
rghan
Jun 24, 2008 Dec 16, 2009 139 638
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Future Angels Top Ten Prospects
Stephen Smith's top 10:
1. Trevor Reckling LHP
2. Garrett Richards RHP
3. Will Smith LHP
4. Hank Conger C
5. Mike Trout OF
6. Jordan Walden RHP
7. Mark Trumbo 1B-OF
8. Peter Bourjos OF
9. Randal Grichuk OF
10. Alexi Amarista 2B
21 days ago
rghan
9 comments
0 recs
John Sickels' Top 20 Angels Prospects
All in all, the most upbeat assessment of our system I've seen from an outsider in a long time.
23 days ago
rghan
17 comments
3 recs
Rule 5 Draft - Who Could Get Poached?
Below the jump are the Angels' prospects who are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft. Mount, Statia, Moore, and Mendoza have all graced the Angels' top prospect rankings in the past, and Mendoza in particular is coming off of a strong season. I can see him and/or Marco Albano having the most short-term and long-term value to a poaching club. I based the list on my Wikipedia-deep understanding of the Rule 5 draft, so if there are errors, please point out the necessary corrections.
17 comments | 0 recs |
A's Sign Dallas McPherson
Damn. I was hoping to see him back with the Bees. It's going to be very hard to root for a guy in the green and gold, but I'll do it. Good luck Dallas.
24 days ago
rghan
17 comments
0 recs
John Sickels' Initial Angels Prospect List
His preliminary grades should be up by tomorrow afternoon. I respect the breadth of his work - no other single person seems to wrap his head around all thirty organizations like he can.
27 days ago
rghan
3 comments
0 recs
Best Angels Prospect Performances, Going Back to 2005
Below is a compilation of the Halos' best prospect performances going back to 2005. I give two run values for position players: the "+ bat" is how many more runs that prospect created over their league's average player according to a widely-used runs created formula. The "+ glove" is how many runs that player saved in the field according to Sean Smith's "TotalZone" defensive metric. For pitchers, I compare their runs allowed per game to the league average to generate the "runs saved" metric. Both pitchers and position players are then ranked by "WAR," or "Wins Above Replacement," which is an inclusive metric that incorporates each player's runs values with adjustments for playing time and position. Using the replacement-level concept for minor leaguers brings up all kinds of theoretical sabermetric questions, but I have my reasons for keeping the calculations as similar as I could to those used for major leaguers. Lastly, keep in mind that WAR is a counting stat and minor leaguers play at least 10% fewer games than their major league counterparts, so a 3.9 WAR here is more impressive (for temporal reasons only) than a 3.9 WAR over a 162 game schedule. 30) Anthony Ortega, 2007, High A 7 wins, 11 losses. 163.1 IP, 4.02 ERA, 127 K / 68 BB. +13 runs saved, 3.9 WAR.
8 comments | 0 recs |
CHONE Projections Up
Sean Smith makes two gigantic annual contributions to the baseball-loving community: his CHONE projections, historically the most accurate projection system for MLB players in the upcoming season, and his TotalZone defensive metrics, which were featured here on Halosheaven over the past two weeks. The 2010 CHONE projections are now available at Sean's website, www.baseballprojection.com. Check these out if you want to dominate your fantasy league!
about 1 month ago
rghan
8 comments
0 recs
Alexia Amarista: Best Angels Prospect Performance #1
1) Alexia Amarista, 20 - 2B, A-Ball
.319/.390/.468 with 4 HR and 38 SB's. +18 bat, +20 glove
Only three players have put up better seasons in the Halos' system over the past five years: Brandon Wood in 2005, Howie Kendrick in 2005, and Sean Rodriguez in 2006. That's some pretty good company for Amarista, whom Baseball America failed to even mention in their Midwest League's top 20 prospects, despite the fact that he won the batting title, was voted best defensive second baseman by the league's managers, and was younger than half of the guys who made the top 20. The reason for the snub, of course, is Amarista's height - he's 5'6" or 5'5," depending on who you ask, though he's built like a cornerback - which means he may be maxed out physically. This is more of a scouting/projectability issue, which is not my area of expertise, so take my feelings on the matter with a grain of salt. Screw BA on this one. With Amarista's blend of batting eye, high contact rate, speed, gap power and consistency, he's likely to continue producing with the bat as he ascends through the minors (unlike, say Clay Fuller from last year, who in retrospect lacked the contact rate and consistency). And even if advanced pitching causes the bat to tail off at the higher levels, the glove alone will continue to make him an interesting prospect. Is his ceiling huge? No, but there's enough here statistically not to write him off.
One last thing: Fangraphs credits Amarista with a +27.5 bat, due to the massive park factor they use and an added premium for speed. I'm not sure he was that good, but I would concede that his true value likely fell somewhere between the 5.75 wins ("WARP") I have him down for, and the ~6.5 wins that the fangraphs' numbers would suggest. In a 144 game minor league season, that is phenomenal.
9 comments | 0 recs |
Carlos Ramirez: Best Angels Prospect Performance #2
2) Carlos Ramirez, 21 - C, Advanced Rookie Pioneer League
.389/.514/.695 with 10 HR and 0 SB's. +36 bat, +8 glove
Sammy Swenson. Matt Pali. Josh Gray. Sergio Contreras. Grodon Gronkowski. Those are some other guys who pounded the ball in the Pioneer League over the past decade, but never encored against advanced competition. I mention them only to provide the perspective one has to have when looking at ridiculous Pioneer League stats.
That said, Ramirez' offensive production was better than all of them, and better than the production of more well known Pioneer League mashers Chris Pettit, Roberto Lopez, Dallas McPherson, Howie Kendrick and Sean Rodriguez. He didn't make his debut until July 19th, so only managed 214 PA's, but they were the best PA's Orem has seen in at least a decade. Throw in the fact that he's an above average receiver with excellent intangibles, and we may have a major leaguer on our hands. Behind Conger and Wilson there is little standout catching depth, so Ramirez, who is just a hair younger than Conger, could move very quickly next year.
And if you still need convincing, let me insert a quote from Sean Smith, creator of TotalZone, who was interested in putting Ramirez' college numbers from ASU into context:
Comparing [Ramirez' college] numbers to a pair of Sun Devils, Andre Ethier and Dustin Pedroia, I get:
avg slg
C-Ram 361 635
Ped 384 544
AE 371 559
I only have Carlo's walk numbers for 2009 so I didn't compare OBP, but his walk rate is similar to theirs, though he strikes out more often than they did.
The Halos tried and failed to sign Ramirez after selecting him in the 34th round of the 2007 draft. Makes you wonder why he was still around in the 8th round this year, doesn't it?
Again, remember that this list is based entirely on statistical performance in 2009, and is not a traditional "best prospects" ranking.
13 comments | 0 recs |
Sean Rodriguez: Best Angels Prospect Performance #3
3) Sean Rodriguez, 24 - 2B, OF, SS, AAA
.299/.400/.616 with 29 HRs and 9 SBs. +36 bat, -2 glove
Rodriguez has ranked among the Angels' top ten minor league performers every year going back to 2005, and in the top five three times. He's the only Halos' farmhand to do that, avoiding major injuries, prolonged slumps, or even bouts of just average performance. That's astounding, and it wouldn't surprise me if the 23.8 "wins above replacement" that he accumulated over that 5 year period surpassed that of every other minor leaguer. I think he's going to find a niche for himself in Tampa and grow into an everyday player for them, most likely at second base.
Again, remember that this list is based entirely on statistical performance in 2009, and is not a traditional "best prospects" ranking.
11 comments | 0 recs |
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