SB Nation User Blog: ratenxs

Dolphins have #1 toughest Strength of Schedule

ratenxs — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 17:32:19 -0000

According to NFL.com

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d80fbaa5d&template=without-video-with-comments&confirm=true

The actual schedules haven't been released yet, but the NFL is giving us this teaser.

I think someone had posted before that the AFC East was playing the NFC East, right? We have a pretty tough season ahead of us fellas.

I have to say though, I hate seeing the Steelers and Cardinals at #29 and #27, after they played eachother in the Super Bowl.

The End of an Era.

ratenxs — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 06:49:57 -0000

In case anyone has been living under a rock during this free agency, you'll notice that some high-profile players have been released by the their teams. Not necessarily "high profile" as in the best players in the game, but rather as in players that have defined the face of their franchises for a long time.

The blockbuster this week is obviously Marvin Harrison. Peyton and Marvin have been the leaders of the Colts franchise for a very long time, and seeing him in another uniform next year is going to be something like seeing Favre in a Jets' uniform.

But even past that, you also have the Bucs releasing Derrick Brooks and Joey Galloway, which I think may actually be a larger impact then Marvin. Then there's New Orleans releasing Duece McAllister or Jacksonville releasing Fred Taylor. And this isn't even mentioning the possibility that Ray Lewis may part ways with the Ravens. Or looking back to last year when our very own Dolphins released Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas.

5 Years ago, the thought of any of these players parting with their teams would've been insanity. All of them were fan favorites and were considered players who would finish their careers with their current teams. This year, however, it seems that we are just hit with shock after shock of players that are being released by their teams.

I look back and I think about all of these players, and I remember how I felt when the 'Fins released Zach Thomas. My heart sank pretty deep down into my chest when I heard Miami was releasing him, and it sank even lower when I heard he was signing with the Cowboys. Zach has always been and always will be one of my favorite football players of all time. He was humble, a great leader, and an absolute beast on the field. He did all of the little things right, and above all was a great person. He is exactly the kind of player I would want on my football team.

And this season, all of those players I named are ones you'd want on your team. Did anyone hear McAllister crying foul when Reggie Bush took his carries? Did Joey Galloway ever proclaim "I Love Me Some Me"? Did Derrick Brooks ever draw any headlines besides simply being an amazing linebacker? Did Fred Taylor ever do anything but bust his ass for the team that he loved and the fans that adored him?

Every one of these players are men who deserve a high level of respect from anyone in the league. Among the 8 players I named, I feel like at least 4 of them should be Hall of Famers (Harrison, Brooks, Thomas, and F. Taylor), so they will get their recognition, but all of the others still deserve a collective round of applause for doing everything the right way through most of their careers.

These guys may not be done, and some of them may still have something to prove, but let's face it, once a long-time franchise player leaves his team, it's never really the same again.

This season's releases have just been a stark reminder of how cruel and ever-changing the game of football can be.

Or maybe just a reminder that I'm getting older.

Nice link to salary cap breakdown

ratenxs — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 10:57:37 -0000

Just thought I'd share this with everyone.

http://www.phinzmania.com/forums/view.php?pg=salarycap

I've got a lovely bunch of words to write, deedle-ee-dee-dee, there they are a counting to 75, dum dum dum, big ones small ones some as big as your head, give them a twist, a flick of the wrist, that's what the phins fan said. I've got a lovely bunch of words written.

Statistics and Their Relevance to Football

ratenxs — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 03:56:53 -0000

This is going to be a long one.

Sometime around 2005, I was surfing Amazon.com for some football books, and came across something interesting. It was called the "2005 Football Prospectus" written by a group of guys calling themselves the Football Outsiders. I bought the book, read, and thoroughly enjoyed it. They had put together a group of people to study film and record statistics far beyond what the NFL normally records, and came out with two interesting statistical numbers, DVOA and DYAR.

Now, I'm not going to get into what these are, as you can go to their website, www.footballoutsiders.com and read to your hearts content. What I do want to get into, is the effect of these statistics on football, and what statistics really mean to football.

When I saw these statistics, and read this book, I thought it was incredibly profound. It was something new, fresh, and interesting in a world weighed down by tired sports cliches and former-player analysts who still cannot seem to grasp anything about the game beyond the position they played. I thought it was going to change the way we looked at football.

And it did.

Slowly, as FO becomes more popular and more people discover them, you're starting to see people who use these statistics because they are so new and fresh as a way to "fight the man" of the mainstream, and try to break out their own originality. All of a sudden, some of these people think that DVOA and DYAR are the greatest things since sliced bread, and is the be-all-end-all of what defines a good player.

Now, I want to take a second here and make it very clear that GatorPhan and PhinPhan are NOT these kinds of people. Their posts may use statistics heavily, but they are well informed and think beyond the numbers. I do really enjoy reading their posts.

However, it is still a growing fad, and there are plenty of people who are trying to ride in on the coattails of it like they are some kind of football expert because they know how to run a calculator.

So let me get one thing straight with everyone right now. Statistics are not the answer. People have fought and tried for YEARS to make statistics make sense of sports, and to some extent it actually works, especially in baseball. However, in baseball on any given play, there is absolutely no more then 10 players that can POSSIBLY have an effect on the play, and in reality it is very rarely more then 4 (pitcher, batter, fielder, baseman). The pitcher throws the ball either strike or ball, the batter either hits or misses, and if he hits it then someone catches it or doesn't, then makes a throw or misses it. This obviously isn't the full list, but the point is that there is at the very least a finite amount. Because there is such a small number of variables in any given play, statistics works.

That is because statistics is very good with a small number of variables. Coin flips, number of colored M&Ms in a bag, things like that, statistics are very good at. However, the more variables you add into any certain condition, the less accurate statistics are. Anyone who knows anything about statistics will at least agree with this basic fact.

Now consider the average football play. There are 22 players on the field at any time, and any ONE of these players can change the entire dynamic of the play. Each lineman can hold their block or not, and even that can be a grey area depending on if they give the QB 3 or 4 seconds. The QB has options to throw to, each of those options can make or miss the catch, then if they make the catch, they can get more yards. The defensive players either make the right read or they don't, or the safety can fake a move to the inside or he can't. Essentially, you get the point here, there is an INFINITE amount of possible variables on any given football play. There is absolutely no possible way to account for all of those variables.

We also have to look at how each player is being used, the offensive or defensive schemes. For instance, is Larry Fitzgerald necessarily a better WR then Hines Ward? Would Hines be as useful to the Cardinals as Larry is? Would Larry be as useful to the Steelers as Hines is? The answer in both situations is a resounding NO. Hines is a wonderful all-around receiver, in that he makes the high-pressure catches, is a great blocker, and will fight his ass off for every yard. Larry is a great WR as well, don't get me wrong, and there are a lot of things that he does better then Hines does, however, he's not as well rounded. Besides, the point is not whether one is better then the other, rather the point is who does better in the situation they are expected to perform in. By that measure, both receivers are spectacular.

There are a TON of things that happen on any particular play in football that are not recorded at all, yet can have a monstrous effect on the way the play develops. For instance, you guys should all remember Jake Scott, who is in my opinion one of the best safeties to ever play the game, and is certainly one of, if not the, best Dolphins safety ever. He was very good at finding opposing QBs secrets and determining how they read the play. For instance, he figured out that Joe Namath would always watch the Free Safety’s break to read the coverage, and he would take a false first step to fool him. This would throw off Namath’s read, and would lead to bad throws, interceptions, deflections, or tackles that may be credited to other players, but it was Scott’s first step that changed the whole dynamic of the play. There is no statistic to measure that first step.

There is simply too many variables for statistics to really mean anything to the game of football beyond sparking some interesting debate.

Think about it for a second. Ever wonder why there seems to be such a clear divide between people in the NFL, and people out of it? Why coaches always roll their eyes at mentions of statistics? Why GMs worry more about "measurables" and "potential" then college statistics?

Think about every interview with a non-TO or non-Ocho Cinco player you've ever heard when they are asked about statistics and records. 95% of the time you'll hear something like "While it's an honor to be mentioned with (insert the guy who held the record before), i'm not really that worried about, i'm just here to help the team win."

This is because football players and coaches know the reality of the game, and the reality is that there's only two statistics that matter.

Wins and Losses.

Ohio State...

ratenxs — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 03:22:06 -0000

I know this is an NFL forum, but I think there's enough future NFL players in this game to qualify.

Ohio State and the rest of the Big 10 need to be relegated to Division III. I mean my god, they looked like a high school team against USC tonight. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if some Florida high school teams could actually beat OSU this year the way they played in that game. (Put Miami Northwestern or St. Thomas Aquinas vs. Ohio State, hehehe)

I mean, what else do you expect from the Ohio State Chokeyes, but damn.

At least this means we won't have to watch another SEC team crush OSU in the National Championship game again. But it does mean we have to endure listening to how great USC is while they trounce the rest of the Pac 9+1.

Offseason boring you? Need that football fix?

ratenxs — Thu, 08 May 2008 17:01:51 -0000

Check out this little game .

I'm usually not one for mmorpgs, especially ones that don't active involve any action, but this is one of those interesting little things that take about 5-7 minutes a day and can be quite entertaining.

You create your own players and set their skills and train them, then sign on with teams that compete against eachother.

It's all free, so there's no worries there. The only thing that'll cost you is if you want to buy and build your own team, but all of the teams for this season are already bought anyways.

I've already created 2 players, an OT named Wayne Moore and a DE named Bill Stanfill (those names sound familiar to anyone? :P) And I'm starting to enjoy it.

Anyways, check it out. It's a nice little time waster while most of us wait for our real time waster - fantasy football - to get started again.

TMQ Highlights another Jets draft blunder

ratenxs — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 13:38:04 -0000

I love TMQ. If you've never read it, it's here: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/080429&sportCat=nfl&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab4pos1

Gregg Easterbrook is probably one of the best writers ESPN has.

Anyways, he makes this comment about the Jets:

Jersey/B Jets: Net of the Jets' Dewayne Robertson deals: Jersey/B traded two first-round draft choices to obtain Robertson, and just unloaded him for a conditional late-round choice in 2009. The picks the Jets gave up were the 13th and 22nd selections in 2003. Had the Jets simply stayed at 13th and 22nd that year, and taking into account their needs then, they could have selected Ty Warren or Troy Polamalu 13th and Dallas Clark 22nd. Imagine how much better the Jets would be today.

Sometimes, making fun of the Jets is just too easy.....

Just a heads up.

ratenxs — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 23:51:15 -0000

If anyone here has enjoyed my ramblings in The Phinsider diaries, I've joined The South Florida Fan as the main Dolphins contributer, so you can head over there to see my blogs. (http://thesouthfloridafan.blogspot.com)

There's a lot of great content there for other Florida teams as well, and ASponge has some big plans, so keep an eye on the place.

Of course I'll still be contributing in the comments for ThePhinsider because I love this place, but any kind of main blog written by me will be posted over there now.

Thanks,

Rate

Starting NFL QB Draft Position Evaluation

ratenxs — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 06:11:15 -0000

Prompted by the post about Josh Johnson, I went in search of the round which each starting QB currently in the NFL was drafted. I looked at the QBs for every team in the league last season, and listed every QB that either started a game last season, or has been an NFL starter before (example: B.Johnson). I'm sure I missed a few, but I have a total of 57 QBs listed here, which should definitely be considered a representative sample.

The full list is at the bottom, but here's some roundup stats.

First off, # of QBs by round:

1st---21 2nd---6
3rd---9 4th---3
5th---2 6th---4
8th---1 9th---1
UD---10

Now, your initial reaction would be that, wow, 1st round has the highest number by far, but, keep in mind that the 1st round only makes up 36.8% of all of the QBs. In fact, 2nd day picks (which, note, is now from the 3rd round till the end), make up 35%, and Undrafteds are another 17.5%.

Next, look at the number of active super bowl winning QBs by round.

QB------Rings---Round
Brady-----3-------6
Roeth-----1-------1
P. Man----1-------1
B. John---1-------9
E. Man----1-------1
Favre-----1-------2
Warner----1-------UD

With the exception of Brady, this chart tends to favor the first round guys. But wait. Lets look at all of the Super Bowls since 1970, and see where the winner of each was drafted. Again, the full list is available later, for now, here's a recap chart.

Round---# of SB
1st--------19
2nd--------2
3rd--------5
4th--------1
6th--------5
9th--------2
10th-------2
UD---------2

Again, similar to before. The 1st round only claims 50% of the Super Bowls since 1970. In that chart, note that I counted number of super bowls, so multiple-time winners such as Brady or Montana were counted more then once. This is the chart if you take out multiple winners:

Round---# of SB
1st-------10
2nd-------2
3rd-------2
4th-------1
6th-------3
9th-------2
10th------1
UD--------2

Note that after taking out multiple winners, the first round only has 43% of the QBs.

There's no point here to prove or anything, I just got curious and couldn't find the information readily available anywhere, so decided to do it myself. I'm sure I missed some names, and some numbers may be slightly off since I'm doing this at 1am, so feel free to give me any corrections that you know of.

As for the list, I tried to group QBs with who they were with last season, but the list I was working with included all of the transactions that have already happened, so there's probably a few QBs with the wrong teams, too, but that's not really that important for what I was doing here, anyways.

Finally, I would like to point everyone to this great article by Ted Kluck before last year's draft that studied the risk of drafting each position. Note that QB has the highest bust percentage at 53: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/quarterbacks/070425

I hope everyone finds this interesting. If you can think of any other ways to extrapolate information from this data, please do so, or at least suggest different things to look at. I kind of enjoy researching this kind of stuff, so I may go even further if there's enough interest. Anyways, without further ado, here's the lists. QBs sorted by Team/Division, Super Bowls are by years.

(I'm not sure how this extended copy thing works, you might have to click read more or something like that.)

Starting NFL QBs:

MIA Lemon UD
MIA Beck 2nd
MIA Green 8th
MIA McCown 3rd
N_E Brady 6th
NYJ Clemens 2nd
NYJ Pennington 1st
BUF Edwards 3rd
BUF Losman 1st

BAL Boller 1st
BAL McNair 1st
CIN Palmer 1st
CLE D.Anderson 6th
PIT Roethlisberger 1st

HOU Schaub 3rd
HOU Rosenfels 4th
IND P.Manning 1st
JAX Garrard 4th
JAX Gray UD
TEN Young 1st

DEN Cutler 1st
K_C Croyle 3rd
K_C Huard UD
OAK Russel 1st
OAK Culpepper 1st
S_D Rivers 1st

DAL Romo UD
DAL B.Johnson 9th
NYG E.Manning 1st
PHI McNabb 1st
PHI Feely 5th
WAS Collins 2nd
WAS Campbell 1st

CHI Orton 4th
CHI Grossman 1st
DET Kitna UD
G_B Favre 2nd
G_B Rodgers 1st
MIN Jackson 2nd

ATL Redman 3rd
ATL Vick 1st
ATL Leftwich 3rd
CAR Moore UD
CAR Delhomme UD
CAR Carr 1st
N_O Brees 2nd
N_O Brunell 5th
T_B Garcia UD
T_B Griese 3rd
T_B Simms 3rd

ARI Warner UD
ARI Leinart 1st
StL Bulger 6th
S_F Hill UD
S_F Smith 1st
SEA Hasselbeck 6th
SEA Frye 3rd

Super Bowl Winning QBs since 1970:

1971    Unitas    9th
1972    Staubach    10th
1973    Griese    1st
1974    Griese    1st
1975    Bradshaw    1st
1976    Bradshaw    1st
1977    Stabler    2nd
1978    Staubach    10th
1979    Bradshaw    1st
1980    Bradshaw    1st
1981    Plunkett    1st
1982    Montana    3rd
1983    Theismann    4th
1984    Plunkett    1st
1985    Montana    3rd
1986    McMahon    1st
1987    Simms    1st
1988    Williams    1st
1989    Montana    3rd
1990    Montana    3rd
1991    Hostetler    3rd
1992    Rypien    6th
1993    Aikman    1st
1994    Aikman    1st
1995    Young    Supp.
1996    Aikman    1st
1997    Favre    2nd
1998    Elway    1st
1999    Elway    1st
2000    Warner    UD
2001    Dilfer    6th
2002    Brady    6th
2003    B. John    9th
2004    Brady    6th
2005    Brady    6th
2006    Roeth    1st
2007    P. Man    1st
2008    E. Man    1st

Lineman

ratenxs — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 02:49:54 -0000

I'm not sure how much anyways has talked about or noticed this, but this is the first time that I can remember that the real "stars" of any draft have been lineman. Usually all the talk is dominated by the "skill positions" (more on that term later). Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ronnie Brown, Braylon Edwards, Eli Manning, Larry Fitzgerald, the list goes on.

But this year, look at most people's mock drafts. This draft is dominated by the most dominating forces on the field.

The Lineman.

Now, going by projections, the actual number of picks aren't that much different. McShay has 24 lineman going in the first two rounds in his mock draft. Here are the counts of number of lineman chosen in the first 2 rounds for the past 5 years:

2008 (projected): 24

But, for the first time, the lineman ARE getting more air time. I, personally, love this, because to me, the game of football is played in the trenches, every good team begins and ends with how well their lineman can control the line of scrimmage.

Look at Edgerrin James. Pro Bowl running back with the Colts behind one of the best lines in the league. Moves to the Cardinals behind one of the worst? Statistically average. I also believe that you could stick a monkey behind the Patriot's offensive line, and it could throw to their receivers enough to make them a solid playoff team .

Or look at the Giants, what is the strength of their team? Eli has become a good leader, but he's no elite QB. Their offense doesn't really have any superstar players at all. Now, given, they did have a lot of players on offense that stepped it up quite a bit when the respect card was played, but they still weren't the stars of that team.

No, it was the defensive line. Their O-line is pretty solid as well.

The fact is, all good teams MUST have solid play along both the offensive and defensive lines. With a good enough line, Samkon Gado could look like LaDainian Tomlinson (Well, ok, in that example it better be an entire line of Hall of Famers, but still). And as we saw in the Super Bowl, with a good enough pass rush, you can even make a future Hall of Fame QB look like Jay Fiedler.

Which is why I'm glad that the emphasis on the draft is finally on some of the guys that deserve it. For years lineman have gone through the league, many have even piled up Pro Bowl visits, with most people hardly even knowing who they were. 10 years ago, how many people could honestly say they knew who Will Shields was, even though he had been to 4 Pro Bowls by 1998?

Now, they're nearly the headliners. Alan Faneca was headlined as one of the biggest movers in free agency, the two Longs are dominating talks at the top of the draft, and when it's not focused on them, it's on Gholston or Dorsey.

Finally... FINALLY, we get more talk then just how strong QB1's arm is vs. QB2, or how much higher WR1 can jump then WR2.

And one last thing (since I left you dangling earlier) - I hate the term "skill positions." It implies that the only positions that use "skill" are QB, RB, WR, and TE, when, quite frankly, if you aren't skilled, you aren't playing in the NFL at any position.