SB Nation User Blog: raygu

for all the Manny being Manny haters....I bring you Joe Sheehan

raygu — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 23:29:16 -0000

he SLAMS Tim McCarver....

October 9, 2008, 02:10 AM ET
Facts About Manny Ramirez

by Joe Sheehan

Fox broadcaster Tim McCarver joined the chorus-well, actually he stepped in front of the chorus, grabbed a mike, waved down the band and called for a spotlight-Wednesday, slamming Manny Ramirez based largely on the same secondhand stories that have passed around for more than two months.

"[S]ome of the things he did were simply despicable, despicable - like not playing, refusing to play."

In July, when Ramirez was supposedly "refusing to play," the Red Sox played 24 games. Ramirez played in 22 of them. This was tied for fourth on the team with J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury. He was sixth on the team in plate appearances (AB+BB) in July. Not quite Lou Gehrig’s numbers, but he helped out a bit more than David Ortiz (six games), and was in the lineup somewhat more often than peers such as Moises Alou (one game). Oh, he didn’t get three days off in the middle of the month-Ramirez played in the All-Star Game.

When he played, Ramirez killed the league. He hit .347/.473/.587 in July. His OBP led the team, and his SLG led all Red Sox with at least 25 AB. The Sox, somewhat famously, went 11-13 in July. Lots of people want you to believe that was because Manny Ramirez is a bad guy. I’ll throw out the wildly implausible idea that the Sox went 11-13 because Ortiz played in six games and because veterans Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek has sub-600 OPSs for the month.

Four days before he was traded, Manny Ramirez just about single-handedly saved the Red Sox from getting swept by the Yankees, with doubles in the first and third innings that helped the Sox get out to a 5-0 lead in a game they had to win to stay ahead of the Yankees in the wild-card race.

If all of the above is "refusing to play," I would sincerely like to see what "trying" looks like. It would be entertaining to see a player post a .600 OBP or .800 SLG.

On second thought, they’d probably just blacklist him.

Back to McCarver:

"Manny’s doing things that even Manny doesn’t do, [like] scoring on a double to right field from first base."

I think this is a reference to Game Three of the NL Division Series, in which Manny Ramirez scored from first on a two-out double by James Loney. Is this play terribly unusual, something that Ramirez would not have done prior to the trade from Boston?

I think one of the beautiful things about the 21st century is that when people say silly things about baseball-or for that matter, politics-we’re going to be able to bring actual information out to counter the silly things. Smart people, talented people, like Bil Burke, will be able to go back through the record and prove or disprove statements like the one above.

In his two months as a Dodger prior to postseason play, Manny Ramirez scored from first base on a double to right field. Once. He had two chances to do so, and he did it once.

With the Red Sox this year, Manny Ramirez also scored from first base on a double to right field. Once. He had two chances to do so, and it did it once.

From this we can conclude that Manny Ramirez is doing things in Los Angeles he never did in Boston. Or something like that.

The samples are tiny, but basically, Ramirez didn’t score from first on doubles to right at any different frequency this year than he had of late. One-for-one last year, two-for-four in 2006, one-for-two in 2005. The idea that he hadn’t is just something Tim McCarver invented to sound smart, to make it seem like he knew something about Manny Ramirez that informed his position. And because the people who reported McCarver’s ramblings are dedicated journalists with laminated cards and everything, they fact-checked the claim and…no, wait…I did that. Bil Burke did that.

Not only does Manny Ramirez score from first on doubles to right more often than Tim McCarver thinks he does, and in no different proportion post-trade than he did pre-trade, but he scores from first on doubles to right more often than the average baseball player. The league gets home around 37% of the time, with some of the failures being very costly outs at the plate. As shown above, Ramirez gets home around half the time, and hasn’t been thrown out at the plate on that play since 1999. If the idea is to pick on Manny Ramirez, this is the wrong place to make a stand.

Of course, Tim McCarver doesn’t care, and that’s why this is important. See, come Thursday night, Tim McCarver is going to look into a camera and tell tens of millions of people what he thinks about Manny Ramirez. He’s probably going to revisit this theme any number of times over the following couple of weeks, especially if the Dodgers reach the World Series. When he does, there isn’t going to be a graphic showing Ramirez’s stats during the timeframe when he was supposedly being such a detriment to his team. There won’t be a cutaway to Joe Sheehan in the studio pointing out that Ramirez outplayed most of his teammates and carried two or three of their carcasses while not getting the three-day paid vacation they got. We won’t hear Joe Buck come over the top of McCarver and point out that Ramirez played nearly every day in July.

It will just be McCarver making fact-free assertions, and America listening. That’s wrong.

It’s time that this stops, and all I can do to make it stop is put facts out there and hope that they get to baseball fans, to television executives, and maybe, just maybe, to a TV booth in St. Petersburg. Facts matter. Data matters. Facts and data don’t have agendas, don’t like or dislike individuals, aren’t invested in a particular storyline or protecting their friends and sources. Facts just sit there on the page and dare you to ignore them. There are links all over this article. Click them and verify the claims I make in this piece. That’s what Baseball Prospectus is about: backing up your opinions with facts.

Manny Ramirez played in 90% of his team’s games in July and hit like a beast, coming up huge in a critical division matchup late in the month to help the Red Sox avoid a sweep and sustain their place in the standings. Those are my…no, those are the facts.

What do you have, Tim?

Fantasy Baseball: Arizona Diamondback SS Stephen Drew

raygu — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 02:33:00 -0000

Stephen Drew was a highly touted prospect at the beginning of the 2007 season with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He was touted as a power hitting SS with a good glove and was handed the everyday SS job coming out of spring training at the age of 24. In 2007, he hit .236-12-60-60. Not bad for his first full year, but more was expected of him, especially with an older brother, the backstabber (sorry) named J.D.

In my NL only snake draft league, he was the 9th SS taken in the 7th round behind the following: Ramirez, Rollins, Reyes, Tejada, Furcal, Tulo, Greene and Theriot. In one of my keeper leagues, I traded him for Adam Wainwright. Drew answered all the naysayers in 2008, hitting .291-21-91-67. Only Hanley Ramirez and J.J. Hardy hit more HRs, and only Hardy and Jose Reyes had more RBI than Drew.

Going into 2009, he could be the 4th SS off the board in NL only snake drafts depending on where Rafael Furcal signs in the offseason. I think he will end up with more HRs than any SS not named Hanley since he hits in a hitter friendly ballpark in Arizona. He also could easily lead all NL shortstops in RBI should Arizona find a legitimate leadoff hitter and drop him in their batting order.

Where would you draft Drew amongst NL shortstops in 2009?

BA's Jim Callis on World Series possibilities

raygu — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 19:55:23 -0000

Tim (O.C., Ca): Jim, Do you think the Dodgers can beat the Red Sox in a World Series? They certainly have the pitching and now with Manny I think he would want to prove something to Red Sox management. You agree?

Jim Callis: Like, what, he's a great player when he tries? I think Red Sox management already knew that. The Dodgers can beat the Red Sox or Rays in the Series . . . there won't be a prohibitive favorite and anything can happen in a short series.

that's what I;m talking about!!! One can dream, can't they?

Fantasy Baseball: Mark DeRosa

raygu — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 02:08:28 -0000

The Chicago Cubs recent sweep at the hands ot the Los Angeles Dodgers was quite a surprise....even for a diehard Dodgers fan. The Cubs had just finished a great year, winning the NL Central for the 2nd straight year and were the favorites to make the World Series and break the 100 year curse. One of the reasons for the Cubs success this year was the hitting of their 2bman Mark DeRosa.

DeRosa was drafted in the 12th round of my NL only snake draft league behind the following 2bman: Utley, Phillips, Hudson, K. Johnson, Uggla, Weeks, Kent, Matsui and Tad Iguchi of all people. In my two auction leagues, he was drafted at $11 in one, and retained at $6 in the other. Needless to say, DeRosa outperformed all but Chase Utley, Dan Uggla and Brandon Phillips if you factor in steals. Derosa hit .285-21-103-87-6 in 505 ABs. He also has eligibility at 3B and in the OF.

Going into 2009, because he hits in the solid Cubs lineup, and can play several positions, DeRosa should be drafted ahead of all NL 2bman not named Utley and Uggla in my opinion. Amongst NL 2bman, only Utley, Uggla and Wigginton hit more HRs, only Utley and Uggla had more RBI, and only Utley scored more runs, than DeRosa did in 2008.

The question on my mind will be: can he repeat his 2008 performance in 2009? His past performance since becoming a regular says no. I think, for the reasons mentioned previously, he can repeat his 2008 numbers, with maybe a slight drop in the power numbers.

What do faketeamers think?

Jonathon Broxton

raygu — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 03:27:31 -0000

one scout's opinion-from SI's Jon Heyman's article today:

[Closer Jonathan] Broxton is awesome. He throws 100 mph and he has a 90-mph slider. He's better than [Jonathan] Papelbon.''

WOW!!! And I didn't extend him in UBA....another terrible decision.

Year End Trade Analysis: Rolling the Dice-Came up 7's

raygu — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 17:04:33 -0000

Back on August 14th, I posted an article telling you about the trade decision I made in my UBA NL-only keeper leagues. At the time I was in 2nd place in the league (Eric and a few commenters on this site are owners in this league). My decision was to trade for a $50 Manny Ramirez and $1 Ryan Spilborghs in exchange for a $15 Jeremy Hermida, and roll the dice with my closers Jonathon Broxton and Salomon Torres. My thought was that, instead of trading for a 3rd closer-Francisco Cordero, I already had a possible 3rd closer on my roster-either Adam Wainwright or Manny Corpas. I was rolling the dice on one of them becoming a closer.

At the time of the deal, Wainwright was rumored to return from the DL as the Cardinals closer. Then he was rumored to come back as a starter. Then as closer again. Ultimately, he came back as a starter. Corpas was the heir apparent as the Rockies closer should Brian Fuentes get traded. The Rockies were playing terrible at the time, so a Fuentes trade looked likely. Then a funny thing happened. They started winning...and winning....and winning. By the 8/31 trade deadline, the Rockies were still in the wildcard race. Some thought they could overtake the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, who at the time were not playing well. So Fuentes was not dealt. And Corpas did not get any chance to close.

Before the deal I was in 2nd place 4.5 points out of first place. As a result of the deal I made, I ended up in a tie for 2nd place, 3 points out of first. I did gain one point in the saves category, and one point in the HR category. But, my pitching stunk up the joint as I lost 3 points in ratio, and a few points in ERA.

Had I made the trade for Cordero, I would have made up 3 more points in the saves category, but I would have lost a point in HRs and RBIs without Manny....net-net...I would have gained one additional point...giving me 2nd overall. In addition, in a late season roster move I dropped Felipe Lopez, and his cheap $7 contract, to grab Rafael Furcal, and his cheaper $10 contract out of the FA pool, when he was activated from the DL. This move probably cost me 1 point in average as Lopez went off going 8 for 12 with a HR and 4 RBIs. I chose to drop Lopez instead of Ty Wigginton because I assumed Wiggy would drive in more runs, and play more the Lopez. I thought wrong.

So the Cordero deal, and dropping Wiggy instead of Lopez, would have guaranteed me 2nd place to myself, but not first....which was the big prize. Those of you who said I made the wrong trade decision back in August were correct.

So much for rolling the dice on closers. Never again.

So who's shopping closers this offseason??

NY Mets: Fire Randolph and Extend Minaya???

raygu — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 02:42:32 -0000

How many others are just as confused as I am with the Mets decision to extend the contract of GM Omar Minaya? Is this the same guy that made the following decisions:

Traded Lastings Milledge for Brian Schneider and Ryan Church

Traded Heath Bell and Royce Ring for Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson

Traded Guillermo Mota for Johnny Estrada

Traded Brian Bannister for Ambiorix Burgos

Signed an injury-prone Luis Castillo to a 4 year deal

OK, granted he did make a few good trades:Maine and Santana come to mind, but GMs are graded on EVERY trade and signing they make. I highlight these deals as all of these guys have gone on to perform very well, or in Milledges case, will prove to be better long term, than what Minaya got in return. With the Mets bullpen woes the last two years, one has to think that Heath Bell and Guillermo Mota would have been upgrades to what the Mets have been throwing out there to help keep leads since Billy Wagner went down.

After tonight's game, the decision to extend Minaya makes one wonder if the Wilpon's are following Wall Street's lead by rewarding him for failure......failing to make the playoffs in 3 of his 4 years as the Mets GM. With the Phillies win tonight ,combined with the fact that the Mets have to face the Marlins ace Ricky Nolasco tomorrow, the Mets chances of making the playoffs are as good as Merrill Lynch surviving without the sweet Bank of America deal a few weeks ago....slim and none.

The reason for the Mets failures are well documented-the bullpen has been horrific. Minaya had every opportunity to improve his bullpen at the trade deadline and did not, yet he has been willing to deal young talent and get nothing in return....except for the Santana deal. The decision to not make a deal for bullpen help probably cost the Mets the division and a playoff spot, as they have blown lead after lead since Wagner was placed on the DL.

For all this, Minaya gets a new 4 year deal. Why?

Fantasy Baseball: Adrian Gonzalez

raygu — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 04:06:44 -0000

Coming off a season where he went 30-100-101-.282, Adrian Gonzalez has followed that up with a 35-117-101-.281 season. Gonzalez has personally accounted for approximately 20% of the Padres runs this season on a very bad Padres team. As I type this, Gonzalez hits his 36th HR.

In my NL only snake draft league, Gonzalez was drafted in the 4th round after the following 1bman: Howard, Pujols, Teixeira, Berkman and Fielder. Going into 2009, I can see Gonzalez getting drafted before Berkman and Fielder. Fielder has disappointed some fantasy owners this season following his 50 HR season with "just" 34 HRs this season; and Berkman has slumped badly after a very hot start hitting in a hitter park.

Amongst NL 1bman, only Howard and Delgado have hit more HRs, and only Howard has more RBIs, than Gonzalez. That's surprising considering the lineup that hits around him in SD.

How many of you expected Gonzalez to improve upon his 2007 season? How many of you wonder how Gonzalez would perform in a better lineup?

We may get our answer over the next year or two as he is up for salary arbitration, and the Padres are already rumored to be cutting payroll next season.

D'Backs GM Josh Byrnes: Ned Colletti's Twin??

raygu — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 02:25:40 -0000

The Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes has had a quick path to stardom as a major league baseball GM. He worked his way through the Cleveland, Colorado and Boston front offices, and was hired by the Dbacks in 2005 to be their GM. He came to the DBacks with much hype and praise for helping the Red Sox win their first World Series in 86 years.

He inherited a young talented team lead by the likes of Brandon Webb, Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds, Stephen Drew and Conor Jackson. He had a deep bullpen lead by closer Jose Valverde, Brandon Lyon and Tony Pena. He was also blessed with a deep, talented farm system until 2008.

Last year the DBacks won the West with a 90-72 record, swept the Chicago Cubs in the NLDS, eventually getting swept by the hot Colorado Rockies in the NLCS. For such a young team to win the division, and to make it to the NLCS, Byrnes earned praise for sticking with his youngsters and winning the NL West.

So what did Byrnes do in the offseason. He started by giving Eric "I had a career year" Byrnes to a 3 year $30 million dollar deal, even when he had not one, but two, promising outfield prospects in Carlos Quentin, who I will discuss shortly, and Carlos Gonzalez. Byrnes only managed 206 ABs before hamstring injuries put him out for the season. His stat line looked like this: 6-23-4-.209-.272-.369. Not what you'd expect for $10 million a season.

Byrnes then got a little creative and made several blockbuster trades on 12/14/2007. He decided to trade away closer Jose Valverde, he of the league leading 47 saves in 2007. In addition, he landed stud starting pitcher Dan Haren from the A's in return for a plethora of prospects....good prospects. Here's a rundown of the deals he made:

Traded OF Carlos Quentin to the White Sox in exchange for INF Chris Carter.

Acquired RHP Billy Buckner from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for INF Alberto Callaspo

Acquired RHP Dan Haren and RHP Connor Robertson from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for LHP Brett Anderson, LHP Dana Eveland, LHP Greg Smith, INF Chris Carter, OF Aaron Cunningham and OF Carlos Gonzalez

Acquired RHP Chad Qualls, RHP Juan Gutierrez and OF Chris Burke from the Houston Astros in exchange for RHP Jose Valverde

Well, we all know how well the Carlos Quentin deal has gone. Quentin has broken out in a major way this year in Chicago: 36-100-.288-.394-.571. Mighty impressive!! Decision: Loser

It's too early grade the Buckner-Callaspo deal, but suffice to say, he didn't lose this one....yet.

Dan Haren deal: Decison: Winner.....for now. I have to think that down the road the A's may win this deal somehow with Carter (he hit 40+ bombs this year), Anderson, Cunningham (he hit a game winning HR on Sunday), and Gonzalez.

Jose Valverde-Chad Qualls deal: Decision: LOSER. GIven the fact that the DBacks bullpen has imploded over the last month, and Valverde saving 42 games with the Astros, Byrnes has lost this deal in a 9th round knockout.

The Quentin deal is the real question mark as Quentin was already a top hitting prospect who was injured for most of the 2007 season. The fact that he would offer power off the bench after the Byrnes signing, or even spot starts should someone get injured or strike out too much, keeping Quentin should have been a no-brainer. Byrnes thought otherwise. Once Justin Upton joined Byrnes on the DL, Byrnes was forced to play 1Bman Conor Jackson in LF, and Alex Romero in RF....that is until they traded for Reds power hitter Adam Dunn.

Adding Dunn was needed to fill the missing power in the Dbacks lineup. He also brought with him a ton of K's, something the Dbacks do ALOT. Between Dunn, Chris Young, Justin Upton, and Mark Reynolds, they have 2 who will strikeout 200+ times in Dunn and Reynolds, and 2 others who will strikeout 150+ times in Young and Upton. Adding Dunn to a lineup that struggles to score runs only compounds the problem, it doesn;t help. Dunn does walk alot, but he is a turtle on the basepaths.

Here is what Byrnes had to say, in an interview with ESPNs Jonah Keri, on the Quentin deal:

At the time, we felt like Upton would be ready to play in 2008. With Quentin the debate was, would we be better off with him and $10 million of spending room, or with Byrnes plus the trade value of Quentin? In this market it was difficult to predict, but it was at least a fair debate. Also, in a lineup that at times was struggling, Byrnes gave us a bit more certainty of performance. What he and Hudson did in the first half while the young guys struggled helped us survive.

Nethier Hudson nor Byrnes gave him anything close to certainty of performance, as they both are out for the season. I think he would have been better off keeping Quentin, and spending the $10 million on a 5th starter and a backup 2bman. In hindsight, it is very easy to make that call given Quentin's breakout year, but Byrnes had a young team ready to go on a run of division titles had he kept Valverde and Quentin. He still could have made the Haren deal substituting another prospect for Chris Carter.

Byrnes may have done too much tinkering with his roster back in December 2007, witnessed by the Dbacks going from a 4.5 game lead to a 4.5 game deficit within the span of 2 weeks or so. He sorely misses Valverde at the back end of his bullpen, and Quentin could have provided the power and OBP sorely missing from this lineup.

Coming from a Dodgers fan, I thank him for tinkering with a roster that won 90 games last season.

Is Josh Byrnes the 2nd coming of John Shuerholtz, or is he a mega-hyped GM for working under Theo Epstein?

Poll

Is Josh Byrnes the next Ned Colletti?

Fantasy Baseball: Andre Ethier

raygu — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 18:40:00 -0000

Coming into spring training this year, the Los Angeles Dodgers had 4 outfielders for 3 spots: the recently signed Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and the overpaid Juan Pierre. Most Dodgers fans, including me, were adamant that the Dodgers outfield should be Ethier-Jones-Kemp. I voiced my opinion on numerous occasions here on Faketeams. But the fact that Joe Torre was 1) in his first year as Dodgers manager, and 2) loves veterans, it appeared that Pierre would be the starter, and Ethier and Kemp would battle for the 3rd outfield spot. But, Ethier settled the argument by having a much better spring training than Juan Pierre, and won the starting leftfield spot, with Jones and Kemp.

Ethier had a solid April, but began to slump in May, continued to slump in June and started losing ABs to Pierre. Ether handled sitting on the bench with class saying all the right things and was a team player. But then he got hot again in July and has remained hot through August and the first week in September.

He now leads the Dodgers in HRs after hitting his 20th last night in a rout of Dan Haren and the Diamondbacks 7-0. He went 5 for 5 last night with a HR and 5 RBIs. In September he is 11 for 15 with 2 HR and 6 RBIs. Since the All Star break he is hitting .310 with 9 HRs, 24 RBIs, slugging .613 with an OPS of .976.

Ethier has solidified his spot in the Dodgers lineup this year, while Pierre has sat on the bench and complained to the press, something Ethier took in stride back in June.

On the season, Ethier is hitting .292 with 20 HRs, 65 RBIs and an OPS of .866. He plays a solid OF, displays an above average arm, and somehow leads the Dodgers in HRs.

Is this a breakout season for Ethier? Can he improve upon his power numbers in 2009?