red army line
Mar 17, 2009 May 31, 2012 59 16915
Craig Laughlin saw three Russian Caps--Alex Ovechkin, Sergei Fedorov, and Viktor Kozlov--step onto the ice together and called them a "red army line."
website: Red Line Station: updated whenever I get a chance!
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Wild Scoring Chances (as tracked by others)
by red army line on Dec 1, 2011 11:26 PM EST
on Hockey Wilderness
You all know my stance on this whole Corsi issue. I guess time will tell. Anyway, presented here with only neutral comment (I promise), Wild scoring chances for the games played against the tracked teams (listed here, but with only the first six games for the Red Wings here, plus the Sharks here and the Stars here...some of you may want to check where that first URL is linking before clicking through).
Anyway, follow after the jump for the schedule of tracked games, including links, and the results. Home team listed second.
J.P. gets some love from Elliotte Friedman on HNIC. Head to the 4:50 mark for the segment, click here to enlarge the screen grab.
6 months ago
red army line
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The Rangers may be scary in 2014
by red army line on Aug 24, 2011 10:20 PM EDT
on Blueshirt Banter
A little background: two years ago, my greatest hope for a Capital at the upcoming Olympics was for Mike Green to make Canada and acquit himself (since I naturally favor North American squads over others, a product of my birth in DC). More recently it's become John Carlson repeating his World Junior Championship heroics from Saskatoon (two goals in the final, including the overtime winner) in Sochi. I got thinking about how many players the Capitals might be sending to Russia that winter (I don't see the players giving up the privilege of going in the next CBA) and realized that the New York Rangers may be icing more Olympians than any other team.
Anyone interested in some stat tracking?
I told BSH I'm interested in tracking zone entries. If anyone could cover when I miss a game, though, that would be nice.
I don't think the soft goals should be too difficult to keep track of. As an addendum, maybe we could track errors, regardless of whether they result in a goal against, and recap threads provide a convenient place to determine whether a certain play is a soft goal or mistake.
If we organize well, we could probably track soft goals for the entire league. On average I think we'll see around forty goals a night, and splitting up the work a little makes that amount easy to keep track of.
Do you have any other ideas?
Team-Adjusted GAETAN
by red army line on Jun 11, 2011 11:37 AM EDT
on Japers' Rink
Goal Asymmetry Experienced by Team Above Normal. Here's GAETAN in two sentences:
GAETAN tells us how many more or fewer goals a player's team scored and allowed while he was on the ice than we would have expected from an average player. To calculate GAETAN, we first determine how many goals for and goals against would have occurred while an average player played the same number of minutes as a particular player, and then we compare those numbers to the actual goals for and goals against that occurred while the particular player was on the ice.
Using Gould Old Days' method, instead of rating players against league averages, I wanted to rate players against their team averages, to correct (at least partly) for the quality of the team for which a player players on.
This method isn't a perfect adjustment for the team a player plays on--a great player on a great team may look worse than a good player on a terrible team--nor does it account for quality of competition and some other situation effects, but I feel that it's a step in the right direction, like relative plus minus as opposed to raw plus minus.
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Penguins-Lightning Head-to-Head
I compiled the series head-to-head time on ice at even strength (summing from Timeonice) and Corsi, too. My code keeps missing one or two Corsi events per game, but I don't think that should change much here.
First line is TOI, second Corsi (number of events and differential). While the differentials are from a Pens perspective (positives are good), the colors are from a Lightning perspective (red is good for Pittsburgh, green bad).
Letang-Orpik was a beast at ES.
Columbus Dispatch Wisening up to "Real-Time Stats"
They are unreliable, we all knew already, but good to see someone in the MSM taking note. (Stick tap to St. Louis Game Time for directing me to the link)
Here's a related read from Bruce McCurdy of the Copper and Blue.
Just a thought on luck, zone starts, and Corsi
So...I can understand that zone starts at a team level are an effect, not a cause, of Corsi, as it is with individual players. However... Say team X has poor shooting luck. Instead of certain shots going in, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect that those shots are stopped, resulting in another offensive zone draw, and perhaps an inflated Corsi as a result? Now say Team Y has great shooting luck. Then shots upon which we might normally expect a save, goalie freeze, and offensive zone draw, end up in the net with a neutral zone draw. Doesn't that result in perhaps a deflated Corsi than one might expect from the averages? I don't think it unreasonable to guess that a Team X (like this year's Devils, maybe) are slightly worse than Fenwick% has them, while a Team Y (like last year's Capitals) may be slightly undercredited by Fenwick%. I'm not sure how much of an effect shooting luck would have on Corsi (if at all), but I guess that might be just one more factor to consider.
Awards: Talent or Performance?
by red army line on Jan 12, 2011 1:01 PM EST
on Arctic Ice Hockey
The question is simple: should the end-of-season awards be based on "true talent," that season's "performance" and results, or a combination of the two? If the latter, how much weight should go to the lucky components of that player's performance?
I really think it depends on the award. As a bonus, I included who I'd give each award to at this point.
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All Time GVT Database
Tom Awad put together GVT for the other leagues. The link above goes to his Behind the Net article, from where his Google Doc is linked.
Pat Burns passes away
RIP, one of the greatest coaches in sports history.
There's reaction from TSN and from many hockey blogs as well. Here's PPP.
With Horcoff out of the lineup, and the Oilers already lacking depth they probably won't be able to take advantage to the same degree, but I certainly hope Tom Renney decides to use Ales Hemsky and Dustin Penner on different lines. At least one of them will be exposed to some pretty green (and bad) defenders, and should be able to take advantage. But if they're playing together, the Staal-Girardi combination will be all over them.
And guess what? Those two are very good. Staal is surprisingly good, not in the sense that I didn't know his numbers were fabulous, but in the sense that he just doesn't look all that great when you watch him. Staal isn't particularly fast, but he's fast enough that most players can't beat him wide and get to the net. He's a physically huge, but he's still big, and he plays an effective physical style that sees him staying in position and delivering hits whenever he can do it without losing position. He's also got a very good stick, and he seems like a competent passer as well. The offense isn't there the way it is for guys like Drew Doughty and Duncan Keith, but defensively, the guy is an absolute gem, and pretty much exactly the kind of player the Oilers need to stabilize their defense. Sadly, something tells me that New York's very best defenseman isn't on the market.
Scott Reynolds of the Copper and Blue, scouting the Rangers
EA Sports is far from the be-all-end-all of trade fairness, but this is freaking hilarious. Wheeler on Japers' Rink gets full credit for trying the trade and posting the image.
ESPN to bid on NHL TV rights?
via From the Rink via Puck the Media. I hope they get the rights, but not if it means pushing out Versus. I've really grown fond of little old OLN.
Potential Hemsky Trade?
Apologies if the Fanshots are the wrong place for this. Looking at the Capitals' roster, the second line is quite weak. Aside from Alexander Semin, no one who plays on that line with any regularity can control the puck and drive the play with any consistency. Ideally, the Capitals trade for a good center and move W-turned-C Tomas Fleischmann back on the left, but with seemingly only one good center potentially available for trade (Brad Richards), maybe the best strategy is to add a wing. Given posts here at Copper and Blue about ES Points% and other Corsi measures, Ales Hemsky looks like a really good player for the Capitals to chase. I have three questions: 1) Is there any realistic possibility Ales Hemsky gets traded this season? 2) If yes, along what lines would the asking price be? 3) Would the Oilers be interested in a trade package from the Capitals not involving Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin, Fehr, Laich, Chimera, Johansson, Green, Schultz, Poti, Carlson, Alzner, Varlamov, Neuvirth, or multiple first round picks?
Roy Macgregor hates Corsi
Everything after the title is wrong, if you ask me. This is what happens when you don't read Behind the Net and Irreverent Oilers Fans.
Scoring Chances?
by red army line on Oct 12, 2010 4:46 PM EDT
on Canes Country
(Wow, it's been a long time since I've written a FanPost...)
Last year, fans kept track of "scoring chances" for and against for the Canadian teams and the Wild, in every game. With so much potentially hinging on having a better understanding about how players play defense--at this point, defense is more-or-less a team statistic--other fanbases have started tracking scoring chances for this season. George E. Ays on Blueshirt Banter has taken up the Rangers, Derek Zona has adopted the Panthers, Knee high to a duck and myself the Capitals, and so on. I was wondering if any of you would be interested in keeping track of "scoring chances" for the Hurricanes.
The "scoring chances" numbers you see on TV are based upon, by my understanding, a pretty strict definition (I think you even have to get a shot on goal, so posts don't count, though I could be wrong). Counting scoring chances is subjective, and we need actual people who understand what they're counting to help keep track. It's really a fun exercise and hopefully at the end of the year we can compare across teams.
Counting chances is really quite simply. Just get a notebook and a pen and sit in front of your TV, then each time either the Canes or the opponent get some sort of play that makes you excited or anxious (that someone may score), jot down the time remaining in the period and which team got that chance. The focus should be on shots from the "home plate" area, goal posts to faceoff dots to tops of the circles and across the slot. You don't have to exactly follow these rules, or you'd just be the unofficial scoring chance counts that broadcasts display. Nor do you have to be a stats guru like Hawerchuk or JLikens.
When you're finished, go to Vic Ferrari's scoring chances tool at timeonice. Choose Carolina as the primary team. For "Game number," head to the game preview or recap on NHL.com--somewhere in the website URL, you'll see a string of ten digits. The Game number is the final five digits(normally starting with 2). Then just enter the scoring chance data you have--which team, period, time remaining, and any notes you may have (I note goals). It's a little tedious, but when you're done and click "Submit Query," you get this nice chart with what scoring chances you had, who was on the ice, and how individuals did with regards to chances.
You probably want to save the url of this page (it can exceed 3500 characters, so bit.ly or tinyurl is helpful here) and/or save the page to your computer. Periodically then you can take a look to actually see, for example, if Tim Gleason has been playing good defense over the past week (keeping in mind zonestart, quality of competition, etc).
Apologies if some of you already do this. I realize that the season is already a few games old, but skipping a few games is not too big of a deal, and I'm sure some of you have access to Gamecenter archives or the missed games on DVR. Counting scoring chances is really fun exercise for the more statistically-inclined of you [looks at C-Leaguer]. I highly recommend it. Even if you can't catch every game, a few people keeping count means we get data from most of the games, and our hockey knowledge base will be richer as a result.
Premium Scouting: Rangers
This is coming in late, but I didn't see it linked previously elsewhere.
Creating Easton composite hockey sticks...stick tap to our favorite Frozen Blog
OT Hockey 5/22/10
All times EST:
Ted Leonsis says the NHL is in better financial shape than the NBA because NHL owners can no longer take "stupid pills."
The owner of the Washington Capitals -- who is completing a purchase of the Washington Wizards -- said Friday that a lot of NBA teams are losing "a lot of money."
Speaking at the National Press Club, Leonsis said the NHL is in a better position because it has a hard salary cap "that protects owners from taking stupid pills" -- a reference to misguided, over-the-top free agent signings.
Leonsis learned his lesson with the Capitals several years ago when he overspent for Jaromir Jagr and other players before the NHL put its cap in place.
A brief Canadian Press story via TSN
The Sporting News seems to be jumping on the bandwagon
The Statistics Revolution in Hockey (and Ted's Money)
by red army line on Apr 24, 2010 2:28 PM EDT
on Japers' Rink
Statistics is no doubt an important field in sports nowadays. Baseball probably got the head start, as almost every situation can be individualized, but now increasingly in hockey too, we're trying to objectify the game, via statistics. Gabriel Desjardins, for example, runs Behind the Net (blog, stats), a must read. Puck Prospectus also does some good work with statistics, identifying interesting trends.
Gone are the days when goals, assists, and points were the only statistics. Now, not only do we have +/-, shots, faceoffs, and much more via the NHL stats engine, but single game and season Corsi and Fenwick numbers among others.
But how much can we read into statistics?
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Pittsburgh Penguins forward Alexei Ponikarovsky has been suspended for the final two games of the regular season for a hit from behind Thursday against the New York Islanders.
Early in the third period, Islander center Josh Bailey turned to play a puck in the Pittsburgh end. Ponikarovsky came directly from behind on Bailey and cross-checked him into the boards.
Ponikarovsky was given a major for boarding and a game misconduct. Bailey was able to skate off under his own power, but did not return. Earlier in the game, he scored his 16th goal of the season.
Under the terms of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, and based on his average annual salary, Ponikarovsky will forfeit $21,813.48. The money goes to the Players’ Emergency Assistance Fund.
Ponikarovsky will miss Saturday's game at Atlanta and Sunday's game at the Islanders.
5. Mario Lemieux
In 1993, the Penguins were two-time defending Stanley Cup champions, thanks largely to the play of their superstar center, Lemieux. That January, he was on pace to challenge Wayne Gretzky's season record of 215 points when he announced he'd been diagnosed with Hodgkin's disease. He left the team for two months to undergo radiation treatment. When Lemieux returned to the ice on March 2 -- the same day he received his last radiation treatment -- he posted a goal and assist against the Flyers, and Philadelphia fans gave him a standing ovation.34. Mario Lemieux
Super Mario led the league with 122 points in 1996-97, but injuries (particularly to his back) caused him to retire after the season. With that, the NHL lost one of its marquee players. After three seasons off the ice -- during which time he became a partial owner of the Penguins -- Lemieux laced up his skates again in 2000 at age 35. In his first season back, the Pens made it all the way to the conference finals. It was the franchise's best finish since winning consecutive Stanley Cups in 1991 and '92.
5 Reasons I Love Hockey
by red army line on Mar 31, 2010 4:47 PM EDT
on Pension Plan Puppets
When I was younger I used to be a basketball fanatic. On vacation in India, I'd wake up at 4 in the morning to watch the NBA playoffs. I began my conversion one day in 2001, when I flipped on the TV to Joe Sakic putting out the New Jersey Devils. From then on, whenever it didn't conflict with the NBA, I watched the Stanley Cup Finals. And, slowly but surely, I moved away from basketball to the best sport to watch on Earth. On to the 5 reasons...
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Scott Walker is a little homesick
Stick-tap to Canes Country member caniacgirl for the pointer.
Both times, a Washington defenseman screened goaltender Semyon Varlamov while attempting to clear a Stars forward from the crease.
Tarik's story on the penalty kill (emphasis added). Still want a "crease-clearing defenseman" ?
Where Carlson and Alzner stack up
by red army line on Mar 6, 2010 9:51 AM EST
on Japers' Rink
John Carlson and Karl Alzner get a lot of love around here, and rightfully so. But where do they stack up against other young defensemen around the league? I'm sure I missed some defensemen, so feel free to tell me who to add in the comments. I wanted to stick to those who are still "prospects" or still very young.
The stats I looked at are plus/minus per 60 minutes differential, goals-versus-threshold, and Corsi. Stats via Behind The Net.
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