SB Nation User Blog: raysrule07

Pena, Hinske, Ensberg?

raysrule07 — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 18:57:40 -0000

Ensberg seems to fit the mold of the Carlos Pena and Eric Hinske signings. Career .830 OPS, .912 v. left-handers, has had a few good years, but recently a few bad ones. Could he be the guy the Rays sign to a minor league contract who resurrects his career with a big year?

Also, the Rays have 3 open spots on their 40-man roster, in addition to guys like Jason Hammel and Jae Kuk Ryu who don't have any options left and probably won't bee on the team on Opening Day, plus Jake McGee who will be placed on the 60-day DL, leaving us with 6(!) open spots on the 40-man roster for Opening Day. If we assume the Rays sign a full-time DH, then there are still 5 spots. My hope is that Andy is going to invite a lot of players (Ensberg, Rheinecker, etc.) to minor league deals with invites to ST who have a real chance to have an impact. This is especially relevant for relievers.

Could this work?

raysrule07 — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 23:32:10 -0000

HI everyone, Rays fan here. The Rays I'm sure will be trying to acquire a big right-handed bat that can play RF this offseason. There has been some debate among Rays fans as to who they could/should go after.

Personally, I'm intrigued by Joe Mather, though I don't know that much about him other than his numbers and that the Cardinals have a deep outfield at the moment. Any information you could give about his defense or how he was regarded as a prospect would be greatly appreciated.

Jayson Werth

raysrule07 — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 06:06:19 -0000

HI everyone, as you've probably guessed from my name, I'm a Rays fan. The Rays are in need of someone who can hit lefties well, preferably someone who can play RF. While my fellow Rays fans are drooling over Jason Bay or the overrated Xavier Nady, I was curious to get your perspective on some questions regarding Jayson Werth.

First, given the Phillies' powerful lineup, would Werth be available even though the Phillies are still in contention? If so, what would Gillick probably be looking for in return? Would So Taguchi or a AAA guy be sufficient to take over Werth's playing time or would they be needing someone to replace him in any trade? Any insight or ideas on Jayson Werth and possible scenarios/situations would be greatly appreciated.

Thank You in advance, and good luck with the rest of your season!

Casey Blake

raysrule07 — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 03:17:58 -0000

Hi guys, I'm a Rays fan (as the name implies), and I have some questions about Casey Blake and his situation with the Indians.

First, I noticed a post talking about Blake possibly being a Type A free agent. However, do you think it is likely that Blake would accept an offer of arbitration? He makes $6.1 million this year, and would likely make at least that much if he went to arbitration. I just can't see him getting $6.5-7 million per year on the open market.

Second, what type of return do you guys think Shapiro would be looking for for Blake? Would it be mostly a salary dump/roster space move, with a couple of low-mid level prospects, or would Shapiro try to get a really solid prospect?

Third, I don't know much about Blake other than his offensive stats. How is his defense, especially in RF? And how is he regarded as a teammate/clubhouse presence?

Thanks in advance!

Mark Teahen

raysrule07 — Sun, 13 Jan 2008 19:23:56 -0000

Hello everyone, as you can probably tell from my username, I'm a Rays fan(though I am from Kansas).

Anyways, the Rays need a player who can play 3B, 1B, and some OF, and preferably someone who hits left-handed. Mark Teahen fits this profile perfectly. I'm not very good at gauging the value of players on other teams, so I thought I'd ask you guys what you think the Royals plans are for Teahen, and what kind of value they would be looking for in return if they were to trade him, and what areas the team would be looking to address in making trades.

Thanks in advance.

Instrucional League

raysrule07 — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 04:32:35 -0000

Marc Lancaster has released the Instructional League rosters, here, http://www.tboblogs.com/index.php/sports/related/C142/

Pitchers(19)
Wade Davis, Montgomery
James Houser, Montgomery
Jacob McGee, Montgomery
Chuck Tiffany, Montgomery(DL)
Josh Butler, Vero Beach
Greg Dupas, Vero Beach
Matt Walker, Vero Beach
Jeremy Hellickson, Columbus
Will Kline, Columbus
David Price, Columbus
Alex Cobb, Hudson Valley
Kyle Ayers, Princeton
Nick Barnese, Princeton
Kevin Chavez, Princeton
Joseph Cruz, Princeton
Tyree Hayes, Princeton
Chris Luck, Princeton
Matt Moore, Princeton
Michael Southern, Princeton

Catchers(5)
Christian Lopez, Vero Beach
Nevin Ashley, Columbus
Mike McCormick, Hudson Valley
Mark Thomas, Princeton
Tomas Francisco, Dominican Summer League

Infielders(8)
Henry Wrigley, 1B, Hudson Valley
Cody Cipriano, 2B, Hudson Valley
Michael Ross, 2B, Princeton
Reid Fronk, 3B, Hudson Valley
Omar Luna, SS/3B, Hudson Valley
Shawn O'Malley, SS, Hudson Valley
Robi Estrada, SS, Princeton
JT Hall, IF, Vero Beach

Outfielders(7)
Sergio Pedroza, RF, Vero Beach
Ryan Royster, LF, Columbus
Desmond Jennings, CF, Columbus
Emeel Salem, CF, Hudson Valley
Dustin Biell, CF, Princeton
David Jones, OF, Princeton
Justin Reynolds, OF, Princeton

Special Thanks to Kevin Gengler for posting this on RaysBB.com

ProSLG

raysrule07 — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 22:28:53 -0000

For those of you who read raysbb.com(formerly raysbaseball.com), you'll notice the stat IsoSLG(or IsoP)used often to measure a player's power, especially for prospects.

IsoSLG is supposed to isolate SLG % from BA in order to more accurately depict a player's power independent from their contact abilities. However, I think it hurts players who have lower batting averages, because it implies a linear relationship between SLG and BA, when the relationship is more proportional. Take the following (fictional) example statline:

500 AB, 100 H, 20 2B, 5 3B, 15 HR, 175 TB, .200 AVG, .350 SLG, .150 IsoSLG

Now, if this same player were to have 40 more hits to raise his average to .280, using IsoSLG, you would predict that his SLG would rise the same amount, to .430. However, this is only true if all 40 additional hits the player would have hit would have been singles, adding 40 total bases. Using the percentage of each extra base hit(2B-20%, 3B-5%, HR-15%), over 40 AB's, he would have hit 24 singles, 8 doubles, 2 triples, and 6 home runs, for an increase of 70 total bases, to 245, making his SLG % .490, and his IsoSLG .210.

As you can see, the relationship between batting average and slugging percentage is proportional, not linear. I believe a more accurate representation of a players power would be a proportional number found by dividing SLG by AVG. For instance, in the example above, the player's IsoSLG for the first line was .150, and his proportional slugging(or ProSLG) was 1.750. For the second stat line, his IsoSLG was .210, and his ProSLG was 1.750, the same as the first stat line.

There are of course, flaws, such as if a player has a low BABIP, using ProSLG to predict a SLG should the BABIP return to normal levels would be inaccurate, as the number of home runs would not have increased, etc.

The 5 leaders in the D-Rays organization are as follows:

Player        Age    Level ProP    IsoP
M. Fields    22    A 1.927    .227
D. Mohr        31    AAA 1.913    .209
Q. Stewart    24    A 1.871    .229
S. Pedroza    23    A-Adv 1.861    .247
R. Royster    21    A 1.785    .255

and others of interest
E. Longoria    21 AA/AAA 1.747    .224
J. Pridie    24    AA/AAA 1.622        .184
J. Ruggiano    25    AAA 1.633    .193
R. Brignac    21    AA 1.675    .172
D. Jennings    21    A 1.476    .150
J. Jaso        24    AA 1.502    .158
R. Hughes    24    A-Adv/AA 1.559    .181
F. Perez    24    AA 1.570    .171