SB Nation User Blog: rooster

Offseason TORP, LHRP, Lefty Masher

rooster — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 14:08:08 -0000

With not all that much to talk about right now, I'm putting out some ideas of where the Rangers might look to fill their three holes: a LHP-mashing hitter, TORP, lefty bullpen specialist. I hope you all will add others to the list to make it more comprehensive and something to reference as the offseason progresses.

FA Lefty Mashers
Mark DeRosa
Jermaine Dye
Adrian Beltre
Mike Cameron
Gabe Kapler
Jason Bay (Type A FA)

TRADE targets for RH Lefty mashers
Jorge Cantu
Matt Diaz
Josh Willingham

TORP FA
Ben Sheets
Erik Bedard
Rich Harden
John Lackey (Type A FA)

TORP trade targets
Roy Halladay
Ricky Nelasco
Roy Oswalt (His name always comes up on our board, but I doubt he's ever available)

LOOGY
Scott Eyre
Joe Biemel
Ron Mahay
LaTroy Hawkins (type A)
John Grabow (type A)

LOOGY trade targets
Dusty Hughes
George Sherrill
Randy Choate
Tyler Clippard (oddly, not a LHP)
Pedro Feliciano

Internal options for LHRP, not necessarily just a LOOGY
Matt Harrison
Derek Holland
AJ

LHRP Rule 5
John Gaub

Other RP of Interest, recently granted FA
Tony Pena Jr.
Wilfredo Ledezma

One-stop shopping
Royals: Greinke-Butler-Hughes for Cruz-Hunter-Salty-Smoak-Perez-NeRa
Marlins: Nolasco-Cantu-Meyer for Cruz-Hunter-MaxRam-Beavan-Moreland

Runs, OBP, SLG, and Baserunners that Score: 2000-2009

rooster — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:59:16 -0000

The two main themes that have been voiced for improving the Rangers offense from this years disappointment have been voiced by Ryan and Wash:

Said Ryan: "We were all disappointed in the number of strikeouts and the lack of walks. We felt like for us to move forward, that was an area we had to stress with the hitters, like maybe have a different approach on two strikes. [Rudy] was in agreement with that.

Manager Ron Washington mentioned situational hitting as a big concern. The Rangers were 20th in the majors in runs scored and RBIs with runners in scoring position.

Does the past performance of the offense align with the perceived areas of needed improvement identified above? Basically, I'm looking at the road ahead that management has voiced as their desired path rather than trying to diagnose Rudy's influence in the past. A simple way to look into this is to look at runs scored versus the components of OPS which are OBP and SLG. I've used team OBP, SLG, and runs for the past decade (2000-2009) for the all ML teams as a start.

via sites.google.com

The plot above shows Runs on the vertical axis and OBP on the horizontal. The median is 0.337, and for some reason unknown to me the vertical grey line for the median did not transfer to the PNG. The correlation between OBP and Runs is 0.854. The Rangers have been on either side of the median OBP, but they score more runs for a given OBP, especially OBPs below the median, than is typical of other ML teams. In other words, they have fewer baserunners but have made the most of what they had.

via sites.google.com

The plot above shows runs on the vertical axis and SLG on the horizontal. The median is indicated by the vertical grey line, and its value is 0.423. The correlation between Runs and SLG is 0.897. The Rangers are sluggers, of course, but the appear to produce fewer runs for a given SLG than similar sluggers. Clearly this is due to their lower OBP, but how completely the OBP deficiency is offset by hyper SLG can only be seen in a joint plot, which is shown below.

via sites.google.com

The plot above shows SLG on the vertical axis and OBP on the horizontal with color coding of symbols by number of runs. The Rangers are plotted as a big circle, and all other teams are small squares. Teams that produced more than 900 runs have blue symbols, 850-900 have red symbols, 800-850 have black symbols, and 600-800 have light blue-grey symbols. Two odd things stand out about the Rangers:

(1) Almost no other team has been able to score 800-900 runs when having an OBP in the 0.33 to 0.34 range. The Rangers get more with less than just about everybody. However, if the Rangers can increase their OBP to the level of other high SLG teams, the Rangers would very likely be right around or above 900 Runs much more often.

(2) OBP and SLG go hand in hand to some extent, except for the Rangers. The linear relationship is evident here, and the correlation is 0.728. The Rangers are nearly the only team that has put up a season (and the Rangers have multiple such seasons) in which low OBP guys exhibit a great deal of power.

It's not quite this straightforward to figure out how efficient the Rangers are at clearing the bases. I've estimated the number of baserunners as hits minus HR, plus BB, plus IBB, plus HBP, minus GDP, minus CS. GDP and CS removes a player from the bases. GDP might remove two, but in that case the hitter becomes a runner. I have not included runners reaching by fielding error, fielder's choice, dropped third strike, fielder's obstruction, or catcher's interference. Fielder's choice is a zero sum game, so really the only overlooked category that could cause problems is fielding errors.

The efficiency of scoring baerunners is posed as the question: what fraction of baserunners score? That number of scoring baserunners is the number of runs minus HR, since the hitter of a HR was not on base when the HR was hit. Number of runs minus HR, divided by baserunners is the fraction of baserunners that score, given the caveat of not including runners via fielding errors.

via sites.google.com

The plot above shows Runs on the vertical axis and fraction of baserunners that score on the horizontal. The median value is 0.333, and the correlation of Runs with fraction of baserunners that score is 0.788. It is clear the Rangers are a team that has been above average at getting their baserunners home. Baseball-reference has something similar (BR and BRS statistics*), and the Rangers in 2009 were about league average.

Bringing this back to Ryan's diagnosis (lack walks; need better two-strike approach) and Wash's diagnosis (lack situational hitting), I think both are offbase to some extent. The lack of walks is making the offense less productive than similar level SLG offenses. However, everyone knows it is extremely hard to get a hit or on base when a hitter has two strikes. The flip side is that it is much easier to hit with a 3-0 or 2-0 count. According to BR for 2009, the Rangers had the fewest 3-0 and 2-0 counts in the AL. Ryan is half on track and half going down the wrong track.
If by "situational hitting" Wash means getting a hitter's count, I would agree with his idea. However, the idea that the Rangers aren't scoring more because they don't move runners along is completely off base. The Rangers are average or better by mare than one measure at getting runners home, even if Wash's eyes tell him they aren't very good at producing so-called productive outs. And, if they actually aren't, their power more than makes up for it.

What the Rangers primarily need is more baserunners. Screw small ball. Power has been working. They just need more baserunners.

* BR and BRS are similar to what I did above except they add together the baserunners for each AB, if I understand correctly. This means if three runners were on base for consecutive ABs and one scored in the second AB, BR would be 6 (two AB times three runners during each AB) and BRS would be 1. BRS/BR is 1/6. The way I computed it would simply be three baserunners and one score: 1/3.

WS Winners

rooster — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 02:21:57 -0000

This might be a lame-ish post in that it doesn't involve analysis or pointing out some idiotic decision. But, the offseason has been pretty lame (except for the excellent collapse by Papelbon) and, I've been thinking about what palyers I, as a baseball fan, would enjoy seeing win a world series. The guys I really could root for and who could keep me invested in the playoffs. For example, ARod, not so much. Same with Lackey, even if he's a Ranger. I would love to see the Rangers win it, of course, but it would be a little bit of a downer to me if Lackey were the winning pitcher in the deciding game. So, here are a few of some of the better players in the league that off the top of my head I would absolutely love to see win a world series (or another):
Josh Hamilton (even if I weren't a Rangers fan, he'd keep my interest up)
Zack Greinke
Joe Maurer
Pudge
Elvis
Pujols
Tulowitzki
Ben Sheets
Roy Halladay
Jamie Moyer
Johan Santana
Roy Oswalt
Adrian Gonzalez
Beltran

The opposite, a few of those who force me to turn the channel:
ARod
Papi
Papelbon
Lackey
Pettite
Fielder
Drew (both of them)
Jeter

Royals Wish List: OF, C, RP

rooster — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 21:51:23 -0000

Royals Wish List: OF, C, RP

Dayton's Offseason Wish List

Cruz, Saltalamacchia, Strop, any two minor leaguers not named Perez or Smoak.

Rangers 2009, easily the best season of the oughts decade

rooster — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 05:26:36 -0000

Although the 2009 season is essentially over, it is, without a doubt, the best season the Rangers have had since their 5-year peak in the late 1990s. Here are a few things I can recall over the past decade. Feel free to add in your remembrances and significant events of the past 10 years.

2000
Rangers enter the millenia as best in the West and cede that position within the year. Juan gone for Justin Thompson, Francisco Cordero, Frank Catalanotto and others. Pudge has his greatest season in just over half of a season, but the Rangers fall apart shortly after his thumb is broken when it collides with Mo Vaughn's bat.

2001
A New Era is announced with the signing of ARod, potentially the greatest player of his generation, as Hicks intends to reshape the Rangers in the mold of the large payroll Yankees.

2002
ARod's True Ranger MVP Year, likely the finest short-stop year of the PED era. Just another losing season for the Rangers.

2003
ARod's MVP Year. The next George Brett arrives. However, the New Era comes to an end with the trade of ARod, who does not want to play with "24 kids" and feels betrayed that the team isn't chock full of veterans (ironic, considering his spoken promise to Hicks that he wouldn't take steroids is now publicly admonished by Hicks as a betrayal). Hart announces the team now needs "financial flexibility" in order to remain competitive.

2004
The Fighting Showalters. Second best season of the decade, thanks to surprising seasons from Drese, the Gambler, Mayday Mahay, Brian Shouse, and Coco. Also, the team appears to be on the verge of having the best infield in baseball with young, potent hitters at 3B, SS, 2B and 1B: Hank, Young, Soriano, Teixeira.

2005
Fighting Showalter. Lots of front office jockeying behind the scenes. Some grumbling from the players. A risky trade after the season sent Alfonso Soriano packing and brought back Wilkerson, Armando Galarraga, and Terrmel Sledge.

2006
Firing Showalter. A late-season sweep by the Devil Rays is generally believed to have been a mutiny, but, perhaps, Showalter's push to acquire Adam Eaton prior to the season at the expense of Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young was really his undoing. However, a risky trade was made after the season, sending John Danks to the White Sox for Brandon McCarthy. Ironically, Showalter and at least Jim Reeves loudly complained it wasn't the manager but the lack of pitching that was the problem. The trade appears to confirm this opinion.

2007
A player's manager was brought on board, but it seemed to have little impact on the field. A massive haul of talent is brought into the minor league system through the trade of Teixeira for Harrison, Salty, Beau Jones, Elvis, and Neftali along with June draftees Beavan, Main, Borbon, Hunter, Mitch Moreland & Tim Smith (now in KC with Danny Guetierrez a Ranger), and July international FA signees Martin Perez, Tomas Telis, Ezequiel Rijo, Edwin Garcia, Guillermo Pimentel, and Juan Grullon. Oh yeah, the Rangers final Draft and Follow signee was inked this year: Derek Holland. On Dec 21, the Rangers acquired Josh Hamilton in exchange for Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera.

2008
Spectacular minor league seasons from Holland, Feliz, Chris Davis, Elvis, Max Ramirez, Martin Perez, Tommy Hunter, and others carry the Rangers minor league system to the top ranking. Rangers add Smoak, Robbie Ross, Richard Alveraz, Joe Weiland, Richard Bleier, Tanner Roark, Edwin Escobar, and Esdras Abreu.

2009
A New Hope. Best season of the decade, by far, stemming almost entirely from drastically improved run prevention, initiated by the offseason move of MY from SS to 3B, accelerated by the spectacular in-season growth of Elvis Andrus into a ML SS, and fortified with contributions from young pitchers Holland, Harrison, Hunter, Feldman, and Feliz. Rangers' farm graduates Holland/Feliz/Davis/Elvis and replaces them with Scheppers/Perez/Smoak/Profar/Sardinas. Other notable June draftees and July signees include Braden Tullis, Robert Erlin, Braxton Lane, and Ruben Sierra Jr, whose father unretired from baseball in 2000, joining the Rangers and posted a nice comeback year for the Rangers in 2001.

Go Blaze! A win tonight brings them the Cal League Championship for the first time ever.

rooster — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 20:19:27 -0000

Go Blaze! A win tonight brings them the Cal League Championship for the first time ever.

Greinke, Lincecum, and Newberg

rooster — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 13:00:35 -0000

Newberg wonders in his report today (9/11; has it been 8 years already?) whether Moore will be more inclined to move Greinke now that the Royals have proven they can finish last even with a Cy Young candidate. This is a much more interesting off-day idea than whether Millwood will be benched by MLB or whether the Rangers can't sell the team because RBiA lacks a roof. As a point of comparison, the Giants, OTOH, have their team in much better position. Here is where Greinke and Lincecum would rank in FIP going back to 1974:

1. 1999 Martinez 1.39
2. 1984 Gooden 1.69
3. 1995 Johnson 2.08
4. 1981 Gullickson 2.11
5. 1985 Gooden 2.13
6. 2001 Johnson 2.13
7. 1986 Scott 2.16
8. 1988 Clemens 2.17
9. 2000 Martinez 2.17
10. 1990 Clemens 2.18
11. 1978 Guidry 2.19
12. 2003 Martinez 2.21
13. 1979 Richard 2.21
14. 1998 Brown 2.23
15. 2009 Lincecum 2.23
16. 2002 Martinez 2.24
17. 1997 Clemens 2.25
18. 2004 Johnson 2.30
19. 1975 Seaver 2.35
20. 2009 Greinke
21. 1974 Blyleven 2.37
22. 1994 Maddux 2.39

Jamey suggests the following:

Kansas City’s choice of righthander Tommy Hunter or lefthander Martin Perez; (2) righthander Wilmer Font; (3-4) Kansas City’s choice of either outfielder Julio Borbon and hitter Max Ramirez – or outfielders Nelson Cruz and Engel Beltre; and (5) shortstop Leury Garcia to get Greinke and, say, reliever Juan Cruz (owed $3.25 million in 2010 and a $500,000 buyout in 2011). Tack on (6) Garr as well.

I think it would take both Hunter and Perez plus his idea of Borbon/Ramirez or Cruz/Beltre. That would give KC two ML starters (3 if Ramirez breaks camp with the club; I thought last year that a trade of Greinke should net 3 ML for it to be worth it to the Royals), plus two potential impact players on the farm. I'm not all that interested in Cruz, but if it only takes Garr to get him, fine.

Anyone interested in trade talk this early?

BMac's New Mechanics

rooster — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 16:52:18 -0000

BBTN had some initial thoughts from Trip on BMac's new mechanics. So, I've made side-by-side frame shots using last night's start against Toronto (Sep 1) and his shutout start against Houston (May 24), and I have interlaced Trip's comments in order to see what Trip is writing about.

via sites.google.com

Trip's comments

Another important change is in how McCarthy picks up the baseball. His old way was a very vertical pick-up that featured an inverted arm position -- the inverted 'W'. Now, McCarthy swings his arm down, back, and up. This takes a lot of stress out his pick-up, but if you were watching him closely, you could see that his elbow still gets pretty high and pretty far behind his back.

via sites.google.com

Trip's comments

McCarthy's glove arm is now a far more active part of his delivery. He uses it to keep his shoulders closed deeper into his delivery, and he uses it to gain some rotational leverage as his shoulders finally do rotate. Before, his glove arm swung his shoulders open early and then played dead.

via sites.google.com

Trip's comments

McCarthy's glove arm is now a far more active part of his delivery. He uses it to keep his shoulders closed deeper into his delivery, and he uses it to gain some rotational leverage as his shoulders finally do rotate. Before, his glove arm swung his shoulders open early and then played dead.

via sites.google.com

The release is what stood out to me. BMac seemed to me to fall forward not as soon in his motion as he used to. Maybe that is a trick played on my eyes by virtue of his glove hand not hanging down as it used to. These frames, of course, are not precisely aligned, so the forward position of his upper body in the right image might be simply nothing more than a later moment in his delivery. It looks to me, though, that with his new mechanics his arm comes through a little bit ahead of his body compared to in the past and he is in a taller, more balanced position. It was that body-flinging-downward motion that always made me think of him as a stork falling over his feet. BMac's previous motion always brought to mind a scene from Disney's Robin Hood.

via sites.google.com

May 30, 2009: The day the Rangers left the PECOTA projections in the dust. The Rangers have...

rooster — Sun, 31 May 2009 18:08:42 -0000

May 30, 2009: The day the Rangers left the PECOTA projections in the dust.

The Rangers have finally built a lead large enough that if all teams played at their pre-season PECOTA for the remainder of the season, the Rangers would still have the highest likelihood of winning the division.

Minors 5/24: Kirkman and Font

rooster — Sun, 24 May 2009 16:03:43 -0000

The headliners on the farm today are Kirkman and Font. Kirkman's start is, of course, his first in AA, and it is televised at 2pm. He's been the Derek Holland of 2009, and we're all trying to get a handle on what that really means. We will know a lot more after the LSB scrutiny of his start. Prior to his promotion, a California League feature on him was posted (5/20). A couple of interesting (to me) excerpts are

The former fifth-round pick made his best start to date Tuesday, striking out 11 over seven scoreless innings as the Blaze defeated the Stockton Ports, 9-5.

"I had my location tonight with my fastball, and that always helps," said Kirkman, who improved to 4-1 while lowering his ERA to 2.06. "The slider was good and my curveball was actually very good, too. Of course, the defense had some good plays behind me to get me out of it."

To tame the sluggers in a league known for scores that often resemble football games, Kirkman came into the year with a simple plan: Just throw strikes.

"So far, I've pretty much done that," he said.

Font, we've all known about for quite some time. His game begins at 5:30p. How similar is Font's success in A-ball compared to Feliz's. Not very, other than the ability to utterly dominate hitters with their fastballs. Font's performance has suffered (but remember his ERA is 1.50) from his inability to keep the ball in the zone. BB/9 for Feliz last year and Font this year are 3.07 and 5.96, respectively. So, the similarity between Feliz's breakout last year and Font's fast start this year are superficial. The analogy basically ends with their awe-inspiring fastballs.

Font-Kirkman == Feliz-Holland? No. Feliz-Holland was an incredibly special one-two breakout. Still there is much to like about what Font-Kirkman have done this year (Font is actually a year younger than Feliz was at this time last year), and I'm looking forward to all of the eyewitness reports and analysis of stuff and velocity that will ensue this afternoon.

BTW, Hunter for the Hawks at 2p, and maybe T-Murph in Bakersfield tonight at 9:30.