SB Nation User Blog: rhd

Early Prediction of BA's Top 100

rhd — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:04:39 -0000

BA just finished their League Top 20's, and are about to begin their Team Top 10's. I thought I'd take an early stab at predicting who'll be in their overall Top 100. Instead of trying to assign a rank to each player, I included a range of where I think the player will likely be ranked:

1 J. Heyward (1 or 2)
2 S. Strasburg (1 or 2)
3 J. Montero (3-10)
4 P. Alvarez (3-10)
5 M. Stanton (3-10)
6 B. Posey (3-10)
7 D. Jennings (3-15)
8 J. Smoak (3-15)
9 D. Ackley (3-20)
10 D. Brown (5-25)
11 N. Feliz (5-25)
12 M. Bumgarner (5-25)
13 C. Santana (5-25)
14 L. Morrison (5-25)
15 B. Matusz (10-30)
16 J. Chacin (10-35)
17 M. Perez (10-40)
18 A. Escobar (15-40)
19 F. Freeman (15-45)
20 K. Drabek (15-45)
21 L. Chisenhall (15-50)
22 B. Wallace (20-45)
23 Y. Alonso (20-45)
24 M. Taylor (20-60)
25 R. Westmoreland (20-60)
26 W. Davis (20-60)
27 T. Beckham (25-50)
28 C. Friedrich (25-60)
29 T. Matzek (25-60)
30 J. Turner (25-60)
31 C. Kelly (25-60)
32 A. Hicks (25-65)
33 D. Gordon (25-65)
34 F. Martinez (30-65)
35 M. Saunders (30-70)
36 C. Carter (30-75)
37 M. Moore (30-75)
38 A. Crow (30-80)
39 M. Gamel (30-80)
40 B. Lawrie (35-75)
41 J. Teheran (35-80)
42 A. Jackson (35-80)
43 A. White (30-90)
44 S. Miller (30-90)
45 Z. Wheeler (30-90)
46 M. Montgomery (40-80)
47 C. Crosby (40-80)
48 Star. Castro (40-80)
49 M. Moustakas (40-90)
50 G. Green (40-90)
51 B. Allen (40-90)
52 J. Castro (40-90)
53 B. Revere (45-80)
54 R. Brignac (50-80)
55 T. Frazier (50-80)
56 D. Norris (45-90)
57 J. Tabata (45-90)
58 D. Tate (40-100)
59 J. Arrieta (50-90)
60 M. Ynoa (50-100)
61 J. Bell (50-100)
62 R. Kalish (50-100)
63 I. Davis (50-100)
64 J. Reddick (50-100)
65 A. Liddi (50-100)
66 C. Withrow (50-100)
67 E. Martin (50-100)
68 J. Iglesias (50-100)
69 T. Reckling (50-100)
70 D. Hudson (50-100)
71 J. Mitchell (50-100)
72 J. Knapp (50-100)
73 J. Lyles (50-100)
74 J. Mejia (50-100)
75 J. Hellickson (50-100)
76 M. Dominguez (50-100)
77 Sim. Castro (50-100)
78 T. Scheppers (50-100)
79 H. Rondon (50-100)
80 J. Vitters (50-100)
81 E. Hosmer (50-100)
82 J. Parker (60-100)
83 D. Espinosa (60-100)
84 B. Lincoln (60-100)
85 T. Flowers (60-100)
86 D. Duffy (60-100)
87 J. Tazawa (60-100)
88 P. Bourjos (60-100)
89 W. Ramos (60-100)
90 T. Neal (60-100)
91 Jay Jackson (60-100)
92 A. Lambo (60-100)
93 T. Melville (60-100)
94 E. Rogers (60-100)
95 H. Lee (75-100)
96 J. Decker (75-100)
97 C. Scarpetta (75-100)
98 D. Bard (80-100)
99 P. Aumont (80-100)
100 W. Flores (80-100)

Honorable Mentions (20)
A. Vizcaino
M. Banuelos
K. Gibson
T. Gillies
N. Weglarz
D. Viciedo
M. Brantley
S. Sizemore
C. Carrasco
C. Heisey
A. Cardenas
A. Poreda
A. Rizzo
C. Triunfel
J. Niese
M. Trout
M. Sano
J. Darnell
L. Anderson
W. Myers

More Possibilities (30)
Z. Britton
Bran. Snyder
C. Lin
M. Bowden
R. Strieby
H. Conger
A. Romine
J. Weeks
G. Desme
N. Barnese
Z. Stewart
B. Borchering
Cody Johnson
A. Cashner
Brett Jackson
J. Mier
T. Robinson
C. Gindl
J. Lucroy
A. Gose
C. D'Arnaud
T. Sanchez
L. Lynn
M. Leake
L. Forsythe
E. Rincon
Ev. Williams
R. Kieschnick
C. Marrero
I. Desmond

I wish I could say that all the players that end up on their list are included in the above. But every year they have a few surprises. But I wouldnt think there'd be more than a handful that I didnt include. Perhaps you disagree.

Comments?

OT - Who is winning (won) the Olympics?

rhd — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 05:52:04 -0000

Sometimes you see the countries listed in of order who won the most medals overall, and sometimes you see them listed by who won the most gold. Currently:

China - 49G 20S 28B = 97 Total

USA - 34G 37S 36B = 107 Total

So, by the 1st method, the US wins, and by the second method, China wins easily. Both methods seem fatally flawed, since a gold is obviously worth more than a silver and a silver more than a bronze. And if you count only the gold medals, what is the point of listing the silvers and bronzes at all? I'm surprised noone seems to use a more intelligent way of determining the winner. In all the sports voting I know about, you get a certain # of pts for a 1st place vote, a lesser # of points for 2nd place, etc. Why dont they use this in the Olympics?

A simple method would be that a gold medal is worth 3 pts, a silver 2 pts and a bronze 1 pt. By this method:

China - 49*3 + 20*2 + 28*1 = 215 pts

USA - 34*3 + 37*2 + 36*1 = 212 pts

and China edges out USA. I think there still are a few medals to be awarded, so the USA could pull out an 11th hour win.

Maybe some of you say that the Olympics are about bringing nations closer together thru sports and it's not important which one wins. In that case, why bother displaying the medal counts by nation at all? If it's worth keeping track of publicly, it's worth doing right.

Of course, you could say that it's silly that there are dozens of medals awarded in some individual events, like swimming, but only 1 set of medals in team competitions like baseball, soccer and basketball that last the entire length of the games, and therefore, medal counts arent as meaningful as they could be. I dont know what can be done about that short of making medals in some competitions worth more than others, which wont happen.

BTW, it seems curious that the host country seems to do much better in the games that they host than in other games. AFAIK, China has never won an Olympics but they are likely to win this one. In 2004, which the USA won, China finished in 3rd place overall and in 2nd in gold medals. Germany won the 1936 games (in Berlin), yet in the 1932 games (in LA) the USA won by a landslide and Germany wasnt even close. Also, the USA won in 1984 (in LA) by a landslide and 1996 by a large margin (Atlanta).

Also, does the winning nation get some sort of an award? If so, I've never heard of it.

Predicting BA's Top 100

rhd — Sun, 10 Feb 2008 11:51:39 -0000

BA will be posting their overall Top 100 prospects soon, maybe next week. I thought it would be fun to try to predict what it will be. I based the list pretty much on the BA Team Top 10's, League Top 20's, last year's BA Top 100 and as many rankings as I know about Callis' Top 50 (almost all of them). But, I also used my own judgment, so there are some discrepancies. I also included 10 Honorable Mentions - BA usually includes these also.

1    Jay    Bruce
2    Evan    Longoria
3    Clay    Buchholz
4    Joba    Chamberlain
5    Clayton    Kershaw
6    Colby    Rasmus
7    Cameron    Maybin
8    David    Price
9    Travis     Snider
10    Homer    Bailey
11    Matt    Wieters
12    Jake    McGee
13    Rick     Porcello
14    Jacoby    Ellsbury
15    Mike    Moustakas
16    Andy    LaRoche
17    Andrew    McCutchen
18    Brandon    Wood
19    Matt    LaPorta
20    Wade    Davis
21    Reid    Brignac
22    Fernando    Martinez
23    Franklin    Morales
24    Carlos    Gonzalez
25    Kosuke    Fukudome
26    Joey    Votto
27    Jason    Heyward
28    Jordan    Schafer
29    Angel    Villalona
30    Jose    Tabata
31    Jeff    Clement
32    Johnny     Cueto
33    Chris    Marrero
34    Desmond    Jennings
35    Austin     Jackson
36    Brett    Anderson
37    Lars    Anderson
38    Gio    Gonzalez
39    Adam    Miller
40    Nick    Adenhart
41    Chase    Headley
42    Josh    Vitters
43    Deolis    Guerra
44    Fautino    De Los Santos
45    Ross    Detwiler
46    Elvis    Andrus
47    Jarrod    Parker
48    Chris    Volstad
49    Matt    Antonelli
50    Ian    Stewart
51    Dexter    Fowler
52    Daniel    Cortes
53    Tim    Alderson
54    Justin    Masterson
55    Phillipe    Aumont
56    Chris    Tillman
57    Carlos    Triunfel
58    Carlos    Gomez
59    Carlos    Carrasco
60    Chin-Lung    Hu
61    Daric    Barton
62    Luke    Hochevar
63    Ian    Kennedy
64    Jair    Jurrjens
65    Jed    Lowrie
66    Manny    Parra
67    Neil    Walker
68    Geovany    Soto
69    J.R.    Towles
70    Chris    Davis
71    Eric    Hurley
72    Greg    Reynolds
73    Brandon    Jones
74    Gorkys    Hernandez
75    Hiroki    Kuroda
76    Jordan    Walden
77    Matt    Latos
78    Stephen    Pearce
79    Hank    Conger
80    Taylor    Teagarden
81    Scott    Elbert
82    Max    Scherzer
83    Radhames    Liz
84    Madison    Bumgarner
85    Aaron    Poreda
86    Beau    Mills
87    Wladimir    Balentien
88    Jeff    Niemann
89    Troy    Patton
90    Chuck    Lofgren
91    Hector    Gomez
92    Brent    Lillibridge
93    Michael    Bowden
94    Tyler    Colvin
95    Adrian    Cardenas
96    Bill    Rowell
97    Colin    Balester
98    Mike    Burgess
99    Drew    Stubbs
100    Chris    Perez
HM    Ryan    Kalish
HM    Will    Inman
HM    Jeremy     Hellickson
HM    Henry    Sosa
HM    Jaime    Garcia
HM    Wes    Hodges
HM    Brett    Sinkbeil
HM    Cole    Rohrbough
HM    Bryan    Anderson
HM    Nick    Blackburn

There are 50 AL players and 50 NL players, so that seems right. There are 55 hitters and 45 pitchers, so that seems about right, too. Tampa has 7 guys, Boston has 6 and Cincy, Oakland, Colorado and Baltimore (surprise!) have 5 each. I dont think any team will get shut out, like San Diego was last year (the Santana trade may have saved Minnesota), altho the White Sox are a possibility. There are 5 teams w only 1 player (Detroit, Toronto, Mets, Houston and ChiSox). I wont bother listing them, but I count 20 guys that made last year's list that wont make it this year, which also seems about right.

Comparison: Sickels and Mound Talk's community lists

rhd — Wed, 23 Jan 2008 02:29:46 -0000

It was remarkable how similar the 2 lists were 1 thru 29. But there's been a divergence since then. Here are the players on either list that are ranked as high as #61, plus the ones on our current poll:

John    Mound
Sickels    Talk
1    1    Jay    Bruce
2    3    Evan    Longoria
3    2    Colby    Rasmus
4    4    Clay    Buchholz
5    5    Clayton    Kershaw
6    6    Joba    Chamberlain
7    11    Cameron    Maybin
8    8    Homer    Bailey
9    9    David    Price
10    10    Andy    LaRoche
11    7    Jake    McGee
12    16    Johnny     Cueto
13    13    Travis     Snider
14    14    Brandon    Wood
15    15    Matt    Wieters
16    12    Jacoby    Ellsbury
17.5    17    Joey    Votto
17.5    18    Andrew    McCutchen
19    19    Wade    Davis
20.5    21    Reid    Brignac
20.5    20    Chase    Headley
22    22    Daric    Barton
23    23    Rick     Porcello
24    25    Franklin    Morales
25    26    Jeff    Clement
26    24    Matt    LaPorta
27    29    Mike    Moustakas
28    28    Chris    Marrero
29    27    Fernando    Martinez
30    32    Matt    Antonelli
31    33    Desmond    Jennings
32    40    Carlos    Gonzalez
33    41    Jason    Heyward
34    30    Fautino    De Los Santos
35    64    Jed    Lowrie
36    44    Angel    Villalona
37    35    Gio    Gonzalez
38    42    Ian    Kennedy
39    47    Carlos    Triunfel
40    51    Stephen    Pearce
41    43    Jordan    Schafer
41.5    NA    Kosuke    Fukudome
42    65    Adam    Miller
43    38    Nick    Adenhart
44    31    Wladimir    Balentien
45    46    Austin     Jackson
46    36    Eric    Hurley
47    39    Jose    Tabata
48    87    Geovany    Soto
49    58    Lars    Anderson
50    70    Chin-Lung    Hu
51    NR    Chris    Davis
52    91    Luke    Hochevar
53    61    Jarrod    Parker
54    34    Taylor    Teagarden
55    NR    Manny    Parra
56    75    Deolis    Guerra
57    62    Neil    Walker
58    53    Josh    Vitters
59    57    Ross    Detwiler
60    59    Hank    Conger
61    49    Elvis    Andrus
x    45    Carlos    Carrasco
NA    52    Carlos    Gomez
x    67    Brett    Anderson
x    76    J.R.    Towles
x    81    Mike    Burgess
x    82    Ian    Stewart
x    99    Brent    Lillibridge
x    NR    Jordan    Walden
x    NR    Cole    Rohrbough
x    NR    James    McDonald
--    37    Justin    Masterson
--    48    Beau    Mills
--    50    Tim    Alderson
--    54    Max    Scherzer
--    55    Scott    Elbert
--    56    Will    Inman
--    60    Jeremy    Jeffress

x = on current poll

The players that differ by more than 13 places on the lists are Lowrie (+29), Soto (+39), Davis (at least +49), Hu (+20), Hochevar (+39), Teagarden (-20), A. Miller (+23), Guerra (+19) and C. Carrasco (at least -16). Of these, I think they have Lowrie, Hochevar and Davis more where they should be (altho I think Davis should be on the back end of the list), whereas I think we're more right on Guerra, I think they're even more wrong on Teagarden than we are and I think we'll end up being more right when we rank Carrasco. Also, we'll be closer on Walden, who should get ranked soon, whereas he didnt make their list. And, I think they're way off on Masterson, Mills, Scherzer, Elbert and Jeffress who we havent ranked. I think all these belong toward the back end, and Jeffress probably shouldnt be on at all.

Gomez wasnt eligible for our list, and evidently Fukudome (and Kuroda) werent eligible for theirs.

Overall, both lists are good, but I like ours better right now.

MoundTalk Community Top 100

rhd — Sun, 16 Dec 2007 18:23:56 -0000

FYI, the MoundTalk site has completed its own Community Top 100. Link:

http://www.moundtalk.com/prospects/moundtalk-community-top-100-prospects-2008/

It's similarity to our list so far is remarkable. Maybin and McGee are switched, Ellsbury and Cueto are switched and it looks like Morales and LaPorta will be switched. Otherwise, it's identical.

rhd's Top 75

rhd — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 04:20:29 -0000

Here is my list of top 75 prospects. I am sending this same list to Slurve. The list I update on a regular basis is for roto, so it takes me a while to turn it into a 'real' list. Could use a little more work but Slurve's deadline approaches, so here it is.

It's kind of a 'safe' list, I suppose. But, FWIW, and I think unlike many of the posters here (correct me if I'm wrong), I've seen a lot of these guys play, albeit briefly.

I could have posted a Top 100 (or Top 300, FTM), but when you get past 75 or so, I find it problematic who to include because you start getting to players that you're more and more unsure about.

Comments are welcome (praise, as well as criticism!). I generally visit the board after work, and I'm signing off for the evening, so it may be a while before I respond.

1    Jay    Bruce    Cin    OF
2    Colby    Rasmus    StL    OF
3    Evan    Longoria    TB    3B
4    Clay    Buchholz    Bos    SP
5    Clayton    Kershaw    LAD    SP
6    Cameron    Maybin    Fla    OF
7    Joba    Chamberlain    NYY    SP/RP
8    Pedro    Alvarez    College    3B
9    Travis     Snider    Tor    OF/1B
10    Chris    Marrero    Was    OF
11    Homer    Bailey    Cin    SP
12    David    Price    TB    SP
13    Andy    LaRoche    LAD    3B/2B
14    Andrew    McCutchen    Pit    OF
15    Fernando    Martinez    NYM    OF
16    Jake    McGee    TB    SP
17    Reid    Brignac    TB    SS
18    Brandon    Wood    LAA    3B
19    Matt    Wieters    Bal    C
20    Mike    Moustakas    KC    3B/OF
21    Rick     Porcello    Det    SP
22    Jordan    Schafer    Atl    OF
23    Jacoby    Ellsbury    Bos    OF
24    Carlos    Gomez    NYM    OF
25    Joey    Votto    Cin    1B
26    Jeff    Clement    Sea    C
27    Jason    Heyward    Atl    OF/1B
28    Desmond    Jennings    TB    OF
29    Chase    Headley    SD    3B/OF
30    Carlos    Gonzalez    Ari    OF
31    Lars    Anderson    Bos    1B
32    Matt    LaPorta    Mil    1B
33    Angel    Villalona    SF    3B
34    Carlos    Triunfel    Sea    SS
35    Wade    Davis    TB    SP
36    Deolis    Guerra    NYM    SP
37    Johnny     Cueto    Cin    SP
38    Bill    Rowell    Bal    3B
39    Matt    Antonelli    SD    2B/3B
40    Gio    Gonzalez    CHW    SP
41    Fautino    De Los Santos    CHW    SP
42    Chris    Tillman    Sea    SP
43    Daric    Barton    Oak    1B
45    Brandon    Jones    Atl    OF
46    Jose    Tabata    NYY    OF
47    Dexter    Fowler    Col    OF
48    Adam    Miller    Cle    SP/RP
50    Austin     Jackson    NYY    OF
49    Mike    Burgess    Was    OF
44    Josh    Vitters    CHC    3B
51    Chin-Lung    Hu    LAD    SS
52    Ryan    Kalish    Bos    OF
53    Elvis    Andrus    Tex    SS
54    Gorkys    Hernandez    Atl    OF
55    Nick    Adenhart    LAA    SP
56    Carlos    Carrasco    Phi    SP
57    Ian    Kennedy    NYY    SP
58    Will    Inman    SD    SP
59    Eric    Hurley    Tex    SP
60    Justin    Smoak    College    1B
61    Kosuke    Fukudome    Japan    OF
62    Wladimir    Balentien    Sea    OF
63    Neil    Walker    Pit    3B
64    Jed    Lowrie    Bos    SS/2B
65    Geovany    Soto    CHC    C
66    Brett    Anderson    Ari    SP
67    Jeremy     Hellickson    TB    SP
68    Michael    Bowden    Bos    SP
69    Henry    Sosa    SF    SP
70    Cole    Rohrbough    Atl    SP
71    Jarrod    Parker    Ari    SP
72    Scott    Elbert    LAD    SP
73    Jaime    Garcia    StL    SP
74    Ian    Stewart    Col    3B/2B/1B/OF
75    J.R.    Towles    Hou    C

Perfect game in Japan Series finale

rhd — Mon, 05 Nov 2007 05:40:06 -0000

There was a combined perfect game thrown in the finale of the Japan Series. The starter, Daisuke Yamai pitched 8 IP and Hitoki Iwase threw the final inning. Score was 1-0, clinching the series for the Chunichi Dragons over the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. The only run scored on a sac fly.

Now that the series is over, eligible players have 10 days (until 11/12) to file for free agency. Fukudome, who happens to play for Chunichi but evidently still is hurt, is expected to file Monday (today). Iwase, who would likely draw a lot of interest from MLB clubs, also is eligible, but it is uncertain whether he wants come to MLB.

AFL Games

rhd — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 02:14:45 -0000

I'm taking a little baseball vacation in Arizona next week. Plan to see a bunch of AFL games. There are several scheduled games between AFL clubs and Team USA. Also, Team China. I'll give a report on this board when I get back.

Anyone seen any AFL games in person this year? If so, how about some 'scouting reports'?

Project Prospect mid-season Top 50

rhd — Tue, 26 Jun 2007 03:13:38 -0000

Project Prospect has posted its mid-season top 50. Link:

http://www.projectprospect.com/midseason-top-50-07

All our 13 choices so far are in its top 15. The 2 guys missing on our list so far are Rasmus (#8) and Wood (#9). Some curious choices are Asdrubal Cabrera at #34, and Sonnanstine at #50 and Carlos Gonzalez completely missing the list, altho he is an honorable mention. Also, it's surprising to see Lars Anderson at #38, Whittleman at #48 and Scherzer at #45. Those guys are having great years, but they look like overranks so far to me. Scherzer has a total of 22 pro IP. Anderson, like Scherzer, had no pro experience before this year. Whittleman is repeating Low-A. Note also, Guerra detractors, that he's ranked #35.

Guerra and velocity gain

rhd — Mon, 19 Feb 2007 02:20:08 -0000

Since there was so much controversy over whether Guerra, and 'projectable' pitchers in general, gain velocity as they mature, I decided to submit a question Re: this to 'Ask BA' this past week. To my pleasant surprise, Jim Callis answered it right away. Below is part of my question (he actually changed part of it, for some reason):

What roughly is the percentage chance that (Guerra) in particular, and projectable pitchers in general, will experience at least a modest gain in velocity (1-2 mph)? How much chance of a significant gain? Is this more of a function of mechanics than anything else? Do any empirical studies of this issue exist?

Callis' answer:

I don't know of any empirical studies that exist, but if they do and someone has access to them, I'd love to see the results. Such a study would take some time, but it would be fairly easy for a club to create a database by taking its scouting reports along with height and age data to see how pitchers developed over a number of years.
While I can't give you exact percentages, I can speak in more general terms. Given his very young age and very lanky frame, I'd expect Guerra to be throwing consistently in the low 90s, maybe harder, five years down the road. It's a function of many things: age, build, present velocity, mechanics, arm speed, what kind of throwing program he's on, etc

So, he thinks Guerra will gain signficant velocity based on his general age and physical characteristics. That's more or less in line w what my thinking was before the issue came up. I think that pretty much justifies us putting him where we did on the Community list. Now, let's see if BA puts him in their Top 100.