I coach highschool baseball and have been playing with the idea of how to use SABR principals in my coaching for a while now.  There is no scenario I can imagine in which I can have enough data on individual players to make an assumption, but with enough years of data I think I can lean some valuable information from things, for example RE charts and league BABIP.  Obviously the assumptions upon which we base our MLB analysis don't necessarily hold true, (i.e. bunting is far more useful).  I think my first step is going to be an attempt to build RA and RE charts for the past years of team data.  I would also like to tap this community for its knowledge, have any of you tried something like this before, is it feasible/useful, do you have any advice? I was planning on just using Excel, Is there a program that you guys would recommend?

Thanks, I appreciate any help

This was a FanPost a couple days ago that I didn't promote at the time. But I want to make sure no one misses it. -- Kurt

Jose Valverde is probably the single most interesting player on the Tigers roster and he is certainly the most entertaining. Jose is responsible for what I think was most memorable moment of the Tigers season last year;  up 5-4 over the Yankees on May 10, 2010 Valverde stepped on the mound in the ninth to strike out Nick Swisher, Mark Texiera, and Alex Rodrigues, back-to back- to back, then he proceeded to dance the night away.  We all know how last season ended, but at that point Valverde looked like a superstar, the untouchable closer that we had always craved, the guy who would make us forget about Fernando Rodney, and Todd Jones, the guy Joel Zumaya was supposed to be, our Eleanor.

Before I get into his performance I want to take a step back and cover how Jose Valverde ended up as our closer.  Jose originally signed with the Diamondbacks as an amateur free-agent in 1997, he spent 5 years as a significant cog in the Diamondbacks relief corps before being traded to the Astros in 2007.    After back to back seasons of 40+ saves Jose got his big raise in 2009 when he made $8 million.  The Astros offered Jose arbitration following the 2009 season, but he declined electing instead to test the free agent market.  Valverde was probably the best reliever available in the 2009 – 2010 free agent market, but because of salary demands and a lost draft pick attacked to signing him Jose languished as a free agent until late January of 2010 when Mike Illich opened up his checkbook and penned the imposing Venezuela to a 2 year, $14 million dollar contract. 

Reaction to the signing was mixed, the stat-based community hated it (as they do with any multi-year relief signing, but a lot of people applauded the investment.  I personally got the felling that the Tigers were bidding against themselves, but that is neither here nor there as the majority of the guaranteed portion of Valverde’s contract has come to an end.  The important part now is a team option for another year of Valverde’s services at a cost of $9 million.  I brought this up in another post and got hammered for it, but I don’t think the Tigers should exercise this option.    In this post I don’t want to focus on what Closers are worth per se, we could go around all day on that topic, but how Valverde’s numbers stand up against other relief pitchers.   

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A lot has been made of Austin Jackson’s ridiculously high BABIP in 2010.

BABIP is generally a pretty good predictive stat, it posits that hitters, much like pitchers, don’t have a lot of control over what happens once the ball gets put into play.

BABIP = (H - HR) / (AB-K-HR+SF)

A-Jax = (181-4)/ (618-170-4+3) = .397

It seems pretty simple from here, league average BABIP is around .300 so Jackson is going to be horrible next season.

While this type of conclusion tends to work pretty well for pitchers, as even the best pitchers tend to have BABIPS around league average, the same cannot be said for hitters. It turns out that a lot of hitters (unlike pitchers) don’t necessarily regress to league average in BABIP, hitters appear to actually have a significant amount of control over their BABIP.In that respect it isn’t really very useful to compare a hitters BABIP to league average, rather it should be related to previous BABIP rates through their career.

Austin Jackson is actually the perfect storm in terms of creating a high BABIP due to Batted ball tendencies and in the case of HRs, quirks in BABIP calculation, Jackson presents the exact type of player we would expect to have an inflated BABIP.

1) Line Drives- The type of contact a hitter makes has a pretty high correlated to BABIP. The 2009 league average BABIPS , by hit type (via Twinki Town) Line Drives: .720,  Ground Balls: .231,  Fly Balls: .171

Jackson Batted ball data for 2010 goes like this: LD 24.2% GB 48.4% FB 27.4% Of his balls in play (447 as defined in BABIP, AB-K-HR+SF) 107 were LDs, 214 were GBs and 121 were FBs 107 x .72= 78 214 x .231= 50 121 x .171= 21 By league average batted ball data A-Jax should have had 149 hits plus 4 HRs for 153 which would have resulted in a .248 BA and a .330 BABIP.  Not very comforting, but Jackson still has another important skill to factor in.

2) Speed- Further diluting the batted ball data is a players ability to control Infield Hits. Jackson’s IFH% was really good last season at 11.7% (25) of his GBs became infield hits.   Players IFH tend to stay pretty consistent from year to year, so it isn’t unlikely that Jackson will put up a similar % next season. With Jackson’s speed it is a safe bet that he will maintain a significantly above average IFH% raising his BA on GBs closer to .300 than the .231 league average.

If we bump the league average .231 on GBs to .270: 214 GBs at .270 = 58 for a total of 161 hits and .260 average

at .300 Jackson would see 166 hits and .268 average

3) Home Runs- One of the quirks of BABIP is that because it was developed to analyze the effect defense has on the game HRs are excluded. Jackson doesn’t hit home runs and is to a certain extent penalized for it. If Jackson had hit 10 HRs instead of 4, his BABIP would be 10 points lower.  

While A-Jax is not going to recreate his 2010 BABIP, there is also no evidence to suggest his BABIP will drop anywhere close to league average.

1) Consistency- BABIP tends to be pretty volatile, but also tends to bunch around a players talent, rather than league average. Over more than 2,000 minor league at-bats Jackson’s BABIP was .370. Is it going to be that high in the MLB, probably not (although I think there is a solid argument that defenders in the bigs are actually worse on average than those in the minor leagues) but I also wouldn’t expect it to suddenly drop 40 points.

2) xBABIP- Like xFIP to FIP, xBABIP attempts to adjust BABIP to better serve as a prediction of future BABIP values. Jackson’s xBABIP for 2010 was .355, A significant drop from .396, but not exactly .330 either (xBABIP from Hardball Times)

3) Age- There are no guarantees that a player will improve from year to year, even a player as young as Jackson, but a few minor improvements in K, BB, and HR could keep Jackson at an All-Star level while displaying a far more sustainable BABIP. Going back to our initial calculation, without adding a single hit lets see what 2010 would have looked like in terms of BABIP

if Jackson had hit 10 Home Runs and Ked 15 fewer times.(181-10)/ (618-155-10+3) = .375 Hits

15 HR and drops 20 Ks (still 150 Ks): (181-15)/ (618-150-15+3)= .350

When analyzing hitters, BABIP much more complicated than many people give it credit for. Is Jackson going to have a .396 BABIP ever again? not likley, but his BABIP also isn’t going to automatically drop to .300 because that is league average. BABIP isn’t a pure luck statistic, as with anything BABIP will regress to the mean, but unlike statistics that a more purely luck based (pitcher BABIP for example) it is more likely to regress to the mean for an individual player than league average. If Jackson’s BABIP through the minors and his xBABIP from 2010 are any indication, I don’t think it is unreasonable to assume Jackson’s at a natural BABIP to settle in the neighborhood of .350. If That .350 is joined with already stellar defense and minor improvements in Ks, HRs, and BBs Jackson will be an All-Star in 2011.

*If not otherwise cited, all stats via Fangraphs

Rumors have been swirling about the D-Backs possibly looking to trade Juston Upton.  I, and I think most other people initially dismissed this as standard "no player is untouchable" GM talk, but as more information comes out a scenario where Upton ends up on a new team in 2011 seems more and more possible.  

Facts: Upton is a 23 year old corner outfielder who broke out in 2009, but had a bit of a Sophmore slump in 2010.  Upton is big, athletic, and has truly massive power potential.  He is also cost-controlled through 2015.  Bringing in Upton would basically set three of the top four spots in out lineup for the foreseeable future and add a lot of payroll certainty 

My Humble Opinion: Bottom line, We need a productive corner outfielder. I would basically send the moon and the stars to Arizona for Upton, he makes us younger, cheaper, and more athletic.  I will admit that it is more of a deal for 2012 than 11 because using the number of prospects it would take to bring in Upton would legitimately forestall any possibility of dealing for pitching, but the opportunity to get a player like Upton doesn't come around very often so I say jump on it.

I Realize there is still a very small likely hood that the D-backs will let go of Upton, but what kind of deal would you guys put together to try and bring him to Detroit?

There has been a lot of discussion of Phil Coke’s ability to step into a starting role next season.  My feeling is that Coke is not only a virtual lock to end up as the Tigers fourth or fifth starter in 2010, but I see him as providing good value in that role. Here is why

Why Coke will be in the Rotation:

 

·    The Tigers as an organization have a major incentive to fit Coke into the rotation.  It is far easier to sell the Granderson trade as a victory if we get two starting pitchers out of it rather than a starter and two relievers

·    We don’t have any other viable left handed options (Robertson and Willis are dead to me).  A team doesn’t need a left handed starter, but you like to have one and we don’t have any other options

·    We have plenty of lefties in the Pen.  Seay, Ni, and maybe even Schlerith (I think he will at least start in the minors though) are productive left handed relievers Coke in the pen would just add to a relative strength.

Why Coke will be successful:

 

·    There is view out there that Coke is better suited to be a reliever than a starter, but we have yet to see him as a starter in the bigs, the best comparison we have is his 2008 season in the minor leagues. Coke's 2008 ERA at AA Trenton as a starter (20 starts in 23 appearances) was 2.51 while his ERA as a reliever at AAA Scranton (1 start in 14 appearances) was 4.67.

 ·    Coke was projected as a starter with the Yankees and was converted into a reliever not because of his performance, but because of organizational need.  I may be missing someone, but in 2008, when they switched Coke and brought him up, the left handed options in the Yankees bullpen were Damaso Marte, Billy Traber, and Kei Igawa…Gross

·    One big knock on Coke is his high home run rate (4.2%) in 09, but 7 of the 10 home runs he gave up were in the shoe box they call Yankee Stadium

·    Coke’s 2009 home/road split in ERA is pretty disturbing, the only mitigation i can think of at the moment is that if you take out one appearance against the Cubs on August 1 (1/3 inning 6ER) the numbers are much more comparable

·    As a reliever in 2009 Coke’s LH/RH are pretty comparable.  Righties were a bit better and struck out significantly less, but there aren't many left handed starters that deviate from that trend

 

What say you?