SB Nation User Blog: raygu

Fantasy Baseball: Corrected xFIP Tables

raygu — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 18:07:35 -0000

The site had problems with my original post this morning, and in my haste to get it posted correctly, I did not realize some columns were not displayed. Here is what should have posted:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	E-F	xFIP	E-X
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.297	76.60%	2.87	0.1	2.82	0.05
Tim Lincecum	10.4	2.72	3.84	0.297	75.90%	2.48	0.13	2.87	-0.4
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.313	79.00%	2.79	-0.3	3.05	-0.3
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	0.28	77.00%	3.14	-0.1	3.08	0.06
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.323	76.90%	3.41	0.26	3.13	0.28
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.313	79.30%	2.16	-0.2	3.15	-1
Justin Verlander	10.1	2.36	4.27	0.328	72.70%	3.45	0.65	3.26	0.19
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	0.336	61.00%	5.06	1.71	3.28	1.78
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	0.302	71.60%	3.86	0.23	3.35	0.51
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	-0.5	3.36	-0.7

And the sleeper table after the jump

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	xFIP	E-X
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.28	1.78
Carl Pavano	6.64	1.76	3.77	0.335	66.10%	5.1	3.96	1.14
Livan Hernandez	5	3.28	1.52	0.326	67.30%	5.44	4.78	0.66
Cole Hamels	7.81	2	3.91	0.325	72.10%	4.32	3.69	0.63
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	0.316	71.60%	4.38	3.76	0.62
Jason Hammel	6.78	2.14	3.17	0.337	69.50%	4.33	3.81	0.52
Mike Pelfrey	5.22	3.22	1.62	0.321	66.70%	5.03	4.52	0.51
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.35	0.51
Derek Lowe	5.13	2.91	1.76	0.33	68.70%	4.67	4.19	0.48
Brett Anderson	7.7	2.31	3.33	0.317	67.00%	4.06	3.61	0.45

Down on the Farm: John Sickel's Top 20 Pirates Prospects for 2010

raygu — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 03:22:58 -0000

Sickels posted his Top 20 Pirates prospect for 2010 yesterday afternoon with a surprise number 1 prospect.....just kidding. Sickels has thrid base prospect Pedro Alvarez as his number 1 Buccos prospect, and here is what he said about him:

1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A: Bat looks excellent. Even if he moves to first base, his bat will be good enough for him to be an All-Star. Upside: David Ortiz.

I wonder if the upside comment refers to Alvarez's bat or weight in comparison to Ortiz??

And here is what he said about a guy I recently traded for in the UBA league:

2) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B: I don't know if I agree with the Pirates about his power, but I do believe them about his age and at 21 he is still VERY young with high upside.

Head on over to Minor League Ball to check out the rest of the Pirates Top 20. It appears the system is improving, but they have alot of catching up to do after some horrible drafts in recent years.

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 xFIP Leaders and Some 2010 Sleepers

raygu — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:24:55 -0000

Recently, Fangraphs has teamed up with The Hardball Times to include the THT pitching stat called Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, or xFIP.
xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. <strong>Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA</strong>

With that said, here are the 2009 xFIP leaders:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87	2.77	2.82	0.05
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48	2.34	2.87	-0.39
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.83	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79	3.06	3.05	-0.26
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	1.06	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14	3.23	3.08	0.06
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.89	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41	3.15	3.13	0.28
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.43	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16	2.33	3.15	-0.99
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45	2.8	3.26	0.19
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.66	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	3.11	3.36	-0.73

Here are some sleepers for 2010 based on the difference between their 2009 ERA and xFIP:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Carl Pavano	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	0.335	66.10%	5.1	4	3.96	1.14
Livan Hernandez	5	3.28	1.52	0.93	1.56	0.326	67.30%	5.44	4.44	4.78	0.66
Cole Hamels	7.81	2	3.91	1.12	1.29	0.325	72.10%	4.32	3.72	3.69	0.63
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	0.97	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38	3.91	3.76	0.62
Jason Hammel	6.78	2.14	3.17	0.87	1.39	0.337	69.50%	4.33	3.71	3.81	0.52
Mike Pelfrey	5.22	3.22	1.62	0.88	1.51	0.321	66.70%	5.03	4.39	4.52	0.51
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Derek Lowe	5.13	2.91	1.76	0.74	1.52	0.33	68.70%	4.67	4.06	4.19	0.48
Brett Anderson	7.7	2.31	3.33	1.03	1.28	0.317	67.00%	4.06	3.69	3.61	0.45

You can see there is a correlation between high BABIP, low LOB% and the E-X column. The E-X column takes the difference between the putcher's ERA and his xFIP. I have written about previously, how Ricky Nolasco could be a very undervalued pitcher come draft day 2010. I have him in the UBA league at $10, but risk losing him if I don't give him a raise. This table screams to give him a raise, but I am not so sure.

Poll

Should I give Nolasco a $5 raise in 2010?

Susan Slusser from the SF Chronicle on Wallace trade The A's apparently came to doubt the stocky...

raygu — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 13:53:30 -0000

Susan Slusser from the SF Chronicle on Wallace trade

The A's apparently came to doubt the stocky Wallace's ability to play third at the big-league level, and the team already has plenty of young first basemen, including Daric Barton, Chris Carter and Sean Doolittle.

In addition, the team recently acquired third baseman Jake Fox from the Cubs, and he is not considered a top-notch defensive player, either. Therefore, Oakland is planning to move second-base prospect Adrian Cardenas to third base full time, especially with Jemile Weeks, the team's top pick in the 2008 draft, performing well at second.

for those of you in AL leagues

www.sfgate.com

Mike Cameron on his 2009 SB totals On how many bases he sees himself stealing at the age of 36...

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 22:51:45 -0000

Mike Cameron on his 2009 SB totals

On how many bases he sees himself stealing at the age of 36 if he is given an opportunity to run:"I think that last year was a little bit of an aberration, because it’s the first time I’ve ever had single-digit stolen bases since I’ve been in the big leagues. I kind of ran into a little situation where I had to abide by the rules of the manager, even though I’ve been pretty successful, I mean, 80 percent of the time that I’ve ran. You kind of get into a mode of being aggressive, but probably passive-aggressive on the base paths. But I could still score from first base on a double, and I probably could do it here too if it rattles around the corner a little bit. So I definitely can get my totals back up into the 20s."

www.baseballprospectus.com

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:00:13 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

23 days ago: FILE - In this Oct. 8, 2009, file photo, St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols hits a single during the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Pujols was unanimously voted National League MVP on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, becoming the baseball first player to repeat since Barry Bonds won four in a row from 2001-04. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

View full size photo »

I participated, I use that term loosely, in a 12 Team Mixed League mock draft over at Mock Draft Central on Monday night. I missed alot of my picks because I was busy following the Roy Halladay trade rumors. But I made sure I made my fist three picks, as I was picking from the first position.

Here is how the first two rounds went:

R1 P1 Albert Pujols

R1 P2 Hanley Ramirez

R1 P3 Chase Utley

R1 P4 Alex Rodriguez

R1 P5 Ryan Braun

R1 P6 Mark Teixeira

R1 P7 Tim Lincecum

R1 P8 Matt Kemp

R1 P9 Prince Fielder

R1 P10 Miguel Cabrera

R1 P11 Evan Longoria

R1 P12 David Wright

The second round is after the jump:

R2 P1 Ian Kinsler

R2 P2 Justin Morneau

R2 P3 Ryan Howard

R2 P4 Joe Mauer

R2 P5 Carl Crawford

R2 P6 Grady Sizemore

R2 P7 Jacoby Ellsbury

R2 P8 Mark Reynolds

R2 P9 Jason Bay

R2 P10 Troy Tulowitzki

R2 P11 Zack Greinke

R2 P12 Justin Upton

With the first pick in round 3 I selected Matt Holliday.

I was surprised Upton and Holliday were still available that late in round 2.

Poll

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

Down on the Farm: More Snippets from Baseball America's Top 10 Lists

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 04:22:01 -0000

Baseball America recently completed their Top 10 prospects lists for all National League teams, so to complete the Snippets series, here are some from the NL West lists.

Brandon Allen, 1B, ARI

Strengths: A star linebacker in high school, Allen has huge raw power. For a big guy, he has some snap in his bat and doesn't have a long swing. He toned down his swing and hit more balls to the opposite field in 2009, allowing him to hit a career-high .298 in the minors. He does a good job of punishing mistakes. He has worked hard to improve his defense.

More after the jump:

Ryan Wheeler, 1B, ARI

Strengths: Potentially the best offensive player in the system, Wheeler has a rhythmic, balanced swing. He has a feel for recognizing pitches and controls the strike zone well. He drives the ball from gap to gap and earns high marks for his plate coverage, particularly in his ability to drive the ball the other way. His offensive package reminds scouts of Joey Votto. An average defender at first base, Wheeler has solid hands and arm strength for the position.

Chris Withrow, SP, LAD

The Future: Withrow fared well in his late-season promotion to Double-A and will begin 2010 there. Despite his lack of experience, he's on track to reach the major leagues by the second half of 2011 and looks like a potential top-of-the-rotation starter.

Donovan Tate, OF, SD

The Future: The Padres envision Tate developing into a power/speed center fielder who combines the best attributes of Mike Cameron and Andruw Jones. A solid showing in spring training should earn him an assignment to low Class A Fort Wayne, and from there the speed at which his bat develops will dictate his pace.

Tyler Matzek, SP, COL

Strengths: Scouts thought he was the best high school lefthander to come out of Southern California since Cole Hamels in 2002, and Matzek has better stuff. He has a legitimate four-pitch arsenal, starting with a fastball that sat at 90-94 mph for most of the spring before jumping to the upper 90s right before the draft. His curveball and slider are two distinct breaking pitches and both have the potential to become plus offerings. He also shows feel for a changeup, though he didn't need the pitch very often as an amateur.

Thomas Neal, OF, SFG

Strengths: Neal became a more complete hitter in 2009. He seldom strays from his plan at the plate and takes aggressive swings on mistakes. He has the bat speed to turn on quality fastballs and shows extra-base power from pole to pole. His arm strength has returned and he racked up 15 assists from left field last season.

Down on the Farm: Project Prospects Top 25 NL West Prospects

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 03:29:34 -0000

by Ross D. Franklin - AP

2 months ago: Arizona Diamondbacks' Brandon Allen connects on an RBI double against the San Francisco Giants in the second inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

View full size photo »

Adam Foster from Project Prospect posted his Top 25 NL West prospects yesterday over at Project Prospect.

Here's a glimpse at the top 5:

1. Buster Posey

2. Madison Bumgarner

3. James Darnell

4. Jaff Decker

5. Jhoulys Chacin

Here is what Adam has to say about a guy I recently traded for in the UBA league:

Brandon Allen

From solid AA bat to PCL HR machine to MLB K-king -- 40 Ks over 116 MLB PA

It remains to be seen if Allen will stick with the Diamondbacks out of spring training. Even though he didn't hit for a high average in the AFL, he did lead the league in walks with 22.

Down on the Farm: John Sickel's Top 20 Red Sox Prospects for 2010

raygu — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 04:02:37 -0000

John Sickels posted his Top 20 Red Sox prospects for 2010 last night, so be sure to head on over to Minor League Ball and see what he has to say about your favorite Red Sox prospect.

Here is Sickels on outfield prospect Ryan Westmoreland:

1) Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Grade B+: I love this guy: Five Tool/Seven Skill player who can do everything. I expect more power will come. Just needs to stay healthy.

I have to think Padres GM Ned Hoyer would want him in any deal for Adrian Gonzalez.

MLB Trade Rumors: Red Sox Sign John Lackey and Mike Cameron; Is Deal for Adrian Gonzalez Next?

raygu — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:15:27 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

2 months ago: San Diego Padres' Adrian Gonzalez follows the flight of his single to drive in two runs against the Colorado Rockies in the ninth inning of the Rockies' 11-10 victory in a baseball game in Denver on Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

View full size photo »

The Boston Red Sox also made news on Monday signing starting pitcher John Lackey to a reported 5 year $85 million deal, and signing Mike Cameron to a 2 year $15 million deal. It appears that Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is placing more and more value into defensive metrics illustrated by his signing of Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron. Epstein appears to have washed his hands of Jason Bay and his big bat/no glove in left field.

Epstein is also close to dealing third baseman Mike Lowell to the Rangers for catcher Max Ramirez. Lowell has been injury prone over the last two years, and Epstein is looking to sign Adrian Beltre to play 3B, or is he?

Now that the Sox have signed John Lackey, they have an extra starting pitcher that new Padres GM Ned Hoyer covets in Clay Bucholz. Could the Sox be entertaining the idea of del Bucholz now that they have signed Lackey? A package of Bucholz, Casey Kelly, Ryan Westmoreland and 1-2 more prospects would surely entice Hoyer who knows the Sox system inside and out. And Gonzalez's bat and glove would be an ideal fit for Epstein's new approach to building a ballclub.

Poll

SB Nation User Blog: raygu

Fantasy Baseball: Corrected xFIP Tables

Down on the Farm: John Sickel's Top 20 Pirates Prospects for 2010

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 xFIP Leaders and Some 2010 Sleepers

Should I give Nolasco a $5 raise in 2010?

Susan Slusser from the SF Chronicle on Wallace trade The A's apparently came to doubt the stocky...

Mike Cameron on his 2009 SB totals On how many bases he sees himself stealing at the age of 36...

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

Down on the Farm: More Snippets from Baseball America's Top 10 Lists

Down on the Farm: Project Prospects Top 25 NL West Prospects

Down on the Farm: John Sickel's Top 20 Red Sox Prospects for 2010

MLB Trade Rumors: Red Sox Sign John Lackey and Mike Cameron; Is Deal for Adrian Gonzalez Next?

Will Padres GM Ned Hoyer finally cave and deal Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox?