SB Nation User Blog: rooster

May 30, 2009: The day the Rangers left the PECOTA projections in the dust. The Rangers have...

rooster — Sun, 31 May 2009 18:08:42 -0000

May 30, 2009: The day the Rangers left the PECOTA projections in the dust.

The Rangers have finally built a lead large enough that if all teams played at their pre-season PECOTA for the remainder of the season, the Rangers would still have the highest likelihood of winning the division.

Minors 5/24: Kirkman and Font

rooster — Sun, 24 May 2009 16:03:43 -0000

The headliners on the farm today are Kirkman and Font. Kirkman's start is, of course, his first in AA, and it is televised at 2pm. He's been the Derek Holland of 2009, and we're all trying to get a handle on what that really means. We will know a lot more after the LSB scrutiny of his start. Prior to his promotion, a California League feature on him was posted (5/20). A couple of interesting (to me) excerpts are

The former fifth-round pick made his best start to date Tuesday, striking out 11 over seven scoreless innings as the Blaze defeated the Stockton Ports, 9-5.

"I had my location tonight with my fastball, and that always helps," said Kirkman, who improved to 4-1 while lowering his ERA to 2.06. "The slider was good and my curveball was actually very good, too. Of course, the defense had some good plays behind me to get me out of it."

To tame the sluggers in a league known for scores that often resemble football games, Kirkman came into the year with a simple plan: Just throw strikes.

"So far, I've pretty much done that," he said.

Font, we've all known about for quite some time. His game begins at 5:30p. How similar is Font's success in A-ball compared to Feliz's. Not very, other than the ability to utterly dominate hitters with their fastballs. Font's performance has suffered (but remember his ERA is 1.50) from his inability to keep the ball in the zone. BB/9 for Feliz last year and Font this year are 3.07 and 5.96, respectively. So, the similarity between Feliz's breakout last year and Font's fast start this year are superficial. The analogy basically ends with their awe-inspiring fastballs.

Font-Kirkman == Feliz-Holland? No. Feliz-Holland was an incredibly special one-two breakout. Still there is much to like about what Font-Kirkman have done this year (Font is actually a year younger than Feliz was at this time last year), and I'm looking forward to all of the eyewitness reports and analysis of stuff and velocity that will ensue this afternoon.

BTW, Hunter for the Hawks at 2p, and maybe T-Murph in Bakersfield tonight at 9:30.

Rangers' Game 3/7 Pitcher

rooster — Sun, 17 May 2009 14:23:03 -0000

Today's Game 3 has the practical effect of putting some space between the Rangers and their closest contender early in the year. It might provide the Rangers with a confidence boost moving forward, maybe more in the sense of confirming to themselves what they already believe -- that they are more than capable of winning the division.

A somewhat big game has me thinking about who I would like on the mound to finish out a series. Feldman will keep the Rangers in today's game. But, say, hypothetically, this was Rangers-Angels Game 7 of the AL Championship Series. I guess that would mean the Rangers didn't have the most wins of the Division winners, and the Angels got the Wild Card (not the AL East). So, who would you want to start that game?

Poll

Who would you like to see on the mound for a game 7?

Kevin Millwood

51 votes

Vincente Padilla

3 votes

Brandon McCarthy

0 votes

Matt Harrison

9 votes

Scott Feldman

3 votes

Derek Holland

8 votes

74 votes | Poll has closed

Newberg Trade Ideas; Add your own if you like

rooster — Sat, 16 May 2009 14:46:35 -0000

We're reaching the edge of trade season. Here are some trade ideas from Newberg's 5/16 report.

(1a) Harrison and Justin Smoak for Matt Cain?
(1b) For Chris Volstad?
(1c) For Josh Johnson?

(2) Harrison, Michael Main, Max Ramirez, and Jose Vallejo for Jake Peavy

This is all in the context of drawing an analogy between Matt Harrison and what Beane did with Greg Smith, a pitchability lefty with a ceiling of #3/4 who Bean flipped with Carlos Gonzales and Houston Street for Matt Holliday.

One difference, IMO, is that Harrison isn't pitching much like a pitchability guy. He's acting more like a power pitcher.

Anyway, I don't even think about (1a). I quickly do (1b) or (1c). I'm not all that excited about (2), but mostly because I've thought Peavy was overused and likely to have an early decline. He hasn't shown any decline this year, though.

Houston Street is an interesting name I haven't thought about. He has one more year until FA after this one. What's the price? One ML-ready guy and a lower-level prospect? Maybe three prospects?

What to expect of the Rangers record by mid-June

rooster — Wed, 13 May 2009 13:50:25 -0000

The Rangers, the 1st place Rangers, have bullied lesser teams. This is what a good team does. It shows no mercy when it encounters wimps. Over the past 11 games, the Rangers have compiled an 8-3 record while playing against teams with anemic offenses that are particularly poor at hitting HRs (Mariners, White Sox, Athletics). The pitching staff didn't give in upon hearing the cries of "uncle" from the batters box, enforcing near abstinence from HRs upon these slap hitters (0.46 HR/9 compiled by Rangers pitching staff is lower than the composite HR/9 of 0.71 for these teams).

But, the 2008 Rangers beat up on slap hitters in May as well. Lots of columnists seem to not realize that part of the 2009 pitching staff success has come from pitching against weaklings, just like 2008. The beatings in 2008 turned out to be akin to a slightly larger kid picking on small kids. Later that summer, the real big boys came to town, prompting the Rangers to hire a new pitching coach soon thereafter. I can't tell if I should be convinced that this year is different.

What is different? We know the answer. The starting rotation is carrying the load this year. This May the SP has gone 6 innings and 2 outs on average, soaking up 71.7% of the innings with an ERA of 2.94. Last year the starters went 5 innings and 1 out against the wimps (59.8% of innings with a 4.74 ERA). All hail Nolan! All hail Maddux! All hail McCarthy's healer!

Getting back to the opening point, the offenses the Rangers have faced in May are ranked in the lower half of the entire majors in home runs and two are ranked among the lowest 10 teams. They also take very few walks; all are among the lowest 10 in this category.

I think there is reason to believe 2009 will not look like 2008. The starters actually kept these walk-averse teams to a lower walk rate than might be expected (Rangers SP has 2.43 BB/9 compared to 3.19 BB/9 from composite of White Sox, Athletics, and Seattle). Last year, Rangers SP did better against limp bats than the rest of the league (4.55 FIP during the hot stretch, 5.02 FIP the entire year). This year is quite a bit better (3.82 FIP), but not nearly as good as their 2.94 ERA suggests. The main reason is that this staff has a lower K/9, 4.22 in 2009 compared to 5.25 in 2008. The 2009 SP K/9 is less than expected against these teams, which have a composite K/9 of 6.75. It seems the improved defense is helping a great deal. So, going forward, what is more reliable? Ground balls and fly balls to fielders or K's? Rhetorical questions, of course, and the reason I still have some skepticism. The other trouble is that the starters cannot blink. They cannot show any fear of the strike zone. I'm just not convinced they won't blink.

What might the Rangers' pitching statistics look like when they face potent offenses? The first week of June will tell us. The Rangers play the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Dodgers the first 13 games of June. I'll use FIP to estimate the performance. If the composite HR/9 (1.17) of those four teams is used with the actual BB/9 (2.39) and K/9 (4.59) during this nice run, the Rangers FIP is 4.828. As expected, much higher than during this run (3.89), but still much below the 5.7 R/9 the offense produces. Historically (last year and the first month of this season), BB/9 and K/9 have on occasion been 4.0 and 5.5, respectively. So, HR/9 of 1.17, BB/9 of 4.0, and K/9 of 4.59 produces a FIP of 5.36 and with the same numbers but K/9 of 5.5 results in a FIP of 5.16. So, to summarize, these scenarios provide FIP estimates of 4.83, 5.16, and 5.36.

I didn't do the scenario of the best of both worlds, which is a higher K-rate and maintaining the low BB-rate. I just can't imagine that happening, and I would bet the current K-rate and BB-rate is about as good as the Rangers can sustain.

If the pitcher's don't blink and continue to rely on defense, a FIP of 5.0 seems a reasonable expectation, and with the improved defense, an ERA less than that also seems reasonable, say 4.7-4.9. That is quite a bit less than the Rangers' R/9 of 5.7 and produces a pythagorean record of 7-6. The rosy glasses scenario would be an 8-5 or 9-4 record.

The best case scenario looks like a continuation of their winning percentage in May plus keeping the walk rate low even when the big boys come to town. This would result in a mid-June record of something like 29-13. A .500 record the rest of May and reversion to a higher walk rate in early June would result in a record of something like 23-19.

More on Matt Harrison's Turnaround

rooster — Sun, 10 May 2009 11:47:57 -0000

Brooksbaseball.net has a great Pitch F/X tool. So, building on the fanpost by Desert Ranger, I've copied some of the information from the Brooksbaseball.net site that shows Harrison's four-seam fastball has a lot different movement on it now than in the early part of the season. In fact, his four-seam fastball movement is looking quite a bit like Holland's, though without the velocity.

Another difference between Holland and Harrison is that Holland's slider follows a path similar to his fastball until about 20 feet from home plate. Harrison has no pitches that follow a similar path.

Matt Harrison's Four-Seam Fastball Statistics
Date of Start	Average Speed	Max Speed	Average H-Break	Average V-Break	Number Thrown	Strike Percentage	Nibbleness	Time to Plate
4/17/2009	89.56	91.8	5.82	9.52	53	60.38	5.49	0.411
4/22/2009	91.73	94.8	5.88	9.45	44	59.09	4.60	0.410
5/3/2009	89.92	94	8.94	7.88	45	62.22	5.37	0.408
5/8/2009	93.15	97.7	9.18	7.66	92	67.39	5.77	0.433

Derek Holland's Four-Seam Fastball Statistics
Date of Start	Average Speed	Max Speed	Average H-Break	Average V-Break	Number Thrown	Strike Percentage	Nibbleness	Time to Plate
4/22/2009 (2.1 IP)	94.40	97.1	7.37	9.45	36	69.44	7.94	0.399
4/25/2009 (3.0 IP)	93.57	97.1	8.45	7.76	39	53.85	6.14	0.402
5/6/2009 (2 IP)	94.05	95.4	9.45	7.53	15	80.00	3.77	0.400

Brooksbaseball.net Pitch F/X tools for Matt Harrison starts:
4/11/2009
4/17/2009
4/22/2009
4/27/2009
5/3/2009
5/8/2009

Brooksbaseball.net Pitch F/X tools for Derek Holland's outings:
4/22/2009
4/25/2009
5/1/2009
5/6/2009
5/9/2009

Minors 5/8, 5/9

rooster — Fri, 08 May 2009 19:06:06 -0000

I'm just a little excited that Font is pitching today, and couldn't wait any longer to get a minors thread going. Here's hoping that Font follows Beavan's great outing with something special. Like a 7-inning, 10K shutout.

Font goes for Hickory at 3:30 CT. Yoon-Hee Nam gets the ball in the nightcap (against T. House!).

Shroom's schedule says that the 7 O'Clock hour will see Mathis pitching at Oklahoma and Hyatt at Frisco.

Kirkman goes for the Blaze at 9p. BTW, the Bakersfield Blaze and Santa Barbara blaze are separated by about 60 miles as the crow flies, but one would have to travel 148 miles by car, according to maps.google.com.

LSB +/-

rooster — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 14:40:33 -0000

Anyone interested in keeping tally of how many plays made this year it appears to us would not have been made last year?

I didn't attend the game, but from browsing Newberg/LSB/BBTIA and reading reports, it appears the infield probably made 3 plays that it wouldn't have last season. I don't know if there were plays that weren't made that would've been made last year.

So far, from these reports, it looks like the Rangers are +3 over last year, all from the left side of the infield thus far.

Fill in the Blank: 2009 Ranger Projections

rooster — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 12:20:48 -0000

Overall Record
2007: 75-87
2008: 79-83
2009: _____

April Record
2007: 10-15
2008: 10-17

Runs Allowed
2007: 844
2008: 967
2009: ____

Runs Scored
2007: 816
2008: 901
2009: ____

ERA, FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)
2007: 4.76, 4.83
2008: 5.37, 4.83
2009: ____, ____

Starter's ERA, Starter's FIP
2007: 5.50, 5.25
2008: 5.51, 5.02
2009: ____, ____

Reliever's ERA, Reliever's FIP
2007: 3.71, 4.24
2008: 5.15, 4.55

Now that the roster is basically set and the start of the season is less than a week away, I'm interested to hear in what ways everyone thinks the team will improve, if at all. Fill in the blanks if you feel like it; if you're not a numbers type, just leave your opinion.

My guesses:
Overall Record: 83-79
April Record: 12-10
Runs Allowed: 858
Runs Scored: 879
ERA, FIP: 4.81, 4.98
Starter ERA, Starter FIP: 4.91, 5.13
Reliever's ERA, Reliever's FIP: 4.63, 4.82

Basically, I see modest improvements in both the pitching and in the defense supporting, but nothing to cause a 300 runs allowed swing like the Rays had. The area that could really go bananas is the bullpen. I'm pessimistic that the stars will align for the bullpen, but if it does their numbers could return to close to the 2007 numbers. That would probably add 3-5 wins.

Dewan on value of defense relative to offense

rooster — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 17:51:00 -0000

John Dewan, author of the Fielding Bible, has a stat-of-the-week newsletter. This week he had an epiphany on the relative value of preventing and scoring runs.

The most significant discovery of my career

March 12, 2009

About two weeks ago The Fielding Bible—Volume II went to print. Since then, as I've been studying some of the data in the book preparing for interviews, I came upon a discovery that was truly amazing to me. The most amazing, and significant, discovery of my 25 years in the baseball analysis business.

The key mission of the second volume of The Fielding Bible was to translate all of our new defensive methods into one common number that would be understandable by everyone. That number is Defensive Runs Saved. How many runs does a player save for his team defensively?

We look at each player individually. We then do a team summary by adding up all the individual players. How many runs does an above-average defense save compared to an average team? The team with the best defense in baseball in 2008 was the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. By combining all of our defensive methods, eight different methods across the nine positions in baseball, we estimate that the Phillies defense saved 78 runs. Using the rule of thumb that 10 runs is equivalent to one win, that's eight wins. With an average defense, the Phillies wouldn't have had even a sniff of the playoffs.

The worst defensive team in baseball in 2008? The Kansas City Royals. Their defense cost them about 48 runs relative to the average team. Comparing the Phillies and the Royals, the difference between the best and worst defensive teams in baseball was about 130 runs.

Now, remember that number. 130.

The best run-scoring team in baseball was the Texas Rangers with 901 runs in 2008. The San Diego Padres were the worst with 637 runs. That's a difference of about 260 runs.

Here's the discovery, and I found it because the numbers just jumped out. The 130 difference in runs saved on defense is exactly half of the 260 difference in runs scored. That's exactly half. The implication is that defense is worth about half as much as offense.

That's a lot higher than I would have guessed, and a lot higher than I think most people would guess. But the numbers are remarkably consistent from one year to the next:

Year Best to Worst Offensive Difference Best to Worst Defensive Difference Defensive Spread as Percentage of Offensive Spread
2008 264 126 48%
2007 295 141 48%
2006 241 114 47%

Everyone realizes that defense is important, but it's never been quantified. Now we have the first way to quantify it. It's not necessarily the best way, and there will be more to come on this issue. The 50% figure is more of an indicator than an exact number, but it just jumped out at me and I wanted to share it with you.

I'm not sure where the Rangers rank in 2008, so consider two scenarios: ranked near the Royals, ranked in the middle.

If the Rangers in 2008 were near the top rather than near the Royals in defense runs saved, the 2008 run differential would have been something like +64 (901 scored minus 837 allowed) rather than -66 (901 scored minus 967 allowed). IOW, a pythagorean record of 87 wins and 75 losses

If the Rangers were near the top rather than middle, the 2008 differential would've been +9 runs (901 scored minus 892 allowed) for a pythagorean record of 82 wins and 80 losses.

Basically, the Rangers would've had to have had the best defense in the majors in 2008 to have had a winning record.

That's not exactly how Dewan intended that discussion to be used, as he appears to be focused on the relative value of scoring versus preventing runs rather than how it is applied to individual teams. In that vein, his numbers suggest that the top scoring teams have more to lose by replacing mashers with slick fielding slappers than poor defending teams have to gain by the same approach. If a team is poor at both runs scored and runs saved (ahem - KC), it better invest in a player's offense first.

I think the moves the Rangers have made on defense will be productive, but I don't think that those moves alone make it substantially more likely the Rangers finish as a .500 club, since it is hard to believe they will rise to the best run saved team in the league. The good thing is that the Rangers haven't really replaced poor-fielding mashers with top-fielding slappers, which appears to be an approach that would overemphasize defense.

BTW, if anyone has the Fielding Bible 2007 and 2008, I would really like to see the change in runs saved by the Rays. They allowed 273 fewer runs in 2008 compared to 2007. Dewan's observation suggests that at most about 140 of the 273 could be attributed to improved defense. Their team FIP went from 4.70 in 2007 to 4.22 in 2008, or a decrease of 80-85 runs. It doesn't all quite add up when thinking about pitching and defense independently. There may be some synergistic relationship as the Ray's team ERA went from much above the FIP ERA in 2007 to much below in 2008 (5.53 versus 4.72 in 2007, 3.82 versus 4.22 in 2008).

Year	Best to Worst Offensive Difference	Best to Worst Defensive Difference	Defensive Spread as Percentage of Offensive Spread
2008	264	126	48%
2007	295	141	48%
2006	241	114	47%