SB Nation User Blog: raoulduke

From BSOTS: "Of course, the big honors in this game go to Channing Frye who's first home game back...

raoulduke — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 06:15:29 -0000

From BSOTS: "Of course, the big honors in this game go to Channing Frye who's first home game back in front of his native crowd saw him hit 6 or 7 from three and finish with 24 points. Asked if he was in a zone Frye responded, "Sorta, kinda. If I made 9 or 10 then I would be in a zone."

Judst sayin'

Blazer related post at Sactown Royalty

raoulduke — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 01:44:13 -0000

Blazer related post at Sactown Royalty

Interesting take on the Blazers turnaround from a Kings fan.

Cap Space 2010 - edited w credit to douglast

raoulduke — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:35:47 -0000

So I'll leave a lot of this to the cap gurus and the folks inclined to really do the research, but Mike Barrett on the radio got me to thinking. The assumption here is that this is our last chance, after this year cap space is gone for a long time. Is that true?

Next year:

D Miles comes off the books 9M

Outlaw expires 5M

Blake expires 6M

Joel opts out. 7M

Even with Roy and LMA signed to long term agreements, there is cap space there, a lot of it.

Am I wrong?

douglast in a comment below did the heavy lifting:

I was about to post this.

I re-ran the numbers and was surprised by what I found. Here you go:

Players:
LaMarcus 12,000,000 (assumes extension starting at that amount. if not extended, his cap hold is over 14 mil)
Brandon 13,500,000 (assumes max extension. alternate cap hold amount is 11,732,448)
Martell 4,773,218
Greg Oden 6,760,524
Bayless 2,292,600
Rudy 1,246,680
Nicolas 1,196,760

Euros:
Claver 1,088,800
Freeland 886,000
Koponen 886,000

Roster Charges:
player 11 473,604
player 12 473,604

This totals 45,577,790. Or about 12-13 million under the cap. not enough for a max player, but certainly enough for the next tier of players after that.

The path of least resistance

raoulduke — Tue, 12 May 2009 17:50:45 -0000

There is, of course, more than one path to an NBA championship. Several well thought out posts in recent weeks have explored some of them. While I appreciate the effort that has gone in to writing those posts most of them have left me unsatisfied. I think there are a couple of reasons for this.

Those reasons may be idiosyncratic to me, I understand, but here they are: 1) I want to see this team win a championship, I don’t want to see some future team made up of a bunch of guys I don’t know or care about win a championship because we blew up this team to get them. 2) I think Kevin Pritchard was serious last year when he said our championship window is in three or four years.

With those caveats in mind there is a path for the championship which I call “the path of least resistance”. Here’s how it works.

2009/2010, whether we like it or not, is another year for growth and development. It should be an exciting year with great play on the court and high expectations which are largely met. The Blazers goal should be to win a first-round playoff series and at a minimum be competitive in the second round. They should at least match their 54 win total of this year. They may not exceed it because in some areas they may take a step back.

The details:

Brandon Roy: I’ll start by stating the obvious, Roy is good enough to get the Blazers there. It would be nice if there were enough scoring options so that Roy’s minutes could be managed a little more closely in the interests of having enough gas in the tank for a playoff run and career longevity.

LaMarcus Aldridge: There are arguably better power forwards in the NBA. Not many, but a few. But the fact is, he is also good enough. Plenty of teams have won NBA titles without the talent the Blazers have at this position. The team could upgrade, but when you factor in the age and potential it’s hard to imagine any upgrade that is a net long-term gain when you figure what we would have to give up to get it. So we stand pat.

Rudy Fernandez: Whether or not you think you think he’s reached his potential he brings one absolutely essential ingredient to the Blazers and that is his off the ball movement. When he got here he was virtually the only Blazer outside of one notable quarter by Martel Webster two years ago who exploited the ability to get open by constant off the ball movement. By the end of this year, during that notable 12 game run to finish the season, that kind of movement and energy had become a signature of the Blazers offense. Even if he shows no more growth as a player his contribution to the team culture, and his willingness to step up in the big game, and the spark his three-point shooting provides is enough to keep him here through the window.

Joel Przybilla: Because of his age and injury history the team may not be able to count on Joel to be around and contributing during the whole period when it’s making its run. But his rebounding and defense whether on the first or second unit is essential for the foreseeable future.

To me, these four guys are the guys that are “good enough.” These are the guys that really don’t have to get any better and that we're not likely to upgrade without incurring an unreasonable cost. Not to say that they won’t get better, but for them, upside is frosting on the cake.

So how does the team get better?

Point guard: the path of least resistance for improving at point guard is for Bayless to reach his potential. Whether you think he’s a pure point guard, a shooting guard in a point guard’s body, an undersized shooting guard or lacks the court vision to become a first-rate point guard the fact remains that Bayless can bring two things to the table that the Blazers desperately need: perimeter on the ball defense, and a guy who can get to the hoop and finish. There are three things standing in the way of Bayless becoming the point guard that the Blazers need to get to the next level. 1) court vision, 2) a jump shot 3) Sergio Rodriguez.

The only thing that will tell us if Bayless has or can develop the court vision necessary to being an NBA point guard is for him to play in the NBA. The obstacle here is minutes.

His jump shot can be worked on. He doesn’t have to become a marksman, just good enough so that defenders can’t play off him at midrange and clog the lane.

I’m not heavily invested in the Bayless versus Sergio debate. Each have their own strengths and weaknesses, each can be a contributor for an NBA team. The question is which strengths are more important to the Blazers? Even though Sergio was the clear winner of the backup point guard battle this year I think that Nate has answered this question. For Nate, Sergio’s strengths as a creator and distributor did not offset his inability to defend, finish up the rim and shoot a consistent jumper.

We have a choice here. We can develop Sergio or we can develop Bayless, we don’t get to do both. Based on upside and team need I think it’s time for Sergio to go and wish him well. Neither Blake nor Bayless have injury issues.

The path of least resistance is to suck it up, make Bayless the backup point, resolve to endure the inevitable cringeworthy moments and move Sergio when the right deal comes along.

Small forward: if Martel Webster and Nicolas Batum reach their potential this team is good to go. What are the obstacles? Webster’s foot and Batum’s offense. When Webster comes back there’s going to be a minutes crunch at small forward among Outlaw, Webster and Batum. What the team gets from Outlaw is a player who is athletic enough to create his own shot and provide 14 points worth of offensive spark from the bench. If Webster and Batum can replace what Outlaw brings and add defense, consistency and an ability to see the court and pass, then Outlaw becomes redundant. I like Outlaw, I’m not an Outlaw basher. But IF Webster and Batum reach their potential, he’s just not needed. The obstacles here are Batum’s minutes, Webster’s foot and Webter’s year off. Batum wil need minutes and additional responsibilities to if he is to grow, especially on offense. It’s hard to see that happening with the minutes being split three ways. I feel very concerned about Webster’s foot. I do not think it’s a foregone conclusion that he will completely heal and return to his old form. He’s also missed a full year of NBA competition. A few games in summer league will not be enough to make up for that setback. Therefore I think that while Outlaw should be traded, he should not be traded till mid year after Webster has proven to be on the way back and injury free.

The path of least resistance here is to hold Batum’s role as is for the first half of the season and split the backup SF minutes between Webster and Outlaw until the trade deadline.

Center: If Greg Oden reaches his potential, this team is unstoppable. What are the obstacles? The biggest obstacle facing Greg Oden is Greg Oden. Will he remain injury free? Will he develop better footwork, a little jump hook and regain his athleticism? I don’t know, but the team is committed, he’s not going anywhere and there’s nothing to be done about it except wait and see.

The path of least resistance is to enjoy the ride.

Backup power forward: use Sergio, draft picks, the trade exception, the cap space to bring in a guy. There’s lots of guys. Joel Freeland maybe.

The path of least resistance here is to let Pritchard find a role player. He can do that.

That’s it. No more is needed. The window will open in 2010. Oh, Channing will leave, Blake at some point will be replaced, Shavlik and Ruffin will be empty roster slots for a couple of rookies, stuff will happen. It will be fun.

Oden drops below the radar

raoulduke — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 02:15:16 -0000

Between Darius, Roy's injury, Aldridge's stepped up play, Bayless getting some run there's been a lot to talk about.

One thing we haven't been talking about much is Greg Oden. This is a good thing.

The unrealistic expectations bubble has burst. The early injury and the foul trouble and the blocked shots, and the ubiquitous traveling calls have pretty much demolished all hopes for an instant breakout and immediately elevating the Blazers toward a deep playoff run. And that's a good thing too.

Whether we wanted to believe it or not, the expectations were always unrealistic. So was the deep playoff run even if Oden had delivered as feverishly dreamed.

So what are we left with?

A physically dominant rookie who no longer seems afraid of his knee. A guy who is starting to show signs of the elevation we hoped for. A big man, who finally, can stay with Aldridge running up and down the court as he showed against Golden State. The lumbering is gone. A rookie who's footwork is showing signs of coming along. A big man who is learning to keep his arms straight up on defense and not to bring the ball too low on offense. A player who can dribble while backing down and who can get an assist passing out off a double team. A player who we're no longer waiting on for the latest injury news. A man who changes shots just by being in the lane.

It's all there. It's still inconsistent, we see it in flashes, but it's all there.

And the best thing is, it kind of snuck up on us while we weren't looking. He's going to be just fine.

Trade Forum

raoulduke — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 21:16:45 -0000

Trade Forum

Celtics Blog has a trade forum, seperate from the discussion forums for trade proposals. It looks like the feature is supported by SB Nation. Something to consider.

Let's Get Real

raoulduke — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 18:57:21 -0000

Roy = two years of NBA play, 1st year, missed about a third of the season due to injury

LMA = rookie year surgery, mop up minutes behind Zach, so he's got 1 + full year of NBA experience

Sergio = nice rookie year, spot minutes his second year, 2 - years NBA experience

Oden = rookie, coming off major surgery

Batum = rookie

Fernandez = rookie

Webster = starting SF, injured not playing

How good should this team be? How deep do you think they should be going in the playoffs

In the entire recorded history of man has a team this young done this well? Seriously. I'd like to see another NBA example of a team like this, doing as well or better than this team.

OT - Civility & Typos...

raoulduke — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 02:21:52 -0000

My first fanpost and I doubt that I'll actually make it to 300 words.

Here we go. I've hung around BE for about a year, have been posting a couple of months. I'm actually not new to online communities, just new to this one. I've seen several succeed and even more fail. The first sure sign of failure is when civility begins to lapse.

Dave has done a great job of creating an interesting, upbeat site where reasonable standards of civility are upheld. I moderate a couple of online conversation forums on politics and social issues and I steer folks to BE as an example of how you can have high standards and still be interesting.

We have it all here: in depth discussion about something we're passionate about, good hosting, and a slew of really witty, well honed writers making comments.

One of the maxims I've always held to is that it is the conversation that matters. I'd rather see posts come freely and expressively than have writers hold back or wordsmith the thing to death. To me that means, just write. Don't worry about the spelling or the grammar overly much. Read for content, not to nit pick the writer.

There's been a lot of that lately, some of it in good humor, some I'm not so sure of. But it represents a step backwards from civility and being welcoming to many points of view. So, IMHO, as a relative new member and without standing, really, to chastize anyone, I'd appreciate it if we'd knock it off.