SB Nation User Blog: raysfaninminnesota

Billy Wagner's cost appeal

raysfaninminnesota — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 14:58:57 -0000

What would it take to make someone like Billy Wagner attractive enough to sign him if the Sox offer him arb? What if we could sign him for essentially what we signed Percy for? After the latest report, there is speculation he might lower his asking price to make himself more appealing. So my question is, is he, at this speculated price, appealing to you?

ESPN's Buster Olney: "Wagner made $10.5 million in 2009, but if he were to make himself very affordable (for example, two years for a total of $10 million), a team would look at the savings for someone who is capable of being an elite closer as being enough to offset the potential loss of the draft pick."

crossing over to the dark side

raysfaninminnesota — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:05:45 -0000

For the first time I explored the area of 'superior' stats. I pushed past ERA to FIP and WAR. While it is still a scary place, I have had an epiphany that I'd like to share. Being an advocate for pursuing Wagner or trading for Soria, or Bell, there are two players that stand out the most.

Kiko Calero had a huge season last year. A larger season than I first thought. His 1.4 WAR was same as Rafael Betancourt and only .1 WAR away from Huston Street, Trevor Hoffman, and Francisco Cordero. Better yet, before his shoulder problems he had another 1.4 WAR season in 2006. His low salary and potential should make him a high candidate. Bill James also expects good things: 3.38 ERA 9.42 K/9, 3.4 FIP

Another guy who many here want the Rays to take a flier on is Joaquin Benoit. From 2005-2007, Benoit posted three consecutive seasons of 1.4 WAR or greater (1.6, 1.4, 2.0). Definitely worth a flier if he's healthy.

If the Rays have a little more money to spend, Rafael Soriano and Billy Wagner make the most sense to target. Bill James expects big things (2.18 ERA, 10.89 K/9, 2.65 FIP) from Wagner and Soriano picked the right time to put up a season equivalent to Mariano Rivera and better than Jonathan Papelbon (Soriano and Rivera 2.0 WAR and Papelbon 1.9 WAR). Soriano put up a career best FIP of 2.54 which was better than AL ROY Andrew Bailey and 9th best overall.

But the best trade candidate is not Soria or Bell, but Michael Wuertz, another favorite of many here. With Joey Devine returning from injury and the bullpen depth they have (along with Wuertz being in arbitration) he's a prime candidate to be moved in the right deal. If the Rays can find a way to get their hands on him, I'm sure they will. Pretty much pick any statistical category and he's among the top of the leaderboard. If you want FIP, he's 4th, if you want K/9 he's 4th (tied with Nathan), 8th in WHIP, and 3rd in WAR. Bottom line is, he's pretty amazing. It wouldn't surprise me if the Rays felt he was the best option to target to fit their philosophy of a closer-by-committee bullpen. And if not, he's the best set-up man available.

So on my perusal of FanGraphs, I learned a lot of things. Michael Wuertz and Kiko Calero, to me, represent the best options (based on ability, potential price, etc) for the Rays. I still wouldn't mind Wagner in the right deal (but if he's offered arbitration, I can see how that takes away his appeal).

So this is where my journey led me. Do you agree? Of all the bullpen options out there, would these be your top FA and trade targets?

Some more rosterbation fun

raysfaninminnesota — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:10:23 -0000

In addition to all the rosterbation rumors of Milton Bradley (and the soon-to-be rumored 3 way between Mets, Cubs and Rays) when looking around the league one team sticks out like a sore thumb who matches up best with the Rays needs...and that team is the Oakland Athletics.

Currently they have amazing (and cheap) bullpen depth. They have a young catcher who would look good in a Rays uni. They have SS needs and maybe OF needs. Those happen to be areas of depth for the Rays.

If the Rays truly don't believe they can resign CC or don't think that's the best use of resources, maybe him and Brignac could make a nice package to bring in Kurt Suzuki, Michael Wuertz, and Andrew Bailey. The Rays may have to send along someone like Nick Barnese to complete the deal, but this would be an extremely cheap deal to make, as those three are not likely to bank over 3-5 million combined next season.

Oakland has Joey Devine coming back from Tommy John surgery and latest reports have him way ahead of schedule. They have other young arms that have performed pretty well last year. CC could be Matt Holliday version 2.0 for them, and they'd have their shortstop of the future under lock and key for 6 team-controlled seasons. And if it cost the Rays Nick Barnese to make the deal happen, it would still be worth it, especially if the Rays wanted to dabble in the free agent market. (They'd still have up to 6 mil of what they had budgeted for CC and whatever they were willing to spend in free agency if they didn't make the trade).

Just for fun, this would give the Rays a bullpen of:

Bailey, Howell, Wuertz, Wheeler, Balfour, (Choate), Cormier/Sonny.

Not to mention a catcher who hit for over 50 extra base hits while playing solid defense behind the plate.

The depth for both teams matches each other's needs. And with two free-wheeling GM's in Friedman and Beane, it seems like it might make for an excellent deal waiting to happen. Thoughts?

Time for a little bullpen de ja vu

raysfaninminnesota — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:09:45 -0000

There are times when some things deserve a second go-around. For the Rays bullpen, there is someone who deserves that chance--Danys Baez. The 32 year old reliever posted solid numbers for Baltimore this past season and was very effective against right-handed hitters, holding them to around a .200 average. With all the big name relievers out there, Baez is the type to get overlooked. But he is a workhorse, has a ton of experience pitching in the AL East and would be more than willing to return to Tampa Bay once again with his home still in Miami.

Based on financial cost and proven ability, Baez and Calero represent the best arms to target. Both have shown they can handle the AL, one is one year removed from surgery and the other has settled into a solid middle reliever on a bad team. Neither one of these guys will make the big bucks, but both of these guys can stablize our bullpen.

It still would be nice to add 1 more 'sure' thing (as if that even exists in the relief world) like a Rafael Betancourt, Billy Wagner, Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano, but the Rays may not be able to afford that. But if they add Baez and Calero (and maybe resign Choate) that will still stabilize a bullpen in need of some tweaking.

Howell, Wheeler, Balfour, Baez, Calero, Choate, Cormier -- I could live with that...could you?

How new mayor affects Rays

raysfaninminnesota — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 02:52:34 -0000

Now that we know who the mayor is, this is just a cut and paste out of a previous article that can be read in its entirety here.

Bill Foster[ix]:

I am fully aware of the desire of the Rays organization to have a new stadium, and equally aware of the respective economic impacts 1) for the owners with the construction of a new stadium, and 2) to the City by having a major league baseball team in St. Petersburg. Historically, in the late 80's and early 90's, I was a part of a team that sold seat deposits, and lobbied for the expansion of MLB to St. Petersburg. After a great effort, and many heartaches, we finally succeeded. With all of the community effort it took to get the team, we must exert as much, if not more, effort to keep this team in St. Petersburg. I will take a leadership role with our "partners and stakeholders" (our Citizens, Rays, MLB, Florida, Pinellas), to negotiate the use agreement of a new facility located in St. Petersburg, with construction beginning sometime after 2015, which encompasses all 85+ acres of the Trop site. Whatever the use and financing terms, it must be such that passes the muster of our citizen who may be asked to pay a portion of the bills. My terms: 1) approved by voter referendum; 2) construction to begin after 2015 (when the property is free and clear); 3) little taxpayer burden, with primary financing by the Rays, TDC, and bonds secured by revenues; and 4) constructed at existing Trop site. If we all do our jobs equitably and correctly, it should pass a vote by our citizens, but timing, location, design, and financing are critical elements.

Analysis: Candidate Foster’s plan contains more concrete details than any other and his history with Tropicana underscores a complete understanding of the issues. He is committed to keeping baseball at the current site, which the Rays and the ABC Committee have determined is no longer feasible. His statements regarding a potential financing structure are realistic and well balanced.

Burrell or Bradley?

raysfaninminnesota — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:32:17 -0000

Burrell or Bradley?

Last offseason there was a good debate on this website on who we should pursue as our DH. Here Bradley was listed as a prime candidate. But the Cubs overpaid and we went with Burrell. Fast forward to now and neither team got what they wanted. Bradley was placed in a high-stress situation and Burrell apparantly never adjusted to switching leagues and positions. Would a change of scenery do them both well?

The Times Romano believes a swap (if the Rays got additional salary relief for Bradley's 12 mil 2011 salary) would be a good idea.

So the question is, now that the Rays may have a chance to go back and make the decision all over again...would you change it? Which would you rather have (if the Cubs pay most of his 12 mil 2011 salary), Burrell or Bradley?

Rays and Vlad would make me glad

raysfaninminnesota — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 20:17:52 -0000

The Rays have a few holes to fill this offseason (see catcher and bullpen) but there may be something to consider if this offseason is another product of reduced prices thanks to the economy. These are the years the Rays need to excel in free agency. They can get talent for prices they couldn't even have touched a few years ago and soon enough will probably not be able to touch again. One such talent is Vladimir Guerrero.

Guerrero may be in the final stages of his career but his bat still has a few years left on it. Coming off an injury-shortened season, and in this economy and with his once good defense taken away by age, he's only going to be viewed as a DH, and is only going to make a portion of his previous year's salary. There already is a platform to go off of who is on his team: Bobby Abreu

Like Abreu, Guerrero has been a model of consistency, aiming for his 13th consecutive season of .300. 11 of his past 12 seasons he has had no fewer than 25 HRs (this injury-shortened season being the only season with less). This marks only the second time in 12 years he will end up with less than 500 AB. And in his entire career he's never reached the 100 strikeout plateau (highest was 95, but never more than 77 in last 8 years), an attractive feature to a team with a lot of swing and misses.

If the Rays could acquire him for Abreu-money (of 2008 not what he'll get this offseason), it's an option worth pursuing. The roadblock obviously is where does he fit in the Rays lineup. It would be nice if he could play in the outfield once in a while, but with the turf, that would appear likely.

The only scenario where this plays out is at DH. This would happen only if the Rays could trade Burrell. I may be completely wrong, but I wonder if it still is possible, provided the Rays pay a good portion of his salary. Would a team be willing to pick him up (without giving up anything of real value in return) if the Rays paid half his salary and kept Burrell's incoming cost to say, 4 million? I wonder if a team would view that as a buy-low opportunity.

If it were even possible to trade Burrell, the 4-5 mil of savings would come close to paying for Guerrero. In essence it wouldn't cost them any more than the overall cost of Burrell. But I'm guessing this still is just wishful thinking.

Either way, I wouldn't push it past Maddon to find a way to pair back up with Guerrero in St. Pete. If at that price, it is indeed worth considering.

Are there any others out there that might be 'good deals' in this economy, worth the Rays considering? Jermaine Dye is another who might fit that bill, although there are now questions as to how much he can still play in the field.

3 major changes brings Rays playoffs next year

raysfaninminnesota — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 17:52:09 -0000

The Rays have most of what they need from within the organization. The Rays have two outfields in AAA that are ready to start, and a shortstop and utility player. They have a good bullpen arm in AA and another one working his way back from Tommy John. Starting pitching abounds. But there are 2 positions that need to be filled from elsewhere.

1) Catcher. There is absolutely no way Navy is offered arbitration by the Rays. His production does not match his salary. Some possible additions: Mike Napoli, Buster Posey, Ryan Doumit.

It would have been awesome if the Rays could have gotten Napoli in the Kazmir trade, but I don't see the Rays matching up well to make another Angels trade. Buster Posey only comes if the Rays are willing to trade Bartlett or CC, Upton...but I don't think the Giants would take Upton straight up for Posey. If this was last year...different story. But the trade that makes the most sense is for Pittsburgh's Ryan Doumit. Coming off an injury shortened season, Doumit would be a buy-low candidate and has a team-friendly contract (09:$2.05M, 10:$3.55M, 11:$5.1M, 12:$7.25M club option, 13:$8.25M club option ($0.5M buyout), along with the fact that Pittsburgh has been trading off veterans right and left.

Doumit would cost no more than Navy salary-wise and wouldn't require trading a CC or Barty to make it work.

2) Closer. Now, please, this is not a knock on Howell. He has done well in the role, but the rest of the bullpen has been overused. A closer can be expensive, but it adds value to the rest of the bullpen. It pushes Howell into a setup role with Wheeler and Balfour. It would give the Rays 4 quality late-inning relievers. Maybe the Rays could resign Choate as their LOOGY and Bradford as the ground-ball specialist on small deals. I'd rather see the Rays spend money on a closer than resign Aki, or even keeping a CC or Barty. If this team wants to rely on pitching, then it's important to add as much top-notch pitching as possible.

Possible options: Bobby Jenks, Heath Bell, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, J.J. Putz, other setup relievers

Jenks will earn too much in his final arb year, Valverde still averages over 10k/IP, but a team like the Cubs might offer him big bucks. What makes him even possible is none of the big-market teams need a closer; Boston, both New York teams, Dodgers, Angels--all set on closers. The odds are he resigns with Houston or goes to the Cubs. Best shot for the Rays? Wagner or Putz. Putz, if healthy, was very very good for Seattle, and this year was most likely an aberration with the Mets. Wagner, if he still has enough left in the tank, could be a 1 year solution (and a much better option than Percival, because Wagner has a night and day injury history compared to Percy). Bell would be a great get if available from Padres, but the trade cost would probably be prohibitive. Wagner or Putz would be good buy-low candidates. (if you could get either for a 1 yr, 4-5mil deal w/ club option, it would be worth the short-term risk)

What to do with CC, Upton or Barty? It's easy to speculate, but it depends if any team tries to blow them away with an offer. But even w/ an off-season of Doumit and Putz/Wagner wouldn't be a bad one.

Putting to bed Upton end of season rumors

raysfaninminnesota — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 23:47:00 -0000

ESPN's Buster Olney sparked a controversy saying the Rays were going to market Upton in the offseason. Upton haters have been saying good riddance because of perceived attitude issues/regression/lack of hustle, ec. Upton supporters have been screaming this is foolish to even consider because of immense potential/still under team control for a few seasons/selling low, etc.

Both sides are wrong.

The Rays should consider Upton offers the same way they would for any player. Having a surplus of outfielders means there's some flexibility there. Regardless of Upton's year, he still could fetch a very good haul.

And that is the only way he puts on a different uniform.

Adrian Gonzalez. Felix Hernandez. Matt Cain. Buster Posey. If names like these are not part of the consideration, then no trade is happening. If Upton isn't part of a Delmon Young-type package, this isn't happening.

Felix Hernandez is extremely interesting. It would take a huge package, but there are a few reasons why the Rays are a good fit. Seattle has an affection for Reid Brignac. Thanks to trading Adam Jones, they are in need for an impact CF. Some sort of a Upton/Brignac and a Niemann/Davis/Hellickson could get a deal done.

A deal like that makes sense.

Hernandez is under contract through 2011. Is two years of Hernandez worth Upton, Brignac and a Niemann/Davis? Yes and then some. Hernandez would be an even bigger name if he was in a larger market. Players of his age and caliber are rarely ever available.

Which brings us back to Upton. You don't give up on a player of his potential nor do you sell for pennies on the dollar. I still believe there is a strong likelihood Upton is traded. But if he does, I'm sure the haul will be worth the trade.

Great homestand, great attendance

raysfaninminnesota — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 14:02:37 -0000

Great homestand, great attendance

A 6-3 record in a 9 game homestand is pretty good, and so is an attendance of 275,252 in that span. That's an average of 30,583. There were a lot of reasons to show up at the park on this homestand. The Yankees. The Red Sox. 2 concerts. The next homestand will be more telling. 3 against Toronto. 3 against Baltimore. 3 against Texas. Hopefully we can average 25k during that 9 game stretch.