I created a Yahoo tournament pool just for my fellow Chronicloids. The group ID is 77181 and the password is interrobang. You can use this link to join and fill out your bracket. Entry deadline is 12:15 PM EDT on Thursday, March 15.

Scoring:

• "First Four" games do not count.
• Round of 64: 1 point per game, upset bonus multiplier=1
• Round of 32: 2 points per game, upset bonus multiplier=1
• Regional semifinals: 4 points per game, upset bonus multiplier=2
• Regional finals: 8 points per game, upset bonus multiplier=2
• National semifinals: 16 points per game, upset bonus multiplier=5
• National championship game: 32 points, upset bonus multiplier=5

Upset bonus multiplier: if you correctly pick an upset, you get bonus points equal to the upset bonus multiplier for that round, times the difference in seeds. For example, if you correctly pick Louisville, a 4 seed, to beat Michigan State, a 1 seed, in the West Region semifinal, then you get 4 points (for the regional semifinal) plus a bonus of 6, calculated as 3 (the difference between the 4 and 1 seeds) times 2 (the upset bonus multiplier for the regionals).

NOTE: Yahoo is doing the scoring, so I can't say for sure; but I assume you get upset points whether you predicted the outcome to be an upset or not. For example, if you pick Memphis to upset Michigan State and Louisville to beat Memphis, then you didn't pick an upset in picking Louisville. However, if Memphis doesn't beat Michigan State but Louisville does, you still receive the upset bonus for the Louisville win even though you didn't predict it to be an upset. Is that clear? I didn't think so. Whatever. It's all conjecture on my part anyway.

Tiebreakers: you pick the final score of the championship game. The first tiebreaker is the closest total score to the actual total; the second tiebreaker is the closest score for the winning team, and the third tiebreaker is the closest score for the losing team. If the three tiebreakers fail to produce a winner, the prize(s) will be divided equally among the winners.

Prizes:

I cannot offer a prize of an automatic front page bump for your 1500-word essay on the merits of the BCS system or the advisability of inviting Strayer University to the Big East Conference; however, if you like, I will send you an autographed (by me) picture of an autographed (by Denny Crum) program from the latter's final game as the Cardinals' head coach at Freedom Hall.

Yahoo and DiGiorno are doing a promo offering a $10,000 prize for the best bracket submitted overall. Scoring for the $10,000 prize will use the above point values per round, but will not use the upset bonus. There's also a $5,000,000 prize for a perfect bracket. To be eligible for either of these prizes, you have to explicitly register for the promotion, and you have to give them your phone number. I don't know what they plan to do with your phone number, but I'm sure I won't see it. Unless you make it the name of your bracket or something.

I am working on a computerized basketball rating system and I thought I'd throw it out there for my fellow 'Cloids to comment on. The system rates and ranks 1542 teams based on (currently) 13,347 game scores* from Peter Wolfe's UCLA website which includes NCAA, NAIA, NCCAA, USCAA, CIS, CCAA ACCA, "and a few others."

Each team is awarded a rating based on its average point spread, positive or negative, adjusted by strength of schedule. The rating is the presumed margin of victory or defeat versus a hypothetical average team (#706 Briar Cliff, with a rating of -0.01, comes close).

The Cardinals fare better than I would have expected, considering their offensive woes, currently coming in at #32 with a rating of 37.11, just behind Purdue (37.23) and just ahead of UConn (36.90). The other big surprise is that Murray State is 'way down at #73. The Racers' score differential is 15.95 ppg and their SOS is 16.33, yielding a rating of 32.28.

Here's my Top 10:

1	Ohio State (50.94)
2	Kansas (48.17)
3	Kentucky (47.49)
4	Syracuse (46.84)
5	North Carolina (46.42)
6	Missouri (45.65)
7	Michigan St (45.64)
8	Wisconsin (44.77)
9	Florida (44.11)
10	Indiana (44.02)

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Tomorrow night I will probably experience why the 300-level club seats are more expensive than the 100-level seats behind the Cardinal bench.

The latest forecast from TWC calls for the rain to stop between noon and 3 PM. The temperature at game time will be in the low 40s, with winds WSW at 15-25 mph. That puts the wind chill somewhere around 32 at kickoff, and getting colder through the night. The National Weather Service has the rain ending closer to game time, with lower winds, and slightly higher temperatures, but still cold and windy. I predict that my "Fear The Bird" T-shirt will not be seen at the game. It will be hidden under a red UofL sweatshirt which will also not be seen under a reasonably heavy black coat.

But more important than the weather's impact on my comfort or attire is the question of how it will affect the game. I'd think it would hamper the quarterbacks' accuracy, thus favoring a running game over a passing game.

Statistically, our rushing game looks better than theirs and so does our rush defense. We've averaged 3.39 yards per carry and given up only 3.05; the Wolfpack has allowed 3.76 while averaging 3.09.

Turning to the air game, we've got a slightly higher pass rating than they do, but our opponents' rating has been significantly higher than their opponents' - largely because NC State's defense has collected 24 interceptions to Louisville's 9.

I think between the weather and NC State's prowess at defending passes, Charlie will opt to focus the Cardinal offense on a run-oriented game; and I think weather that favors the running game gives the Cardinals an edge over an NC State team that is more reliant on the pass. What do you think?

Poll

Will wet ground and cold, windy weather favor Louisville or NC State in the Belk Bowl?

64%

Louisville

47 votes

4%

NC State

3 votes

31%

neither

23 votes

73 votes | Poll has closed

GCA lamented the lack of a video of me singing. She can continue to lament, because I couldn't learn iMovie in a day. However, I did record some audio, which is embedded after the jump (caution: the audio plays automaticlly and the lyrics are slightly NSFW). The engineering is awful and the harmonies are worse (which is all on me, because I played, sang and recorded all the tracks myself) but I didn't have time to get it perfect because it had to be posted before the WKU game. I hope you enjoy listening half as much as I enjoyed doing it, because that would mean I had twice as much fun as you.

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I was about to buy some 50-yard-line tickets to the Belk Bowl, but a little voice in my head kept whispering "What if we don't go?"

"Impossible," I whispered back. "Everyone says that's where we're going. West Virginia is going to the Orange, Notre Dame is stealing the Champs..."

"And Cincinnati beat us heads up, and is rated higher, and may be more attractive to the Belk Bowl people," said the voice.

"Yes," I said aloud, "but that would be a rematch with N. C. State, and the bowl committees don't like rematches."

"Who are you talking to?" asked my wife.

The voice in my head went on. "You'd better check out the SB*Nation bowl projections," it cautioned.

"Exactly," I said. "They have us in the Belk Bowl."

"Who does?" said my wife.

"Against?" asked the voice.

"North Caro- North Car- North - Oh no!" I said.

"Now do you see my point?" said the voice. "Cincinnati versus North Carolina is not a rematch, but Louisville versus North Carolina is. The Bearcats get the Belk Bowl."

"OK, so we go to Yankee Stadium for the Pinstripe Bowl," I said hopefully.

"We do?" replied the wife.

"Nope," said the voice. "The Yankees want a New York-area team in the Bronx. Rutgers has that sewn up."

"Don't tell me we're going to the Liberty Bowl!" I shouted.

"I'm not telling you anything," said my wife. "And calm down. You're scaring the dog."

The voice wasn't as kind. "No, the Liberty - or the BBVA Compass Bowl - will choose between Louisville and Pitt. Pitt beat the Cardinals head-to-head, and is a sexier name for TV. Everyone thinks Louisville is a basketball school."

"But that means..." I blubbered.

"Yep," said the voice. "Put on your beef helmet and get your tickets to St. Pete."

My wife and the dog both went running from the room as I screamed "DAMN YOU, NOTRE DAME! AND F&*( YOU, UCONN!"

Is this it? Only if  I can find a way to fill seventy-five words before someone else starts one. Which is a distinct possibility, of course. And we would need a game talisman. I guess an orange would be appropriate. Let me see what I can find on the Google.

Well, here's Otto.

 

I think that will do nicely. Am I up to seventy-five words yet? No, but I'm getting close. There, that does it.

It seems it often ends this way: the track of the last game repeats in miniature the trajectory of the season.

First quarter: beat Kentucky, lose to FIU, beat Murray State. (Ugly, but the Cards come out of the quarter with a 3-0 lead).

Second quarter: lose to Marshall, lose to North Carolina, lose to Cincinnati. Downright ugly. A string of missed opportunities put the Cardinals in a deep hole. (In the USF game, the Cards deviated a little by salvaging the last-minute TD that changed the momentum of the game, but I'll just say they started the third quarter 35 seconds early.)

Second half: beat Rutgers, beat Syracuse, beat West Virginia; then with the situation seemingly well in hand, lose to Pittsburgh before pulling out the win against UConn to get bowl eigible. (Back and forth, regain and surrender the lead before getting it back) FInally, beat USF to clinch a share of the Big East title. Icing on the cake! (The final score to put the Cards up by 10 and the game out of reach.)

We had our ups and downs in this season and this game, as such a young team will; but we wound up defying the predictions that had us finishing 7th of 8 (and those that had us losing to USF in the final game) and clinching in the end at least a share of the Big East championship.

If we ultimately get to the Orange Bowl, we will likely face a BCS #5 Virginia Tech team that might or might not embarrass us in our second-ever BCS bowl appearance; but I'll take that chance. With this scrappy bunch, nothing is impossible. In any event, they've made this up-and-down season, like they made this up-and-down game, one to remember.

For those who wanted to see and/or play with the spreadsheet Quinn used in calculating the probabilities of various scenarios involving the Big East BCS berth, I've posted it here. Good work, Quinn!

Sorry it took so long to get it posted. I received it some days ago, but it went into my quarantine folder because I didn't have the sender in my address book, and I just found it during last night's basketball game.

Go Cards!