
raygu
May 09, 2008 Dec 23, 2009 732 2229
Big time Dodgers fan living in NJ.
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MLB Trade Rumors: Breaking Down the Javier Vazquez Trade
I am sure you have read that the Yankees response to the Red Sox signing of John Lackey was to deal a 4th outfielder type in Melky Cabrera in a package to the Braves for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan. Vazquez was coming off perhaps his bext season in the majors by going 15-10-2.87-1.03 with a K/9 of 9.77 and a K/B of 5.48 in 2009. He also had the lowest xFIP-2.82-of all major league starters in 2009.
Vazquez will be the Yankees 3rd or 4th starter in a rotation that includes CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Andy Pettite, but based on his 2009 season stats, he would be their #1, but we know that won't happen. He pitched with the Yankees back in 2004 with poor results. In 2004, he went 14-10 with a 4.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, but only struck out 6.82 batters per 9 innings and had a K/BB ratio of 2.50. Since 2004, his K/9 has not been lower than 8.01. and his K/BB ratio has not been lower than 3.28.
Vazquez had a problem with the longball in 2004 as he gave up 1.50 HR/9 while giving up 33 homers. He gave up 35 homers in 2005 as well, but since then has controlled the longball as he has given up 23, 29, 25 and 20 homers since 2005. That may change pitching in Yankee stadium in 2010.
Like I said the Braves got Melky Cabrera, along with pitching prospects Arodys Vizcaino and Mike Dunn. Cabrera should start in right field for the Braves, with Nate McLouth in center field and Matt Diaz in left field. But, once right field prospect Jason Heyward is ready, Melky could platoon with Diaz in left field. Melky went 13-68-.274-.336-.419 hitting in Yankee Stadium in 2009. Not the definition of the big bat the Braves were talking about getting in return for one of their starting pitchers.
Vizcaino is years away from making the big leagues, but was the Yankees number 2 prospect behind Jesus Montero. Dunn could see time as the Braves set-up guy behind Billy Wagner or could close for them in 2011, so he is one to watch in 2010.
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MLB Trade Rumors: Johnny Damon Back to the Yankees?
As a result of yesterday's trade with the Braves, the Yankees are down one outfielder after dealing Melky Cabrera, Arodys Vizcaino and Mike Dunn to the Braves for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan. Could the Yankees now go out and sign Johnny Damon to return to play left field? I think there is a good possibility, and it would be under their terms and not Scott Boras's.
Damon was after a 4 year deal and $13 million per year, but who is going to pay that kind of money, and for that long, to a 36 year old outfielder. Not even the Yankees. My how times have changed.
Damon is coming off one of his best slugging seasons of his career going 24-82-12-.282-.365-.489-.854. His OPS as his highest since 2004, and his 24 bombs matched a career high set in 2006 in his first year as a Yankee. Looking inside the numbers, we see that Damon increased his BB% from 10.3% in 2008 to 11.4% in 2009, but his K% also increased from 14.8% to 17.8%, and his ISO% of .207 was the highest of his career.
Damon's HR output was a result of a huge increase in his FB% from 34.2% in 2008 to 43.2% in 2009, and his HR/FB% also increased from 10.5% to 12.6%. Damon may be able to maintain his HR output but only if he continues playing in Yankee Stadium where his flyballs to right field will turn into HRs rather that FB outs in most other ballparks.
The Yankees deal with the Braves is the perfect set up for Damon's return, and I can see GM Brian Cashman pouncing on this opportunity before the new year.
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Chat with Mike Newman at Scouting the Sally
[Comment From raygu@faketeams.com : ]
Which player have you seen this year who deserves more hype? Tuesday December 22, 2009 10:0310:04 Mike Newman: Kyle Allen as a pitcher, Travis D'Arnaud as a position player.
www.scoutingthesally.com
1 day ago
raygu
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Chat with Mike Newman at Scouting the Sally
[Comment From Jason Collette Jason Collette: ]
Just got this - hope I'm not too late. I saw a note today on a BA Chat where they feel Matt Moore has a chance to be the top prospect in baseball this time next year. Agree or disagree? Tuesday December 22, 2009 9:59 Jason Collette
10:00 Mike Newman: I would never doubt a lefty with his ability, but the command just isn't there right now. I still think Strasberg will be considered a prospect at this time next season so I would bet against it.
Wow!!! I haven't heard that from any of the prospect experts!!
www.scoutingthesally.com
1 day ago
raygu
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MLB Trade Rumors: Jason Bay to the Mets??
Quick post. We all know that the Mets appear to be the only team who has made an offer to Jason Bay that has not been rejected.....yet. If the Mets have made the best offer for Bay, then why won't he accept it? He is rumored to want a 5th year added to the deal. I can't blame him. His power numbers will drop for sure hitting in the huge pitchers paradise called Citifield.
What are the chances Bay signs with the Mets?
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MLB Trade Rumors: Carlos Zambrano to the Yankees??
Last night ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted that the Yankees were closing in on a trade for a starting pitcher:
Heard this: Yankees working very hard tonight on deal for starting pitcher. Remember that they came close to deal for Aaron Harang in summer
The Harang rumor was shot down by Mark Feinsand from the New York Daily News:
Yankees are apparently close to a deal for a starting pitcher, says a source. Still working on who, but I'm told it's not a salary dump deal
If its not a salary dump, that could rule out the Reds Aaron Harang and the Braves Derek Lowe. How about the Cubs Carlos Zambrano? While driving into work yesterday, Holden Cushner and Jom Bowden were talking about the Yankees interest in Zambrano and mentioned that the Cubs had interest in Brett Gardner to play CF (another good speed, good D, no power outfielder).
The Cubs MLB.com beat reporter Carrie Muskat posted the following on her blog yesterday:
According to a story in the New York Post, GM Brian Cashman asked Jim Hendry about possibly acquiring Carlos Zambrano but the Yankees did not like the asking price. Zambrano, who has a full no-trade clause, is owed $53.75 million over the next three years. Another report says the Yankees did not even inquire about Zambrano.
What is certain is that Hendry never asked Zambrano's agent, Barry Praver, about whether the pitcher would waive the no-trade clause to go to New York. Praver said Monday that Zambrano is not interested in doing so.
I am sure Jim Hendry asked for the moon to try to make up for his signing of Milton Bradley last offseason. We all know how that turned out. Hendry recently dealt Bradley to the Mariners and took on Carlos Silva's bad contract in return. Could Hendry revisit the Yankees trde proposal for Big Z now that he had to take on Silva's contract and is still looking for a centerfielder?
I think it is very possible. I think Big Z reconsiders and waives his no-trade clause to get traded to the Yankees. He would have a great chance at finally winning a World Series also. Plus, the Yankees have to answer the Red Sox signing of John Lackey last week with a big name. Big Z is a big name.
Update (10:00 am) tweet from Joel Sherman:
so the trade is vazquez and boone logan to #Yankees for melky cabrera, mike dunn and arodys vizcaino, that is now confirmed by Post
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Fantasy Baseball: Same As It Ever Was
On a daily basis, I look forward to reading Buster Olney's blog to see if I can sift some nuggets of information that can help me in my fantasy leagues. Yesterday morning, he posted the following:
Coco Crisp is nearing a deal with the Oakland Athletics, according to late word from MLB Trade Rumors' Tim Dierkes. Presumably Crisp will slot into Oakland's center field and be flanked by Ryan Sweeney and Rajai Davis to make up a strong defensive outfield. This is yet another sign that teams that are most shaped by statistical analysis have determined that defense is the undervalued asset in the current marketplace.
He goes on to talk about the Red Sox recent signing of Mike Cameron to play left field, and the Mariners decision to re-sign shortstop Jack Wilson. We have also seen the White Sox trade for Juan Pierre. Other than Wilson, the 3 guys mentioned have one thing in common for fantasy owners. They can steal bases. They can run fast and they can play good defense.
These trades and signings mark a change in roster construction philosophy that could expand over the next few years. As Olney stated, defense is the undervalued asset in the marketplace. Teams are putting more emphasis on pitching and defense after a decade or so emphasizing the long ball in the steroid era.
It is time for fantasy owners to take notice as we may see a switch to small ball where pitching, defense and speed are emphasized more. Will we see more Coco Crisp/Juan Pierre types winning position battles because he can steal a base and play good defense? This could lead to an increase in stolen bases and a continued drop in home runs and runs scored in 2010 and beyond.
Should the roster construction philosophy of major league teams change to emphasize speed and defense, fantasy owners will have to factor that into their draft day strategy as speed guys will become more abundant and power guys become that much more expensive.
On a separate note, could this change in philospophy lead to the elimination of the designated hitter in the American League?
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Fantasy Baseball: UBA Keeper League Trades
I have mentioned in several of my posts recently that I have traded for some minor league prospects in my "Big" NL-only keeper league called the UBA league. I joined this league 3 years ago taking over a team that had finished in 11th place the previous year. I immediately started trading my best keepers in several 2-1 deals to improve my roster.
My first year in the UBA league was strange because, I decided in mid-late May to bail on the season and started trading my most productive players for cheap keepers and minor league prospects. But, as the season went along, I slowly crept up in the league standings to the point that I decided to change course and go for it. As it turned out, I finished 3rd that year and in the money.
In fact, I have finished in 3rd place in each of my 3 years in the UBA league, but last year's finish hurt the most. I traded some of my better minor league prospects (Andrew McCutchen and Jason Heyward to name a few) and Matt Kemp during the season to only finish in 3rd. Not what I expected when I made the deals obviously.
So this offseason, I have again decided to gut my team of my best keepers to rebuild, as I did in my first year in the league. Here is a summary of the deals I have made this offseason:
more after the jump:
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MLB Trade Rumors: Dissecting the Red's Decision to Restructure Scott Rolen's Contract
A few days ago, there was a rumor that the Dodgers were talking to the Reds about trading for starting pitcher Aaron Harang. Then on Friday, that rumor was put to rest as Dodgers GM Ned Colletti was quoted as saying the talk between the two teams is all but dead.
Then yesterday, we hear that the Reds have restructured the contract of third baseman Scott Rolen to give them more "payroll flexibility". Instead of receiving $11 million in 2010, Rolen will receive $6 million in 2010, $5 million in 2011 and $6.5 million in 2012. So, the Red extended Rolen's contract through 2012 to give them payroll flexibility. But, this extension also blocks two of their 3b prospects Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco. Both will compete for the opening in left field in spring training, and one of them will be the first to be called up when Rolen goes on the DL. My money is on Frazier.
But getting back to the rumored Harang to the Dodgers deal. The Reds were rumored to want one or two guys off the Dodgers major league roster in return for Harang. My guess is they have interest in one of Scott Elbert and James McDonald along with SS Chin-Lung Hu.
Could the restructuring of Rolen's contract allow the Reds to take on more of Harang's salary in a possible deal to the Dodgers?
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Down on the Farm: MLB Fantasy Prospects Breaks Down the Roy Halladay Deal
contributed by Stephen Sheridan at MLB Fantasy Prospects
All of the dust has settled on what ESPN's Jayson Stark explains, "...isn't just a trade. It's a foray into the history books." MLBFP closely studied this monster trade to figure out how the pieces fit together. Of course, we concentrated on the prospects, only. If you don't already know that Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are top ten starters in any format, maybe you might need a new hobby.
We begin by taking a look at the Blue Jays' haul for Roy Halladay, which includes Kyle Drabek, Brett Wallace (obtained by flipping Michael Taylor to the A's. Stay tuned for our interview with him, later this weekend), and Travis D'Arnaud.
Loyal MLBFP readers already know that Drabek holds a spot on our list of Top 25 Fantasy Prospects for 2010 & Beyond, coming in at #17. Once you've read our scouting report on Kyle, you'll see that we that this kid might someday follow in his daddy's footsteps and win a Cy Young Award. On December 17, John Manual and J.J. Cooper discussed the big trade on the Baseball America Podcast. They now list Kyle Drabek as Toronto's number one prospect. Who's number two? Brett Wallace, of course.
One of the only knocks on Wallace has been his defense at third base. That may no longer be an issue. Recently, Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopoulos chatted with fans on MLB.com about the Halladay trade and prospects for the Blue Jays in the future. During the chat, Anthropoulos said the following:
We think Wallace is capable of playing third. But, we see him being an above average defensive first baseman. Our hope is to have a strong as a defensive club as we can and putting players in a position where they have a chance to impact the club in the best way defensively.
Sure sounds as if Brett's days manning the hot corner are over. In my opinion, this is a positive move because now he can concentrate on what he does best - crushing the baseball! Back in July, he was traded to the A's in the deal that sent Matt Holliday to the Cardinals. Regardless of where he played in 2009, albeit in the Texas League (AA) or the Pacific Coast League (AAA) - for two different organizations, no less - Wallace proved he's ready for the bigs. For the year, he hit .293 with 20 homers and a .822 OPS. Sure, with the move to first base, we'll want to see him get that .455 slugging percentage a bit higher. Even so, as Bill Root pointed out after Brett's trade to Oakland, "The Arizona State alum has hit at every level in the minors." If that's not enough of a ringing endorsement, Root later proclaims, "he has the skills to win a batting title if he keeps progressing." Upon arriving to the A's organization, Wallace had his best stretch of the season, batting .302 with 9 homers in 182 at-bats.
So when might we see these two top-flight prospects playing in the majors? According to Anthropoulos, (from the aforementioned chat session):
I'd say both Drabek and Wallace are very close. But we don't want to put expectations with respect to a time line on them arriving in Toronto. Since Wallace got to Triple-A last year, you could argue that he is the closest but with Drabek having good success in Double-A last year, he could certainly come fast as well just like Jesse Litsch did.
Barring injuries, MLBFP is willing to bet the house that these guys will be regulars at the Rogers Centre by the end of 2010. So that leaves us with just one player to cover - catching prospect Travis D'Arnaud.
Last season, D'Arnaud played for Single-A Lakewood in the Sally League. When we think Sally, we automatically turn to our friend, Mike Newman and his Scouting the Sally blog. Newman grades Travis really high, as this snippet proves:
At his peak, I would not be surprised to see D'Arnaud surface as a .270-.285 hitter with 18-25 home run power while contributing above average defense and plus game management skills. Among the current catching crop, this would place him in the same company as Geovany Soto, and Miguel Montero who profile as above average regulars, if not occasional all-star caliber players. Select company indeed, but D'Arnaud has the tools and projection to reach those heights. Prospect analysts who regard him as little more than a throw in are seriously undercutting his ability. The Blue Jays gained an excellent prospect.
Those might seem like some lofty expectations, but Newman has been scouting the Sally League for some time now. We at MLBFP highly respect his opinions.
I understand that losing Doc Halladay is a tough pill to sawllow for you Jays fans. But hey, you were going to lose him at the end of the season for nothing! Your new GM came through big in flipping Doc for Drabek and Wallace. Both are blue chippers, just a hair shy of performing in the Major Leagues, potentially at a very high level. Hang in there, Toronto! Anthropoulos might be the real deal.
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