SB Nation User Blog: royalstern05

THE ROYALS EVERLASTING WEAKNESS, BEING WEAK

royalstern05 — Sun, 10 Aug 2008 13:22:37 -0000

GMDM's most recent move - HoRam for some light hitting speedster - chaps my rear-end. My ire is not directed towards the idea of moving HoRam when his stock has never been (and possibly never will be) higher, its directed at the return.

Throughout the entire existence of the Royals they/we have had a complete lack of power - see team single season homerun leader, Steve Balboni - 36 homers (Yuck).

via www.stevebalboni.com

This team is going nowhere until a real power hitter or 2 . . . or 3 - god forbid, is entrenched in the middle of the lineup. One guy with power is not enough, which is something we haven't had since we briefly featured a lineup of Sweeney/Beltran/Dye.

via images.royalsreview.com

As a matter of fact - not 1 American Leage playoff team has hit less than 140 team homeruns and had only one 20 + homerun hitter other than the 2007 Angels (123 and Vlad - 27 hrs) - but they had a 4.23 team ERA - and they were swept in the 1st round, since the 1995 New York Yankees (122 and Paul O'Neill - 22 hrs). Those Yanks were defeated in the 1st round by the Mariners. Marinate on that for a moment.

via msnbcmedia.msn.com

Not one American League team has reached the ALCS with less than 140 team homers since the 1991 Toronto Blue Jays (133). That was before the Wild Card!!!!

The last time the Royals had more than one player reach or breach the 20 homer plateau - 2002 - they had 140 team homeruns. Ibanez hit 24 homers, Sweeney hit 24 homers and Beltran hit 29 homers. The team ERA that year was 5.21!!

via cache.viewimages.com

This team is going nowhere until, in addition to the quality of pitching being increased, the aggregate power is increased. Not one GMDM trade has brought any power to this team (Ryan Shealy doesn't count). Signing Olivo and Guillen was a nice stop-gap, but it is slightly disturbing that nothing else that GMDM has done has shown any organizational emphasis or care about adding power.

The moving of HoRam for yet another light hitting outfielder (the organization must now have 15 guys that fit this mold) leaves me scratching my head. If this new guy is the best HoRam could return, why make the move? There is no upside to this type of player for the Royals. Maybe teams like the Red Sox or Yankees could value a speed guy because the added spice of speed to their already powerful lineups could create a dynamic mix. The Royals are woefully lacking power. We have Gathright, Teahen, DeJesus, Maier, Costa, etc. Why add another outfielder with no power?

Besides - they don't make speedsters like they used to.

via tonyskansascity.com

Un-noticed Super-Event: The Allard Baird Super Bowl

royalstern05 — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 12:51:20 -0000

Last night, July 7, 2008, featured perhaps the most amazing and underrated event in baseball history.

Two Allard Baird prodigies, Runelvys Hernandez and Denny Bautista, got decisions in the same game, for the Astros and Pirates, respectively. Some would say that the real story was that there are at least 2 other GM's in MLB who also believe that the above-referenced players belong on an MLB roster. I contend that the true story is reflected in the box score:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=280707123

Houston Astros
Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
R Hernandez (L, 0-3)	4.0	13	10	10	4	3	2	99-62	10.29

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
P Dumatrait	3.1	9	7	7	2	1	1	72-38	5.26
D Bautista (W, 2-1)	2.2	0	0	0	0	3	0	35-25	4.50

Runelvys sucks, that is apparent. But the success of Bautista, albeit one game, in a relief role is what is most interesting. (In retrospect - having Bautista in a middle-relief role, instead of Yabuta or - gulp - Nomo, and Ryan Shealy not sucking at-bats away from someone more deserving in AAA would probably have been nice.)

Clearly Baird wouldn't have foreseen how Bautista could more likely than not be a success out of the pen. The questions I ask everyone at Royals Review are: Why didn't GMDM see this? and Does it matter? Was the risk/reward of the Shealy acquisition worth it? Are we upset about letting Bautista go????

Royals Fanaticism Infused into my Wedding.

royalstern05 — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 02:22:10 -0000

During the Royals loss to the Twins on Friday I was heavily involved in the Game Thread.

One topic of discussion was our respective levels of fanaticism. I mentioned that I made my wife place a Royals emblem with the phrase, "Lets Go Royals" at the end of our wedding program. In the spirit of full disclosure, I am posting images of other details of our wedding that I expressed my love for the Royals through.

Enjoy my sickness!

via home.royalstern.com

via home.royalstern.com-a.googlepages.com

New Poll

royalstern05 — Mon, 21 Jan 2008 01:43:10 -0000

Royals reportedly sign Brett Tomko
By RoyalsRetro
Posted on Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 07:47:38 PM EDT

Dayton Moore has brought in his veteran pitcher and it is.....drumroll please....Brett Tomko!!!

Who is Brett Tomko?

ESPN: Royals sign Tomko

Brett Tomko was a second round pick by the Reds in 1995. He pitched fairly well in his first few seasons, winning 24 games in his first two years. He was then dealt with Mike Cameron to the Mariners in the Ken Griffey deal. In Seattle, Tomko found injury problems, although he and Gil Meche were part of a 116 win ballclub, with Tomko contributing mostly by sitting on the DL.

Tomko was then dealt to San Diego in a "junk for junk" deal. After one 10-10 4.49 ERA season in San Diego, he was dealt to St. Louis where he won 13 games despite a 5.28 ERA. Despite Tomko being only 30 years old, Giants General Manager Brian Sabean was quite impressed with Tomko, so he signed him to a two year deal. Tomko spent the next few years bouncing around the NL West - from San Fran to LA and back to San Diego. Colorado and Arizona were not interested in his services, so he signed with Kansas City.

Tomko is coming off a 4-12 5.55 ERA season, although he did strike out 105 in 131 innings. In eleven MLB seasons, he is 93-92 with a 4.62 ERA.

ZIPS projects Tomko to have a 4.34 ERA and a 104-49 K-BB ratio in 143 innings, although that was projected in a pitchers park in San Diego, and in the National League.

I think we could reasonably expect an ERA in the realm of 4.70-5.00 from Tomko, which isn't too shabby considering the money he is making ($3 million for one season with incentives pushing it to $4.5 million). He can start or relieve. He can provide veteran presence. He can provide grit.

I'm not so sure I endorse this deal, only because I'd rather see what our young'uns can do, but if we're going to sign a vet, I'd rather it be a low risk guy like Tomko, than a multi-year deal to Bartolo "Show me to the Buffet" Colon.

One last note, Tomko is married to Playboy model Julia Schultz (link is safe for work). So Mrs. Lima has definitely been replaced.

Entry Link :: 15 Comments

Poll

The Royals have signed Bret Tomko for $3 million. Which of the following is a better way to spend that $3 million?

Cost of Glidden paint necessary to paint all the stadium seats red, like the good 'ole days.

4 votes

Approximately 3 years of George Brett's career - based upon his career salary total of $20,046,429.

6 votes

150,000 lap dances at your favorite local gentlemen's club.

27 votes

Burn the cash in a giant bonfire or flush it down the toilet for all I care, but for the love of God, please don't subject me to yet another awful re-tread of a never-better-than-mediocre pitcher who is now more well suited for washing my car than pitchin

13 votes

50 votes | Poll has closed

Great 2008 Expectations

royalstern05 — Sun, 30 Dec 2007 15:21:20 -0000

Trying to quantify off-season success is often an exercise in futility. The Washington Redskins (in the Daniel Snyder era of ownership) have been deemed perennial off-season winners, however, time after time the Redskins have had little postseason appearances or wins to show for it. Signing the "biggest name" or "making the biggest splash" does not cause winning to occur. While one can correlate regular and post season successes to the acquisition of certain players in the off-season, the fundamental truth is that winning relies on too many variables, quirks and twists of fate (to wit, health) to ever be accurately predicted. I'm not even getting into the enigmatic "team chemistry" impact.

The Royals history of off-season moves (Post-Ewing-Kauffman, hereinafter for brevity referred to as "The Dark Ages") are enough to cause bile to creep into the back of your throats. As a result I will spare everyone, myself especially, from listing the garbage we have acquired over the years. Please accept this post as an attempt to quantify the benefit added to our beloved Royals thus far this winter.

2007 Winter Acquisitions:

Miguel Olivo (Catcher)
Alberto Callaspo (2b/SS)
Jose Guillen (LF)
Ron Mahay (RP)
Yasuhiko Yabuta (RP)

2007 Winter Losses:

Jason LaRue (Corpse $5.2 mil. - we should sue him under the theory of unjust enrichment)
David Riske (RP - $2 mil.)
Mike Sweeney (DH/1b - $11 mil.) (I'm assuming he will not be re-signed)
Emil Brown (LF - $3.45 mil.)
Reggie Sanders (LF - $5 mil.)
Odalis Perez (SP - $7.75 mil.)
John Thomson (SP - I think he was the free gift GMDM got with his subscription to Sports Illustrated. - Am I the only one who liked what he brought to the table? He's got grit, no?)
(Note: I listed the salaries so you could all fully appreciate how much money we pissed away on a 93 loss season.)

Before I begin, allow me to address some of our "Losses" this Winter. LaRue, Sanders and Perez are all "additions-by-subtractions." Their departures freed up approximately $18 million. I feel confident that I need not explain further, by all objective measures they all suck. Thomson didn't play long enough (2 games, 10 and 2/3 innings pitched) to constitute a loss.

Run differential alone isn't a complete indicator of a team's success. The Royals' Pythagorean W-L for the `07 season was 74-88, based on 706 runs scored and 778 runs allowed. As we all know, they didn't crack 70 wins and finished at 69-93, five games worse than their Pythagorean. Still, if we could estimate the Royals Pythagorean for 2008 and know that we have an "error" of approximately 5 games, we could feel that we've succeeded in quantifying our off-season moves.

So, how many runs does the addition of Miguel Olivo, Alberto Callaspo and Jose Guillen, less the subtraction of Emil Brown, translate into? How do the additions of Ron Mahay and Yasuhiko Yabuta offset the loss of David Riske? (I won't bother trying to answer the bullpen question - someone else can take a crack at it.)

Callaspo has not played enough at the big league level to be able to project his impact. For the others, we can average their Runs Created (RBI + Runs Scored - HR's) for the past three seasons and use that as our measuring tool.

Olivo:      2007 - 122 Games - 60 RBI + 43 Runs - 16 HR's = 87 Runs Created
    2006 - 127 Games - 58 RBI + 52 Runs - 16 HR's = 94 Runs Created
    2005 - 91 Games - 34 RBI + 30 Runs - 09 HR's = 55 Runs Created
Average: 79 Runs Created

Guillen: 2007 - 99 RBI + 84 Runs - 23 HR's = 160 Runs Created
    2006 - Injured Only Played in 69 Games
    2005 - 76 RBI + 81 Runs - 24 HR's = 133 Runs Created
    2004 - 104 RBI + 88 Runs - 27 HR's = 165 Runs Created
Average: 153 Runs Created

Brown: 2007 - 62 RBI + 44 Runs - 06 HR's = 100 Runs Created
2006 - 81 RBI + 77 Runs - 15 HR's = 143 Runs Created
2005 - 86 RBI + 75 Runs - 17 HR's = 144 Runs Created
Average: 129 Runs Created

Olivo will likely see less action this year than he has in years past. John Buck is still the Royals starting catcher. Last season Jason LaRue played in 69 games. Assuming that Olivo is moderately productive, he should get in 75 games. He's averaged 113 games per season over the last 3 years, thus, 75 games would be 66.37% of his average. 66.37% of his average of 79 Runs Created is approximately 52 Runs Created. By the way, LaRue had 23 Runs Created last season, meaning he created 1 run for every 3 games he played . . . YUCK!

All else being equal, offensively we've likely added 29 runs with Olivo and 24 runs with Guillen - 53 runs. If our pitching remains the same our Pythagorean will still be below .500.

With the subtractions of Odalis Perez and Scott Elarton, you can subtract 128 runs allowed. With Zack Greinke replacing Perez in the rotation we can extrapolate the benefit added. Assuming Greinke pitches as well as he did last season - he allowed 31 runs in his 14 starts - we can expect him to allow about 2.2 runs per game started. Perez allowed 3.46 runs per game started (considering that he averaged 5 and 1/3 IP per start, that is quite sucky). Anyway, with Greinke replacing Perez's 26 games - we can expect that he would allow a total of 57 runs - 33 runs less than the Odalis Perez experiment.

I think it would be safe to assume that any of the following group, DeLaRosa (3.82 runs per game), Davies (3.73 runs per game), Hochevar (2 runs per game - even though he only started 1 game), Nunez (2.17 runs per game) and/or Luke Hudson, will provide an improvement over what Elarton did to us. You realize that Elarton allowed 44 runs in his 9 games started?????? He only pitched 37 innings!!!!!!! That means that he averaged more runs allowed than innings pitched per game started!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! An ERA over 9 (10.46 to be exact) means that someone does not belong in MLB. That has to be some sort of record!!!!! Good god! Good riddance!!!!! I digress; anyway, if we take the worst of the above group - DeLaRosa - as our example, and factor that performance in place of Elarton's 9 games, we get an improvement of 10 runs allowed.

If we can all agree that the bullpen additions/subtractions are a wash, then we can figure on the Royals having an improvement of 43 less runs allowed next season.

Our `07 performance of 706 runs scored and 778 runs allowed (assuming all else being equal - and that the improvement of our youth: Butler, Gordon, Teahen, etc., will compensate for Sweeney's 57 runs created) will be improved to 759 runs scored and 735 runs allowed. That is an above .500 team. I expect this team to be a winning team.

Miguel Olivo Joins Royals

royalstern05 — Thu, 27 Dec 2007 16:40:33 -0000

MLB.com is reporting as a headline that Miguel Olivo has signed a one-year deal with the Kansas City Royals. The deal apparently contains an option for the 2009 season. There do not appear to be any further details on this alleged-signing.

If it is accurate, we have signed a relatively young and defensive-strong backstop. Nobody has ever accused Olivo of being an offensive force by any stretch. However, if he manages to break the Mendoza-line in back-up duty, it would represent an increase in production from the Jason LaPoo experiment.

Overall, count this Royals nut as pleased with the acquisition. Olivo has a good glove and better arm. His bat will be adequate for what he is being asked to do. Buddy Bell would have found a way to get Olivo 550 AB's - hopefully Hillman will limit him to 250-300 AB's. The limited duty could actually help increase Olivo's batting impact (less wear-and-tear).

What does everyone else think?

Poll

Are you happy with the acquisition of Miguel Olivo?

No

23 votes

Thank God he's not Jason LaRue, Benito Santiago, Alberto Castillo, Paul Bako . . .

99 votes

Yes

119 votes

241 votes | Poll has closed

LaRue vs. Buck

royalstern05 — Thu, 09 Aug 2007 21:28:41 -0000

kc is 16-9 since june 1 in games caught by lapoo!!!!

in those 25 games we've allowed 101 runs, just a tick over 4 runs per game.

during that same time span, kc is 16-20 in games caught by john buck.

in those 36 games we've allowed 183 runs, slightly over 5 runs per game.

meanwhile, during buck's 36 games he has 21 rbi's and 18 runs scored - subtracting the 8 hr's he hit - means he produced a total of 31 runs at the plate.

larue had 8 rbi's and 9 runs scored - subtracting the 3 hr's he hit - means he produced 14 total runs in the line-up.

this means that larue is good for approximately .56 runs per game that he catches - while the pitching is likely to allow about 4 runs in those games.

meanwhile, buck is good for about .86 runs per game that he catches while the pitching is likely to allow about 5 runs in those games.

the .3 difference in approximate run production between buck and larue is dwarfed by the 1 run differential between what the royals pitchers allow when one or the other is catching. in sum, although larue is abismal at the plate, the royals pitching is sufficiently better during his starts to warrant his place in the line-up. so much so that KC is 7 games over .500 when he starts (dating back to june 1st) and 4 games under .500 when he rides the pine.

chew on that!!!!

Royals All-Favorite Team

royalstern05 — Mon, 11 Dec 2006 00:05:45 -0000

I'd like to see every one's all time favorite Royals by position.

Here's mine:

1b - Mike Sweeney
2b - Frank White
SS - Kurt Stillwell
3b - George Brett
C - Mike Macfarlane
OF - Bo Jackson
OF - Willie Wilson
OF - Carlos Beltran
DH - Hal McRae

SP - Bret Saberhagen
SP - Kevin Appier
C - Dan Quisenberry

2nd Team:

1b - Steve Balboni
2b - Cookie Rojas
SS - Freddie Patek
3b - Kevin Seitzer
C - Brent Mayne
OF - Brian McRae
OF - Danny Tartabull
OF - Jim Eisenreich
DH - Bob Hamelin

SP - Paul Splittorff
SP - Mark Gubizca
C - Jeff Montgomery

Honorable Mention:

1b - Wally Joyner
2b - Carlos Febles
SS - UL Washington
3b - Joe Randa
C - John Wathan
OF - Lou Pinella
OF - Raul Ibanez
OF - David DeJesus (what can I say, I love the guy!)
DH - the current Mike Sweeney

SP - Tom "Flash" Gordon
SP - David Cone
C - Actually not a closer - but I loved Hipolito Pichardo

The Almighty George . . .

royalstern05 — Sun, 10 Dec 2006 03:20:31 -0000

With all the talk and speculation over the winter moves and the current state of our beloved Royals, I thought it might center us (and provide catharsis) if we all bowed our heads and took a moment of time to reflect on our favorite George Brett memories.

Mine . . . there are so many . . . but how about this one . . . at the beginning of July in 1990, as Brett's knees are giving out on him, members of the media are writing him off, and Brett's batting average is hovering at .256. The New York Yankees come to Royals Stadium for a 3-game-set. In the first game, Georgie goes 4-5 as they rout the Stankees 11-5, KC sweeps the series, and then Brett goes on to rip 40 hits over the next 24 games, including the famous "cycle-game" against Toronto on July 25th. The rest is history, as The Almighty George goes on to win the Batting Title.

I feel better . . . ok . . . we can talk about the '07 Royals again.