SB Nation User Blog: redbirdnation8206

Jim Rice Must Be Friends with Al

redbirdnation8206 — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 01:00:15 -0000

Jim Rice Must Be Friends with Al

Jim Rice, who got into the Hall of Fame on the last possible ballot, apparently thinks baggy uniforms and dreadlocks are ruining young people everywhere.* He must be Al Hrabosky's buddy.

*semi-exaggeration

Per Roto, Wellemeyer to get his starting gig back

redbirdnation8206 — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 01:11:25 -0000

Per Roto, Wellemeyer to get his starting gig back

According to Duncan, "You look at what the options are and what’s involved in the options, he’s the best guy to take the start." Yeesh, Dave/TLR/Mozeliak/Easter Bunny. Okay, I know, Boggs has been nothing but wild-as-sin as a major league pitcher. His BB rate has been over five as a ML-er. BUT...You KNOW Todd Wellemeyer is also wild, AND is also a HR machine, AND has an expiring contract. Why not send Boggs out there to finish off the season and leave Wellemeyer in the pen? Boggs may pitch better than Wellemeyer, and even if he doesn't the FO isn't left hemming and hawing over whether or not any youngsters can be ML starters in 2010. This logic makes me sick...

/end rant.

Thoughts on Baseball and Outsiders

redbirdnation8206 — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 17:17:04 -0000

I enjoy Bill Simmons. I don't feel I have to apologize...I think the guy was remarkably fresh when his columns first popped up, and I still enjoy his point of view, even if I disagree with his insane love of the NBA and his extreme Boston homerism. Anyway, with that out of the way, I was reading through his archive and came across this wonderful bit that really spoke to me. I thought I would share it with the community...

What I came across an exchange he had with writer Malcolm Gladwell about a variety of topics. (LINKY HERE TO THE RELEVENT SECTION) Gladwell has what seems to me a brilliant bit of writing in this exhange about why he would make a better GM than Isiah Thomas...it's because he actually knows LESS, and therefore would make painfully obvious moves and not outsmart himself. He says it much prettier than I, because he's a bajillion times smarter. This got the old wheels-a-turnin' in my head.

I find this idea wonderfully applicable to baseball too. Moneyball, which Billy Beane wrote to prove how smart he was (or not), deals a lot with the cloistered old boys club that Lewis saw in baseball, and how certain ideas that seem stale and tired at best and patently crazy at worst, at least to those who stop and think from an objective P.O.V., are or were considered conventional wisdom within baseball. Examples:

The strong chin
Guys with physical tools make the best players, even if those tools never seem to translate to performance
How teamwork and toughness and grit and fortitude overwhelms talent

I am sure that we can all think of many such examples we have encountered in our lives of baseball fandom. As Baseball got smarter, it started to challenge these ideas and look at baseball in new and interesting ways. To me, it is no surprise that some of the most dynamic, intelligent, and influential people within both Baseball and baseball analysis did not come from baseball backgrounds. Bill James was a student of literature who loved to write and think, and first began doing so as a security guard at a pork-and-beans factory. Keith Law, who is a bit prickly in my mind but has an exceedingly sharp baseball mind, holds undergraduate degrees from Harvard (sociology and econ.) and is a Carnegie Mellon MBA. Paul De Podesta, who I think got a raw deal in LA no thanks to Bill "I AM the idiot" Plaschke, was a college athlete at Harvard but also got a degree from there in economics. Theo Epstein studied American (American studies degree from Yale) and is a J.D.

My point is this, and this ties back into what Gladwell was saying in his exchange with Mr. Simmons, is that sometimes a fresh, outside perspective is what is necessary. In Gladwell's hypothetical GM of the Knicks scenario, he would use something of a KISS approach and make seemingly obvious decisions based on not-overthinking things. In baseball's case, some of the most successful writers and franchises of recent years have been successful largely because of an outside perspective, because they let a smart person run things and said smart person was not corrupted by Baseball's collective conventional wisdom. I am not one of those who finds that The Old Baseball Man and the Steely-Eyed/Copenhagen-chewing scout do not have a place in the game...their understanding of the minutae of actually playing the game is key and the collaboration of smart outsiders and experienced insiders can create a perfect storm of baseball awesome...however this is no prerequisite. I reference you all to lboros's post from 2007 regarding the concept of Moneyball 2.0. The teams may not be great, but the sentiment of drawing from both scouting and intellectual perspectives is.

To conclude, I think this thought has some connection to our very own Cardinals and their endlessly comment-provoking manager Tony La Russa. La Russa is someone who can be viewed as either conventional or radical, or perhaps even both simultaneously. He is the man who hits his pitcher 8th regularly, who designed the modern bullpen as much as anyone could have (whether this is a good thing or not, I leave for another discussion), who juggles his lineups like a madman in pursuit of 9 perfect matchups, and so on. He is also the man who refuses to hit Albert anywhere but second, who seems to have an affinity for known mediocrities over unproven talent (see the playing time handed to Miguel Cairo and Mike Gallego, for no apparent reason), the man who at times is prickly and unkind to anyone who dares broach the subject of advanced sabermetric analysis, and so on. Many of his decisions leave us scratching our heads (cough13 man pencough). To me he is a wonderfully thought-provoking character, and for the most part a very good manager. I think within the person of Tony La Russa we see both a man willing to try anything and a man unwilling to try anything. At any rate, he is ceaselessly interesting to those who love baseball and love the Cardinals.

Joe Posnanski on Royals and Goofiness

redbirdnation8206 — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 01:33:05 -0000

Joe Posnanski on Royals and Goofiness

Joe Posnanski on the odd things he's seen covering the Royals. I saw this a few days back and thought I'd post it in honor of the Cards/Royals series this weekend. Anyone up for kidnapping Joe and making him write about the Cardinals?

Al Hrabosky, meet Facts

redbirdnation8206 — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 03:55:43 -0000

Al Hrabosky, meet Facts

Al Hrabosky spent the first few innings of this past game blathering about how A.D.A.M.'s velo is down and that he's overusing his slider, which he calls a cutter. That's not really a big deal, I think either way we know he's throwing a horizontally-breaking pitch. I digress.

However, as is so often the case Al said these things without any basis in data. According to his FanGraphs page, Waino's average fastball has been HARDER this year than last and he's used his slider less. Do announcers know this stuff is available? Or do they think that makes them basement-dwelling nerds?

Pete Rose Backs A-Rod...But Can't Be Anymore Wrong

redbirdnation8206 — Thu, 14 May 2009 19:03:11 -0000

Pete Rose Backs A-Rod...But Can't Be Anymore Wrong

Pete Rose, aka the all-time leader in hits, seems to think A-Rod is a Hall of Famer. So far, so good...

However, he also believes steroid use is worse than gambling on baseball. Let's just say I disagree and leave it at that. Rose had all that goodwill towards him after that whole Jim Gray thing, and has spent every second since that time pissing it away by stuffing his foot in his mouth.

Jason Motte, Meet Grant Balfour

redbirdnation8206 — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 22:35:34 -0000

I think all Cardinals fans can say that they were excited by Jason Motte's debut last season with the Birds on Bat. It is not every day that you see such raw cheese being tossed by a pitcher, let alone one that suits up for Dave Duncan's Pitch to Contact Army. He and Chris Perez look like they could be a two-headed relief monster for years. However, the biggest knock on Mr. Motte has always been the fact that he really only throws one pitch: that upper-90's fastball.

While watching the Rays dramatic rise through the playoffs, one figure in their bullpen really caught my eye: Grant Balfour. Balfour is sort of a wiry bloke from the Land Down-Under (I wonder if that is his warm up song? Maybe it should be!) who has the arm that allows him to throw a strawberry through a freight train and the brain that makes him try to do it on every single pitch. Fun guy to watch, for sure.

I know I can't be the only person who saw similarities between these two...so let's take a look...

How did these guys get here?

Grant Balfour made his major league debut in 2001 with the Twins. His 2.2 innings there did not go well, recording as many bombs as K's (2 of each). He popped back in with the Twins for 26 innings in '03 and 39.1 more in '04. He walked a lot of guys (35), but also struck out a bunch too (72). He wasn't terrible, but I'm sure his propensity to walk guys drove managers nuts and made it difficult to toss him out there in relief appearances with much confidence. He then got hurt, played in the Reds and Brewers organizations, and continued his anti-Sonnanstine ways by walking and K'ing a whole bunch of hitters. He reappeared in majors with the Brewers in 2007 after shredding AAA (a 2.11 FIP and 4.27 K/BB ratio), but was DFA'd and traded to Tampa Bay for Seth McClung that same season. His overall 2007 didn't seem much different from the rest of his career...lots of K's, lots of walks. Once again, his FIP wasn't bad, but when you walk a bunch of dudes it's kind of hard to put you into the game as a reliever. Let's just say that the nickname "Ball-Four" Balfour fit.

I think we all know how his 2008 season went, however. He was simply brilliant. Glancing at his numbers, the biggest key to his success was a dramatic decrease in his walks. He was still walking 3.7 hitters/9, however that was a massive improvement for him compared to his career major league numbers. His K/BB ratio was 3.42 and he posted a 2.22 FIP to go witih a nifty 1.54 ERA. His K numbers were astounding, as they'd always been, recording 82 K's in 58.1 innings pitched. His playoff performance wasn't great, as he walked 8 guys in 8.2 innings and gave up 2 home runs. However, his brilliance during the season was a big part of the Rays success. If he maintains low walk-rates, he should expect to be a pretty solid set-up guy and spot-closer from here on out.

Motte's story is better known around these parts, so I'll be more brief (insert sounds of readers applauding). Basically he didn't hit much as a catcher, so they converted his live arm to the mound and it's been pretty successful to this point. He's shown okay-to-very good control and a live fastball in the upper-90's. A slider became his second pitch, but wasn't much of one. As our very own azruavatar noted on July 21st, it doesn't move too terribly much horizontally. He made his major league debut on September 3rd against Arizona and compiled an 0.82 ERA and 1.04 FIP over 11 innings. His K/BB numbers were 16/3.

Are they really that similar?

The first question in any comparison is this question: are you comparing apples to apples, apples to some other kind of fruit, like a pomegranate or something? To answer this, I looked at fangraph's pitch-type data for both Balfour and Motte. There is a caveat that Balfour's data is based on a small sample of his total pitches, but I can't imagine that his pitching style is all that different over the course of a season. Here are the links, as I am quite dumb and can't seem to make a functional table:

Balfour

Motte

As you can see, they both throw a ton of fastballs. Balfour uses his at a slightly higher percentage (91.3 percent compared to 89.4), but for all intents and purposes they are basically fastball specialists. Motte's is harder at 96.6 mph on average, compared to 94.6 for Balfour. Motte also uses his main secondary pitch, a slider, at a higher percentage than Balfour does. Both use a third pitch (splitter for Motte and deuce for Balfour) sparingly. Also, given that neither's secondary offering is particularly good, it is fair to say that these guys are pretty similar pitchers. Both are apples, and neither is a pomegranate.

Where do these guys go from here?

Balfour is an interesting case. The BB rates he posted last year were the best of his Major League career by quite a bit, although he posted similar rates in the minors in 2007. He was also a bit lucky in the BABIP category, but unlucky in 2007, which may have also hurt his cause that season. This is his BABIP graph if anyone is curious. I think from a development standpoint, the almost-31 year old Aussie is pretty much what he's going to be at this point. The guy throws chedd, but also has a nasty history of walking people and other command issues. If he should revert back to that dude, then it could get ugly again. He's a one-pitch guy, and if that one pitch should elude him than he's up a certain creek. However, that is one pretty good pitch. Teams had to know that was what he was coming with, and yet no one could do much about it this season.

Motte seems to be the same pitcher as Balfour at this point. He's developed into what Balfour is, if that makes any sense at all. He basically has two options from this point on: stick to that one pitch with a show-me slider and improve the command of that electic fastball, or develop that slider more. He throws the slider very hard (88 according to FanGraphs' data), so that counts for something. However, it's a pretty straight pitch. That won't work so well as a true-second offering. If that pitch develops into a viable second-pitch, however, than Motte should be a pretty tough guy to hit. If not, then he'll be like Balfour is now...totally reliant on his ability to command his overpowering fastball.

Sources

Here are these two flamethrowers' profiles at fangraphs.com. That is a great resource, and if you haven't checked it out (which I doubt for most VEB members) it is a true treasure-chest of data.

Jason Motte

Grant Balfour

I was also a bit unsure of some of the background info on Balfour, so I went to the source of all that is true and verified and peer-reviewed...Wikipedia. I just failed in life and should return my history degree as of 26 minutes ago, the exact point at which most people probably bailed on this behemoth of a post.

More Evidence that I'm Glad TLR is Here

redbirdnation8206 — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 18:15:01 -0000

More Evidence that I'm Glad TLR is Here

Jerry Manuel may be the strangest person in all of baseball, and now he strikes again. I have problems with Tony La Russa as a manager...but he's not this guy.

R.I.P. George Kissell, 1920-2008

redbirdnation8206 — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 15:31:10 -0000

Today, Cardinal Nation lost one of its icons. George Kissell, a man known as "The Professor," died this morning in Florida as a result of an automobile accident. Kissell, 88, dedicated his life to the Cardinals, spending nearly seven decades wearing the Birds on Bat. He appeared at spring training 68 of the past 69 years, teaching and inspiring countless Redbirds along the way. In his article over this topic, Derrick Goold notes that Kissell was forced to cut back on his role over the past few years due to his wife's health problems, however he still made his appearances, working with young players on various aspects of the game.

Some other Kissell tidbits:

He was on Tony La Russa's staff for the 2005 All-Star Game in Detroit.
He won the King of Baseball Award in 1993 for his contributions to minor league baseball.
He is commemorated with a plaque in Jupiter, which was unveiled in 2005.
He was a mentor to Sparky Anderson, Tony La Russa, and Joe Torre, men with thousands of combined wins and more than a handful of World Series rings.
He is credited with turning Ken Boyer into an MVP award-winning 3rd baseman

The list goes on and on...I don't have the time, nor does anyone, to fully list what this man has meant to the St. Louis Cardinals organization.

Kissell's passing is a great tragedy, one that I am sure will be covered more eloquently by others in the coming days, probably on this very blog. However, as a lifelong Cardinals fan, I feel greatly saddened by this loss and felt I had to express my sadness to a group of people who would understand.

R.I.P. George Kissell...you will be missed by this fan of 33 years.

Sources: Derrick Goold, The AP

Post Season Awards, AL Version

redbirdnation8206 — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 15:00:44 -0000

About a week and a half ago, I made a post regarding the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year Awards for the Senior Circuit. A decent number of people responded, so I thought an AL version may be a good idea. I went ahead and named two in each category: a should win, as in who really deserves the award, and a will win, as in who the writers are most likely to pick. Once again, if you feel I am a contemptible moron, please feel free to say so!

Oh, here is the NL version if you're curious.

MVP: Alex Rodriguez (should win), Dustin Pedroia (will win)

This choice may seem a hair out of left field. But just look at the numbers. A-Rod is having a remarkable silent, yet monsterously beast-ish season. His slash line clicks in at .304/.393/.584, with 34 home runs, good enough for second in the AL. He leads the AL in slugging percentage, and is second in OPS. He also leads the AL in VORP and is second is EQA. Now, the man ahead of him in many of these categories is Milton Bradley, who is overshadowed a bit by his more famous teammate Josh Hamiltion and plays on a team that was out of the race the second they broke camp with this abomination of a pitching staff. Bradley has been the best hitter, however he's also a DH. In my mind, a player who plays reasonably well at a position and mashes is more valuable then a guy who mashes a bit better but sits on his can for most of the game. Therefore, my choice is A-Rod. Of course, he has no prayer b/c he is so unclutch and therefore sent Joba and Wang to the DL and made Hughes and Kennedy ineffective and made Captain Clutch have a bad year and made Posada get hurt and made Cano stink up the joint and so on and so forth...

One other guy needs to be discussed here: Carlos Quentin. I think he would be right in the middle of the discussion, in terms of both who should win and who will win. The guy was in the middle of a very very good year. He still leads the AL in yacks, despite having not played since September 1st. He's fourth in OBP, third in OPS, and third in EQA. I think I still would have gone w/ A-Rod over Quentin, but Quentin has ben trule wonderful this season and deserves mention here.

Now, who will win? It seems that Pedroia has become the chic pick. He's had a tremendous season to be sure. He's the batting champion at this point, a stat that writers seem to like. He's also very high in OBP and has the second highest OPS amongst all second basemen. He's also a solid fielder, clicking in fourth in RZR with 33 OOZ plays. Plus, he played very well in during Papi's injury and the Manny drama. Do I think he should win? Uhh...no. He's not even been the best hitter at his position...But, alas, I'm not the one voting. I think Pedroia's fortitude or scrappiness or whatever will get him there with the writers.

Cy Young: Cliff Lee (both)

Lee gets a lot of pub for his high win total and high win percentage. I think that wins are almost completely meaningless as a measure of a pitcher's value, but in his case things are a hair different. His team is not particularly good, and yet he's having a brilliant season win-wise. He's also not just the benefactor of good play behind him or anything like that. He's got the lowest FIP in the AL, clocking in at 2.78, a very impressive figure considering that he has to face DH's instead of pitchers and whatnot. He's second in the AL in BB/9, has a K/BB ratio of 5.61. This guy is having a hell of a year, and may very well win Comeback Player of the Year too. He's a deserving choice...I worry that K-Rod will get more votes then he deserves b/c of his record-setting year, but I have faith that the voters will make the right choice this year.

Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria (both)

Now, you all are probably sitting out there saying "but wait, redbirdnation8206, you wouldn't pick Quentin, and he was out for a really long time, so why are you picking a guy who hasn't played the whole season with his team? You're a contemptable hypocrite!!!" I would say...well, it's not really the same. Fewer rookies play well enough to deserve the award then do non-rookies going for the MVP award, if that makes any sense. Longoria has an EQA of .311, plays a very good third base, has 22 bombs, has arguably been the best hitter on one of the best teams in the league, is second amongst all rookie position players in VORP, and his name is very similar to this person, of whom you may have heard. What more needs to be said? He's also "carried," whatever that means, baseball's new darling little franchise, the Rays, who as you all may have heard, did battle with the evil Dr. Stat. Anyway, I think the writers don't seem to know of any other rookies in the American League. I'm really exaggerating here, but I think that they'll recognize Longoria's great contributions to his team, as well as the great partial year he's had and how that partial year is still more valuable than what his rookie peers have done. In other words, I think he'll win.

Damn, that was a lot of words to say that Longoria should and will win.