SB Nation User Blog: riverfront76

Wrapping up the top 100

riverfront76 — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 02:00:43 -0000

Now that our countdown is over, I thought it might be appropriate to post some wrap-up thoughts and conclusions.

First, I suppose that you may be wondering about current Reds and where they might stack up against this list. As you might have noted, only one active player made the list, and barely so at that (Brandon Phillips, #98). There are three other players on the current roster that are somewhere in the top 250 or so...

Aaron Harang sits at #134, hampered by injury and ineffectiveness over the last couple seasons. If in 2010 Harang can reprise what he did in 2006-07, he would be a candidate to scrape into the top 100.

Bronson Arroyo ranks as the 149^th greatest Red after his four seasons. While his 2006 was very good, he has settled into a consistent level a couple tiers below that ever since. If he continues on at that level, he is still a couple years away from breaking into the top 100, meaning it's unlikely he'll remain a Red long enough to do so.

Sitting just behind Arroyo, at #151, is Joey Votto --really on the basis of just two seasons played. The quality of Votto's seasons is high-if he can reproduce the value of his 2009, he'll sit somewhere in the #75 neighborhood a year from now.

Coincidentally, recently traded third baseman Edwin Encarnacion ranks between Arroyo and Votto at #150. He's unlikely to improve on that standing. The other 2009 trade-away with any significant tenure was David Weathers, who stands as the 230^th greatest Red (if you guessed that he ranks just behind Ron Robinson, you're right!)

More minutia and analysis after the jump...

One of the things that emerged during this project was that for many of us, some of the old-time players were not only unfamiliar to our collective consciousness, but also had some really bizarre names. In that vein, I present to you five more entries for the all-time name team:

1) Mysterious Walker, pitched briefly for the Reds in 1910
2) Twink Twining, another pitcher of little regard during the 1916 season
3) Pinky Pittenger, a middle infielder who played from 1927-29
4) Pee Wee Wanninger, a 1927 shortstop
5) Frenchy Bordagaray, also from 1939, played a bit of left field

A couple of those guys, were they to be acquired today, might just cause Red Reporter's whole head to explode.

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For the next segment, I took the top 100 group, and did some sorting and digging, to see if anything interesting popped up...

First, let's look at the breakdown of the top 100 players, sorted by primary position:

Starting pitcher; 26

Relief pitcher, 3

Catcher, 8

First Baseman, 11

Second Baseman, 8

Third Baseman, 10

Shortstop, 7

Left Field, 6

Center Field, 10

Right Field, 11

That doesn't seem like it tells us much of anything. Let's move on.

What if were to track a count of top-100 guys, and how many of them were represented in each calendar year they played for the Reds? On the one hand, there's a bit of a problem presented by assuming all top-100 players are equally valuable, or that player #100 is significant while #101 is not, but let's see what happens:

That's something, I guess. 13 top-100 guys on that 1973 roster. The data looks a bit choppy, though. What if we use 5-year rolling averages:

The year listed is the middle of the 5 year data set, and again we see a peak in the mid-70s which makes sense, but I think we can get a little bit more refined.

This next graph shows rolling averages of the percentage of the team's total win shares accounted for by top-100 players (for example, if a 80 win team was good for 240 win shares, and that team had 3 players that ended up on the top-100 list, each player with 20 win shares, that season would get a .25 score on the following chart):

This provides an interesting comparison to how successful the team has been over the years:

Bullet point observations:

Originally, I was surprised at how closely these two graphs tracked with each other, since I assumed that the bad teams of history might have one or two good players who ate up a higher percentage of a team's value. After further consideration, however, it's been made clear that a team can't win on the basis of one or two good players. Remember that Aaron Boone and Danny Graves are tail-end top-100 guys. A winning team would need them, plus 4 or 5 or 6 players who were even better.
The graph doesn't seem to track at all prior to 1900. I think this is probably due to the smaller rosters and completely different usage patterns as compared to the modern game.
The Reds had an underappreciated period during the 1920's, with 3 2^nd place finishes between 1922-26.
The ramp-up to the Big Red Machine was steady and determined: starting in the mid-1950's, the team had very few bad seasons. They were good, won a pennant, went back to being good again, then elevated to be a special team in the mid-70's. The sharp drop-off in the early 80's must have been particularly jarring to long-time fans at the time.
The Reds have had their droughts before: seven straight losing seasons from 1910-16 (average winning percentage of .442), nine straight from 1929-37 (.399), eleven straight from 1945-55 (.442), and now nine straight (and counting!) from 2001-09 (.457). If you discount the post WWII stretch due to, er...World War 2 and its effects, then this current era is arguably the 2^nd worst in franchise history.
Originally, in this space, I had written what were some high-level conclusions drawn from the graphs above, the state of the current team, and what it meant going forward. The tone of it was more pessimistic than I wanted, and it was missing one of the "lessons" of this project, namely that some of the best players on the best teams come out of nowhere (see: Bucky Walters and George Foster). So, I'm not making any predictions. We know the team hasn't been good, we think there's a few promising youngsters (with one potential carry-the-team-on-his-back guy), and we hope for a couple out-of-the-woodwork surprises. We'll do the same this time next year.

***********************************************************************

Finally, a few words about the Big Red Machine, another topic where I'm simply adding to the millions of words already spilled. My perspective, however, coming out of this top 100 exercise, is just how unlikely it all was. I can't imagine too many other franchises drawing from well over a century's worth of teams, and ending up with six of the top 12 who happened to be teammates for a minimum of five straight years, with several of the combinations lasting much longer than that (Davey and Johnny were teammates for 14 straight seasons, Pete and Tony for 13 straight). Part of that is a by-product of itself; the players were good, therefore the team was really good, therefore the players were kept around for a long time, therefore they rank pretty high on the list. The only parallel I could think of was maybe the Orioles who: a) were also really good in the 70's; b) also do not have an otherwise exceptional history; and c) employed Frank Robinson.

The success of the Big Red Machine wasn't altogether exceptional; there have been other teams with great stretches, some even greater. The BRM tends to be highlighted, in my opinion, because they were so lopsided in favor of the offense, which was a great one. Easier to get excited about, perhaps. At any rate, the Big Red Machine era seems so extraordinary, partly because it stands out so singularly in the franchise's history. Since 1900, the Reds have had 12 seasons with a winning percentage above .600. Half of those came between 1970 and 1976. Otherwise, as a rule, the historical record is scattered with onesies and twosies. Free agency, varying levels of parity, and the sheer fact that dynasties are rare are all factors in this; nonetheless, the Reds have spawned exactly one dynasty (or even mini-dynasty) in its history.

The funny thing about the Big Red Machine is that they still feel like a relatively recent phenomenon, despite the passage of 40 years time since Sparky was hired. Maybe part of that is due to the direct link from that era that continues to call the games over the airwaves. Or maybe that the heroes from those days are still with us, many of them still connected to the game. Or maybe that the Reds, for the better part of a decade, set an impossible standard that will loom large over whatever accomplishments the present and future Reds teams are able to achieve.

*************************************************

To officially close this project, I would like to say thank you to:

Baseballreference.com, for being awesome
Dave Studeman, for producing a Win Shares database
Wikipedia, for being a go-to resource on basic biographical details
Red Reporter, for being the best Reds-related blog in the intertubes

Fin.

The Greatest Reds: #1

riverfront76 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:01:03 -0000

1. Pete Rose

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1963-78, 1984-86	LF, 3B, 2B, RF, 1B	1	4	2
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1969	1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971
84%	16%	0%	1969	1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Most Valuable Player – 1973 Rookie of Year – 1963 World Series MVP – 1975 Hutch Award – 1968 Lou Gehrig Award – 1969 Roberto Clemente Award – 1976 Gold Glove – 1969, 1970 All Star – 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1985	Hits – 1965, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1973, 1976 Plate Appearances – 1965, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1978 At Bats – 1965, 1972, 1973, 1977 On Base Percentage – 1968 Batting Average – 1968, 1969, 1973 Runs Scored – 1969, 1974, 1975, 1976 Singles – 1973 Doubles – 1974, 1975, 1976, 1978		-1st in career runs scored -1st in career doubles -1st in career hits -1st in career walks -4th in career RBI

via www.mkrob.com

Peter Edward Rose, perhaps more than any man in the history of the world, was built to hit .300. One suspects that it was not only important to him (you just *know* he kept track of his stats), but that there was some sort of innate necessity—like an internal magnet that drew him towards a .300 batting average. I say this for a variety of reasons: one, Rose played for a really, really long time, came up to bat more than anyone ever, and hit .303 for that career. But at the end of his career, he had—as player/manager—the ability to write himself in or out of the lineup. As his skills dimmed (he hit just .219 in his final season), he had the power to ensure that his lifetime mark stayed above that magic line. More interesting, however, is just how balanced it all was after 14,000 at-bats. Rose hit .302 in day games, .303 at night. He hit .303 on grass, and the same on turf. Domed stadiums presented no trouble (.301). He wasn’t a total robot—for example he was a better left-handed hitter than right—but it must have seemed that way to opponents, at times. From 1965 through 1980, Rose managed at least 175 hits in each season—and often times posted many more than that. Too much has been written about Rose, much of it either overly positive or overly negative. Here, then, are five observations about Rose, rooted primarily in fact and data:

1) Rose was at least a little bit lucky that Tommy Helms wasn’t either a bit older or a bit better. Rose won Rookie of the Year in 1963, due in part to the fact that there weren’t many good candidates that year (he had just a 101 OPS+, and was caught stealing more times than he was successful). The following season, Rose was pretty bad—80 OPS+, didn’t field particularly well, etc. The Reds had Helms, another 2nd baseman, in AAA that year, and he was just not quite ready for prime time. Actually, as his career unveiled, it turned out he wasn’t quite good enough to be foundational to a winning team. Rose bounced back in ’65 (led the league in hits, finished 6th in MVP voting), but an impatient team or a better alternative at 2nd base might have changed his situation considerably.

2) Rose bounced from position to position, generally at four-year intervals, and didn’t play any of them particularly well. Honestly, one of the great surprises in this entire project was that Rose won two Gold Glove awards, while playing right field, but I would guess that a retrospective, fielding data-based examination of the results wouldn’t approve. Actually, he was probably a decent enough left fielder in the early 70’s, especially playing alongside Tolan or Geronimo. He didn’t make many errors, and was almost certainly pretty intelligent about throws, or running down flies, etc.

3) One of my favorite unknowable questions in baseball history is this: how many home runs could Pete Rose have hit had he employed a different style of hitting? He certainly didn’t hit very many as it was: just 160 of his 4256 hits went over the fence, and he peaked at 16, twice. From 1972 on, he reached double digit dingers just once. Still, he regularly led the league in doubles (five separate times during his 30’s), and he appeared to be muscular enough to turn some of those doubles into home runs. One imagines that his mental calculus determined that trying for home runs decrease the batting average, and that might mean he drop below .300…

4) Rose played until he was 45 years old. He clearly and transparently played long enough to eclipse Ty Cobb’s hits record. Still, he was good enough in 1985, at age 44, to post a .395 on-base percentage.

5) Throughout his career and its aftermath, Rose was probably a bit overrated. He was flashy, a great quote, a statistical freak given his longevity, and he had an elevated profile in part due to the greatness of his teammates. His peak was very good, but wasn’t other-worldly (he had only two seasons with OPS+ marks above 150, although he was generally on-base heavy). Still, it’s possible that his ridiculous career marks are understated. The indescribably good Baseball-reference.com takes efforts to translate each player’s season to a "neutral" offensive era, whereby teams average just over 4.4 runs per game. Since Rose’s peak took place in the pitcher-friendly 1960’s, he emerges favorably from this exercise, which imagines 4,604 career hits, 800 doubles, and an OPS of 815 instead of his actual 784.

Rose spent 19 seasons with the Reds, came to bat over 12,000 times, scored over 1700 runs, maintained a 124 OPS+, and reached base safely over 4,500 times.

The Top 15 Left Fielders in Reds history

1          Pete Rose
2          Frank Robinson
3          George Foster
4          Adam Dunn
5          Bob Bescher
6          Pat Duncan
7          Kal Daniels
8          Eric Tipton
9          Babe Herman
10        Joe Kelley
11        Dmitri Young
12        Gary Redus
13        Elmer Smith
14        Jerry Lynch
15        Mike Donlin

The Greatest Reds: #2

riverfront76 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:56:15 -0000

2. Johnny Bench

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1967-1983	C, 3B, 1B	2	2	4
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1972	1970, 1972
72%	28%	0%	1972	1970, 1972
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Inducted to Hall of Fame – 1989 Most Valuable Player – 1970, 1972 TSN Player of Year – 1970 Rookie of Year – 1968 World Series MVP – 1976 Lou Gehrig Award – 1975 Babe Ruth Award – 1976 Hutch Award – 1981 Gold Glove – 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977 All Star – 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1983	Runs Batted In – 1970, 1972, 1974 Home Runs – 1970, 1972 Extra Base Hits – 1970, 1974 Sacrifice Flies – 1970, 1972, 1973 Intentional Walks – 1972 Total Bases – 1974		-1st in career RBI -1st in career home runs -4th in career runs scored -4th in career doubles -5th in career hits

via artfiles.art.com

Bench is on the short list of the greatest catcher of all time, so there seems little point in what-if scenarios. And the grueling nature of catching makes long-term projections seem suspect. Nonetheless, Johnny Bench—through his age 24 season in 1972—had not only two seasons in which he had 40 or more home runs, but he had also just doubled his walk rate, drawing 100 free passes in 1972. Under typical scenarios and aging patterns, this should have meant some amazing things—if I scale down Bench’s projections from a 1972 vantage point to match his actual playing time over the years due to injuries, etc., he still projected to hit 500 home runs, instead of his actual 389.

As the story goes, a spot was found on an x-ray of Bench’s lungs during the ’72 season, and while the tumor turned out to be benign, he still needed surgery, which—again, as the claim goes—severely impacted Bench’s power at the plate. Maybe it’s true, maybe it’s wishful conjecture from a wistful athlete who happened to peak early, but the fact remains that the early part of Bench’s career was basically meant to blow your mind. Despite being hampered by injury in 1971, Bench had 154 home runs and 512 RBI before turning 25—both representing better starts than Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, or Reggie Jackson, all of whom also got early career starts. For all the impressive hitting stats, by all accounts Bench revolutionized the catcher position defensively. Most fielding statistics cannot possibly do his reputation justice; perhaps only the caught stealing percentages get us close (routinely around 50%, was 13 years into his career before the CS% dropped below 40%), as well as the ten consecutive Gold Glove awards.

The data paints a picture of Bench as a multi-dimensional athlete, especially compared to the prototypical catcher: Bench hit at least one triple in every season until 1979, he was good for a handful of steals every year—peaking at 13 in 1976, and he routinely spelled his legs by playing other positions 20-30 times a year (even playing center field a couple times in 1970). A Cincinnati Red for his entire 17-year career, Bench was productive almost until the end. 1980 was his last season as a regular catcher, crouching behind the plate in 105 games, and hitting for a 123 OPS+. A severely shortened season in 1981 (even beyond the effects of the player strike) left him as a part-time first baseman with a great bat (141 OPS+). The final two years were mostly spent at 3rd base (to poor result, defensively) and hitting right around league average. His legacy is as another lifetime Red, with a cumulative OPS+ of 126 across 8600 plate appearances, with a pair of peak seasons to rival Morgan’s finest.

The Top 15 Catchers in Reds history

1          Johnny Bench
2          Ernie Lombardi
3          Bubbles Hargrave
4          Ed Bailey
5          Johnny Edwards
6          Ray Mueller
7          Ivey Wingo
8          Heinie Peitz
9          Jason LaRue
10        Eddie Taubensee
11        Larry McLean
12        Joe Oliver
13        Farmer Vaughn
14        Tommy Clarke
15        Smoky Burgess

The Greatest Reds: #3

riverfront76 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:52:11 -0000

3. Joe Morgan

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1972-1979	2B	7	1	1
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1975	1973, 1974, 1975, 1976
83%	17%	0%	1975	1973, 1974, 1975, 1976
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Inducted to Hall of Fame – 1990 Most Valuable Player – 1975, 1976 TSN Player of Year – 1975, 1976 All Star MVP – 1972 Gold Glove – 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977 All Star – 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979	On Base Percentage – 1972, 1974, 1975, 1976 Runs Scored – 1972 Walks – 1972, 1975 OPS+ – 1975, 1976 OPS – 1975, 1976 Slugging Percentage – 1976 Sacrifice Flies – 1976		-2nd in career stolen bases -3rd in career OPS+ -5th in career walks -10th in career runs scored -13th in career home runs

via members.socket.net

Of the 10 best individual seasons by a Reds player since the advent of the live-ball era, five of them belong to Joe Morgan (the ’72-’76 years). Since the "prime" rank is used to describe how good a player was over his best five consecutive seasons, a #1 ranking for Morgan in that category still probably understates his greatness over that stretch (Morgan’s prime score is 22% higher than the #2 guy). Upon being traded to the Reds after the 1971 season, Morgan had already turned 28 years of age, but was probably seen as an underwhelming acquisition: he had only barely topped a .400 slugging percentage in three distinct seasons, had relatively low batting averages, and had only made two all-star teams. This was worth giving up Lee May? Credit the Reds for taking the damaging effects of the Astrodome into account, however, as Morgan had a very respectable 121 OPS+ to that point of his career. Still, I have a hard time believing that the Reds’ brass had any idea just how good a player they were getting.

Words can’t possibly describe this magnificent 5-year stretch, so let’s just lay out the numbers. Remember that this is coming from a 5’7", slick-fielding 2nd baseman… 1972: 292/417/435 (149 OPS+), 122 runs, 73 RBI, 58 SB, 115 BB, 44 K. 1973: 290/406/493 (154 OPS+), 116 runs, 82 RBI, 67 SB, 111 BB, 61 K. 1974: 293/427/494 (159 OPS+), 107 runs, 67 RBI, 58 SB, 120 BB, 69 K. 1975: 327/466/508 (169 OPS+), 107 runs, 94 RBI, 67 SB, 132 BB, 52 K. 1976: 320/444/576 (187 OPS+), 113 runs, 111 RBI, 60 SB, 114 BB, 41 K. Strangely, he was never that good a postseason performer (lifetime postseason OPS of 671), but that’s pretty much the only transgression., although if he had hit at all in the ’72 World Series, the Reds might have won (Morgan had only one hit in the four losses to the A’s, all of which were one-run losses).

Morgan had a really good 1977 season, albeit not quite at the level of the previous five years, then fell down to the status of merely good, with OPS+’s of 105 and 107 in 1978 and ’79, respectively, and Morgan was granted free agency after the 1979 season—leaving the Reds with Junior Kennedy and Ron Oester to man his vacated position as he signed with the Astros. In terms of the brightest star ever to grace Cincy’s ballfields, Morgan is a strong #1 with a cushion—and we’re unlikely to see anything like it in Redsland again. His final numbers for his Reds tenure: just under 5000 plate appearances, over 400 stolen bases, 147 OPS+, 5 Gold Glove awards.

The Top 15 Second Basemen in Reds history

1          Joe Morgan
2          Bid McPhee
3          Lonny Frey
4          Miller Huggins
5          Johnny Temple
6          Ron Oester
7          Hughie Critz
8          Brandon Phillips*
9          Bret Boone
10        Dick Egan
11        Sam Bohne
12        Tommy Helms
13        Pokey Reese
14        Morrie Rath
15        Tony Cuccinello
*active

The Greatest Reds: #4

riverfront76 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:36:47 -0000

4. Barry Larkin

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1986-2004	SS	3	10	11
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1992	1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998
71%	29%	0%	1992	1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Most Valuable Player – 1995 Roberto Clemente Award – 1993 Lou Gehrig Award – 1994 Silver Slugger – 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999 Gold Glove – 1994, 1995, 1996 All Star – 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2004	N/A		-2nd in career doubles -2nd in career hits -3rd in career runs scored -3rd in career stolen bases -6th in career RB

via cdn.bleacherreport.com

In 19 seasons, all with the Reds, the injury-prone Larkin had just four years where he played in 150 games or more. Similarly, over the 13 consecutive year stretch in which Larkin posted a 100 OPS+ or higher every single season, he averaged just 126 games played. While this depressed Larkin’s counting numbers and peak impact, he was an impressive player nonetheless, with seemingly no weakness: he had speed (5 different times with at least 30 steals), he had power (consistently reaching 30 doubles, once hit as many as 33 home runs), and he provided solid defense (note the Gold Glove awards, although the specific years he won were probably make-up awards for the years where the Ozzie Smith inertia screwed Larkin out of winning).

From a less quantitative standpoint, Larkin was also one of the smartest players I’ve ever seen; this too is evidenced to some degree by the numbers (83% steal percentage, 15% more walks than strikeouts). In 1995, Larkin won the NL MVP due to his award-winning defense, his 51 stolen bases (against just 5 times caught), and his 133 OPS+ bat from the shortstop position. While there were possibly more worthy recipients that year, Larkin quieted doubters by following up with a monster 1996, in which he hit the aforementioned 33 dingers, scored 117 runs, and posted a 154 OPS+. Naturally, he finished 12th in MVP voting that year. In a note that reflects both on Larkin and on the teams for which he played, no Reds player has been the singular best player on the team in as many seasons as Larkin (8 different seasons, by my count), and no Reds player’s stretch of inter-team dominance spanned as long (11 years from 1988 to 1998). In that time, Larkin managed a 130 OPS+ or higher seven different times, which was obviously an incredible asset from such an important defensive position. Larkin made the most of his limited postseason opportunities, hitting 338/397/465 in 78 plate appearances. For his regular-season career, Larkin finished with over 9000 plate appearances and a 116 OPS+.

The Top 15 Shortstops in Reds history

1          Barry Larkin
2          Dave Concepcion
3          Leo Cardenas
4          Roy McMillan
5          Tommy Corcoran
6          Germany Smith
7          Billy Myers
8          Eddie Miller
9          Buck Herzog
10        Larry Kopf
11        Eddie Joost
12        Hod Ford
13        Felipe Lopez
14        Ike Caveney
15        Tom Downey

The Greatest Reds: #5

riverfront76 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:34:02 -0000

5. Frank Robinson

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1956-1965	LF, RF, 1B	4	3	3
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1962	1956, 1957, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1964
88%	12%	0%	1962	1956, 1957, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1964
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Inducted to Hall of Fame – 1982 Most Valuable Player – 1961 Rookie of Year – 1956 Gold Glove – 1958 All Star – 1956, 1957, 1959 (2), 1961 (2), 1962, 1965	Runs Scored – 1956, 1962 Hit By Pitch – 1956, 1959, 1960, 1962, 1963, 1965 OPS+ – 1960, 1961, 1962 OPS – 1960, 1961, 1962 Slugging Percentage – 1960, 1961, 1962 Intentional Walks – 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964 Sacrifice Flies – 1961 Extra Base Hits – 1962 On Base Percentage – 1962 Doubles – 1962		-1st in career OPS+ -2nd in career home runs -5th in career RBI -5th in career runs scored -7th in career doubles

via static.howstuffworks.com

Signed as a 17 year old out of high school, Robinson was an instant star, destroying three levels of minor league ball in his first three professional seasons, before being given the full-time left field job in 1956, at age 20. Robinson—tying a rookie record in the process—hit 38 home runs, good for 2nd in the NL, and his 6th place OPS+ finish (142) gave evidence to Robinson being more than your basic slugger. In fact, Robinson’s career was partly defined by his unusual ability to be hit by a pitch, due to his habit of crowding the plate. For his inaugural efforts, Robinson was unanimously selected as Rookie of the Year, and he even received significant support for the overall MVP, finishing 7th. Robinson hit 60 more dingers over the next two years, won a Gold Glove award in left field, and kept receiving consistent down-ballot MVP support, despite his decreased production compared to his rookie year.

Defensively, Robinson was flexible, but perhaps would have been better served not to be. He was a good fielder in LF (with the stats perhaps swayed by Crosley Field’s smallish left-field area), but he was—at various points in his career—also inserted in center field, right field, first base, and third base. At none of those positions was he anything better than mediocre, leading to an assumption that neither his range nor his arm nor his glove were especially gifted. However, despite his Gold Glove award in 1958, Robinson was moved to first base the next year and curiously enough, his hitting exploded to a new level with new career highs in RBI, steals, walks, and OPS/OPS+. The next three years, mainly split between first base and right field, defined an obvious peak for Robinson, concurrent with an impressive decrease in strikeouts (never whiffing more than 67 times over this 3-year stretch). From 1960-62, Robinson had three straight years of leading the NL in OPS and OPS+ (among contemporaries such as Mays, Aaron, and Clemente), with a cumulative stat line of 323/411/611 (168 OPS+). 1962 was particularly peakish: 51 doubles, 39 homers, 134 runs scored, 136 RBI, 342/421/624 (173 OPS+). While not quite to that level, the following three years were mighty fine as well.

Robinson was now 30 years old, with ten full seasons with the Reds. His stats almost exactly worked out to 150 games per year, and here was his average season in Cincy: 303/389/554 (150 OPS+), 104 runs, 101 RBI, 32 doubles, 32 home runs, 16 steals, 70 walks, 79 strikeouts. There’s a caveat that Robinson was custom-built to play in Crosley Field (his career OPS in Crosley was 1002, as compared to his overall Reds OPS of 943), but still—those numbers ain’t bad. Which brings us to the obvious Robinson narrative: the trade. In December, 1965, Robinson was traded to the Baltimore Orioles for Jack Baldschun, Milt Pappas, and Dick Simpson. Robinson promptly had the best season of his career with 49 home runs and a 198 OPS+ while the Reds fell from an 89-win team to a 76-win squad. Befitting the curious circle of life, Tony Perez benefitted the most from Robinson’s departure, but he had a poor 1966 season, and the Reds had no one to replace Robby’s bat. Was the trade defensible? No one could have predicted Robinson’s post-age-30 resurgence…he had up to that point followed a typical aging pattern. The problem was certainly with the return: Pappas was younger, but had already racked up 1600 innings, and while Simpson was a nominally promising outfielder, the prior season he struck out 148 times in AAA-ball, rarely an indicator of future success. As fate would have it, Robinson re-surfaced in 1970 to help beat the Reds in the World Series. He hit for a 151 OPS+ that year at age 34, which would have certainly earned him a spot in the lineup, presumably replacing Lee May at first base. Given May’s status as the linchpin to the Joe Morgan trade, that’s a very interesting alternate reality scenario…

The Greatest Reds: #6

riverfront76 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:30:35 -0000

6. Tony Perez

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1964-76, 1984-86	1B, 3B	6	8	6
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1970	Never
86%	14%	0%	1970	Never
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Inducted to Hall of Fame – 2000 All Star MVP – 1967 All Star – 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1974, 1975, 1976	N/A		-2nd in career RBI -3rd in career home runs -6th in career doubles -6th in career hits -8th in career runs scored

via images.art.com

If you’ve had any kind of indoctrination in Reds history, you are well aware of Tony Perez and his proclivity for clutch hitting. If you’ve had any kind of indoctrination in sabermetrics, you are already thinking up ways to discredit that last sentence. So then, how to consider Tony Perez? His career spanned 23 seasons (16 with the Reds), and his lifetime career OPS was 804. Looking at his career splits yields some interesting results, as compared to the 804 benchmark: An OPS of 833 with runners in scoring position (while only 764 with nobody on); when the game was in the 7th inning or later, and the score was close, Perez hit for an 859 mark; in "high leverage" situations (as defined by Tom Tango), the OPS was 859—in low leverage game states it was just 776; and in extra innings, Perez was off the charts with a career 984 OPS. Case closed, right? Digging deeper, if we look at Perez’s best season of 1970, in which he had a 990 OPS, we see almost no difference in his stats if the bases were empty or if there were runners in scoring position…and his high leverage numbers were worse (939 OPS) than his overall totals. In his next best season (1973), Perez actually hit the best in "medium leverage" situations. In 1975, while finishing 3rd in the NL in RBI, Perez’s overall OPS was 34 points higher than when filtering out all but his high leverage at-bats.

Is the clutch status a myth? Not necessarily, but I think there were probably three other issues contributing to this storyline: 1) Perez hit 4th or 5th for some really good offensive teams who put a premium on getting on base. Perez finished in the NL top 10 in RBI ten straight times (1967-76) without putting up consistently gaudy numbers, although he certainly had his moments, so presumably the perception was that there was some intangible skill beyond sheer volume of run-driving opportunity. 2) As documented in Joe Posnanski’s book on the ’75 team, Perez wasn’t very adept at producing quotable copy for the beat writers, so the clutch meme was probably an easy story to create. 3) In Perez’s first three full-time seasons (1967-69), the numbers were so overwhelmingly skewed towards the high leverage performances that it would have been nearly impossible to miss (3-year composite OPS: 823, "late and close" OPS over that period: 1027).

Depending on your point of view, this may constitute evidence for Perez’s clutchness, but it almost certainly set the tone for the rest of his career. As for that career, Perez played in over 1900 games for the Reds and hit well (127 OPS+). His peak came while hitting near a 160 OPS+; potentially MVP-worthy were it not for a certain catcher teammate. Perez was famously traded after the 1976 season to make room for Danny Driessen. Conceptually, the move made sense: Perez was 34 years old, he had clearly settled into a plateau a few degrees removed from his peak, and the Reds were dealing from a place of surplus. In reality, the move didn’t work. Although Driessen was an adequate replacement, the offensive depth was reduced to nothing, and more importantly—the players received from Montreal in return for Perez (Woodie Fryman and Dale Murray) pitched horribly for the Reds. Or maybe there was some clutch element missing…

The Top 15 First Basemen in Reds history

1          Tony Perez
2          Ted Kluszewski
3          Frank McCormick
4          Dan Driessen
5          Jake Beckley
6          Sean Casey
7          Lee May
8          Jake Daubert
9          Dick Hoblitzel
10        Hal Morris
11        Rube Bressler
12        Gordy Coleman
13        Deron Johnson
14        Hal Chase
15        Joey Votto*

*active

The Greatest Reds: #7

riverfront76 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:26:14 -0000

7. Edd Roush

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1916-26, 1931	CF	8	7	7
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1919	1919, 1920
82%	18%	0%	1919	1919, 1920
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Inducted to Hall of Fame – 1962	Batting Average – 1917, 1919 Singles – 1917 OPS+ – 1918 OPS – 1918 Slugging Percentage – 1918 At Bat / Strikeout Ratio – 1918, 1921, 1931 Sacrifice Hits – 1918 Doubles – 1923 Triples – 1924		-2nd in career batting average -2nd in career triples -8th in career OPS+ -10th in career doubles -11th in career runs scored

via baseballchronicle.net

In July of 1916, the Reds traded Buck Herzog and Red Killefer, two players on the wrong side of 30 with limited future value, for three future hall-of-famers. One of the stars was just about done with his amazing career (Christy Mathewson), and one was a below-average player who would garner his fame as a manager (Bill McKechnie)—including two trips with the Reds to the World Series in 1939-40. The other future hall of famer was a 23 year old ballhawk named Edd Roush who had some success in a couple seasons in the Federal League, but in 71 National League plate appearances with the Giants had shown to be quite the bust.

Upon arriving in Cincinnati, however, Roush’s fortunes changed: his batting average rose 100 points and his slugging percentage 200 points over his New York line, and he was just getting started. His first full year in Cincy (1917) saw Roush lead the league with a .341 batting average, and what would be the highest OPS+ of his career (159). The next year he topped all Nationals in OPS/OPS+ (823/153), and the year after that, Roush continued using his incredibly heavy bat (48 oz.) to near-perfection, again pacing the league in hitting (.321 batting average). The 1919 season, in addition to being a banner year for the team, was where all of Roush’s skills harmonically aligned. The hitting excellence continued, per usual: along with the high average, Roush finished 2nd in RBI (71), 5th in runs (73), and posted a 3rd-best OPS+ of 146. In the field, Roush set himself apart. To that point in his career, Roush would generally commit 10-15 errors per season, in line with the average outfield percentages of the day. He was, nonetheless, considered a good fielder, due to his speed and what was considered the best outfield arm in the game. In 1919, the errors dried up, and he made 22 assists against just 4 errors. His fielding percentage was over 25 points higher than the average outfielder, all while making half a play more per game. In that year’s World Series Roush hit poorly (.214 average), a fact that perhaps contributed to his life-long insistence that the Reds would have beaten Chicago if the games were on the level.

In 1921, Roush kicked off a 3-year stretch of batting for at least a .350 average (and just missed a 4th year in 1924 by one hit). The middle of that stretch—1922—was marred by a contract dispute that caused Roush to play in just 49 of the team’s 156 games that year. Perhaps the time off was put to good use, though, since Roush came back in 1923 with a career-high 41 doubles (his prior high was just 27) and a 148 OPS+. By this point, Roush was 30 years old, and a slow fade commenced, although his last season with the Reds before being traded back to the Giants still produced a solid OPS+ of 123. After 3 years with the Giants, and then a lost season (1930) to another holdout, Roush came back for a last hurrah with the Reds, but his hitting skills had declined to the point where he was no longer a viable contributor, and he retired after the season.

The Top 15 Center Fielders in Reds history

1          Edd Roush
2          Vada Pinson
3          Eric Davis
4          Cy Seymour
5          Gus Bell
6          Bug Holliday
7          Ken Griffey, Jr
8          Bobby Tolan
9          Cesar Geronimo
10        Dummy Hoy
11        Eddie Milner
12        Harry Craft
13        Chick Hafey
14        Johnny Bates
15        Ryan Freel

The Greatest Reds: #8

riverfront76 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:21:44 -0000

8. Heinie Groh

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1913-1921	3B, 2B	10	6	5
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1917	1915, 1916, 1917, 1918
77%	23%	0%	1917	1915, 1916, 1917, 1918
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
N/A	Hit By Pitch – 1914 Walks – 1916 On Base Percentage – 1917, 1918 Doubles – 1917, 1918 Hits – 1917 Plate Appearances – 1917 Runs Scored – 1918 OPS – 1919		-11th in career OPS+ -12th in career triples -13th in career hits -15th in career doubles -17th in career runs scored

via cdn.bleacherreport.com

Early in the 1913 season, the Reds traded Art Fromme—a veteran pitcher who had about 250 innings left in his arm—for a package of three players and cash. The highlight of the deal for the Reds was almost certainly pitcher Red Ames, who was in his early 30’s and had already strung together many very good seasons. In the end, however, Ames was an afterthought and the 23 year old second baseman with the funny name became the lasting value. Groh played a season or two as a second sacker, and then made the permanent switch across the diamond to third base, where he became the league’s preeminent defender. Groh led the league’s 3rd basemen in fielding percentage five times—often besting league averages by 20-30 percentage points, in double plays six times, and in putouts three times.

The leadoff-hitting Groh was no slouch at the plate, either. As the Reds ramped up towards their eventual World Champion team in 1919, Groh made a strong case as the best leadoff hitter in the National League, typically flirting with a .400 on-base percentage during his prime, and adding a strong number of doubles (peaking at 39 in 1917). Despite weighing less than 160 pounds, Groh was famous for using a heavy "bottle bat", which had a thin handle and a very thick barrel, and was known for his masterful bunting skills. In 1919, his third straight season with OPS+ marks over 140, Groh led the league in OPS with a 310/392/431 line, and confidently led his team into the Series. Ironically, given the efforts by the Black Sox to lose and Groh’s place as the best hitter in the league, he struggled during the series, hitting just .172 with only two doubles in 29 at-bats.

Prior to the 1921 season, a long contract dispute ended with Groh accepting a less-than-desired salary, on the condition that he be traded immediately to the Giants. Commissioner Landis nixed the deal, saying Groh had to play out the ’21 season in Cincy, but after the year was over, he was finally traded for a couple of players and $150K in cash. Cumulatively, Groh’s nine seasons in Cincy were rather remarkable: a total OPS+ of 130, and only one season under 120.

The Top 15 Third Basemen in Reds history

1          Heinie Groh
2          Arlie Latham
3          Grady Hatton
4          Chris Sabo
5          Hans Lobert
6          Harry Steinfeldt
7          Bobby Adams
8          Billy Werber
9          Aaron Boone
10        Chuck Dressen
11        Charlie Irwin
12        Babe Pinelli
13        Lew Riggs
14        Edwin Encarnacion
15        Ray Knight

The Greatest Reds: #9

riverfront76 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:18:11 -0000

9. Vada Pinson

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1958-1968	CF, RF	9	13	9
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1961	1959, 1963
79%	21%	0%	1961	1959, 1963
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Gold Glove – 1961 All Star – 1959 (2), 1960 (2)	Runs Scored – 1959 Doubles – 1959, 1960 Plate Appearances – 1959, 1960 At Bats – 1959, 1960 Hits – 1961, 1963 Singles – 1961 Triples – 1963, 1967		-5th in career triples -5th in career doubles -7th in career runs scored -10th in career RBI -10th in career home runs

via www.sportsecyclopedia.com

In the market for a sure-fire bar bet that you can spring on your fellow Reds fan? Ask him/her to name the only player who ranks in the franchise’s all-time top ten in doubles, triples, and home runs. Pinson was signed by the Reds out of high school at the age of 17. Pinson was a product of Oakland’s famous McClymonds High School, where he was teammates of Frank Robinson and Curt Flood. In fact, the Reds signed both Flood and Pinson out of high school prior to the start of the 1956 season. It was a compeition of sorts: both were talented outfielders who ultimately were to play center field in the majors. Flood won the battle, but lost the war: he made his MLB debut in that 1956 season at age 18 after having destroyed his Class B competition. Pinson, started his career one level down, but quickly made his way up as well: debuted in 1958, and handed the full time CF job in 1959, by which point Flood had been traded to the Cardinals where he had a lesser, but perhaps more impactful, career.

Pinson’s rookie season was one for the ages, leading the league in runs (131) and doubles (47), and rapping out over 200 hits. In 1961, his overall offensive production was similar, but he hit a definitive peak with the glove, recording 19 assists from center field and reaching more fly balls than most. A couple years later, he had his greatest season with the bat (with a 142 OPS+) by virtue of his .313 average, 37 doubles, 14 triples, and 22 home runs. At the end of that 1963 season, Pinson was just 25 years old, but had already had over 1,000 hits and 100 home runs. His cumulative slash line to that point was 309/355/492 (125 OPS+), and despite the low offense environment of the time Pinson’s Brock2 projection for the remainder of his career would have predicted 3,700 hits, 650 doubles and almost 400 home runs. That, obviously, would be in the category of the all-time greats. Instead, Pinson is somewhat of an afterthought in the great hitters of the 1960s. It’s not like Pinson became a bad player; he played five more seasons with the Reds after 1963, and hit for a 111 OPS+ while continuing to roam center field.

There aren’t many statistical clues for the reason for the decline, but I wonder if there was a loss of speed in 1964 for some reason (just 8 SB that year compared to an annual average of 26), and perhaps there were just enough missed infield hits or gap doubles to make a significant impact. The steals came back for the most part, but then the power started to wane, and he never really learned to take many walks. Lots of questions, few answers—although the simplest one remains: some players happen to peak early. After a 1968 season that saw Pinson hit just five homers, the Reds traded him to the Cardinals for Wayne Granger and Bobby Tolan, both of whom had brief periods of excellence in the years to follow. Pinson continued to decline, bounced around with several teams, and ended his career as a .223 hitter for the Royals in 1975 while the Big Red Machine finally emerged victorious.