Quick disclaimer, this is not a sign Zach Parise post but a look at what it means to sign a player to an offer sheet and to get the maximum compensation of 4 first rounder and the affect it has on a franchise 9 years later.  All teams used are just for demonstrative purposes.

Here is the imaginary scenario:

It is July 4th, 2002 The Chicago Blackhawks made headlines signing star RFA player X to a long term contract from the Calgary Flames.  The Flames did not match the offer and will receive the max compensation from the Blackhawks of their next 4 first round picks in the 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006 draft.  Chicago stayed around 13-20 range for these next four years never really broke out to the elite of the NHL.  For the next 9 years/ 8 seasons player X played almost all of the 656 games those years missing no more than 5 games a year. 

2003 draft

Picks 13-20 averaged 395 games played or almost 68% of the games played by a single NHL team over those 7 seasons.

However when you remove the highest and lowest numbers of games played by those players the number creeps up to 402 games played or about 70% of the games.

2004 draft

Picks averaged about 187 games played and about 38% of the games

When removing the highest and lowest it drops to 181 games and about 37% of games

2005 draft

Picks averaged about 63 games and about 13% of the games

Remove highest and lowest and you get about 36 games and 7% of the games

2006 draft

picks averaged about 68 games and about 17% of the games played

remove high and low and the average is about 59 games and about 14% of the games

Over 9 years the 4 picks would play in a total of 713 game.  When you take away the highest and lowest number of games played you drop that total games played over those 4 players to only 678 games played.

Conclusion:

Many see the cost of 4 1st round picks for any player outside of a clear superstar as a complete overpayment.  When looking at the numbers over the 9 years after the original signing the number of games played by 4 first rounders is only 30-50 games more than player X if he does not get any serious injuries.  While there are some unaccountable factors in play, (like strength of draft), most of them end up equaling each other out.  The 2003 draft was obviously very very strong in that 13-20 range while the 2005 draft was pretty weak in that range.  In my opinion, if a rfa is signed to a max compensation deal in a vacuum, the signer is usually going to get the better of the deal.  Please leave any comments about conclusions you can draw from these numbers or other important variables that I did not take into account that could affect who really gets the better of the deal.

Hey guys, thinkin about goin to the Isle game today and wondering if anyone knows anything about the website DiscountTicketsToGo.Com.  It said on the front that they are a safe and secure website but don't know.  There selling tickets in the front row for $40-60 and upper row for $20.  I'd appreciate any info on the site wheter it's legitamite or not and I hope it is so us LI guys finally have cheap tickets to games and we can say screw you to ticketmaster.

(Sorry Dom for the language at the end just have had too many problems with Ticketmaster in the past)

I wanted to ask around if anyone had any idea on where to get Frans Nielsen shirts or jersey.  For the Long Islanders is there anything in the Islander stoor or at Ice Works.  Also if there is anything on the internet.  I heard on HF boards some people where getting stuff from Denmark with Nielsen's name but don't know if that's true.  If anyone has any idea leave a comment thanks.  Always thought Frans should get more recognition and wearing his stuff to games will help that.

I don't know how many of you get The Hockey News, but this year in their yearbook edition they had their top 50 players list.  For the second straight year I feel Mark Streit was unfairly not put on the list.  In 2 years as a #1 d-man Streit has gotten 156 games 27 goals 78 assits and 105 points along with being a plus 6.  Which is unbelievable for a guy playing on the Isles the past two years.  But this got me thinking about which Islanders do you think are top 50 players or will be.  I think Tavares, KO, and El Nino all can be top 50 players some day in the near future.

Who do you think will be future top 50 players for the Islanders, a year where they might get that top 50 spot, and the range they might get to would be nice to.

I'll admit that before the 2009-2010 season I thought very little of the guy as a real threat to score in the near future.  He finished in the top 5 on the Isles in scoring while only playing 75% on the games this season.   Before this year I didn't really see much out of him considering his career high in goals was 8 and had never played more than 50 games.  I think we all saw that when he was put with Tavares we saw what he could really do.  In his last 18 games he put up 11 goals 9 assists and 20 points along with being a plus 8.  He has good size and weight with his 6' 1" 205 lbs frame and he can be physical on the forecheck and in the corners.  I think he and Tavares can be the LI version on Stamkos and Downie, all we need is a nickname like the Stammer and the Hammer for those two.  I'm not a big supporter of not making depth chart lines but lines in which they have the best chemistry and they produce.  In those same games for Tavares he was a 7 13 and 20. I think with Tavares, Comeau can put up 25 goals or more.  I would be surprised if they stay together for a long length of time and personally I think if Nino makes the team he should be Tavares's other wing with MM.  JT will love Nino and his size, skill set, and drive and those two can be the first real dynamic duo on the Island since Trots and Bossy but saying that about a 17 and 19 year old might be stretching it.

We have heared that Moulson signed a 1 year deal with the Isles this season.  I like this deal for the Isles as we give a guy a much needed raise after a breakout year but don't make the mistake of giving a guy a long term deal after one good year.  Sound like any one to u (clear throat Yashin).  If he does take a step back this year we don't have a long term deal to worry about.  But what if, like what most of us think will happen, he gets another 30 goal 50-60 point year.  With this 1 year deal Moulson is now a UFA at the end of the year.  A lot of people are saying that if he plays well that a team will offer him bigger money and he will bolt right out of the Island.  I highly doubt that a guy who was projected as a career AHLer will leave a team that believed he can succed and was willing to give him a chance after 2 good years.  Oh u can throw in the fact that his childhood friend happens to be his linemate on this team and is also the future face of the franchise.  But nether the less its still a possibility.  So what if he starts off hot in the first half with a 20 goal 35 point start in 50 games.  Do we give him a 3 year 10 million dollar deal or more.  Or do we let him finish the year and try to get him signed before July 1st. 

I think we all know by now Kovie has signed with the Devils for an annual cap hit for 6 million a year.  Now another peice of big news here is Parise is an RFA next year.  According to Cap Geek the Devils have 48 million commited for next year and lets say the cap is 61 million.  So The Devils need a back up goalie and lets say that costs 1.5 million again.  They only have 4 dmen signed for 2011 so lets say they spend 2.5 million on those d-men one low level free agent and a young rookie.  They need 3 non Parise forwards so that could equal 5 million in total to maybe 7 million.  That brings the cap to 57-59 million.  Now I know there is no way the Devils let Zach go but maybe we can really put them in a bind.  I see ZP as a 6-7 million dollar player considering he is a 40 goal 90 points a season player on an extremlly defesive minded team and he is also an extremly good defender. 

Lets say somehow he gets to free agency, what if we offer him a 7.5-8million million dollar offer sheet.  This forces the Devils to match a cost higher than what they want.  They have too match because he is the heart and soul of the team and will really allienate their fan base and hamper their short term plan.  But if they do sign him that much the Devils are really in trouble with 6 players getting over 4.25 million and really have to scringe the bottom of the bargain barrel for role players to fit in the cap and their talent will suffer.

But if we get Parise somehow WOW.  We get a number one line of Tavares Okposo Parise or a TOP line.  Guys like the Kirill's, Brock, or someone like Lee to get more time and we can become an automatic lock for a playoff spot.  But we do have only 7 guys signed for next year and Okposo, Bailey, Schremp, Blake and Hillen need new deals so perhaps we save the money for them.

With Weight agreeing to sign again with the Isles one thing that came to mind for me was its another year we wont need to name a new captain.  I think we can all assume that this is most likely Weight's last year so we will need a new captain.  I don't think a young guy will get the C yet maybe a Streit or a Hunter will get it.  I'd chose Streit because his contract ends in 2 years after this one and I 100% love Streit and loved the signing but if he isn't putting up 50 point seasons at 35 I hope we are good enough to have other players to take his spot (Ness, Donovan, DeHart?).  Also I think the Islanders might want a young guy to take it at 23-26 and keep it for 6 years+.  So here are my choices including some big favorites, long shots, and even a controversially player who haven't played in the NHL yet.

Kyle Okposo - If I was a betting man I'd chose him.  A big physical guy that loves to go to the dirty areas use his strength along with great skill and passing ability and if he just had better luck and more experienced talent around him he could be a 30-45-75 kind of player.  Also has been praised as a real leader that can keep everyone lose but still have a fiery demeanor

John Tavares - Not my first choice because I don't always think our leading scorer should be the captian but if he does take a bigger leadership role I think he can get it.

Josh Bailey - Kind of surprised he is not a bigger player in this.  After he was drafted I heard a lot of people say how he is a future captain material.  I still think he could be but I haven't seen it yet.  Maybe better production will make him show he can be captain.

Frans Nielsen - Better chance of an A but who doesn't love the Great Dane honestly.  His poise, ability, defensive responsibility all make him a prime candidate to get some kind of leadership role on this team when it becomes not just a playoff contender but a top 4 team in the East.

Andrew Macdonald - Now here's a real darkhorse but hey I needed one.  I really like how he played and think he can easily be a top 4 d-man on a contending team and a very steady presence.  Maybe a future Mark Streit that u pare with young guys to help them out.  Future captain eh.

Nino Niederreiter - I know he hasn't played a shift yet but if we have a 2 year stop gap as a captain after Streit I can see Nino being captain.  Has a similar game to KO and we'll see how he fares over the next few years

With the season officially over I think it is the perfect time to compare two 19 year old's in their rookie season's who both wear 91.

First Steven Stamkos

Goals  Assists  Points  PIM  +/-  PP goals  GW goals  Shots  Shooting% 

23       23            46         39    -13   9              1                  181      12.7% 

Now John Tavares

Goals  Assists  Points  PIM  +/-  PP goals  GW goals  Shots  Shooting% 

24        30           54          22   -15  11             2                  186      12.9%

I didn't add this but Tavares is one of three Islanders to play in all 82 games while Stamkos played in 79 games

A few notes:  Tavares obviously had the better of the Stammer in all three main offensive stats and a very slight advantage in PP goals Game Winners and shots.  But one should know Steven played much less than Tavares esspecially early but you have to say that Stamkos had much better offensive talent that Tavares with guys like St. Louis, Malone, and Vincent.  Tavares has less polsihed offensive talent but some good young ones in Moulson, Okposo, Bailey, and even Comeau before he got hurt plus a great power play quarterback in Streit. 

Prediction for Tavares next year: I think if they get a good finisher on his wing in free agency (my Frolov senses are tingling) he can be a 30-35 goal scorer and 35-40 assists and end up with 65-75 points.  Also a good winger in the draft like Hall (with a lottery win to get an unlikely 1st overall pick) or a guy like Connoly who is 6' 2" or Nino.  But unless we trade down this will be unlikely because a guy like Fowler, Gormely, or Gudbranson will be availabe at that 5th spot and we already traded down from their.  But the best he can do is just bulk up and get stonger on his skates, if he does that and you combine that with his natural skill, hockey sense, and a year of NHL experience for him and his teammates it will just naturally result in more production. 

I don't know how many people here read John Buccigross on ESPN but I was reading his mailbags and one Ranger fan asked him how the Rangers can fix the salary cap mess and he responded by saying this

Buyouts, trades or burying players in the minors are options. The Rangers can afford to put Wade Redden in Hartford if they wish for more cap relief. They could trade Chris Drury if he chose to waive his no-trade clause. What about the Islanders? They are the perfect kind of team for Drury. Drury wouldn't have to move and the Islanders get a perfect player they could use for the last two years of his contract before they have to extend deals for younger players.

 

 I for one highly doubt the Islanders would ever bail out their most hated rival and take a guy with a huge salary cap hit.  Why would they free up space for a divison opponent to let them sign free agents the Isles might want to sign.  What are your guy's oppinion.  Would Garth Snow even pick up the phone is Sather calls to get rid of his cap crushers or would he might consider it. 

Anyone else think that this would be a good idea?  When the Soviet Union was still intact this was one of the greatest rivalries ever in international play.  A team of the top players in both the Czech Republic and Slovakia will compete against Russia in a Summit Series like event every year, two years or four doesn't matter, to see who reigns supreme. 

Some might say it won't be competitive but I beg to differ.  Before the start of the Olympics many people looked at Slovakia's and the Czechs roster and saw that if they put the two together than they would have a pretty good team.  Others might say it wouldn't make sense to put players from two countries that split apart back together but remember there are plenty of Czechs playing with Slovaks in the NHL and in Europe.  I would love to see this match up and would watch every game if it was on T.V. though considering I'm the only one that I've seen think of this idea but I pray it happens.  Feel free to disagree with me.

This is my first ever post but i have noticed something this year that really caught me by surprise

The NHL for the most part has been a league dominated by mostly European and North American players with the very rare South American (here's looking at u Regehr) and Asia (and you too Park), but has pretty much been a 75% North American 25% European roughly.   Though it looks like to me that the Islanders didn't get the memo. 

The Islanders can have up to 23 players on the active roster including scratches.  If the the Isles folowed the status quo they would have 5,6, or maybe 7 Euros on the team.  But a quick look at the team shows they are on the low end of the spectrum.  With ony 4 true Euros that makes up about 17% of the team.

If you look at the rest of the NHL there are really only 4 other teams that don't have as few European's as the Isles, the Flyers, Flames, Sharks and Blues.  Another look shows that of the 10 teams in the top third of the NHL standings (1-10) only one team, the Phoenix Coyotes have more than 6 European with 9 and they were not expected to be very good this year.  While of the bottom third (21-30) four teams have more than 6 European players.

While these stats may show that better teams have fewer Europeans I don't see that as the plan of action for these top teams considering who is on some of these teams.  Chicago (Hossa) New Jersey (Elias) Washington (Entire first line) Pittsburg (Malkin) all have Euros playing a lot of minutes and putting up big numbers.  So many teams might not have a lot of Euros but have some pretty good ones.

Now lets look at the Isles case.  The Isles are in the bottom five in Euros with 4 and two of those have missed considerable time this year with Bergy and Martinek getting hurt and then you have Nielsen missing a large chunck of time last year.  Striet has been everything the Isles could ask for playing Aucoin like minutes and being in the positives during a year when the Islanders where in the minus 70's.  So during the "rebuild" are we seeing the Islanders staying away from the Yashins, Kavasha's, and Federtenko's of the NHL.  Many say that some European's don't have the will to win as many North American kids dream on hoisting the cup from the day they put on skates while the perception is the Euro's don't all have that dream.  Or could this just be another result of the KHL rearing it's ugly head.  Are the Isles just trying to avoid another Yashin episode where the player didn't want to be here and having to watch them play in Europe counting their buyout money. 

I'm not saying that the Isles are purposely trying to not bring in Euros in fear that they may bolt at the first sign of trouble.  But as we are starting to see the Isles are really starting to develop and sign real good character guys, Anders Lee and Harmonic just to name a few.  In no way am I saying these views are correct and you can think whatever you want.  But you can't say that the facts show there are only 4 Europeans on the team and I don't think that anyone is upset about this considering how well the Isles are playing compared to last year.