SB Nation User Blog: roboz

Eastern League All-Star Game

roboz — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 04:37:39 -0000

On a whim — spontaneity is my middle name, after all — I decided to snag a couple tickets to tonight’s Eastern League All-Star Game (AA) in beautiful downtown Trenton, New Jersey. I do try my best at staying up with all levels of baseball’s prospectdom, honest, but sometimes trying to track all these players and all these teams and all these levels of competition leaves me disoriented and completely overwhelmed, lost in a sea of seemingly never-ending prospects. I'm more of a fan of tracking amateur guys personally, so I come before the community asking for a life preserver of knowledge lest I drift further out to sea. Alright, now that my awful metaphor is dead and buried, here's my question: Have I’ve overlooked any big names to watch heading into tonight’s game? Here’s what I’ve got so far:

Northern Division —> Zach McAllister, Anthony Slama, Junichi Tazawa (not playing), Madison Bumgarner (not playing), Brian Jeroloman, Jesus Montero, Josh Thole (not playing), Lars Anderson, Whit Robbins

Southern Division —> Daniel Moskos, Joe Savery, Vance Worley, Hector Rondon (not playing), Alex Avila, Carlos Santana, Brian Friday, Beau Mills, Quintin Berry, Mike Taylor, Nick Weglarz

Link to page with links to rosters

I'm bummed about missing some of the high level arms and I would have liked to seen Thole behind the plate, but it'll be fun checking out some of the really big boppers (Montero, Anderson, Santana, Mills, Taylor, and Weglarz) live and in color.

So, who am I missing? Or, who on the list is someone I should pay extra special attention to? Or, should I just skip the game entirely and see what other fun, legal or otherwise, I can conjure up in Trenton on a Wednesday night?

College Baseball Opening Day

roboz — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 11:04:34 -0000

It's not a national holiday, but it should be. I know college baseball means a lot of things to a lot of people - following a favorite team, conference, an old buddy from high school, whatever. Well, I'm a child of the northeast who grew up in an area full of baseball fans that probably don't even know they play the sport at the collegiate level...so, for me, the start of college baseball means the unofficial start of draft season.

I'm happy to get the ball rolling with some notes on random draft-eligible players who had interesting debuts. Feel free to add anything college, high school, or draft related...

Alex White (UNC) - 9 K's, 5 GO, 1 AO, 90 total pitches

Nick Hernandez (Tennessee) with a solid outing against Oregon State

Dustin Ackley (UNC) started at first, but later moved to centerfield. Business as usual at the plate...the first of many 3-hit games.

Riley Cooper (Florida), who started in right and hit seventh in the lineup, went 1-3 with a run scored.

Kentrail Davis (Tennessee), who played centerfield and hit third, went 1-2 with 3 walks, 1 RBI, R, K. The plate discipline is nice, as is his playing CF. If scouts begin to look at him as a viable long-term option there, his stock will shoot up.

Chris Dominguez (Louisville) K Watch 2009: 0-4, 2 K

Upset Specials: A10 over ACC - La Salle beat Duke, Rhode Island beat NC State

"Scouting" Report: Daniel Bard, UNC SP

roboz — Wed, 29 Mar 2006 03:23:03 -0000

WARNING: This is going to be a massively long first entry, so I apologize in advance.

So, I caught a good bit of college baseball earlier this month and I've just now gotten around to doing a few writeups of what I saw. I'm not a scout nor am I am any kind of expert (obviously), but I am a baseball fan with a big time interest in prospects - I mean, that's why we're all at this site, right? Anyway, I wrote this up and planned to post it on my little personal website, but I figured I'd share it here as well. I'm hoping to do similar pieces on some of the other top draft prospects I saw, but Daniel Bard was the first name on my list so here he is. Again, sorry for the length of this...I really got carried away.

North Carolina righthanded starter Daniel Bard is one of the most highly touted pitching prospects at the amateur level. His much hyped game really needs no introduction...and yet, in an attempt to be as thorough as possible here, allow me to rattle off a sampling of his accomplishments and accolades. Bard was a twentieth round pick by the New York Yankees after graduating from the Charlotte Christian School. He spurned the Yanks to sign with the University of North Carolina (good thing too or else this piece would make a heck of a lot less sense). This decision paid off for Bard as he went on to win the ACC Freshman of the Year award and a spot on the Freshman All-American team as named by Collegiate Baseball in his first year of college ball. Bard followed up his strong freshman season with an even stronger sophomore campaign. His sophomore year was followed up by his breakthrough performance pitching for the Wareham Gatemen of the Cape Cod League. Baseball America named him to their College Summer All-America second team and rated him the league's number two professional prospect (the number one prospect that summer was his UNC teammate lefthanded starter Andrew Miller). Heading into 2006, Bard was named to just about every preseason All-America and All-ACC team possible - Baseball America, Collegiate Baseball, and SEBaseball.com all lauded him as player to watch in 2006. Baseball America finished up the Bard-lovefest by naming him college baseball's number four junior prospect.

Despite all of the glowing praise, I was skeptical of Bard going into the game I "scouted" for two reasons. First off, Bard has a rather high career BB/IP rate (74 BBs in 184.2 IP) and reports of his shaky control in the scouting community are well documented. The second concern about Bard deals with scouting reports which claim he lacks any kind of solid secondary pitches. Those two concerns led me to mentally prepare for one of those classic dominating pitchers who can get by in the college game by simply blowing away lesser talented competition with a fastball better than any other pitch they've seen before. If old baseball clichés are more your thing, try to imagine a player who scouts like to proclaim is more of a thrower than a pitcher - this description is exactly what I was expecting as I settled into my seat behind home plate at Boshamer Stadium. It seems the two concerns over Bard's game go hand in hand. He doesn't have the secondary stuff that can be thrown consistently for strikes which hurts his overall performance. Because of this, he tends to get wild at times; check his BB, HBP, and WP numbers as evidence for this. Bard has had trouble controlling his less refined secondary stuff; perhaps, if he sharpened up said secondary stuff and managed to get his slider over for strikes consistently, his control as a whole would improve as well.

Bard's lack of control and relatively weak secondary stuff will have significant implications on his success in the major leagues unless addressed. If Bard has shown iffy control at the college level (where it is not at all uncommon to see players overanxious and willing to go after that first ball fastball, especially when facing a pitcher capable of throwing a 95 MPH heater), one can only imagine the potential difficulties he'll face when going against pros. Advanced professional hitters eat up any pitcher who relies solely on his fastball in an attempt to blow people away. Bard has been able to get by with just that four-seam fastball of his thus far, so the pressure to develop better breaking stuff when facing inferior collegiate competition isn't there. If a guy can throw it by a hitter, he can get into a bad habit of simply trying to do so every time. Why mess around with setting up hitters and developing quality breaking stuff when it just hasn't been necessary for him to do to this point? I'm sure Bard realizes (along with the UNC coaching staff, hopefully) if he wants to reach the bigs some day, these are the flaws in his game he will need to iron out as a pro.

Purdue @ North Carolina - March 4, 2006

After Bard knocked Purdue shortstop and All America candidate Mitch Hilligoss to the dirt with a pitch that hit him square in the helmet, one of the Purdue fans behind us (an elderly lady if memory serves) remarked about Bard, "Look at him. He walks like he's tough stuff out there." I don't know who that lady was, but I wish I did so I could properly credit her for her simple, yet profound observation of young Daniel Bard. It's hard to explain, but Bard just has the look of a big league pitcher out on the mound. After hitting Hilligoss to start the game, he didn't appear phased in the least bit; I'm actually not sure I saw him react at all. Big things (peripheral stats, component ratios, etc.) matter most of course, but little observations such as the response of a young pitcher after something goes awry can be helpful performance evaluating tools as well.

With Hilligoss on first to lead off the game, Bard got to work on the Boilermaker lineup. It looked for a moment after the beanball that the bad, wild Bard would show up on this day, but he came right back to get catcher Spencer Ingaldson looking at a called third strike. This was followed by a stellar defensive play by Carolina first baseman Chad Flack on a sharply hit groundball by Purdue's Eric Wolfe. In the second, Bard got himself into a bit of a jam. Two singles were sandwiched between Bard's second strikeout of the game (Ryan White, swinging) and the Boilermakers had two men on with one out. Bard struck out Eric Osborn (looking) for the second out of the inning before hitting his second batter of the game. The victim this time was Dane Wolfe, who was unfortunate enough to catch a Bard fastball square in the back. Bard faced Purdue's nine-hole hitter with two outs and the bases loaded; he popped up in foul ground to first baseman Chad Flack. Inning over.

The first two innings were a rocky start for Bard compared to the four that followed. After getting Kyle Reesing to pop up ending the second, the good Bard showed up. When everything is working for him, he is a groundball machine - not literally of course, I don't think many colleges give out athletic scholarships for machines these days. Bard got three successive groundouts in the third, shook off an inning opening error in the fourth with back to back strikeouts, added two more K's to his line in the fifth, and (am I getting redundant?) set the lineup down in order in the sixth while striking out two more. That's four innings, six strikeouts, and five groundouts (one popup) with the only man reaching base coming on a Bryan Steed error.

Bard ran into some difficulties in the seventh inning (Carolina was up 4-0 at this point) when he allowed his first two runs of the game to score on an Eric Osborn homerun. This homerun came on a fastball that Eric Osborn guessed right on. Osborn is listed at 5'11'', 180 pounds. There is no way in the world that he is that big; he looked to be about two inches shorter and at least fifteen pounds lighter. The Eric Osborn's of the college baseball world should not be hitting homeruns off of Daniel Bard, but as long as Bard's secondary stuff remains suspect, hitters can sit on his fastball and just try to take their best swings at it. Osborn swung as hard as he could and put Purdue back in the ballgame with one stroke of the bat. Bard followed up the homerun by issuing his first walk of the afternoon, but settled down after that to strike out Kyle Reesing and get Mitch Hilligoss to ground out to short. Bard went on to retire five in a row before a bunt single by, you guessed it, Eric Osborn in the ninth. Osborn may be tiny, but he was a thorn in the side of Bard all day. The Carolina dugout began to stir and many in the ballpark believed Tar Heels closer Jonathan Hovis was going to be brought on to get the cheap one out save to end it, but the Heels stuck with Bard. The move paid off as his 111th pitch of the day resulted in pinch hitter Jordan Comadena's game ending groundout to first.

Bard's match ups with Mitch Hilligoss over the course of the day made for very interesting games within the game. Hilligoss is considered a legitimate pro prospect and there is added value in seeing two players with professional futures go head to head with one another. Hilligoss reached base after getting plunked in the helmet in the first and, unfortunately for him, this turned out to be the highlight of his day. Hilligoss grounded out twice to the shortstop (one time on a hard hit ball, one time on more of a dribbler) and also struck out swinging at a fastball.

The way Bard racked up his outs was impressive. There were only 2 fly ball outs for the game - neither of which were really fly balls at all (both infield popups). The North Carolina outfield did not have to touch a ball all afternoon long. Bard induced 11 groundball outs and picked up 13 strikeouts. The missing 27th out came on a Mitch Hilligoss caught stealing in the first inning.

Bard threw mostly four-seam fastballs through the first two innings of the game, but seemed to alter his game plan after giving up two hits and hitting two players in the first two frames. He rediscovered his slider beginning in the third and used it effectively enough to at least make hitters less likely to sit on the fastball...up until Osborn beat him deep in the seventh anyway. Bard's fastball is special. It was probably the first thing that jumped out at me in warm-ups before the game began and left a lasting impression long after I left the park. There was no radar gun at the park, but it really wasn't necessary with the way he was throwing (for the record, scouts place Bard's fastball in the 94-95 MPH range, with the ability to touch 98). The pop of the mitt when the fastball connected was simply different than the same sound with other pitchers on the hill. The reaction of hitters to the fastball was interesting to note as well. It took the Purdue team two full turns through the lineup before they began to get any kind of timing down on his four-seamer. The number of late swing foul balls and groundball dribblers the opposite way showed the way Bard's mid-90's fastball overmatched the Purdue hitters - it was as if they hadn't seen a fastball like it in a long time.

Pitchers with great fastballs get plenty of chances as they advance professionally, but eventually a lack of strong secondary stuff catches up. To this end, it is evident to even a casual observer that Bard's slider needs a good bit of work. He wasn't getting it over for strikes, it had a horribly inconsistent break (sometimes looking impressive, but more often just hanging out over the plate), and he only seemed confident enough in it to use it as a "show-me" pitch rather than a potential out pitch. I had read scouting reports going into the game that Bard's curveball was his second plus pitch, but he appeared very reluctant to use it. If I was the minor league pitching coach assigned to the job of expanding Bard's repertoire (thankfully for all parties involved I'm not), I'd advise Bard to stick to what has worked thus far. He is a big, strong pitcher with the abilities to succeed at the next level as a power pitcher. My personal advice to him: ditch the slider and work towards picking up either a change or really attempt to refine that curve, but also take the time to focus on a two-seam that'll sink or, if he is feeling frisky, a split. Sometimes it is necessary to embrace what you are and play to your strengths - if Bard is going to succeed, it will be as a power pitcher who keeps the ball down in the zone and strikes a large number of batters out (sounds so simple, doesn't it?). He already throws an effective four-seam, he does an excellent job keeping the ball down, but the one thing he lacks is a true, put them away strike out pitch. Against Purdue the four-seamers struck out more than a few batters, but professional hitters will jump all over a fastball if they know it is coming, even with two strikes. Bottom line: Bard's arm is special, but his pitching arsenal and control absolutely need some refinement.

Bard has excellent raw stuff, a nice fluid three-quarter arm slot on his delivery that appeared to remain consistent with nearly every pitch, a repeatable arm action every time, and the positive makeup that scouts will love. He also looks the part of a pitcher - he is a tall, lean righthander (6'4'', 202 pounds) with a nice thick lower body. He pitched wonderfully in the one game I saw and I walked away very impressed with his performance (final line: 9 IP 5 H 2 ER 1 BB 13 K). The two causes of skepticism I had going in have not completely vanished (his control as a whole was slightly less impressive when factoring in the two hit batters and his secondary stuff still needs work), but I saw enough to believe some major league team will fall in love with Bard's arm come June. If he falls out of the top ten picks, it would be a major upset at this point - Colorado, Tampa, Seattle, Cincinnati, and Baltimore all appear to be teams that have a logical need for a pitcher like Bard. It may sound crazy (especially taking into account Bard's recent struggles), but if Bard can maintain what appears to be an improving groundout to flyout ratio, he could get consideration by Colorado as the second overall pick in the draft.

College Baseball

roboz — Fri, 03 Mar 2006 00:08:13 -0000

This is a personal question as far as the specifics, but can definitely be expanded to include a broader range of comments - as I've mentioned before in other diaries, I'm heading down to Chapel Hill this weekend on a little "scouting" trip to see some college baseball (Purdue @ UNC). It seems there has been a bit more college baseball and draft talk here recently and I'm hoping to cash in on the momentum of that to get advice on what players I should pay extra attention to. Here's the list I'm starting with...

UNC
Saturday's SP Daniel Bard
Sunday's SP Andrew Miller
SS Josh Horton (BA's 19th best Soph. prospect)
1B Chad Flack (BA's 41st Soph. prospect)
OF Matt Spencer (BA's 3rd best prospect in CPL)
3B Reid Fronk (BA's 10th best prospect in Northwoods League)

Bard and Miller are the obvious studs; as for the rest of the group, I know very little about each guy other other than their statlines and what BA thinks of them.

I'll miss the Jay Buente-Robert Woodward matchup on Friday which is a shame since Buente represents half of my Purdue baseball knowledge. The only other Boilermaker I know of that looks like a prospect is SS Mitch Hilligoss (he'd be the other half of that knowledge).

Any other players worth watching - either specifically in this game (if you feel like helping a novice like me out) OR in a much broader context of college baseball (to make my diary feel less selfish - who are some top guys, sleepers, favorite guys on your favorite teams, etc.)?

I know John said he was going to take a look at college baseball soon, but I figured this was a decent place for anybody with any thoughts on college baseball to get the ball rolling.

Oh and if this diary ends up being a bust, hopefully it won't be considered a total lost - I'll find a way to post pictures somewhere of some of the guys I see in action (namely Bard and Miller) and provide a link if anybody is interested. Thanks to anybody that responds, I'm really trying to get into college baseball this year and am curious as to see what the community has to say about it.

Ryan Howard's Future...Maybe

roboz — Wed, 09 Nov 2005 05:21:32 -0000

Sorry this is way too long, but John's great Crystal Ball features generate so much debate that I thought I'd eventually have to chime in with at least an attempt of creativity. This site really is the authority on prospects with good stuff ranging from all of John's work to the great community of posters in the diary section. I'm a huge Phillies fan by the way, but you probably could have guessed that from the massive entry on Howard. If you have the time/patience/interest, enjoy.

Ryan Howard has a great run as a Phillie becoming one of the most popular players in club history and a four time All-Star. However, Phillies management can't reach a deal with the big slugger and he is dealt to reigning World Series champion Toronto Blue Jays for a couple of young arms. Howard doesn't deliver quite what the Jays needed him to and they fall short in the ALCS against the Angels (I'm not imaginative enough to come up with a city name for them).

Even with the disappointing end to their season, the Blue Jays make a big push to retain Howard's services, but the 81-81 Detroit Tigers throw down a 5-year, $90 million deal to put their young squad over the top. Offers by the Blue Jays and Howard's hometown St. Louis Cardinals are considered, but eventually turned aside. Ryan is hailed as the missing link on a Tigers team featuring the best staff in the game. Their so-called "Tres Tigres" of Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, and Joel Zumaya are the envy of every team in baseball and nothing short of a pennant in 2011 is considered good enough.

Howard begins his Tigers career with a titanic blast right on out of Comerica Park - he is the first one to knock a ball completely out of a ballpark in Detroit since they tore down Tiger Stadium. Astute baseball fans begin to notice the ever so slight decline in Howard's bat speed while pretty much everybody else notices the not so slight increase around his waistline. Howard has a personally successful first two seasons in Detroit, but the team fails short of its goals both seasons. Howard has a series of nagging injuries in 2013 season, but still maintains enough of his power swing to keep balls flying out of Comerica. The Tigers still haven't gotten past the first round of the playoffs though.

Talk radio callers in Detroit quickly fall out of love with the big slugger. Some even want to push him aside for a younger, cheaper former 10th round pick who has put up good numbers in all levels of minor league play. The only thing stopping the Tigers is the not so small issue of the $18 million owed to Howard in 2014 and the staggering $20 million owed in 2015. Howard responds to the criticism by showing up in Spring Training in 2014 in the best shape in years. "It is going to be a big year for Tigers fans," he proclaims.

Howard manages to stay healthy over the course of the season, but has his worst year as a pro. He lasts only 52 games with Detroit in 2015 before they bite the bullet and release Howard - freeing up first base for their hot shot prospect Julio Franco Jr. (some claim that it is, in fact, still Julio Sr. who gets the promotion). Howard signs with the struggling Portland Nationals franchise (yeah they moved and, yeah, they didn't change their name - LA Lakers/Utah Jazz kind of thing) and sees a brief spike in his numbers to close the year. But the end is near and Howard hangs them up in May of 2016.

His career is celebrated in his adopted hometown of Philadelphia as he earns his plaque on the Phillies Wall of Fame. Good friend and 6-time Phillies All-Star (and still getting key pinch at bats in 2016) Chase Utley says a few words about his former teammate at the ceremony. Utley goes on to win the game later in the evening with an RBI ground rule double in the 10th inning and Phillies fans go home happy. The only lingering question as the fans strap on their jetpacks or pile into their hovercrafts is whether Howard will some day return to Kalas and Ashburn Memorial Park to see his number 6 immortalized.