SB Nation User Blog: rglass44

Checking in with the pitching on the farm... part 2

rglass44 — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:11:19 -0000

Charlotte
Player	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	HR	HB	BB	SO	WHIP	FIP
Matthew Gorgen	3	0	0.72	22	0	10	37.6	19	4	1	2	13	47	0.85	2.24
Rayner Oliveros	1	0	1.24	11	1	0	29	17	4	1	2	5	30	0.76	2.3
Justin Garcia	5	2	4.25	21	0	1	36	30	18	2	0	8	36	1.06	2.59
Darin Downs	7	3	2.23	13	13	0	76.6	80	26	5	2	11	75	1.19	2.6
David Newmann	3	3	3.27	12	12	0	63.3	47	27	2	5	26	71	1.15	2.84
Alexander Cobb	4	4	3.3	15	15	0	73.6	77	32	5	5	15	68	1.25	3.05
Tommy Rafferty	0	1	2.77	7	0	0	13	8	6	1	0	5	13	1	3.35
Paul Phillips	2	1	3.33	18	0	2	27	27	12	2	2	10	27	1.37	3.5
Kevin Boggan	0	3	4.28	17	0	0	27.3	36	18	3	1	6	25	1.54	3.57
Jeremy Hall	8	4	4.19	14	14	0	73	76	40	7	5	16	56	1.26	3.78
Brian Flores	0	3	6.49	18	1	1	34.6	41	28	2	0	16	20	1.64	4.18
Austin Hinkle	1	2	3.06	19	0	5	35.3	29	15	5	2	15	34	1.25	4.56
Jesse Darcy	2	6	5.32	13	13	0	69.3	89	47	10	3	12	28	1.46	4.92
Jose Angel Mejias	1	2	8.38	9	3	0	19.3	28	22	6	1	3	16	1.6	6.21

Bowling Green
Player	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	HR	HB	BB	SO	WHIP	FIP
Josh Satow	1	0	2.83	24	0	9	35	30	11	0	1	7	42	1.06	1.49
Joseph Cruz	3	3	3.02	11	11	0	50.6	54	23	3	1	12	56	1.3	2.53
Matthew Moore	4	3	3.14	14	14	0	63	39	27	3	3	42	93	1.29	3.01
Marquis Fleming	1	3	1.38	22	0	2	32.6	30	11	1	1	10	24	1.22	3.14
Nick Barnese	2	1	1.64	5	5	0	22	16	5	1	3	3	16	0.86	3.15
Tommy Rafferty	2	0	3.9	15	0	1	27.6	29	14	1	2	8	22	1.34	3.16
Neil Schenk	1	2	4.28	21	2	0	40	50	27	3	2	11	37	1.53	3.3
Shane Dyer	1	6	5.07	13	13	0	65.6	76	41	2	10	17	45	1.42	3.46
Tyree Hayes	4	3	4.76	19	1	0	45.3	53	26	5	2	16	46	1.52	3.8
Michael Jarman	4	5	3.24	12	8	0	50	49	30	5	1	13	37	1.24	3.86
Chris Andujar	8	2	2.64	17	7	0	61.3	54	23	4	1	19	33	1.19	3.95
Frank De Los Santos	3	6	4.19	14	14	0	68.6	74	40	5	3	25	44	1.44	4.09
Jamie Bagley	1	3	6.03	23	0	8	37.3	39	27	3	1	15	25	1.45	4.19
Diego Echeverria	2	1	8.53	16	0	0	31.6	42	38	4	3	17	23	1.86	5.29

Checking in with the pitching on the farm... part 1

rglass44 — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:07:29 -0000

Hudson Valley
Player	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	HR	HB	BB	SO	WHIP	FIP
Aaron Dott	0	1	4.32	2	2	0	8.3	8	7	0	0	0	9	0.96	1.03
Richard De Los Santos	0	0	0	3	0	3	4	1	0	0	0	0	4	0.25	1.2
Zachary Quate	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	1.2
Daniel April	0	0	0

Durham
Player	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	HR	HB	BB	SO	WHIP	FIP
Winston Abreu	3	0	1.41	23	0	10	32	14	5	1	0	10	49	0.75	1.48
Randy Choate	3	0	3.72	21	0	0	19.3	16	8	0	0	9	15	1.29	3.04
Dale Thayer	0	3	1.72	29	0	11	36.6	28	15	1	1	12	24	1.09	3.31
Wade Davis	7	4	2.9	16	16	0	90	80	37	5	2	35	75	1.28	3.49
Mitch Talbot	4	4	4.47	10	10	0	54.3	67	29	3	2	18	40	1.56	3.55
Joe Bateman	4	1	4.3	21	0	0	29.3	15	14	0	5	20	29	1.19	3.78
Jason Cromer	1	2	1.18	7	6	0	38	21	5	3	2	12	25	0.87	4.02
Carlos Hernandez	5	4	3.63	15	15	0	84.3	79	37	7	3	32	62	1.32	4.05
Calvin Medlock	1	0	2.93	7	0	0	15.3	13	7	1	2	4	8	1.11	4.18
Julio DePaula	1	3	4.27	27	1	1	46.3	51	27	4	4	23	34	1.6	4.6
Dewon Day	3	1	4.76	22	0	1	28.3	35	19	3	0	15	21	1.76	4.68
David Price	1	4	3.93	8	8	0	34.3	28	20	5	1	18	35	1.34	4.72
Chad Orvella	0	1	6.12	19	0	0	32.3	36	22	5	0	11	24	1.45	4.75
Jason Childers	6	2	4.88	30	1	0	48	52	26	8	0	17	33	1.44	5.05
Matt DeSalvo	0	1	5.2	7	7	0	36.3	31	21	3	1	24	23	1.51	5.07
James Houser	4	4	5.23	13	13	0	62	65	41	7	7	42	36	1.73	5.88

Montgomery
Player	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	HR	HB	BB	SO	WHIP	FIP
Jeremy Hellickson	2	1	2.08	8	8	0	39	28	9	1	1	9	48	0.95	1.84
Paul Phillips	2	0	0	9	0	2	11	3	0	0	0	3	7	0.55	2.75
Brian Baker	4	1	3.13	19	6	0	54.6	54	19	3	1	16	49	1.28	3.05
Heath Rollins	7	6	3.66	16	16	0	93.3	93	42	4	6	24	59	1.25	3.46
Rayner Oliveros	2	0	4.44	9	2	1	24.3	21	12	2	2	9	24	1.23	3.65
Calvin Medlock	0	1	3.52	23	0	13	30.6	23	13	6	1	4	37	0.88	3.82
Eduardo Morlan	3	3	2.68	29	0	4	40.3	37	14	3	2	17	35	1.34	3.85
Brandon Mann	4	4	4.82	16	10	1	65.3	66	40	3	2	27	37	1.42	4
Jason Cromer	4	3	5.01	8	8	0	41.3	53	28	3	3	9	21	1.5	4
Chris Mason	3	4	6.08	21	3	0	47.3	63	38	4	1	19	29	1.73	4.34
Ryan Reid	0	1	4.85	21	0	0	29.6	34	21	1	1	20	20	1.82	4.42
Neal Frontz	1	0	5.21	30	0	1	46.6	48	27	5	2	23	35	1.52	4.7
Michael Wlodarczyk	0	3	7.13	27	0	5	35.3	38	29	2	3	22	23	1.7	4.76
Ryan Morse	2	6	5.59	16	11	0	56.3	62	38	7	1	31	32	1.65	5.38
Aneury Rodriguez	4	8	6.27	15	15	0	70.3	67	52	11	5	39	58	1.51	5.46

Some HV notes:

rglass44 — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 17:35:00 -0000

Over the weekend the Rays SS A-ball team got started. Some performances of note from over the weekend:

Bats
	Team	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	RBI	K
Nommenson, B	HV	9	2	3	1		1			2
Otero, E.	HV	9	1	2						3
Bortnick, T.	HV	4	0	1	1					2

Pitchers
	Team	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
Suarez, A.	HV	5	6	2	2	2	2	1
Lobstein, K.	HV	4.3	5	4	4	4	3
Quate, Z.	HV	1	2	1	0	0	0	0

Beckham of late

rglass44 — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 14:50:44 -0000

Here's a look at how Beckham has fared this year at the plate. First we have the entire season, and then a couple of stretches recently where he's beed particularly good.

timeframe	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	R	RBI	SB	CS	wOBA	K/BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Season	218	64	15	2	3	20	52	27	33	3	6	.348	2.60	.294	.361	.422	.783
2-May	146	44	12	2	2	17	32	18	24	3	5	.369	1.88	.301	.382	.452	.834
16-May	100	30	9	0	1	16	20	14	10	2	3	.374	1.25	.300	.407	.420	.827
18-May	92	28	9	0	1	12	18	12	10	2	2	.372	1.50	.304	.396	.435	.831

I'm getting excited.

More on Sonnanstine and "hittable"

rglass44 — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 15:53:41 -0000

Inspired by FreeZorilla's great post, I decided to delve into the data just a bit deeper. So I collected all pitcher seasosn from 2002-2008, and compiled every pitchers batted ball data who pitched at least 300 innings over that time frame. From there I took a look at what their BABIPs were, and how their xBABIP (for this purpose it is figured the same way he did it but I used a rough mean of his 2008/2009 figures) compared. This, in a sense, is a measure of how "hittable" a pitcher is.

My sample contained 322 players, of which there are 8 current Rays and Edwin Jackson. Here is how they fared compared to the grand total of all pitchers who pitched from 2002-2008.

Rank	Player	IP	LD%	GB%	FB%	BABIP	xBABIP	Diff
2	Andy Sonnanstine	323.3	17%	41%	42%	.319	.283	0.03576
4	Scott Kazmir	721.6	18%	40%	42%	.317	.288	0.02963
9	Edwin Jackson	454.6	20%	42%	38%	.321	.299	0.02139
16	Matt Garza	317.2	18%	42%	39%	.308	.291	0.01724
40	James Shields	554.2	18%	44%	38%	.301	.290	0.01174
113	Lance Cormier	313.8	22%	51%	27%	.321	.318	0.00283
194	Dan Wheeler	400.5	19%	37%	44%	.284	.289	-0.00567
317	Brian Shouse	308.8	22%	56%	22%	.293	.324	-0.03084
320	Jason Isringhausen	406.6	19%	47%	34%	.266	.299	-0.03295
	Grand Total	299093	20%	44%	36%	.301	.303	-0.00185

Looking at the table, very few Rays that have been with the team for much of these innings fared well. This didn't suprise me when looking back at the defense the Devil Rays had for so many years. Unfortunately, we don't know how much this (or the turf) plays on a pitcher's "hittability." Sonnanstine doesn't fare well, but neither does Kaz (and nooone talks about him being "hittable"). It will be interesting to see how the improved team defense has a role in helping these pitchers out, and if Sonny keeps being "hittable."

I have a ton of data, so feel free to ask any questions you may have.

What PEDs did Jim Rice use from 1977-1979 (and maybe 1983)?

rglass44 — Fri, 08 May 2009 19:10:27 -0000

The steroid hot topic got me thinking (I know that's dangerous), but what was it from 1977-1979 that made Jim Rice so much better than the rest of his career?

Here are his stats for that time period versus the rest of his career:

Year	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	IBB
3 years "juicing"	160	647	114	207	31	12	41	128	7	56	114	.320	.375	.596	.972	7
"clean" years	139	546	80	160	24	4	23	93	3	44	94	.294	.347	.478	.826	5

So he hit for more power hitting nearly twice as many bombs. His BA was up over 25 points. He had ZOMG MORE RBIs. He was considerably more "feared" considering they gave him 40% more intentional passes.

So what steroid did Jim Rice have that gave him this extra pop?I just don't get it. I thought PEDs were only a problem today, so how can one explain these seeming outliers?

*A couple of notes:

I did not include his first and last seasons since they were both less than 100 games (and bad), and I didn't want to skew the numbers.

I didn't include GIDPs because at least he got the ball in play rather than striking out.

Movin' to the Pen; Are Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine Better Off In Relief?

rglass44 — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 21:04:44 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Is starter Andy Sonnanstine the Rays best option to move to the bullpen going forward? (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

Browse more photos »

Upon reading Sean Smith's new post about the effect moving to the pen has on starting pitchers (h/t RJ), I decided to see how three of the most likely candidates to join the Rays pen would look as relievers. With the impending arrival of at least David Price (and maybe Wade Davis) and the hopeful goodbye to Troy Percival, there will be some open spots in the Rays bullpen. I would assume that to make room in the rotation one of Andy Sonnanstine or Jeff Niemann would make the move to the pen, and the possibility that Mitch Talbot could come up to jettison one of the underperforming members of the bullpen.

Follow the link to see how each of the three's stats from 2007-2009 as starters translate to their possible move to the pen.

Let's first start with the factors Smith finds on each pitcher's relevant statistics:

BB .99
SO 1.15
HR .87
HBIP .95

So a SP that moves to the bullpen can expect his BBs to decrease by 1%, his SOs increase by 15%, etc.

With this in mind, let's take a look at how each of the three's numbers change with a move to the bullpen.

Niemann
Raw	IP	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	K	aBB	aIBB	aHBP	aK	FIP	aFIP	Diff
2007 (AAA)	131	13	46	1	9	123	45.54	1	8.55	141.45	3.85	3.38	0.47
2008 (AAA)	133	15	50	0	6	128	49.5	0	5.7	147.2	4.00	3.51	0.50
2008 (MLB)	16	3	8	0	5	14	7.92	0	4.75	16.1	6.33	5.68	0.64
2009 (MLB)	16.6	3	7	0	1	9	6.93	0	0.95	10.35	5.91	5.42	0.49
	296.6	34	111	1	21	274	109.89	1	19.95	315.1	4.17	3.67	0.49

Sonnanstine
Raw	IP	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	K	aBB	aIBB	aHBP	aK	FIP	aFIP
2007 (AAA)	71	8	13	0	2	66	12.87	0	1.9	75.9	3.44	2.96	0.48
2007 (MLB)	130.6	18	26	2	5	97	25.74	2	4.75	111.55	4.17	3.70	0.47
2008 (MLB)	193.3	21	37	2	5	124	36.63	2	4.75	142.6	3.95	3.56	0.39
2009 (MLB)	15.6	1	6	1	1	12	5.94	1	0.95	13.8	3.65	3.29	0.36
	410.5	48	82	5	13	299	81.18	5	12.35	343.85	3.92	3.49	0.43

Talbot
Raw	IP	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	K	aBB	aIBB	aHBP	aK	FIP	aFIP
2007 (AAA)	161	13	59	0	10	124	58.41	0	9.5	142.6	4.00	3.61	0.39
2008 (AAA)	161	9	35	0	11	141	34.65	0	10.45	162.15	3.03	2.66	0.37
2008 (MLB)	9.6	3	11	0	1	5	10.89	0	0.95	5.75	9.97	9.24	0.73
2009 (AAA)	15	0	4	0	0	10	3.96	0	0	11.5	2.67	2.46	0.21
	346.6	25	109	0	22	280	107.91	0	20.9	322	3.66	3.27	0.38

Since some of those are AAA innings, I decided to use Minorleaguesplits.com's MLEs to see how they compared. Somehow, they had different numbers for IP and stats for all of them. I know they are not right, but I am assuming they included MILB playoffs.

Niemann
Adjusted	IP	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	K	aBB	aIBB	aHBP	aK	FIP	aFIP
2007 (AAA)	143.7	18	67	1	9	116	66.33	1	8.55	133.4	4.78	4.30	0.48
2008 (AAA)	133.3	18	67	0	6	107	66.33	0	5.7	123.05	4.99	4.50	0.49
2008 (MLB)	16	3	8	0	5	14	7.92	0	4.75	16.1	6.33	5.68	0.64
2009 (MLB)	16.6	3	7	0	1	9	6.93	0	0.95	10.35	5.91	5.42	0.49
	309.6	42	149	1	21	246	147.51	1	19.95	282.9	5.01	4.52	0.49

Sonnanstine
Adjusted	IP	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	K	aBB	aIBB	aHBP	aK	FIP	aFIP
2007 (AAA)	67.7	6	13	0	2	65	12.87	0	1.9	74.75	3.10	2.65	0.45
2007 (MLB)	130.6	18	26	2	5	97	25.74	2	4.75	111.55	4.17	3.70	0.47
2008 (MLB)	193.3	21	37	2	5	124	36.63	2	4.75	142.6	3.95	3.56	0.39
2009 (MLB)	15.6	1	6	1	1	12	5.94	1	0.95	13.8	3.65	3.29	0.36
	407.2	46	82	5	13	298	81.18	5	12.35	342.7	3.87	3.45	0.42

Talbot
Adjusted	IP	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	K	aBB	aIBB	aHBP	aK	FIP	aFIP
2007 (AAA)	173.3	19	88	0	10	112	87.12	0	9.5	128.8	5.03	4.63	0.40
2008 (AAA)	163.3	9	67	0	11	121	66.33	0	10.45	139.15	3.87	3.53	0.34
2008 (MLB)	9.6	3	11	0	1	5	10.89	0	0.95	5.75	9.97	9.24	0.73
2009 (AAA)	16	0	5	0	0	8	4.95	0	0	9.2	3.14	2.98	0.16
	362.2	31	171	0	22	246	169.29	0	20.9	282.9	4.55	4.18	0.37

As you can see, Niemann benefits the most from a move to the pen. You really can't go wrong no matter what though, except keeping crappy relievers I guess.

Which game should I go to?

rglass44 — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 13:08:53 -0000

So I am going to Winston-Salem and Hickory this weekend, and I had planned to go to the Crawdads game on Saturday evening. I found out (thanks to Kinslerhomer) that Cliff Springston is going. I had originally thought it would be Martin Perez, but I can't count.

So should I go see the WInston-Salem Dash take on the Wilmington Blue Rocks Sunday or the Hickory Crawdads take on the Kannapolis Intimidators Saturday?

Help please, and I promise I will report back on what I saw (I am leaning toward Saturday because I'll have to make a 5 hour drive Sunday but the better prospects seem to be going Sunday).

Fielding Independent Hitting

rglass44 — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 19:26:19 -0000

OK, so based on FreeZorilla's comment in the pitcher thread I figured team-by-team FIH for each team thus far.

A note about the process:

FIP= (((13*HR)+(3*(BB-IBB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP)+3.2

Since you can't really get IP for a team's hitters, I took AB-H+GIDP for outs. Then I used 3*Outs for IP.

Here are the results:

Team	AB	H	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	SO	GDP	Outs	FIH
Indians	492	138	24	76	3	10	121	14	368	5.80
Cubs	412	107	16	63	2	8	87	9	314	5.50
Rangers	455	127	26	41	1	5	110	7	335	5.47
Yankees	481	128	21	56	2	5	90	12	365	5.42
Blue Jays	540	155	23	60	3	2	91	15	400	5.41
Cardinals	477	139	17	65	5	5	80	12	350	5.39
Phillies	414	115	16	43	1	3	63	9	308	5.31
Dodgers	477	142	16	73	8	5	88	16	351	5.27
White Sox	439	117	18	50	1	6	93	11	333	5.12
Orioles	481	132	13	65	3	3	82	9	358	4.88
Red Sox	451	121	15	56	6	6	86	12	342	4.88
Rockies	437	106	19	47	1	5	109	7	338	4.82
Tigers	444	124	14	50	3	7	83	13	333	4.80
Braves	464	123	14	48	3	5	76	12	353	4.73
Brewers	424	98	16	49	3	9	102	10	336	4.71
Rays	480	125	20	47	1	3	119	7	362	4.60
Padres	463	125	15	53	3	0	96	6	344	4.53
Astros	458	118	12	50	1	2	82	11	351	4.44
Royals	432	109	14	43	2	8	99	12	335	4.37
Marlins	486	125	16	53	4	5	117	11	372	4.30
Mets	436	125	9	57	7	2	78	12	323	4.29
Diamondbacks	458	104	16	40	3	3	102	6	360	4.23
Nationals	460	124	12	61	3	4	121	9	345	4.07
Reds	404	87	9	56	2	6	104	10	327	4.02
Pirates	474	126	13	43	4	3	101	7	355	3.99
Angels	439	112	9	43	5	2	77	6	333	3.95
Mariners	454	115	9	32	2	3	75	17	356	3.76
Twins	476	125	9	42	2	2	91	8	359	3.71
Athletics	464	110	3	43	0	7	84	5	359	3.38
Giants	412	101	7	31	3	5	108	15	326	2.96

BTW, I would have been done with this forever ago but my comp froze.

Who Is This Guy?

rglass44 — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 14:14:18 -0000

via mlb.mlb.com

That, my friends, is Dale Thayer. The career minor league closer is looking more and more like a possible solution to some of our bullpen woes. The RHP has been a closer for the majority of his professional career. He has been a reliever the entire time having never started a game. He has had success at every level.

After signing as an undrafted free-agent out of Chico State by the Padres in 2003, Thayer started at the Padres A-ball affiliate in the Midwest league. He began racking the saves up there (25). He went to pitch in A+ and AA in 2004 and collected 23 more saves (all at A+). Since then he has continued to have success using a low-nineties fastball, slider, curve, and change to some impressive totals. Here are some key statistics by level:

Year	Seasons	W	L	G	SV	IP	ERA	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB	FIP
Total	6	26	15	325	132	373.1	2.34	1.173	7.6	0.4	3	9.4	3.16	2.66
AA	4	20	10	168	75	189.2	2.42	1.244	7.9	0.6	3.3	8.4	2.57	3.22
AAA	3	3	1	62	9	80.2	2.79	1.351	8.9	0.3	3.2	9.9	3.07	2.51
A	1	1	3	45	25	48	2.06	0.958	5.8	0.4	2.8	13.5	4.8	1.62
A+	1	2	1	50	23	55	1.64	0.855	5.9		1.8	8.8	4.91	1.84

Last year in Durham, Thayer had a spectacular year. His FIP was slightly lower than his ERA (2.56 to 2.77) likely due to a high BABIP (.353). The following table shows what he has done in some important metrics since joining the Rays in 2006.

Year	Level	IP	FIP	tRA	K/9	BB/9	GB%	FB%	LD%	SwSt%
2006 (total)	AA/AAA	69.6	3.41	-	7.88	2.97	45.0%	38.0%	16.0%	-
2007	AA	62.3	3.56	3.57	8.09	2.89	40.0%	43.6%	16.4%	-
2007	AAA	11.6	2.83	1.28	6.94	3.09	45.9%	37.8%	16.2%	8.4%
2008	AAA	68.3	2.56	2.82	9.75	3.16	44.6%	36.9%	16.9%	11.5%
Since 06	AA/AAA	271	3.27	-	8.6	3.19	44.7%	38.9%	15.5%	-

Lastly, what does Thayer project to do in the Rays bullpen this year? Let's take a look at his MLEs from the last two years courtesy of minorleaguesplits.com.

MLE	IP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
2007	73.3	4.57	6.01	4.3	0.74
2008	67.7	3.57	8.24	4.26	0.4

Looking at his year last year, his FIP would have been good for 4th best on the team behind Balfour, Niemann, and Miller. If he can come close to that, say a 4 FIP, then he could be around the fifth or sixth best arm in the bullpen. While he may not be the closer of the future, Dale Thayer could certainly offer some additional bullpen help and would almost certainly be an upgrade over Wheeler and Percival.