SB Nation User Blog: rglass44

OTTOTD 12/11/09: The "F* my f a** right now!"

rglass44 — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:03:38 -0000

Great Reality TV Character or Greatest Reality TV Character?

Quick and Dirty Look at the Projected Roster with Projections

rglass44 — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:47:00 -0000

I did a quick glance to see who I thought would make the roster barring any more moves. I left 2 open spots (backup catcher and last BP arm) because who knows who'll shake out. Then I did a quick WAR projection for the 25 man. I did it almost as a baseline, a minimum I'd expect factoring in some chance of injury or regression.

		WAR
C	Shoppach	2
1B	Pena	3
2B	Zobrist	4
3B	Longo	6
SS	Bartlett	3
LF	CC	4
CF	Upton	3.5
RF	Joyce	2
DH	Burrell	1
B	Kapler	1
B	Aybar	1
B	Backup C	0

SP	Shields	4
SP	Garza	3
SP	Price	2.5
SP	Niemann	2.5
SP	Davis	1.5
CL	Soriano	1.5
SU	Howell	1
SU	Balfour	1
MR	Wheeler	0.25
MR	Choate	0.25
MR	Cormier	0.25
MR	?	0
SW	Sonny	0.5
	WAR	48.75
	Wins	96.25

As you can see, even with a pretty baseline forecast this team looks like a team that should make a playoff run. If our players only achieve at these minimum levels, I doubt we do make the playoffs because of divisional strength. Looks like a pretty good team next year. If we add Bradley we will have addressed 3 of our biggest needs from last year on paper: getting SOME production out of the catcher spot, getting SOME production out of the DH spot, and upgrading the BP. Throw in some hopeful progression by the youngsters and I'm excited. How long till pitchers and catchers report?

lol Cool infield Sox.

rglass44 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 20:07:51 -0000

lol

Cool infield Sox.

Gregg Zaun says he may sign by the end of the day and one of the finalists are the Rays.

rglass44 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:33:36 -0000

Gregg Zaun says he may sign by the end of the day and one of the finalists are the Rays.

The FAN 590

Players such as Fontenot earn Super Two status and get an early start on arbitration, which can...

rglass44 — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:11:08 -0000

Players such as Fontenot earn Super Two status and get an early start on arbitration, which can bring hefty raises. Other Super Twos include Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum, Rays pitcher Matt Garza, Cubs pitcher Tom Gorzelanny, Royals third baseman Alex Gordon, Orioles pitcher Matt Albers, Pirates pitcher Jeff Karstens, Astros outfielder Hunter Pence, Rangers pitcher Dustin Nippert and newly acquired Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez.

Those players can file for arbitration in mid-January and those who don't settle go to hearings the following month, with three-arbitrator panels selecting the salary proposed by either the player or club.

MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger

I think we all knew this was coming, but it's official. I wonder what he'll get in arb. Defs a healthy raise.

Free Agent Relief Pitcher Market

rglass44 — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:47:09 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Free agent reliever Chan Ho Park fares pretty well in the two statistics we're looking at today. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

Browse more photos »

RJ, Tommy, Erik, et al have done a good job so far pinpointing a few choice free agent relief pitchers. Today I'm going to take a macro-level look at the free agents and how they fared in a couple of important statistics the last three years: K% and GB%. I did a similar post last year in which I used K/9, but i felt that K% gives you a better look at the true talent-level of the pitcher as far as striking guys out.

After the jump you'll find a table of how all the FA RPs have performed in these two indicators over the last three years.

3-year avg.
Pitcher (Type)	GB%	K%	Quadrant
O. Dotel (A)	34.8%	30.0%	II
B. Wagner (A)	36.1%	29.9%	II
R. Soriano (A)	31.1%	29.4%	II
M. Gonzalez (A)	36.4%	27.9%	II
J. Valverde (A)	38.5%	27.6%	II
J. Putz*	42.4%	25.9%	II
R. Betancourt* (A)	28.4%	24.8%	II
K. Calero (B)	32.5%	24.1%	II
J. Benoit	33.4%	23.8%	II
R. Springer (B)	26.1%	23.5%	II
K. Gregg (A)	36.9%	22.8%	II
F. Rodney (B)	50.1%	22.1%	I
T. Hoffman (A)	35.8%	22.1%	II
S. Eyre (B)	36.6%	20.9%	II
T. Percival	26.9%	20.5%	II
L. Vizcaino*	35.1%	20.3%	II
W. Ohman* (B)	36.7%	19.8%	II
C. Park (B)	47.0%	19.6%	I
B. Howry (B)	33.3%	19.3%	II
D. Oliver (A)	46.5%	19.1%	I
J. Isringhausen	45.9%	19.0%	I
J. Grabow (A)	43.7%	18.6%	I
R. Mahay	43.1%	18.3%	II
B. Donnelly	36.1%	18.3%	II
T. Gordon	46.0%	18.2%	I
A. Embree	39.3%	18.0%	II
J. Rincon	44.8%	17.8%	I
League Average	43.6%	17.6%
G. Mota (B)	41.4%	17.5%	III
C. Vargas	37.4%	17.2%	III
R. Villone	37.9%	17.1%	III
D. Brocail* (B)	42.6%	16.8%	III
B. Tomko	40.5%	16.7%	III
L. Hawkins (A)	51.2%	16.6%	IV
M. Herges	43.5%	16.1%	III
B. Lyon (B)	43.3%	15.9%	III
K. Wells	49.1%	15.8%	IV
B. Shouse* (B)	59.4%	15.3%	IV
L. Ayala	41.7%	15.2%	III
R. Franklin*	45.6%	15.2%	IV
G. Glover	38.6%	15.2%	III
J. Walker	34.7%	15.1%	III
J. Wright	58.7%	15.0%	IV
M. Hendrickson	44.3%	14.8%	IV
M. Batista	45.1%	14.8%	IV
D. Sanchez	40.5%	14.8%	III
J. Beimel (B)	44.8%	14.4%	IV
M. Kobayashi*	50.3%	14.3%	IV
S. Schoeneweis	49.3%	14.2%	IV
J. Weaver	37.5%	14.2%	III
E. Guardado	28.9%	13.4%	III
D. Baez	56.8%	13.1%	IV
J. Fogg	40.5%	12.8%	III
E. Dessens	43.8%	12.2%	IV
G. Majewski	50.8%	12.1%	IV
C. Bradford	62.9%	8.9%	IV

The final column, "Quadrant," refers to the quadrant they place in on the following scatter-plot: The "*" refers to players who have an option for 2010. Type obviously refers to whether the player projects to be a Type A/B free agent.

Ideally, you want a pitcher from quadrant I that gets more strikeouts and grounders than league average. There are a few of those guys, but someone like Fernando Rodney (the clear standout on the graph) will probably fetch more than we should spend because he's got the "proven closer" pedigree. Chan Ho Park really interests me, but he may be playing himself out of contention at this point.

Sickles on Wade Davis

rglass44 — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 14:47:53 -0000

Sickles on Wade Davis

Sicles does a full profile on Davis. Nobody reads fanshots.

I hope this rosterbation didn't come early

rglass44 — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 17:39:06 -0000

The following is a table showing the players on the 40-man, their ages, contract status, and money owed. I've also included some guesses at possible arb. payouts and removed Aki's salary.

Player	Age	Years	2010 salary (Millions)	Buyout	Cost guess
Akinori Iwamura	2/9/1979	1*	4.25	0.25	0.25
Andy Sonnanstine	3/18/1983	1-	0.45		0.45
B.J. Upton	8/21/1984	arb1	0.435+		1.5
Ben Zobrist	5/26/1981	1-	0.45		0.45
Brian Shouse	9/26/1968	0			0
Carl Crawford	8/5/1981	1	10	1.25	10
Carlos Pena	5/17/1978	1	10.125		10.125
Chad Bradford	9/14/1974	0			0
Dale Thayer	12/17/1980	3-	0.45		0.45
Dan Wheeler	12/10/1977	1+1	3.5		3.5
David Price	8/26/1985	2-	1		1
Dioner Navarro	2/9/1984	arb2	2.1+		2.25
Elliot Johnson	3/9/1984	3-	0.45		0.45
Evan Longoria	10/7/1985	5+3	0.95		0.95
Fernando Perez	4/23/1983	3-	0.45		0.45
Gabe Gross	10/21/1979	arb2	1.255		1.255
Gabe Kapler	7/31/1975	0			0
Grant Balfour	12/30/1977	arb3	1.4		1.4
Gregg Zaun	4/14/1971	1*	2	0.5	2
J.P. Howell	4/25/1983	arb1	.4337+		1.5
Jake McGee	8/6/1986	3-	0.45		0.45
James Shields	12/20/1981	2+3	2.5		2.5
Jason Bartlett	10/30/1979	arb2	1.98125+		3
Jason Isringhausen	9/7/1972	0			0
Jeff Bennett	6/10/1980	arb1	.4375+		0.5
Jeff Niemann	2/28/1983	2-	0.45		0.45
John Jaso	9/19/1983	3-	0.45		0.45
Jose Lobaton	10/21/1984	3-	0.45		0.45
Justin Ruggiano	4/12/1982	3-	0.45		0.45
Lance Cormier	8/19/1980	arb2	0.675+		1
Matt Garza	11/26/1983	1-	0.45		0.45
Matt Joyce	8/3/1984	2-/3-	0.45		0.45
Mitch Talbot	10/17/1983	3-	0.45		0.45
Pat Burrell	10/10/1976	1	9		9
Randy Choate	9/5/1975	arb3	?		1
Reid Brignac	1/16/1986	3-	0.45		0.45
Russ Springer	11/7/1968	0			0
Sean Rodriguez	4/26/1985	3-	0.45		0.45
Shawn Riggans	7/25/1980	1-	0.45		0.45
Troy Percival	8/9/1969	0			0
Wade Davis	9/7/1985	3-	0.45		0.45
Willy Aybar	3/9/1983	1+1	1.35		1.35
pre-arb. Sum/guess-arb sum			54.98		61.73

Key:
1* is a 1-year option
arb1, arb2, arb3 are the first, second, third arb. years
1-, 2-, 3- is years until arb.

All the arb. numbers I just made some guesses. I have no idea how much the award will actually be, and I am not 100% on all the service times for figuring out arb.

Hope this makes sense. With my estimates for arb. opening day payrole will be in the neighborhood of last year's. If anyone has any issues with anything please point them out. I did this quickly and may have messed up something.

Rays Top 20 Preseason Prospects in Review

rglass44 — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 14:14:07 -0000

Rays Top 20 Preseason Prospects in Review

Sickles takes a look at how the Top 20 have fared this year.

The Rob Deer All-Stars

rglass44 — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 19:39:20 -0000

Inspired by Carlos Pena's extraordinary season where he's got as many homeruns as singles, I decided to look and see how players this year are stacking up to the great Rob Deer. Deer is remembered (as I'm sure most of you know) as the king of the three true outcomes. These are the strikeout, the walk, and the homerun. Generally, these are the scenarios on the baseball field that turn a team game into a one on one, mano y mano, matchup. Over the course of his career Deer struck out, walked, or homered in nearly half of his plate appearances (49.07% to be exact).Rather than just doing a list of who tops the list with the most 3TOs, I decided to make an All-Star team that fields both position players and pitchers.

Let's start with the sluggers:

Pos.	Player	Tm	Lg	G	PA	SO	BB	HR	3TO	3TO%
C	Kelly Shoppach	CLE	AL	69	261	79	25	10	114	43.68%
1B	Chris Davis	TEX	AL	77	277	114	17	15	146	52.71%
2B	Ian Stewart	COL	NL	116	384	98	40	19	157	40.89%
3B	Mark Reynolds	ARI	NL	121	518	170	61	38	269	51.93%
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	NL	117	478	91	58	23	172	35.98%
OF	Adam Dunn	WSN	NL	123	520	136	94	33	263	50.58%
OF	Jack Cust	OAK	AL	116	478	136	74	19	229	47.91%
OF	Jason Bay	BOS	AL	116	500	118	78	27	223	44.60%
DH	Jim Thome	CHW	AL	100	388	105	68	23	196	50.52%
BENCH	Carlos Pena	TBR	AL	121	513	148	79	34	261	50.88%
BENCH	Russell Branyan	SEA	AL	111	486	143	56	30	229	47.12%
BENCH	Chris Snyder	ARI	NL	61	202	47	32	6	85	42.08%
BENCH	Ben Zobrist	TBR	AL	115	444	81	70	22	173	40.42%

Good to see Carlos made the team, but suprisingly he isn't a starter. We see that there are an astounding 5 position players on the team that exceeded Deer's career number. None, though, bested his best single season mark when in 1991 playing with the Tigers Deer managed to 3TO 53.62% of the time (25 HR, 89 BB, and 175 K in 539 PA).

Here are the pitchers:

Pos.	Player	Tm	Lg	IP	BF	SO	BB	HR	3TO	3TO %
SP	Rich Harden	CHC	NL	118	500	138	50	21	209	41.80%
SP	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	NL	139.2	582	147	80	5	232	39.86%
SP	Jonathan Sanchez	SFG	NL	119.1	523	128	68	12	208	39.77%
SP	Yovani Gallardo	MIL	NL	159.1	671	171	76	18	265	39.49%
SP	Erik Bedard	SEA	AL	83	348	90	34	8	132	37.93%
Swingman	Chad Gaudin	SDP/NYY	ML	113	513	114	62	8	184	35.87%
MR	David Robertson	NYY	AL	36.1	160	53	21	3	77	48.13%
MR	Tyler Clippard	WSN	NL	34.2	136	42	18	5	65	47.79%
MR	Robinson Tejeda	KCR	AL	37.1	168	49	29	1	79	47.02%
MR	Daniel Bard	BOS	AL	37	159	48	16	4	68	42.77%
SU	Octavio Dotel	CHW	AL	48.2	211	61	33	4	98	46.45%
CL	Jonathan Broxton	LAD	NL	58	230	87	24	4	115	50.00%

A pretty impressive list. I'd wager that if you fielded this squad, you'd probably win more games than you lost. My two favorite types of players are the 3TO sluggers and uber-toolsy outfielders. Generally they don't coexist, but BJ Upton is trying his best to join the list this year. His problem, though, has been the lack of power. If I had broken the outfield positions down, I could have slid Mike Cameron in there at 41.63% and not missed a whole lot. He is, by the way, one of my all-time favorite players.

ETA: I realized I didn't have anyone who could pass at SS as the backup, so I added the best utility player (ZORILLA!).

SB Nation User Blog: rglass44

OTTOTD 12/11/09: The "F*** my f****** a****** right now!"

Quick and Dirty Look at the Projected Roster with Projections

lol Cool infield Sox.

Gregg Zaun says he may sign by the end of the day and one of the finalists are the Rays.

Players such as Fontenot earn Super Two status and get an early start on arbitration, which can...

Free Agent Relief Pitcher Market

Sickles on Wade Davis

Sickles on Wade Davis

I hope this rosterbation didn't come early

Rays Top 20 Preseason Prospects in Review

Rays Top 20 Preseason Prospects in Review

The Rob Deer All-Stars

OTTOTD 12/11/09: The "F* my f a** right now!"