Done by Jonathan Mayo. Short Scouting Reports are included on the website for the #1-#20.

1. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals

2. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Mariners

3. Mike Trout, OF, Angels

4. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pirates

5. Christian Bethancourt, C, Braves

6. Mike Olt, 3B, Rangers

7. Wil Myers, OF, Royals

8. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies

9. Michael Choice, OF, A's

10. Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Padres

11. Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals

12. Mikie Mahtook, OF, Rays

13. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox

14. Nick Franklin, SS, Mariners

15. Anthony Gose, OF, Blue Jays

16. Jed Bradley, LHP, Brewers

17. Gary Brown, OF, Giants

18. Jean Segura, SS, Angels

19. Joe Panik, INF, Giants

20. Sean Gilmartin, LHP, Braves

21. Tim Wheeler, OF, Rockies

22. Robbie Grossman, OF, Pirates

23. Junior Lake, SS, Cubs

24. Scooter Gennett, 2B, Brewers

25. Adam Eaton, OF, Diamondbacks

List is OK I guess, but several curious items:

- Bethancourt ranked VERY high

- Dont think too many lists will have Hultzen above Trout.

- L Martin completely omitted

- Y Grandal completely omitted

- Gennett?  He must really like him.

Also, several other guys that arguably could be on, particularly over a guy like Gennett:  B Boxberger, Derek Norris, T Thornburg, T McNutt, N Ramirez, S Solis, M Purke, A Hicks, G Green, M Dominguez, J Vitters, T Beckham, C Colon, J Decker.  The prospect status for a lot of these guys has slipped, but most of them made a BA League Top 20 and all still are prospects.  And a lot of them had very good AFL campaigns, FWIW.  Also, some of these guys didnt play much, but he didnt seem to have an AB or IP requirement, because Bradley made the list w only 8.3 IP.  The teams played 36-38 games, so figure that a reasonable threshold would be 1 AB or 0.3 IP per game.

BA's Marlins list will be coming out tomorrow (Wednes).  Here's my stab at what it will look like:

1 - Christian Yelich

2 - Jose Fernandez

3 - Marcel Ozuna

4 - Matt Dominguez

5 - J.T. Realmuto

6 - Chad James

7 - Scott Cousins

8 - Rob Rasmussen

9 - Kyle Jensen

10 - Noah Perio/Jose Urena

Pretty thin system so kind of hard to predict this list.  I'm sure they'll have some surprises for us.  Your thoughts?

Thought I'd give this a try myself.  BA's eligibility rules, evidently, are at least 1 PA or 1/3 IP per game, and the EL played 142 games.  So even tho Harper had only 129 ABs, he still is eligible, according to a tweet from Jim Callis, so he must have had >=142 PAs.

1 - B Harper

2 - J Turner

3 -  T D'Arnaud

4 - M Harvey

5 - B Peacock

6 - M Banuelos

7 - D Betances

8 - A Gose

9 - W Middlebrooks

10 - S Marte

11 - J Benson

12 - R Lavarnway

13 - Au Romine

14 - E Surkamp

15 - L Hendriks

16 - R Havens

17 - J Familia

18 - C Chiang

19 - S Lombardozzi

20 - B Bundy/C Crosby

The talent level seems to drop off after first the 7-8 or so.  Doesnt seem to be as much talent as in some other leagues.  I probably overlooked a player or two and I'm sure BA will have some surprises for us as usual.

I posted a list like this last October.  Now, I'm taking another stab at predicting who'll be in BA's overall Top 100, which will be posted Tuesday. This time, I gave a ranking to each player, but still included a range of where I think the player will likely be:

1. (2) S. Strasburg (1 or 2)

2. (1) J. Heyward (1 or 2)

3. (3) M. Stanton (3-10)

4. (4) J. Montero (3-10)

5. (8) P. Alvarez (3-10)

6. (5) B. Matusz (5-10)

7. (9) N. Feliz (5-10)

8. (7) B. Posey (5-15)

9. (6) D. Jennings (5-15)

10. (14) M. Bumgarner (5-20)

11. (10) C. Santana (5-20)

12. (11) D. Ackley (5-20)

13. (13) J. Smoak (5-20)

14. (15) D. Brown (5-20)

15. (20) L. Morrison (10-25)

16. (12) A. Escobar (10-25)

17. (19) A. Hicks (10-30)

18. (16) Star. Castro (10-30)

19. (25) K. Drabek (10-30)

20. (17) M. Perez (15-30)

21. (34) W. Davis (15-30) - miss

22. (18) J. Hellickson (15-30)

23. (24) C. Kelly (15-30)

24. (22) A. Chapman (15-35)

25. (21) R. Westmoreland (15-35)

26. (23) T. Matzek (15-40)

27. (31) L. Chisenhall (15-40)

28. (33) C. Friedrich (15-50)

29. (26) J. Turner (20-45)

30. (47) C. Crosby (25-50) - semi-miss

31. (39) M. Montgomery (25-50)

32. (40) A. Crow (25-50)

33. (28) C. Carter (25-50)

34. (27) B. Wallace (25-50)

35. (45) Y. Alonso (25-50)

36. (32) F. Freeman (25-50)

37. (29) M. Taylor (25-50)

38. (46) D. Gordon (30-55)

39. (52) G. Green (30-60)

40. (56) J. Mejia (30-60) - semi-miss

41. (77) F. Martinez (30-60) - miss

42. (35) M. Moore (30-65)

43. (41) J. Castro (30-65)

44. (61) K. Gibson (30-70)

45. (51) J. Teheran (30-70)

46. (59) B. Lawrie (35-75)

47. (37) J. Bell (40-75)

48. (53) D. Tate (40-75)

49. (36) J. Parker (40-80) - miss

50. (48) C. Withrow (40-80)

51. (38) D. Norris (40-80) - miss

52. (55) J. Mitchell (40-80)

53. (67) T. Beckham (40-80)

54. (80) M. Moustakas (40-85) - miss

55. (70) J. Vitters (40-85)

56. (62) I. Davis (40-85)

57. (30) M. Saunders (40-85) - miss

58. (76) A. Jackson (40-85)

59. (42) T. Scheppers (40-85) - semi-miss

60. (50) S. Miller (40-90)

61. (49) Z. Wheeler (40-90)

62. (43) T. Frazier (45-80) - miss

63. (66) D. Hudson (40-100)

64. (74) Brett Jackson (50-90)

65.  (73) J. Mier (50-90)

66.  (NR) M. Dominguez (50-100) - miss

67. (75) J. Reddick (50-100)

68. (95) A. Cashner (50-100) - miss

69. (69) A. Vizcaino (50-100)

70. (91) J. Lyles (50-100) - semi-miss

71. (NR) J. Tabata (50-100) - miss

72. (79) T. Sanchez (50-100)

73. (58) W. Ramos (50-100)

74. (NR) W. Myers (50-100) - miss

75. (60) T. Flowers (50-100)

76. (54) R. Brignac (50-100) - semi-miss

77. (NR) E. Hosmer (50-100) - miss

78. (71) J. Chacin (50-100)

79. (99) J. Arrieta (60-100) - semi-miss

80. (63) Z. Britton (60-100) - semi-miss

81. (NR) E. Martin (60-100) - miss

82. (57) Sim. Castro (60-100) - miss

83. (NR) B. Revere (60-100) - miss

84. (94) M. Sano (60-100)

85. (NR) B. Borchering (60-100) - miss

86. (NR) Aar. Miller (60-100) - miss

87. (NR) A. Liddi (60-100) - miss

88. (97) P. Bourjos (60-100)

89. (83) H. Conger (60-100)

90. (85) M. Trout (70-100)

91. (100) N. Arguelles (70-100)

92. (82) J. Decker (70-100)

93. (44) N. Hagadone (75-100) - miss

94. (88) W. Flores (75-100)

95. (89) M. Gamel (75-100)

96. (87) L. Anderson (75-100)

97. (92) D. Storen (75-100)

98. (84) A. Moore (75-100)

99. (NR) Z. Stewart (75-100) - miss

100. (98) Jay Jackson (75-100)

HMs

H. Rondon

E. Rogers

(90) J. Darnell

T. Reckling

R. Kalish

(72) M. Leake - miss

M. Minor

(78) C. James - semi-miss

(96) T. Neal

N. Weglarz

Other possibilities:

B. Lincoln

T. Melville

M. Ynoa

J. Tazawa

(64) J. Knapp  - miss

(93) P. Aumont

E. Arnett

M. Brantley

C. Triunfel

B. Allen

H. Lee

(68) A. Colome - (miss)

C. D'Arnaud

I. Desmond

D. Espinosa

S. Sizemore

C. Heisey

C. Carrasco

Jam. Garcia

A. Pollock

(81) T. D'Arnaud - semi-miss

M. Stassi

(86) A. Romine

J. Niese

A. Oliver

---

(65) Alex White (complete miss)

---

The team w the most players on the list (surprise!) KC w 6 (tied w Tampa). I'm fairly certain that there will be this many from KC. Every team has at least 1 player. Seems a bit more hitter-heavy than usual w 59 and only 41 pitchers. 52 from AL and 48 from NL. Lots of catchers (11), counting guys like Montero, and also 3 more on my 'Other possibilities' list..

The BA Prospect Handbook is out, which has the individual Top 50's, but I did not consult it. I did get a little advance notice tho by listening to the latest BA Chat, in which they discuss the Top 100. After hearing that, I moved 4 guys on (Britton, Decker, Storen, A. Moore); they specifically said that all these guys are on it. I moved Kalish, Reckling, Rogers, and Rondon off, but the only one I'm pretty sure is not on BA's list is Kalish (they said that only 4 Boston guys made it, and they said that Anderson made it and Kalish is #5 on the Bosox Top 10).

There were several players that were particularly hard to rank based on BA's prior rankings. E.g., Rogers and Rondon.  They ranked pretty low on their Team Top 10's. But they each ranked fairly well on 2 diff league Top 20's.  I ended up leaving both just off the list. I thought that the Cleveland and Colorado Team Top 10's were 2 of the hardest to figure, the former particularly so because Callis did the list. Rogers rated on HM on BA's mid-season Top 25. Of course he was not good at AAA during the second half, but he still was ranked #9 in the PCL.

Ynoa wasnt even ranked on the original A's Top 10 (he's #10 now since Desme retired) after being ranked #54 overall last year. It was stated in the BA chat that Arguelles is in the top 100. I dont think anyone's ever made the Top 100 when being ranked only #10 on the Team Top 10, so I dont see how Ynoa will make the list. Yet Ynoa was even more highly regarded this time last year than Arguelles is now, even tho he was at the same point professionally (i.e., had never pitched in pros) while being a year younger. And Ynoa didnt pitch badly; he just didnt pitch at all. Yet his injury was not major, and, according to more than 1 report I've heard, he's been impressive throwing in the instructional league this off-season. How Arguelles makes the list while Ynoa doesnt seems a bit odd.

There are 19 guys on this list that werent on the one I did in October. 2 of these (Chapman and Arguelles) werent eligible then. All the rest except for 4 were on my list of additional possible players. The ones I completely missed were Aaron Miller, Hagadone, Storen and Adam Moore. There may be another name or 2 on the real list that I missed.

Comments?

BA just finished their League Top 20's, and are about to begin their Team Top 10's. I thought I'd take an early stab at predicting who'll be in their overall Top 100. Instead of trying to assign a rank to each player, I included a range of where I think the player will likely be ranked:

1 J. Heyward (1 or 2)
2 S. Strasburg (1 or 2)
3 J. Montero (3-10)
4 P. Alvarez (3-10)
5 M. Stanton (3-10)
6 B. Posey (3-10)
7 D. Jennings (3-15)
8 J. Smoak (3-15)
9 D. Ackley (3-20)
10 D. Brown (5-25)
11 N. Feliz (5-25)
12 M. Bumgarner (5-25)
13 C. Santana (5-25)
14 L. Morrison (5-25)
15 B. Matusz (10-30)
16 J. Chacin (10-35)
17 M. Perez (10-40)
18 A. Escobar (15-40)
19 F. Freeman (15-45)
20 K. Drabek (15-45)
21 L. Chisenhall (15-50)
22 B. Wallace (20-45)
23 Y. Alonso (20-45)
24 M. Taylor (20-60)
25 R. Westmoreland (20-60)
26 W. Davis (20-60)
27 T. Beckham (25-50)
28 C. Friedrich (25-60)
29 T. Matzek (25-60)
30 J. Turner (25-60)
31 C. Kelly (25-60)
32 A. Hicks (25-65)
33 D. Gordon (25-65)
34 F. Martinez (30-65)
35 M. Saunders (30-70)
36 C. Carter (30-75)
37 M. Moore (30-75)
38 A. Crow (30-80)
39 M. Gamel (30-80)
40 B. Lawrie (35-75)
41 J. Teheran (35-80)
42 A. Jackson (35-80)
43 A. White (30-90)
44 S. Miller (30-90)
45 Z. Wheeler (30-90)
46 M. Montgomery (40-80)
47 C. Crosby (40-80)
48 Star. Castro (40-80)
49 M. Moustakas (40-90)
50 G. Green (40-90)
51 B. Allen (40-90)
52 J. Castro (40-90)
53 B. Revere (45-80)
54 R. Brignac (50-80)
55 T. Frazier (50-80)
56 D. Norris (45-90)
57 J. Tabata (45-90)
58 D. Tate (40-100)
59 J. Arrieta (50-90)
60 M. Ynoa (50-100)
61 J. Bell (50-100)
62 R. Kalish (50-100)
63 I. Davis (50-100)
64 J. Reddick (50-100)
65 A. Liddi (50-100)
66 C. Withrow (50-100)
67 E. Martin (50-100)
68 J. Iglesias (50-100)
69 T. Reckling (50-100)
70 D. Hudson (50-100)
71 J. Mitchell (50-100)
72 J. Knapp (50-100)
73 J. Lyles (50-100)
74 J. Mejia (50-100)
75 J. Hellickson (50-100)
76 M. Dominguez (50-100)
77 Sim. Castro (50-100)
78 T. Scheppers (50-100)
79 H. Rondon (50-100)
80 J. Vitters (50-100)
81 E. Hosmer (50-100)
82 J. Parker (60-100)
83 D. Espinosa (60-100)
84 B. Lincoln (60-100)
85 T. Flowers (60-100)
86 D. Duffy (60-100)
87 J. Tazawa (60-100)
88 P. Bourjos (60-100)
89 W. Ramos (60-100)
90 T. Neal (60-100)
91 Jay Jackson (60-100)
92 A. Lambo (60-100)
93 T. Melville (60-100)
94 E. Rogers (60-100)
95 H. Lee (75-100)
96 J. Decker (75-100)
97 C. Scarpetta (75-100)
98 D. Bard (80-100)
99 P. Aumont (80-100)
100 W. Flores (80-100)

Honorable Mentions (20)
A. Vizcaino
M. Banuelos
K. Gibson
T. Gillies
N. Weglarz
D. Viciedo
M. Brantley
S. Sizemore
C. Carrasco
C. Heisey
A. Cardenas
A. Poreda
A. Rizzo
C. Triunfel
J. Niese
M. Trout
M. Sano
J. Darnell
L. Anderson
W. Myers

More Possibilities (30)
Z. Britton
Bran. Snyder
C. Lin
M. Bowden
R. Strieby
H. Conger
A. Romine
J. Weeks
G. Desme
N. Barnese
Z. Stewart
B. Borchering
Cody Johnson
A. Cashner
Brett Jackson
J. Mier
T. Robinson
C. Gindl
J. Lucroy
A. Gose
C. D'Arnaud
T. Sanchez
L. Lynn
M. Leake
L. Forsythe
E. Rincon
Ev. Williams
R. Kieschnick
C. Marrero
I. Desmond

I wish I could say that all the players that end up on their list are included in the above. But every year they have a few surprises. But I wouldnt think there'd be more than a handful that I didnt include. Perhaps you disagree.

Comments?

Sometimes you see the countries listed in of order who won the most medals overall, and sometimes you see them listed by who won the most gold. Currently:

China - 49G 20S 28B = 97 Total

USA   - 34G 37S 36B = 107 Total

So, by the 1st method, the US wins, and by the second method, China wins easily. Both methods seem fatally flawed, since a gold is obviously worth more than a silver and a silver more than a bronze. And if you count only the gold medals, what is the point of listing the silvers and bronzes at all? I'm surprised noone seems to use a more intelligent way of determining the winner. In all the sports voting I know about, you get a certain # of pts for a 1st place vote, a lesser # of points for 2nd place, etc. Why dont they use this in the Olympics?

A simple method would be that a gold medal is worth 3 pts, a silver 2 pts and a bronze 1 pt. By this method:

China - 49*3 + 20*2 + 28*1 = 215 pts

USA   - 34*3 + 37*2 + 36*1 = 212 pts

and China edges out USA. I think there still are a few medals to be awarded, so the USA could pull out an 11th hour win.

Maybe some of you say that the Olympics are about bringing nations closer together thru sports and it's not important which one wins. In that case, why bother displaying the medal counts by nation at all? If it's worth keeping track of publicly, it's worth doing right.

Of course, you could say that it's silly that there are dozens of medals awarded in some individual events, like swimming, but only 1 set of medals in team competitions like baseball, soccer and basketball that last the entire length of the games, and therefore, medal counts arent as meaningful as they could be. I dont know what can be done about that short of making medals in some competitions worth more than others, which wont happen.

BTW, it seems curious that the host country seems to do much better in the games that they host than in other games. AFAIK, China has never won an Olympics but they are likely to win this one. In 2004, which the USA won, China finished in 3rd place overall and in 2nd in gold medals. Germany won the 1936 games (in Berlin), yet in the 1932 games (in LA) the USA won by a landslide and Germany wasnt even close. Also, the USA won in 1984 (in LA) by a landslide and 1996 by a large margin (Atlanta).

Also, does the winning nation get some sort of an award? If so, I've never heard of it.

BA will be posting their overall Top 100 prospects soon, maybe next week.  I thought it would be fun to try to predict what it will be.  I based the list pretty much on the BA Team Top 10's, League Top 20's, last year's BA Top 100 and as many rankings as I know about Callis' Top 50 (almost all of them).  But, I also used my own judgment, so there are some discrepancies.  I also included 10 Honorable Mentions - BA usually includes these also.

1    Jay    Bruce
2    Evan    Longoria
3    Clay    Buchholz
4    Joba    Chamberlain
5    Clayton    Kershaw
6    Colby    Rasmus
7    Cameron    Maybin
8    David    Price
9    Travis     Snider
10    Homer    Bailey
11    Matt    Wieters
12    Jake    McGee
13    Rick     Porcello
14    Jacoby    Ellsbury
15    Mike    Moustakas
16    Andy    LaRoche
17    Andrew    McCutchen
18    Brandon    Wood
19    Matt    LaPorta
20    Wade    Davis
21    Reid    Brignac
22    Fernando    Martinez
23    Franklin    Morales
24    Carlos    Gonzalez
25    Kosuke    Fukudome
26    Joey    Votto
27    Jason    Heyward
28    Jordan    Schafer
29    Angel    Villalona
30    Jose    Tabata
31    Jeff    Clement
32    Johnny     Cueto
33    Chris    Marrero
34    Desmond    Jennings
35    Austin     Jackson
36    Brett    Anderson
37    Lars    Anderson
38    Gio    Gonzalez
39    Adam    Miller
40    Nick    Adenhart
41    Chase    Headley
42    Josh    Vitters
43    Deolis    Guerra
44    Fautino    De Los Santos
45    Ross    Detwiler
46    Elvis    Andrus
47    Jarrod    Parker
48    Chris    Volstad
49    Matt    Antonelli
50    Ian    Stewart
51    Dexter    Fowler
52    Daniel    Cortes
53    Tim    Alderson
54    Justin    Masterson
55    Phillipe    Aumont
56    Chris    Tillman
57    Carlos    Triunfel
58    Carlos    Gomez
59    Carlos    Carrasco
60    Chin-Lung    Hu
61    Daric    Barton
62    Luke    Hochevar
63    Ian    Kennedy
64    Jair    Jurrjens
65    Jed    Lowrie
66    Manny    Parra
67    Neil    Walker
68    Geovany    Soto
69    J.R.    Towles
70    Chris    Davis
71    Eric    Hurley
72    Greg    Reynolds
73    Brandon    Jones
74    Gorkys    Hernandez
75    Hiroki    Kuroda
76    Jordan    Walden
77    Matt    Latos
78    Stephen    Pearce
79    Hank    Conger
80    Taylor    Teagarden
81    Scott    Elbert
82    Max    Scherzer
83    Radhames    Liz
84    Madison    Bumgarner
85    Aaron    Poreda
86    Beau    Mills
87    Wladimir    Balentien
88    Jeff    Niemann
89    Troy    Patton
90    Chuck    Lofgren
91    Hector    Gomez
92    Brent    Lillibridge
93    Michael    Bowden
94    Tyler    Colvin
95    Adrian    Cardenas
96    Bill    Rowell
97    Colin    Balester
98    Mike    Burgess
99    Drew    Stubbs
100    Chris    Perez
HM    Ryan    Kalish
HM    Will    Inman
HM    Jeremy     Hellickson
HM    Henry    Sosa
HM    Jaime    Garcia
HM    Wes    Hodges
HM    Brett    Sinkbeil
HM    Cole    Rohrbough
HM    Bryan    Anderson
HM    Nick    Blackburn

There are 50 AL players and 50 NL players, so that seems right.  There are 55 hitters and 45 pitchers, so that seems about right, too.  Tampa has 7 guys, Boston has 6 and Cincy, Oakland, Colorado and Baltimore (surprise!) have 5 each.  I dont think any team will get shut out, like San Diego was last year (the Santana trade may have saved Minnesota), altho the White Sox are a possibility.  There are 5 teams w only 1 player (Detroit, Toronto, Mets, Houston and ChiSox).  I wont bother listing them, but I count 20 guys that made last year's list that wont make it this year, which also seems about right.

It was remarkable how similar the 2 lists were 1 thru 29.  But there's been a divergence since then.  Here are the players on either list that are ranked as high as #61, plus the ones on our current poll:

John    Mound
Sickels    Talk
1    1    Jay    Bruce
2    3    Evan    Longoria
3    2    Colby    Rasmus
4    4    Clay    Buchholz
5    5    Clayton    Kershaw
6    6    Joba    Chamberlain
7    11    Cameron    Maybin
8    8    Homer    Bailey
9    9    David    Price
10    10    Andy    LaRoche
11    7    Jake    McGee
12    16    Johnny     Cueto
13    13    Travis     Snider
14    14    Brandon    Wood
15    15    Matt    Wieters
16    12    Jacoby    Ellsbury
17.5    17    Joey    Votto
17.5    18    Andrew    McCutchen
19    19    Wade    Davis
20.5    21    Reid    Brignac
20.5    20    Chase    Headley
22    22    Daric    Barton
23    23    Rick     Porcello
24    25    Franklin    Morales
25    26    Jeff    Clement
26    24    Matt    LaPorta
27    29    Mike    Moustakas
28    28    Chris    Marrero
29    27    Fernando    Martinez
30    32    Matt    Antonelli
31    33    Desmond    Jennings
32    40    Carlos    Gonzalez
33    41    Jason    Heyward
34    30    Fautino    De Los Santos
35    64    Jed    Lowrie
36    44    Angel    Villalona
37    35    Gio    Gonzalez
38    42    Ian    Kennedy
39    47    Carlos    Triunfel
40    51    Stephen    Pearce
41    43    Jordan    Schafer
41.5    NA    Kosuke    Fukudome
42    65    Adam    Miller
43    38    Nick    Adenhart
44    31    Wladimir    Balentien
45    46    Austin     Jackson
46    36    Eric    Hurley
47    39    Jose    Tabata
48    87    Geovany    Soto
49    58    Lars    Anderson
50    70    Chin-Lung    Hu
51    NR    Chris    Davis
52    91    Luke    Hochevar
53    61    Jarrod    Parker
54    34    Taylor    Teagarden
55    NR    Manny    Parra
56    75    Deolis    Guerra
57    62    Neil    Walker
58    53    Josh    Vitters
59    57    Ross    Detwiler
60    59    Hank    Conger
61    49    Elvis    Andrus
x    45    Carlos    Carrasco
NA    52    Carlos    Gomez
x    67    Brett    Anderson
x    76    J.R.    Towles
x    81    Mike    Burgess
x    82    Ian    Stewart
x    99    Brent    Lillibridge
x    NR    Jordan    Walden
x    NR    Cole    Rohrbough
x    NR    James    McDonald
--    37    Justin    Masterson
--    48    Beau    Mills
--    50    Tim    Alderson
--    54    Max    Scherzer
--    55    Scott    Elbert
--    56    Will    Inman
--    60    Jeremy    Jeffress

x = on current poll

The players that differ by more than 13 places on the lists are Lowrie (+29), Soto (+39), Davis (at least +49), Hu (+20), Hochevar (+39), Teagarden (-20), A. Miller (+23), Guerra (+19) and C. Carrasco (at least -16).  Of these, I think they have Lowrie, Hochevar and Davis more where they should be (altho I think Davis should be on the back end of the list), whereas I think we're more right on Guerra, I think they're even more wrong on Teagarden than we are and I think we'll end up being more right when we rank Carrasco.  Also, we'll be closer on Walden, who should get ranked soon, whereas he didnt make their list.  And, I think they're way off on Masterson, Mills, Scherzer, Elbert and Jeffress who we havent ranked.  I think all these belong toward the back end, and Jeffress probably shouldnt be on at all.

Gomez wasnt eligible for our list, and evidently Fukudome (and Kuroda) werent eligible for theirs.

Overall, both lists are good, but I like ours better right now.  

FYI, the MoundTalk site has completed its own Community Top 100.  Link:

http://www.moundtalk.com/prospects/moundtalk-community-top-100-prospects-2008/

It's similarity to our list so far is remarkable.  Maybin and McGee are switched, Ellsbury and Cueto are switched and it looks like Morales and LaPorta will be switched.  Otherwise, it's identical.

Here is my list of top 75 prospects.  I am sending this same list to Slurve.  The list I update on a regular basis is for roto, so it takes me a while to turn it into a 'real' list.  Could use a little more work but Slurve's deadline approaches, so here it is.  

It's kind of a 'safe' list, I suppose.  But, FWIW, and I think unlike many of the posters here (correct me if I'm wrong), I've seen a lot of these guys play, albeit briefly.

I could have posted a Top 100 (or Top 300, FTM), but when you get past 75 or so, I find it problematic who to include because you start getting to players that you're more and more unsure about.

Comments are welcome (praise, as well as criticism!).  I generally visit the board after work, and I'm signing off for the evening, so it may be a while before I respond.

1    Jay    Bruce    Cin    OF
2    Colby    Rasmus    StL    OF
3    Evan    Longoria    TB    3B
4    Clay    Buchholz    Bos    SP
5    Clayton    Kershaw    LAD    SP
6    Cameron    Maybin    Fla    OF
7    Joba    Chamberlain    NYY    SP/RP
8    Pedro    Alvarez    College    3B
9    Travis     Snider    Tor    OF/1B
10    Chris    Marrero    Was    OF
11    Homer    Bailey    Cin    SP
12    David    Price    TB    SP
13    Andy    LaRoche    LAD    3B/2B
14    Andrew    McCutchen    Pit    OF
15    Fernando    Martinez    NYM    OF
16    Jake    McGee    TB    SP
17    Reid    Brignac    TB    SS
18    Brandon    Wood    LAA    3B
19    Matt    Wieters    Bal    C
20    Mike    Moustakas    KC    3B/OF
21    Rick     Porcello    Det    SP
22    Jordan    Schafer    Atl    OF
23    Jacoby    Ellsbury    Bos    OF
24    Carlos    Gomez    NYM    OF
25    Joey    Votto    Cin    1B
26    Jeff    Clement    Sea    C
27    Jason    Heyward    Atl    OF/1B
28    Desmond    Jennings    TB    OF
29    Chase    Headley    SD    3B/OF
30    Carlos    Gonzalez    Ari    OF
31    Lars    Anderson    Bos    1B
32    Matt    LaPorta    Mil    1B
33    Angel    Villalona    SF    3B
34    Carlos    Triunfel    Sea    SS
35    Wade    Davis    TB    SP
36    Deolis    Guerra    NYM    SP
37    Johnny     Cueto    Cin    SP
38    Bill    Rowell    Bal    3B
39    Matt    Antonelli    SD    2B/3B
40    Gio    Gonzalez    CHW    SP
41    Fautino    De Los Santos    CHW    SP
42    Chris    Tillman    Sea    SP
43    Daric    Barton    Oak    1B
45    Brandon    Jones    Atl    OF
46    Jose    Tabata    NYY    OF
47    Dexter    Fowler    Col    OF
48    Adam    Miller    Cle    SP/RP
50    Austin     Jackson    NYY    OF
49    Mike    Burgess    Was    OF
44    Josh    Vitters    CHC    3B
51    Chin-Lung    Hu    LAD    SS
52    Ryan    Kalish    Bos    OF
53    Elvis    Andrus    Tex    SS
54    Gorkys    Hernandez    Atl    OF
55    Nick    Adenhart    LAA    SP
56    Carlos    Carrasco    Phi    SP
57    Ian    Kennedy    NYY    SP
58    Will    Inman    SD    SP
59    Eric    Hurley    Tex    SP
60    Justin    Smoak    College    1B
61    Kosuke    Fukudome    Japan    OF
62    Wladimir    Balentien    Sea    OF
63    Neil    Walker    Pit    3B
64    Jed    Lowrie    Bos    SS/2B
65    Geovany    Soto    CHC    C
66    Brett    Anderson    Ari    SP
67    Jeremy     Hellickson    TB    SP
68    Michael    Bowden    Bos    SP
69    Henry    Sosa    SF    SP
70    Cole    Rohrbough    Atl    SP
71    Jarrod    Parker    Ari    SP
72    Scott    Elbert    LAD    SP
73    Jaime    Garcia    StL    SP
74    Ian    Stewart    Col    3B/2B/1B/OF
75    J.R.    Towles    Hou    C

There was a combined perfect game thrown in the finale of the Japan Series.  The starter, Daisuke Yamai pitched 8 IP and Hitoki Iwase threw the final inning.  Score was 1-0, clinching the series for the Chunichi Dragons over the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters.  The only run scored on a sac fly.  

Now that the series is over, eligible players have 10 days (until 11/12) to file for free agency.  Fukudome, who happens to play for Chunichi but evidently still is hurt, is expected to file Monday (today).  Iwase, who would likely draw a lot of interest from MLB clubs, also is eligible, but it is uncertain whether he wants come to MLB.

I'm taking a little baseball vacation in Arizona next week. Plan to see a bunch of AFL games. There are several scheduled games between AFL clubs and Team USA. Also, Team China. I'll give a report on this board when I get back.

Anyone seen any AFL games in person this year?  If so, how about some 'scouting reports'?

Project Prospect has posted its mid-season top 50. Link:

http://www.projectprospect.com/midseason-top-50-07

All our 13 choices so far are in its top 15.  The 2 guys missing on our list so far are Rasmus (#8) and Wood (#9).  Some curious choices are Asdrubal Cabrera at #34, and Sonnanstine at #50 and Carlos Gonzalez completely missing the list, altho he is an honorable mention.  Also, it's surprising to see Lars Anderson at #38, Whittleman at #48 and Scherzer at #45.  Those guys are having great years, but they look like overranks so far to me.  Scherzer has a total of 22 pro IP.  Anderson, like Scherzer, had no pro experience before this year.  Whittleman is repeating Low-A.  Note also, Guerra detractors, that he's ranked #35.  

Since there was so much controversy over whether Guerra, and 'projectable' pitchers in general, gain velocity as they mature, I decided to submit a question Re: this to 'Ask BA' this past week.  To my pleasant surprise, Jim Callis answered it right away.  Below is part of my question (he actually changed part of it, for some reason):

     What roughly is the percentage chance that (Guerra) in particular, and projectable pitchers in general, will experience at least a modest gain in velocity (1-2 mph)? How much chance of a significant gain? Is this more of a function of mechanics than anything else? Do any empirical studies of this issue exist?

Callis' answer:

     I don't know of any empirical studies that exist, but if they do and someone has access to them, I'd love to see the results. Such a study would take some time, but it would be fairly easy for a club to create a database by taking its scouting reports along with height and age data to see how pitchers developed over a number of years.
     While I can't give you exact percentages, I can speak in more general terms. Given his very young age and very lanky frame, I'd expect Guerra to be throwing consistently in the low 90s, maybe harder, five years down the road. It's a function of many things: age, build, present velocity, mechanics, arm speed, what kind of throwing program he's on, etc

So, he thinks Guerra will gain signficant velocity based on his general age and physical characteristics.  That's more or less in line w what my thinking was before the issue came up.  I think that pretty much justifies us putting him where we did on the Community list.  Now, let's see if BA puts him in their Top 100.

I did an average of the 4 'reputable' Top 100 lists that I know about so far to generate a 'composite' Top 100.  The 4 lists are from Top Prospect Alert, Baseball Digest Daily, Project Prospect and Sports Illustrated.  Actually, the SI list is a Top 75 but they have 25 Honorable mentions.  For the HMs, I used a value of 88, which is about the midpoint between 75 and 100.  This is not perfect but it's better than using a value of 76 because it doesnt skew the results as much.  I wanted to include this list because I wanted a larger sample and because it's by Kevin Goldstein so it's one of the better lists.  Basically, almost all you had to do to make the composite top 100 was to be ranked on at least 2 lists, altho there were 4 such guys that didnt quite make it.

Here is the Composite list, along side our list:

                   Community Composite Difference
Alex    Gordon        1    1.3    -0.3
Delmon    Young        2    2.0    0.0
Daisuke    Matsuzaka    2.5    3.0    -0.5
Phillip    Hughes        3    3.3    -0.3
Homer    Bailey        5    4.5    0.5
Brandon    Wood        4    5.3    -1.3
Cameron    Maybin        7    8.8    -1.8
Jay    Bruce        13    10.0    3.0
Troy    Tulowitzki    12    10.8    1.3
Justin    Upton        9    11.0    -2.0
Andrew    McCutchen    16    11.8    4.3
Chris    Young        8    12.0    -4.0
Billy    Butler        6    14.5    -8.5
Matt    Garza        10    14.8    -4.8
Andrew    Miller        23    15.0    8.0
Evan    Longoria    19    17.0    2.0
Mike    Pelfrey        21    17.5    3.5
Reid    Brignac        14    17.5    -3.5
Scott    Elbert        26    18.0    8.0
Yovani    Gallardo    22    19.3    2.8
Carlos    Gonzalez    17    19.3    -2.3
Adam    Miller        18    21.3    -3.3
Tim    Lincecum    20    21.8    -1.8
Andy    LaRoche        11    22.3    -11.3
Jose    Tabata        24    23.3    0.8
Ryan    Braun        25    23.8    1.3
Fernando Martinez    27    28.0    -1.0
Luke    Hochevar    28    31.0    -3.0
Clayton    Kershaw        29    33.3    -4.3
Colby    Rasmus        36    34.0    2.0
James    Loney        32    34.3    -2.3
Adam    Jones        30    34.3    -4.3
Jason    Hirsh        31    34.8    -3.8
Joey    Votto        35    35.8    -0.8
Nick    Adenhart    34    36.0    -2.0
Jeff    Niemann        37    37.3    -0.3
Adam    Lind        40    37.8    2.3
Jacoby    Ellsbury    41    39.3    1.8
Hunter    Pence        33    40.0    -7.0
Jarrod    Saltalamacchia    47    41.5    5.5
Felix    Pie        42    42.0    0.0
Josh    Fields        45    44.5    0.5
Jeff    Clement        59    46.5    12.5
Chuck    Lofgren        54    47.8    6.3
Elvis    Andrus        63    49.0    14.0
Clay    Buchholz    61    49.3    11.8
Travis    Buck        67    51.3    15.8
Daric    Barton        38    51.3    -13.3
Franklin Morales    51    53.0    -2.0
Travis     Snider        50    53.0    -3.0
Ian    Stewart        46    54.0    -8.0
John    Danks        48    54.5    -6.5
Troy    Patton        60    55.3    4.8
Bill    Rowell        49    55.3    -6.3
Carlos    Carrasco    71    57.8    13.3
Dexter    Fowler        68    58.5    9.5
Kevin    Kouzmanoff    52    58.5    -6.5
Chris    Iannetta    43    58.5    -15.5
Eric    Hurley        53    59.0    -6.0
Donald    Veal        64    59.8    4.3
Jake    McGee        58    61.0    -3.0
Ryan    Sweeney        55    63.5    -8.5
Phillip    Humber        44    64.8    -20.8
Kevin     Slowey        57    65.0    -8.0
Elijah    Dukes        15    65.3    -50.3
Neil    Walker        NR    65.8    NA
Will    Inman        69    66.8    2.3
Erick    Aybar        74    67.8    6.3
Brandon    Erbe        39    69.8    -30.8
Trevor    Crowe        79    70.5    8.5
Carlos    Gomez        62    70.8    -8.8
Humberto Sanchez    56    71.0    -15.0
Brad    Lincoln        82    73.8    8.3
Chris    Volstad        87    74.3    12.8
Dustin    Pedroia        72    75.0    -3.0
Nolan    Reimold        90    75.3    14.8
Alberto    Callaspo    NR    78.3    NA
Craig    Hansen        NR    79.3    NA
Michael    Bowden        77    79.8    -2.8
Mark    Rogers        NR    82.8    NA
Sean    Gallagher    NR    83.3    NA
Yusmeiro Petit        NR    83.5    NA
Miguel    Montero        75    84.0    -9.0
Sean    West        93    85.5    7.5
Kory    Casto        NR    85.8    NA
Wade    Davis        66    86.8    -20.8
Gio    Gonzalez    78    87.5    -9.5
Tyler    Clippard    NR    87.5    NA
Blake    DeWitt        95    87.8    7.3
Anthony    Swarzak        91    88.3    2.8
Ubaldo    Jimenez        86    88.3    -2.3
Micah    Owings        NR    88.5    NA
Cesar    Carrillo    97    89.8    7.3
Jeremy     Hellickson    94    90.3    3.8
Mitch    Talbot        NR    90.8    NA
Kurt    Suzuki        98    91.3    6.8
Eric    Campbell    76    91.5    -15.5
Thomas    Diamond        NR    91.5    NA
Jonathan Sanchez    81    92.5    -11.5
Daniel    Bard        NR    92.8    NA

Comparing this to our list, there are 4 guys that are on both lists where the rankings are more than 20 places off:  Dukes, Humber, Davis and Erbe.  As you would expect, Dukes was by far the farthest off at 50.6 places.  I was surprised that we were farther off on Erbe than we were on Humber.  In all 4 cases, our rank was higher than the composite rank.  

There also were 3 other guys who were ranked higher than 80 on our list that didnt make the Composite top 100:  Guzman (#65), Parmelee (#70) and Lubanski (#73).  There also were 3 guys who were ranked higher than on the composite list that didnt make our list:  Walker (65.8), Callaspo (78.3) and Hansen (79.3).  So you could say that these were more than 20 places off also.  

The farthest on a guy that we were lower than the rank on the composite list was Buck (#67) at 15.8 places.  Next were Reimold (#90 - 14.8) and Andrus (#63 - 14.0).

Also, there were a couple guys (besides Dukes) that were off by a larger number of places than their rank on our list:  Butler (#6 - 8.5 places) and LaRoche (#11 - 11.3 places).

There were 12 guys on the composite list that arent on ours, and 13 guys on our list that arent on the composite list.

So, w a few exceptions, our list jibes pretty well w the composite list, more so than I would have expected.  I think our list is better than the composite list, partly because the other lists were done earlier and we have the benefit of info now that wasnt as available then (e.g., Rogers' surgery and Joba's HWL performance), and partly also I think because we were a large group of fairly knowledgeable people and were able to debate the merits of the players.

I could make a lot of other comments, but I wont right now.  Basically, in spite of a few problems, I've enjoyed the entire process, and I've learned some things.  I'm sure many of you can say the same.  Props to all who participated and especially to those who ran the polls.

FYI and FWIW, Project Prospect has posted its Top 100 for 2007.  Link:

http://www.projectprospect.com/2007-top-100-prospect-list/

They posted a Top 25 about 4-6 weeks ago.  There are some changes in the top 25 since then.  

IMO, the list is just so-so, but I always like looking at these lists out of curiosity, if nothing else.  Some questionable inclusions on towards the back end.  I'll leave further comments up to you guys.

This is the 3rd Top 100 list I've seen so far.  There's also a Top 50.  

Link to a very interesting article about Charlie Finley at BaseballAnalysts:

baseballanalysts.com/arch...craz_1.php

So, reneging on an insurance annuity started MLB free agency!

And how many of you knew that M.C. Hammer was VP of the A's as a teenager? I sure didnt!

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