SB Nation User Blog: rghan

Alex Torres Named Baseball America's #9 Rays Prospect

rghan — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 19:28:01 -0000

Alex Torres Named Baseball America's #9 Rays Prospect

Doesn't sound like much, but given the Ray's kick-ass system this is quite the endorsement. I'm happy to see him on his way to a productive career.

Class of 2005: The Angels Best Breakout Candidates

rghan — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 18:05:14 -0000

Folks with long baseball memories recall 2005 as the year the Angels drafted but failed to sign Buster Posey and Brian Matusz (best Eddie Bane quote ever: "[Matusz] wanted a million bucks. Guess we should have given it to him..."). The Halos obviously missed the boat with those two, but harvested a solid collection of players currently headlined by Peter Bourjos, Sean O'Sullivan and Trevor Bell. At the time, the Angels were also congratulating themselves on snagging five other teenage talents from the draft and international FA market whose names should be familiar here: Ryan Mount, P.J. Phillips, Angel Castillo, Jeremy Moore, and Luis Jimenez. Each was the quintessential high ceiling prospect, an athletic, up-the-middle player with tons of projection, but who would need plenty of development time. Four and a half years later, not one of those guys rank among the Halos' top 30 prospects, but they continue to flash some of the best tools in the organization.

Professional baseball is littered with the "skeleton frames of burnt out" athletes who never developed MLB-caliber skills, so picking just one of the 2005 cohort to breakout in 2010 is a roll of the dice. For me, the interesting thing here is not so much the individual players themselves, but the quantity of potential four and five tool athletes who will make a run at turning their considerable natural talent into baseball skills. The laws of averages suggests that one of Mount, Phillips, Castillo, Moore, or Jimenez will break through in High A or AA, and potentially crack most Top 5 Angels Prospect lists next year. So here they are, in descending order, your top minor league breakout candidates of 2010.

5) Ryan Mount - .253/.302/.345, 80 OPS+ with 4 HR and 5 SB's. -1 glove.

2005 - 2^nd Round, 58^th Overall, signed for $615,000

The difference between Mount's promising '08 campaign and his disappointing '09? A dozen homeruns. That's it...

Overall, his K-rate, walk rate, batted ball distribution and BABIP changed very little. He just hit 12 or so fly balls that died in the Travs' endless outfield instead of clearing the fence. No doubt Arkansas is a crummy park for hitters, but the 80 OPS+ underscores the limits of a player whose value is tied to good-but-not-elite pop. Batting .208/.250/.264 over 53 Arizona Fall League AB's did nothing to boost his stock (though he looks good in this video). While it's possible that Mount jumps to AAA next year, I think the favorable hitting environment would be counterproductive to his development: it would be a hard thing to commit yourself to a new approach when you're suddenly hitting .280 with power in Salt Lake City's thin air. Taking another shot at AA while fellow second baseman Nate Sutton advances to AAA makes far more sense. Moreover, recently signed minor league free agent Alex Valdez is coming off of a strong '09 season in AA, is currently smoking it in the Dominican, hitting .296/.353/.454, and will probably also move ahead of Mount on the organization's thinning middle infield depth chart.

4) P.J. Phillips - .232/.271/.366, 67 OPS+ with 10 HR, 23 SB's and +5 glove (in CF)

2005 - 2^nd Round, 71^st Overall, signed for $505,000

On the surface, Phillips' season looks far worse than even the disappointing .275/.311/.416 line he put up at the same level in ‘08. However, there are qualifications to consider: back in April, the Halos bumped him from shortstop to second base, where he gritted it out defensively but hit only .202/.237/.327; in the early summer, he shifted to the outfield, looked more comfortable, and hit .261/.304/.411 from that point on - certainly no breakout, but a step in the right direction. Moreover, he kicked ass in centerfield, drawing good reviews from both scouts and TotalZone. I saw him in August and he looked like the best athlete in a Quakes' uniform, ripping a double and a triple, running the bases well, and making two outstanding plays in the field. Most promisingly, he posted a solid .281/.333/.422 line against good pitching in the AFL after taking Pete Bourjos' roster spot on the Mesa Sox. The video here shows him working the count and driving the ball, providing hope for a 2010 breakout. Advanced pitching and the Travs' spacious ballpark will eat him alive if he doesn't change his approach, but again, take heart from Phillips working the count in the video above. I posted a picture of him below - that lanky frame remains extraordinary projectable.

3) Angel Castillo - .244/.321/.395, +103 OPS with 13 HR's, 16 SB's and +10 glove

2005 - August Signing, Bonus Unknown

Castillo is one of two guys in the Angels' system who could come out of nowhere in '10 and whack 30 homeruns. He also plays an outstanding right fielder, shows speed on the base paths, and will take one for the team at every opportunity (he tied teammate Roberto Lopez for most HBP's in the system last year with 17). However, while he did cut his k-rate by about 4% from ‘08, he still whiffed in nearly 25% of his '09 PA's. The most frustrating yet tantalizing thing about Castillo? He hit .298/.378/.558 against lefties last year (the flip side is he hit an anemic .224/.288/.348 against righties). Scouting reports have harped on Castillo's inability to hit breaking balls, so the extreme split makes sense. I saw him absolutely crush an offspeed pitch from a righty last June (a game winning homerun), and when I asked him about it he acknowledged that he was sitting on the change-up. If he ever learns to hit something with break (F-U Jobu!), watch out, because he has the tools of an allstar. The Halos signed him as a seventeen year old, so his clock is ticking a little too fast for him to still be in A-ball: he'll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next year, and will have to make the 40-man by 2011 to stick with the Halos.

2) Jeremy Moore - .282/.336/.456, 108 OPS+ with 13 HR, 18 SB, and a +8 glove.

2005 - 6^th Round Pick, 193^rd Overall, Signed for $100,000.

The sabermetric wisdom pegs the toolsey Moore to regress - not breakout - after an '09 campaign that featured a 28% k-rate and well-above-average .388 batting average on balls in play. That's fuel for the haters, sure, but let's consider the positives: Moore actually reduced his k-rate by 4% over his 2008 numbers, he improved his walk rate by 2%, he had no problem squaring balls up, and his batted ball distribution - 19% line drives and 47% groundballs - supports an above-average BABIP for a speedy left-handed hitter. His best games of the season came in a brief July promotion to AA, so the Trav's cavernous park didn't trip him up much. Lastly, his defense was outstanding across the board, a virtue that outfielders Terry Evans and Chris Pettit didn't share in ‘09. Is he a late bloomer? The exceptional homerun power that he showed in Cedar Rapids was absent in the first half of ‘09, but could reemerge. His 56% stolen base success rate this season was terrible, but hopefully failure taught him a thing or two about when to swipe a bag. He showed a slight reverse split, handling lefties better than righties, so there's no sign of a platoon weakness (yet). All that could add up to him becoming a left-handed Terry Evans - which, fair or not, is more valuable than the right-handed Terry Evans - or even better. Or he could flop, but I have a good feeling about him. See the picture below.

1) Luis Jimenez, 3B - (2008 stats) .331/.361/.630, 151 OPS+ with 15 HR's, 6 SB's, and +5 glove.

2005 - August Signing, Bonus Unknown (as a catcher)

Here's the other guy who could come out of nowhere and knock 30 HR's in 2010. Luis "Lucho" Jimenez made all of the top prospect lists last year on the strength of two consecutive homerun titles, a crazy good (even for the Pioneer League) .293 ISO, solid contact rate, and scouting reports that said he could be at least an average third baseman. Sadly, he tore the labrum in his throwing shoulder in an ‘08 game where he made two diving plays - one trying to make a stop at the hot corner, and one diving back to first to avoid a pick-off - and succumbed to a surgery that sidelined him through 2009. He's currently on the AZL Halos' roster, presumably rehabbing, but where he slots in come 2010 is a mystery - if he's healthy enough to slot in at all. Do the Halos send him to Cedar Rapids, taking at-bats away from Dillon Baird, Casey Haerther and Mike Wing while ignoring Jimenez' ticking minor league free agency clock? Or do the Halos skip him to Rancho to reunite with his cohort, and hope for California League fireworks? At this point there are more questions than data to chew over, so all we can do is wait and watch for this guy in the boxscore.

Poll

Who's your bet to breakout in 2010?

Angels Chasing Vazquez

rghan — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 00:01:39 -0000

Angels Chasing Vazquez

Well that's something. Juan Rivera would go a long ways towards making the deal happen, but there would probably have to be another piece. What do you think?

Future Angels Top Ten Prospects

rghan — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:20:27 -0000

Future Angels Top Ten Prospects

Stephen Smith's top 10:

1. Trevor Reckling LHP
2. Garrett Richards RHP
3. Will Smith LHP
4. Hank Conger C
5. Mike Trout OF
6. Jordan Walden RHP
7. Mark Trumbo 1B-OF
8. Peter Bourjos OF
9. Randal Grichuk OF
10. Alexi Amarista 2B

John Sickels' Top 20 Angels Prospects

rghan — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 23:28:12 -0000

John Sickels' Top 20 Angels Prospects

All in all, the most upbeat assessment of our system I've seen from an outsider in a long time.

Rule 5 Draft - Who Could Get Poached?

rghan — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 21:25:53 -0000

Below the jump are the Angels' prospects who are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft. Mount, Statia, Moore, and Mendoza have all graced the Angels' top prospect rankings in the past, and Mendoza in particular is coming off of a strong season. I can see him and/or Marco Albano having the most short-term and long-term value to a poaching club. I based the list on my Wikipedia-deep understanding of the Rule 5 draft, so if there are errors, please point out the necessary corrections.

Position Players

Bradley Coon

Nate Sutton

Abel Nieves

Flint Wipke

Pitchers

Tommy Mendoza

Marco Albano

David Herndon

Amalio Diaz

Francisco Rodriguez

Barret Browning

A's Sign Dallas McPherson

rghan — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 18:13:51 -0000

A's Sign Dallas McPherson

Damn. I was hoping to see him back with the Bees. It's going to be very hard to root for a guy in the green and gold, but I'll do it. Good luck Dallas.

John Sickels' Initial Angels Prospect List

rghan — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 01:03:49 -0000

John Sickels' Initial Angels Prospect List

His preliminary grades should be up by tomorrow afternoon. I respect the breadth of his work - no other single person seems to wrap his head around all thirty organizations like he can.

Best Angels Prospect Performances, Going Back to 2005

rghan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:00:57 -0000

Below is a compilation of the Halos' best prospect performances going back to 2005. I give two run values for position players: the "+ bat" is how many more runs that prospect created over their league's average player according to a widely-used runs created formula. The "+ glove" is how many runs that player saved in the field according to Sean Smith's "TotalZone" defensive metric. For pitchers, I compare their runs allowed per game to the league average to generate the "runs saved" metric. Both pitchers and position players are then ranked by "WAR," or "Wins Above Replacement," which is an inclusive metric that incorporates each player's runs values with adjustments for playing time and position. Using the replacement-level concept for minor leaguers brings up all kinds of theoretical sabermetric questions, but I have my reasons for keeping the calculations as similar as I could to those used for major leaguers.

Lastly, keep in mind that WAR is a counting stat and minor leaguers play at least 10% fewer games than their major league counterparts, so a 3.9 WAR here is more impressive (for temporal reasons only) than a 3.9 WAR over a 162 game schedule.

30) Anthony Ortega, 2007, High A

7 wins, 11 losses. 163.1 IP, 4.02 ERA, 127 K / 68 BB. +13 runs saved, 3.9 WAR.

29) Mike Napoli, 2005, AA

.237/.372/.508 with 31 HR's and 12 SB's. +18 bat, 3.9 WAR

28) Freddy Sandoval, 2008, AAA

.335/.389/.514 with 15 HR's and 6 SB's. +18 bat, +3 glove, 4.0 WAR

27) Hainley Statia, 2006, A and High A

.298/.380/.382 with 1 HR and 24 SB's. +7 bat, +12 glove, 4.0 WAR

26) Peter Bourjos, 2009, AA

.281/.354/.423 with 6 HR's and 32 SB's. +7 bat, +15 glove, 4.1 WAR

25) Sean Rodriguez, 2008, AAA

.306/.397/.645 with 21 HR's and 4 SB's. +24 bat, +6 glove, 4.1 WAR

24) Brok Butcher, 2007, High A and AA

6 wins, 9 losses. 139.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 77 K / 35 BB. +22 runs saved, 4.1 WAR

23) Trevor Bell, 2009, AA and AAA

7 wins, 7 losses. 140 IP, 2.70 ERA, 89 K/36 BB. +22 runs saved, 4.1 WAR

22) Sean Rodriguez, 2007, AA

.254/.345/.423 with 17 HR's and 15 SB's. +11 bat, +7 glove, 4.2 WAR

21) Matthew Brown, 2008, AAA

.320/.373/.580 with 21 HR's and 4 SB's. +25 bat, +6 glove, 4.3 WAR

20) Freddy Sandoval, 2007, AA

.305/.392/.468 with 11 HR's and 21 SB's. +21 bat, +3 glove, 4.4 WAR

19) Peter Bourjos, 2008, High A

.295/.326/.444 with 9 HR's and 50 SB's. +0 bat, +24 glove, 4.4 WAR

18) Trevor Reckling, 2009, High A and AA

9 wins, 9 losses. 154.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 122 K/78 BB. +25 runs saved, 4.4 WAR

17) Nick Adenhart, 2006, A and High A

15 wins, 4 losses. 158.1 IP, 2.56 ERA, 145 K/42 BB. +27 runs saved, 4.5 WAR

16) Anthony Norman, 2008, High A

.257/.381/.468 with 15 HR's and 36 SB's. +13 bat, +22 glove, 4.5 WAR

15) Chris Pettit, 2006, Advanced Rookie Ball

.336/.445/.566 with 7 HR's and 5 SB's. +24 bat, +14 glove, 4.5 WAR

14) Reggie Willits, 2006, AAA

.327/.448/.426 with 3 HR's and 15 SB's. +12 bat, +19 glove, 4.6 WAR

13) Alexander Torres, 2009, AA

13 wins, 4 losses. 147.1 IP, 2.75 ERA, 149 SO/80 BB. +28 runs saved, 4.7 WAR

12) Roberto Lopez, 2008, Advanced Rookie Ball

.400/.480/.667 with 14 HR's and 3 SB's. +42 bat, -3 glove, 4.7 WAR

11) Joe Saunders, 2006, AAA

10 wins, 3 losses. 135 IP, 2.67 ERA, 97 K/38 BB. +31 runs saved, 4.8 WAR

10) Clayton Fuller, 2008, A

.260/.379/.425 with 9 HR's and 36 SB's. +20 bat, +9 glove, 4.8 WAR

9) Sean Rodriguez, 2009, AAA

.299/.4 00/.616 with 29 HR's and 9 SB's. +36 bat, -2 glove, 5.0 WAR

8) Chris Pettit, 2007, A and High A

.327/.411/.538 with 18 HR's and 30 SB's. +43 bat, -7 glove, 5.1 WAR

7) Howie Kendrick, 2006, AAA

.369/.408/.631 with 13 HR's and 11 SB's. +33 bat, +7 glove, 5.2 WAR

6) Carlos Ramirez, 2009, Advanced Rookie Ball

.389/.514/.695 with 10 HR's and 0 SB's. +36 bat, +8 glove, 5.3 WAR

5) Stephen Marek, 2006, A and High A

12 wins, 5 losses. 151.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 133 K/ 37 BB. +36 runs saved, 5.3 WAR

4) Alexia Amarista, 2009, A

.319/.390/.468 with 4 HR's and 38 SB's. +18 bat, +20 glove, 5.8 WAR

3) Howie Kendrick, 2005, High A and AA

.367/.406/.614 with 19 HR's and 25 SB's. +44 bat, +8 glove, 6.7 WAR

2) Sean Rodriguez, 2006, High A

.307/.387/.557 with 29 HR's and 15 SB's. +35 bat, +13 glove, 7.4 WAR

1) Brandon Wood, 2005, High A

.321/.383/.672 with 43 HR's and 7 SB's. +54 bat, +8 glove, 8.7 WAR

CHONE Projections Up

rghan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:42:21 -0000

CHONE Projections Up

Sean Smith makes two gigantic annual contributions to the baseball-loving community: his CHONE projections, historically the most accurate projection system for MLB players in the upcoming season, and his TotalZone defensive metrics, which were featured here on Halosheaven over the past two weeks. The 2010 CHONE projections are now available at Sean's website, www.baseballprojection.com. Check these out if you want to dominate your fantasy league!