SB Nation User Blog: robcast23

Devil's Advocate: Final Edition

robcast23 — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 16:30:46 -0000

For those of you who haven't seen, I've been posting a running comparison of many of the players that the Mets were rumored to be interested in last winter vs. the players that we actually ended up with. (See part I here, part II here and part III here) This will be the final and decisive comparison to decide once and for all what Omar truly should have done last offseason.

Winner:

Player	IP	ERA	FIP	tRA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	AVG	BABIP	WAR
Oliver Perez	66.0	6.82	6.40	6.96	8.45	7.91	1.64	.270	.315	-0.8
Derek Lowe	194.2	4.67	4.06	4.61	5.13	2.91	0.74	.297	.330	2.7
Randy Wolf	214.1	3.23	3.96	4.27	6.72	2.44	1.01	.227	.257	3

Obviously Omar should not have signed Perez to that contract, we all know that. I tend to think he'll bounce back next year but that's mostly just blind faith more than anything. But his AVG against was way way up and I have a hard time believing his stuff left him that quickly.
However, the prevailing idea that Lowe was a slam dunk last winter was pretty inaccurate as well. He took a big step back and at age 36 that is definitely not a good sign. Even his bread & butter GB/FB was a career worst 2.18 and w/ his K/9 declining too he really needs those gb's to succeed. One positive, his BABIP of .330 was way too high and should regress in 2010 but will it be enough to bring him back from mediocrity?
The clear winner here was Randy Wolf especially when you compare his 1yr/$5M contract w/ the monstrosities Perez & Lowe got. But while he had a very good year it's pretty clear that he got pretty lucky to do so as his results don't match his peripherals (his tRA is a full run higher than his actual ERA). In addition a very low BABIP and nearly a career high LOB% helped him keep his final numbers artifically low. I think the time to acquire Wolf has passed as he'll be looking for a bigger contract and will almost definitely regress a lot.

Winner:

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB/K	UZR	SB	BABIP	WAR
Luis Castillo	580	0.302	0.387	0.346	1	1.19	-11.3	20/26	0.342	1.5
Orlando Hudson	631	0.283	0.357	0.417	9	0.63	-3.7	8/9	0.332	2.9

This was an interesting race all year but ultimately Castillo's lack of range in the field killed him. However, in a good lineup Castillo's '09 would have been quite valuable in terms of his OBP; unfortunately ours wasn't. And while his BABIP looks high, it's really not considering his .333 career mark. There's no reason he can't continue to put up seasons like this offensively as his ratios were all stable but his diminishing D is a serious concern.
Hudson had an odd year in that he was benched by Sept. but it really was a good season. And like Wolf, when you take into consideration his contract (1yr/$3.4M) it becomes very good. Like Castillo, Hudson sports a high career BABIP so his '09 mark isn't far out of line and he maintained many of his key peripherals so he should be fine going forward; though his once vaunted defense is now definitely fading. Also like Wolf, he'll likely expect a bigger payday this winter making him less attractive despite his apparent dream to play in Queens.

Winner:

Player	G	Sv	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	AVG	09 $	WAR
Francisco Rodriguez	70	35/42	3.71	4.01	9.66	5.03	0.93	.210	8.5M	0.3
Brian Fuentes	65	48/55	3.93	4.42	7.53	3.93	0.98	.255	8.5M	0.4
Trevor Hoffman	55	37/41	1.83	2.63	8	2.33	0.33	.187	8M	1.5
Kerry Wood	58	20/26	4.25	4.15	10.31	4.58	0.97	.236	10M	0.4
Huston Street	64	35/37	3.06	2.93	10.22	1.90	0.68	.213	4.5M	1.5

So apparently it wasn't the great year for FA closers we all thought it was. K-Rod for one had his worst year to date; most of his key peripherals continued to decline especially the ever-important K/BB. He still strikes out enough guys to succeed and he really isn't any easier to hit, but he's just putting WAY too many men on base via the walk. That and his HR/9 jumped which will probably normalize a bit next season. For what it's worth, IMO his decreased/sporadic usage in the 2nd half had an adverse effect on him (post-ASB 6.75 era & drastic increase in BB/9). Ironically, the much ballyhooed declining FB velo. actually climbed by almost a full MPH in '09, so maybe he was telling the truth.
Fuentes was nearly about as bad and what's worse, he posted a 5.02 ERA in the playoffs. Fuentes saw some even more serious erosion of his peripherals and w/ a .255 AVG became very hittable. And no, it wasn't the BABIP (.301), he just sucked. I'd be even more worried about him going forward.
To be fair Hoffman was never seriously linked to the Mets but he was the clear winner in this bunch. Incredibly, he saw huge increases as compared w/ his career #'s and had one of his best seasons at age 42. He suddenly became ultra-difficult to hit and while some of it was definitely luck (.240 BABIP), he looks quite solid going forward.
Wood was another popular option around these parts and he was another disaster. He is actually a very similar pitcher to K-Rod in that while he's observing continued declines across the board, he can still strike guys out, he walks WAY too many and gave up a ton of HRs, though his stuff is a bit more hittable than Frankie's. And believe it or not, he made even more $ in 2009.
Street is the one non-FA closer up here so it's not quite fair to list his salary as he would have also cost players but he was definitely available and linked to the Mets. Instead we traded for Putz. But Street had a tremendous season by simply striking out a ton of guys, allowing very few walks and limiting hits. Simple enough, right? However, Street did post a 9.00 ERA in the playoffs.

So we can conclude that Omar did pretty terribly last offseason. He lost out in each of the 3 major positional "upgrades". He also somehow managed to group together most of the lowest WARs from these lists while also collecting some of the highest salaries. This should come as no surprise to anybody here but Omar is not very good at maximizing his dollars. Exhibit A: Omar's 2008 offseason group was worth a total of $4.9M in 2009 (in terms of their WAR's) yet received $26.5M from Omar. Ouch. But hey, maybe this offseason will be better.

BA Mets Top 10

robcast23 — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:52:55 -0000

BA Mets Top 10

Very surprised about #10.

MLB Network to broadcast 2 AFL games

robcast23 — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:38:17 -0000

MLB Network to broadcast 2 AFL games

The Rising Stars game (Nov. 7) and the Championship game (Nov. 21) and they'll stream them online for free as well.

Hopefully Surprise makes the championship/some combo of Ike, Tejada, Moviel & Mejia make the all-star game.

Sunday Morning Funnies

robcast23 — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 16:10:51 -0000

Sunday Morning Funnies

The robcast Mets Offseason Plan

robcast23 — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 02:44:11 -0000

Seems like just about everybody's got one so why not throw in my two cents. For the record I'm going to try to be as realistic as possible so Francoeur stays and I won't sign Holliday, Lackey & Pineiro then trade for Halladay, Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.

So the way I see it, we've got 3 primary questions to answer, first base, left field and starting pitcher. The rest is secondary.

#1 First Base: Adrian Gonzalez

For once, the media-driven, oversimplified solution is right. We simply CANNOT get a .266/.313/.427 line from our first baseman (MLB league average was .277/.362/.483). And I'm one who thinks Murphy will improve but it's just too much of a risk to take w/ our "stars" all getting older/closer to free agency. Nick Johnson is too injury prone, LaRoche has a decent bat but his consistently bad D kills his value, ditto Dunn and Prince isn't available. Forget the place-holding righty platoon partners. Get the best guy out there; Gonzalez is the perfect mix of power and defense that we need, he's the rare cheap superstar player, he is available and we'd have him through 2011. I know we're all suddenly in love w/ Ike but this way we can be conservative and give him 2010 in Buffalo and transition him in during 2011, plus we can always stick him in the OF if he forces his way up.

So the package to get Gonzo you ask? I'd go w/ Wilmer, Tejada, Parnell & the hard-throwing lefty Robert Carson. You've got the very young, very high upside (and IMO slightly overrated) prospect, the very impressive upper level prospect and a very strong pitching prospect and then the rookie who can hit 100mph (who I also feel is overvalued). That feels like enough but the package they turned down from the Sox this July was pretty huge so if they forced me I'd include Kyle Allen or even Jeurys Familia in place of Carson.

Plan B - If you can't make the deal, leave Murphy at first, spelling him w/ Chris Carter 1-2 days a week and make up the offense elsewhere (aka Holliday). If you can't get Holliday, go get a legit. platoon partner for Murphy (i.e. Jorge Cantu, Mark DeRosa, Dan Uggla)

#2 Left Field: Angel Pagan

This move is completely contingent on acquiring Gonzalez. Once you do that, you're not desperate for the offense and you can put the best defensive option in left, which I feel is important in Citi (Holliday is good but his D while underrated is consistently declining according to UZR and I personally just don't see him aging well in terms of mobility) . Back Pagan up w/ a very capable 4th OF in case of injury or extended slumps.

Plan B - Assuming we don't get Gonzalez, sign Matt Holliday; I hate to give in to Boras and give the big contract but we'd have no choice. If we lose a bidding war for him, try to bring back the always underrated Mike Cameron short-term, as a nice mix of power and defense. I don't like Jason Bay at all. All these scenarios move Pagan into the 4th OF role.

#3 Starting Pitcher: Rich Harden

I don't like any of the top tier options. My top pick was Webb but apparently ARZ will pick up that option. Lackey wants 5 years and w/ elbow issues and his age, I don't even consider it. Pineiro would be decent for 2, maybe 3 years but I see someone desperate (probably MIL) topping that to sign him & Chapman is WAY too risky. Like I've mentioned here before, Harden is obviously a big injury risk but basically he gives you a 50/50 shot at a ~4 WAR season and coming off a (pretty unlucky) down year, I'd say on a 1yr deal (roughly the same $7M salary he made in '09) I'd take that risk.

Because of that risk (or the risk of any of the 2nd tier SP options), IMO you've got to back up whomever you bring in w/ a Redding-esque contingency who you can stash in AAA or on the DL. Erik Bedard would serve this role perfectly, to bolster the rotation w/ a high caliber SP when he gets back on the mound around mid-season. I like Justin Duchscherer but I doubt he signs w/o a guaranteed spot in the rotation. A much less high profile backup option is Rodrigo Lopez who proved he may have something left this year as a #4-5 and would probably accept a job in Buff.

Plan B - I like Harang, but CIN probably won't take any of his $12.5M salary for 2010 (and possibly 2011). If that's true, I'd give a package of Evans and Michael Antonini to get him, no more. Sheets would be similar to Harden in that he'll probably get hurt but when he pitches he'll be great, and that's why you bring in a contingency guy. Randy Wolf wouldn't be horrible but long as he wants 3 years I pass. Inquire about a Nolasco trade but w/ a new stadium on the way that sounds unlikely. Here's a crazier trade idea: See if the Braves are interested in a Lowe-Castillo swap. After a poor '09 and $45M left on his deal, Lowe is definitely available and ATL lacks an everyday 2B as well as a top-of-the-order OBP guy. Then go out and sign Orlando Hudson. But a part of me feels like we might just be better off letting Castilo's contract expire instead of adding on another year and an additional $33M of payroll obligations attached to yet another risky asset. It's too much of an Isiah move.

________________________________________________________________________________________

The next stage is to fill the secondary holes: Catcher, 4th OF, backup MI & setup man

Catcher: Pudge

Despite the fact that Omar has always liked him, he can be had for a cheap, $1-2M deal ($1.5M in '09) while providing still solid defense and some pop from the bottom of the order. He batted .250 w/ 10 bombs in '09 and I'd hope for somewhat similar production in 2010 while giving Omir 2-3 days a week. Disclaimer: Not expecting a .300+ OBP from that duo, just give me 7-9 hrs and good D. I'd also hope he could play mentor whenever Thole makes it up, which I assume happens around mid-season after Omir turns back into a pumpkin.

Plan B - Dioner Navarro, if he actually does get non-tendered by TB this December. Fitting into Meddler's BABIP Bargain Bin, I'd look for a bounceback accompanied by a pay cut from his $2.1M salary. A .233 BABIP brought Navarro’s AVG from .295 (.349 OBP) in '08 to .218 (.261 OBP) in '09. Barajas would be serviceable as a similar player to Ramon Castro (good pop, rarely walks, often day-to-day) w/ a bit better glove; add him to the BABIP Bargain Bin (.234). I'd also talk to ARZ who is looking to deal the decent Chris Snyder but the words 'back surgery' and 'catcher' don't mix well so who knows what he'd give you; probably too risky for someone owed $12M over the next 2 years unless they'd pick a lot up. No way will I give declining Bengie Molina a multi-yr deal, even if he can still hit for power.

4th Outfielder: Matt Murton

We all know his deal: Murton has proved that he can play at a pretty decent level in the majors (career .345 wOBA) yet can't get a fair shot. Fangraphs compares him to Nelson Cruz before he blew up this year. Murton hits for average, his K/BB is always good, decent pop, he steals bases and he's a good fielder; the guy was even a first round pick out of a college baseball powerhouse, not that long back ('03). Seriously, what the hell is going on here, is he being black-balled? He would fit really well as a 4th OF/platoon partner for Pagan (Murton crushes lefties, Pagan righties) and could even steal the starting job. Nobody claimed him when COL put him on waivers so he's still a Rockie but I can't imagine it'd cost much to get him. If we had to trade, send them Eddie Kunz and be done w/ it.

When these 2 are together, great things happen...wait, that's not Obama. Well just trust me, they'd be good.

Plan B - Coco Crisp is another low BABIP victim (.247 in '09) who likely could be had for cheap (especially if/when KC drops his option); similar all-around solid game as Murton but w/ less offense and more defense. Off a down year I'd see if we could nab Fred Lewis for cheap.

Backup Middle Infielder: Adam Everett

Made $1M in '09, I'd offer the same and save the other million you'd spend on Cora. Now I admit I'm kind of a sucker for the veteran leadership stuff w/ Cora but money talks. Plus, Everett is a FAR better defender which MUST be a priority after what we witnessed on the infield in 2009.

Plan B - They'll probably bring back Cora which wouldn't be the end of the world but if they must have a veteran, I'd personally go for the cheaper/better version of Alex Cora, Omar Vizquel (made $1M in '09).

Setup/8th inning RP: JJ Putz

No, you don't pick up that $9.15M option. But once you drop it, try to bring him back for cheaper and hope he's healthy, especially because in this plan you've already traded Parnell so there aren't many other in-house options; even w/ Parnell we probably need him. I'm thinking the $2-3M neighborhood. I don't imagine he sees many better financial offers off the injury but in case he gets the tempting option to close from somebody else, throw him a performance-based option for 2011 to sweeten the deal. He doesn't need to be '07 Putz but just something moderately resembling that would be fine.

Plan B - Another decent option is Kiko Calero. As Fangraphs proclaimed coming off his 1.4 WAR 2009, Kiko's back but health is always an issue w/ him. If we can get him for a similar 1yr/$.5M deal as the Marlins did, I'd take him as my first option; he's risky but not any moreso than Putz. I also like the idea of Kelvim Escobar if he can be had for less than $3M on a 1yr deal. I said it last year and I'll say it again (and now I bet more people will believe me), Chan Ho Park STRICTLY as a reliever works.

Odds & Ends

Murphy is a super-sub, where he'd cover the corner IF spots, maybe cover the OF in a pinch and be the primary pinch hitter, basically taking Tatis' role where he'd see about 300 ab's; As an aside, I feel that there is no offseason scenario where both Pagan and Murphy can be in the lineup everyday, IMO it's one or the other
Jeremy Reed is cut; The last spot on the bench goes to a better defensive OF, basically sign Endy unless he's still not healthy in which case Dewayne Wise would work or Laynce Nix, who is a surprisingly good fielder w/ very good power
Hold onto Pat Misch and try to replicate the Darren Oliver, 2nd lefty specialist/longman role; However, he's on a short leash w/ Bostick waiting in Buff; I'd be tempted to bring back Oliver himself
The bullpen is already nearly filled out but the last spot is saved for a Rule 5 guy because it's stupid not to take advantage of this opportunity; an early favorite of mine is former Phillies top prospect Scott Mathieson, who is dominating the AFL and is no longer on their 40 man
Fernando, Niese, Nieve, Gee, Evans, Chris Carter & Thole begin in AAA, awaiting the call (as long as they're performing, obviously); Wilson Valdez is my first call if we need a MI, Anderson Hernandez can rot at Coca-Cola Field forever
Since you can't bat Pagan 2nd w/ Castillo there and his solid OBP is wasted in the 7-8 holes, I pull a LaRussa and bat him 9th; This way you capitalize on the typically unutilized above-average power that Reyes posesses as a leadoff man. In a way you've basically got 2 leadoff hitters

________________________________________________________________________________________

The Final Product: (click to enlarge)

Overall, I'm projecting this roster's cumulative salary (w/ all of the acquisitions as well as contractual increases, likely arbitration raises, etc) at just about $139M compared to the $149M that we had in '09. Obviously that figure changes if we shift from the Gonzalez/Plan A scenario to the Holliday/Plan B scenario. But either way I feel this team (if healthy of course) is a strong contender for a playoff spot.

But basically, I'm consciously trying not to break the bank here because:

I'm tired of this team wasting resources
After 2010 we will not be losing a lot of payroll like we did this offseason (it may actually go up based on arbitration)
Next winter will be a big one for legitimately great top-tier FA pitching (Halladay, Lee, Beckett, Webb & Vazquez) and I want to see the Mets very active in that market. Wouldn't it suck if we couldn't be because John Lackey was sitting on our DL w/ an elbow injury (which he's suffered both in '08 and '09) collecting $17M/yr?

So yeah, that's what I would do. Feel free to criticize.

Sunday Morning Funnies

robcast23 — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 17:50:19 -0000

Sunday Morning Funnies

Diamonds In The Rough

robcast23 — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 16:21:51 -0000

(note: bumped from FanPosts)

In the same vein as yesterday's Minor League free agents, these are the John Maine-esque, under the radar steals of typically cheap, young pitchers that for whatever reason become available. Whether it's a post-hype prospect (like Maine), a 4-5 starter that's out of options but won't make the 40-man or just a player that's being overlooked, usually this is someone who has fallen out of favor w/ an organization (a la Heath Bell) and often is available due to a logjam of pitching.

Similar to the Rule 5 Draft, transactions that involve such little input and can potentially derive such a great deal of output are definitely worth exploring and if it doesn't work, who cares? No, they won't make or break the season and you'll rarely uncover a top-of-the-rotation guy, but acquiring even a #5 for cheap has it's value. But be warned, each of these guys has their warts, that's what makes them "in the rough"/available.

More recent examples:

Fernando Nieve off waivers this season
Jason Hammel was a good one by the Rockies during ST
Tom Gorzelanny by the Cubs at the deadline
Gavin Floyd to the Sox as a throw-in for Freddy Garcia a couple years back

Andy Sonnanstine (TB) - After a losing his rotation spot twice this season, Sonnanstine has been passed on the totem pole by TB prospects Wade Davis and soon Jeremy Hellickson leaving little room in the TB rotation. And while he had a poor 2009, he did post a 3.91 FIP in 32 starts in the majors last season (4.38 ERA) and has been plagued by about a .340 BABIP in '09.

Manny Parra (MIL) - Ranked by BA as the Brewers #2 prospect back in '07, Parra has been somewhat of a disappointment since joining the MIL rotation. In '08 he posted an OK 4.38 ERA (4.18 FIP) but took a step backwards in '09 (6.36 ERA) and command has been an issue since his debut. However, look past the results and you'll find a pitcher w/ top notch stuff who dominated the minors (AND limited walks) and has posted BABIP's of .337 and .365 the last 2 years respectively. However, due to an organizational dearth of pitching the Brewers probably aren't ready to let him go.

Casey Janssen (TOR) - This 4th round draftee out of UCLA seems to have fallen into that long relief/spot start role that often signifies he's on the back burner as a long-term starting option. Yet Janssen possesses 4 major league average pitches and can reach 90-91mph w/ his sinker and posted a 2.88 career minor league ERA. But w/ guys like Romero, Richmond, Cecil, Litsch, Marcum, Rzepczynski & Mcgowan ahead of him in the pecking order, chances are he won't get his "shot" w/ TOR.

David Purcey (TOR) - Like Janssen, Purcey (the 16th overall pick in the '04 draft) is dropping on the organizational totem pole. Purcey never quite mastered the minors and has had trouble in the majors as well mostly due to serious command problems. However, as a lefty who can hit the mid-90's w/ a wipeout slider scouts have always dreamed about his potential and he did post a 2.69 ERA in 19 starts in AAA last year. This would be a nearly complete projection pickup, like Oliver Perez in '06.

Glen Perkins (MIN) - Taken 6 picks after Purcey in the 2004 first round, Perkins had good success in the minors that just hasn't translated to the majors yet due to a lack of stuff. His FB works in the high 80's but like most Twins pitchers he has good control. He posted a 4.66 FIP in 17 starts in '09 and w/ a patient team can definitely settle into the back of a rotation. Unfortunately for him, the Twins have a young group in Slowey, Baker, Blackburn, Duensing, Swarzak & Manship that makes him expendable.

Francisco Liriano (MIN) - We all know about this kid, who once looked destined for stardom. But after the arm surgery he just hasn't been nearly as dominant w/ his fastball declining, his once electric slider becoming very inconsistent and increased problems w/ walks. After this season's 5.80 ERA and his upcoming entrance into arb. years, look for the Twins to bank on Liriano's big name in a trade. Of course for a buy-low candidate the potential is high but it's fading away fast; no thanks.

Sean Marshall (CHI) - This former BA Top 10 Cubs prospect has settled into the swingman role for Lou. But having thoroughly dominated the minors to the tune of a 2.65 career ERA, this 6'7" lefty w/ a good (though not as hard as you'd think) sinker and decent command seems like he could handle starting. The Cubs gave him 43 starts between '06-'07 (w/ OK but not great success) but he only got 9 starts in '09. However, this cash-strapped organization probably doesn't want to lose one of it's cheaper players.

Dana Eveland (OAK) - Another big lefty w/ good stuff who had success in the minors (noticing a trend here?), Eveland finally got his shot last year making 29 starts w/ OAK and posted a 4.09 FIP. However, he lost his rotation spot after a tough start in '09, due in part to a .335 BABIP. He has always had command issues and w/ Oakland's good young crop of pitching (Cahill, Anderson, Mazzaro, Braden, Gonzalez & Simmons) he could be available.

Tim Stauffer (SD) - Often ranking in SD's top 5 prospects, this 4th overall pick in '03 took years to get back to the majors after a solid debut in '05. He's had various arm injuries but still boasts the deep repertoire, low 90's FB and pin-point command that made him a first rounder, though he was most definitely an overdraft at the time. He posted a 4.67 FIP in 14 starts this year. The Padres are relying heavily on youth so he might not be available but after years of waiting they might just be getting tired of his act.

Charlie Haeger (LAD) - Why not bring in the the best knuckleballer since Tim Wakefield ? He's always posted decent #'s in the minors (3.87 career minors ERA, 3.22 ERA in 22 starts in AAA this year) and even translated that success to the majors as a starter. He even possesses a mid-80's FB (compared to Wake who averaged 72.4 in '09). His problem is that he can't pitch in relief and that's the role he's been given most often so he's looked bad. But Haeger is the perfect guy for this list, he probably won't work out but costs nothing and judging by Wakefield's success could definitely find a niche and pitch well for a long time.

Joe Martinez (SF) - This West Orange, NJ product (most famous for being hit in the head this spring) posted a 3.51 ERA in the minors including a 2.49 in AA in 2008. He doesn't blow anyone away with his stuff, throwing in the high 80's but works off a decent curve and a plus change and doesn't walk many guys. Problem for him is that there's just no room in the Giants good young rotation with guys like Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner next in line and Martinez ranking as the Giant's 30th best prospect in '09 by BA. It reminds me a lot of the Brian Bannister situation. Fun Fact: He pitched at Seton Hall Prep. w/ Rick Porcello.

Jo-Jo Reyes (ATL) - Here's a longshot. He posted a 7 ERA this season before going down w/ a hamstring and has never really had much, if any, success in the majors. However, as this Fangraphs article points out, Reyes was posting about a 5 FIP in '09 w/ a great deal of bad luck going against him in terms of HR/FB and LOB%. He also saw a HUGE jump in % of swinging strikes in '09 after reportedly relying more heavily on his good slider. Still a definite reach at best.

Ian Kennedy (NYY) - W/ a 1.96 minor league ERA posted mostly at AA or AAA, you've got to put him on this list. He's always posted plenty of K's, usually less hits than ip and limits his BB's. The problem is that in his 60 majors innings, none of this has been true. My take has always been that he has great command of middling stuff and is very smart about pitching which is enough to dominate minor leaguers but it's a different story w/ the best hitters in the world. Maybe I'm right but he's currently dominating the AFL and those minor league #'s warrant another look; plus, in his highly publicized '08 failed shot at the rotation he did post a very unlucky .347 BABIP, especially when coupled w/ an incredibly low 11.6% LD rate.

The Big Book of Available Pitchers

robcast23 — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 15:54:29 -0000

Think of this as an 'Idiot's Guide to Available Starting Pitching in 2010'. I'd been sifting through like 5-6 different sources with a few weeks now and eventually I thought I'd just put it all together. Hopefully it'll serve as sort of a comprehensive guide to refer back to throughout the winter. I'll do varying degrees of stat-based analysis, pros & cons, risks, all based on how relevant each player is; all with a bit of a Mets slant of course. Free agents on top, trade targets down below.

_________________________________________Free Agency________________________________________

*in alphabetical order

Erik Bedard - '09 WAR: 1.9

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA	BABIP
2009	83.0	2.82	3.55	9.76	3.69	8	0.217	0.283

When he's out there the stuff is still great (FB velocity up over one full MPH in '09) and the numbers back that up. but hes definitely too much of an injury risk to rely on.

Risks: Coming off his second shoulder surgery in a calendar year, health is the big BIG concern. To make matters worse, it was discovered to be a torn labrum, baseball's most debilitating pitching injury. BP injury-guru Will Carroll figures only 3% of such cases return to previous levels of performance. He's pitched <85ip for the last 2 years and only might be ready for ST. Risky enough for you?

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Aroldis Chapman

Maybe the most intriguing pitcher available this offseason is Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. In case you're just tuning in the kid is 21, lefty and possesses a VERY good fastball. Obviously the upside of a lefty who can regularly hit 100mph is amazing but IMO the risks here outweigh the benefits by quite a bit. For better or worse, Chapman reminds me of a young Oliver Perez in a lot of ways.

Risks: He will no doubt be looking for a Daisuke level contract, upwards of $50+M and 5+yrs. Yet Chapman doesn't have nearly the same polish that Matsuzaka had and even Daisuke hasn't been an overwhelming success. What's more, Chapman has problems throwing strikes and in his last season in Cuba posted a 4.03 era. Things will only get worse in his first year(s) here until he learns to make adjustments, assuming he ever does and thats a lot of money to throw away.

*Watch Chapman pitch against Australia's WBC team here

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Doug Davis - '09 WAR: 1.7

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA	BABIP
2009	203.1	4.31	4.84	6.46	4.56	25	0.261	0.294

Here's a "Plan B" kind of guy. Although I must say, his VERY consistent ability to post low to mid 4 ERA/FIP's shouldn't be overlooked. Nor the fact that he pitches 200 innings every year. And he's got a damn good curve but he certainly won't solve our Base on Balls problem. On a cheap, 1yr deal he would fit well into middle of a rotation.

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Justin Duchscherer- '08 WAR: 3.0

Remember when this guy posted a 2.54 era back in '08? Well as quickly as he appeared he vanished, missing the start of the '09 season with elbow pain and he never made it back, due in part to a diagnosis with clinical depression. Realistically Duchscherer can't be counted on to take a rotation spot, who knows where his head will be come ST. Not only that but even in his that fateful 2008 (his only season as a starter) he made only 22 starts due to day-to-day stuff and spent most of the season before on the DL requiring hip surgery.

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Jon Garland - '09 WAR: 2.4

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA	BABIP
2009	204.0	4.01	4.48	4.81	2.69	23	0.281	0.302

Could he be had for a cheap 1-2yr deal? Yes. Will he pitch a ton of innings and avoid injury? Yes. But the bottomline is that the guy pitches to a 4.50-5era year in, year out and while I'm willing to take a hit on performance for good value, this is kind of a stretch. While those numbers might get a bit better at Citi, I'd say he's a 'Plan B' at best.

Risks: Just about the only risk is his performance bottoming out.

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Rich Harden - '09 WAR: 1.8

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA	BABIP
2009	142.0	4.09	4.35	10.91	4.28	23	0.235	0.304

Of course we all know about the enticing stuff (see: league-leading swing and miss rate) but the guy has topped 180ip once in his career. In fact, with his issue getting deep into games due to pitch counts, his spotty health and his excellent fastball, he reminds me a lot of John Maine. Beyond health, his poorer final totals this year came as a result of by far the worst HR/FB of his career. However, since the rest of his ratios didn't drop too badly one can reasonably expect more typical results next year.

Risks: Health. In 6 full seasons, he's stayed healthy enough in three to be a ~4 WAR pitcher. So basically he's a 50/50 shot to be an excellent contributor which for a cheap 1yr deal would be acceptable but probably not your first option.

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Tim Hudson

Hudson only becomes available if the Braves drop his $12M option this winter, which seems unlikely according to Jayson Stark. Hudson returned in September from TJ and looked strong; his velocity returned to pre-TJ levels and all of his ratios matched his past few seasons. There is already some talk that Hudson and the Braves will work out an extension past 2011 and as Hudson wants to stay in ATL, he's already talking hometown discount.

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John Lackey - '09 WAR: 3.9

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA	BABIP
2009	176.0	3.83	3.73	7.09	2.4	17	0.263	0.309

Lackey is probably the best/most reliable arm available this winter. But even he has his warts: Some people say his stuff is declining, numerous arm injuries over the past 2 seasons, he's on the wrong side of 30. But the big issue here for me is the contract. He rejected a 4yr, $60M offer by the Halos coming into this season so he is clearly looking for an ace-level contract. And as much as I like him as a top of the rotation work horse, I don't like him that much. Jon Heyman had an anonymous GM guesstimated a 5yr/$75M contract for Lackey. Would I sign him? Of course, but do I? Probably not unless all other holes are filled very creatively.

Risks: Don't worry about the stuff, he's still going strong. But he has spent 74 days on the DL with elbow injuries in the past 2 seasons. Way too much of a concern to give him 5 years. I'd love to see him behind Johan in 2010 but you just can't sink yourself into a 4-5yr deal unless it's a really special talent with little risk attached which Lackey is not.

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Jason Marquis - '09 WAR: 3.8

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA GB/FB
2009	216.0	4.04	4.10	4.79	3.33	15	0.267 2.03

Yes, he pitches a lot of innings. Yes, he just had an ok year in Colorado. The problem is that in his previous 3 seasons his ERA was closer to 5 (sometimes 6) and that' s when he hadn't been demoted out of the rotation. Remember what I said earlier about not rewarding a guy for suddenly pitching well in his FA season? Well someone is going to give him a multi-year deal and chances are they're going to regret it.

Risks: Lowering K-rates and sudden drop in HR/9 make '09 look lucky. Sorry Frenchy, but Marquis seems like the biggest 2010 FA bust in the entire class.

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Brad Penny - '09 WAR: 2.5

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA	BABIP
2009	173.1	4.88	4.46	5.66	2.65	22	0.281	0.308

Penny has always been inconsistent year-to-year, now he seems to have reached the point where he's going from bad to worse. In his last 150+ip he's posted an ERA around 5.50 and he's giving up more longballs than ever. His fb velocity is actually up this year but that was never the problem; Penny looks nearly done to me.

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Joel Pineiro - '09 WAR: 4.8

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA	GB/FB
2009	214.0	3.49	3.28	4.42	1.14	11	0.265	2.54

Seems like a perfect fit most notably because of his miniscule walk totals (only 27 all year), an issue for the entire '09 Mets staff. But the whole thing with Pineiro is whether you buy into the changes he's made that have made him so successful. In short, before '09 Dave Duncan convinced Pineiro to stop trying to strike out hitters with his secondary stuff, in other words stop nibbling. He explained that the sink on his two-seam fb is good enough that if he threw this pitch most of the time he would have more success. And voila, best season of his career. His GB/FB went from an already good 1.63 in '08 to an impossible 2.63 in '09. If you buy in you'll probably have to outbid a few other teams and offer at least a three year deal

Risks: I hate to reward a pitcher (w/ a career 4.37era) for a career year in his free agent season. He'll also be leaving Dave Duncan, which is always a bad thing. He has been relatively durable but arm problems tend to pop up every few years or so, most recently shoulder pain in '08. And finally there are rumors that he is looking at Kyle Lohse's 4yr/$41M (and full no trade) monstrosity as a starting point which would negate any good value.

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Ben Sheets - '08 WAR: 4.4

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA	BABIP
2008	198.1	3.09	3.38	7.17	2.13	17	0.244	0.290
2009				DNP

Here is an interesting high risk/ high reward option. However it's not if he'll get hurt, it's when. In fact Sheets has made at least one trip to the DL every year since 2005 with a wide assortment of injuries. However, when he pitches he is still very effective. In '08 he managed to pitch nearly 200 innings, his K rates were very strong, not a lot of walks and he remained one of the less hittable guys in baseball to the tune of a .244 BAA and a 3.09 era. There were rumors last offseason that the Mets were one of two teams most interested in Sheets, despite his injury history and as a flyball pitcher, he could thrive in Citi.

Risks: Obviously health. Though he's pitched well despite injury before, his most recent injury was the most significant of his career, a torn flexor tendon in his pitching elbow. Who knows if he can come back strong, though he has been rehabbing all season long down in Texas. At this point he seems too big a risk to bank on as a primary pitching acquisition.

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John Smoltz - '09 WAR: 1.5

After being shut down in September due to shoulder tendinitis, at age 42 can he still be expected to pitch through a full season? His velocity, while still decent, is down a bunch and despite reports of still decent stuff, he hasn't had ANY semblance of fastball command. One note: His FIP was actually decent but his BABIP of .364 was way too high; is this bad luck or a result of way too many middle-middle fastballs creating more LD's? Either way its too risky for the Mets to take that chance.

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Jarrod Washburn - '09 WAR: 2.1

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA	BABIP
2009	176.0	3.78	4.57	5.11	2.51	23	0.244	0.257

Much like Jason Marquis, Washburn is having what looks like a pretty good season in his contract year. But don't be fooled, this is a mirage. Powered mostly by a ridiculously low .257 BABIP. This has meant a 1.19 WHIP, compared to his past four seasons averaging 1.39. In fact since he began calling pitcher friendly Safeco Field home in '06, Washburn has posted FIP's at 4.50 or above in 4 straight seasons, including this one. Like Garland, if you can ink him to a strict one year deal for cheap, make him a Plan B. Otherwise, pass.

Risks: He could probably be had for a cheap deal following his collapse in DET/creaky old knee woes but he is going to turn back into a pumpkin in 2010, no doubt. Not only that but the guy is 35 and has heard the words 'day-to-day' more than a few times in the last couple seasons.

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Brandon Webb - '08 WAR: 6.1

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA	GB/FB
2008	226.2	3.30	3.28	7.27	2.58	13	0.244	3.15
2009				Injured

The D-Backs have hinted that following his shoulder surgery they will NOT pick up Webb's option, hoping instead for a compromise from Webb to accept a pay cut. Webb stated: "If it comes down to that...I would have to see what else is out there and see if there's something better." Webb will most likely be back in time for ST and has remained nearly injury free up until this year. IMO this represents a unique option to add an ace-caliber pitcher to back up Johan for likely a 2-3 year deal.

Risks: Coming off of shoulder surgery who knows what you'll get with Webb. Dr. James Andrews stated that this wasn't a structural issue and most importantly there was NO labrum tear so he should come back fine but it is the same Shoulder Debridement surgery Erik Bedard had prior to his injury plagued 2009. Josh Byrnes has also stated recently that there is a chance the option gets picked up.

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Randy Wolf - '09 WAR: 3.0

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA	BABIP
2009	214.0	3.23	3.96	6.72	2.44	24	0.227	0.257

Though not a dominator, Wolf has been posting FIP's at or below 4 for the past few seasons which is acceptable. He seems to have settled into that finesse lefty, Moyer-esque niche very nicely late in his career and I don't see a reason why he can't continue to do so. Coming off a one year, $5M contract, I doubt he goes for less than two years this winter after he wanted 3yrs, $30M last winter. If you can get him at two years for less than $15M, not a bad deal but no more.

Risks: Unsustainably low .258 BABIP suggests that his ERA will not remain in the low 3's like this year; expect closer to 4. At 33 age is a minor issue. Missed some time a few years back due to shoulder problems but seems relatively durable since.

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Bronson Arroyo - '09 WAR: 1.8

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA	BABIP
2009	220.1	3.84	4.78	5.19	2.66	31	0.256	0.27

While he may seem like a tremendous option to arrogant drivetime radio hosts, Arroyo really isn't. This is a guy whose posted mid-4 FIP's in each of the past 5 seasons. His last 2 "good seasons" according to ERA (2006 & 2009) have come thanks to career-low BABIP's. And for what it's worth he is wildly inconsistent start-to-start. Meanwhile he's being paid $11M for the next 2 years. No thanks.

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Roy Halladay - '09 WAR: 7.3

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR	BAA	BABIP
2009	239.0	2.79	3.06	7.83	1.32	22	0.258	0.313

He's greatness. He has arguably the best combo of stuff and command in baseball. He is regularly putting up 5+ WAR seasons and despite his age (32) hes only getting better, posting a 6.5 in '08 and he's on pace for a similar figure in '09. Fangraphs' Dave Cameron equates this performance in terms of trade value and suggests that it translates into 3 top prospects; "Mets fans? Fernando Martinez, Wilmer Flores, and Jenrry Mejia."

Risks: He costs too much. Ricciardi made it clear that he wouldn't talk without 3 top prospects in the mix. Maybe his successor, Alex Anthopoulos, will be more lenient. All that said, if we can lock him up for a few years after a trade (a la Johan) I'd be willing to give significant value (i.e. a package around Wilmer & Holt).

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Aaron Harang - '09 WAR: 2.5

Harang was one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball for years, posting ~6 WAR seasons from '04-'07. However, these last couple years instead of ERA's in the mid-3's, he's been in the mid-to-high 4's while his key ratios haven't declined too much. He posted a .339 BABIP this season but he's always been one to post +.300 levels, even in his best years so that may be meaningless. So what to make of him? I'd say he'd probably make a decent buy-low candidate as he's still only 31, if it weren't for that $12.5M salary next year.

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Felix Hernandez - '09 WAR: 6.9

It's just not possible. Exhibit A: For those who didn't hear, Boston and Seattle were linked in trade talks around the trade deadline; Theo approached SEA, offered any 5 of a group of 8 prospects that included Bucholz, Masterson, Bowden, Hagadone, Bard & Reddick, among others. Seattle rejected. The moral of the story is that we could literally clean out our system and still not afford Felix. And probably rightly so, he was downright incredible this year at age 23(!), posting a 6 WAR and hasn't even entered into arbitration years yet. Seattle also wants to talk about an extension this winter (good luck with that).

Anyone curious about Zack Greinke, see above. Plus, he recently said he doesn't want to pitch in NY due to anxiety issues.

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Derek Lowe - '09 WAR: 2.7

Believe it or not, there are rumors that Frank Wren will be shopping Lowe this offseason. It actually makes sense; they've got a definite pitching surplus, Lowe costs a lot and they need another bat. The problem is, how much would we really want to give for a guy coming off a pretty sub-par year in his age 36 season who is owed $15M for the next 3 years? I mean he saw declines across the board from K/9 and BB/9 to his bread and butter GB/FB. He might make for a decent buy-low candidate but the Braves would never deal him within the division for very cheap.

Risks: His key indicators definitely point to some declining ability and thats the last thing you want to hear with 3yrs/$45M left. However, I keep looking to that .330 BABIP and if the Braves are really motivated to move him I'd consider it.

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Gil Meche - '09 WAR: 1.5

After signing that 5yr/$55M deal, Meche pitched a couple of decent seasons as if to prove he was worth it. However, '09 was not as successful with an ERA above 5 and a FIP to match. But there were some solid signs for Meche, including his vast improvement in GB/FB and his career-best LD%. In addition, he suffered some bad luck in the BABIP dept this season.

Risks: The aforementioned contract w/ 3 years left is definitely a whopper if he's not pitching well. In addition Meche has always had difficulty controlling his good stuff and walks are an issue with him. He also suffered a back injury in '09. Probably too much of a long shot for us.

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Roy Oswalt - '09 WAR: 3.1

While he's obviously not the CY Young candidate he was back in '01-'02, Oswalt is still pretty effective. Even his 4.12 ERA this year isn't as bad when you see his 3.76 FIP. He has seen slight declines in K/9 but otherwise his ratios have remained pretty stable, even the BAA. The only question is whether or not the Astros finally bite the bullet and deal him (and would the unabashed country boy even accept a deal to NY?)

Risks: Health has been a factor throughout his career, though to be fair he hasn't pitched less than 180ip since 2003. But you can mark down at least 1 trip to the DL just about every season, including a serious back issue this year. Money always ties into health and he doesn't come cheap; Oswalt will receive $15M in 2010 and $16M in 2011 with an option for $16M in 2012.

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Javier Vazquez - '09 WAR: 6.6

Now the Braves clearly have some decisions to make regarding their pitching surplus but why would they deal Vazquez? He's always healthy and he's coming off a career year where he was clearly their best starter. Not only that but other than Roy Halladay he's the only pitcher to pass 4.5 WAR in each of the last 4 seasons. However, the performance/salary of both Lowe and Kawakami make them difficult to deal if you're looking to get a big bat back to replace/supplant Chipper. And at age 34, Tim Hudson is coming off TJ surgery. Obviously Jurrjens and Hanson are untouchable.

Risks: To acquire Vazquez within the division we'd have to give the Braves the moon and the stars. Too much basically.

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Carlos Zambrano - '09 WAR: 3.6

Word on the street is that the Cubs will be shopping Big Z this winter. And while that sounds tempting, most people have yet to realize that Zambrano is not the pitcher he once was. In fact, before this season he hadn't posted a FIP below 4 since 2005. Even this season required quite a bit of luck to do so. Many key ratios like FB velo., BAA, GB/FB & HR/9 have been trending down for years and many point to his massive workload at such a young age.

Risks: At ~$18M for 4 more season, this contract could get VERY ugly, very fast if/when Zambrano's gradual decline continues.

MetsBlog: Murph & Stoner to DWL

robcast23 — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 22:16:41 -0000

MetsBlog: Murph & Stoner to DWL

Apparently Murphy and Tobi Stoner will be headed down to the D.R. this offseason for some winter ball. Each team plays a fifty-game schedule that begins the end of October and runs to the end of December.

A quick look at the roster of the Leones and it looks like Murph will be the headliner as far as current major leaguers go. Good for him that hes willing to head down there work on some things this offseason.

Hyde: Davis & Tejada to AFL; Kirk & Jenrry next?

robcast23 — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 18:02:59 -0000

Hyde: Davis & Tejada to AFL; Kirk & Jenrry next?

I'm very interested to see what Ruben Tejada will do in AZ as one of youngest players out there.