFC 10

10. Thiago Silva 223 UFC 9

Above are the BE Meta-Critic rankings for Light Heavyweight division ("LHW"). It is interesting that LHW is often said to be the best division in the UFC, the so called 'marquee' division, whereas the middleweight division ("MW") is often said to be lacking in talent. Critics of the MW division often cite the lack of fighters who can make a competitive fight out of a meeting with Anderson Silva as the justification for this. In my humble opinion, it is simply because Silva is so dominant at his weight class that suggests the MW is the 'poor man's division' as compared to LHW. If you include Rich Franklin and Dan Henderson at MW the MW division has a larger variety of fighters and without Silva in the mix you could have a very competitive division without one man who is head and shoulders above the rest. The real problem with the MW has been its inability to create stars like the LHW has. My belief is that has got a lot to do with the words 'heavyweight' and 'middleweight' but that is for another post.

My hypothesis is based on the belief that the above 10 top LHW are all primarily strikers (with the exception of Rashad Evans (4)). No one in the above list has the skill set to beat Silva. I'll go from bottom up:

Thiago Silva

Ranked at number 10 but I think in reality he will beat the majority of people ranked higher than him in the list. An aggressive all-out striker he would pose a threat to Anderson with his non-stop aggression. Probably one of the toughest matches that Anderson could have at 205, however I believe that Anderson's striking is just too precise, his ability to evade incoming attacks to good and his mental game too strong to be intimidated by Thiago's aggression. Definitely an explosive fight I'd love to see.

Sokoudjou

Definitely out of the top ten after his loss to Luis Cane, Sokoudjou is like a big version of Patrick Cote with not as good a chin. His wild striking style is tailor-made for Silva's precise missile-like muay thai and I could see Silva stopping Sokoudjou early in the second after making the Cameroonian chase him around during round 1. I'd love to see a replay of Silva's awesome display of reaction speed and evasion skill that he showcased against Rich Franklin in their second fight. Sokoudjou has a black belt in Judo and he's supposedly great but he hasn't showcased it much in his fights thus far. He might have a strength advantage against Silva and perhaps he could win if he fought like Tim Sylvia and pinned Silva to the fence for three rounds. However Sokoudjou hasn't shown anything that shows he has a strong inside game so you have to imagine that he would succumb to Silva's deadly muay thai clinch.

Keith Jardine

Jardine has a shot at beating Silva because he trains out of Greg Jackson's camp. In my mind Jackson is the number one 'game planner' in MMA today. He understands the intricacies of fights so well that he is generally able to develop a game plan to ensure his fighter will fight a competitive fight against whatever opponent he faces. I believe Jackson would advise Jardine to continually try to take Silva down, both through takedowns and from the clinch. However after watching Jardine get decimated by Houston Alexander and Silva (Wanderlei) I have no choice but to come to the conclusion that his chin isn't solid enough to withstand 3 rounds against Anderson Silva. However good Jackson's gameplan is, Jardine will get hit during 3 rounds and one punch is generally enough to put him away.

Mauricio Rua

Since his Grand Prix win in 2005 Rua has been one of my favorite fighters (currently ranked second to GSP) because of his exciting style and non-stop pace. I was bitterly disappointed by his loss to Forrest Griffin and I'm really hoping he returns strong from injury. Rua is similar to Thiago Silva in many ways and again I think that as much as I like him Silva (Anderson) muay thai is too precise and too technical. He will not get into a brawl with Rua but rather he will pick him apart with ease. Rua is a great fighter but he doesn’t have the tools to beat Anderson Silva.

Wanderlei Silva

Wanderlei is definitely a small LHW and if he fought Anderson you'd be confused as to which guy was moving up from 185. A fight between these two has been long overdue. Again the same problems arise for Wanderlei as they do for Sokoudjou and Wand's ex-teammate Rua. Their aggressive all-out striking style doesn't make sense against Anderson and I believe Silva would defeat Wanderlei handily. On a side-note: Wanderlei looks significantly smaller compared to when he fought in Pride.

Chuck Liddell

A huge fight and an obvious choice for a mega pay-per-view for the UFC. Liddell's vaunted power seems less obvious in recent fights and I don't like his chances. Considering that Liddell hasn't changed his game plan for the past 5 years and basically fights the same fight every time he comes into the Octagon (evidence that he is one of the older generation of mixed-martial artists who aren't diverse enough to remain at the top anymore). Liddell doesn't have the striking skill to match Silva and his chin also isn't the best. I believe this would be one of Silva's easier 'superfights' at 205. Liddell's possibility of winning comes from his underused wrestling skill but I'm not sure that he would use it. Silva would pick Liddell apart with precise striking and would evade the majority of Liddell's looping right hands with ease.

Rashad Evans

As close to a winner as there could be on this list, Evans wrestling skill would stand him in good stead against Silva whose take down defense isn't the greatest. Evans could win by using a lay and pray strategy and keep trying to take Silva down for 3 rounds. Given that Evans is extremely quick perhaps he could use his speed to nullify some of Silva's striking. I believe that Evans could get Silva on his back at least a few times during a fight. However I also believe that Evan's striking isn't good enough to avoid getting hit at least a few times by Silva during the proceedings. Evan's chin hasn't been tested much so I'm not sure how he would take multiple punches from Silva. However I personally don't see Evan's chin being relevant as I would envisage Silva destroying Evans with muay-thai knees to the body ala Rich Franklin. The fact that Evans isn't one of the bigger 205ers also hurts his chances against Silva.

Lyoto Machida

Possibly the one fighter who, by predicting his loss, I would be flamed the most for. If this happened it would show that BE's readership is educated as to the intricacies of Mixed Martial Arts and would be a great compliment to the site. Lyoto Machida brings a unique style to MMA and I am one of his most loyal supporters. I love watching him fight and I think his style is exciting and effective. However, by believing that Machida could defeat Silva is to forget a couple of things. 1. Silva trains with Machida often. He would be used to Machida's range and style of striking. 2. Despite fighting at a lower weight class, Silva would have both the size and reach advantage against Machida. Machida often weighs in at about 200lbs (which means he doesn't cut weight to get there) and Silva cuts from between 210 and 220 lbs. Silva is also taller and has a longer reach.

A fight between these two would be similar to a karate sparring match, one that Silva would come out in top via decision. His long reach and understanding of the karate range that Machida fights in would allow him to score more points on the striking overall and look more impressive than Machida in front of the judges who would reward Silva with a unanimous decision. Overall this is a moot point because they are unlikely to ever fight each other.

Quinton Jackson

Jackson's size and strength are his biggest assets against Silva. He should come into the fight with a significant size advantage. Jackson is one of the few on the list that have the tools to beat Silva should he choose to fight the right fight. That would be to push for takedowns on Silva and attempt to ground and pound Silva into the mat. The absolutely wrong fight for Jackson to fight would be for him to stand with Silva and attempt to knock him out. That would almost certainly result in the same devastating defeats that saw him lose against both Wanderlei and Shogun in Pride. Anderson's muay-thai clinch is even more effective than that of his fellow Brazilians. If this fight materializes I would give Rampage a 40% chance of winning.

Forrest Griffin

Griffin is possible the biggest 205lber there is. He also has a work-ethic that is second to none and is a well-rounded mixed martial artist. Forrest will definitely have the edge in wrestling and I think that his jiu-jitsu is good enough to prevent him from getting submitted by Silva. Forrest could conceivably win a decision against Silva by mixing up his fighting style and repeatedly going for takedowns. I don't see anyway that he could stop Silva as he doesn't possess solid knockout power nor is his jiu-jitsu good enough to submit Silva. On the other hand, given Griffin's knockout loss to Keith Jardine, I'd envisage Silva being able to knockout Griffin is he ever gets the chance. A close call, but if the fight came to fruition I'd have to go with Silva by KO, especially if it's a five-round fight.

Just for the record I don’t believe that Anderson Silva is pound-for-pound the best fighter in the world. That title should belong to George St Pierre who will eventually be regarded as the prototypical mixed martial artist. As I shall demonstrate in a later post, Anderson Silva’s game has weaknesses that can be exploited, whereas GSP has elite level skills in almost all facets of his game. There is no doubt in my mind that if GSP walked around at 215 and was 6’1” he would beat Anderson Silva. Because of his size disadvantage I don’t think he would win in real life.

In a later post I will move to analyze the heavyweight division and also propose the fighter that I believe could beat Silva at 185.

Thanks for reading.