SB Nation User Blog: rp0806

Bedard trade possibilities

rp0806 — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 14:14:26 -0000

Here are my thoughts on the most likely Bedard trade possibilities. Keep in mind that I don't have any inside info -- these are based purely on my intuition and analysis. Listed below in no particular order:

(1) Bedard to Angels for Wood, Morales, and Weaver.

(2) Bedard to Angels for Wood, Morales, Willits, Saunders/Santana, Adenhart, and Mathis.

(3) Bedard and A. Reyes to Angels; Rasmus, Wood, Saunders/Santana and Morales to Orioles; Weaver and Willits to Cardinals.

(4) Bedard and Huff/Mora to Angels; Pie, Wood, Saunders/Santana, Cedeno and Morales to Orioles; Figgins to Cubs.

(5) Bedard, Roberts, Payton and Walker to Cubs for Pie, Marmol, Cedeno, Murton, Patterson, Gallagher, & minor league pitcher.

(6) Bedard to Mariners for Jones, Clement, and 2 other prospects.

(7) Bedard to Reds for Votto, Cueto, Stubbs, and 1-2 other prospects.

(8) Bedard to Mets for F. Martinez, C. Gomez, and 2-3 pitching prospects.

(9) Bedard to Red Sox for Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, and Anderson.

(10) Bedard to Yankees for Hughes, Cabrera, and Jackson.

The last three are probably the least likely. I don't particularly like the seattle deal. I guess my preference would be one of the three way deals with the Angels and Cubs or Cardinals.

Poll

Which deal do you like?

(9)

0 votes

(10)

1 votes

(1)

1 votes

(2)

2 votes

(3)

0 votes

(4)

6 votes

(5)

3 votes

(6)

11 votes

(7)

4 votes

(8)

0 votes

28 votes | Poll has closed

Why this team is frustrating

rp0806 — Wed, 18 Apr 2007 16:28:43 -0000

What really bugs me about this team is that it should be a pretty good team -- maybe not a playoff contender, but above average (85-86 wins) -- but I fear that the team's horrendous roster management and Perlozzo's horrendous in game decision making will cost us a bunch of games. IMO, the roster should look like this:

Hernandez C
Huff 1b, DH, 3b
Roberts 2b
Tejada SS
Mora 3b
Markakis RF
Patterson CF
Payton LF, CF
Millar DH
Knott DH, LF, 1b, PH
House/Dubois DH, PH
Bako C
Stern CF

Bedard SP
Cabrera SP
Loewen SP
Traschel SP
Burres SP

Williamson RP
Guthrie RP
Bradford RP
Parrish RP
Baez RP
Ray C

The most controversial change there is Gibbons. I'd trade him if we can get anything of value. If not, I guess he replaces House.

That's a pretty decent team, but I don't think we'll ever see it unless Perlozzo is canned.

Somewhat plausible scenario

rp0806 — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 18:05:17 -0000

Here's my somewhat plausible playoff contender scenario. Last year, the Orioles scored ~770 runs and gave up 900, and won 70 games. The offense was a bit below average and the pitching was horrible. The biggest problem with the offense was that they got absolutely no production out of LF and DH. With Huff, Payton, and Gibbons improving the offense from those positions, minor improvement from Markakis, and equal production (on balance) from everyone else, I think they can have a league average offense and score ~800 runs.

On the pitching side, last year the starters gave up 650 runs in 1000 innings. If EB/AL/DC can give the Orioles 600 innings of 4.00 pitching, and ST/JW/HP/GO can give them 400 innings of 5.00 pitching, the rotation will give up 500 runs. The bullpen last year gave up 250 runs in 420 innings, for a 5.4 ERA. If they can cut that to 200 runs, they'll have a 4.30 ERA, and the staff as a whole will give up 700 runs.

800 runs scored and 700 runs against works out to a .566 winning %, or a 92-70 record. Unrealistic? Probably. But it doesn't seem crazy.

The FO's supersecret plan to rebuild the Orioles

rp0806 — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 22:15:04 -0000

My source at the warehouse just told me about this (details below).

Tejada, R. Hernandez, and N. Reimold will be traded to the Angels for Santana, Wood, Kotchman, Napoli and Cabrera (salary dump).

Bedard and Roberts will be traded to the Mets for Milledge, A. Hernandez, P. Humber, and C. Gomez.

Ray and Penn will be traded to the DRays for R. Baldelli.

Corey Patterson will be traded to the Rockies for I. Stewart.

Lineup:
Milledge LF
Kotchman 1b
Markakis RF
Baldelli CF
Gibbons DH
Cabrera/Wood SS
Napoli/House C
Mora/Stewart 3B
Hernandez/Fahey 2b

Rotation:
Santana
Cabrera
Loewen
Humber
Wright

Ok, that's a bunch of bull. But that team would be a hell of a lot more fun to watch than the real orioles.

Garrett Olson vs. Matt Garza

rp0806 — Mon, 14 Aug 2006 17:25:20 -0000

Here's an interesting comparison:

Garrett Olson was born in the fall of 1983, and was drafted out of college last year. This is his age 22 season.

His overall stats in rookie, low A, high A, and double AA are:

196 IP, 167 H, 54 ER, 12 HR, 59 BB, 198 K, 2.48 ERA.

3.4 K/BB ratio, 9.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and .6 HRs/9.

Matt Garza was also born in the fall of 1983 and was also drafted out of college last year.

220 IP, 154 H, 60 ER, 14 HR, 53 BB, 243 K.

9.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, .57 HR/9, and a 2.45 ERA.

So Garza's rates are slightly better, and his ERA is basically identical. The big differences are that Olson has been pretty consistent, whereas Garza was just ok last year and totally dominant this year, and that some of Garza's #s are at AAA.

The point isn't that Olson is as good as Garza, but it's interesting that the comparison isn't ridiculous. I think Olson should be taken a bit more seriously as a prospect.

My master plan for the Orioles

rp0806 — Wed, 23 Nov 2005 19:18:40 -0000

I'm pretty tired of the Orioles' half-hearted attempts to rebuild over the last 8 years. I really like guys like Mora and Tejada, but maybe the Orioles should follow the Marlins lead and start from scratch. My suggestions are below:

IMO, only Bedard and Cabrera should be considered untouchable. Here's what I would try to do:

Tejada, Mora, C. Ray, J. Johnson & Haehnel to the Angels for Kotchman, Wood, Figgins, Weaver and Cabrera. Angels are giving up a lot of talent, but they're ridding themselves of Cabrera's contract and getting the best SS in baseball in return.
J. Lopez for B. McCann. McCann is expendable with Saltalammanchia coming up, and Lopez would give them decent production until he's ready.
Maine and Finch for S. Healy. Healy is blocked by Helton.
R. Lopez for J. Gathright.
B. Chen & J. Gibbons for W. M. Pena.
Sign Ryan, Byrd & Millwood.

Orioles lineup in 2006:

C McCann
1b Kotchman
2b Roberts
3b Figgins
SS Cabrera
RF Pena
CF Gathright
LF Markakis
DH Healy

Rotation:

Millwood
Bedard
Cabrera
Byrd
Weaver

Closer: Ryan
Set up: Britton, Rakers

That team would probably stink in 2006, but it would be in great shape for the future, esp. with Loewen, Penn, Olson, Reimold, et al coming up. Also, if Cabrera has a decent season and WOod seems ready, they could move him after 2006 for another prospect. If Cabrera continues to stink, make him the backup infielder.