SB Nation User Blog: robcast23

Yankees acquire #1 pick in Rule 5 Draft

robcast23 — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:25:45 -0000

Yankees acquire #1 pick in Rule 5 Draft

I was not aware that this was what they swapped Bruney for. It's actually a really smart move in that they should be able to replicate Bruney's production (and probably more) for about $1.5M less.

From our perspective it sucks; though we're the 7th pick overall there was a good chance we were going to be the first team to select someone.

Sunday Morning Funnies

robcast23 — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 13:19:04 -0000

Sunday Morning Funnies

Kottaras Waived, Claimed

robcast23 — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 02:34:28 -0000

Kottaras Waived, Claimed

No reason why Omar shouldn't have made this move considering we have waiver priority over MIL based on record. You can never have too many young/cheap/talented catchers in an organization, especially one that hasn't produced a ~~good~~ serviceable catcher in what seems like decades.

While his defense needs work, Kottaras hit 22hrs in AAA as recently as '08. Limited ab's due to injuries/knuckleball catcher status hurt his #'s this season but make no mistake, Kottaras is worth the $400k he's owed and then some.

Scouting is an Inexact Science

robcast23 — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:29:13 -0000

Scouting is an Inexact Science

Read an interesting quote this morning that sheds some light on the fallibility of scouting. For those concerned about Adam Rubin's now infamous scouting report regarding Jeurys Famila, make sure to take that w/ a grain of salt:

"I've talked to three scouts this week who saw him (A's prospect Grant Desme) at various stages of the season. One saw him at Low-A Kane County, one saw him at High-A Stockton, and one saw him in Arizona. All three had wildly varying opinions on Desme, with projections ranging from never getting to the big leagues to hitting 30 home runs there." -BP's Kevin Goldstein in the Nov 11th 'Minor League Update'

Devil's Advocate: Final Edition

robcast23 — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 16:30:46 -0000

For those of you who haven't seen, I've been posting a running comparison of many of the players that the Mets were rumored to be interested in last winter vs. the players that we actually ended up with. (See part I here, part II here and part III here) This will be the final and decisive comparison to decide once and for all what Omar truly should have done last offseason.

Winner:

Player	IP	ERA	FIP	tRA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	AVG	BABIP	WAR
Oliver Perez	66.0	6.82	6.40	6.96	8.45	7.91	1.64	.270	.315	-0.8
Derek Lowe	194.2	4.67	4.06	4.61	5.13	2.91	0.74	.297	.330	2.7
Randy Wolf	214.1	3.23	3.96	4.27	6.72	2.44	1.01	.227	.257	3

Obviously Omar should not have signed Perez to that contract, we all know that. I tend to think he'll bounce back next year but that's mostly just blind faith more than anything. But his AVG against was way way up and I have a hard time believing his stuff left him that quickly.
However, the prevailing idea that Lowe was a slam dunk last winter was pretty inaccurate as well. He took a big step back and at age 36 that is definitely not a good sign. Even his bread & butter GB/FB was a career worst 2.18 and w/ his K/9 declining too he really needs those gb's to succeed. One positive, his BABIP of .330 was way too high and should regress in 2010 but will it be enough to bring him back from mediocrity?
The clear winner here was Randy Wolf especially when you compare his 1yr/$5M contract w/ the monstrosities Perez & Lowe got. But while he had a very good year it's pretty clear that he got pretty lucky to do so as his results don't match his peripherals (his tRA is a full run higher than his actual ERA). In addition a very low BABIP and nearly a career high LOB% helped him keep his final numbers artifically low. I think the time to acquire Wolf has passed as he'll be looking for a bigger contract and will almost definitely regress a lot.

Winner:

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB/K	UZR	SB	BABIP	WAR
Luis Castillo	580	0.302	0.387	0.346	1	1.19	-11.3	20/26	0.342	1.5
Orlando Hudson	631	0.283	0.357	0.417	9	0.63	-3.7	8/9	0.332	2.9

This was an interesting race all year but ultimately Castillo's lack of range in the field killed him. However, in a good lineup Castillo's '09 would have been quite valuable in terms of his OBP; unfortunately ours wasn't. And while his BABIP looks high, it's really not considering his .333 career mark. There's no reason he can't continue to put up seasons like this offensively as his ratios were all stable but his diminishing D is a serious concern.
Hudson had an odd year in that he was benched by Sept. but it really was a good season. And like Wolf, when you take into consideration his contract (1yr/$3.4M) it becomes very good. Like Castillo, Hudson sports a high career BABIP so his '09 mark isn't far out of line and he maintained many of his key peripherals so he should be fine going forward; though his once vaunted defense is now definitely fading. Also like Wolf, he'll likely expect a bigger payday this winter making him less attractive despite his apparent dream to play in Queens.

Winner:

Player	G	Sv	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	AVG	09 $	WAR
Francisco Rodriguez	70	35/42	3.71	4.01	9.66	5.03	0.93	.210	8.5M	0.3
Brian Fuentes	65	48/55	3.93	4.42	7.53	3.93	0.98	.255	8.5M	0.4
Trevor Hoffman	55	37/41	1.83	2.63	8	2.33	0.33	.187	8M	1.5
Kerry Wood	58	20/26	4.25	4.15	10.31	4.58	0.97	.236	10M	0.4
Huston Street	64	35/37	3.06	2.93	10.22	1.90	0.68	.213	4.5M	1.5

So apparently it wasn't the great year for FA closers we all thought it was. K-Rod for one had his worst year to date; most of his key peripherals continued to decline especially the ever-important K/BB. He still strikes out enough guys to succeed and he really isn't any easier to hit, but he's just putting WAY too many men on base via the walk. That and his HR/9 jumped which will probably normalize a bit next season. For what it's worth, IMO his decreased/sporadic usage in the 2nd half had an adverse effect on him (post-ASB 6.75 era & drastic increase in BB/9). Ironically, the much ballyhooed declining FB velo. actually climbed by almost a full MPH in '09, so maybe he was telling the truth.
Fuentes was nearly about as bad and what's worse, he posted a 5.02 ERA in the playoffs. Fuentes saw some even more serious erosion of his peripherals and w/ a .255 AVG became very hittable. And no, it wasn't the BABIP (.301), he just sucked. I'd be even more worried about him going forward.
To be fair Hoffman was never seriously linked to the Mets but he was the clear winner in this bunch. Incredibly, he saw huge increases as compared w/ his career #'s and had one of his best seasons at age 42. He suddenly became ultra-difficult to hit and while some of it was definitely luck (.240 BABIP), he looks quite solid going forward.
Wood was another popular option around these parts and he was another disaster. He is actually a very similar pitcher to K-Rod in that while he's observing continued declines across the board, he can still strike guys out, he walks WAY too many and gave up a ton of HRs, though his stuff is a bit more hittable than Frankie's. And believe it or not, he made even more $ in 2009.
Street is the one non-FA closer up here so it's not quite fair to list his salary as he would have also cost players but he was definitely available and linked to the Mets. Instead we traded for Putz. But Street had a tremendous season by simply striking out a ton of guys, allowing very few walks and limiting hits. Simple enough, right? However, Street did post a 9.00 ERA in the playoffs.

So we can conclude that Omar did pretty terribly last offseason. He lost out in each of the 3 major positional "upgrades". He also somehow managed to group together most of the lowest WARs from these lists while also collecting some of the highest salaries. This should come as no surprise to anybody here but Omar is not very good at maximizing his dollars. Exhibit A: Omar's 2008 offseason group was worth a total of $4.9M in 2009 (in terms of their WAR's) yet received $26.5M from Omar. Ouch. But hey, maybe this offseason will be better.

BA Mets Top 10

robcast23 — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:52:55 -0000

BA Mets Top 10

Very surprised about #10.

MLB Network to broadcast 2 AFL games

robcast23 — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:38:17 -0000

MLB Network to broadcast 2 AFL games

The Rising Stars game (Nov. 7) and the Championship game (Nov. 21) and they'll stream them online for free as well.

Hopefully Surprise makes the championship/some combo of Ike, Tejada, Moviel & Mejia make the all-star game.

Sunday Morning Funnies

robcast23 — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 16:10:51 -0000

Sunday Morning Funnies

The robcast Mets Offseason Plan

robcast23 — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 02:44:11 -0000

Seems like just about everybody's got one so why not throw in my two cents. For the record I'm going to try to be as realistic as possible so Francoeur stays and I won't sign Holliday, Lackey & Pineiro then trade for Halladay, Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.

So the way I see it, we've got 3 primary questions to answer, first base, left field and starting pitcher. The rest is secondary.

#1 First Base: Adrian Gonzalez

For once, the media-driven, oversimplified solution is right. We simply CANNOT get a .266/.313/.427 line from our first baseman (MLB league average was .277/.362/.483). And I'm one who thinks Murphy will improve but it's just too much of a risk to take w/ our "stars" all getting older/closer to free agency. Nick Johnson is too injury prone, LaRoche has a decent bat but his consistently bad D kills his value, ditto Dunn and Prince isn't available. Forget the place-holding righty platoon partners. Lyle Overbay is OK but that trade seems unlikely, if not made up. So trade for Adrian Gonzalez. He's the perfect blend of power and defense that we need, he's the rare cheap superstar player, he is available and we'd have him through 2011. I know we're all suddenly in love w/ Ike but this way we can be conservative and give him 2010 in Buffalo and transition him in during 2011; plus, we can always stick him in the OF if he forces his way up.

So the package to get Gonzo you ask? (Using the Lee, VMart & Peavy deals as models) I'd go w/ Wilmer, Tejada, Parnell & the hard-throwing lefty Robert Carson. You've got the very young, very high upside (and IMO slightly overrated) prospect, the very impressive upper level prospect and a very strong pitching prospect and then the rookie who can hit 100mph (who I also feel is overvalued). That feels like enough but the package they discussed from the Sox this July included some big names so if they forced me I'd include Kyle Allen or even Jeurys Familia in place of Carson.

Plan B - If you can't make the deal, leave Murphy at first, spelling him w/ Chris Carter (who is currently raking in the VWL) or a cheap lefty killer like Ryan Garko and make up the offense elsewhere (aka Holliday). If you lose out on Holliday, bring in a more legit. platoon partner for Murphy (i.e. Jorge Cantu, Mark DeRosa, Dan Uggla) and a legit LF option.

#2 Left Field: Angel Pagan

This move is completely contingent on acquiring Gonzalez. Once you do that, you're not desperate for the offense and you can put the best defensive option in left, which I feel is important in Citi (Holliday is good but his D while underrated is consistently declining according to UZR and I personally just don't see him aging well in terms of mobility). People also say that "Holliday only costs money" but thats a bit oversimplified as the amount of money he will cost (a rumored 8yr/$150M+ deal) will drastically limit our roster flexibility deep into the next decade, meaning no more bigtime FA's until either Beltran, Reyes or Wright is gone.

I also feel that Angel Pagan flashed some untapped offensive potential this season that he couldn't before for lack of PT (see: 2.8 WAR in only 376 PA's); w/ 500+ ab's I see him profiling similar to Franklin Gutierrez (though admittedly less valuable in LF than CF). Back Pagan up w/ a very capable 4th OF in case of injury or extended slumps.

Plan B - Assuming we don't get Gonzalez, sign Matt Holliday; I hate to give in to Boras and give the big contract but we'd have no choice. If we lose a bidding war for him, try to bring back the always underrated Mike Cameron short-term, as a nice mix of power and defense; both scenarios move Pagan into the 4th OF role. The recently dropped Jermaine Dye might seem like an OK source of power if he'll sign for short-term but his loathsome OF defense (4 straight -20 UZR seasons!) negates nearly all of his offensive value. IMO Jason Bay in Citi LF instead of Fenway LF becomes similar except he wants 5+ yrs.

#3 Starting Pitcher: Rich Harden

I don't like any of the top tier options. Lackey wants 5 year and $100M+ and w/ declining performance, elbow issues and his age (31), I don't even consider it. Pineiro would be decent for a couple years but I see someone desperate (probably MIL) going too far to sign him. And Chapman is WAY too risky. Like I've mentioned here before, Harden is obviously a big injury risk but basically he gives you a 50/50 shot at a ~4 WAR season and coming off a (pretty unlucky) down year, I'd say on a 1yr deal (roughly the same $7M salary he made in '09, as he did have a down year) I'd take that risk.

Because of that risk (or the risk of any of the 2nd tier SP options), IMO you've got to back up whomever you bring in w/ a Redding-esque contingency who you can stash in AAA or on the DL. Erik Bedard would serve this role perfectly, bolstering the rotation w/ a high caliber SP when he gets back on the mound around mid-season. I like Justin Duchscherer but I doubt he signs w/o a guaranteed spot in the rotation. A much less high profile name is Rodrigo Lopez who showed he may have something left this year as a #4-5 for the Phils (3.62 ERA in 5 starts) and would likely accept a role in Buff. until a spot opens up.

Plan B - To me, Sheets and Harden are interchangeable; I'd only try Harden first because Sheets is almost a guarantee to get hurt at some point, that's why you bring in that contingency guy. I like Harang, but CIN probably won't take any of his $12.5M salary for 2010 (and possibly 2011). If that's true, I'd give a package of Evans and Michael Antonini to get him, no more. $12.5M for that big of a risk is just too much to give anything significant for. Randy Wolf wouldn't be horrible but long as he wants 3 years I pass. Inquire about a Nolasco trade but w/ a new stadium on the way that sounds unlikely. Here's a crazier trade idea: See if the Braves are interested in a Lowe-Castillo swap. After a poor '09 and $45M left on his deal, Lowe is definitely available and ATL lacks an everyday 2B as well as a top-of-the-order OBP guy. Then go out and sign Placido Polanco or Orlando Hudson. But a part of me feels like we might just be better off letting Castillo's contract expire instead of adding on another year and an additional $33M of payroll obligations attached to yet another risky asset.

________________________________________________________________________________________

The next stage is to fill the secondary holes: Catcher, 4th OF, backup MI & setup man

Catcher: Pudge

Despite the fact that Omar has always liked him, he can be had for a cheap, $1-2M deal ($1.5M in '09) while providing still solid defense and some pop from the bottom of the order. He batted .250 w/ 10 bombs in '09 and I'd hope for somewhat similar production in 2010 while giving Omir 2-3 days a week. Disclaimer: Not expecting a .300+ OBP from that duo, just give me 7-9 hrs and good D. I'd also hope he could play mentor whenever Thole comes up, which I assume happens around mid-season after Omir turns back into a pumpkin.

Plan B - Gregg Zaun is option 1A and I might even favor him to Pudge based on the contracts; either way he was just let go by TB and fits the cheap, decent hitting, decent fielding (decent OBP) place-holder role until Thole takes the job. He's even open to the 'mentor to promising young catcher' role. Rod Barajas would be allright as a similar player to Ramon Castro (good pop, rarely walks, often day-to-day) w/ a bit better glove; add him to the BABIP Bargain Bin (.234). I'd also talk to ARZ who is looking to deal the decent Chris Snyder but the words 'back surgery' and 'catcher' don't mix well so who knows what he'd give you; probably too risky for someone owed $12M over the next 2 years unless they'd pick a lot up. No way will I give declining Bengie Molina the multi-year deal (AND a raise from $6M no less) that he reportedly wants, even if he can still hit for power.

4th Outfielder: Matt Murton

We all know his deal: Murton has proved that he can play at a pretty decent level in the majors (career .345 wOBA) yet can't get a fair shot. Fangraphs compares him to Nelson Cruz before he blew up this year. Murton hits for average, his K/BB is always good, decent pop, he steals bases and he's a good fielder; the guy was even a first round pick out of a college baseball powerhouse, not that long back ('03). Seriously, what the hell is going on here, is he being black-balled? He would fit really well as a 4th OF/platoon partner for Pagan (Murton crushes lefties, Pagan righties) and could even steal the starting job. Nobody claimed him when COL put him on waivers so he's still a Rockie but I can't imagine it'd cost much to get him. If we had to trade, send them Eddie Kunz and be done w/ it.

When these 2 are together, great things happen...wait, that's not Obama. Well just trust me, they'd be good.

Plan B - Coco Crisp is another low BABIP victim (.247 in '09) who likely could be had for cheap (especially if/when KC drops his option); similar all-around solid game as Murton but w/ less offense and more defense. Off a down year I'd see if we could nab Fred Lewis for cheap.

Backup Middle Infielder: Adam Everett

Made $1M in '09, I'd offer the same and save the other million you'd spend on Cora. Now I admit I'm kind of a sucker for the veteran leadership stuff w/ Cora but money talks. Plus, Everett is a FAR better defender which MUST be a priority after what we witnessed on the infield in 2009.

Plan B - They'll probably bring back Cora which wouldn't be the end of the world but if they must have a veteran, I'd personally go for the cheaper/better version of Alex Cora, Omar Vizquel (made $1M in '09).

Setup/8th inning RP: JJ Putz

I know we dropped the option, now try to bring him back for cheap and hope he's healthy, especially because in this plan you've already traded Parnell so there aren't many other in-house options; even w/ Parnell we probably need him. I'm thinking the $2-3M neighborhood. I don't imagine he sees many better financial offers off the injury/ineffectiveness but in case he gets the tempting option to close from somebody else, throw him a performance-based option for 2011 to sweeten the deal. He doesn't need to be '07 Putz but just something moderately resembling that would be fine.

Plan B - If Putz decides to move on, that's fine because Kiko Calero is an equal if not better option. As Fangraphs proclaimed coming off his 1.4 WAR 2009, Kiko's Back but like Putz health is an issue w/ him. If we can get him for a similar 1yr/$.5M deal as the Marlins did, I'd take him as my first option; he's risky but not any more so than Putz. I also like the idea of Kelvim Escobar if he can be had for less than $3M on a 1yr deal. I said it last year and I'll say it again (and now I bet more people will believe me), Chan Ho Park STRICTLY as a reliever works. For the record, I am against guaranteeing multiple years to ANY non-elite relievers.

Odds & Ends

Murphy is a super-sub, where he'd cover the corner IF spots, maybe cover the OF in a pinch and be the primary pinch hitter, basically taking Tatis' role where he'd see about 300 ab's; As an aside, I feel that there is no offseason scenario where both Pagan and Murphy can be in the lineup everyday, IMO it's one or the other
Jeremy Reed is cut; The last spot on the bench goes to a better defensive OF, basically SIGN ENDY; unless he's still not healthy in which case Dewayne Wise would work fine or Laynce Nix, who is a surprisingly good fielder w/ very good power
Hold onto Pat Misch and try to replicate the Darren Oliver, 2nd lefty specialist/longman role; However, he's on a short leash w/ Bostick waiting in Buff; I'd be tempted to bring back Oliver himself
The bullpen is already nearly filled out (I give both Green & Stokes another chance being a trusting/foolish person) but the last spot is saved for a Rule 5 guy because it's stupid not to take advantage of this opportunity; an early favorite of mine is former Phillies top prospect and TJ fiend Scott Mathieson, who is currently mowing people down in the AFL and is no longer on their 40 man
Fernando, Niese, Nieve, Gee, Stoner, Evans, Chris Carter & Thole begin in AAA, awaiting the call (as long as they're performing, obviously); Wilson Valdez is my first call if we need a MI, Anderson Hernandez can rot at Coca-Cola Field forever
That 5th spot in the rotation is NOT set in stone, it's up for whoever claims it during ST; If Ollie struggles, I don't hesitate to start him in AAA and give it to Niese or whoever earns it in March
Since you can't bat Pagan 2nd w/ Castillo there and his solid OBP is wasted in the 7-8 holes, I pull a LaRussa and bat him 9th; This way you capitalize on the typically unutilized above-average power that Reyes posesses as a leadoff man. In a way you've basically got 2 leadoff hitters

________________________________________________________________________________________

The Final Product: (click to enlarge)

Overall, I'm projecting this roster's cumulative salary (w/ all of the acquisitions as well as contractual increases, likely arbitration raises, etc) at just about $139M compared to the $149M that we had in '09. Obviously that figure changes if we shift from the Gonzalez/Plan A scenario to the Holliday/Plan B scenario. But either way I feel this team (if healthy of course) is a strong contender for a playoff spot.

But basically, I'm consciously trying not to break the bank here because:

I'm tired of this team wasting resources
After 2010 we will not be losing a lot of payroll like we did this offseason (base payroll may actually go up based on arbitration and raises)
Next winter will be a big one for legitimately great top-tier FA pitching (Halladay, Lee, Beckett, Webb & Vazquez) and I want to see the Mets very active in that market. Wouldn't it suck if we couldn't be because John Lackey was sitting on our DL w/ an elbow injury (which he's suffered both in '08 and '09) collecting $17M/yr?

So yeah, that's what I would do. Feel free to criticize.

Sunday Morning Funnies

robcast23 — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 17:50:19 -0000

Sunday Morning Funnies