Most biographies of influential people can be read as both history and inspiration, teaching the reader about a factual timeline and an atypical mindset that drives a person to change his surroundings. Some bios, however, serve as a cautionary tale... ‘WARNING: This person's success was largely a function of his intersection with specific time and space coordinates. Do not attempt this at home.'

Ironically, the real star of Walter Isaacson's recent book on the life of Steve Jobs was not Jobs himself, but rather Jobs's "reality distortion field", the coined phrase of Jobs's co-workers which described his pattern of seeing the world as he wanted it to be instead of how it generally was. In one sense, this delusional capacity facilitated the success of Jobs and Apple; deadline struggles and technical impossibilities washed away under the famous withering glare of the iconic executive. Since Jobs had surrounded himself with brilliant and driven technicians, the strategies tended to work. Other business lessons abound in the book too, including the importance of aesthetics, and the genius of a simplified product suite.

As a point of contrast, I have no doubt that every single person reading this knows at least one person who also views the world more as they want it to be rather than how it is. I also have no doubts that these reality distorters are not as successful as Steve Jobs. Which brings us to the 2012 Cincinnati Reds.

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Let's start with a quantifiable piece of evidence. The Baseball Hall of Fame has opened its doors to eleven MLB third basemen, twelve if you count Paul Molitor. It's a bit of an underrepresentation, comparing unfavorably to 18 second basemen, 19 shortstops, and 20 first basemen.

While there are reasons and theories for this electability gap, let's pretend for the moment that they don't much matter, and ask more topical questions: Will Scott Rolen be elected into the Hall of Fame? And if the matter is still unsettled, what more does he need to do to get in? Perhaps at a more granular level, why write about Rolen vs. the Hall when he's currently hitting .183 (and a weak .183, at that)?

To that last point, April is always the official month of optimism in these parts, and I'll maintain that nothing seen in the last three weeks will last forever (except for the awesome parts). That, or I had been mulling this piece for awhile and figured I had better post it now before it became completely ridiculous. Regarding the broader questions...

Continue reading this post »

27. Joey Votto

There’s a universe in which there is never any question that Votto will spend his entire career with the Reds, and he goes on to be a top-5 player in franchise history, and they name streets after him. We’re probably not in that universe, of course, having the misfortune of always picking the wrong damn universe to live in.

Nonetheless, Votto’s elite. He picked up some new hardware this year (the Reds have the Gold-Gloviest right side of the infield in all the land), and barely skipped a beat in his MVP remix season. He actually profiles rather well with Jeff Bagwell, who also had an MVP award and a Gold Glove and a career OPS+ in the 150 neighborhood through his age 27 season. Bagwell’s decline from there was long and slow, and accompanied by several trips to October. Would that the two indeed profile that close to one another.

Through 4+ seasons, Votto owns a batting line of 313/405/550 (151 OPS+), and jumps from #64 on the all-time list to #27. He also rises six spots on the list of best first basemen in team history, to #4.

The Top 15 First Basemen in Reds history

1 Tony Perez
2 Ted Kluszewski
3 Frank McCormick
4 Joey Votto*
5 Dan Driessen
6 Jake Beckley
7 Sean Casey
8 Lee May
9 Jake Daubert
10 Dick Hoblitzel
11 Hal Morris
12 Rube Bressler
13 Gordy Coleman
14 Deron Johnson
15 Hal Chase

*active

43. Brandon Phillips

2011 saw Phillips put together a career-best season, setting career highs in batting average (.300), doubles (38), and on-base percentage (.353), while holding on to the Gold Glove perch at second base. From an aggregated standpoint within his Reds’ tenure, Phillips came very close to some milestones this year, standing just three hits away from 1,000, 14 RBI from 500, and 15 steals from 150. He also ended the year with a cumulative OPS+ greater than 100 for the first time. One cracks a smile at the thought of Phillips checking that one off on his to-do list.

Despite the good news on the field, the 2011-12 offseason has suggested not all is well. While the team picked up Phillips’s contract option for 2012, the presumptive contract extension has yet to materialize. While Phillips has steadily gotten better and better over his Cincy career, the track record for 30+ year old second basemen does not inspire confidence. His range in the field has been marginally better than league average lately, and his speed numbers have been declining without a corresponding pickup in power output. The end isn’t necessarily nigh, but there are warning signs afoot.

For now, however, no matter, especially as Phillips has made a career of proving critics and know-it-alls wrong. Putting the numbers aside for a moment, he’s one of the more enjoyable to watch players of my lifetime. In a perfect and just world, he’d get his desired paycheck and the team wouldn’t suffer a bit. On the basis of his 2011 season, Phillips jumps from #69 to #43, and rises one notch on the list of top second basemen in team history.

The Top 15 Second Basemen in Reds history

1 Joe Morgan
2 Bid McPhee
3 Lonny Frey
4 Miller Huggins
5 Johnny Temple
6 Brandon Phillips*
7 Ron Oester
8 Hughie Critz
9 Bret Boone
10 Dick Egan
11 Sam Bohne
12 Tommy Helms
13 Pokey Reese
14 Morrie Rath
15 Tony Cuccinello
*active

Honorable Mention: Bronson Arroyo

Tough year. After five consecutive years of being Cincinnati's most reliable pitcher, Bronson Arroyo hit the wall in a very unfortunate way in 2011, although in typical Arroyo fashion, he tried to power his way through the wall. Falling just one inning shy of 200 (the first time he failed to hit the mark as a Redleg), Arroyo still managed to lead the league in home runs and earned runs surrendered.

The negativity of last year is fresh and overpowering, so let's lay out a rather stunning positive. Did you know that Arroyo ranks 6^th in franchise history for strikeout-to-walk ratio? And that he actually improved this metric in 2011, despite striking out just 108? Quite frankly, it's Arroyo's outstanding control that allows him to stay employed, although even in past successful years he's teetered on the edge of anti-glory. In allowing more than 2 homers per 9 innings pitched during the '11 season, the cliff was no longer theoretical.

Arroyo suffered through mono and back pain this year, so there remains a plausible alibi. If it's injury and illness that's causing the long-ball fever, the numbers may very well fall in line. Cut the home run rate to his historical averages, and the ERA gets close-ish to normal. Getting a little more granular, a typical Arroyo year would see 26 dingers instead of 46...the difference would create about a 2.5 win upgrade. Maybe next year. Hopefully next year.

For his efforts, Arroyo creeped from #113 to #111 on the all-time list.

Honorable Mention: Jay Bruce

The process of writing one of these capsules is generally the same. Open up Baseball Reference, go to the player's page, and then stare at it until some idea arrives. One of the easier avenues is to go to the similarity scores section and see if any thoughts pop up.

Run through these steps for Jay Bruce, and the instant reaction is: Reggie Jackson is Bruce's most comparable player through age 24? That's awesome! Then I begin to dig. The reasons for similarity are clear: both players had exactly 100 home runs through their age 24 season, the accumulated runs + RBI totals are very similar, and many of the other counting stats are reasonably close. Jackson was a slam-dunk hall-of-famer, donchaknow. Of course, before I get too excited, I begin to rationalize. Jackson hit the homers in 200 fewer at-bats in the Age of the Pitcher, had 25% more walks, stole nearly three times as many bases. They're not at all similar, actually. And it seems I've just recreated internally the drama that's been played on the field over the last couple years. The glimpses and the promise are glittering, and then at the end of the year I look at the totals and ask if that's it. I feel guilty for doing so, because he's still the 2^nd best player on the team, but wasn't he the #1 prospect in baseball? Isn't he a sure thing, soon to eclipse Votto? Am I only disappointed because of my expectations? I begin to imagine that if a terrible, nationally broadcast morning sports radio program cared about Midwestern baseball, they might put together a song parody about Jay Bruce. They might use a Soundgarden song as their template: "I'm looking Reggie Jackson / And feeling Tom Brunansky".

The facts are that Bruce has now put up back-to-back full seasons in the 120 OPS+ neighborhood. That's good baseball, but it's not growth and it's not a superstar, not in right field. The defense, by all quantifiable metrics, took a sizable step backwards, as well.

The story is rarely fully written for any 24 year old, and the age curve isn't an inevitability, at least in the short term. He is still liable to break out, become the #1a instead of #2, be the face of the franchise. Which is kind of the rub. If the team doesn't make good in the upcoming seasons, Bruce will probably shoulder a good chunk of the blame. It'll be unfair, but most expectations generally are.

Bruce carries a career batting line of 256/331/474 (112 OPS+). He moves from #205 to #124 on the all-time list, and makes his first appearance on the list of the franchise's best rightfielders, knocking out Tommy Griffith.

The Top 15 Rightfielders in Reds history

1 Ken Griffey
2 Ival Goodman
3 Mike Mitchell
4 Curt Walker
5 Reggie Sanders
6 Dusty Miller
7 Paul O'Neill
8 Dave Parker
9 Greasy Neale
10 Wally Post
11 Sam Crawford
12 Johnny Wyrostek
13 Jay Bruce*
14 Tommy Harper
15 Dave Collins
*active

Honorable Mention: Drew Stubbs

For Drew Stubbs, 2011 was a year of highs (his 40 stolen bases was the most by a Reds player since 1997) and lows (his 205 strikeouts set a new team single-season mark). And somewhere in between lies a player whose value has never been easy to pin down.

Over his career, there have been other extremes, some of which are easy enough to understand. He has hit lefties, his natural platoon advantage, 137 points of OPS higher than righties. His home OPS numbers are 174 points higher than on the road. More perplexing is how weak his numbers in ‘high leverage' situations are: just a 633 OPS, nearly 100 points below his career total.

It's understandable, then, how much controversy Stubbs seems to generate amongst Reds fans. His natural talents: power, speed, defense, are unmistakable. Put him in the ‘wrong' spot, however, and he's as close to an automatic out as there is in the lineup. He's not the X factor, per se, but one of the big questions needing to be answered if the Reds are to break through to perma-contender status is whether or not Stubbs can approach an acceptable level of consistency.

One more note, since it's a big part of Stubbs's game. His ball-hawking ability can be-has been-top tier. In 2010, his per game putout rate was among the best for NL centerfielders. In 2011, below league average. Defense is supposed to be a stable skill, but throw it on the growing pile of head scratchers that is coming to define Stubbs.

In 2+ seasons, Stubbs has played 350 games, and has never played any position but centerfield. His hitting line of 251/325/406 is good for a 96 OPS+. He currently ranks as the #196 player in Reds history.

Honorable Mention: Francisco Cordero

There's an unavoidable paradox in the Francisco Cordero story, so let's begin there. Prior to the 2008 season, Cordero signed a 4-year, $46 million contract with the Reds. As one of the largest contracts ever given to a relief pitcher, and as the largest free agent contract ever issued by the Reds, the deal was intended to make a splash, and it was intended to make the Reds a winning team.

The underlying tautology of ‘winning teams have good closers' can perhaps be examined at a later date. For now, I'm more interested in the resulting analyses provided at the news of the CoCo signing, which were nearly unanimous in their thumbs-down verdicts. And the paradox is this: the analysts were right, in that Cordero was never worth the money thrown his way. And the analysts were also wrong, in that Cordero was everything the Reds could hoped for. Again, this probably isn't the space for a full blown analysis, but Cordero's 150 saves and 141 ERA+ were absolutely in line with what he had done prior to the signing. From a performance standpoint, he simply didn't age. On the other hand, Cordero's bWAR (the more favorable of the competing WAR metrics) credit him with 6.2 wins above replacement. At 46 large, that's a hefty cost-per-win figure, especially for a revenue-strapped club, and not a recipe for sustainable success.

And then, briefly, back to the tautology: the Reds did indeed, briefly, become a winning club during Cordero's tenure.

As for the items not related to Cordero's relative worth, he's been an interesting study over the past few years. He has stopped being an overpowering pitcher before our eyes (his K/9 rate has almost been cut in half), without losing effectiveness. His general numbers, including the save counts, have been good, but he has not been among the elite in terms of save percentage; in other words, he's definitely good for a handful or two of meltdowns each year. He wasn't the best, nor was he quite worth what he was paid, but he may prove difficult to replace.

On October 31, Cordero's option for 2012 was turned down, and he became a free agent. His 150 saves rank 2^nd in franchise history, and is being ranked #197 on the all-time list. He is also being ranked as the 13^th best relief pitcher in franchise history, bumping Rawley Eastwick off the top-15 list.

The Top 15 Relief Pitchers in Reds history

1 John Franco
2 Clay Carroll
3 Danny Graves
4 Pedro Borbon
5 Tom Hume
6 Rob Dibble
7 Ted Power
8 Joe Beggs
9 Jeff Shaw
10 Scott Williamson
11 Norm Charlton
12 Scott Sullivan
13 Francisco Cordero*
14 Jeff Brantley
15 Harry Gumbert
*active

Honorable Mention: Ryan Hanigan

It's a fun and fitting coincidence that the two catchers are posted in consecutive fashion like this, as the two have provided an effective and complementary combo over the last few years. In fact, they have been similarly worthy, albeit in rather different ways.

Hanigan, you likely know, was signed by the Reds a week after his 22^nd birthday, an undrafted free agent in the summer of 2002. An unlikely success story, then, Hanigan advanced steadily through the minor league chain, as his offense progressed, finally earning cups of coffee in 2007 and 2008. From 2009 on, Hanigan's been, more or less, a semi-fixture behind the plate.

Two skills have never been in doubt with Hanigan. His defense is, if not top notch, well above average. And his mastery of the strike zone, evidenced by his career .371 on-base percentage, and low strikeout rate (about 1 per 10 PA). To date, however, Hanigan's power has been nearly non-existent: just 43 career extra base hits, including only 16 home runs. In fact, his OBP exceeds his slugging percentage, for the career totals.

While never a star, and unlikely to become one, Hanigan owns talents which are doubtful to fade quickly. He enters 2012 as a 31-year-old 4th year player (under contract through 2013) and, more importantly, the likely opening day catcher. Even more importantly, perhaps, is his expected role as mentor to the young catching brigade. Should he pass along any batting eye or throwing arm tips, Ryan Hanigan's value, tangible and otherwise, shall far exceed his praises on these pages.

Through his five-season tenure, Ryan Hanigan has played in 287 games, amassing a batting line of 275/371/368 (99 OPS+). He ranks #232 on the all-time Reds list.

Honorable Mention: Ramon Hernandez

From a fan's perspective, there're the games between the lines, which are paramount, and then there are the extracurriculars: roster management, trades, etc. We, the fans, love to see the team win, but we also love to watch good decisions which work out for the best. From that perspective, then, it's hard not to appreciate Ramon Hernandez. The Reds traded for him as he was entering the final year of a contract with Baltimore. The scuttled players: Ryan Freel, Brandon Waring, and Justin Turner, none of whom have yet given cause for regret.

As for the game between the lines, Hernandez was also a win, eventually. His first year as a Red (2009), saw him hit much in the pattern of his years with the Orioles, posting an OPS+ of 85, and looking like his career was ready to dwindle, quickly. Instead, the Reds offered him a two-year, reduced-salary contract extension, and his bat responded as though it were still in its prime, with back-to-back years of OPS+ levels above 110.

He's not just been a pretty bat, either. His defense, most notably marked by his above average caught stealing percentage, has been a significant ingredient in making the Cincy catching a relative strength over Hernandez's tenure.

In the three years he's been here, Hernandez has averaged roughly 90 games per season, with an aggregated batting line of 280/348/413 (103 OPS+). And although his run production has been on the low side (121 aggregated RBI), Hernandez has showed an uncanny knack for the big hit. Clutch Man Monie. While it's not readily apparent to my eye what has rejuvenated Hernandez's career while with the Reds, it's at least plausible that the part-time role was the right tonic at the right time. Kudos, on this point, to the front office for finding a hidden gem.

Through his platoon success, Hernandez is credited with ranking #240 on our list. He was granted free agency on October 30, and subsequently signed with the Rockies.

This off-season, the list of top 100 Reds (found somewhere on the left-hand sidebar) will not be adding any new names, although the order will certainly shift a bit again, due to the active players already on the list. Before we officially re-arrange the pantheon, however, let's first spend some time over the next couple weeks celebrating the currently-rostered players who are on the next level of historical import.

Also, briefly, a barely-related footnote: the Reds are in striking range of a distinction not applicable since after the 2000 season. If Cincy wins 83 games or more in 2012, they will possess a rolling 5-year winning percentage above .500. The stench of the Horrid Decade is nearly completely behind us now, and the quantity/quality profile of players is good enough to complain about, which is miles better than our previous position of Severe Indifference.

Anyways, on to the show.

Honorable Mention: nation.com/mlb/players/31622/johnny-cueto" class="sbn-auto-link">Johnny Cueto

I don't have a list of the greatest pitching debuts in Reds history, but if I did, Cueto would have to be on it. April 3, 2008: Cueto scattered one hit across seven innings while striking out ten. He actually began the game by retiring the first 15 hitters, and cruised through the 7 frames in just 92 pitches. Not bad for a 22 year old rookie.

As an aside, 2008 doesn't feel like that long ago, but here was the lineup from that marvelous entrance, which the Reds did win: Freel - Keppinger - Griffey - Phillips - Dunn - Encarnacion - Hatteberg - Bako - Cueto. You've come a long way, baby.

At any rate, those kinds of debuts will get a fan base excited, but perhaps Cueto was not quite ready for prime time. By the end of that first month, his ERA was well above 5, and it hovered near that level throughout the rest of the season, with the young pitcher showing a particular proclivity to the long ball: 29 surrendered in just 174 innings.

Since then, Cueto has been quite the study in trending patterns. His HR/9 rate has fallen each year, and his BB/9 rate has basically done the same (2010 and 2011 walk rates were virtually identical). Similarly, his hits allowed per inning have followed the same progression. So, naturally, has his effectiveness: ERA+ rates of 92, 95, 112, and 169. It's that last one that has people jazzed up. A 169 ERA+ ranks as the 13^th highest single-season mark in Cincinnati history. Could this be the ace long desired?

One season is never enough to label a star, and so it is with Cueto. Questions remain. In particular, Cueto's breakthrough 2011 was also home to his lowest innings output (on the shelf in April and the last half of September) and strikeout rate (steadily falling along with his other peripherals). Is he fragile? Losing the ability to miss bats? One suspects that 2011's curiously low hit rate is unsustainable, but even with some regression, Cueto is easy to project visions of long-term quality upon. Signed through 2014, we will find out together, for good or ill.

In his four year career, Cueto holds a 41-37 record, with a 3.83 ERA (109 ERA+). His most recent season has pushed him just above the threshold for ‘honorable mention' status, currently ranking as the #246 player on the all-time list.

Position: Starting Pitcher

2011 Innings breakdown: Bronson Arroyo - 21%

                                            Mike Leake - 17%

                                           Johnny Cueto - 16%

                                            Homer Bailey - 14%

                                           Edinson Volquez - 11%

                                           Travis Wood - 10%

                                           Dontrelle Willis - 8%

                                           Sam LeCure - 2%

                                          Chad Reineke - 1%

                                          Matt Maloney - 0%        

2011 Composite pitching line (over 32 starts):

2011 Composite NL average starting pitcher pitcing line (over 32 starts):

2012 Contract status:

Arroyo - signed through 2013

Leake - not yet arbitration eligible

Cueto - signed through 2014

Bailey - arbitration eligible (1^st arb year)

Volquez - arbitration eligible (2^nd arb year)

Wood - not yet arbitration eligible

Willis - free agent

LeCure - not yet arbitration eligible

Reineke - free agent

Maloney - with Minnesota

Advanced minor league depth:

Pedro Villarreal - age 23, 4.39 ERA at A+, AA

Daryl Thompson - age 25, 4.26 ERA at AA, AAA

Tom Cochran - age 28, 3.55 ERA at AAA

Scott Carroll - age 26, 5.39 ERA at AAA

James Avery - age 27, 4.70 ERA at AA

Kyle McCulloch - age 26, 5.25 ERA at AA, AAA

Matt Klinker - age 26, 5.50 ERA at AA, AAA

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: -5

Continue reading this post »

Position: Third Base

2011 Innings breakdown: Scott Rolen - 37%

                                            Miguel Cairo - 29%

                                            Todd Frazier - 14%

                                            Juan Francisco - 13%

                                            Paul Janish - 4%

                                            Chris Valaika - 2%

                                            Yonder Alonso - 1%       

2011 Composite batting line (over 650 PA):

2011 Composite NL average third baseman batting line (over 650 PA):

2012 Contract status:

Rolen - signed through 2012

Cairo - signed through 2012

Frazier - not yet arbitration eligible

Francisco - not yet arbitration eligible

Janish - arbitration eligible (1^st arb year)

Valaika - not yet arbitration eligible

Alonso - not yet arbitration eligible

Advanced minor league depth:

Eric Campbell - age 25, 927 OPS at A+, AA

Mike Costanzo - age 27, 752 OPS at AA, AAA

Jake Kahaulelio - age 26, 639 OPS at A+, AA

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: -3

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Position: Relief Pitcher

2011 Innings breakdown: Nick Masset - 14%

                                            Francisco Cordero - 14%

                                            Logan Ondrusek - 12%

                                            Sam LeCure - 11%

                                           Jose Arredondo - 11%

                                           Aroldis Chapman - 10%

                                           Bill Bray - 10%

                                          Carlos Fisher - 5%

                                          Jordan Smith - 4%

                                         Jeremy Horst - 3%

                                         Matt Maloney - 3%

                                         Travis Wood - 1%

                                         Jared Burton - 1%

                                         Daryl Thompson - 1%

                                         Mike Leake - 0%

                                        Chad Reineke - 0%

                                        Edinson Volquez - 0%                

2011 Composite pitching line (over 72 appearances):

2011 Composite NL average relief pitcher pitcing line (over 72 appearances):

2012 Contract status:

Masset - arbitration eligible (3rd arb year)

Cordero - team option for 2012

Ondrusek - not yet arbitration eligible

LeCure - not yet arbitration eligible

Arredondo - arbitration eligible (1st arb year)

Chapman - not yet arbitration eligible; has ML contract through 2014

Bray - arbitration eligible (2nd arb year)

Fisher - arbitration eligible (1st arb year)

Smith - not yet arbitration eligible

Horst - not yet arbitration eligible

Maloney - with Minnesota

Wood - not yet arbitration eligible

Burton - with Minnesota

Thompson - free agent

Leake - not yet arbitration eligible

Reineke - free agent

Volquez - arbitration eligible (2nd arb year)

Advanced minor league depth:

Brad Boxberger - age 23, 2.03 ERA at AA, AAA

Jerry Gil - age 28, 3.59 ERA at AAA

Doug Salinas - age 22, 4.47 ERA at A+

Andrew Bowman - age 25, 4.50 ERA at A+, AA

Travis Webb - age 26, 4.35 ERA at AA, AAA

Tim Hamulack - age 34, 4.75 ERA at AA

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: -1

Continue reading this post »

Position: Center Field

2011 Innings breakdown: Drew Stubbs - 91%

                                            Chris Heisey - 8%

                                            Dave Sappelt - 1%

2011 Composite batting line (over 650 PA):

2011 Composite NL average center field batting line (over 650 PA):

2012 Contract status:

Stubbs - not yet arbitration eligible

Heisey - not yet arbitration eligible

Sappelt - not yet arbitration eligible

Advanced minor league depth:

Ryan LaMarre - age 22, 720 OPS at A+, AA

Denis Phipps - age 25, 924 OPS at AA, AAA

Quintin Berry - age 26, 774 OPS at AA, AAA

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: -1

Continue reading this post »

Position: Shortstop

2011 Innings breakdown: Paul Janish - 51%

                                            Edgar Renteria - 43%

                                            Zack Cozart - 5%

                                            Chris Valaika - 1%                                         

                                            Todd Frazier - 0%

2011 Composite batting line (over 650 PA):

2011 Composite NL average shortstop batting line (over 650 PA):

2012 Contract status:

Janish - arbitration eligible (1^st arb year)

Renteria - free agent

Cozart - not yet arbitration eligible

Valaika - not yet arbitration eligible

Frazier - not yet arbitration eligible

Advanced minor league depth:

Brodie Greene - age 23, 775 OPS at A+, AA

Miguel Rojas - age 22, 641 OPS at Rk, AA

Kris Negron - age 25, 607 OPS at AAA

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: -2

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Position: First Base

2011 Innings breakdown: Joey Votto - 97%

                                            Yonder Alonso - 1%

                                            Miguel Cairo - 1%

                                            Todd Frazier - 1%

                                            Ramon Hernandez - 1%

2011 Composite batting line (over 650 PA):

2011 Composite NL average first baseman batting line (over 650 PA):

2012 Contract status:

Votto - signed through 2013

Alonso - not yet arbitration eligible

Cairo - signed through 2012

Frazier - not yet arbitration eligible

Hernandez - free agent

Advanced minor league depth:

Neftali Soto - age 22, 909 OPS at AA, AAA

Daniel Dorn - age 26, 749 OPS at AAA

Chris Richburg - age 25, 741 OPS at A+

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: -1

Continue reading this post »

Position: Catcher

2011 Innings breakdown: Ryan Hanigan - 47%

                                            Ramon Hernandez - 45%

                                            Devin Mesoraco - 8%

2011 Composite batting line (over 650 PA):

2011 Composite NL average catcher batting line (over 650 PA):

2012 Contract status:

Hanigan - signed through 2013

Hernandez - free agent

Mesoraco - not yet arbitration eligible

Advanced minor league depth:

Yasmani Grandal - age 22, 901 OPS at A+, AA, AAA

James Skelton - age 25, 706 OPS at AA, AAA

Corky Miller - age 35, 652 OPS at AAA

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: -1

Continue reading this post »

Position: Right Field

2011 Innings breakdown: Jay Bruce - 93%

                                            Chris Heisey - 5%

                                            Fred Lewis - 1%

                                            Jeremy Hermida - 0%

2011 Composite batting line (over 650 PA):

2011 Composite NL average right field batting line (over 650 PA):

2012 Contract status:

Bruce - signed through 2016

Heisey - not yet arbitration eligible

Lewis - arbitration eligible (2^nd arb year)

Hermida - with San Diego

Advanced minor league depth:

Stephen Hunt - age 22, 795 OPS at A+

Felix Perez - age 26, 643 OPS at AA, AAA

Andrew Means - age 24, 632 OS at A+

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: -0

Continue reading this post »

Position: Left Field

2011 Innings breakdown: Jonny Gomes - 28%

                                            Chris Heisey - 27%

                                            Fred Lewis - 22%

                                            Dave Sappelt - 13%

                                            Yonder Alonso - 8%

                                            Jeremy Hermida - 2%

                                            Todd Frazier - 1%

2011 Composite batting line (over 650 PA):

2011 Composite NL average left field batting line (over 650 PA):

2012 Contract status:

Gomes - with Washington

Heisey - not yet arbitration eligible

Lewis - free agent (arbitration eligible, 2^nd year)

Sappelt - not yet arbitration eligible

Alonso - not yet arbitration eligible

Hermida - with San Diego

Frazier - not yet arbitration eligible

Advanced minor league depth:

Josh Fellhauer - age 23, 738 OPS at A+, AA

David Cook - age 29, 744 OPS at AA, AAA

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: +0

Continue reading this post »

Author's note: The following marks the first in a ten part series, seeking to recap the 2011 season on a position-by-position basis, while asking where the 12 win decrease from 2010 to 2011 came from.  Hard-hitting analysis will be noticeably absent, on account of me being the author.  Quick-and-dirty fluff will be the medium, with an eye towards high-level projections for the coming year.  If you remember a similar series last year, you have a good memory, and I ask that you not ruin the illusion of my creativity in the comments.  "What a fresh idea," you'll write.  Thanks in advance.  Also, last year I wrote up each position as though it were an investment option, with buy/hold/sell advice.  Hopefully you also took my advice to sell that literary gimmick; this year I'm imagining each position as a particular industry.  You'll probably want to sell on this one, too.  Position groups will be presented from least to most culpable.

Position: Second Base

2011 Innings breakdown: Brandon Phillips - 90%

                                            Miguel Cairo - 5%

                                            Paul Janish - 3%

                                            Todd Frazier - 1%

                                            Edgar Renteria - 0%

                                            Chris Valaika - 0%

2011 Composite batting line (over 650 PA):

2011 Composite NL average second baseman batting line (over 650 PA):

2012 Contract status:

Phillips - team option for 2012

Cairo - signed through 2012

Janish - arbitration eligible (1^st arb year)

Frazier - not yet arbitration eligible

Renteria - free agent

Valaika - not yet arbitration eligible

Advanced minor league depth:

Henry Rodriguez - age 21, 841 OPS at A+, AA

Cody Puckett - age 24, 780 OPS at AA

Kris Negron - age 25, 607 OPS at AAA

Relative win increase, 2011 vs. 2010: +1

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What's the most important play in a soccer game, asked the wise old coach.  The young arms shot up.  The save?  No.  The goal?  No.  The corner kick?  Again, no.

What's the most important play in a soccer game, asked the wise old coach.  One arm slowly rose.  The next play?  Very good, son.

The interested observer witnessed it all.  Nonsense, he thought.

Normally, this would be the space in which we examine the past 18 games, but that has been pulled for something approaching ACTUAL ANALYSIS.  Semi-approaching pseudo-analysis, I'd call it.  If you simply must know, the Reds went 8 - 10 over the last 18, and did not make the playoffs.  Brandon Phillips hit well, Drew Stubbs didn't, and Bronson Arroyo left the pitching skillz on the boat. 

For the 22 teams which have seen their season end, the road towards next year is well underfoot.  The thesis of this piece is that this coming winter is the most important in modern Reds history, which for now we'll define as being the last 30 years or so.  It's a non-provable theory, but a little sensationalism never hurt anyone.  At the very least, I'd claim it to be the most important since the Griffey Junior era began.

The key to the study is that the Reds compete with other teams in a division and should be judged relative to the expected quality of those teams.  Donations for this kind of insight should be sent via PayPal.  The full shakedown on methodology, projections, expectations, and conclusions...after the jump.

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You know all those times when the Reds had really killer stats, but weren’t coming up with the wins?  Payback time, in a very minor key here, as the Reds were below average offensively and defensively, but still managed to win ten of 18.  The only race left from here on in is the race to a .500 record or better.  11 wins from clinching a winning record.  Does it matter to you?  I guess I’m personally indifferent at this point, especially given the knowledge that the race for 82 matters very much to a certain skipper.  Let’s cruise through the numbers, which are through Friday’s games.

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We were talking hope in this space last time around.  Unfortunately, reality.  I will choose my words carefully lest I venture into newspaper columnist territory, but watching this team leaves the viewer with the impression that they don’t much care what happens.  I realize this is not the case.  I realize that these paid professionals have pride, dignity, and future dollars on the line.  I realize that the front office is constantly assessing the team with one eye on the immediate landscape and one on the horizon.  I realize that this is a mind-bogglingly difficult game and that driving in runs or shutting down a rally is not as simple as really, really hoping something good happens.  Give me a stoic run producer over an energized mediocrity any day.  I will maintain the focus on the big picture, but hot damn if this team doesn’t look bored.  The common belief was that an easier stretch of games would translate to wins and winning streaks.  Well.  Buckeyes open with Akron on September 3.

All stats through Saturday’s games, after the jump…

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Q1:  Any of youse going to the 8/17 (Wednesday) game?

Q2: What's a good place to eat (w/ a 7 year old) between the Mall and the ballpark?

It’s not dark yet, but it’s getting there.

The norm in this space is to wait until after the jump to get into the numbers, but let’s get weird, eh?  The Reds finished off the toughest 18 game stretch they’ve ever faced in my tenure here, and I’ll posit I won’t see a more difficult one.  As mentioned last time, heading into these 18 contests, each of the scheduled opponents had a winning record, averaging out at a .539 winning percentage.  The Reds responded big-time: the offense was almost a half-run better than league average, component-wise, and the pitching was in a similar camp: about half a run better than mean.  At this point, Alanis Morissette’s irony meter is taking off, because the Reds managed to win just 9 of the last 18.  Some real hard luck losses in there, too.  Despite the injuries and the inconsistent performance, it’s a decent team, playing decently.  Just can’t get the wins.  It’s like raaaaaiiiinnnnn….

All stats through Sunday’s games, presented after the jump.

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And now, as a therapeutical service to the Red Reporter community, five reasons for optimism:

1) When trying to predict/remember the Reds’ record over this 18 game stretch, which ended with Friday’s gut-punch of a loss, my guess was 5-13, missing the mark by two games.  Reason for optimism: They seem worse than they really are!

2) With Scott Rolen being selected as an All-Star replacement, the Reds now have four all-stars on the team, with the only thing keeping the Reds from having an all-all-star infield being Zack Cosart’s delayed call-up.  Reason for optimism: The team is jam packed with certified stars!

3) For the first time this year, the capsule recap includes no new pitcher debuts, and just one new position player.  Reason for optimism: The roster is settled and beginning to gel!

4) With the looming All-Star break, the local heroes get four days to rest, regroup, and render a plan to retaliate on the league.  Reason for optimism: The Reds won their first five games of the season this year, and if I’m understanding the ‘Principles of Correlation’ class at the local community college correctly, these next few games should be a lock.

5) Just three weeks until the team escapes the schedule stretch of death!  Always darkest before the dawn, etc.

Glass half full yet?  Either way, let’s take a stroll through the latest cache of numbers, presented through Friday’s games…

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If the recent speculation is to be believed, we may be less than a season away from massive realignment, with one of the outcomes being perpetual inter-league play.  I would imagine the Reds would be well served to fold the franchise if this is the case.  Inter-league disappointments aside, this was a positive stretch for the home team.  Games picked up on the division leaders are always cause for a Coke and a smile, and there has been an actual starting pitching sighting.  As we’ll see later, just staying close for now is key.  All the numbers are through Saturday’s games…

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Happened to sit next to a Cardinals scout at a AA game last night...a Cardinals scout who's a Reds fan from SW Ohio.  Assorted outtakes from our conversation:

On Yonder Alfonso: On his best day, he's not quite Jonny Gomes defensively

On Juan Francisco: I'd love to see him get his shot.  I think he'd hit 25 HR in the bigs.  'Course, he'd also hit .220...

On which Reds prospects he was most excited about: The two catchers definitely.  Mesoraco looks amazing.

On Cardinals wunderkind Shelby Miller: He's the real deal.  Could probably help the Cards right now.

On my surprise/annoyance on how well Lance Berkman has worked out for STL: He practically begged the Cards to sign him.  He insisted he was ready to play the outfield.  (why does this never happen for the Reds?)

Take all this for what it's worth of course; thought it was interesting...

The good news, if you’re even interested in such a thing anymore, is that the Reds were *this* close to playing the latest stretch of games at a favorable clip.  A baserunning blunder, a blown call at the plate, a couple of timely hits, etc.; if things turn ever so slightly in the Reds’ direction, we’re singing the team’s praises through a brutal turn in the schedule.  Instead, the team appears to be nearing desperation, both in terms of needing a win and in needing some healthy bodies.  The other good news is that things will get better, provided the pitching really isn’t quite this bad.  It can’t be this bad.  It can’t be this bad.  It can’t be this bad.  Somebody hold me.  (All stats and miscellanea through Sunday’s games.)

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