Now I'm not familiar with some of the more complicated statistics, but judging from what's easily available, it would seem that shelling out money and draft picks on Marco Scutaro would be a similar mistake to Julio Lugo.  Theo's tripping up in his old age, Gonzo should have been a done deal, even if he was a back-up.  Scutaro is going to cost money, years, and draft picks, and he has only ONE good year in his career.  He also has very limited experience playing for a big-market team (this could be good or bad for him).  Why don't the Sox trade for someone like Maicer Izturis or Cristian Guzman-we'd all like Hanley, but unless Florida has a sudden change of heart, he's not available.  Anyway, these guys won't cost as much, and they (esp. Maicer) are much more proven than someone like Marco Scutaro.  

Lineup for next year-set in stone:

SP-Josh Beckett (contract year)

SP-Jon Lester

SP-Clay Buchholz

SP-Daisuke Matsuzaka

SP-Tim Wakefield (perpetual option)

C-Victor Martinez (contract year if only option used this year)

1B-Kevin Youlilis, Casey Kotchman

2B-Dustin Pedroia

SS-Jed Lowrie/Jose Iglesias

3B-Mike Lowell (contract year)

LF-Josh Reddick?

CF-Jacoby Ellsbury

RF-J.D. Drew

DH-David Ortiz (contract year)-option

RP-Daniel Bard

RP-Hideki Okajima

CL-Jonathan Papelbon

RP-Ramon Ramirez

RP-Manny Delcarmen (he'll come around)

FA's-Paul Byrd, Takashi Saito ($6 MM option), Billy Wagner, Tim Wakefield (option or retire), Victor Martinez (very appetizing $7 MM option), Jason Varitek ($5 MM club, $3 MM player option), Alex Gonzalez ($6 MM option), Nick Green, Rocco Baldelli, Jason Bay

First off, Theo needs to pick up the options for Victor Martinez, and Tim Wakefield if he's healthy enough.  They'll also offer arbitration to some players for at least draft picks, Billy Wagner debatable.  Then of the FA's, he'll possibly/probably try to resign Billy Wagner, Alex Gonzalez, Takashi Saito, Rocco Baldelli, and of course Jason Bay.  Jason Varitek may be let to walk if he doesn't decide to retire or accept a new role.

Then, from the free agent market, it looks like besides resigning Bay, Theo doesn't really have to be aggressive on a big free agent like the Front Office said they'd try to minimize last offseason (and Bay counts more as a resigning to an extension than a Market bid).  I don't consider Holliday an option.  His numbers with an AL team and Oakland proved to me that he is an NL hitter.  He's also a Boras client which is risky for our FO.  He can look for small pieces to make the team better.  

He'll of course go for a pitcher, possibly risk/reward (but now he has five starters is Wake resigns so they don't have to depend on this guy).  Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, Vincente Padilla, Joel Pineiro to name a few.  There is the option to also get aggressive for John Lackey which would make an unbelievable rotation in years to come.  

They need a Backstop-either Varitek or someone else (Bengie or Pudge? or Ramon Castro)

Possibility-new 1B Backup.  Kotchman wasn't inspiring, and the lineup doesn't look good when Lowell gets a day off.  Hinske?  Adam Laroche!?!?!?

Also a SS/2B backup-if they sign Gonzo (PLEASE!?!?) to be the full time SS, then Lowrie or a FA (Cora, OC).  Theo would also love to get his hands on Marco Scutaro-a Gonzo Scutaro Tandem?

4th Outfielder-I liked what I saw from Baldelli this year, but anyone could do-Hinske again or Darin Erstad?

Finally the bullpen.  Papelbon's name may be floating at the Winter Meetings, but something tells me he'll stay.  If he doesn't, closer options are Bard (probably later), Saito, Wagner, Jose Valverde, Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano.  Also, for RP, Rafael Betancourt, Chad Bradford, Octavio Dotel, Chan Ho Park, Jorge Julio, Troy Percival, Julian Tavarez, Scott Eyre, Scott Schoeneweis, just a couple of examples.  

But overall, the offseason work that is necessary is doable through small acquisitions and trades or calling up from the farm.  The team could go for a Big Free Agent Name, but is in the position as last year-they don't depend on it.  However, while they don't depend on it, they may need some Big Time new blood to compete with this powerhouse that is festering in the Bronx-Holliday, Halladay, Lackey????

While it hurts to say this so early in October and on such a sour note from today's game, the offseason is coming; a time of fun, rumors, trades, Big Free Agents, speculation, preparation for Spring Training, and the crazy rush to buy the ever elusive Red Sox Tickets (I got GM this year!).

So see you again next year Red Sox in Ft. Myers, and let's see how you look then.

So with the season nearly over, Tito's mind turns to October (even though it is all ready October!).

Here's a layout for what the playoff roster may look like:

C:V-Mart, Jason Varitek

1B: Kevin Youkilis

2B: Dustin Pedroia

SS: Alex Gonzalez

3B: Mike Lowell

UTIF:    options=Chris Woodward, Nick Green, Jed Lowrie, Casey Kotchman 

LF: Jason Bay

CF: Jacoby Ellsbury

RF: JD Drew

UTOFs:  options=Rocco Baldelli, Joey Gathright, Josh Reddick

DH: David Ortiz

SP:Jon Lester

SP: Josh Beckett

SP: Clay Buchholz 

SP: Daisuke Matsuzaka

CL: Jonathan Papelbon

RP: Takashi Saito

RP: Hideki Okajima

RP: Billy Wagner

RP: Daniel Bard

RP: Ramon Ramirez

RP: options=Tim Wakefield, Paul Byrd, Manny Delcarmen, Michael Bowden

So Tito has some choices to make.  If I could accurately guess, I would say that he'd choose Kotchman and Lowrie for UTIF, both Rocco and Gathright for UTOF, and for the last pitching spot, I think it's a tossup between Manny Delcarmen and Tim Wakefield-Byrd hasn't been really good at all in more than one of his starts.  However, personally for me I take Wakefield for two reasons, his early success and some fall success and loyalty to the organization.

Thoughts?

I was watching Beckett's last start in Toronto last week and I still couldn't understand why he did so badly.  Then it dawned on me.  He wasn't being caught by Jason Varitek.  I looked at the Game Log and it seemed to support my theory.  Over this year, Beckett has had 4 starts where he has given up 7 or more runs (Ok, one he had an unearned...), April 25th, April 30th, June 14th (in Philly, was there to see the HR!), and August 18th.  Of those four, only April 25th, that Yankee slugfest with Tek's Slam was caught by Tek (and that may be attributed to Beckett's slow start this year).  After that, April 30th-George Kottaras.  June 14th-George Kottaras.  August 18th-Victor Martinez.  Now I hope I'm wrong and that these are just shaky starts, but they are uncharacteristic of Beckett.  Now Beckett showed signs of brilliance in Florida with other catchers, however he never really gained his prowess until coming to Boston.  Could it be he needs Jason Varitek more than meets the eye?

So after all that adventure with Julio Lugo, why is he suddenly a pretty good player with the Cardinals?  He has at least a hit most games, a bomb, and is playing decent SS with one error-decent if it stays one error.  And all we got for this guy is a salary dump and a guy who'll probably never make the majors-Chris Duncan?  While he wasn't always the best, a .311 BA doesn't lie.  Theo shouldn't have listened to the fans so much because now we're looking at our starting SS Nick Green with a .230's average.

With the Home Run tonight, David Ortiz has hit his 298th career home run.  This makes it very likely that he'll hit the home run at Camden Yards (Fenway 2) next week, or maybe if he gets caught up in it during the Mariners series next weekend.  Do the Red Sox plan to do anything special to celebrate this?  I have not heard a whisper about this milestone that I have observed coming up.  Over his career, David Ortiz has hit the pitchers: Jamie Moyer, Jamie Walker, Jon Garland, Paul Byrd, Mark Buehrle, Esteban Loaiza, Jon Lieber, Gary Glover, Gil Meche, Sidney Ponson (Roids!), Jeff and Jered Weaver, John Lackey, Seth McClung, Andy Pettitte, Mo, CC, Chien-MIng Wang, Miguel Batista, Kevin Millwood, and Doc Halladay particulary well.  Coming up soon are Gil Meche and Miguel Batista, so look out for those names.  I'm sure wherever he hits it he'll get a nice ovation.

On a side not, it's almost unreal that in 2 weeks, Nomar will be making his first trip home after 5 years.  That should be an emotional series.

Come on Red Sox Nation-vote early and often to send Youkilis and Pedroia to St. Louis next month.  After all, who wants to see Teixeira there.

Attempts to fill the word count:

Also, Mark Wagner seems to be red hot.  If there is a bidding war over Joe Mauer in a couple of years, he could be an important bargaining chip for the Red Sox.

David Ortiz might make a comeback after all with the way he's swinging.  He'd be key in an ALCS vs NYY.  I watched him take BP in Philly (I live near there) and he was crushing them upstairs into the upper deck-what the Philly fans call Ryan Howard territory.  Dice-K also had some homers in BP as did Jed-I.

Finally, if we don't sweep the nats......!

So vote Youkilis and Pedroia.

As I wear my old number 24 shirt, I report that Manny "Greedy" Boras has finally signed with the Dodgers.  The original 2 years $45 million offered in the fall, to which Boras said "We will start fielding real offers..." apparently did it.  Obviously Frank McCourt's "start from scratch" ploy scarred the crap out of Boras.  I've got to say, I think Scott Boras really dropped the ball on this one.  This entire dance that he had Manny orchestrate to get out of Boston, to the "promised land" in LA and onward to his mega deal got Manny $5 million more than he would have in Boston.  In baseball money, that's pretty pathetic.  And it's so funny how Manny still keeps up the act, with the "This isn't Boston" comments.  Theo Epstein must be sitting real pretty right now.  Obviously he made out in the long run.  Because while many, myself included, LOVED Manny Ramirez in a Boston uniform, Epstein, Henry, and Co. were the more mature of the two parties in this situation.  And while Manny tries to paint the problem on the Red Sox, it's pretty clear that Manny had some clubhouse issues (Youk fight, Jack McAllister, Schilling, and players like Pedroia even denouncing him).  And as a long time Manny fan, this is hard to say.  But I give credit to Theo for getting out a clubhouse problem and he got Jason Bay for 1.5 years for a lot less money, while only giving up a bit of Manny's last year.  So finally this saga comes to an end....

According to WEEI.com,

Rob Bradford of WEEI.com has reported that Sean Casey has signed on with the MLB Network, making his retirement official.

Casey, 34, hit .322/.381/.392 in 218 plate appearances for the Red Sox in 2008.

Well, I enjoyed watching the Mayor hit, he was the ultimate "Professional Hitter", just single after double though no homers this year...But overall a successful idea of having him sub for Youk/Lowell in that type of situation, great in the clubhouse.  Kind of encourages the idea of leaving Kotsay in the outfield and bring on Kevin Millar for a similar role.  Man, he can hit with the Green Monster...

Interesting, but one of the Cinci media said today when asked about Casey's potential return, "Nah, he's retiring".  Seemed like just a guess, but now it's official.

"Peter Gammons is reporting that the Red Sox are close to signing outfielder Rocco Baldelli to be the team's fourth outfielder. Baldelli will be a guest at tomorrow night's Boston Baseball Writers Dinner, where he will receive the 2008 Tony Conigliaro Award. The deal is expected to be announced then. We're working on confirming this, and we'll let you know when it is confirmed." -Source: Boston Globe's Extra Bases

Very predictable move.  As long as there is not any problem with him not playing every day, I like him off the bench.  Though I still think the team needs some hitting depth better than last year's. Hopefully Theo figures out a way to address this issue.