SB Nation User Blog: robbbbbb

Raiders Achieve First Down

robbbbbb — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 22:30:53 -0000

Raiders Achieve First Down

Another classic from The Onion. There's a reason they're America's Finest News Source.

Doug Farrar on Aaron Curry

robbbbbb — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:50:44 -0000

Doug Farrar on Aaron Curry

Doug Farrar covers Aaron Curry's Sunday in the first part of this week's Cover 3 at Football Outsiders.

Game Theory and Playcalling

robbbbbb — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 22:11:26 -0000

Game Theory and Playcalling

Via Football Outsiders. To translate from the Econspeak: "NFL teams should pass more. They'd win more games."

The Difference Between Us and Them

robbbbbb — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 16:52:00 -0000

Mike Tanier, in this week's Walkthrough on Football Outsiders asks, "What Do I Know?"

It's an interesting and useful question. Because really, what separates Tanier from the rest of us? The ability and willingness to sit down and immerse himself in football for hours on end, and then share what he's learned with us. Tanier makes the point that he's only got a 5-10% advantage over the rest of us in his ability to research information and spit it back to us.

Indeed, he says, "Anyone could do this, by being a committed researcher." Like, say, John Morgan, who's made the leap from "anonymous blogger" to "dedicated and informed commenter" by some serious research and football-watching. And all the better for us, who get to read his great commentary.

Just watch out, John. The next guy's looking over your shoulder, and he's got the tools to be you.

FO's Preseason DVOA Out

robbbbbb — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 04:50:11 -0000

FO's Preseason DVOA Out

As is the first Postseason Odds Report. Two things of note:

(1) FO thinks the 'Hawks are the favorites in the NFC West.

(2) FO thinks Denver's the worst team in football, and likely to hand the 'Hawks the first pick in the 2010 draft.

Goodell Suggests Longer Season

robbbbbb — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 16:57:47 -0000

Surprised nobody's mentioned this one yet. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is pushing for a longer NFL season.

Goodell wants a 17 or 18 game season, with fewer preseason games. Says the Commish: "A key point is the fans also recognize players they want to see are not in those preseason games; that’s why they are not attractive. They want to see those players play.”

Obviously, huge issues to work out with the NFLPA and the rest of the league. I doubt this gets done for the 2009 season, or even 2010. It is, however, a real possibility as part of the 2011 season, assuming Goodell avoids a strike.

(And how, you ask, does the league get a 17 game season? Easy. Each team plays one game at a neutral site, and this gives the NFL a chance to move some more games to international locations.)

So, Let's Talk About Quarterbacks

robbbbbb — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 18:52:16 -0000

The NFL has a quarterback problem. To wit: Nobody in the NFL has the least idea what makes for a successful professional quarterback. Back in December, Malcolm Gladwell wrote an article for The New Yorker talking about The Quarterback Problem. An excerpt:

But Couch was a flop in the pros. It wasn't that professional quarterbacks didn't need to be accurate. It was that the kind of accuracy required to do the job well could be measured only in a real N.F.L. game.

Gladwell weaves it in to talking about a couple other professions where it's been very difficult to predict future success: teaching and financial advice.

When we start talking about the Seahawks' draft, this is a good point to keep in mind: Nobody really knows what predicts future success in an NFL quarterback. It'd be great if the Seahawks could find gold in a QB at the top of the draft, but it isn't a given. Drafting quarterbacks is an inherently risky proposition.

Why the NFL Should Replace the OT Coin Toss

robbbbbb — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:36:53 -0000

Slate has an excellent article today talking about solutions to the NFL's overtime coin toss problem.

Simply put: The team that wins the toss in overtime wins the game about 60% of the time. In the '08 season, that number was 70%. And we all remember that Peyton Manning never saw the field against the Chargers in the first round of the playoffs. The NFL's OT system has to change.

I always appreciate well-designed systems that use good incentives to promote optimal solutions. It's one reason that the study of economics appeals. And the suggestions in this article include methods that would balance overtime and create tension (and thus entertainment!) for the viewing public.