SB Nation User Blog: rencito

All Metrodome Team

rencito — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 01:32:39 -0000

First, if this post was already done by someone, I apologize. I've been rather AWOL lately due to some life changes (all good ones) and haven't had much time to read or post things.

Secondly, I realize this is rather gimmicky but figure it is worth talking about.

So here are my selections for all Metrodome team:

1st Base: Kent Hrbek

Hrbie beats out Morneau based on the fact that he is a Bloomington native and played large parts in bringing us two world championships. Morneau will probably end up with better statistics and more hardware, but not sure that hardware will include two World Series rings. Besides that, Hrbek played in the Dome for 13 seasons to Morneau's 7.

2nd Base: Chuck Knoblauch

I don't really get some fans animosity towards Knoblauch. He was a pretty good player and integral part of the 1991 championship team. He has never said anything bad (that I'm aware of) about the Twins organization. I don't really blame him for requesting a trade at the time he did; not to mention no one seemed to really care until the Twins were good again four years later. Even if you don't agree with me on that count, the trade to the Yankees is still paying dividends. Among others, we got Eric Milton and Christian Guzman out of the deal. We then traded Milton for Silva and Punto. While none of these turned out to be great players (Milton did throw a no-hitter though) they have still been useful players. Steve Lombardozzi gets honorable mention on the name alone.

3rd Base: Gary Gaetti

Do I really need to argue his case against Corey Koskie, Scott Leius, Mike Pagliarulo, and Nick Punto? Actually, one could perhaps make a case for Koskie. He had a better OPS than The Rat, but the G-Man was also a better defensive player.

Shortstop: Greg Gagne

Nope, not the AWA wrestler (BTW...am I the only one that watches the replays on ESPN Classic?). Gagne wins more by default here. First, we really haven't had a standout SS in the Metrodome. Secondly, the ones we have had didn't have the tenure of Gagne. Gagne was the quintessential defense first shortstop for his era.

Catcher: Joe Mauer

A two time AL batting champion who has lived up to his #1 overall draft spot and homegrown Saint Paulite. Harper, Laudner, nor Pierzynski stood a chance. BTW...I have the same questions for the Pierzynski haters out there that I did with Knoblauch. Sure, he may be a protagonist, but so what? He did well while he was here and we got great trade value for him.

Outfield: Kirby Puckett, Torii Hunter, and Dan Gladden

Puckett and Hunter need no explanation. Gladden was a tough one for me. Matt Lawton, Shane Mack, Jason Kubel, and Jacque Jones all had their moments, but that was about it. Kubel could turn out to be the best of the bunch, but not quite yet. Plus, he should have been in the DH category. I was very tempted to go with Brunansky here, because I always liked him when I was kid. Marty Cordova never lived up to his rookie year (plus one of my girlfriends cheated on me with him--true story, so there is a personal bias there, although it was truly a big favor he did for me). Cuddyer had one good year. Randy Bush was always a 4th outfielder. He had some great moments and was a good pinch hitter. I went with Gladden and his mullet mainly because when I think of the Dome, I think of the two World Series that we won while he was on the team.

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz

Somehow, the steroid era (meaning the gaudy offensive numbers, not the positive tests) missed the entire organization. We haven't had much power since Puckett and Hrbek retired. Ortiz probably wins more on his reputation as a whole. I really liked Chili Davis, but he was only here two years. Molitor and Winfield were really only here for a cup of coffee, really. Even though they did get to huge career milestones while here. Roy Smalley could be an intriguing argument here, but i'm going with Ortiz.

Starting Pitcher: Johan Santana, Frank Viola, Kevin Tapani

Santana will surely get no arguments, and Viola little. Tapani will probably be the most controversial. This one was a true toss-up for me. I very easily could have gone with Radke. Their stats are very similar and Radke probably should be rewarded for his loyalty. But I'm giving my vote to Tapani. In any event, you can vote 25 times for the all Metrodome team so I can almost split their votes down the middle.

Relief Pitcher: Rick Aguilera and Joe Nathan

Aguilera was very good and even came back after we traded him away to Boston for their postseason run in 1995. Nathan has been nothing short of dominant from day one with the Twins. I'm too lazy to check right now, but does anyone have more saves than Nathan since 2004? Off the top of my head, maybe Rivera, Hoffman, K-Rod, or Wagner? Those are just guesses. Someone should fact check me on that one. Guardado get honorable mention, but really he was never in the same class as Aguilera and Nathan. Reardon was only around for three years, and Berenguer was most known for the Berenguer Boogie.

Manager: Tom Kelly

Gardenhire certainly has the better managerial record, but still not even a World Series appearance. TK got us there twice and won them both. Not only that, but he handed off the team to Gardenhire in a position to win after finishing 85-77 and in 2nd place in 2001--the same record as his first full year managing the club in 1987 and first World Series.

What do you guys think? Any vehement objections?

Gophers Baseball Cracks Top 25 After Taking A Pair From TCU

rencito — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 03:50:09 -0000

I need to get a sweater like #57. This was your 1956 National Champion Gophers squad. This really isn't relevant, but I like the picture.

After a successful weekend in Fort Worth, winning two of three from a nationally ranked team, the Gophers (10-4) have found themselves among the top 25 teams in the country according to Baseball America. We are the only team above the Mason-Dixon line in this top 25. I mention this because southern schools dominate college baseball largely because they can play year round, and thus have better facilities. The Gophers do have the advantage of having the Metrodome (at least there is one baseball team that likes having it around!), which allows them to play home games in February. The three game set against TCU marked the beginning of an eleven game road trip, including eight in Texas, culminating with the opening of the Big 10 season in Bloomington, Indiana, over the weekend without any off days.

The Golden Gophers were actually quite fortunate to come out on top in the first game on Saturday. They hung on to win 6-4 behind a three-run eighth inning despite giving the Horned Frogs every chance to win the game. After jumping out to an early three run lead, the Gophers got sloppy in the field. A passed ball in the third inning later allowed a run to score from third on a sacrifice fly to trim the lead to 3-1. In the fourth inning, TCU was able to tie up the game thanks to two Gophers errors. Yet another error in the fifth led to TCU's first lead, putting them up 4-3. All things considered, the Gophers actually did well to only be down one with runners getting on base with regularity. A Kyle Knudson double scored two in the top of the 8^th and Knudson later scored as well on a Nick O'Shea single. The Gophers then found themselves in trouble again in the bottom of the ninth when Cullen Sexton walked the bases loaded while only retiring one; Cullen had previously pitched two scoreless innings while striking out four. Scott Matyas came in to get the final two outs and record his first save of the season.

Game two on Sunday was practically over before it began. The Gophers scored seven runs in the first inning. TCU starting pitcher Sean Hoelscher was the benefactor of two of walks, three hits, a wild pitch, a hit batter, and a botched pickoff attempt--all in one-third of an inning. If there was a golden sombrero for pitching, that might be it. After Hoelscher was relieved, Gophers shortstop and number nine hitter AJ Petterson broke it open with a two-run triple. Petterson later scored and the Gophers never looked back en route to a 7-2 victory. Starting pitcher Tom Buske went 6.1 strong innings yielding four hits, two walks, while fanning seven, and allowing just one earned run. Scott Fern pitched the final 2.2 innings while striking out 3 giving the Gophers ten k's on the day.

Monday night's final game of the series looked to be the beginning of a sweep in the early going. TCU starting freshman pitcher Kyle Winkler started off the game by hitting DH Matt Nohelty who soon stole second. However, the freshman hurler caught Nohelty too far off second and picked him off. The Gophers then followed with a walk and single to put runners on first and second with one out. Right fielder Michael Kvasnicka delivered another single, but 3B Kyle Geason was thrown out at the plate-the second runner making an out on the bases in the inning. After the Gophers failed to score in the first, 1B Nick O'Shea belted a solo homerun in the second to give the Gophers a 1-0 lead. The Horned Frogs responded in the third with a pair of runs and gained a lead they would never relinquish. The game stayed tight with TCU adding two-out runs in both the 7^th and 8^th innings. The story of the game had to be the freshman on the mound for TCU. After a rough first two innings Winkler settled down and allowed just one run on six hits and three walks over eight innings while striking out ten. Other than homer by O'Shea, Derek McCallum was the lone bright spot offensively for the Gophers going 3-3 with a walk.

Up next for the Gophers is two games with Texas-Arlington and three against Dallas Baptist before a three game set in Bloomington.

Fear the Gopher!!!

rencito — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 23:41:03 -0000

Yes, our mascot, Goldy, is awesome. Remember the movie Caddyshack?

Sorry, got to root for the Gophers. U of M undergrad, starting at the McCombs School though this fall for my MBA. At least if the Gophers lose, I can still root for UT over Duke.

Here is what you need to know about MN:

1.) Great coach. Unless you are from Kentucky (which also means winning a national championship gets you very little in terms of job security) you can't argue against him being a great coach. He has had success every where he has been. Remember when Tulsa and Georgia were actually relevant in basketball for a few years? Yeah, Tubby was at both of those schools, too.

2.) Great Defense. All of our players will play defense all the time. Damian Johnson is probably the best defender in the Big 10. Ralph Sampson III is also a tremendous shot blocker. Al Nolen started off the year as a great player on both ends of the floor. Nolen absolutely shredded Louisville. Of late, he has not been good offensively, but still very good defensively. Teams struggle against Minnesota's press. Unfortunately, we just don't do it enough.

3.) Depth. Much of the season, Tubby Smith has employed mass substitutions, often subbing in 3-5 players at a time. Our 6-9 guys are interchangeable and provide sparks off the bench. Two of our better bench players, Devron Bostick and Paul Carter were two of the highest touted JUCO transfers in the country. There just aren't enough minutes to go around, but they are starting to get more.

4.) Streaky. We have had an up and down season. We have very good wins against Louisville, Ohio State, Illinois, Wisconsin (twice). All of those teams are in the tournament. We have no bad losses, so we usually keep it close. Our worst game of the year by far was in East Lansing against Michigan State. That was an abberation.

In addition to being streaky win-loss wise, we have had a story of two halves of the season in respect to shooting as well. We actually set an NCAA record earlier in the year by going 9-9 from 3 point land against Penn State. Since that time, we haven't been good at all from behind the arc.

5.) Youth. We only have two seniors and they don't have big roles. As a result, we can seemingly lack on the floor leadership at times. This can be good or bad. On one hand, you don't know who is going to turn it on. On the other hand, you don't know who to depend on. As far as scoring big baskets go, junior Lawrence Westbrook (cousin of Brian Westbrook - RB Philadelphia Eagles) is the one to hit circus shots in the clutch. Unfortunately, he can also be out of control at times. But with the game on the line, his wild shots more often than not seem to find their way in the basket. Our other relative of fame, Ralph Sampson III, is a 6'11" freshman who is a tremendous shot blocker and has shown the ability to take over the game defensively while offering solid contributions on the offensive side of the ball as well.

I think this should be a typical 7/10 game and close the whole way. Even if one team or another gets up 10-12, it will tighten up at the end. I think the depth of the Big 10 definitely makes us battle tested and ready for a team like Texas.

Golden Gophers vs Northwestern Wildcats Preview

rencito — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 04:51:37 -0000

I'm not really sure how much of a preview is needed here. We know the Wildcats well. This will be the third meeting between the teams since mid January. In some way, the fact that they beat us once before could be avdantageous to us. Why? Because we know how they beat us before and we have played better against the 1-3-1 of late. We know exactly what they are going to try to do.

Simply put, the Wildcats have had a nice season, but we have a better coach (Bill Carmody has done a nice job this year, but he isn't Tubby Smith), better talent, and better results this year (41 RPI vs 70). That being said, we are far from invincible. We are quite susceptible to a first round exit.

Keys to a Gopher victory and a date with Michigan State and probably the Big Dance:

Don't let Coble get comfortable. If he starts putting up points and drawing more defenders, that is only going to open up Craig Moore from behind the arc. We should keep tight defensive pressure on him and not let him establish position inside. Iverson's play will be key.

Defend the perimeter. We have been just plain bad at defending the three of late. If Moore gets in a groove, the Gophers will be in trouble.

Use our size and athleticism to our advantage. For the most part, individual defenders on the Wildcats don't scare me. They play well as a unit, but if we break them down and force them off their gameplan, we can leverage our advantages. Part of this also depends on good decision making from our guards.

Keys to a Wildcat win and keeping the hope alive for a first NCAA bid:

Force the Gophers into turnovers. There is no question we are prone to turning the ball over. The Gophers get frustrated easily and often try to force shots when they should pass and vice versa.

Use their bread and butter. The Wildcats have the guile to beat Big 10 opponents. Cobble, Moore, and Michael Thompson amass nearly two-thirds of their total offense. It is clear who they turn to when they need to end a scoring draught and stay close enough to come out on top at the end.

Slow the Gophers down. Don't let Minnesota score easy baskets in transition. We have a tough time in a half court offense. The more we score off of Wildcats turnovers or missed shots, the less the Gophers have to try to manufacture offense.

Rencito's crystal ball: The Wildcats stay close for most of the game, but can't quite keep up at the end. Gophers 67 'Cats 54

Golden Nuggets 03.12.2009

rencito — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 02:43:40 -0000

The Big 10 absolutely deserves at least seven teams. I am getting sick of people scoffing at this notion. I think seven teams is a virtual lock for the conference and they deserve all of them. They could even argue for an 8th. I do realize that RPI is not the only thing you use to evaluate teams, but it is a strong tool.

The Big 10 is second in overall RPI to the ACC. Yes, they are ahead of the Big East and have been virtually all year. The Big 10 boasts out of conference wins over Oklahoma State, Texas, Vanderbilt, Tulsa, Missouri, Boston College, Davidson, Miami, Notre Dame, Butler, Virginia Tech, Louisville, UCLA, Duke, and Florida State. Those are just the biggest names. Sure, they've lost some games, too. But they have proved they are just as deserving as the Big East or ACC.

Here is one blogger who questions the Gophers and the idea of seven teams making the Big Dance.

Also within the Bleacher Report, a Minnesota sports fan weighs arguments for and against the Gophers being in the tournament. He makes a point that I have been saying all season: the Gophers should have a decided size advantage over nearly every team they play--yet they don't use it to their advantage at all. I never understood why we had the rebounding struggles we have had (albeit, it has been better of late).

This lube job thinks the Wildcats will beat Minnesota. His number one argument is that the Wildcats are deeper than the Gophers. I couldn't disagree more with that argument. He also thinks Northwestern is more hungry. I don't buy that either. The Gophers should only need to win one game--it is do or die for them. Meanwhile, the Wildcats probably have to reach the finals of the tournament to get consideration. I think you can make a case for the Wildcats, but not based on these points.

Here is a piece from the City Pages on the Gophers/Wildcats tilt replete with a composite of different sites in/out calls on the Gophers right now. As an aside, do you remember the scene from Will Farrell's much underrated Anchorman where there is a battle royale backstreet brawl among different news teams in the city? Sometimes, when I read articles in the City Pages, I imagine it was written by the PBS, turtleneck wearing character played by Timothy Robbins. I can't explain it. I just do.

As a complete tangent, here is my favorite restaurant review in the City Pages that describes the BEST pizza place in the Twin Cities. The short review itself is priceless and definitely worth reading. If you are lucky enough to watch today's game from home, I highly recommend that you get a pizza from here to go. Otherwise, they will surely have the game on behind the bar should you decide to dine in.

I've seen from various places that Michigan's hockey team is going to play a few outdoor games. I personally don't understand the draw, but it seems to work. I haven't heard anything yet, but once the TCF Stadium opens do you think there is a good chance for Minnesota to host an outdoor hockey game? I would think so.

So what are your thoughts? Does it seem to you that talking heads have not been giving the Gophers basketball any chance? Best line from Anchorman? Second best pizza in the Twin Cities?

Golden Nuggets 03.05.2009

rencito — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 04:37:13 -0000

Big win last night. The best rodent definitely won. Yes, Gophers are superior to badgers. Remember Caddy Shack? By the way, that ends any conversation when people make fun of our mascot. Fear the Gopher!

Personally, I think the win solidifies the NCAA tournament berth for the Gophers. Simply put, the Gophers have 8 wins against likely tournament teams (including Cornell and NDSU...the latter who is going to be a TOUGH first round game for some unlucky opponent who hasn't been paying attention). About the only thing that could derail us at this point is if we lose to Indiana in the B10 tournament.

Okay, here are some links:

Adam Rittenberg believes that Matt Carufel is one of the five transfers into the Big Ten to watch.

Here is an interesting story about revenues and expenses for Big 10 football programs.

The Gophers women's swimming and diving team will be sending a conference high 14 swimmers to the NCAA championships March 19-21.

Not sure if we had reported it earlier, but the women's hockey team has started their playoffs already. Twin sisters Monique and Jocelyn Lamoureux led the Gophers past the Beavers in the first round. Their name may sound familiar--brother Jacques leads D-1 hockey in goals at Air Force.

The baseball team couldn't overcome Northern Iowa, dropping a game to the Panthers 4-3 at the Dome.

Speaking of baseball, sophomore baseball pitcher Cullen Sexton was named Big Ten pitcher of the week for his efforts over the weekend getting a win and a save en route to a Gophers DQ Classic title. By the way, I like these gold baseball uniforms.

Evaluating the Gophers Hoops Possibilities

rencito — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 04:04:15 -0000

(Ed Note: Please welcome rencito to the TDG (is that redundant or not?) publishing family. PJS and I have asked him to be a contributor and we are looking forward to having another person on board to help keep the content fresh.)

Our dear Rodents are left with three regular season games on the schedule before the Big Ten Conference Tournament. We have three Jekyll and Hyde teams to play--not dissimilar from our season.

The Illinois Fighting Illini (22-6, 10-5, RPI 16)

The last time Minnesota played against Illinois, we handed them their worst loss of the year. Fast forward nearly a month and the Illini have held their own in conference play while the Gophers are trying to avoid the downward spiral. Since our last date in the Barn, Illinois has beaten Purdue at home and Ohio State on the road. They also had an even more ugly loss at home to Penn State than the egg they laid at the Barn (pun intended...sorry). The Illini's loss to the Gophers could be dismissed as a fluke, but losing at home to Penn State in that fashion showed that they are a team that can play just as awful as the Gophers have over the past few weeks. Illinois seems to own us, but we rid ourselves of that curse in Minneapolis. I don't think anyone is giving the Gophers much chance in this game; there is plenty of reason not to looking at their road performances this year.

The Wisconsin Badgers (16-10, 8-7, RPI 27)

Sorry...it is hard for me to even write down their name. When I drive through Wisconsin (because seriously, there is hardly a reason to have that as your final destination) I make sure I stop in Stillwater to fill up for gas so that I support Minnesota's economy over Wisconsin's--replete with a full gas can in the trunk to use on the way back. For those Wisconsinites who ended up going to school in Minnesota, I applaud you for making the right decision.

The Badgers have had a rollercoaster ride of a season. Before we met them in mid-January, the Badgers were a highly regarded team looking for another successful Big Ten campaign. After a 3-0 start in conference play, the Badgers lost six Big Ten games in a row before winning their next five and then dropping their most recent tilt in East Lansing. Wisconsin's RPI is a bit of a mirage. They have been buoyed by the fourth strongest schedule in the country. They have played UConn, Virginia Tech, Marquette, and Texas outside the conference. The Virginia Tech game was the only one of the four they won with additional wins over Wisc-Green Bay and then Illinois and Ohio State in the conference to add to their resume. One could certainly make the case that Minnesota has a better body of work than Wisconsin despite having the lower RPI.

The Michigan Wolverines (16-11, 7-8, RPI 56)

The maize and blue probably made the most noise for the Big Ten Conference in non-conference action by beating both UCLA and Duke. Their best win in the conference was a ten point victory over the Illini. They boast a relatively easy win over the Gophers in Ann Arbor. However, the Wolverines are a maddeningly inconsistent team that is just 2-7 away from Chrisler Arena. That being said, they are still hard to predict and certainly have the talent to play with anyone...or lose to anyone as they overcame large deficits to squeak by Savannah State and Indiana, and most recently lost to the Hawkeyes. Michigan is definitely on the outside looking in right now. Their remaining games: Purdue, @Wisconsin, @Minnesota.

For what it is worth, realtimerpi.com has recently added some predictive data to its site. They predict the Gophers to lose in Champaign while beating both Wisconsin and Michigan at home. I think we would take those results and with it a pretty safe bet for the Big Dance.

Currently, realtimerpi.com is projecting us as a #8 seed facing off against Dayton in the first round opposite #1 seed Duke. Joe Lundardi has us as a #11 squaring off against Gonzaga in round one in Philadelphia opposite--get this--#3 seed Villanova. That would be a sure home game for the Wildcats in the second round.

Minnesota currently has an RPI ranking of 37. This standing gives us good reason to believe we will be in the tournament if we stay around this range. Last year, the last team to make the tournament (the team with the lowest RPI that did not get an automatic bid) was...the Kentucky Wildcats at #58. The Wildcats did manage to go 12-5 within their conference which surely helped. Other teams that made it in with much less impressive conference records: St. Joseph's (#50), Baylor (#49), Kansas St (#47), and St Mary's (#45).

I think we are in a much better position than most people realize despite the rough stretch we have endured lately. If we go 2-1 down the stretch we should be fine. Judging other teams' schedules, that would most likely create a four way tie for 4th place among Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Ohio State. We already own splits with PSU and OSU. We have a chance to sweep Wisconsin, so I like where we are at right now. We really don't deserve a tournament berth if we don't play well against these teams down the stretch--especially considering we get Wisconsin and Michigan at home.

Gophers and College Basketball RPI

rencito — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 21:23:45 -0000

(promoted to front by PJS. A well done diary/fanpost).

I am writing this about college basketball, but let me first elaborate on my opinion of such tools by talking about college football and how it relates.

Humans vs Computers

If you will recall, there are two primary components to the BCS formula in college football--the polls and the computer rankings. A few years ago, the BCS created an unfavorable match up in the national championship game that caused an uproar and therefore a tweak to the BCS formula regarding the weighting of the human and computer components. This was probably going to happen in any event--computers or humans--in the absence of a playoff. Critics argued that computers shouldn't hold as much weight as the human polls, that somehow humans were smarter. I was outraged at that argument back then (2003, I believe) and still contend that computers are much better at ranking teams than humans.

First, humans are biased. They go off of name or brand equity and exposure. This is why Utah didn't get a chance to play for the title despite being undefeated in football. I will take this time to toot my own horn where I predicted a double digit win for Utah over Alabama. My point is that computer rankings (such as RPI) take an entire season into consideration and not just a snapshot of who is better this week. For the record, Utah was ranked ahead of Alabama in the computer rankings. However, this is not a predictive tool; rather it is a ranking tool for games played to date. It really is the best way to rank teams in college football.

Does One Game Determine Who is Better?

All that human polls do is rank teams according to an iterative logic (who won this past week, who lost and shuffle accordingly--despite who that win or loss was against). Also, a win early in the season against a supposed favorite can either be supported or refuted by a computer. For example, the Gophers hoops team had a big win over Louisville earlier this year. How big of a win is that really going to turn out to be? Well, if Louisville wins the Big East, that is going to be a huge win. But if Louisville keeps falling to teams like UNLV, as they did a few days ago (at home, no less) then it isn't as great as it once seemed. And it shouldn't be--Louisville was ranked #9 based on perceptions and not reality at the time; and what their RPI ranking was at the time is completely irrelevant--it is only relevant at the end of the season and before the tournament. That ranking at the end of the year tells us how good our opponents really were.

Furthermore, just because team X beats team Y does not necessarily mean that the winning team is "better". They could have been better that day, but if they played 10 times, the outcome could be different. A perfect example of this is last year's Super Bowl. The Giants were definitely better that day, but do you think the Giants would have won more games over the course of a series? I don't think one game makes an entire season. But it does in sports with a one and done sort of playoff (NFL, college football's BCS championship game, and college basketball where one loss sends a team home) where the "best" team does not usually win the championship. One can certainly make the case that a 7 game series (MLB, NHL, NBA) does not guarantee such a result either, but I would argue it does so more often. Likewise, it is possible that team X can beat team Y, yet be ranked below team Y in RPI because of the two schools' "body of work"; that is the context of the entire season not just one head to head game.

Nuts and Bolts of RPI

So how is the RPI calculated? The NCAA does not actually release an official RPI during the season. A close approximation is 25% of your team's winning percentage, 50% of your opponents' winning percentage (strength of schedule), and 25% of your opponents' opponents' winning percentage (opponents strength of schedule). The precise calculation involves adjustments for home/road/neutral results.

So while it took me a while to get here, my point is that the Gophers are currently in a great position RPI wise. Here is a great site that updates RPI standings in a timely manner and is organized in an easy to use fashion. As of this writing, the Gophers are sitting at #37. This includes the win over Ohio State. We were #53 or #54 before the game. Ohio State was a good win for us since the Buckeyes have an RPI ranking of #19 even after the loss. Louisville has a #47 ranking--not quite what it was a few weeks ago. Our loss to Michigan State was to the #11 team--so if you are going to lose, that is the sort of team to lose to--one that won't hurt too badly.

Importance of Conference Play

Now that we are in conference play, you will see a convergence of Big 10 teams' RPI (as you will with other conferences). This is because before conference play teams were playing unrelated teams, often teams that won't play anyone else in the conference. Now, however, all eleven teams are playing against each other. Think for a moment if the Big 10 was the only conference. There would not be a need for an RPI or other computer rankings. The records would speak for themselves since everyone plays one another. So conference play will tighten the standard deviation of the rankings--think of the distribution of RPI in terms of a graph. After conference play, the shape of the graph will be closer to a bell curve than it is now. The current range is #11 (Michigan State) to #192 (Indiana). The Gophers are currently the median at #37; that is they are the middle team in the conference.

RPI Rk		Big Ten	Conf	All	RPI	SOS Rk	SOS
	11	Michigan St.	1-0	10-2	0.6396	22	0.5790
	12	Wisconsin	2-0	10-3	0.6325	13	0.5977
	15	Illinois	1-0	13-1	0.6306	68	0.5451
	19	Ohio St.	1-1	10-2	0.6275	27	0.5758
	26	Northwestern	0-1	8-3	0.6167	33	0.5700
	37	Minnesota	1-1	12-1	0.6005	131	0.5150
	47	Iowa	0-1	10-4	0.5860	73	0.5414
	53	Michigan	0-1	9-3	0.5792	63	0.5476
	81	Purdue	0-1	11-3	0.5538	140	0.5106
	103	Penn St.	1-1	12-3	0.5333	266	0.4597
	192	Indiana	0-0	4-7	0.4827	45	0.5585

You'll notice that the average rank is just over 54. That means 8 of the 11 teams are better than the conference average. Expect the average RPI to fall since any win for the conference is also a loss for another conference team from here on out (with exceptions for any teams playing out of conference games in the middle of conference play, but the effect will be negligible). But this also means that the average will normalize and there will only be five or six teams above the conference average (closer to one half). The range will probably increase because some teams' winning percentage will be a mirage since it was compiled against weak competition. Indiana, for example, could fall into the 250 range as wins will get even tougher for them.

Conference vs Conference RPI

The Big 10 is in a good position this year relative to other conferences thanks to a strong performance against other conferences. The Big 10 has the second best conference RPI right now (ACC). This means that each win against a Big 10 team is going to be worth that much more (although wins against Indiana may prove not helpful).

Rank		Conference	Avg. RPI	Avg. SOS	SOS Rank	Teams
	1	Atlantic Coast	0.5910	0.5251	5	12
	2	Big Ten	0.5893	0.5455	1	11
	3	Big East	0.5794	0.5384	2	16
	4	Big 12	0.5659	0.5084	15	12
	5	Pacific-10	0.5599	0.5208	7	10
	6	Mountain West	0.5385	0.4989	17	9
	7	Southeastern	0.5347	0.4815	21	12
	8	Missouri Valley	0.5296	0.5221	6	10
	9	Atlantic 10	0.5283	0.5180	8	14
	10	Horizon League	0.5191	0.5102	12	10

Final Thoughts

Remember that RPI is not a predictor. It is a way to measure a team's performance to date based on varying schools' schedules. Also, try not to think of RPI in an iterative manner. That is, don't look at an individual game's impact on the RPI. You will often hear pundits talk about a supposed absurdity how a team's win could lower it's RPI. While in isolation that may be true, it isn't just that one game. It is the team's overall performance and the context of that performance--schedule and opponents' schedule. If a team has a gripe about its RPI, it should have won more games or scheduled tougher opponents.

Latest Bracketology

rencito — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 19:03:58 -0000

(Bumped to the front page by PJS, because I was going to write the same thing, and now I don't have to!)

According to Joe Lunardi over at the world wide leader, the Golden Gophers men's basketball team is slated to be a 10 seed (they had previously been off the board all together, including bubble teams on the outside) facing off against seventh seeded Miami in Portland. Lunardi also has Kentucky as a 9 seed in Dayton. If the seeds are this close between Kentucky and Minnesota, I can't see the committee resisting putting them against each other in some fashion in the first round. As it stands now, the Minnesota/Miami winner would presumably play Gonzaga. Oh the sweet irony. The downfall of our program began with Gonzaga's run to one of the elite programs in the country back in 1998.

Michigan joins Minnesota as the 6th Big Ten team in the tournament; the highest tally in some time for the Big 10 and more than the Pac-10 (5) and SEC (4). Lunardi projects Michigan getting an 8 seed an squaring off against Maryland in the first round opposite top seeded UConn. Ohio State and Purdue each are looking at top billing for the Big 10 with 3 seeds.

Of course, this is basically if the season ended today--which it most certainly is not. Naturally, this is a living, breathing document that will see a lot of change as we get closer to March and teams' resumes become more crystalized. But it is good to see us in the picture. A decent Big 10 showing should be all we need to make it into the dance. if we can continue to knock off a few of the big boys, our projected seeding will only climb.

On a personal note, I will be attending the first two rounds of the tournament on location in Miami (regardless of who is playing there). I'm selfishly hoping for the Gophers to land in one of those pods of the tournament.

Former Gopher Greg White

rencito — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 03:44:16 -0000

Former Gopher defensive end who has had a pretty good couple of years in the NFL since finally getting a chance last year has legally changed his name to Stylez G. White. The name change is a tribute to his favorite movie character who was the name of Michael J. Fox's sidekick in the classic Teen Wolf movie.

On a side note, I've always liked White. I thought he was an underrated college player. Glad he is doing well and that the only headlines he is making off the field is this (as far as I know).