Ok look, I don't post here often, but if you looked at my past couple of posts, you'd notice that I'm normally the annoyingly optimistic person. Before the start of the season, I was the fan defending Tony Sparano, defending the recent moves of the FO, and saying that we had the talent to still be a contender.

And boy was I horribly, terribly, absolutely, definitively, conclusively, unconditionally, brutally, vehemently WRONG.

My faith in the Dolphins has never been lower then it is right now. I have less faith in this 0-6 team then I ever had in 2007, even all the way up to 0-13.

I'm not even entirely sure if I'm watching the Miami Dolphins or the Miami FC. Is it even a football team out there?

Continue reading this post »

The #1 problem with rookies in the NFL, is that out of the gate, their expectations are far too high. Sure you will get the rare Jake Long or Adrian Peterson who comes in and makes an immediate, huge impact, but the majority of rookies must be developed into NFL players. Good examples of this for the Dolphins are players like Koa Misi, Vontae Davis, and Sean Smith. Vontae and Sean were ok their first season, did much better last season, and are poised to be one of the best corner tandems in the league this coming season. Koa did ok his first season, is poised to do much better this season, etc.

So in addition to my Grades, each position is going to get an addition score that I call my "Impact Score." On a scale of 1-10 this score measures how quickly I think this player can make an impact for the Dolphins. A 10 is a player who I think can make an "Adrian Peterson" impact in his first year, 9 is someone who can make the Pro Bowl first year, 7 or 8 is someone who can start immediately and be a solid player, 5 to 6 is someone who can start if we don't have better options but is better suited for a backup, 3 to 4 is a developmental player with potential to start in the future, and 2 is a practice squad and 1 is "WTF were we thinking?" player.

Another issue with the game of football in general that people tend to forget, is that the success of any one player is highly predicated on the supporting cast he has around him. With the exception of Barry Sanders, I think you would be hard pressed to name many Running Backs who excelled with bad offensive lines. I feel like the biggest reason high-first round QB picks fail is because the majority of the time they are going to teams with poor defensive lines, poor rushing attacks, and mediocre receivers, and are immediately expected to turn the team around. That's like asking somebody to build a house with these:

I've said in on this site a hundred times before, I am a believer in Chad Henne. I'll be honest, when we first drafted him I wasn't too high on him, but I've watched him grow and improve over the years, and now I believe.

I blame the majority of last season's lack of production on O-line injuries and a complete lack of running game production. I'm not sure what happened to Ricky and Ronnie last year, and some of their troubles may also be attributed to the offensive line, but they sucked. Sure their average yardage of 3.7 and 4.5 is about in the right range and all that, but it seemed like every time we needed them to make a play - they never could. Couldn't get first downs, couldn't get into the endzone, couldn't turn a second and long into a third and short, they just lost that "playmaker" feel completely.

I do feel like if we put all the right tools in Chad Henne's hands, then this could be a terrific football team.

So with that all said, what my take on the picks for the 2011 Draft Class?

Round 1, Pick #15 - Mike Pouncey. (Disclaimer: I'm a Gator Fan.)

Grade: B+ Impact Score: 9

I think Mike Pouncey is a very good Guard. While next to his brother Maurkice at Florida when Maurkice was the center, they were a great tandem, but once Mike was moved to Center.... ouch. He can't snap. I don't like his snapping motion and accuracy at all, and I feel like when he was required to start snapping he completely lost his explosion on the line. My brother played Center from the time he was 7 years old, through middle school, high school, and 2 years of college. In that entire time, he had 2 botched snaps. Mike Pouncey has 13 in one game, and consistently had between 2 and 4 per game for the rest of the season. On average you only get around 55 offensive snaps per game, if you are right off the bat ruining 7.2% of those chances, then you aren't going to be a very good football team. In addition, the Center knows when the ball is going to be snapped, so he should be the most explosive off the ball. Watch some of his tape from last season, and you'll notice that he is often the last offensive player to "pop-up," most centers should be the first.

However, when he isn't playing Center, Mike is an explosive, very strong, very agile Guard, and has the potential to Pro Bowl in his first season. Just putting him at Center completely wastes his potential in my opinion. Between this addition and injuries from last season clearing up, I feel like we will have a very good O-line this season.

Round 2, Pick #30 - Daniel Thomas

Grade: C Impact Score: 6

My jury is still out on this kid. He looks ok. I can definitely see the knocks against him in that he runs a little too upright, seems a little too stiff, doesn't have great vision, and has some ball control issues. But I can also see flashes of explosiveness and a good combination of size, speed, and power. I feel like he is going to very much fall into the "it depends on his supporting cast" category because if he does have a good offensive line in front of him, and Daboll uses him correctly, a "one-cut" runner as Matty described him can be dangerous. Just look at Denver, Mike Shanahan made a million "one-cut" runners look like super-stars.

Round 4, Pick #14 - Edmund Gates.

Grade: A Impact Score: 7

I love this kid. First off he was a huge steal for us for him to fall this low. Second he has blazing-fast football speed. The term "football speed" is important here because that is how he looks on the field in full pads. How many guys have we seen turn in sub 4.40 40-yard dashes at the combine and that speed doesn't translate to the field? Watching this guy on tape he just made it look easy, corners had to play 5-7 yards off of him because they were so afraid of his speed, and when they backed off enough, the team just threw a screen to him for an easy 5 yards. He is exactly the kind of weapon we needed on our offense, and this is a terrific pick. Yes, he is still very raw in terms of routes, and I'm not terribly impressed with his intelligence, so I don't see him becoming a super star, but he should greatly help our offense if he can fill the role he is intended for.

Round 6, Pick #9 - Charles Clay.

Grade: D Impact Score: 2

I'm not impressed. At all. This is one of those guys that if you watch only his highlight tapes then he looks amazing, but then you look at the rest of the game and he's ehhhhhhh. I watched a few of his games and he is very much the kind of guy that doesn't try very hard if he isn't getting the ball. His blocking is lazy and lackadaisical, he frequently gets confused by blitz, he doesn't "sell" the fakes at all, he doesn't play to the snap, and he generally just looks "lost" on the field quite often to me. People keep talking about him as a "H-back" or a "mismatch TE," but to play in either one of those positions you have to be just as good of an actor as you are a player, and I just don't see that in him...... at all. I see a "me first" player who won't be on the team in 3 seasons. The only reason this grade isn't an F is because it was the 6th round.

Round 7, Pick #28 - Frank Kearse.

Grade: B Impact Score: 4

This grading gets a B just because it was the 7th round, and I feel like we got a decent value for where he landed. He has very good size and performed well, and has the frame and build to be a good player if he has the attitude and work ethic to achieve it. Being named to the second-team all-SWAC is ok, but if a player is coming from a small conference, you would hope he would be dominating it to play at the NFL level. Developmental pick for sure, and likely to end up on the practice squad, but with decent potential if he wants it bad enough.

Round 7, Pick #32 - Jimmy Wilson.

Grade: B+ Impact Score: 6

At the very least this kid will be an outstanding special teams player and will add some depth at CB as the #4 or #5. That kind of value in the 7th round is incredible. He has the skills and potential to be a solid CB, but fell pretty far due to his "character concerns." I've read a lot about this kid and I really do believe that it was in self-defense, and I feel like the kid really does have a good character. Even if he doesn't work out though, it's not that bad of a waste because it was a 7th round pick. Win/Win for the Dolphins.

Overall: B.

I think we filled some positions on offense that we desperately needed with Pouncey and Gates, got some good value in Kearse and Wilson, and got someone who could be a serviceable back in the right circumstances with Daniel Thomas. If all works out as planned, this really was a terrific draft and is really going to help Chad Henne succeed in the future. I just hope the FO proves me wrong with Clay.

Ok, I'm just going to say it.

I like Coach Sparano. And I still like Chad Henne.

Hear that? That's the sound of 80% of the Dolphins fan base fainting.

Now, that's not to say they aren't without fault. In fact, I still place a good chunk of the blame on Sparano for the entire team's poor performance this year. For one, he liked playing shift-the-Lineman a bit too much and never really let them gel in the preseason or during the regular season. For an Offensive Line coach, he needs to be able to predict the best lineup early in the preseason, and have it set before the final the two games.

And if what Ricky said about him is even half true, he does have to back off just a bit and stop trying to micromanage everything. Attention to detail is a terrific quality in a coach, and something I definitely want to see if I'm an owner or a fan, but if it is to the level that the players feel like you don't trust them to do their job and you don't just let the players play, it can definitely become a problem. I know that the NFL is becoming very much a finesse game, and all coaches want to control every detail, but when it comes down to it, some of the best plays you see in the NFL are really just letting the players go out and make something happen, because frankly, that's their job.

But, you have to remember, Sparano is new at this. Remember Belichick's first head coaching stint in Cleveland? Or how about Tony Dungys first 3 years in Tampa Bay? Jim Fisher in Tennessee? Tom Landry with the Cowboys?Chuck Noll with the Steelers?

Here's some records for you so you don't have to look them up

 

Belichick ||| 6-10 ||| 7-9 ||| 7-9 ||| 11-5 (lost in AFC Divisional)

Dungy ||| 6-10 ||| 10-6 (lost in divisional) ||| 8-8 ||| 11-5 (lost in NFC Champ)

Fisher ||| 1-5 ||| 7-9 ||| 8-8 ||| 8-8 ||| 8-8 ||| 13-3 (lost in super bowl)

Shanahan ||| (with LA) 7-9 ||| 1-3 ||| (then DEN) 8-8 ||| 13-3 (lost in divisional) ||| (Back to Back Super Bowls)

Landry ||| 0-11 ||| 4-9 ||| 5-8 ||| 4-10 ||| 5-8 ||| 7-7 ||| 10-3 (lost in champ, started streak of consistent contenders)

Chuck Noll ||| 1-13 ||| 5-9 ||| 6-8 ||| 11-3 (lost in divisional) (4 Super Bowls in next 7 years)

 

These are all examples of coaches that were horrible to start with, but ended up being pretty darn good because an NFL owner decided to keep them around, and most of them reached that first success in their 4th year.

Has Sparano made some mistakes? Yes, absolutely. The key is going to be if he learns from them. I love how Sparano is a non-nonsense kind of guy. I love that the players admire and respect him, but he's not a pushover like Cam Cam was. I love his "play the basics and avoid mistakes" mentality. I love the way he interacts with the media and stands up for his players. As long as Sparano can learn from his mistakes much the same way a rookie player has to learn from their's, I think he can be a terrific coach in the long run. Just have some faith.

Now, Henne.

We all know the kid has a cannon for an arm. We also know based on Brandon Marshall's recent comments that he is a very intelligent QB who goes through he reads and plays "by the book." We also know by the reports from last offseason that he is a tirelessly hard worker, who spends a lot of time watching film and working to improve his game. I'm sure spending time with Pennington has drilled that into his mind by now.

But you know what I think Mr. Henne needs to do to improve? LIGHTEN UP A BIT. His best games this season were the ones where he had a "eff it all" attitude and started gun slinging the ball. Of course here is where pundits will say things like "oh but it's a finesse league now, you have to have timing, blah blah blah." Tell that to Brett Favre (pre-2010 season). Even Tom Brady lets things loose every once in awhile. Look, being a "System QB" is great and all, but you have to be willing to step outside of that box every once in awhile to keep the defense guessing. Because guess what? You know that "book" part of the "by the book" mentality? EVERYONE HAS READ IT. Playing "by the book" all the time is exactly what made our offense so predictable this season. Open it up, take some chances, and let your playmakers prove their worth on the field.

What the NFL is losing now, by moving to this new "robot" mentality, is player pride. Player pride is, in my opinion, the #1 most important aspect in the game of football. It's 4th and  inches in the opponents red zone. You're down by a touchdown in the 3rd quarter. The "book" says to send the FG team out and trust your defense to stop them. But do you know what that really does? It tells your O-line that you don't think they can get a 6 inch push on the D-line. It's 1st and Goal from the 2 yard line, and you throw 3 incomplete passes and kick a FG. This tells your RBs that you don't think they can gain 2 yards. You're up by 6 points in the 4th quarter and you go into a prevent defense, this tells your defense that you don't think they can get the job done the way they were playing before.

Football players are not mathmaticians. They are not strategists. They did not grow up dreaming up reading the coverage perfectly to take the 3rd option on their route to slip through the zone and score the game winning touchdown. They grew up dreaming about going deep into the endzone on a streak route in triple coverage to jump up and get the ball to score the game winning touchdown. Now I don't recommend throwing into triple coverage.... ever.... but it illustrates what I'm talking about here. You know that feeling you get when you juke out 3 guys, stiff arm another, and completely own your opponent on the way to a touchdown in Madden? Players crave that feeling too, it's what they play for. People complain about players losing their "fire," and I say it isn't the players fault. It's the coaches for trying to turn this into a game that is more about the coach's strategies then the players abilities.

With that in mind now, did you see fire in the eyes of the Dolphins this year? Or did you see a team with plenty of young talent, that felt held back by "the book" and vanilla playcalling? Did you see players that were proud of themselves, looking for the next big play they were going to land? Or did you see players that were just going through the grind because they were sick of overthinking everything.

So this goes out to the entire Dolphins organization. Stop trying to turn the team into a machine. This isn't chess. It isn't Othello, and it sure as hell isn't Baseball. There is a time for strategy, and there is a time to just play the dang game.

We don't need sweeping changes (besides a new OC). We have the pieces in place. We have the talents and skill sets available. Let go of the Bill "everything must be perfect" Parcells mentality and bring back some memories of playing on Friday Nights.

Play the game. Don't let it play you.

Just a reminder for everyone that Ricky's documentary, "Run Ricky Run," is going to be on ESPN's 30-for-30 tonight at 8pm EST. 

You can find more info about the documentary and some previews of it here: http://30for30.espn.com/film/run-ricky-run.html

I don't know about you guys, but I'm really excited about this. Looks like it could be very interesting. Finally get to see the whole story, and not just how the media wanted to spin it to us.

Ok, bear with me here for a second. I have a crazy idea in my head, and I'm basically just putting it to words. 

What do you think about moving Channing Crowder to OLB?

I'm sitting here looking at our draft and our UFAs, and I'm seeing a bunch of guys that are considered inside LBs, and I'm wondering, what the hell, I thought OLB was the bigger need?

The FO already showed us that they aren't unwilling to move a player's position, so what if they are also thinking about moving Channing to OLB?

Here's my rationale. Me and my closest football buddy have talked about this plenty of times. Athletically, Channing is a freak. He's extremely agile for his size. His problem comes in the intelligence and instincts department, often getting caught out of position or having trouble reading the play as it develops.

He was most effective at Florida in what I call the "JKTFB LB" position. As the JKTFB LB, a coach puts a player on the field and tells him to Just Kill The F$%&ing Ball!

So what if, just maybe, one of these ILB guys works out, and we move Channing to OLB on passing situations, and just tell him to Murder the QB? No complicated scheme for him to work through, hell, I'm not even asking him to think. I just want to let go of the leash, and let him murder whoever has the ball.

What do you guys think? Am I crazy?

Just a thought.

Poll

With this idea, I think that ratenxs

3%

is a genius.

8 votes

41%

might be on to something

88 votes

23%

is crazy.

49 votes

31%

is Matt Millen.

68 votes

213 votes | Poll has closed

According to NFL.com

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d80fbaa5d&template=without-video-with-comments&confirm=true

The actual schedules haven't been released yet, but the NFL is giving us this teaser.

I think someone had posted before that the AFC East was playing the NFC East, right? We have a pretty tough season ahead of us fellas.

I have to say though, I hate seeing the Steelers and Cardinals at #29 and #27, after they played eachother in the Super Bowl.

In case anyone has been living under a rock during this free agency, you'll notice that some high-profile players have been released by the their teams. Not necessarily "high profile" as in the best players in the game, but rather as in players that have defined the face of their franchises for a long time.

 

Continue reading this post »

Just thought I'd share this with everyone.

http://www.phinzmania.com/forums/view.php?pg=salarycap

I've got a lovely bunch of words to write, deedle-ee-dee-dee, there they are a counting to 75, dum dum dum, big ones small ones some as big as your head, give them a twist, a flick of the wrist, that's what the phins fan said. I've got a lovely bunch of words written.

This is going to be a long one.

Sometime around 2005, I was surfing Amazon.com for some football books, and came across something interesting. It was called the "2005 Football Prospectus" written by a group of guys calling themselves the Football Outsiders. I bought the book, read, and thoroughly enjoyed it. They had put together a group of people to study film and record statistics far beyond what the NFL normally records, and came out with two interesting statistical numbers, DVOA and DYAR.

Now, I'm not going to get into what these are, as you can go to their website, www.footballoutsiders.com and read to your hearts content. What I do want to get into, is the effect of these statistics on football, and what statistics really mean to football.

Continue reading this post »

I know this is an NFL forum, but I think there's enough future NFL players in this game to qualify.

Ohio State and the rest of the Big 10 need to be relegated to Division III. I mean my god, they looked like a high school team against USC tonight. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if some Florida high school teams could actually beat OSU this year the way they played in that game. (Put Miami Northwestern or St. Thomas Aquinas vs. Ohio State, hehehe)

I mean, what else do you expect from the Ohio State Chokeyes, but damn.

At least this means we won't have to watch another SEC team crush OSU in the National Championship game again. But it does mean we have to endure listening to how great USC is while they trounce the rest of the Pac 9+1.

Check out this little game .

I'm usually not one for mmorpgs, especially ones that don't active involve any action, but this is one of those interesting little things that take about 5-7 minutes a day and can be quite entertaining.

You create your own players and set their skills and train them, then sign on with teams that compete against eachother.

It's all free, so there's no worries there. The only thing that'll cost you is if you want to buy and build your own team, but all of the teams for this season are already bought anyways.

I've already created 2 players, an OT named Wayne Moore and a DE named Bill Stanfill (those names sound familiar to anyone? :P) And I'm starting to enjoy it.

Anyways, check it out. It's a nice little time waster while most of us wait for our real time waster - fantasy football - to get started again.

I love TMQ. If you've never read it, it's here: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/080429&sportCat=nfl&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab4pos1

Gregg Easterbrook is probably one of the best writers ESPN has.

Anyways, he makes this comment about the Jets:

Jersey/B Jets: Net of the Jets' Dewayne Robertson deals: Jersey/B traded two first-round draft choices to obtain Robertson, and just unloaded him for a conditional late-round choice in 2009. The picks the Jets gave up were the 13th and 22nd selections in 2003. Had the Jets simply stayed at 13th and 22nd that year, and taking into account their needs then, they could have selected Ty Warren or Troy Polamalu 13th and Dallas Clark 22nd. Imagine how much better the Jets would be today.

Sometimes, making fun of the Jets is just too easy.....

If anyone here has enjoyed my ramblings in The Phinsider diaries, I've joined The South Florida Fan as the main Dolphins contributer, so you can head over there to see my blogs. (http://thesouthfloridafan.blogspot.com)

There's a lot of great content there for other Florida teams as well, and ASponge has some big plans, so keep an eye on the place.

Of course I'll still be contributing in the comments for ThePhinsider because I love this place, but any kind of main blog written by me will be posted over there now.

Thanks,

Rate

Prompted by the post about Josh Johnson, I went in search of the round which each starting QB currently in the NFL was drafted. I looked at the QBs for every team in the league last season, and listed every QB that either started a game last season, or has been an NFL starter before (example: B.Johnson). I'm sure I missed a few, but I have a total of 57 QBs listed here, which should definitely be considered a representative sample.

The full list is at the bottom, but here's some roundup stats.

First off, # of QBs by round:

1st---21     2nd---6
3rd---9      4th---3
5th---2      6th---4
8th---1      9th---1
UD---10

Now, your initial reaction would be that, wow, 1st round has the highest number by far, but, keep in mind that the 1st round only makes up 36.8% of all of the QBs. In fact, 2nd day picks (which, note, is now from the 3rd round till the end), make up 35%, and Undrafteds are another  17.5%.

Next, look at the number of active super bowl winning QBs by round.

QB------Rings---Round
Brady-----3-------6
Roeth-----1-------1
P. Man----1-------1
B. John---1-------9
E. Man----1-------1
Favre-----1-------2
Warner----1-------UD

With the exception of Brady, this chart tends to favor the first round guys. But wait. Lets look at all of the Super Bowls since 1970, and see where the winner of each was drafted. Again, the full list is available later, for now, here's a recap chart.

Round---# of SB
1st--------19
2nd--------2
3rd--------5
4th--------1
6th--------5
9th--------2
10th-------2
UD---------2

Again, similar to before. The 1st round only claims 50% of the Super Bowls since 1970. In that chart, note that I counted number of super bowls, so multiple-time winners such as Brady or Montana were counted more then once. This is the chart if you take out multiple winners:

Round---# of SB
1st-------10
2nd-------2
3rd-------2
4th-------1
6th-------3
9th-------2
10th------1
UD--------2

Note that after taking out multiple winners, the first round only has 43% of the QBs.

There's no point here to prove or anything, I just got curious and couldn't find the information readily available anywhere, so decided to do it myself. I'm sure I missed some names, and some numbers may be slightly off since I'm doing this at 1am, so feel free to give me any corrections that you know of.

As for the list, I tried to group QBs with who they were with last season, but the list I was working with included all of the transactions that have already happened, so there's probably a few QBs with the wrong teams, too, but that's not really that important for what I was doing here, anyways.

Finally, I would like to point everyone to this great article by Ted Kluck before last year's draft that studied the risk of drafting each position. Note that QB has the highest bust percentage at 53: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/quarterbacks/070425

I hope everyone finds this interesting. If you can think of any other ways to extrapolate information from this data, please do so, or at least suggest different things to look at. I kind of enjoy researching this kind of stuff, so I may go even further if there's enough interest. Anyways, without further ado, here's the lists. QBs sorted by Team/Division, Super Bowls are by years.

(I'm not sure how this extended copy thing works, you might have to click read more or something like that.)

Continue reading this post »

I'm not sure how much anyways has talked about or noticed this, but this is the first time that I can remember that the real "stars" of any draft have been lineman. Usually all the talk is dominated by the "skill positions" (more on that term later). Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ronnie Brown, Braylon Edwards, Eli Manning, Larry Fitzgerald, the list goes on.

But this year, look at most people's mock drafts. This draft is dominated by the most dominating forces on the field.

The Lineman.

Now, going by projections, the actual number of picks aren't that much different. McShay has 24 lineman going in the first two rounds in his mock draft. Here are the counts of number of lineman chosen in the first 2 rounds for the past 5 years:

2008 (projected): 24

2007. 23
      
2006. 17
      
2005. 18
      
2004. 20
      
2003. 21

But, for the first time, the lineman ARE getting more air time. I, personally, love this, because to me, the game of football is played in the trenches, every good team begins and ends with how well their lineman can control the line of scrimmage.

Look at Edgerrin James. Pro Bowl running back with the Colts behind one of the best lines in the league. Moves to the Cardinals behind one of the worst? Statistically average. I also believe that you could stick a monkey behind the Patriot's offensive line, and it could throw to their receivers enough to make them a solid playoff team .

Or look at the Giants, what is the strength of their team? Eli has become a good leader, but he's no elite QB. Their offense doesn't really have any superstar players at all. Now, given, they did have a lot of players on offense that stepped it up quite a bit when the respect card was played, but they still weren't the stars of that team.

No, it was the defensive line. Their O-line is pretty solid as well.

The fact is, all good teams MUST have solid play along both the offensive and defensive lines. With a good enough line, Samkon Gado could look like LaDainian Tomlinson (Well, ok, in that example it better be an entire line of Hall of Famers, but still). And as we saw in the Super Bowl, with a good enough pass rush, you can even make a future Hall of Fame QB look like Jay Fiedler.

Which is why I'm glad that the emphasis on the draft is finally on some of the guys that deserve it. For years lineman have gone through the league, many have even piled up Pro Bowl visits, with most people hardly even knowing who they were. 10 years ago, how many people could honestly say they knew who Will Shields was, even though he had been to 4 Pro Bowls by 1998?

Now, they're nearly the headliners. Alan Faneca was headlined as one of the biggest movers in free agency, the two Longs are dominating talks at the top of the draft, and when it's not focused on them, it's on Gholston or Dorsey.

Finally... FINALLY, we get more talk then just how strong QB1's arm is vs. QB2, or how much higher WR1 can jump then WR2.

And one last thing (since I left you dangling earlier) - I hate the term "skill positions." It implies that the only positions that use "skill" are QB, RB, WR, and TE, when, quite frankly, if you aren't skilled, you aren't playing in the NFL at any position.

This is a discussion that me and coworker were having earlier today. How soon do you think the Dolphins will be in the playoffs?

Now, I've been a Dolphin fan for my entire life, but I'm also a realist/pessimist. I honestly do not think that the Dolphins will even sniff the playoffs before the 2014 season. Even with Parcells, even if Sparano works out to be the next great coach, and even if Jon Beck becomes an elite QB, I just can't see it happening.

My coworker is a Jaguars fan, but apparently has more faith in Parcells, because he not only thinks that we'll be in the playoffs for the 2010 season, but thinks that we'll be a Super Bowl contender in 2011.

Three seasons to turn a 1-15 team into a playoff contender? And only four to go to the Super Bowl? I think he's crazy. Especially when you consider how tough the AFC is right now.

What do you think?

Poll

What year will the 'Fins be back in the playoffs? (Year defined as the year the season starts)

0%

2016

0 votes

1%

2012

1 votes

1%

2017 or later

1 votes

6%

2008

5 votes

1%

2013

1 votes

49%

2009

41 votes

1%

2014

1 votes

25%

2010

21 votes

0%

2015

0 votes

14%

2011

12 votes

83 votes | Poll has closed

At this point, I'm convinced that the first pick is going to be either Chris Long or Jake Long. I was sold on Jake Long before after watching his performances against Vernon Gholston and Derrick Harvery, but Matty's posts about Chris Long have me convinced that I'd like him as well.

Isn't it too bad that we can't have both?

For starters, Jake Long is ridiculous. His measurables are very strong, he's mean, and above all that, he's smart. Very sound in his technique, a hard worker, and a true team leader.

But, then again, Chris Long is very good too. His measurables are very strong, he's mean, and above all that, he's smart. Very sound in his technique, a hard worker, and a true team leader.

Err... wait a sec...

Look, both of these players are, in my opinion, can't-miss prospects for the NFL. In fact, I'm convinced that both of them will be Pro Bowlers, most likely even within their first 3 years in the league.

So then, it becomes a question of who we need more. Which I think HAS to be Jake Long.

Yes, this draft is very deep in talent at tackle, but why not start it off with the best talent of the group? We need to fill at least 3 positions on the O-line anyways.

Having Chris Long would help the defense, surely. But, having a strong O-line would give Beck a chance to show how good he really is, AND would give Ronnie and LoBo a little more room to run with. I honestly think that we're 2 good lineman and a wide receiver away from having a decent offense.

Here is how I'd like to see our draft go:
Round-Pick # (Overall pick #)

1-1 (1) Jake Long - OT - Michigan
2-1 (32) Branden Flowers - CB - Virginia Tech
2-26 (57) Chilo Rachal - G - USC
3-1 (64) Andre Caldwell - WR - Florida
4-1 (96) Chad Henne - QB - Michigan
6-29 (186) Craig Steltz - S - LSU
7-1 (190) Michael Grant - CB - Arkansas

Long is an obvious pick, and Rachal would help anchor the offensive line. Flowers is a very good CB, and Grant is good enough to play at least as a nickel back. I think Steltz is very underrated and is going to be a late round steal, and Chad Henne might be worth taking a chance on.

Then there's Andre Caldwell, who I think is probably the most underrated player in the draft. He ran the 3rd fastest 40 with a 4.37, the 3rd best 3 cone drill, and the 2nd best 20 yd shuttle, along with showing some of the best hands during the positional drills. In his college career he didn't put up stellar numbers, but that's because Florida has been loaded with receiving talent for awhile now and has been spreading the ball around (Caldwell still is the Gators all-time leading receiver in catches). When Caldwell did catch the ball though, he made the most of it, averaging 13.1 yards per catch, and proving to always be a clutch player. He did, after all, score the winning touchdown at the Senior Bowl.