In every negotiation, the bidder either (1) has a price point above which they walk away or (2) wins the bidding.

We now know the Rangers clearly had a price point for CJ. The question is why?

I believe the Rangers basically said good bye to CJ when he didn't take their offer of 4/48 to keep him off the market. It was an offer that probably was above his market value at the time. There is one strain of thought on LSB that the Rangers should've kept CJ off the market. This is silly, because it's not like CJ or his agent was thinking that they could get 4/56 or 4/60 on the market and, so, to think that the Rangers would've had to only marginally improve their offer to keep him off the market is silly. To think the Rangers should've have massively improved their offer is silly. CJ was also aware of the money offered to Lee and spent on Beltre. He clearly thought he could get more on the market, and he possibly thought that should he have a great year his performance could convince the Rangers to be competitive in the market.

There is the post Adam made about JD's discussion with the media on "core" players in which a "core" player had to show they wanted to be here long term. One way to interpret that is to say that the player is willing to stay off the market or be willing to consider the Rangers at a discount in the market. The risk to the player is that the deal could be below market if he shows serious improvement, as CJ did.

Why would the Rangers not compete with the Angels on the market and at least match their offer to CJ? The opinions on this board suggest it could be a lot of things.
(1) They do not see CJ as an impact player and think a repeat of last season is unlikely.
(2) They can not afford to keep or bring in other impact players if they have CJ at 5/75
(3) Once the Angels became involved, they believed CJ would only have accepted an offer better than the Angels' to keep CJ.
(4) As it became clear the Angels were in on Pujols, (3) became even more apparent.
(5) They truly can not pay someone other than a Lee or Beltre a competitive market value.
(6) The Rangers have some sort of dislike of CJ. His personality or style just didn't fit the Ranger way.

Discussion has centered around CJ feeling slighted by the Rangers. That's understandable. CJ truly believed in himself. He believed that he could get better than what the Rangers offered to keep him off the market, and he was right. He took that offer and trashed it with a great season.

It's clearly puzzling to CJ why the Rangers didn't compete in the market for him the way they did with Lee. It clearly, I don't want to say hurt, the more manly version of "hurt" him. I still see no reason to take this as evidence that had the Rangers matched the Angels he would be a Ranger. It's just evidence that he wanted to feel wanted. And, when the Rangers determined they didn't want him at a competitive market price (possibly after he rejected last spring's offer of a 4-yr contract beyond which the Rangers are loath to go with pitchers), they didn't see any value in stroking his ego by competing with the Angels.

What does this mean for the next impact player? Josh Hamilton. He wants to be treated fairly. We will likely very soon find out what he means by that. If he doesn't reach an agreement with the Rangers in the next couple of weeks, I think there is a great likelihood he will be shopped, particularly in this OF market. The trouble is, as Adam pointed out, if he doesn't sign with the Rangers, then that's a clear indicator to anyone who could be a trade partner that he's intent on testing the market, and that depresses his return value. Plus, he's got the baggage of drug addiction, bringing risk into the equation and depressing his value. The most obvious trade partner would be the Brewers, and the Rangers certainly aren't going to get much in the way of prospects from the Brewers. It would have to be a superstar swap to make sense for the Rangers in that case.

How can the Rangers replace CJ? Rumors are the Rangers are hot on Garza, again. Theo is not buying the prospects that JD has on the table. It makes sense for Theo to do this. He wants to see whether JD's desperation will increase as the season nears, and after the Rangers might not win the Yu bidding. I'm willing to bet the Yankees are going to win that. They're moving on from AJ. They're going to replace him with what is best available in the market. How ever it is that JD replaces CJ, it will be a shocker, it appears at this point.

The scariest thing about this situation is to wonder the following: Under the new CBA, can the Rangers compete for an impact player on the market ever again? Everyone has to throw money at free agents. The teams that can are the teams that have new stadium deals and TV deals and large markets. It seems the Rangers can only go after players whose value might be somewhat depressed because the big spenders just don't want to bid on them. In this case, the Angels wanted to spend. So did the Marlins. If CJ were an impact player on par with Lee, would the Rangers been able to have put together a competitive bid, knowing that the bidding would've been even higher than what actually occured?

I have a hard time believing that signing Pujols and CJ only "narrows the gap". The Angels have a rotation with a #4 starter that has a track record comparable or better than Colby or Holland (whichever you feel is the Rangers' new ace). The offense, yeah, it's not as good as the Rangers, but the only way it isn't drastically improved is if Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter truly are worse than last year, and while they are badly overpaid, I doubt they do worse than last year.

The argument that Pujols' contract will be an albatross (Albertross?) over it's second half doesn't seem all that good of a bet. Sure, Albert will be older, but, as Loria said, he will drive the Latin market. Revenues should be better than ever, and they have a nice downward trend in his salary in the second half of the contract.

I thought the Angels hired a newbie, no-nothing GM. This was a well played negotiation. It has extremely high revenue generation potential to offset the financial risk, and it's financial risk decreases with time after a couple of years. This is a big-market club, and I was wrong about their new GM.

I think it was well played by the Rangers' GM as well. The bottom line is that Pujols changes everything. Adding CJ to Pujols means CJ is on the division favorite team, which is one of the main things he wanted. That's even before the consideration that he is playing for his hometown team. Without Pujols in this equation, I would've raged over the Rangers' not matching a 5/77.5 contract. There's not much anyone can do when the entire competitive balance changes as drastically as this.

So, vote below on whether the Rangers are the better team. Discuss what it would take to make them clearly the better team when ST starts.

Poll

The best team in the AL West is

46%

Texas Rangers

113 votes

53%

Anaheim Angels

132 votes

245 votes | Poll has closed

Since I'm in the business of forecasting, I find the what-if's of the winter meetings much more fun than the trades that actually happen. And so, what does everyone think the Rangers roster will look like by Friday?

I believe there is 0% chance the Rangers go into the season with their current rotation. It doesn't have enough at the top. I believe Olney's reports; they make too much sense in light of the payroll:

Olney speculates that an offer from another team of $75 million or more to Wilson "may take the Rangers out of play."

Olney continues to maintain that the Rangers "are considered to be the favorites to land" Darvish.

I'm not convinced Darvish wants to land anywhere but the east coast, and it's got to be a near certainty that the Nationals and Marlins push the bidding for CJ to $90M. I think the Rangers get something solid at the Winter Meetings via trade; then let the chips fall where they may with Darvish down the road.

I feel like the safe forecast is Oswalt on a 1yr deal and a trade for Matt Thornton, say Robbie Ross and a low-level relief prospect for Thornton. My real forecast, though, is the blockbuster that I feel just makes too much sense and requires only that both teams see their chances finally dwindle to nil on signing their homegrown FA:
Greinke for Hamilton.

By next Friday, the Rangers will have Greinke, and they are going to get a reliever, and I'm going to guess that it will be Joel Hanrahan.

If the payroll target is 110-120M, the Rangers have 10-15M to play with and I see no way they sign CJ. Unless... a payroll move is made. The simplest way to clear payroll is to trade Hamilton. The right way is to trade FACE for full salary relief, but that's not possible. Slightly more possible could be trading part of Feldman's contract. The simplest way is to trade Hamilton. The simplist way to ensure enough resources to keep CJ is to trade Hamilton, whose contract is entirely tradeable with a prospect coming back to boot.

So, the poll below looks for your opinion on a few options under the constraint of 10-15M to play with this offseason:
Trade Hamilton to clear room to sign CJ (no other FA signings)
Trade Hamilton to clear room to sign a different big-name, long-term FA (no CJ signing)
Wait to see if Yu will post and the Rangers win the post, then look to trade Hamilton (no CJ)
Status quo: Don't trade Hamilton, and don't sign CJ or any big-name, multi-year FA

My feeling is that you want to wait for Yu, and I would trade Hamilton to get Yu. If the 110-120M assumption is wrong and the Rangers can have both, then great. Aside from that, I think the stability of this team is pitching and defense, and elevating the pitching staff needs a higher priority than keeping Hamilton.

Poll

Which following approach do you prefer to keep the payroll to $110-120M?

25%

Status Quo: (no CJ or any other big-name, mult-year FA)

10 votes

0%

Trade Hamilton to clear room to sign CJ

0 votes

20%

Status Quo + extend Hamilton

8 votes

5%

Trade Hamilton, sign someone other than CJ (specify who below)

2 votes

2%

If the Rangers win Yu posting, then trade Hamilton

1 votes

47%

I believe Yu's contract will be less than 10M on this year's payroll, and FO does not count the posting fee, so win Yu and keep Hamilton with a $115M payroll.

19 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed

I don't think I've seen this article on Scoreboard Daily linked on LSB. It has a long interview with CJ, and this section regarding his FA situation is something I found really interesting.

ScoreBoard: Well, one of those factors is you. I know there’s not much you can say – or even much to know at this point, but what are the chances you’ll be back next year?

C.J. Wilson: Yeah, there’s a great chance because I like it here and I’ve won here. I’ve proved that I can be a good pitcher here. There have been a lot of people over the years that have said it’s impossible to pitch here in Texas and look what we did here on the rotation – we went out and won a bunch of games and threw a bunch of innings and did stuff that no other organization can say…not even the mighty Red Sox or Yankees. They didn’t do what we did. It’s now all about figuring out how all of the guys on the team – not just me – there’s Elvis, Nelson, Josh, Ian – a lot of guys have contractual things that are coming up. I think one thing the Rangers want me to know is what they’re planning on doing with all of these other guys in the long term. So that gives me confidence that we’re going to keep winning.


ScoreBoard: What have you thought so far about your time here?

C.J. Wilson: The only thing I’ve been concerned about the last couple of years is being the best starting pitcher I can so my team can win the most games. I don’t know. It hasn’t even been 24 hours in that sense. I had a conversation with my agent today and he told me to be patient – that nothing is going to happen for a while. Some other teams might call and the Rangers might call but there’s not going to be an actual offer for a while. There won’t be a quick resolution so I guess it’s good that I have other things to do. I’m going to a wedding for a couple of days and then I’m driving home to California for a bit, I’m going to go to Japan for a bit for business and travel a bit with my race team. I’m only going to take about 10 days off and then I’ll start training again.

Jurickson Profar the Next Rangers Star?

The answer is no, but only because Martin Perez is ahead of him

From a physical standpoint, one could not find a better body type than Profar’s when considering a shortstop prospect. Yes, Profar is lean, but he has the frame of a player who could gain an additional 20 pounds or so while maintaining his agility. With teen shortstop prospects, I always look for lower half development, or lack thereof when projecting a a player’s ability to remain at the position long term. With Profar, no red flags are apparent which would lead me to believe a move off of the position just isn’t in the cards. Additionally, his present strength in relation to his frame is excellent and allows for explosive movements both offensively and defensively. With additional strength gained through physical maturity and a solid training regimen, he should become even stronger.

Here are the Defensive Runs Saved totals for the top five shortstop-second base combos in 2011:

Combo/Team/2B Runs Saved/SS Runs Saved/Total
Kinsler-Andrus/Texas/16/13/29
Ackley-Ryan/Seattle/10/18/28
Zobrist-Johnson/Tampa Bay/17/11/28
Ellis-Tulowitzki/Colorado/5/11/16
Phillips-Janish/Cincinnati/7/8/15


*Ellis also had another 5 Runs Saved while playing for Oakland this year.

Additionally, Kinsler and Andrus had the most combined Double Play Runs Saved in all of baseball with eight.

And here are the top five baserunners for 2011:

Baserunner/Baserunning Gain/Stolen Base Gain/Net Gain
Elvis Andrus/38/13/51
Ian Kinsler/28/22/50
Michael Bourn/16/33/49
Drew Stubbs/28/20/48
Chase Utley/30/14/44


This information, and more, can be found in The Bill James Handbook 2012. You can pre-order the book now by clicking here, and the book will be available in stores on November 1.

AJ Preller gives some details on how the Rangers work together and how they find all of these great prospects.

On Don Welke: Don is one of the best scouts in the game. He was Pat Gillick's right-hand man for about 20 years with the Blue Jays and Orioles. He's been with us for the last six years and has a lot to do with setting the philosophy on the scouting side and the player acquisition side. He was a huge proponent of Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Neftali Feliz. He goes after big-time impact players with plus makeup. A guy like Don Welke is a separator.

Link to Hour 3 of Dan Patrick show 10/5, talking with CJ Wilson.

DP: Did you get any sleep last night?
CJ: yeah. yeah. I got some sleep. We.. Our flight didn't get back all that late. I think it was around 10 o'clock or something, so not too bad.
DP: But how do you celebrate an ALDS title as opposed to an ALCS title?
CJ: Uhhhh... It's a little more subdued I guess. I think, You know the more times you go... You know I don't even know how the guys on Yankees do it anymore. Can you imagine like how many bottles of... whatever. But, you know in Texas we do the Ginger Ale thing for... for me and Josh cause him and I are both drug and alcohol free obviously, so ummm.... we do Ginger Ale celebration for about 10 or 15 minutes and then after that... you know... uhhhh... you know go eat lunch or go kind of scoot around and get my clothes and shower and get ready for the next thing. So.... I don't really, I don't party as hard as everybody else in... in the clubhouse. But, you know, I like to go out and dance and go to clubs or something like that.
DP: How long you been sober?
CJ:Uhhhh.... I've been straight edge my whole life. I've never had a drop of alcohol. It's uhhh... I actually have a straight edge tatoo on my ribs. It's a lifetime commitment to be drug and alcohol free.
DP:Are you curious?
CJ:No... No, not all. I mean I do so many other things, you know, whether it's race car driving or shooting machine guns or, you know, jumping of cliffs into the ocean. I do alot of other fairly extreme things that I think that that's how I choose to get my rocks off, I guess. Well, that and other stuff...
DP (laughing heartily): Speaking of which, ahhh... We just spent 10 minutes of research. Are you still dating the swimsuit model?
CJ:No... Domonique and I broke up in July. Ummm... You know, just wasn't working out and.... She's a good girl, but, you know, in the end like I had to make a selfish decision and... and make baseball more of a priority. And, it was getting to the point it was getting to be a distraction.

DP: Uh, What's the worst thing about dating a swimsuit model?
CJ: (long, long pause) Nothing. (DP, laughing and clapping) How could you... how could... As a red-blooded American, how could ever complain. You know, you have, like, when your girlfriend is gorgeous and, you know, you see, you're able to open up a magazine see her there, it's nice. It's nice to have a little reminder of, you know, he she likes me, that's cool. But... Ummm... You know, it, there's, there's no real downside to it other than maybe ever once in a while you somebody creepy, but you're like.. so.. I'm like, whatever, bye. and.. you know, so...

DP:Do you have teammates who are creepy about it?
CJ:No, you now, the creepiest teammate I ever had was Phil Nevin.
DP:Ohhh... I know Phil.
CJ:Yeah. His nickname is Philthy. So, you know, he was kind of.. um.. had a sour mouth on him. But, he would say stuff about, uh... I was actually engaged in 2005.. and, he would say stuff... I was dating a girl that was mixed ethnicity and he would call her the Pineapple. Ummm... He'd be like, errrr, so tell me about the Pineapple. What you guys, uh, getting freaky, or what.. like, is she your first. I was like, what the hell, man. (DP laughing). So, ummm... It's really the only time I've been uncomfortable, you know, cause I was a rookie at the time, and I was like 24 and he was like 38 year old dude completely ragging me in front of the team on the bus. But, other than that, no, I mean I've been, you know... it, it's, if you date pretty girls someone's always going to say something, but, you know, if you, ahhhh... you know, I, ummm... I shoot for the stars. You know, I mean, you know, you want somebody that that's got it all. You're looking for brains and, and looks, and personality, and all that stuff, and... somebody that can cook, too, that's important.
DP:Which, um, ring do you get first? uhhhh... wedding ring or a world series ring?
CJ:Oh Man. Uhhhhhmmm.... Well, I'm single right now. I just recently heard that Olivia Wild got divorced. So, I don't know, I guess I'm on the market. But, um... definitely...
DP:Wait, wait. Are you... Are you putting yourself out there, just to let her know?
CJ:(coughing laugh) Yeah. Why not? Life's short. You know what I mean. That's cool.
DP:I like that. I like it.
CJ:You know... Hey Dan, the way it is, man, you just got to go for it in life. You know, you can't be, you can't be timid. And, ummm... you know. I like to party, so whatever. It's cool.
DP:What about... if I got you Olivia Wilde but lost to... uh... you lost in the ALCS?
CJ:uuuhhhhhhhh..... Man, I don't wanna lose. You know, I don't think those.. I'll say this, I don't think those two are related. But, you know... I definitely... Baseball comes first, man. It's been my, it's been my thing since I was, since I was 8 years old... to get here, so.
DP:How would it go over if you were dating Minka Kelly going into the ALCS against the Yankees?
CJ:That would be fairly awkward, I'm sure. (DP laughing) You know.
DP:You would be getting into Jeter's head.
CJ:That's possible. You know, maybe what we can do is, we can have her come to Texas and sing the national anthem or something like that.
DP:oooohhh... I like that.
CJ:Did somebody do that? a couple years ago. They had like... someone's ex-girlfriend sing the national anthem, like in a different city.
DP:Aaaahhhmm.... Yesss. Yes. uhhhh... Fritzy... Do you remember that?
Fritzy: I should know all about that.
CJ:Was it the Yankees and something about Beckett? or, was it ummm... somebody with the Red Sox, maybe... It was one of the those Northeast teams.
DP:Yes. Yes. I remember. You know what, we'll uh.. I'll get my crack staff on it. uh.. here in a moment.
CJ:OK. Have, have somebody tweet me, and, and, so I can, so I can...
DP:He's CJ Wilson, Texas Rangers pitcher joining us. You lose Game 1 and then you gotta sit. What's that feeling like, knowing, you know, the chances are maybe I get to pitch Game 5 if we get to Game 5?
CJ:Well, you know, the thing is, like, I have so much confidence in our team that I looked at it as kind of a fluke. The way everybody acted after the game, it was sort of like a wake up call. I guess everyone was like, whoa, OK, ummm... we really have to like, you know, turn it on now. Cause then, we only got two hits that game. Josh got two hits, and nobody else, you know, put any, put any authority on the ball. But... umm...
DP:Well, that kid's good. Matt, Matt Moore's good.
CJ:Yeah. He's got great stuff, man. He's really fluid. He, he's got, he's got kind of like the Cole Hammels uh... delivery, you know, and... ummmm... his fast, he's throwing 96 mph with a good curveball, so... you know, he's, he's, he's got a really bright future ahead of him, if, if he can stay healthy. You know, I think the Rays, the Rays are on to something with whatever process they're using to get these guys, cause they continually have some new phenom arm come up and, and strike people out.
DP:Yeah, and
CJ:pretty impressive.
DP:and, Hellickson they got too. They got a pretty good young staff. Ya, McLovin' you got the answer for CJ.
McLovin:Yes. The Indians had Danielle Peck, Josh Beckett's ex-girlfriend, sing in 2007. (lots of laughing)
CJ:There you go.

DP:I like that. (chuckling) Ummm... Beltre goes for three, the uh three-peat last night. Uhh...
CJ:Triple Facial (DP chuckling) It was amazing. It was awesome.

DP:(laughing) Any problem, ok, any... a guy's hit two homeruns off of you. Any problem, he's coming up swinging for a third home run?
CJ:Uuuhhhhhh.... yeah, I mean, yeah, I might accidentally... (DP laughing) finger quotes... throw a cutter at his front knee or something like that, I don't know. You don't wanna give up, you don't wanna give up three home runs to the same dude. I mean, I gave up two home runs to the same dude.. uhhh.. in Game 1, and I was like I don't even know if it's happened to me before. I can't even... I don't even know, even in, you know, college or anything like that. I don't know if I've ever given up two home runs to the same guy. So...
DP:But you have to respect the guy. If he's hit two off of you and he comes to the plate.
CJ:Yeahhhh. I mean, hey, like there's alot of different ways to look at it, but, ummm... but, you know, like, I made a couple of bad pitches... uh.. he's hot... (DP chuckling) ummm... I made a couple of bad pitches, and he's hot (DP laughing)... ummm... you know that's possible to, and then, like, oh maybe I just cooled him off for the rest of the series. You know that's the other way of looking at it, like... yeah, statistically speaking, now that guys gonna go like 0-for-11, because, like, he just drained his, his well, right there.
DP:Uhhh... What did you learn from last year, do you think, for this team that'll help you this year in the post season?
CJ:Uhhh.. I think a lot of us kind of know what to prepare for, you know. The, the unknown of the playoffs is, like you watch it on TV you don't see alot of the stuff that goes into it, but it's really alot more of a circus than people understand. I mean... during the season Texas is a very normal media market. We'll have 6-8 people in the locker room, asking questions with cameras, or whatever, you know, after the game. In the playoffs, you'll have like 50, 50 people in the first round, 100 in the second round, and, like, 200 in the third round. ahh.. in the World Series, or whatever. So, now that we're kind of ready for that I think we, we have a better method for staying within our routine, to doing normal stuff, making it normal, because you have to... it's just baseball, so you have to make it, you know, you have to peel away the hype, and that really annoying song they play on Fox and TBS... ummm... You just gotta focus on who your opponent is and how to beat them.
DP:Uh.. if I.. If you could switch places with Tony Romo, sould you?
CJ:No, I wouldn't want to. I don't even like football. um... DP:But the pressure... Could you deal with the pressure that he faces every single game. People either love him or hate him.
CJ:It's the same thing as a closer, you know, or as a, as a starting pitcher, I think, I could deal with it, but, like I said, I'm begin straight up, I don't even watch football. I guess, for me, not even interesting. I like, I like racing on some days. that's that's what I do. So... um... I like hockey, I like soccer, I like basketball, I just.. I just don't feel like football is a sport for me. Plus, the thing is, those dudes get killed. Like he's out there, you know, he's out there with frickin' broken ribs and a punctured lung and people are like bagging on him. I'm like, hey guys remember last week when he was a hero for playing through a punctured lung. Now you hate him. (DP chuckling "I know") I mean, where's the... football.... the people, they have such a big, you know... inflection of up and down. It's like, they don't even have an even keel at all. And, baseball is much more even keeled, because, it's more games, you know... you might win 3, lose 2, but you're not expecting anyone to go 16 and 0.

DP:Yeah. Free agency... uh.. What did you learn from Cliff Lee last year that might help you?
CJ:uhhhh... The biggest thing is, you know, that, like, it's going to take care of itself. I've been around other guys, like, when I was around, ummmm... I guess, Carlos Lee or Gary Matthews or even Mark Teixeira when he was with us. And, like, those guys were alot more contract-focused at some, at some point than Cliff was. Cliff was more performance focused. And I think, it, you know, it enabled him to just let loose and play the game. And, that's the thing for me, is I get, I've, literally, since the first day of spring training, I've gotten the question every day, what are you gonna do, where do you wanna go, how much money do you want, and that kind of stuff, and I just said the same thing... hey man, I have to play well, and if I play well, everything will work itself out. And, that's really what I believe.

DP:Well, good luck, uhhh... with the playoffs, and more importantly, with Olivia Wilde
CJ:Hey, well, you know, I mean, life's, life's short, like I said. DP:It's out there. It's out there. And, I'll be a wingman for you. I'll try to make dreams come true for you, CJ.
CJ:Where are you? Connecticut? Right now? er....
DP:Yeah. I can slip into New York and all of a sudden... I.. you know.. I'm there for you, I just want you to know. I'm a good setup man.
CJ:Well, you know... we'll, we'll work on that then. We'll come up with an idea... we'll, we'll come up with something.
DP:Alright. uh... But, the Minka Kelly thing, I'd stay away from that. Let's go Olivia Wilde, alright.
CJ:I don't really want to cross over with a lot of baseball players. that's, that's not a good... that's not a good thing (DP laughing). I remember Shawn Avery has this sort of claim of everyone going after his sloppy seconds, so I don't really want to have that kind of situation, you know (DP chuckling), coming into, coming into the baseball locker rooms at all.
DP:Alright. Well good luck, uh, next, next round.
CJ:Alright, thanks man.
DP:Alright. CJ Wilson

JC's tweets

9/23

Ronald Guzman putting on a nice show in batting practice. Impressive raw power.

Wilmer Font, working his way back from TJ surgery, is throwing a simulated game on a back field.

Gunman's first at-bat: line drive single. Mazara's first: strikeout looking.

Guzman works count full and walks in his second plate appearance. Masada frozen on a curve for another K. Guzman really impressive so far.

The Rangers took the huge leg kick out of Mazara's swing so he may be a little slower to come around.

Denny Peralta, a 6-foot-4 righty, was 89-94 mph in his first inning back from Tommy John. He was an upper-80s feel guy before surgery.

9/24

Good first inning for Luke Jackson. Fastball 91-95 mph. Two K's on good downer curveball. Changeup is inconsistent but flashes plus.

#Rangers prospect David Perez really struggling w/ mechs and control, working 90-91(93). Flying open and jerking head. Very loose arm

David Perez was phenomenal in extended spring, getting downhill and commanding 92-96 mph velo. Mechanics have been a big issue since, though

9/26

Hearing good things about Rangers 8th rd pick Kyle Hendricks so far. Dartmouth product throws strikes w/ 90-94 mph fastball and plus change.

RHP Carlos Melo at 93-96 mph for the second consecutive outing. Throwing more strikes. Saw him in Spokane at 90-93 throwing no strikes.

Melo still has a few issues but today was easily the best stuff I've seen out of him.

Drew Robinson with a 400-plus foot HR to CF. Had a great extended spring, struggled big in Spokane, and off to a good start at instructs.

Jordan Akins showing definite development in BP. When asked to go the other way, he can do it with authority. It's looking easier for him.

Ronald Guzman and Jordan Akins are knocking the hell out of the ball going back-to-back in BP. Fun to watch.

Can definitely see plus defensive projection in young SS Luis Marte. Smooth actions, good range, strong arm.

Guzman single up the middle and Akins follows with a two-run homer to left-center.

Akins takes a fastball down and in for a double down the left field line and steals third two pitches later. Impressive day for him.

9/27

The Royals' Cheslor Cuthbert and Rangers' Christian Villanueva taking infield at 3B before the advanced instructs game. That's a nice duo.

Nice first inning of work for lefty Will Lamb, the Rangers' second round pick. Working 91-94 mph with a good hard slurve between 77 and 83.

Jurickson Profar with singles in each of his first two at-bats. One from the left and one from the right.

Rough inning for Fabio Castillo with mechanics and fastball all over the place at 91-94 mph. Disappointing year for the 40-man roster guy.

A couple nice at-bats from Engel Beltre. Worked count full from 0-2 and hustled out an opposite-field double then drew a walk.

Interesting inning for Ryan Rodebaugh. Two first-pitch outs, a four-pitch walk, and a pickoff. Out of the inning after throwing two strikes.

Inconsistent inning from Francisco Mendoza but fastball was up to 96 mph, slider up to 89. He was dominant late in the season with Hickory.

Matt West strikes out the side around two singles. Sat 94-95 mph, reached 97. All three K's on the 79-81 mph curve with two-plane break.

West has easy heat, and he often sat at 95-97 this year. The breaking ball command was extremely impressive.

9/28

Impressive raw power in batting practice from 3B Smerling Lantigua today. He was an under the radar Dominican Summer League guy.

Ryan Strausborger playing second base in instructs game today. Was a plus CF this year but being groomed as a super-utility type.

Roman Mendez at 92-95 for second straight outing. SL looks like a future plus pitch with late bite. Change is a work in progress but flashes

Rangers instructs lineup currently found Akins, Alfaro, Guzman, Mazara. Alfaro is 2-for-2 with a pair of singles.

Kellin Deglan has been scuffling, but he just jumped on a fastball and crushed it way out to RF. Swing still a bit long but has raw power.

3-for-3 with 3 singles for Alfaro. One infield to 3B and two hard grounders - one up the middle and one to right. And now doubled off 1st.

9/29

Here's some video of OF Jordan Akins taking batting practice from yesterday – http://vimeo.com/29786439

Here's a video of infielder Nick Urbanus taking batting practice from yesterday. He's been impressive so far – http://vimeo.com/29788125

Lots of 99 mph fastballs from Carlos Melo today. Sitting 96-99 so far.

The positive on Melo: 96-99 with late life. The negative: four walks in that inning. At least the stuff is there now, though.

Francisco Mendoza's 87-90 mph slider is one of the better breaking balls in the system. Sharp break with late tilt. Commands it pretty well.

9/30

almost definitely either AZL or Spokane. RT @OrMoyal: @LoneStarDugout Any possibility Guzman is on a stateside roster next year?

Heard that Jurickson Profar just helped turn a triple play in the advanced instructs game. Luckily I'm not there. #playoffs.

On second thought that advanced instructs game sounds nice. #shoppach'd

10/2

Here's a video of Ronald Guzman taking batting practice at instructs – http://vimeo.com/29916090

Featuring and interviewing 19-year-old infielder Nick Urbanus, who has impressed at instructs – http://bit.ly/qXnFe2

Here's a video of a Nomar Mazara at-bat. It's just a few pitches (and a K), but you can at least see him – http://vimeo.com/29917341

@Tex2044 Raw. Good athlete but raw. Struggled to pick up balls and the arm didn't flash plus. He's going to take some time across the board. --> @LoneStarDugout How did Mazara look moving in the OF?

@MarkCMoore @Tex2044 Perhaps. He can definitely play it better than RF now. He sees the ball better off the bat and gets better reads in CF. --> @Tex2044 @LoneStarDugout Speaking of Akins ... he's an absolute physical specimen. Can he stick in CF?

Going over my notes from instructs...in Francisco Mendoza's last game, he threw a 90 mph slider two pitches after a 91 mph fastball.

JP's tweets

9/24

Well hello, Arizona. It's good to see that you are still ridiculously warm and bland. I feel my #want slipping away by the second.

My new favorite prospect, Francisco Lindor, just made a major league play at short, diving to 3B side to snag line drive in air.

9/26

Arizona Fall Instructional League Beer Update: Jack y coke. #want

#Rangers RHP Carlos Melo showing nasty stuff today; he just hit 99 on the gun. Been sitting 93-96 w/ some natural weight.

#Rangers prospect Ronald Guzman with one of the more remarkable BP displays in recent back field memory. Great hands and easy power. #want

After a day of Ronald Guzman viewing, I'm tempted to say something sensational like Guzman is the best 16 y/o hitter I've ever seen.

Guzman: top 5 prospect in system. RT @wfaasports: @ProfessorParks Tempted.. but are you saying it? The people need something to obsess over!

@wfaasports The bat is crazy fast; the hands are special.

@Tex2044 I saw Alfaro at 16. Guzman is a more gifted hitter

@basejaw I've seen Mazara; leg kick gone but power still there. Not on same level as Guzman, though.

@Tex2044 @basejaw Mazara clearly has elite power potential, but Guzman isn't a slouch in that dept and a better all-around hitter.

@Tex2044 Yeah. It's early, but Akins looks awesome. Marte as well.

9/27

Breaking News: #Rangers uber-prospect Jurickson Profar lines out to LF on 3-0 count and greatly disappoints the ten people in attendance.

9/28

Tasked w/ following Akins and Guzman in cage, Dutch prospect Nick Urbanus won the day showing plus bat speed and pop to pull-side.

#TheLegend Jorge Alfaro with a 4.16 to 1B on infield single. That's #want. He will probably go yard next AB. #Rangers

9/29

@TreyCumby Nothing like Telis. Low walk rates, but exceptionally high ceiling, w/ 80 arm and 70 future power. Telis is all empty contact

9/30

#Rangers FIL Notes (9/27-29): texasfarmreview.com/fall-instructi… featuring, Ronald Guzman, Luis Marte, Matt West, Victor Payano, etc

@lonestarball Yes. Guzman is even more impressive. It's not just his easy power, it's his easy swing and easy contact to all fields. --> From @ProfessorParks "I will continue to claim that Guzman is the most impressive 16 year-old prospect I’ve ever seen," -- even #theLegend?

Matt Moore: Good

10/1

After a week+ of FIL action, I'm on my way back to NYC. Sucks. I actually enjoy spending 5 hours a day in 100+ degrees watching baseball

@tjco1006 Thanks. Lindor was impressive; Ronald Guzman is legit; saw Carlos Melo hit 99 several times; Jordan Akins is developing --> @ProfessorParks did u see anyone that really surprised you in AZ? btw ur moneyball poster review was pulitzer worthy. Awesome.

Going over pitch charts while waiting to takeoff. The old lady to my left asked about Moneyball. I told her the poster was pretty cool.

Poll

Is this a good idea?

87%

Yes

63 votes

4%

No

3 votes

8%

Yes/No answers suck

6 votes

72 votes | Poll has closed

So, CD might go off for 30 HR some year. Hunter could post a 180 IP 3.9 ERA season. But, look at the trade ammo the Rangers have going into the offseason.

Round Rock: Old Man Hurley, Perez, Ramirez, mErlin, Wieland

Frisco: Loux, Grimm, Ross, MDLS, Bleier

MB: Bell, Jackson, Mendez, Buckel, Tepesch

Dads: Perez, Payano, Lamb, Williams, Thompson

Hard to guess the lower affiliate rotations. Even the upper levels are hard to predict. Rangers might prefer to have Scheppers in the AAA rotation. Maybe they will feel comfortable pushing Tepesch and Bell to AA. Font will be back, but he probably start in extended.

Nevertheless, plenty there to obtain untouchables like Kershaw or Felix.

Rangers: CJ, Ogando, Holland, Harrison, Feliz is looking stout as well.

Continue reading this post »

This is a minors thread to open a discussion on draft philosophies stemming from "baseball wisdom" Buck Showalter uses in the draft as well as, at the suggestion of shroom, to accommodate the onslaught of posts tonight as we follow David (the Goliath pitcher), MLDS, and Wieland.

6/30
SPO-8:30- Alvarez
HIC-6:00- Thompson
MYR-6:00- Loux
FRS-7:00- Snyder -- wha?
RRE-7:00- Feldman
AZRL-pm- Parra?

6/29 -- Mavare Mania begins!
SPO-8:30- S Perez
HIC-4-DH- Tepsh/Luke
MYR-6:00- Grimm
FRS-7:00 ASG
RRE- Off
AZRL-pm- Mavare?

6/28 -- Tepesch and Ramirez continue solid development.
AZL - ADLS?
SPO - Payano
HIC - Tepesch, postponed
MYR - Boscan
FRS - off
RRE - Ramirez

6/27 -- Wieland off to a nice start in AA.
SPO-8:15- D Perez
HIC-6:00- Mendez
MYR-6:00- Gomez
FRS-7:00- Wieland
RRE-7:00- McClung Chris Davis fireworks show
AZRL-pm- Blackwell?

Late last week, I heard Tim Kurkjian on a radio show speak about blue eyes in the context of Buck Showalter's draft rules of thumb. They are:
(1) Do not draft guys with 10 to 2 feet (meaning pointed out); look for pigeon toe guys
(2) Do not draft 18-yo with full grown beards; they won't grow anymore
(3) Be careful of blue-eyed guys (they didn't say why)


Such is the sage advice from wisened, old baseball men.

5/10
9p, Neil "He's better than Teheran" Ramirez
26.2 IP | 15 H | 7 R | 6 ER | 10 BB | 30 SO | 10.13 K/9 | 3.38 BB/9 | 77.2% LOB% | 2.03 ERA | 2.68 FIP
11a, Martin "He's still only 20" Perez
27 IP | 24 H | 10 R | 10 ER | 14 BB | 28 SO | 9.33 K/9 | 4.67 BB/9 | 77.1% LOB% | 3.33 ERA | 3.27 FIP
6p, Joseph "He's one of Nolan's favorites" Wieland
31 IP | 28 H | 7 R | 7 ER | 3 BB | 41 SO | 11.9 K/9 | 0.87 BB/9 | 86.1% LOB% | 2.03 ERA | 1.88 FIP
6p, Roman "Please, please turn into Feliz" Mendez
31.1 IP | 27 H | 7 R | 6 ER | 10 BB | 30 SO | 8.62 K/9 | 2.87 BB/9 | 85.5% LOB% | 1.72 ERA | 2.94 FIP

Wieland is the Carolina League May Pitcher of the Week for May 2-8.

Wieland rides to the Pelicans' second Pitcher of the Week award of 2011, following teammate Robbie Erlin's nod last week, on the strength of a jaw-dropping performance at Potomac on May 4. Over the course of six shutout innings, Wieland allowed two infield hits and no runs while not walking a man and striking out 13 Nationals batters. His 13 Ks came one shy of tying the franchise record, set by Kyle Davies at Kinston on June 12, 2004 and matched last May 31 at Frederick by phenom Julio Teheran, and equaled the Pelicans' only other 13-strikeout performance, that of Tommy Hanson on April 4, 2008 at Wilmington. Impressively enough, Joe's performance against Potomac wasn't even a career best. The righty struck out 14 last August third against Visalia while a member of the Bakersfield Blaze, last year's Class A Advanced affiliate of the Rangers.

5/11
6p, Rojas
5p, Game 1, Kelly
5p, Game 2, Wieland
9p, Jackson

Poll

Who would you rather the Mavericks play?

46%

Thunder

35 votes

53%

Grizzlies

41 votes

76 votes | Poll has closed

The stars are aligned on the Rangers' farm. I expect a lot of chatter today, so a new thread makes sense. And, I feel like making Mighty Joe Wieland an honorary member of this historic day after his dominant performance last night: 6IP, 13K, 0BB, 2H (infield singles; one a wind-blown popup).

Shroom props

5/5
High Noon, Ramirez, 5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K, 2 R
7p, Perez, 4 IP, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 K,3 R
6p, Kelly, 4 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 R
6p, Mendez, 6 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K, 1 R

5/6
6p, Tepesch Rojas , 6 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 R
6p, Erlin, 7 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 8 K, 1 R
7p, Brigham, 5 IP of perfect ball, 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K, 3 R
7p, "not Luke" Jackson, 6 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K, 3 R

5/7
6p, Grimm, 6 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 4 R
5p, Loux, 6 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 7 K, 3 R
7p, MDLS, 5 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 9 K, 4 R
7p, "Tom" Hankins, 4.2 IP, 10 H, 1 BB, 3 K, 6 R

5/8 Do something nice for your mom!
3p, Thompson
3p, Ross
2p, Pimentel
1p, McClung

5/9, Myrtle Beach off 6p, Melo 6:30p, Bleier High Noon, Hunter Rehab

Probably should start a new thread tomorrow with the start of the next Perez/Ramirez/Mendez/Weiland cycle.

Poll

Sexiest?

28%

Ramirez in AAA

12 votes

33%

Mavs up 3-0 on Lakers

14 votes

4%

Wieland 41:3 K:BB

2 votes

11%

Erlin 40:4 K:BB

5 votes

2%

Ogando in the rotation

1 votes

4%

Olt

2 votes

4%

CW19 picking Michael Kelly in his first Mock Draft

2 votes

2%

Leonys Martin

1 votes

7%

Alfaro

3 votes

0%

Other (specify below)

0 votes

42 votes | Poll has closed

Not surprisingly, Professor Parks with a great breakdown of the Feliz situation. Let's discuss the situation here, as the morning thread often gets fouled.

I still don't see this move to the rotation happening this year. I could very easily see the development of the cutter ninth-inning role, permitting a move to the rotation next year. The oddest situation that I could imagine happening, though not at all likely, is to see Feliz starting the year in the rotation and reclaiming his closer position when Webb is ready. This would give Feliz some extended development time and build his innings for next year, even though it's hard to imagine he would be more effective than a typical 5th starter that might be as good as the options already available for the 5th spot.

Poll

Tell us what role you would have for Feliz when ST breaks.

21%

Closer

30 votes

6%

Rotation with a move to Closer when Webb is ready

9 votes

69%

Rotation

96 votes

2%

Other, specify below

3 votes

138 votes | Poll has closed

From John Dewan's stat of the week...

Each year we give the Flat Bat Award to baseball's best bunter, and it's time to hand out the 2010 award. First, let's look at the best bunters in sacrifice situations. Here are the best sacrifice bunters in baseball for 2010, listed in order of most sacrifices:

2010 Sacrifice Hit Leaders
Player Successful Sacrifices Sacrifice Attempts Percentage
Clayton Kershaw, LAD 18 18 100%
Elvis Andrus, TEX 17 17 100%
Chone Figgins, SEA 17 19 89%
Ryan Dempster, CHC 16 17 94%
Nyjer Morgan, WAS 15 15 100%
Juan Pierre, CWS 15 21 71%


Now we have the best at bunting for hits, listed in order of most bunt hits in 2010. As you can see, the most successful bunters have a very high average when bunting for a hit. Of the 23 players who attempted at least 10 bunt base hits in 2010, their combined average on bunts was .490.

2010 Bunt Hit Leaders
Player, Team Successful Bunt Hits Bunt Hit Attempts Average
Erick Aybar, LAA 18 35 .514
Julio Borbon, TEX 17 30 .567
Elvis Andrus, TEX 12 18 .667
Angel Pagan, NYM 12 18 .667
Gregor Blanco, KC/ATL 12 17 .706


Last year's Flat Bat award winner Erick Aybar again led the league with 18 bunt hits (in 35 attempts). Rangers rookie Julio Borbon gave Aybar a run for his money with 17 bunts hits. However, Aybar was also 11 for 13 in sac bunt attempts, giving him an edge over Borbon (8 for 11).

Congratulations to Erick Aybar for successfully defending his Flat Bat title!

What would you like the Rangers to do with their 3B/DH situation if they do sign Beltre? It almost sounds like it would be an accident if they did, but, still, what type of roster shuffling could you live with to accommodate it?

FWIW, Newberg did find a report that the Rangers have signed Beltre, but there it appears to be a Dominican version of incarceratedbob.

The following has turned up this morning on the Pio Deportes website out of the Dominican Republic:

· "Según reporta José Luís Montilla del portal Piodeportes.com, el antesalista Dominicano Adrian Beltré alcanzo un acuerdo por 96 millones y seis años con los Rangers de Texas, Según fuente la cual se mantendrá en el anonimato, la firma se llevó a cabo cerca de la madrugada de hoy. La posible firma se estará haciendo oficial hasta tanto no se complete el examen de rigor (Fisico)."

· Very roughly translated by Google: "According to reports [from] José Luis Montilla [of] Piodeportes.com portal, Dominican third baseman Adrian Beltre reached an agreement [for] $96 million over six years with the Texas Rangers, [according to] sources [who wish to] remain anonymous. The signing took place around dawn today. The [club] may be [waiting to make it] official until it has completed the review of rigor (Physical)."

· Nobody else anywhere appears to have this note, and in fact there are stories stateside this morning suggesting that the Angels could be the final interested suitor standing.

LINK

Poll

What do you want the Rangers to do with FACE if they sign Beltre?

75%

DH, backup UIF

134 votes

8%

Trade him but pick up part no more than half of his salary

16 votes

3%

Trade him no matter how much salary the Rangers need to pick up and how little prospect they get in return

6 votes

10%

Send him to the minors to convert him to a relief pitcher or catcher

18 votes

2%

Something else (specify below)

4 votes

178 votes | Poll has closed

Moore wanted nothing more or less than ML-ready, up-the-middle players. Not exactly the Rangers strength, unless Elvis is in the conversation. I think I would've been supportive of such a trade, but only if I had known that the Rangers would've had to have beaten the Nats/Brewers offers (Espinosa or Escobar).

I'm certain we can all come up with alternatives at SS, and, so, I've put a couple of plausible ideas in a poll. Let's dump any other alternatives that folks can imagine in the comments.

Poll

What would've been an acceptable alternative to Elvis at SS in order to obtain Greinke?

5%

Sign Beltre (something ugly like 5/80), move FACE to SS

12 votes

0%

Sign Tejada to play 3B, move FACE to SS

0 votes

5%

Trade for Bartlett (Padres are shipping two relievers to Rays for him)

12 votes

9%

Sign either Edgar Renteria, Nick Punto, or Orlando Cabrera to play SS

20 votes

2%

Make Cristian Guzman the starting SS

6 votes

76%

None of the above

160 votes

210 votes | Poll has closed

This has been a really interesting pre-winter meetings. The Jeter bashing, Lee speculation, Dunn, Werth, Jorge de la Rosa, Gonzalez trade, Victor Martinez, Benoit, Beltre to the A's or not....

But, now, the Jays have traded Shaun Marcum, bringing back a well regarded prospect in Brett Lawrie. That means they can put two top-50 prospects, Lawrie and Drabek, on the table for Greinke with a third very nice prospect as well in one of Zach Stewart, Carlos Perez, or JP Arencibia.

It seems more and more likely that Holland and Perez will have to be in the deal for Greinke, and Lee will get a 6th year for the Rangers, if they are going to become Rangers. This is like being on a slow-drip of World Series adrenaline.

Edit: Josh Willingham for Rangers DH!

Edit: Plus Toronto could have upto 8 1st and supplemental 1st round picks. I don't think they'll be shy about selling the farm for Greinke.

Put your links to the best 2010 minor league action below.

Profar makes a diving play on Aug 11 against Yakima.

Short-A: Spokane 3, at Yakima 11 Record: 8-6 tied for 1st

Ben Henry (4.93 ERA) allowed six runs in 3.2 innings on nine hits, two walks, and three strikeouts. Two days after throwing 4.1 innings, Juan Grullon allowed an unearned run on his own error in 1.2 innings.

Jared Hoying (.313/.364/.522) went 2-4 with a double, walk, and 7th homer. 3B Mike Olt (.269/.383/.429) walked twice, singled, and stole his 5th base. DH Andrew Clark, 1B Clark Murphy, and CF Jake Skole (.254/.316/.361) all had two hits. One of Skole’s was a double.

So, I know nothing about Xbox and a little about WII. I'm thinking one of these two things will be a gift from Santa to the kids. I am clueless about the differences between the two. Help me.

Apparently, movies and some TV can be downloaded through Xbox. But do you need cable TV to do this?

BTW, it makes no sense to trade for Greinke if the Rangers don't sign Lee, unless the extend Greinke with some of the money earmarked for Lee.

This has been my favorite topic for about 3 years. I can't imagine Greinke starting the season as a Royal, and Newberg nicely runs down the many reasons why.

I'm sure this has come up in a number of different threads, and alot of mock trade proposals have been posted, but let's pool them all under this fanpost for now. To me, the question is whether Greinke will cost 1 or 2 of the top pitching prospects, which are Holland, Scheppers, and Perez. Newberg seems to think it will cost 2 in his report today (11/17):

How would you feel about: (1) Derek Holland; (2) Martin Perez; and (3-4) either Jurickson Profar and Craig Gentry, or Leury Garcia and Engel Beltre, for Greinke and out-of-options backup outfielder Gregor Blanco?

The latest from Moore (via Stark) on what it would take is

Well, they're serious about listening. But according to clubs that have spoken with them, they're telling bidders up front that (A) they would need to "win" the deal, (B) they would have to get the kind of four-for-one haul the Rangers got for Mark Teixeira to pull the trigger, (C) they need a bunch of "front-line, winning, quality players" in return, and (D) at least one of those players has to be a pitcher capable of turning into the next Zack Greinke in a couple of years. So unless a team like Texas were to lose Cliff Lee and decide it needs to trade for Greinke at all costs, we're betting this doesn't happen -- not this winter, anyway.

An example of a "winning-type" player in Moore's view: Jeff Francoeur.

So, the next Greinke... Will that be Perez, Holland, or Scheppers? And, aside from those three, what other players would Moore view as "winning players"? Engel Beltre?

I like Jamey's idea of offering something that complements the core they have on the way for 2012. I think 2 of the 3 top pitching prospects is too much to absorb. My sense is that much of the baseball world sees Scheppers as a bigger risk than perhaps the Rangers do.

But, the Rangers have to make this trade. They have 3-4 years of Hamilton, Cruz, Kinsler, Murphy at their peak. It's not clear whether there exists a core of positional players within the organization upon which a reasonable hope can be placed to extend the window (Moreland, Davis, Beltre seem to be the internal options, but many, many questions abound with those three). If they bring in Victor Martinez, he certainly isn't going to extend that window beyond 3-4 years. It's time to go for broke and hope that 3-4 year period produces 2-4 more World Series trips.

The biggest package I could imagine would be: Perez or Holland. Beltre or Borbon. Hunter. an advanced lower-level pitcher (Ross, Erlin, Font, Wieland). a low-level middle infielder or 3B, excluding Olt and Profar (Leury, Edwin Garcia, Villanueva, Chirino, Mendonca, ).

A Holland-Beltre-Hunter lead would give the Royals a little of everything -- the potential for the next Greinke (Holland might not be a Cy Young but he could grow into a staff leader), an immediate rotation contributor in Hunter, and a complementary piece to add to their core at AA. Beltre, in that deal, might be the biggest loss as he could help extend that window of a stout offense beyond 3-4 years, and the Rangers are thin on that type of player.

How do the Rangers keep Hamilton healthy if the Royals want Borbon rather than Beltre? Please, God, make Gentry into something more than he is! Melky is about the best the FA market has to offer, which could be a bridge to the Engel Era if he can be signed to a one-year deal with an option year.

So, does Holland-Beltre-Hunter-Wieland-Villanueva get it done? That package really only contains two WOW pieces. It's better than the Blue Jays got for Halladay. It's comparable if not better than the Teixeira trade, which basically had Salts-Harrison with Elvis-Feliz as highly talented but far away pieces. Holland+Hunter > Salts+Harrison. So, yeah, the prime players are better and the secondary players are not as a stellar, and I think it's a better package

Is Holland-Beltre-Hunter-Wieland-Villanueva too much? Well, Hunter is replaceable from within, very likely. Greinke takes Holland's spot. Beltre is harder to replace as discussed above. Wieland and Villanueva, I like them and all, but over the next 2-4 years the Rangers will sign similarly talented players. So, I think the Rangers can absorb this package this year as well as beyond. Again, Beltre is the one that bothers me most in that deal.

I hope it doesn't take Holland-Beltre-Hunter-Wieland-Villanueva to get Greinke, but I think the Rangers could do that. If we're lucky it's something like Holland-Hunter-Stoneburner-Wieland or Perez-Beltre-Wieland-Erlin (which, IMO, is better than the Roy Halladay package). What about Newberg's package, meaning the discussion of 2 versus 1 of the top 3 pitching prospects? Is it easier to absorb the loss of Holland-Perez versus Holland-Beltre or Perez-Holland versus Perez-Beltre? Though I see Beltre as the hardest piece to let go in my proposal, I still prefer trading him to Perez. Keep the pitching pipeline as full as possible, and use it to bring in more Engel Beltre's.

Would I support Newberg's package if it happened. Oh yeah, but put me down for Holland-Beltre-Hunter-Wieland as what I hope gets it done. I'd much rather the Rangers give up the potential for one front-end rotation and two back-end rotation guys rather than two front-end rotation guys.

Miguel Cabrera, American League MVP? August 20, 2010 As we approach September, it’s time to start considering MVP candidates. In the American League, Miguel Cabrera is a popular choice because of his offensive production this year. Here are Cabrera's triple-crown stats, compared to a couple of other MVP candidate

 

American League MVP Candidates Player AVG HR RBI

Miguel Cabrera .340 31 100

Josh Hamilton .353 26 81

Robinson Cano .325 24 78

 

Looking at this, most people would give the nod to Cabrera. But let's go a little deeper. As you might guess, we want to look at their defense. Miguel Cabrera is a defensive liability. He has cost his team nine runs defensively, based on the Defensive Runs Saved system we devised. Josh Hamilton has split time between left field and center field and has been an average outfielder, saving two runs with his defense. Robinson Cano’s defense at second base has been quite good having saved 14 runs so far this year.

But let's go still deeper. One more element we need to consider is the importance of the defensive position they play. A middle infielder is far more important defensively than a first baseman. We have a way to measure this, called the positional adjustment, and in this case we credit Cano with 23 runs for playing second base compared to nine runs for Miguel. Now let’s put it all together. Instead of using a player’s triple-crown stats, a more complete way to measure overall offensive production is Runs Created, Bill James’ estimate of the number of a team’s runs created by each individual hitter. Stolen base ability is included in Runs Created, but it doesn’t measure running on the basepaths other than stolen bases. We have a metric called Baserunning Runs which takes into account how often a baserunner takes an extra base on hits, how often he is thrown out, how often he advances on wild pitches and passed balls, scores on a sacrifice fly, etc. We can add up a player’s offensive Runs Created, Baserunning Runs, Defensive Runs Saved, and the positional adjustment to get a complete picture of what a player is worth. We call that picture Total Runs. Here are the leader boards for the American and National leagues in Total Runs for 2010.

American Leauge Total Runs Leaders

Player | Runs | Baserunning Runs | Runs Saved | Positional Adjustment | Total Runs

Robinson Cano | 94 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 132

Josh Hamilton | 105 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 124

Evan Longoria | 86 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 123

Adrian Beltre | 83 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 114

Despite his impressive triple crown numbers, Miguel Cabrera is only fifth in the American League in Total Runs. He currently has 106 Runs Created, tied with Josh Hamilton for the overall MLB lead, but his baserunning, his defense and his value for playing first base only add another three runs for a Total Runs total of 109. Instead, Robinson Cano is the top player in the American League, with Hamilton and Evan Longoria close behind.

 

 

 

 

My Take: Fuck the Yankees.