SB Nation User Blog: rlgosnell

Peavy deal that makes sense ?

rlgosnell — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 07:23:39 -0000

I couldn't sleep and started thinking about the Rays as a potential trade partner and came up with a scenario that makes sense - to me at least. I'm curious as to how some of you see this trade in terms of value for all parties concerned. I haven't thought about it extensively but I think it might seem reasonable on the surface.

Rays get - Mather, Duncan and take on Pineiro and his contract.

Pads get - Zobrist, Sonnanstine, Kozma, Brian Anderson and Skip.

Cards get - Peavy and Greene.

The Rays would get a RF with some pop in Mather and a potential DH in Duncan while moving a pitcher to make room for Price in the rotation. Pineiro and Edwin Jackson (who could be included in place of Sonnanstine) compete for the 5th rotation spot or Pineiro is moved to the pen as a swingman. They solidfy their lineup while assuming the risk of Duncan and taking on an obviously bad contract.

The Padres get a SS in Zobrist with future protection in Kozma. They also get a ML ready CF and SP who are both cost controlled instead of gambling with potential prospects. In addition they get a solid catching prospect, while getting out of 2 hefty contracts.

The Cards get the centerpiece of the trade in Peavy and assume Greene's contract, which is offset by moving Pineiro's contract which makes it a wash in terms of dollars.

Obviously this deal is a plum for us because we get Peavy without giving up Rasmus, Jones or any of our pitching prospects. We move a bad contract and still have solid OF depth and our top prospects. We could easily include a minor league RP or SP that we consider in the middle of the depth chart along with another OF like Jon Jay to either team to increase the value to them. I think the Pads get everything they're looking for and would be happy to get a proven, yet young SP and immediate help in the MIF and CF. I don't know how the Rays would preceive the deal, without knowing how they value Mather and certainly with questions about Duncan's health and Pineiro's contract. If we did have to include sweetners it would likely be on their end of the deal. I realize we are giving up 6 players in this scenario, but 2 have major warts (Pineiro and Duncan), while Skip and Mather are at positions of depth and Anderson is currently blocked by Molina.

So there's the strawman - feel free to tear it down and rebuild it - or just tear it down altogether. I'm interested in how others see this and whether you have ideas to improve the overall value of the deal for any or all parties involved.

Can Mather play 3B?

rlgosnell — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 21:16:21 -0000

I'm going to research some of Mather's MiLB history and see where he played and how he performed, but at the moment I'm feeling lazy and hoping that someone with more and direct familiarity with the farm system (i live in TX so i dont get to see the young kids live) could speak on Mather's ability to play 3B. Dan and Al rave about his athletic ability and he seems to be competent enough in LF and considering he has played a little in CF maybe they're right. If he could play 3B and we could move Glaus for an offensive (statistically) MIF as opposed to the offensive (morally) MIF we already have then that could be a significant upgrade. I'm thinking Rollins and Orlando Hudson up the middle with Mather and Albert at the corners might suffice.

Yadi in the 2 Hole

rlgosnell — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 04:35:57 -0000

I know this goes against TLR's near insistence on power in the 2 Hole going back to his days with Carlton Fisk and the White Sox, but after watching tonight's dissapointing game I can't help but think about what I thought was the key at bat of the night. Bottom 8 and Mather grounds into the 6-4-3 to end the inning and leave Pujols on deck and Lidge coming in for the 9th to face the heart of the order with a clean slate. Personally, I felt that Mather took a poor approach to the plate for the at bat against a pitcher who stayed away with sliders the entire time. After getting ahead 2-0 Mather fouled off the next two pitches and rolled over on the last one to bounce into the inning ending double play. It was clear they were going to stay away and Mather never looked to hit the ball to the right side, instead insisting on pulling the ball. The desired outcome for the Phillies is painfully obvious - get the twin killing to leave Pujols to lead off with no men on and limiting his damage potential. Yet Mather never made an adjustment and played right into the Phillies' plan. The most important outcome for the Cards after that at bat was having Mather on base, regardless of how he got there. Not only did he not get on 1st, but he wiped out the inning.

In re-thinking that at bat I considered what would have happened and what would happen on a nightly basis if Yadi was in the 2 hole instead. There are obvious negatives to this lineup change. One, Yadi is slow. He's not just slow - he's painfully slow. He's so slow that he makes Manny's 5.7 time to first look like a blur. This presents obvious problems in terms of clogging the base paths, nearly eliminating runs from first on Pujols doubles and increasing potential GIDP's. It also takes a power bat out of the 2 hole and moves it down in the lineup to the 6 hole which is normally manned by Yadi. However, I think it presents some benefits worth considering and might utilize his skills more effectively.

First of all, this team doesn't run anyway and while not being a moneyball adherent I feel like on this team especially there's little use for speed at the top. TLR admits we don't have legitimate protection for Pujols so opening first base on a steal does us no good. The guys behind Yadi are going to put together the bulk of the team's extra base hits which limits the need for the 1 and 2 hitters to get a steal or extra base by themselves to generate runs. Pujols is an aware, aggressive baserunner he's by no means fast, so it's not like your in danger of him overrunning Yadi. Yadi has a solid OBP of 355 which is better than anyone else besides Skip and the RBI guys. Bottom line in my mind is getting guys on base in front of #5 and Yadi gets on base. He has great bat control which allows him to go the other way. He rarely strikes out. He has 103 hits and only 19 XBH. Combined with his lack of speed it makes him a poor choice in the 6 hole because the guys behind him are going to need help generating runs - ie. someone who can steal a base or go 1st to 3rd - which he can't do. He doesn't generate any self-contained runs with occasional dingers and the problem with the lack of speed in hitting in front of Pujols exists with him in the 6 hole but is compounded by the fact that there are no run producers behind him. The GIDP's from Pujols are more an issue of Pujols' lack of speed and because he hits the ball so hard the lead runner is going to be forced out regardless.

During and after tonight's game I just felt that Yadi would have given us a great chance to break that inning and the game open with a great approach and a great at bat. Furthermore I think it's at least worth experimenting with Yadi in the 2 hole, given that TLR experiments with so many different lineups. It would deepen the lineup and put a legitimate run producer - Ankiel or Mather - in the 6 hole to keep us from having to get our runs out of the top 5.

Out of Towner - where to sit ??

rlgosnell — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 05:29:34 -0000

I'm looking into making a trip in August and I'm looking for help on where to look for seats in Busch III. I've heard there are parts of the stadium that are pretty brutal with respect to the sun.

Also, any help with regards to where to eat or hang out before and after games would be great. I know Pujols and Edmonds both have restaraunts but I'd like to find some places where Cards fans meet up. Any ideas?

Bay, Holliday - can someone make sense of this?

rlgosnell — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 02:41:24 -0000

Hey all,

I'm a 3rd generation Cards fan living in Texas so I don't get the local spin on the team apart from what I read in the Dispatch website or during game broadcasts on the Extra Innings package (which hasn't had an FSN-Midwest broadcast in semmingly forever). I've read a couple of names (Bay and Holliday) that really don't make much sense to me so I'm not sure why they're being floated or if fans in STL are in favor or opposed to such trades. Both players would supplant either Schumaker or Ludwick in the present and Rasmus in the future. Since I don't think Rasmus would be included in a deal for either it doesn't make sense to further crowd an already crowded outfield. And since Ludwick and Bay are close to a wash offensively and Schumaker is clearly our best leadoff hitter it doesn't make much sense in the present. I watch parts of every game on a nightly basis and I get sick of flipping the channel and seeing Manny protecting JD Drew or Ramirez protecting Derrick Lee and no one protecing Pujols, but these OF options just don't make any sense to me. Adding an OF bat and keeping Ludwick in the lineup removes a solid OBP option in Skip and makes me fear TLR will play Miles more at 2B to make it up and playing Skip robs us of Ludwick's bat which doesn't maximize the potential of adding a Bay or Holliday. I know power bats in the middle infield don't grow on trees, but with the roster constructed the way it is, that's what we need. What's the word on the trade front around STL?