Taking advantage of CFBStats.com's 5 years worth of sacks-allowed data, I've expanded from my 2011-only sacks allowed per pass attempt to show team-by-team values from 2007 through 2011.

First, some random carnage against Brett Favre.

...with a dash of Brandon Jenkins and limping Jacory Harris.

Voilà. And now for the breakdown.

Continue reading this post »

A sack is a sack. It can be a drive killer, a game changer, a game killer. And it can hurt:

Bit of a spear from former Seminole Marcus Ball; but it's probably the best move he made with his head during his time at FSU.

2 sacks allowed per game might sound ok to you. But not if your team only passes the ball 10 times -- 20% of your team's pass attempts result in a sack. If your team passes it 60 times, you're probably pretty happy with a slim 3.3% sack rate per pass.

So, let's adjust FBS team sacks allowed totals based on how many times they threw the ball.

Note: The following table may be painful for Nole fans. Or said another way; only slightly less painful than a delayed MLB blitz up the middle.

Continue reading this post »

FSU wound up with a top recruiting class out of the 2012 cycle. They're ranked as high as 2nd by ESPN and 247Sports, 6th by CBSSports, 8th by Rivals, and 10th by Scout. The large variation here is most likely due to quantity of recruits taken and a team's calculated "score;" the basic formula is the sum total of the quality of each recruit. ESPN and 247 attempt to balance the quality/quantity divide a bit. Needless to say, unless you're the crank hater down the hall who isn't satisfied until FSU gets 5* recruits every cycle at every position -- you've got to be thrilled with the continued elite recruiting performances with CJF at the helm, with 2012 being no exception.

Bama is touted by those sites as having the #1 class (#2 by Scout), and rightfully so. No team besides Texas amassed both quality and quantity this past recruiting cycle. With limited scholarships available, FSU had to reign in the total number of committable offers. Clearly, Alabama - coming off a record 14th national championship - had the upper-hand in recruiting gravitas.

Or did they?

See after the jump how FSU and Alabama went head-to-head in pursuing recruits offered by both schools.

Continue reading this post »

Today we'll look at TFLs, but from the offense's perspective. Unless you're running the Hail Mary as your base offense, the key to moving the ball and scoring is getting 1st downs. And unless you're facing FSU with ACC Refs on your side, you'll need to get those 1st downs legitimately with positive yardage plays. Sounds simple enough. I provide a breakdown of TFLs into Sacks and Stuffs, and then calculate the percentage of plays that an offense incurred negative yardage on.

You could stay here, but I'd jump.

Continue reading this post »

First things first; it's pronounced "Mer-lin." Say it with me: Mer-lin. None of this mare-a-lynd business. And if you're ever in Baltimore, it's Bal-duh-more. ::Editor's note -- the Merlin pronunciation is being contested. We will settle this with a Bluecrab shuck-off. Baldumore stands as argued:

Onto football matters, there are pockets along the Mid-Atlantic that are just brimming with athletic talent, both in basketball and football. Virginia Tech for years has pilfered SE Virginia for excellent - if not elite - recruits. Ronald Curry, Michael and Marcus Vick, the Adibi brothers, Wayne & Terry Kirby, Bruce Smith; just to name a few. The state of Maryland has produced NFL products like Darnell Dockett and Vernon Davis (thanks, newdynastynole) from its D.C. / Baltimore exchange program, as well as enjoying being in the backyard of the recruiting beds of Pennsylvania, Virginia, and New Jersey. Having said that, Maryland's 4-year recruiting ranking is 37th (FSU is 5th). Perhaps high-energy and in-your-face coach Randy Edsall can move them up a spot or two.

Poll

Watching the replay of an FSU football game is mandatory because:

48%

The 1st time you're watching the ball; the 2nd time is for watching specific players and units.

533 votes

27%

I was not coherent/sober/in my right mind during the 1st viewing.

306 votes

23%

I am a glutton for punishment.

260 votes

1099 votes | Poll has closed

Continue reading this post »

A little something about the offensive line to open up. This assessment of the zone-blocking scheme by its innovator Alex Gibbs is telling:

... RARE for [Cs and Gs] to play early... My center must be football brilliant....INSIDE 3 must be brilliant. Huge amount of time is spent on these guys making decisions.  Guards must be able to decipher intricate details from the opponent's stance.

If a zone scheme requires the inside 3 to be brilliant, we've got one guy in Spurlock whose playing with a bad noggin, a serviceable 2-week-old C in Stork, and a freshly-demoted JUCO LG. And don't forget Datko was making the line-calls pre-snap. Yeah, that same guy who won't be playing for us anymore. ::facepalm::

Another quote from Gibbs:

...Injury history is very important;  don't want guys who miss games, because of the importance of continuity. 4 of the 5 usually get offseason surgery.

Sanders, Datko both with offseason surgeries and missed Spring ball plus some Fall practice time. Spurlock missed almost the same amount of time due to concussions, and McMahon and Hudson graduated.

Let's all agree that injuries are to be expected. Especially along the OL. Notice that there has been maybe 1 minor knee injury (Hudson 2 years ago - slight MCL sprain & out vs. Maryland) amongst our OL, and Trickett apparently does not encourage his guys to wear knee braces like some programs do - often forcing their OL to wear them, needed or not. However, there have been more than enough ankle, hip, and shoulder injuries/surgeries to go around.

NFL teams carry between 8-10 active offensive linemen. FSU currently is carrying about 15 or 16 scholarship OL, which is about the average for D1 programs. So, twice as many as some NFL teams carry.

But that's comparing apples and oranges. Most of the college OL out of that 16 are not ready to meaningfully contribute. The 90s Nebraska method for OL was redshirt their 1st year, practice and lift the next two years, and hit the field no sooner than their 4th year in the program.

We currently have a 17-year-old at left tackle.

Also consider that the NFL has in-season free agent acquisition opportunities, whereas the college ranks only have off-season recruiting to address positional needs.

What am I getting at? That the 4 out of your starting 5 OL offseason surgeries means you have to change the numbers game on the amount of OL you acquire annually and keep in stable. And due to NCAA practice time limits, offseason surgeries can be absolutely crippling to a player's development.

To me, that adds up to needing the following bodies: 5 starters, 2 equally capable upperclassmen back-ups, 3 3rd years, 3 2nd years, 3 RS, and 4 Fr. I'd like to see FSU move to 20 scholarship OL on roster given the amount of season- and career-ending injuries - along with Trickett-induced attrition - that can undermine offensive performances like we've seen this year.

Continue reading this post »

There's this heavy veil - a lingering flatulence - permeating the ethos of Tomahawk Nation these days. Shared by most, but visible to all, FSU fans cannot help but realize the following truthitude:

I can't help but wonder if OU beat us twice. I'll give credit to Clemson's Chad Morris and Tajh Boyd for taking advantage of the extra plays and 21-point swing due to penalties. But a 5-point victory at home under those conditions hardly makes Clemson a world-beater. But at the end of the day, the Noles did not take care of business.

Yes, a national championship run disappeared while Kenny Stills played elevator over Greg Reid. And FSU will need to win out in their conference schedule and hope Clemson stumbles twice to lock-up the division.

But this season is far from over.

Continue reading this post »

One of the great in-season mysteries is the variability in a defense's performance from week to week. A defense may seem to play out of its mind one week (vs. OU) and look lost at times the next (@ CU).  But the real question is: Which week's defense is the real defense?

Probably neither. Or rather, somewhere between the two. The OU game featured the loudest Doak Stadium in many fans' collective memories (UM '05 was close), which definitely limited OU from consecutive hurry-up snaps. Coupled with 2 tune-up games and what must have been 9+ months of coaching dedicated to this game, I think we saw a defense play above its "baseline," holding the juggernaut OU offense to 4.7 ypp and 23 points on 66 plays.

However, 5.2 ypp the next week week at Clemson isn't anything to scoff at. But they were able to get off an extra 21 snaps due to 4 major penalties, giving them a total of 85 plays to FSU's 67. The D did give up its two biggest pass plays to Watkins (62 yards) and Hopkins (50 yards), but it's not like Clemson is playing without talent. While their OL/DL recruiting the last two years has been average, Clemson's collection of skill players is apparent.

What then can we say about FSU's defense?

Continue reading this post »

Brace yourself. Er'body up in this joint is injured. Well, at least on offense anyway. And it doesn't help FSU hasn't won a game in Death Valley since Bush:2, Sn:1. But as we distance ourselves farther and farther from the Lost Decade©, (reasonable) expectations are beginning to rebound. The defense performed valiantly in a 23-13 home loss last weekend, and as a whole this FSU squad has nothing to be ashamed of. However, the potent combination of injuries, officiating, and OU-execution proved too much for the home team. Fortunately, we play the very next week a completely inconsequential conference opponent, from which FSU does not need rest or healing from injuries to play at a high level for. Thanks goes out to ACC Basketball Commissioner John Swofford and new-Tennessee AD Dave Hart for their incredible scheduling efforts.

Continue reading this post »

An early look at FSU's Week 3 opponent prior to Bud's Breakdown© on Friday. First, the OU fight song:

Boomer Sooner, Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner, Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner, Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner, OK U!
 
Oklahoma, Oklahoma
Oklahoma, Oklahoma
Oklahoma, Oklahoma
Oklahoma, OK U!
 
I'm a Sooner born and Sooner bred
and when I die, I'll be Sooner dead
Rah Oklahoma, Rah Oklahoma
Rah Oklahoma, OK U!

Kudos for keeping it short, to the point, stealing the tune from Yale, and - most importantly - effective use of 'Rah', which lends itself nicely to the cheer of "Rah-Rah-Ree; kick'em in the knee -- Rah-Rah-Ras; kick'em in the other knee." It's good to keep a fight song simple enough so that graduates can memorize it. (This slam is in fact a confession from a Norman-native and OU-fan whom I knew long ago during my undergrad days -- so it stands as authoritative.)

Continue reading this post »

Bud has asked me to look for odds-and-ends about FSU's upcoming opponent each Thursday. CSU is forcing my hand on focusing on the former rather than the latter for this edition.

Continue reading this post »

In less than two days, we'll be able to look upon Year 2 of the program Jimbo is building here in Tallahassee. In only his first year as head coach, Jimbo and Co. dominated the in-state championship with ringing victories over rivals UM and UF.

While Jimbo has had a hand in the offense as OC under Bowden starting in 2008, he was at most 4th on the totem pole prior to Jimbo's promotion to HC. But (most of) the playcalling was Jimbo's. With the hiring of Rick Trickett, the offense completely morphed as the blocking style and quality of linemen changed, commensurately. And we can see the change when we look at some of the advanced football rankings.

Check out FSU's '05-'10 S&P+ Offensive Rankings, broken down by rush offense ranking, pass offense ranking, and overall offense ranking. S&P+ is an advanced metric produced by the great people over at FootballOutsiders which takes into account Success Rate, Equivalent Points per Play, and Opponent adjustments.

2006 was the final year for Jeff Bowden's Rainbow offense. The passing offense was still in the top half of D1 schools, but the rushing offense continued to drop from 2005. Enter Wake Forest and the cold November rain and a 30-0 shutout in Doak. (I remember staying through the entire game well after the rest of the student body had left because I wanted "to witness the end of FSU football."). By the way, we pulled out an 8-point squeaker against MAC powerhouse Western Michigan #smh that next week.

Enter Jimbo Fisher early January of 2007.

Jimbo couldn't turnaround the offense nearly as fast as the fanbase might have hoped for. In fact, besides a 1-rank increase in pass offense, the rush offense - under a patchwork OL - continued to plummet to nearly the bottom quarter of D1 rushing offenses.

2008 would be a much different story. Though the passing offense suffered, the rush offense was a revelation. As the OL matured and CP7 came into his own as an elite college QB, the offense has done nothing but become a Top 10 overall offense over the last two years.

Defensively, there has been a general negative trend over the 6-year span - with the exception of an Everette Brown- & Geno Hayes-powered defense in '07. 2008 was a clear warning that FSU was getting manhandled in the trenches featuring pass-rushing ends and often-conquered interior tackles. The drop from 23rd to 64th from 2007 to 2008 should have prepared the fanbase on its own merit for the shellacking that the 2009 defense would take.

But the 2010 Stoops-led defense would recover impressively: 54 spots in rush defense ranking, 45 spots in pass defense ranking, and 47 spots in overall ranking. 2010 shows FSU finishing with its best passing defense in over 5 years in 2010. That is impressive. FSU finished 17th in Passes Broken Up per play and 23rd in Passes Defended (PBU+INT) per play.

Conversation Starter: What have been the watershed moments on-the-field where you saw FSU's offense or defense improve?

JIMBO FISHER: Very excited to open the season. I think we're ready to play somebody else. I think we're tired of banging on each other. But we've had a very physical camp, a very good camp. For the most part we're relatively healthy. I loved the guys' attitudes throughout camp. We've worked very hard, continued to get better, and a lot of our younger guys, you could see where some of their contributions could possibly be made and they're developing some depth for the rest of our unit. But I was very happy with the veterans and how they performed and how they conducted themselves throughout camp with their leadership and with their practice habits. Like I say, looking forward to this Saturday.

Q. I know it was four years ago, but how much did you use this and how much can you get the attention of these kids by showing them what Louisiana Monroe did to Alabama in 2007?
JIMBO FISHER: We don't discuss that. I mean, we know that these things happen all the time. I mean, look at James Madison last year, it was a 1-AA, look at App State a couple years ago at Michigan. Kids know about all those things, and I don't like dwelling on negative things, I don't like dwelling on anything that's happened in the past. I just like to concentrate on us playing the best we can play, and I don't ever go that way in how you prepare kids.
Our kids know that everybody has got a good football team. They can look at the film last year when they Arkansas 7-0 at halftime and 14-0 in the third quarter and had opportunities in the game and did very well.
From that standpoint, I think we just have to worry about ourselves and try to play the best we can play.


Q. I'm wondering how much with what has gone on at the University of Miami in relation to the NCAA has been a lesson to you and your team. I know you have some South Florida kids. Have you spoken to your players about boosters and used what's happened at Miami as a way to approach the subject maybe?

JIMBO FISHER: You know, before the Miami situation occurred, we always talked to our guys, and like you say, you try to educate them in every way, shape and form about the pitfalls out there that go on in the world today and the way folks get to you. Sometimes it's innocently and sometimes it's guys with a purpose. You don't ever know. That's something as a coach you constantly have to educate your kids and bring up to and just keep them aware of all the time. I mean, we can use Miami as an example right now, but we have done that way before the Miami situation.

Q. Do you feel for Coach Golden walking into this his first year?
JIMBO FISHER: I sure do. You don't want that to happen to anybody. We hope everything is okay, and like I say, I don't know enough about the whole situation. Honestly I haven't kept up with it because of us being in camp and we're trying to get ready to play ULM. But I wish him nothing but the best.

Continue reading this post »

What schools are getting the best skill players? The top offensive linemen? The highest-rated defensive linemen? Which conferences are pulling in the most elite talent at a given position? And, in an attempt to answer the water-cooler debate once and for all,  states produce the most elite-level recruits for a given position?

The running back position in football has been the most common element since football's 19th-century beginnings (it wouldn't be until 1906 after numerous deaths - and a presidential intervention - to institute the forward pass). The constant has been running with the ball.

This is the second installment of examining elite recruits (see the 1st article on QBs here). We'll be looking at the top ESPN recruits from 2006 through 2011. Note that ESPN did not use the star designations until the 2010 recruiting cycle. Therefore, I've limited the sample to recruits who graded at 80 or better for this study (this left out a few 4* 79 players; but not all 79 grade players were 4-star recruits).

Continue reading this post »

[Author's note: There is a javascript file called within this article to make the data table interactive. If you have JavaScripts turned off, you'll just have a static table. Thanks to mod Pbysh for trouble-shooting!]

So I'm feeling pretty smart right now. This and all of my future posts where I present any data table should now be in interactive form and sortable by column. Clicking twice will reverse the sort direction. The .js file and HTML code to do that is located here for both of you that are interested.

But on to what you're here for: Pass break-ups and Interceptions. The splash statistics behind defensive pass coverage. Good coverage means you're in the hip pocket of your offensive opponent, ready to swat or steal the ball out of the air should it be thrown your way. Or, especially in the zone-heavy schemes of today's college football, you've hidden underneath perfectly near the seam of an opponent's route - unbeknownst to the college quarterback. Pitch and catch, pick-six.

Whatever the case may be, stopping an opponent's passing game is a critical facet of a good defense. The old 3-yards and a cloud of dust offenses of the early 20th century gave way to more pass-heavy and focused offenses. Even the pro-style mantra of "running to setup the pass" is becoming blasé. Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats has shown that running is actually much less important overall than passing towards winning. With passing attacks being crucial to offenses, the need to be proficient in pass coverage has arguably never been more important.

Today we'll look at the 120 FBS schools in 2010 and their pass coverage proficiency. Just after a quick hop, skip, and a jump.

Continue reading this post »

It just so happens I have a friend of mine who is a professional gambler.  Every year since my freshman year of college, we've gotten together and broken down the upcoming season, and we have a method.  We call it "proportional win shares".  You can call it whatever you want, but I think you'll see how it's more effective than simply assigning "win" or "loss" to the games. 

The idea is simple:  assign a winning % to each game.  For instance, you could say that FSU has an 80% chance of beating Maryland (0.80), or that they have a 50% chance to beat UF (0.50).

You know the drill. You give us odds on each game. We add up those odds. And you get a picture of a likely final schedule. Why do this? Well, it's more educated than chanting "10-and-2!" down the hallowed halls of Bellamy Bldg. Or "5-loss team" from your still-real-to-you cell at Sunland. Perhaps one day we'll find the Rainbow Connection and make the Decision Tree idea from TN poster TuckNole feasible with GoogleDocs (the poll form).

This is your chance to show us how good or bad you think Florida State will be. It's simple. Ask yourself, "how likely is FSU to win in each game?"

Take the survey HERE!

For posterity, you may view user results HERE (click to see your results). However, we encourage you to only view these once you've submitted your own predictions in order to minimize inducing any further bias. Also, below are the results from the July poll. Wait to look at those until you've done your own poll.

We'll provide some summary statistics here, or in a follow-up article for those of you scared of spreadsheets.

Additional Note: Google is acting up on this edition of the poll. Double-check your %. If it's listed as 0.01, let me know what you want it changed to.

Continue reading this post »

My previous article on recruiting got me thinking about geography, and on a country-wide scale. What schools are getting the best skill players? The best OL / DL? Which conferences are pulling in the most elite talent at a given position? Which states produce the most elite-level recruits for a given position? Today's look will focus on elite QB recruits from 2006 through the 2011 recruiting cycles.

If you're Whatsamatta U somewhere in the Midwest and you want to secure an elite QB recruit, can you expect to stay in-state to find your guy? Maybe a nearby state? Or just maybe you're in a water-cooler argument. By the end of this and future positional articles, you'll be armed to the teeth. This is part 1 of a multi-part series on elite prep player production per state.

Quarterbacks

Perhaps no one player is more important toward an offense's and thus team's success than its quarterback. And elite quarterbacking can elevate even the most vanilla scheme into a high-powered offense. Elite quarterback recruits are highly sought-after prizes.

We at Florida State have to be enamored with Coach Fisher's commitment to playing the best QB available, their maturation under center in an NFL-friendly offense, and his unbelievable recruiting of QBs with arms, legs, and brains. While EJ Manuel is his first real QB recruit to start at FSU, the securing of 2012 dual-threat QB commit Jameis Winston promulgates Fisher's recruiting philosophy and achievement. Jameis is similarly talented to Manuel, and perhaps similarly destined.

For this and future studies, we'll be looking at the top ESPN QB recruits from 2006 through 2011. Note that ESPN did not use the star designations until the 2010 recruiting cycle. Therefore, I've limited the sample to QB recruits who graded at 80 or better for this study (this left out a few 4* 79 players; but not all 79 grade players were 4-star recruits).

Some of you may duck, but the rest of you should jump.

Continue reading this post »