SB Nation User Blog: rglass44

Yanks decline arb on Abreu

rglass44 — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 00:30:04 -0000

Yanks decline arb on Abreu

Color me surprised. I'm sure Abreu psyched because they may make him an additional few million. That bumps him up on my list of FA DHs.

Player Review: Grant Balfour

rglass44 — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 15:32:07 -0000

As if Joey Gathright for JP Howell wasn't a big enough steal, the Rays pulled off the small trade of the year in 2007 when they got Grant Balfour from Milwaukee for much-maligned starter/reliever Seth McClung. Since the trade, Grant Balfour has run circles around McClung on the field. This year Grant Balfour had a tRA of 2.08 in the bigs and .80 in AAA Durham. Seth McClung, on the other hand, had a tRA of 4.61. Grant Balfour played a huge role in ensuring the Rays win games.

Grant Balfour had a WPA of 2.69. He did this without being on the team for the first 50 games. He was arguably one of the three best relievers in baseball. He was third in tRA for relievers with more than 50 IP. His rate stats illustrate his dominance. Despite throwing his fastball 91.63% of the time, he struck out 12.65 per 9 IP and gave up .46 HR/9. He did walk a few batters (3.70/9 IP), but his tremendous ability to miss bats kept him from getting burnt by it.

All in all, Balfour was great this year. He was the best pitcher on the staff. If he had been there all year, then I have little doubt he would have been the team MVP (at least in my eyes) and led us to a win or two more. The intense Aussie dominated this year, and I hope he comes close to matching it next year. One would think that would be tough since he is primarily a one-pitch pitcher. Jonathon Papelbon and Mariano Rivera, the two relievers that finished ahead of Balfour in tRA, are essentially one-pitch pitchers as well. Rivera throws his cutter 82% of the time, and Papelbon throws his fastball 82% of the time. So, if Balfour could work off his slider just a little bit more, then he might be able to sustain this kind of production into the future.

Player Review: JP Howell

rglass44 — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 14:23:44 -0000

JP Howell is my team MVP. Some may find this strange, some may disagree, and some may think I'm crazy. Why is JP Howell the MVP? Why is a middle reliever with 3 saves and 2 blown saves the MVP? Because, in my opinion, he was one of the 2 or 3 players that added the most wins to this team while embodying the biggest part of the team metamorphosis from 67 game winner to 97 game winner.

via msn.foxsports.com

In 2007, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays had the worst bullpen in baseball. Baseball Prospectus even went as far to say that the bullpen cost the team 10 wins. 10 wins! They claimed it was the worst bullpen in their entire database (since 1959), and no other team came within 15 runs of that abomination (link). A league average bullpen, in theory, would have made the Devil Rays a 77 win team in 2007.

This year, however, was another story. The bullpen, anchored by Howell and Balfour, was probably the best in baseball. The Rays bullpen had the highest WPA of any team (9.30). In ERA and WHIP (granted these are not great measures of a bullpen) they finished 5th and second, respectively. The bullpen had the highest WXRL of any team in baseball. Different statistics give you different results, but I would take the bullpen with the highest WPA any day of the week.

Back to JP. I contend that JP Howell had the biggest effect on the bullpen's growth from worst (ever) to first and, in turn, the team's same turnaround. He had the highest WPA of any pitcher on the team (3.33), he was number one among non-closers in the AL in WPA, he led the bullpen in innings pitched, he led the bullpen in strike-outs, he was second in tRA (3.68), and he was third in appearances.

JP Howell was Maddon's go to guy at out of the bullpen. He could come in to face the tough lefty or to get four or even six outs in high-intensity situations. He embodied the bullpen by committee that worked so well for this team. Why was JP so much more successful than previous years as a starter?

Coming out of the bullpen allowed Howell to leave it all on the mound. His fastball jumped from 82-83 MPH on average to 86-87 on average. His slider, changeup, and cutter added a few ticks on the radar gun as well. He started to throw more curveballs (from 17% of the time last year to 25%) and sliders (from 5.9% to 11.6%) sacrificing his changeup (from 23% to 12%). This change in approach is probably due mainly to his facing more lefties than ever, but also somewhat his "devil may care" approach out of the bullpen.

As a result of his increased velocity and change in approach, JP got more swinging strikes than ever (from around 20% to 26% this year). This increased his K/9 to a career high of 9.27 from 6.69, 7.02, and 8.65 in his previous stints in the bigs. His HR/9 also dipped down to .60, which was a considerable drop from his 1.41 from last year. While his walk rate was right around his career norms, it hurts a lot less to walk people out of the bullpen than it does as a starter.

JP Howell was great this year. He was the second best pitcher in our bullpen. He pitched 89 1/3 innings in what was primarily crunch time. He added more to the effort to win games than anyone on the team, but Carlos Pena. All of these things contributed greatly to the Rays historic turnaround. All of these things exhibited the historic turnaround in the bullpen. In my opinion, all of these things made him the most valuable player to the Rays success this year. Not to mention the fact that he seems like the coolest dude on the team.

JP, this bud's for you!

Player Review: AKI AKI

rglass44 — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 19:03:41 -0000

Akinori Iwamura's most beneficial move to the team this year was learning to play 2B. By doing that, the Rays were able to use Longoria at third and keep Aki's contribution. Last year, the Rays 2B were BJ Upton (48 games), Brendan Harris (45), Ty Wigginton (39), Josh Wilson (21), Jorge Velandia (11), Jorge Cantu (1), and Aki (1). This 2B platoon provided a good bat (.296/.350/.485/.835), but a horrible glove (-15 runs). Aki, on the other hand, was about average defensively (.1 runs) and about average defensively (wOBA of .338 and wOBA+ of 101). In other words, Aki was pretty much a hair better than average.

Aki's slash-line of .274/.349/.380 may not be near as good as the 2B platoon the Rays had last year, but it is in line with what the average AL 2B produced at the plate this year (.282 /339/.410). This kind of production coupled with his glovework made him the Rays fifth most valuable position player this year (TV of 27 R).

Another aspect of Aki's game that added value was his ability to see a lot of pitches.He ranked first on the team and ninth in the AL in pitches seen per plate appearance. Like Upton, Aki rarely goes out of the zone (18.2%, 7th in the AL).

All in all, AKi had a good year. He was solid at 2B, playing in all but 10 games, and at the plate. He saw a lot of pitches out of the leadoff spot, which supposedly helps his teammates in letting them get a look at the pitcher. Aki is looking like a tremendous steal at about $4 million per year (with the posting and club option). That kind of money for an average up-the-middle player is very nice. Throw in the fact that he increases the team's international appeal and the liklihood that his 2B skills improve, and he is a great bargain.

Dioner Navarro: The worst baserunner in baseball

rglass44 — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 18:20:14 -0000

Dioner Navarro: The worst baserunner in baseball

Rich Lederer takes a look at Bill James' baserunning section in the 2009 Bill James Handbook. Navarro rates as the worst. Pretty interesting write up, too.

Player Review: Ben Zobrist

rglass44 — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 19:55:02 -0000

Last year was the best year of Ben Zobrist's professional career. Not only did he tear it up in Durham to the tune of .366/.471/.577/1.048 (wOBA of 135) in 20 games (making it impossible for the Rays to keep him in AAA), but also had his most successful tenure in the bigs. Zobrist was very, very good in his 62 games with the big club this summer; his slash line was .253/.339/.505/.844 with 12 HRs. He was third on the team in wOBA (.367) of all players with more than 200 PAs.

So, the question is "Why was Zobrist so much more effective this year, than in years past?" Well, the simple answer is a lot more of his fly-balls left the yard. In his two previous big league stints (52 and 31 games, respectively), Zobrist's HR/FB% were 4.3% and 3.6%. This year his HR/FB% was 17.4%. He essentially went from Jason Bartlett territory to Evan Longoria. Is this change legit? Looking at Zobrist this year, he did look bigger. He looked stronger. How much difference can we expect that to make, though?

Another reason why Zobrist was more successful was he exhibited the patience that made me like him as a minor leaguer when we traded for him. His BB-rate had never been below 12% in the minors, and it was 3% and 5.2% during his two previous times up. This year it was a more typical 11.2%. He swung at less pitches out of the zone (17.8% versus 26.7 and 23.3%) and swung at more pitches in the zone (61.8% against 59.7% and 60.9%). As a result, he made more contact and firmer contact.

So, Zobrist's great year was a mix of some-part luck and some-part improvement or skill. The question we will likely have answered in the future is "How much was each?"

The Free Agent DH Market

rglass44 — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 03:25:06 -0000

In a little under an hour, the MLB Free Agency period will begin. Amidst the millions and millions and years and years of contracts, (hopefully) one lucky fellow will be called upon to serve in the Rays army as the designated batsman. After taking a look at the players available in the market, I put together a list of "DHs" and their respective Bill James' projections. I also added wOBA, so RJ doesn't beat me over the head for not using properly sanctioned statistics.

Here's a table showing the projections sorted in descending order by wOBA:

Player	Age	Type	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	OBP	Slg	OPS	wOBA
Ramirez, Manny	36	A	150	552	166	34	34	95	113	88	125	.301	.404	.551	.955	.407
Dunn, Adam	29	A	159	562	138	30	42	100	103	122	183	.246	.386	.527	.913	.390
Bradley, Milton	30	B	123	442	127	27	20	72	68	70	108	.287	.391	.489	.879	.382
Burrell, Pat	32		157	537	136	29	32	78	98	104	145	.253	.377	.490	.867	.377
Giambi, Jason	37		136	446	109	20	29	70	86	89	113	.244	.388	.484	.873	.373
Abreu, Bobby	34	A	159	604	173	41	19	104	100	98	125	.286	.389	.455	.844	.372
Griffey, Ken	38	B	127	412	105	21	20	57	64	58	81	.255	.351	.451	.802	.350
Thomas, Frank	40	B	111	349	85	14	17	41	56	58	75	.244	.358	.430	.787	.346
Ibanez, Raul	36	A	159	623	173	36	22	84	100	60	111	.278	.343	.448	.791	.345
Rivera, Juan	30		99	317	89	20	13	40	52	21	41	.281	.327	.467	.794	.342
Floyd, Cliff	35		81	256	67	14	11	36	38	29	55	.262	.353	.445	.798	.342
Garciaparra, Nomar	35		76	179	51	10	6	25	28	13	16	.285	.344	.453	.796	.342
Baldelli, Rocco	27		103	312	87	18	12	47	44	20	64	.279	.330	.465	.795	.340
Kent, Jeff	40	A	140	519	143	31	17	64	78	48	74	.276	.344	.437	.781	.339
Gonzalez, Luis	41	B	125	313	81	20	9	40	42	42	41	.259	.354	.415	.769	.338
Casey, Sean	34		92	195	57	12	3	22	24	17	21	.292	.361	.400	.761	.334
Hinske, Eric	31		123	339	83	21	14	51	47	41	84	.245	.332	.437	.768	.333
Millar, Kevin	37		129	407	103	23	14	53	55	52	77	.253	.348	.413	.760	.333
Blake, Casey	35	B	110	336	87	20	12	45	44	31	77	.259	.336	.432	.768	.329
Anderson, Garret	36	B	140	525	148	30	16	62	83	28	79	.282	.318	.434	.753	.327
Norton, Greg	36		115	162	40	8	5	20	22	23	41	.247	.341	.389	.729	.327
Ward, Daryle	33		99	176	44	11	6	18	28	19	36	.250	.327	.415	.741	.325
Loretta, Mark	37	A	90	245	69	13	3	28	25	23	26	.282	.355	.371	.727	.322
Clark, Tony	36		92	152	35	7	7	17	26	19	49	.230	.320	.414	.734	.321
Aurilia, Rich	37		114	335	90	18	9	39	41	25	49	.269	.323	.409	.732	.320
Boone, Aaron	35		86	204	49	10	6	25	26	16	43	.240	.317	.377	.695	.297

Obviously, some of these guys will cost more than others, as well as be more desirable than others. So, let's take a look at a few that I think would be good signs (for whatever that's worth).

Adam Dunn/Milton Bradley: These two players are the best we could hope to afford. They are very similar in that they both have a perceived negative value due to "attitude" or "character" issues. Additionally, both can play the field but shouldn't. Dunn's horrid defense and Bradley's injury issues should force them both into DH roles. Maybe their predetermined roles, coupled with their "character flaws," could land them in the Bay area for a discount. Both are on-base machines that could really add some pop to the lineup. Bradley is preferred, though, because of his status as a Type B free agent.
Giambi/Thomas: These two old sluggers should never, ever see the field for any team of the living. They both man the easiest position in baseball like the undead at this point, and they have definitely seen better days. They are both power bats with great eyes. If they can give us 120 games you can expect an OBP approaching .380 with 30 bombs. I love Giambi for the fact that he is a type B.
Juan Rivera/Raul Ibanez: These two soon-to-be-former-AL-West-Rivals are both butchers in the field (notice a theme). Neither get on base like the aforementioned sluggers, but they do hit for power and SHOULD hit for decent averages. Ibanez will likely net a bigger contract when some foolish team thinks he can play RF (cough..Mets..cough). He's also a Type A, and older, so I am really warming up to Rivera.
ATTENTION BARGAIN SHOPPERS (Blake, Millar, Casey, Kent, Norton, etc.): These players all have flaws. That's why they'll likely be cheap. One of them, however, may be the F.A.T. that RJ so dearly craves. A few are type A, so I'd stay away from them, but there may be some real value here.
Everyone else that I did not notice or think worthy to mention may also come into play. I might have mentioned Hinske last year, but probably not. Pena the year before? Doubtful. So who knows what F.A.T. the RFO may bring in that will seem unexciting at first? Who knows, they may win a Silver Slugger a la Pena two years ago.

Let's discuss, and count the names as they get signed up!

Swisher to Yanks

rglass44 — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 20:48:08 -0000

Swisher to Yanks

You have got to be kidding me. This is redic. We could have given them less than Talbot for him?

Marquez last year as a 24 YO in AAA. 3.68/1.49 K/BB, 4.85 tRA*.

This sucks.

BA's Top 10

rglass44 — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 16:16:46 -0000

BA's Top 10

Not a lot of surprises with 7 of 10 being pitchers.

Player Review: M-V-P M-V-P M-V-P

rglass44 — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 14:57:29 -0000

According to the Tampa Bay chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America, Jason Bartlett was the Most Valuable Player of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008. According to most everyone else, he wasn't. Justin Inaz's Total Value Listing has him as the sixth most valuable... position player. Joe Posnaski detailed the case against him quite effortlessly here. So, what in the world did the local baseball media that no one else did?

Since I am not a mind-reader, I decided to look at the stats instead (I am far more adept at reading them then tealeaves, minds, or anything else of the psychic variety). Taking a look at Bartlett's year does not inspire great confidence in a team where he is the most valuable player.

At the plate he did not exactly set the world on fire. His slash line was .286/.329/.361/.690. The average AL short-stop posted a .266/.319/.375/.694. So, he was somewhere from average to below-average there. His wOBA was .318, good for a wOBA+ of 95. That is below-average. Over 600 PAs he would be worth -9.8 runs below average. These don't seem like MVP numbers.

When acquired from Minesota, Bartlett was considered a wizz with the glove who would not kill you at the dish. Well, he certainly didn't light it up at the plate, but he definitely did not seem to kill us with his bat. "How was his glovework?" you may ask. Well, according to every defensive metric I could find, it rates somewhere from average to below average. Sean Smith's Averaged Zone Rating Runs from STATS and BIS had him at +.2 runs, about average. He ranked 12th in the Probabilistic Model of Range on BaseballMusings.com. He ranked 19th for short-stops in the Fielding Bible's new rankings (down from 5 and 7 the two previos years).

Looking at Jason Bartlett's 2008, it is very, very hard to see why he was annointed team MVP. The difference between JoePos and others who grilled this selection and the TB BBWAA is the baggage involved at the SS position in Tampa Bay. This is the only explanation I can give for the selection.

Last year, for instance, the Rays trotted out five players to play short-stop: Josh Wilson, Brendan Harris, Ben Zobrist, Jorge Velandia, and Joel Guzman. This year that fearsome fivesome has started a total of 90 games at SS in the bigs, and three of them did not receive a big-league at bat. Perhaps they weren't big league short-stops last year.

Last year, the 5 of them rated out as one of the worst defensive short-stop groups in baseball. They were -18 in Sean Smith's Averaged Zone Rating Runs from STATS and BIS. Throw in the fact that they were as bad per 600 PAs as Bartlett (-9.67 RAA), and you can see just how bad this unit was. The SS position last year for the Devil Rays was worth about -30 runs. This year it was worth -9.6 runs. That is a huge increase.

This is the only explanation I can give for Jason Bartlett as team MVP. The other candidates were all here last year (and mainly put up better numbers) except Longoria. The upgrade from Aki to Longo was probably bigger, but not in the eyes of the TB BBWAA. I think they saw Bartlett as the symbol of the changing of the guard in Tampa Bay.