SB Nation User Blog: rastronomicals

Coastal Texans Stay Safe and Take Care

rastronomicals — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 12:45:52 -0000

Reading on Time magazine how some people are scared for the city of Houston as Ike nears the Texas coast, and all I can think about are those Texans whom I know and those who I don't from this site. I'm not exactly certain how much hurricane preparedness is ingrained into the fabric of Texas Gulf Coast life, but if it's anything like South Florida, you should all be aware about the storm shutters and the masking tape and the water and the batteries and all the rest of the things you need to do to prepare for a storm and its aftermath. And I certainly hope that any and all of my friends here affected are going to take these steps, no matter what last minute changes in direction Ike might take. Wilma in 2005 didn't do all that much damage to my area, but it still knocked out power for three weeks, and though the National Guard stepped in with ice and water, you;'d better believe I was glad I made the preparations. And of course I still remember Andrew in the early '90's, when South Florida after being spared for nearly 30 years, was caught somewhat complacent as the Cat 5 storm came ashore. Anyway, just wanted to say to those Astrofans here who even MIGHT be affected: please make the preparations necessary for this storm, and please stay safe.

If You Hadn't Seen, Berkman Leads the NL In RBI

rastronomicals — Mon, 05 May 2008 00:27:48 -0000

If You Hadn't Seen, Berkman Leads the NL In RBI

with 31, and his 31 through May 4 is the second highest seasonal total of his career through that date

In '06, when he went on to break the club's seasonal RBI mark, he had 36 through the 4th of May.

My goodness, a two-run lead and we can't even get out of the stinkin' inning. That's unacceptable,...

rastronomicals — Thu, 01 May 2008 12:54:22 -0000

My goodness, a two-run lead and we can't even get out of the stinkin' inning. That's unacceptable, and it won't happen again

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=280430129

Thirty Runs, Three Games

rastronomicals — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:46:57 -0000

Maybe we're going to have an offense worth writing home about this year after all. Lifted up on the bootstraps of Miguel Tejada, the Astros had another huge offensive performance in Cincy last night, featuring a 7-run fourth inning, and have now scored 30 runs in their past 3 games.

This is the 40th time in franchise history that the team has scored 30 runs over three consecutive games, and it's the first time the team has managed it since August 29th of 2006, when another 7-run inning, this one in the 8th vs. the Brewers put the capper on a three game runscoring spree that had started in Pittsburgh Last year's team once scored at least nine runs in four straight games, but because in the one game they didn't score 9, they scored 10, never scored more than 28 in any 3game period during the 4-game streak.

The 2008 Astros become the first team in franchise history to manage such a three-game streak in the month of April. Previously the earliest any Houston team had managed the feat was in 1974, when the Lee May-led 'Stros scored 33 runs in a three game period that ended on May 1st. That particular streak featured an 18 - 2 pasting of the Cubs in which May went 5 for 5 with 2 homers.

3-Game, 30-Run Stretches by Month

April	1
May	8
June	3
July	14
August	8
September	6
Total	40

Of the 40 times the feat has been accomplished, 36 of them have come since Jeff Bagwell was a rookie in 1991, and 17 have come since the team left the Astrodome after the 1999 season. It was the 2000 team that accomplished the feat most, doing it 9 times, despite not notching their first streak until July 24th. During the month of September when the team was long out of contention, Richard Hidalgo had perhaps the best month in team history, and the team, ignited by Reeshard, had five individual streaks where they averaged ten runs a game for the month.

Only two other teams have had seasons in which they managed as many as five such streaks: the 1994 team--led by the other great month in team history, Jeff Bagwell's July--had six, and the 1999 team had five.

And again, none of these teams got rolling until the hot summer rolled around. Perhaps even greater things are in store for this team, having managed such a thing in April.

First check might be today, when the team sees if they can become the first team since the 2004 team to average ten runs a game over 4 straight games.

Rich Waltz on Brandon Backe

rastronomicals — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 13:59:33 -0000

During last night's game, the Marlins' announcer Rich Waltz told a story about Brandon Backe that I'd never heard before, that in a high school playoff game vs. Spring, Backe threw 213 pitches.

Waltz then cracked that that was probably why Backe entered pro ball as an infielder, and then his partner Tommy Hutton laughed that it was probably why Backe had Tommy John surgery. . . . he was joking, but he was also probably right.

Had anyone ever heard this story before? I never knew that Backe was a pitcher in high school, or that his school in Galveston had been so successful.

And this almost goes without saying, but I think that any high school coach who has his star pitcher throw 200 pitches should be taken out back and shot . . . .

Down To Our Last Out, Our Last Strike

rastronomicals — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 15:56:06 -0000

When I woke up this morning, ESPN told me that the Astros were down to their last strike before rallying for the win off Hoffmann and (of course) this made me wonder when the last time it was that we came back after being down to our last strike.

The answer is a pleasant one: June 28, 2007 when there were two outs and no-one on in the 11th for Biggio when he hit a two-strike infield single. Pence would double and Berkman would be HBP before Lee hit the walkoff slam off Fuentes.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playbyplay?gameId=270628118&full=1&inning=0

The next night the Astros would be down to their last out (but not their last strike) before Loretta hit the walkoff off Fuentes. Hopefully this bodes well for today's game in San Diego, the walkoffs in bunches thing . . . .

Coda

rastronomicals — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 03:00:26 -0000

Hi. How are you?

Although I suspect that I'll drop by to post something (assuming I'm welcome) at certain zeniths or nadirs during the upcoming season, I'm writing this post right now to let you all know that I have decided to resign my proprietor and administrative positions with The Crawfish Boxes as of Friday.

* * * * *

Now, the repressed minimalist within me is once again tugging at my coat sleeve, suggesting that, having come to the point relatively quickly for a change, maybe I should leave things at the 55 words above and hit the road.

I almost did. But I've never been one to use 50 words when 500 would do almost as well, and such is the case here.

First I must say this: I enjoyed my time at The Crawfish Boxes. I most especially enjoyed the camaraderie in the game threads. I enjoyed sharing some of the great moments in team history with people just as enthused about them as me.

Do you remember where you were when Jason Lane caught the flyball that took the Astros to the Series? Or where you were when Luke Scott hit for the cycle? Or when Jeff Bagwell's last ever RBI won a game vs, the Brewers? Or when Biggio had FIVE hits in the game during which he notched his 3000th hit? Or when Woody Williams led the 'Stros to their 30th all-time 1 - 0 road shutout, and only the eleventh time in team history when a) they were held to one run, b) were held to less than five hits, and c) were held to no extra base hits?

OK, I don't expect you to know that last one. And I ain't too sure myself. But on those others, believe me, I know where I was. I was blogging with friends at The Crawfish Boxes. Quite apart from everything about Scoop and Excel and writing itself that I learned while blogging here for the last three years, and quite apart from some of the things, that, well, weren't so much fun, it's those kind of moments that I'll remember most when I consider my time at TCB.

Seriously.

But let me also be frank. When, a couple weeks ago, I first told Tyler Bleszinksi, SBNations' president, and the man who recruited me into the network, about my decision, I wrote that ". . . blogging daily during the season takes a vast amount of energy, and as I consider the upcoming 2008 season, I just can't find it."

Larry Borowsky over at Viva El Birdos suggested that the problem might be burnout, and I won't argue with that. When Tyler brought me on board, he told me it would be a lot of hard work, and if anything, he understated matters. While I still think that introducing features unseen elsewhere like the Game Hero, and the minor league standings, and the crazy graphs and charts I kept was essential in my effort to differentiate TCB on the web from a host of other alternatives you as readers have, in the end such efforts were not sustainable for me over the long haul. Even after I invited StrosBro to co-blog, I still found myself beginning to resent the demands on my time that the site was making.

And that ain't no way to be.

But while I had given some thought to maybe leaving this offseason, and had even mentioned to StrosBro that I might be moving in that direction, it was, to be very honest, The Mitchell Report and its fallout that cinched the decision for me. I've gone on at tiresome length elsewhere, so I'll keep it brief here, but let me that I find the team slogans that talked of "Good Guys" over the past few years rendered just a little laughable, knowing what we now know. And the cynicism with which the Tejada deal was made has literally devastated me, because now I know ownership was complicit, too.

I wrote long posts here and elsewhere defending these people from cynics, and I'll be honest: I feel like a naive fool, I feel like digging my head in the sand where no-one will see me.

I've loved baseball and most especialy the Houston Astros for 21 years, and I'm sure I'll figure out how to keep loving it. If I step back some and just do some thinking for a time, switch off the ESPN, get away for a bit, I'm sure I'll come to some measure of clarity of thought. But right now I feel bitter.

And that ain't no way to be.

More to the point, though, I feel disconnected from the mainstream view on this whole steroid thing. It's been made clear to me that the people who come here want to read about baseball and the Houston Astros; they don't anymore want to simply shake their fists at the sky in anger: They wanna talk 2008 Astros baseball.

But even though I know I should do so, I can't let things go.

And that ain't no way to be.

Not when the site had attracted an audience distinguished by both its intelligence and its graciousness. During my time with the site (which included, and always will include as I look back in future years, the first World Series appearance in Astros history), I was over and over again struck by the idea that the readers here knew much more about the Astros than I did. To my credit, I think, I spoke of that a few times, and emphasized I was just a schmuck with an opinion. Thanks for reading my site anyway.

And thanks to site stalwarts littlevisigoth and saylinara and StrosDux (wherever she is) who helped prop the site up when it just wasn't all that well known. As I leave, and hand proprietorship of the site over to StrosBro, the site is in pretty good shape. It ain't no Bleed Cubbie Blue, and never will be, but it has found a solid niche. That niche would not exist without the support of those early readers. So double thanks to them.

One good thing about all this is that StrosBro is both eager and enthusiastic about continuing. As I said to Larry, "[h]is intelligence and enthusiasm and low bullshit-tolerance will serve him well." Unlike myself, StrosBro has kept up with the news on the upcoming SBNation 2.0, and I know he looks forward to bringing you a new season with new players on a new platform. And I am sure he will continue to do what you've seen him do so well over the last year: tell you what he thinks about the state of the team, in plain English.

StrosBro had asked me what I was gonna do with all my free time, and I guess I can speak of that for a sentence or two in my one last burst of self-indugence. First thing is that Melanie's now got seniority enough at her job where she's now got Sundays off. We actually saw two musicals over the past two weekends; but in short, I want to spend more time with her. I've also got the Astroland website that I for the most part neglected while I was prattling on over here. My goal is to list every damned baseball card I've got on the site, and do it before I'm 50 years old, when I'm gonna sell the whole kit and kaboodle, and hopefully bring in enough from some collector even more lunatic than myself to take a nice trip to someplace far away with Melanie.

And--breaking my revelry, back in the here and now where trips to a distant land are still a dream--a friend of mine who, to use Roger Clemens' phrasing, "doesn't give a rat's ass" about baseball has been bugging me for the last couple years to start a music blog. I told him maybe when I was done with Crawfish, and now I might just do it: write 3 or 4 paragraphs about this or that freaky and obscure song once a week or so. It won't be big time, not like The Crawfish Boxes, but it could be fun. If I do get started, I'll be sure to come over and beg Stros Bro for a link.

* * * * *

Thanks again to all who ever read or commented. It was not only a pleasure; it was illuminating.

Please, No More Clemens Posts!

rastronomicals — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 03:21:28 -0000

Another Roger Clemens post, I apologize. He deserves some coverage here, but the way its been going, the ongoing story of the Rocket, and his effort to convince us that the Mitchell Report has accused him wrongly, is the only thing I'm writing about.

I should be writing about the 2008 Astros, but every time I consider this team, how it includes Miguel Tejada, but not Chad Qualls, not Luke Scott, not Adam Everett, I develop a case of terminal apathy. I think about how our new shortstop has shown no interest in clearing his name, and then I think about the player who has.

I want to believe Clemens, I'll admit it. Separate and apart from the facts, such as they are, I'll admit it. I want it as bad as anything. I spent 20 years believing within reason that if most baseball players were not necessarily trustworthy, loyal, helpful, friendly, courteous, kind, obedient, cheerful, thrifty, brave, and reverent, that at least they were clean.

Silly me. But between now and the time that the first Biggio accusations are published, it titillates my sense of righteousness to watch Clemens as he protests, and I get carried along.

When Clemens spits through clenched teeth that this isn't about records and heroes and numbers, this is about his health, I'm like, you go, Roger! There are times when I listen to the man that I am absolutely sure he's telling the truth.

And, though I generally lean in his direction, there are other times when I'm not so sure.

Anyway, here's some more info about a ballplayer who didn't play for the 'Stros last year, and won't be playing for 'em this year, either.

Sorry 'bout that.

* * * * *

In the Mitchell Report, after noting that Brian McNamee claims to have injected Clemens for the first time sometime after June 10, 1998, it is written that ". . . according to McNamee, from the time that McNamee injected Clemens with Winstrol through the end of the 1998 season, Clemens’ performance showed remarkable improvement."

In a case full of shadowy motivations, and unconfirmable accusations, in that short sentence we have a rare example of a statement that can be checked for truth.

McNamee tells the Mitchell investigators he shot Clemens full of Winstrol, sounds like in late June of 1998, then he says that Clemens' performance got a lot better.

They're still arguing about the first part, but what about the second part? Did Clemens' performance get better in the second half of 1998?

Well, yeah.

**Roger Clemens, First Half/Second Half Splits, 1998**
Split	G	IP	W	L	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	WHIP
April - June	17	111-2/3	9	6	9.11	4.19	0.56	1.28
July - August	16	123-0/3	11	0	11.56	2.63	0.29	0.93

Shit, that IS remarkable improvement.

Though it may only mean McNamee did his research, the numbers suggest that something happened in late June/early July of 1998 to kick the Rocket into gear.

A B-12 injection, and some xylocaine? Or Winstrol and Deca-Durabolin?

Here's ERA and WHIP, for the same season, broken down by individual months.

**Roger Clemens, WHIP and ERA by Months, 1998**
Month	ERA	WHIP
April	3.62	1.24
May	3.43	1.26
June	4.04	1.32
July	1.73	1.05
August	0.90	0.70
September	2.70	1.12

Notice that the ERAs and the WHIPs Clemens put up in the three second-half month were each better than his best mark of the first half. Or, in the Microsoft Excel Logic I had to use to find these results, his worst score in the second half, in both categories, was better than his best score of the first half.

1998 is the only year of Roger Clemens' career for which those things can be said. Clemens simply never had another year in which he showed so much second-half improvement.

This fact may be innocuous; McNamee may have merely picked up on it in trying to make the most verisimilitudinous accusation.

On the other hand, it may be very damning.

McNamee implied to the Mitchell investigators that ". . . Clemens used performance enhancing substances during the second half of the season so that he would not tire," and McNamee claimed to the Mitchell investigators that he injected Clemens in 1998, 1999, and 2001.

In reviewing Clemens career, only once, as has been seen, did he post monthly ERA AND monthly WHIPs in the second half that each one surpassed the bests he'd posted in the first half. That year was 1998.

However, Clemens did show the same kind of improvement in his ERAs only in the second halves of both 1990 and 1996, seasons during which Clemens and McNamee were not acquainted.

**Roger Clemens, WHIP and ERA by Months, 1990**
Month	ERA	WHIP
April	3.09	1.00
May	2.54	0.98
June	2.38	1.32
July	1.00	1.04
August	1.09	0.97
September	1.59	1.50

**Roger Clemens, WHIP and ERA by Months, 1996**
Month	ERA	WHIP
April	4.17	1.55
May	4.23	1.16
June	4.14	1.49
July	3.98	1.40
August	1.85	1.23
September	3.43	1.19

Although his second-half WHIPs didn't um, whip, those he posted in the first halves of these years, Clemens showed a good deal of improvement in the second half of these two seasons, as well. It may even lead you to believe that if you pitch long enough, even at a high level, you'll run into some slumps, and some streaks, too, and that sometimes they'll butt up against each other.

I'll spare you the numbers, but I also took a look at years in which all but one of Clemens' second-half months were better than his first half-months. The following table summarizes what I found.

Years in Which All Second-Half Months
--But One--
Showed Improvement over the Best First Half Mark
Stat	Years
ERA	1987, 2000
WHIP	1987, 2000, 2002, 2004

The effect is not as drastic for these years as it was for 1990, 1996, and 1998, but it's fair to say, Clemens was better in the second half of these years than he was in the first half. Was this due to drugs as well?

McNamee says he injected Clemens in 2000, although we're left to our own devices in trying to figure out what the deal is with 1987, 2002, and 2004, when he of course pitched for Houston.

* * * * * I think that, after all, this big mess I just made on your computer screen is something like the Mcnamee-Clemens phone call: you're free to take a stab at what it might mean, but in the end, the final leap has to be one of supposition, or even of faith. I've given some evidence that suggests Roger Clemens cheated during some of the years in question in The Mitchell Report. I also give some evidence which could suggest, using the same logic, that he cheated in years in which we know for a fact that Brian McNamee injected Clemens with nothing at all.

I'll admit it may not be that meaningful, but I'm glad that I at least shared my data. . . .

Looking For A Working Link

rastronomicals — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 01:11:19 -0000

to an audio clip of the reputed McNamee-Clemens conversation.

The Chronicle link is not working.

I listen to the ESPN radio station out of Palm Beach, 70 or 80 miles north of where I work and commute, and lots of times late in the days, their broadcasts are seriously compromised by static.

Today as I drove home, I could tell the station was playing a recording of a telephone conversation, and gradually, in between the electronic fuzz, it became clear that they had somehow gotten a copy of the phone call between Clemens and his ex-trainer that people had been talking about this morning.

I heard this and that, including the voice that's supposed to be McNamee saying "What do you want me to do?" more than a couple times.

But I missed a lot.

When I got home I found out that it was actually Clemens who provided the media with the tape, before his press conference, but I've been unable to find anyone who's actually posted the audio on their site (although the Chronicle appears to do so, without actually coming up with the goods).

Thanks.

[Update]
Link to the phone call from 790thesportsanimal.com.

[Reply to Update] StrosBro is the man, in case I haven't said.

About Roger Clemens' Lawyer

rastronomicals — Fri, 28 Dec 2007 17:11:56 -0000

I'm pretty sure Roger Clemens took steroids. If someone like George Mitchell says he did, that's gonna carry a lot of weight with me.

But seeing Clemens go on in high escutcheon and in withering self-righteousness over the last week or so, I have to say I'm a little less sure than I was the day the Report came out.

If Clemens were playing a game of Texas Hold 'em, you'd say he's gone all in. Which in its own way is worthy of at least some respect. It's easy to say that Clemens is bluffing, but now, you have to recognize he's gone and bet it all on a single hand.

People would have forgiven the Rocket if he'd meekly given some kind of bullshit apology like Pettitte went and did. For the good of the team, whatever the fuck. But if Clemens is subsequently found to be lying now, even as he makes his angry point-by-point denials, even as he does the interview with Mike Wallace, even as he hires Rusty Hardin, well, people will never ever forgive him.

He'll go down in baseball history as a villain worse than Bonds.

The New York Times today has an excellent profile of Hardin, and I gotta say after reading it, I'm even more interested in how all this turns out than I was before.